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Cubs Sign Carson Kelly

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The Cubs finalized a two-year free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly on Friday evening. The CAA client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the chance to earn another $500K annually via incentives. Kelly will make $5MM salaries in each of the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option for 2027. He’d trigger a $250K bonus for starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already had a 40-man roster vacancy after dealing two roster players in this afternoon’s Kyle Tucker trade.

Kelly was the top unsigned catcher. The thin market has moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have all gotten MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in securing a second guaranteed year and exceeding the $10MM mark.

The righty-swinging backstop had a nice year in 2024. Kelly started the season particularly well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 trips to the plate for the Tigers. Detroit dealt him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a contender, but the Rangers sputtered while the Tigers made a surprise playoff push in the final couple months. Kelly’s bat tailed off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers over 31 games as a Ranger.

That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 slash line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a part-time catcher. Statcast graded him positively for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. While Kelly’s raw arm strength was middle of the pack, he cut down an above-average 26.3% of basestealers.

That was a rebound after Kelly had consecutive poor offensive showings in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly had intermittently shown the upside to be a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. He has since settled in as a quality part-time player.

That’s the role he should play in Chicago. The Cubs can somewhat evenly divide playing time between Kelly and 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. A former top prospect, Amaya struggled early in the year before going on a tear in the final two months of the season. He ended the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough for the Cubs to forego the catching market entirely, yet it lessened their urgency to entertain trading from the top of the farm system for a clear starter.

Kelly’s salary bumps Chicago’s projected payroll to roughly $199MM, according to the calculations at RosterResource. The $5.75MM average annual value pushes their estimated competitive balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them around $25MM below the base luxury tax threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the presence of the ’27 mutual option and the potential $500K in annual incentives. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic had the salary breakdown and specifics on the bonuses. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees, Wilking Rodríguez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees and right-hander Wilking Rodríguez have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The righty will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training as well.

The Yanks previously signed Rodríguez to a minor league deal in August of 2022. He had been pitching for Tecolotes de los Dos Laredos in the Mexican League that year, posting a 2.01 earned run average over 44 2/3 innings. He struck out 43.2% of batters faced for that club, limiting walks to a 7.7% clip.

That intrigued the Yankees but evidently also the Cardinals. The Cards took Rodríguez in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, a surprising pick since the righty was going into his age-33 season and most Rule 5 picks are guys in their 20s still looking to make their major league debuts. Rodríguez had been in the majors long before, throwing two innings for the Royals in 2014 before spending years away from affiliated ball.

The unorthodox pick didn’t work for the Cards, as Rodríguez required shoulder surgery and spent the entire 2023 season on the injured list. He was outrighted off the roster after that campaign and then re-signed with the Cards on a minor league deal. He spent most of 2024 on the minor league IL and only made 13 appearances.

Though it’s been a rough couple of years, Leighton relays that Rodríguez has been pitching in winter ball of late and hitting 97 miles per hour on his fastball. The Yankees were clearly interested in him a couple of years ago and have circled back to him now that he has perhaps gotten over his injury woes.

The Yankees made a big bullpen addition today by acquiring Devin Williams from the Brewers but all clubs need to reach into their non-roster pitching depth throughout a long season as injuries are inevitable.

Blue Jays Designate Nick Raposo For Assignment

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The Blue Jays officially announced their contract with right-hander Yimi García. To open a 40-man roster spot, catcher Nick Raposo has been designated for assignment, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Raposo, 27 in June, has only been with the Blue Jays for a few months. He was designated for assignment by the Cardinals when that club acquired Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham ahead of the trade deadline, with the Jays grabbing Raposo off waivers.

The backstop was added to the St. Louis roster in June but never got to make his major league debut. An undrafted free agent in 2020, he signed with the Cards thereafter and has been a depth catcher for them. He has hit .241/.321/.387 in 219 minor league games over the past four years.

Raposo has never really been on the rader of prospect evaluators. He got a roster spot with the Cards while both Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera were on the injured list. The Jays put in a claim to add some depth after trading Danny Jansen to the Red Sox last year. Now that Raposo has been bumped off the 40-man, the Jays will have a week to either trade him or pass him through waivers.

The Jays are now down to just two catchers on the 40-man roster in Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman. They could perhaps add someone later this offseason, though Heineman is out of options. Perhaps they will look to add some non-roster depth by signing veteran to a minor league deal, though Raposo could also provide some of that depth if he clears waivers and is outrighted to Triple-A.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Yimi García

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed right-hander Yimi García to a two-year contract. It’s a $15MM deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The 34-year-old is represented by the Nova Sports Agency.

The last time García was a free agent, he also signed with the Jays. Going into the 2022 season, he and the Jays agreed to a two-year deal with an $11MM guarantee, with that deal also having a club/vesting option for 2024.

At that time, García had just finished a strong three-year run split between the Dodgers, Marlins and Astros. He tossed 135 innings over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, allowing 3.53 earned runs per nine. He struck out 26.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 6.8% clip.

His first two years with the Jays saw him continue to pitch in roughly the same manner. He tossed 127 innings over 2022 and 2023 with a 3.61 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He racked up four saves and 41 holds for the Jays in that time and also vested his $6MM option along the way.

2024 was a bit of a mixed bag. García came out strong with a 0.47 ERA through his 19 innings, punching out 35.3% of batters faced. He even racked up five saves while closer Jordan Romano was battling injuries this year.

But García allowed seven earned runs in his next nine innings and then landed on the injured list in mid-June due to right elbow ulnar neuritis. He was activated from the IL in mid-July and traded to the Mariners shortly thereafter, with outfielder Jonatan Clase and catcher Jacob Sharp coming back the other way. He was only able to toss nine innings for Seattle down the stretch due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.

