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Masahiro Tanaka To Sign With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

By Nick Deeds | December 15, 2024 at 6:18pm CDT

Veteran right-hander Masahiro Tanaka has reached an agreement with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, per a report from Yahoo Japan (h/t to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). The terms of the deal are not yet clear, but it appears he’ll be joining a new NPB team for the first time in his lengthy career.

Tanaka, 36, has enjoyed a long and successful career between NPB and MLB. He made his debut with the Rakuten Golden Eagles at the age of 18 back in 2007, and after seven dominant seasons in NPB was posted for MLB clubs prior to the 2014 season. The right-hander instantly became one of the most sought-after players on the free agent market before eventually signing with the Yankees on a seven-year, $155MM deal. In 20 starts with New York during his first season in the majors, Tanaka posted an excellent 2.77 ERA (138 ERA+) with a 3.04 FIP en route to an All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Impressive as that debut season in the big leagues was, Tanaka eventually settled in as more of a solid mid-rotation arm with the Yankees than as a true ace. In his seven seasons with the club, the right-hander pitched to a 3.74 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.91 FIP in 1054 1/3 innings as a big leaguer. He made his second and final MLB All-Star appearance in 2019, and pitched to a solid 3.33 ERA in 54 postseason innings for the Yankees during his tenure with the club. His final year with the Yankees was abbreviated due to the 60-game pandemic-shortened campaign that took place in 2020, but Tanaka look solid in ten starts with a 3.56 ERA in 48 innings of work that stood as his best mark since 2016.

When he hit the free agent market ahead of his age-32 season, Tanaka was among the most well-regarded pitchers in the class. MLBTR ranked Tanaka as the #10 free agent in the class on that year’s edition of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, and the righty appeared to be a lock to remain in the majors as a quality mid-rotation veteran. As free agency played out, however, the Yankees turned their attention to retaining second baseman DJ LeMahieu. While Tanaka garnered at least some interest from other MLB clubs, he ultimately headed back home to Japan to pitch for Rakuten once again. At the time, Tanaka noted that his preference if he returned to Japan was a return to the Golden Eagles, though he also suggested he would be open to a deal with the Yomiuri Giants.

As it happens, it now appears he’ll be playing for the Giants after all, albeit only after a four-year pit stop with his original team. Tanaka’s second stint with Rakuten did not go quite as well as his first. He pitched to a 3.73 ERA in 463 innings of work in Pacific League play over the past four seasons, though he struck out just 17.5% of opponents in that time. That’s a far cry from the 27.8% clip he struck out opponents at for the Golden Eagles back in 2011, and it’s even several steps back from the career 23.1% strikeout rate that Tanaka posted during his seven seasons in the majors.

Despite those declining numbers, it appears that Yomiuri is willing to take a chance on the right-hander as their own longtime veteran, Tomoyuki Sugano, explores a possible jump to the major leagues. Tanaka made just one start for Rakuten’s Pacific League team in 2024, but he’s surely hoping to make more than that next season with his new club. The right-hander has gathered 197 career wins between NPB and MLB play to this point in his career, leaving him just three wins shy of a major milestone.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Transactions

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Phillies Considering Workload Reduction For J.T. Realmuto

By Nick Deeds | December 15, 2024 at 4:41pm CDT

Shortly after the team’s season came to an end, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated that veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto might see less time behind the plate in 2025 going forward. It wasn’t clear at the time what the specifics of that arrangement might look like, but Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer recently discussed the club’s plans regarding Realmuto in greater detail, relaying that manager Rob Thomson suggested this week that Realmuto’s performance may improve if he receives an extra day off per week during the season.

While Realmuto played just 99 games this season after undergoing knee surgery back in June, he averaged 135 games played per year from 2015 to 2023, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. While soon-to-be 34 year old has received occasional time at DH and even first base throughout his career, the overwhelming majority of his work has come behind the plate. That means he’s typically sat just once a week throughout his tenure behind the plate, a hefty workload for any backstop. Shifting to a schedule that sees him play something closer to five games per week with an extra day off would still leave Realmuto to play around 115 games per year, a workload comparable to those handled by Yankees rookie Austin Wells and Cubs youngster Miguel Amaya in 2024.

While 115 games per year wouldn’t light up the leaderboards among catchers in terms of volume, it’s worth noting that most catchers who rack up the playing time of a true everyday player see significant time at DH, first base, or another position on the diamond. Salvador Perez, for example, stepped up to the plate for the Royals in 158 games this year but was behind the plate for just 90 of those games. 115 games caught in 2024 would’ve been the eighth highest total in the majors and just 16 games behind Cal Raleigh, who led the league with 131 games caught.

Lauber notes Perez as an example of how scaling back defensive duties behind the dish can help aging catchers remain productive on offense. From 2015 to 2018, Perez hit just .252/.284/.448 (91 wRC+) while serving as the everyday catcher in Kansas City. After injury woes wiped out his 2019 season, Perez began to scale back his time behind the plate and has hit a far more robust .264/.309/.474 (109 wRC+) over the past four seasons. Given that Realmuto is a career 110 wRC+ hitter who has slashed an even more robust .264/.325/.455 (114 wRC+) over the past three seasons, it’s easy to imagine Realmuto’s bat being among the most impactful for his position in the game if he scaled back his catching duties.

With that being said, Lauber notes that the Phillies haven’t approached Realmuto regarding the possibility of more carefully managing his workload in 2025. That’s not the only thing the sides haven’t discussed, either; according to Lauber, the Phillies have yet to approach Realmuto about an extension despite the fact that he’s poised to reach free agency following the 2025 season. With that said, Lauber suggests that an extension could be discussed either later in the offseason or at some point during Spring Training. It was just last winter, after all, that the Phillies slow-played their extension talks with veteran ace Zack Wheeler despite clear interest in a deal from both sides. That deal wound up getting done in early March after months of rumors surrounding the possibility of extension talks.

Lauber speculates that a similar deal to the one Wheeler signed, which guaranteed him just three years at a record AAV, could make sense for both sides if the Phillies and Realmuto do pursue an extension. Catchers are risky long-term investments thanks to the physical toll the position takes on the body, and given that an especially lengthy deal seems somewhat unlikely. Even a three-year extension would guarantee Realmuto a contract through the end of his age-37 season, which would certainly carry some risk for Philadelphia given that 35-year-old Travis d’Arnaud was the only catcher to garner even 300 plate appearances at age-35 or older behind the plate this season. With that being said, next year’s class of free agent catchers figures to be relatively thin and the Phillies internal duo of Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan inspires little confidence as compared to the veteran, which could convince the club to roll the dice with Realmuto as he ages.

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Philadelphia Phillies J.T. Realmuto

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Latest On Yankees’ First Base Search

By Mark Polishuk | December 15, 2024 at 2:23pm CDT

The Yankees have been linked to such free-agent first baseman as Christian Walker and Pete Alonso this winter, and talks seemingly remain ongoing in some form with the Cubs about Cody Bellinger’s availability.  Recent reports suggest that the Yankees and Cubs are upwards of $10MM apart in deciding how much of Bellinger’s salary will be covered by Chicago, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes today that not much has changed in the stalemate between the two clubs.  As Heyman puts it, “it’s a matter of ’who blinks first,’ if ever.”

If none of these targets end up being a fit, the Yankees are “also considering” several other backup plans.  According to Heyman, these options include signing free agent Carlos Santana, or exploring a trade for the Guardians’ Josh Naylor or the Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe.  Given how Yankees GM Brian Cashman usually casts a wide berth in checking in on numerous players every offseason, it’s probably safe to guess that more than just these aforementioned first basemen have drawn some level of interest from New York.

Signing Santana would be the most straight-forward and cost-effective move of the bunch, as Santana will almost surely require just a one-year guarantee because he is entering his age-39 season.  Despite his age, Santana rebounded from a few middling seasons to post a .238/.328/.420 slash line and 23 home runs for the Twins over 594 plate appearances in 2024, while also winning the AL Gold Glove at first base.  The combination of offense and defense translated to 3.0 fWAR for Santana, the third-highest of his 15 Major League seasons.

This production will merit Santana a raise on the $5.25MM he received in his one-year deal with Minnesota last winter, but concerns over his age and possible regression will probably limit his salary.  Signing Santana would also be a relatively low-upside play, whereas trading for Naylor or Lowe represents a higher ceiling for production.

Trading for Lowe would also mean more than just a one-year commitment, as the first baseman is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Projected for a $10.7MM salary this year, Lowe is coming off another solid season that saw him hit .265/.361/.401 with 16 homers over 565 PA, and Lowe also delivered quality defense as a Gold Glove finalist behind Santana.

There was a little buzz about Lowe’s possible availability heading into the trade deadline last summer, but nothing in the way of concrete reports that Texas was seriously considering moving the 29-year-old.  In re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and trading for Jake Burger, the Rangers are certainly aiming to return to contention in 2025, but moving Lowe to address another need on the active roster is a plausible tactic.  Since the Rangers are known to be looking for left-handed hitting, however, however, dealing such a lefty swinger in Lowe would only serve to tilt the lineup further to the right.

Trading Naylor would also be an imperfect move for a Guardians team that needs offensive help, but Cleveland has typically looked maximize its return on notable players by trading them before they reach free agency.  Naylor is therefore a more clear-cut trade candidate than Lowe, and Naylor’s projected $12MM arbitration salary won’t break the bank.  While Lowe or the switch-hitting Santana would also be good fits hitting at Yankee Stadium, the short porch in right field seems taylor-made for Naylor’s left-handed power bat, and it is easy to imagine Naylor topping his career-best total of 31 homers (set in 2024) over a full season in the Bronx.

Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel are the likeliest candidates to step in at first base for the Guardians if Naylor is traded, though that is putting extra pressure on a pair of inexperienced players, plus the Guards would also need some extra first base/DH depth in that scenario.  Cleveland is also in need of outfield help, though the Yankees might not be a fit in that sense since they’re looking for outfielders themselves in the wake of Juan Soto’s departure.

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Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians New York Yankees Texas Rangers Carlos Santana Cody Bellinger Josh Naylor Nathaniel Lowe

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Rays Notes: Boyle, Springs Trade, Shortstop, Soto

By Mark Polishuk | December 15, 2024 at 12:44pm CDT

The Rays swung a prominent trade with the Athletics yesterday, bringing in three players and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in exchange for left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez.  Tampa president of baseball operations Erik Neander told MLB.com’s Adam Berry and other reporters that the decision to move Springs was “really, really difficult,” and that the trade was “a situation where the A’s really stepped forward and really wanted Jeffrey.”

On paper, it was widely assumed that the Rays would be dealing from their rotation depth this winter, with Springs and Zack Littell viewed as the likeliest trade candidates since they were the two highest-paid of the rotation candidates.  The surplus is still technically in place since they still have six starters (Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, and Littell) on the roster, plus now Joe Boyle acquired in the Springs trade.  Berry writes that that despite all these available arms, the Rays aren’t expected to trade any more starting pitching.

“Right now, we’re looking at more starters than we have rotation spots and kind of navigating the different ways to resolve that while also knowing you can never have enough,” Neander said.

Boyle has big league experience in the form of 63 2/3 innings with the A’s over the last two seasons, but of the seven potential starters, he seems like the clearest candidate to begin the season in Triple-A.  The hard-throwing Boyle has battled his control in both the major and minors, and Neander suggested that the Rays view him as a bit of a work in progress, with plenty of potential.

“Joe Boyle is somebody that has the physicality and the stuff to fit at the front of the rotation,” Neander said.  “I think there’s signs of progress on the strike-throwing, and he doesn’t need to be a sharpshooter to be really effective….The upside, I think, is something that warrants great patience when it comes to his development.”

Trading from the rotation depth was one of the top checkpoints on Tampa’s offseason to-do list, and it remains to be seen what else Neander has in store to upgrade the roster ahead of what will be an unconventional season at George M. Steinbrenner Field rather than Tropicana Field.  In terms of lineup help, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times feels the Rays will mostly look within their organization, but they could add outfield depth and the team is “at least open to a more offensive-oriented shortstop.”

Since Wander Franco’s time with the Rays is almost surely over, Taylor Walls is penciled in as the starting shortstop, and Walls is still looking for a breakout at the plate.  Over parts of four MLB seasons, Walls has hit only .188/.288/.293 over 1243 plate appearances — Walls’ 71 wRC+ is the fourth-lowest of any player with at least 1000 PA since Opening Day 2021.

What Walls brings to the table is glovework, though public defensive metrics aren’t unanimous in their approval of Walls’ work at shortstop.  The Outs Above Average metrics has given him negative grades in each of the last three seasons and he drew negative UZR/150 scores in 2022 and 2023 before a huge +15.3 UZR/150 last season.  The Defensive Runs Saved metric, meanwhile, has given Walls +35 DRS over his 1983 2/3 career innings at shortstop.

The Rays seem to lean more towards the DRS view, as Topkin notes that the club has a “fervid appreciation” for Walls’ glovework.  As such, a trade offer or free agent opportunity would have to pass “a high bar” to inspire Tampa Bay to reduce Walls’ playing time.  Any kind of acquisition at shortstop would also be a short-term add anyway, since top prospect Carson Williams could be in line to make his MLB debut at some point later in the 2025 season.

Still, Neander and his front office can never be ruled out for making a creative move.  We saw evidence of this in early November when reports indicated that the Rays were one of the many teams who had been in contact with Juan Soto at the opening of the free agent market.  The check-in was perhaps largely but due diligence, but Topkin reports that “the Rays pitched a short-term deal…supposedly with opt-outs after each season.”

It is probably safe to assume that this offer didn’t gain much traction within Soto’s camp, but there was no harm in floating a unique offer Soto’s way to see if there was any interest.  It was just last season that several other Scott Boras clients signed shorter-term, player option-heavy contracts after not finding the long-term deals they were hoping to land in free agency, though there was much less chance that Soto would come up short in his bid for a record-setting contract.

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Tampa Bay Rays Jeffrey Springs Joe Boyle Juan Soto Taylor Walls

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Pirates Acquire Enmanuel Valdez

By Mark Polishuk | December 15, 2024 at 10:35am CDT

The Pirates and Red Sox announced a trade that will see infielder Enmanuel Valdez head to Pittsburgh in exchange for right-hander Joe Vogatsky.  Valdez was designated for assignment by Boston earlier this week.

Valdez has appeared in 125 big league games since making his MLB debut with the Sox during the 2023 season.  A solid .266/.311/.453 slash in 149 plate appearances made a good first impression for Valdez in his rookie year, but he didn’t fare well with more playing time this past year, hitting only .214/.270/.363 in 223 plate appearances.

Of the whopping 11 players who were part of Boston’s revolving door at second base in 2024, Valdez had the most playing time, with 56 starts and 65 total appearances at the keystone.  Pittsburgh’s second-base situation is also far from settled, with Nick Gonzales penciled into a starting role for now, and Nick Yorke and Jared Triolo also fighting for at-bats.  Valdez is the only left-handed hitter among these other righty options, which could give him an opening for a platoon role.

Valdez figures to be part of this mix, though he has a smattering of MLB experience at third base, shortstop, and left field, and he has played all over the diamond in the minors.  This versatility will help Valdez’s chances of winning a job out of Spring Training, and his ability to handle third base might be particularly useful if Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to be bothered by back injuries.  Valdez has a minor league option year remaining, giving the Pirates the ability to use him as minor league depth if the 26-man roster is full.

Vogatsky (who turns 23 later this month) was a 19th-round pick for the Pirates in last summer’s amateur draft, and the right-hander has yet to begin his pro career.  A product of James Madison University, Vogatsky worked exclusively as a reliever in his last two college years, with much better results than his first two NCAA seasons.  This role change likely got Vogatsky drafted, and it seems likely that he’ll stick in the bullpen going forward.

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Boston Red Sox Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Enmanuel Valdez

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Details On Yankees’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

By Mark Polishuk | December 15, 2024 at 9:22am CDT

Before Kyle Tucker was traded from the Astros to the Cubs, the Yankees were known to be one of the teams also vying to land the star outfielder.  Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil was reportedly of interest to the Astros in these trade talks, but New York ultimately turned down Houston’s demand for Gil and infield prospect George Lombard Jr. in exchange for Tucker, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

It makes for an interesting contrast to the trade package that the Astros did accept from Chicago.  Lombard and prospect Cam Smith could be viewed as essentially a match as recent first-round draft picks, though Smith is higher regarded in the view of MLB Pipeline (Smith is 73rd on their top-100 prospect list and Lombard isn’t on the list).  Gil is a controllable pitcher who has already made a name for himself at the big league level, so Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski represent something of a split of those two resume points.  Wesneski is controlled through 2029 and has a solid 3.93 ERA over his 190 Major League innings, but he isn’t considered to have quite Gil’s ceiling, so making up that difference could’ve been achieved by adding a proven hitter like Paredes.

Landing three players instead of two obviously allowed the Astros to address more needs, as Paredes can help fill one of Houston’s corner infield vacancies and Wesneski brings rotation depth.  Gil would’ve been a more clear-cut installation into the Astros rotation and perhaps then necessitated another trade, since the Astros on paper have a surplus of rotation options.  However, since Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both returning from lengthy injury absences, the Astros might also want to see how things play out in Spring Training before dealing an arm, lest the club again get caught with a lack of depth in the rotation.

Interestingly, the Yankees did indeed trade a starting pitcher and an infield prospect for a prominent star player with one year remaining before free agency, except rather than Gil/Lombard for Tucker, it was Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin going to the Brewers for closer Devin Williams.  The two trade packages have some differences, of course, as Cortes is a year away from free agency, and was viewed a more expendable part of New York’s pitching mix since he was relegated to bullpen duty in the playoffs and was floated in trade rumors at the deadline.  Durbin is also over five years older than Lombard and is considered to be on the verge of his MLB debut, whereas Lombard has yet to reach even the Double-A level.

The timing of the negotiations between the Astros and Yankees was perhaps also a factor.  If the Yankees were already well down the road in talks with Milwaukee about Williams, that might’ve made the Bronx Bombers less likely to deplete their pitching and prospect depth even further by accepting the Astros’ offer for Tucker.  Some New York fans might well wonder “why not both?”, as even without Gil or Cortes, the Yankees still have a projected starting five of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and newly-signed frontline arm Max Fried.  Acquiring both Tucker and Williams would’ve left the Yankees still in search of infield help and now a “sixth starter” type of depth arm, but those are perhaps minor question marks compared to the upside of bringing both an All-Star outfielder and All-Star closer into the mix.

Gil is a known quantity to baseball fans, but the 19-year-old Lombard was the 26th overall pick of the 2023 draft.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Lombard as the third-best prospect in New York’s farm system, viewing him as a very solid all-around player with five-tool potential, even if he perhaps lacks a true plus-plus calling card.  Lombard has played mostly shortstop in the minors and evaluators feel he can stick at the position, but he has also seen time at second and third base.  Lombard’s approach and overall hitting potential are both considered good, though he hit only .231/.338/.334 over 497 combined plate appearances with A-level Tampa and high-A Hudson Valley in 2024.

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Houston Astros New York Yankees George Lombard Jr. Kyle Tucker Luis Gil

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NPB’s Chunichi Dragons Sign Kyle Muller

By Mark Polishuk | December 15, 2024 at 7:46am CDT

The Chunichi Dragons have signed left-hander Kyle Muller, according to multiple reports out of Japan.  Muller elected free agency after he was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he’ll now explore a new chapter of his career in Nippon Professional Baseball.

A second-round pick for the Braves in the 2016 draft, Muller was a regular on Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect lists during his time in Atlanta’s farm system, though his numbers in the minors were more solid than dominant.  Muller made his MLB debut in 2021 and posted a 5.14 ERA across 12 games and 49 innings with Atlanta in 2021-22 before the Braves sent him to the A’s as part of the three-team trade in December 2022 that saw Sean Murphy wind up in Atlanta.

Given a greater opportunity to start in Oakland, Muller posted a rough 7.60 ERA in 77 innings in 2023, losing his rotation job in the wake of his struggles.  The southpaw was used only as a reliever in 2024 and posted a 4.01 ERA and five percent walk rate over 49 1/3 innings, with the improved control a big step forward given how walks had been a major issue for Muller in his previous big league work.  Never much of a strikeout pitcher, Muller’s 17.8% strikeout rate in 2024 almost exactly matched his 17.9% career mark.

Since Muller is out of minor league options, the Athletics had to designate him for assignment and then outright him a first time in August.  The lack of option years will be an obstacle for Muller going forward in terms of North American baseball, and if perhaps faced with a 2025 season spent bouncing around DFA limbo and the waiver wire, pitching for the Dragons on a guaranteed deal probably carried extra appeal.  Muller is still only 27, so there’s plenty of time for a potential return to the majors if he pitches well in NPB.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Transactions Kyle Muller

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Athletics Acquire Jeffrey Springs In Multi-Player Trade With Rays

By Mark Polishuk | December 14, 2024 at 11:00pm CDT

The Athletics and Rays have announced a multi-player trade that will see left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez head to West Sacramento.  In return, the Rays will receive right-hander Joe Boyle, the Athletics’ pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2025 draft, and two minor league players in righty Jacob Watters and first baseman/outfielder Will Simpson.

Considering how deep the Rays are in rotation options, Springs was viewed as a logical trade candidate this winter, as he was about to enter the more expensive portion of the backloaded four-year, $31MM extension he signed with Tampa in January 2023.  Springs is owed $10.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and there is a $15MM club option on his services for 2027 that can be bought out for $750K.

For the first two years and $9.25MM on that extension, the Rays only 49 innings of work from Springs, albeit with a 2.39 ERA.  A Tommy John surgery in April 2023 shelved Springs for the majority of the last two seasons, and he returned to the mound last July to post a 3.27 ERA over seven starts and 33 innings before he was shut down in early September due to fatigue in his throwing elbow.  It’s hard to gain much data from a small sample size, but Springs still had above-average strikeout and walk rate, and if anything might’ve gotten better bottom-line results if it wasn’t for a .330 BABIP.

Prior to the injury, Springs seemed like yet another success story for Tampa Bay’s pitching development system.  A 30th-round draft pick for the Rangers in the 2015 draft, Springs showed only a few flashes of quality over his first three MLB seasons while posting a 5.42 ERA in 84 2/3 innings with Texas and Boston.  Dealt from the Red Sox to the Rays in a relatively under-the-radar trade in February 2021, Springs emerged to post a 3.43 ERA in 44 2/3 bullpen innings for Tampa during the 2021 season, and he then had even better results after transitioning into a starting role in 2022.  The breakout year saw Springs deliver a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings (as well as a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate) as Springs finally seemed to avoid the home run problems that plagued most of his career.

Springs was able to cash in on his big season with a life-changing contract extension, but his long injury layoff turned him into an odd man out of the Rays’ rotation.  Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Zack Littell, and Drew Rasmussen are all lined up to get starts in 2025, not to mention whatever other young starters could emerge from Tampa’s ever-loaded farm system.  With Springs’ price tag rising, many figured that the Rays would move his salary to a pitching-needy team with payroll space to spare.

If the idea of the Athletics being a “team with payroll space to spare” is still surprising to consider, the 32-year-old Springs is now the second splurge the A’s have made on their rotation this winter, after having already signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67MM deal.  Adding Springs’ contract brings the A’s a step closer to the minimum $105MM luxury tax figure required to continue qualifying as a revenue-sharing team, and to avoid a grievance from the players’ union.  RosterResource estimates the Athletics’ current tax number at roughly $88.55MM, assuming the trade is completed.

Ulterior motive notwithstanding, trading for Springs is also a solid baseball move for an A’s team in need of rotation help.  Severino and Springs are big upgrades to a rotation that struggled badly last season, and the newcomers now stand as the top two members of the starting five that includes JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes.

More pitching moves can’t be ruled out, since the Athletics still have a ways to go before hitting that $105MM figure.  Severino notwithstanding, it can’t be an easy sell for the A’s to convince free agents to pitch in a minor league ballpark in West Sacramento, so trading for players (perhaps on unwanted contracts) has long seemed like a more logical move for the Athletics to both add payroll and bolster their roster at the same time.

Lopez shouldn’t be ruled out as part of the Athletics’ pitching situation in 2025, as the southpaw has already amassed 22 2/3 MLB innings with the Rays over the last two seasons.  A 26th-round pick for the Giants in the 2018 draft, Lopez missed all of 2022 recovering from a Tommy John surgery, but he has a 2.99 ERA across 337 2/3 career minor league innings.  That includes a 3.54 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, and 12.87% walk rate in 168 innings of Triple-A ball, with Lopez starting 37 of 39 games for the Rays’ top affiliate.

Despite a lack of velocity, Lopez has been able to miss quite a few bats, though this ability hasn’t manifested itself in his brief time in the majors.  It could be that Lopez might’ve gotten more big league looks if he’d simply been on a team that didn’t have Tampa Bay’s pitching depth, and a fresh opportunity now presents itself for Lopez with this trade.  Lopez (who turns 27 in March) figures to be part of the fifth starter competition in camp but will probably begin the year at Triple-A, acting as one of the first depth options in the event of an injury to a rotation member.

Turning to the Rays’ end of the trade, the inclusion of the Comp-A pick is particularly interesting, and it might speak to the league-wide interest in Springs’ services.  The Competitive Balance Rounds are bonus rounds within the draft that award picks to 15 teams within the bottom 10 in market size and revenue, as determined by the league’s formula that factors in revenue, winning percentage and market score.  The CBR picks are the only draft selections that are eligible to be traded, and while such trades tend to be rare, we’ve seen these picks involved in some prominent trades over the years.  The Comp-A round takes place just before the start of the second round, and while the exact placement of the traded pick has yet to be determined, last year’s Comp-A picks were selections #34-39 in the 2024 draft order.

It is no small thing for a team to deal such a pick, especially when building through the draft is of particular importance to a low-spending team like the A’s.  Still, getting at least two years of control over Springs was apparently worth the cost, as with the club option, the Athletics could have Springs for the entirety of their three-year stint in Sacramento before their planned new ballpark in Las Vegas is ready for Opening Day 2028.

As for the other parts of the trade package, Boyle brings a Major League-ready arm to the Rays’ pitching mix.  Debuting with a 1.69 ERA in three starts and 16 innings in 2023, Boyle had a 6.42 ERA in 47 2/3 innings this past season, missing about a month of action with a back strain and spending the bulk of the year at Triple-A.

The 25-year-old is something of a classic case of a hard-throwing (97.7mph average fastball velocity in the majors) pitcher who can’t harness his stuff, as Boyle has posted elevated walk totals in the minors and during his 2024 stint in the Show.  Fixing these control problems will determine whether or not Boyle can stick in the big leagues as a reliever or back-end starter, and given the Rays’ history of fixing pitchers, nobody would be surprised if Boyle ends up figuring it out in Tampa just as Springs and many other hurlers have done over the years.  Boyle has two minor league options remaining, giving the Rays more flexibility in using him as a fresh arm to shuttle back and forth between Triple-A and the active roster.

Baseball America ranked Simpson 16th on their ranking of the Athletics’ top 30 prospects back in April, while MLB Pipeline has Simpson 28th in their evaluation of the team’s system.  A 15th-round pick in the 2023 draft, Simpson has crushed minor league pitching in his two pro seasons and made it to the Double-A level for 18 games in 2024.  Simpson has shown some good pop in his bat and he has a good approach at the plate — scouts like his “analytical aptitude,” as BA’s scouting report puts it, with the idea that Simpson can still unlock more as he explores more ways to upgrade his hitting.  Defensively, Pipeline is more bullish on the idea of Simpson as a serviceable first baseman or corner outfielder, while Baseball America is more down on his glovework in general.

Watters was a fourth-round pick for the A’s in the 2022 draft, and he has a 5.86 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, and an inflated 13.73% walk rate in 152 pro innings.  Almost all of this experience is at the high-A level, though Watters skipped Double-A to make one spot appearance in Triple-A ball last season.  Working as both a starter and reliever, Watters’ numbers have been decidedly better out of the pen, so that might be the 23-year-old’s eventual career path.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) reported the trade and all of the players and picks involved except for Lopez, whose involvement wasn’t revealed until the deal was officially announced. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Newsstand Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Jacob Lopez Jeffrey Springs Joe Boyle Will Simpson

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Patrick Wisdom To Sign With KBO’s Kia Tigers

By Nick Deeds | December 14, 2024 at 10:54pm CDT

Infielder Patrick Wisdom has reached an agreement with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, as noted by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. Yoo notes that the deal is currently pending a physical. The Naranjeros de Hermosillo, for whom Wisdom had been playing in the Mexican Pacific Winter League, announced earlier today that they’ve removed Wisdom from their roster in deference to the wishes of his new club after the sides agreed to a deal.

Wisdom, 33, was a first-round pick by St. Louis back in 2012 but but didn’t make his big league debut until 2018. After making it into just 43 games across three seasons in the majors with the Cardinals, Rangers, and Cubs, he settled into a regular role with Chicago during the 2021 season. As a 29-year-old rookie that year, Wisdom took over the everyday third base job from outgoing star Kris Bryant and performed admirably in the role. He hit .231/.305/.518 (117 wRC+) despite an eye-popping 40.8% strikeout rate thanks to 28 homers in just 375 trips to the plate and earned himself a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting.

That success Wisdom found in his rookie season suggested he might have a future in the majors if he managed to cut down on the strikeouts a bit, and he did that over the next two seasons. In 2022 and ’23, Wisdom hit a combined .206/.295/.453 (108 wRC+) with a 35.2% strikeout rate and 48 homers in 836 trips to the plate. By the end of the 2023 season, Wisdom had generally ceded his everyday role in the lineup to a combination of Nick Madrigal, Christopher Morel, and deadline addition Jeimer Candelario, and he headed into the 2024 season projecting as a bench bat for Chicago.

His time on the bench with the Cubs did not go especially well, as Wisdom posted his worst season since getting an extended look in the majors back in 2021. He stepped up to the plate 174 times in 75 games with Chicago this year and hit just .171/.237/.392 (75 wRC+). While his strikeout rate ticked down to “just” 33.9%, Wisdom struggled to generate his trademark power with just eight home runs this year, and his walk rate suffered as he took a free base just 5.7% of the time. That steep decline in production in conjunction with Wisdom’s ever-shrinking role on the team led the Cubs to non-tender him last month, at which point he joined the free agent market.

Now, it appears he’ll head overseas to test his abilities in KBO league play, which is notoriously devoid of high-end power hitters. Former big league Matt Davidson led the league with 46 home runs last year and sported a high-power, strikeout-heavy profile similar to Wisdom during his time in the majors, so it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that Wisdom winds up doing quite well for himself as part of a Tigers offense that already led the KBO league in slugging percentage this past season.

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Korea Baseball Organization Transactions Patrick Wisdom

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Latest On Jack Flaherty’s Market

By Nick Deeds | December 14, 2024 at 10:20pm CDT

Right-hander Jack Flaherty signed a pillow contract with the Tigers last winter, and it went just about as well as anyone could’ve reasonably hoped. The right-hander dominated to the tune of a 3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers and ended in Flaherty hoisting the World Series trophy alongside his teammates in Los Angeles. Now, he’s back on the free agent market and in line for a much more lucrative deal than the $14MM guarantee he landed from Detroit last winter. While the majority of the baseball world has been focused on Corbin Burnes in the days following the Winter Meetings when considering the free agent market for starting pitchers, this evening saw Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discuss where Flaherty’s market currently stands.

One possibility Rosenthal suggests could be on the table for Flaherty is a reunion with Baltimore. That’s not exactly a surprise, given that a report from Rosenthal himself last week indicated that Baltimore is reluctant to pursue starting pitchers from other clubs encumbered by the Qualifying Offer, who would therefore require the Orioles to forfeit draft capital in order to be signed. While the Orioles’ top target has long been considered to be Burnes, who finished fifth in AL Cy Young award voting during his lone season with Baltimore this past year, Rosenthal suggests that Flaherty stands out as a “fallback option” for the Orioles should they fail to reunite with their current ace.

While Flaherty struggled in his previous stint with Baltimore, which came down the stretch in 2023 and saw him post an ugly 6.75 ERA across 34 2/3 innings of work, Rosenthal notes that Orioles brass understood Flaherty was gassed amid his first full, 162-game season on the mound since 2019. With other top free agents unencumbered by the QO like Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, and Nathan Eovaldi all already off the board, Flaherty stands out as by far the top pitcher available on the free agent market who isn’t attached to the QO. That’s a big reason why MLBTR predicted a five-year, $115MM deal for the right-hander as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked eighth.

One other potential player in Flaherty’s market Rosenthal mentions is the Red Sox. While it’s unclear how interested Boston is in Flaherty at the moment, Rosenthal reports that the club “liked” the righty last winter before he signed in Detroit. Naturally, it will take a far more significant financial commitment to land Flaherty this winter than it would’ve last year. That shouldn’t be a problem for Boston, however, as they’ve been heavily involved in the bidding for top free agents such as Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Alex Bregman this winter and reportedly remain in the market for rotation help even after landing ace lefty Garrett Crochet in a trade with the White Sox earlier this week. A rotation fronted by a trio of Crochet, Flaherty, and Tanner Houck would surely be an enticing possibility for the Red Sox, and it’s easy to imagine them having interest in Flaherty if they have money leftover once the sweepstakes for Bregman and Burnes come to an end.

Aside from the Orioles and Red Sox, a handful of teams have been connected to Flaherty so far this winter. The Mets have previously been connected to Flaherty and have at least one opening in a rotation that could use a clear impact starter to pair with Kodai Senga. The Cubs made a big splash to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros yesterday and have remaining involved in the rotation market even after signing Matthew Boyd earlier this winter, though their interest in Flaherty is reportedly dependent on his price tag. The Tigers also apparently have at least some interest in a reunion with Flaherty, though it’s unclear if they’d be willing to outbid other top contenders and have since added veteran righty Alex Cobb to their starting staff.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Jack Flaherty

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