There’s clearly a bit of injury risk with García not pitching much in the second half of 2024, but the Jays know García well after spending most of the past three years with him. They clearly like the fit and have brought him back, now having received two younger players for the brief few months that they were apart from him.

Remaking the bullpen is a clear priority for the Jays, as the relief group fell apart in 2024 and was a key reason for their rough season. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA in 2024, a mark that was worse than all clubs except for the Rockies. They cut ties with their long-time closer when they declined to tender Romano a contract for his final arbitration season and Romano has now signed with the Phillies. They also non-tendered Génesis Cabrera, who then signed a minor league deal with the Mets.

García should jump into the mix for leverage work in the Toronto bullpen alongside guys like Chad Green and Erik Swanson, though the Jays will likely make other bullpen moves before the offseason is done, with several free agents on their radar.

RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number at $210MM, which is $31MM below the base threshold of the tax. The Jays were over the line for much of the 2024 season but they are believed to have ducked under via their midseason selloff, which included García. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club should be working with similar financial parameters in 2025 so perhaps they would be willing to cross the tax line again in the coming season. They were heavily involved in the Juan Soto bidding but missed out there and now appear to be pivoting to other targets such as Max Fried and Corbin Burnes.

Giants Notes: Payroll, Goldschmidt, Wade

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It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.

That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.

If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.

The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.

Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.

Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.

Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.

The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.

With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.

There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.

Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.

For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.

Blue Jays, Eric Lauer Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays agreed to a minor league deal with left-hander Eric Lauer, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The CAA client will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet adds that if Lauer makes the big league roster, he would earn a $2.2MM base salary with additional incentives based on innings pitched and games started.

Lauer, 29, was a first-round pick by the Padres in 2016 and has had solid seasons both in San Diego and particularly in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired Lauer and Luis Urias in the 2019 trade sending Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres. In the first two seasons of his career, Lauer logged a 4.40 ERA in 261 2/3 innings with the Padres. He was hit hard in his 2020 debut for Milwaukee but looked to be on the cusp of a full-fledged breakout with the Brewers in 2021-22.

In 2021, Lauer added a slider to his repertoire midway through the season and went on an absolute tear to close out the year. Over his final 80 2/3 frames, he pitched to a sparkling 2.23 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. He came roaring out of the gates with a 2.38 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in his first 10 starts of the 2022 campaign as well. Lauer hit a rough patch early in the summer and had some uneven results leading up to a season-ending placement on the injured list due to elbow inflammation in September but still ended the year with a solid 3.69 ERA in 158 2/3 innings.

Injury problems persisted for Lauer in 2023. He lost more than two miles per hour off his fastball early in the season, posted a 5.48 ERA through late May and wound up on the injured list for the bulk of the season due to a shoulder impingement. Lauer split the 2024 season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Pirates and Astros before heading overseas to pitch for the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kia Tigers down the stretch. He was hit hard at all three stops, with an ERA approaching or in excess of 5.00 as a member of each team.

It’s been a few years since Lauer looked to be solidifying himself as a high-quality big league starter. He’s dealt with elbow and shoulder injuries along the way and has yet to regain his form. However, on a no-risk non-roster deal, there’s little harm in taking a look at a former first-rounder who had some legitimate big league success prior to a run of poor health. If the Jays can get him back on track, Lauer has 4.111 years of big league service, meaning he’d be controllable for multiple seasons.

Anthony Santander Reportedly Seeking Five-Year Deal

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Free agent slugger Anthony Santander is one of the top power bats on the market this winter and has drawn interest from a wide array of suitors, including the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Santander is also of interest to the Yankees, now that Juan Soto is in Queens, and adds that the longtime Orioles slugger is seeking a five-year contract in free agency.

The switch-hitting Santander is coming off a career year in which he belted a personal-best 44 home runs. He’s heading into his age-30 season and doing so on the heels of a .235/.308/.506 batting line (129 wRC+). Santander doesn’t hit for much average and typically carries a pedestrian (at best) walk rate, but he’s been a consistent source of power for the O’s in recent seasons. Dating back to 2020, the former Rule 5 pick is a .245/.312/.476 hitter with 134 home runs, a 7.8% walk rate and a 20.6% strikeout rate. This past season’s 8.7% walk rate was the best of Santander’s career, while his 19.4% strikeout rate was his second-lowest in a full 162-game season.

Defensively, Santander hasn’t generated particularly strong reviews in recent seasons, but his work in 2024 drew harsher grades than usual. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -7, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average was at -2. Santander’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, sat in just the 18th percentile of big league players this past season (26.0 ft/sec). His raw arm strength was better than average, but Statcast still pegged his throwing value as well below average, likely suggesting some inaccurate and/or ill-advised throws.

Historically speaking, there’s some precedent for this skill set — defensively limited, corner-only slugger — still landing a five-year pact. Nick Castellanos comes to mind as the most recent example, having inked a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies just three winters ago. That same offseason saw Kyle Schwarber sign for four years and $79MM with the Phils. Prior to that, J.D. Martinez landed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox to serve as a full-time DH.

Each of Castellanos (140 wRC+), Schwarber (145) and especially Martinez (170) were coming off superior offensive seasons in free agency, however. Of the three, only Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer. Neither Schwarber nor Martinez were eligible for qualifying offers when they reached free agency, as both were traded during their respective walk years — Martinez from Detroit to Arizona, and Schwarber from Washington to Boston.

All of those reasons factored into MLBTR’s decision to “only” predict a four-year deal worth $20MM per season for Santander at the outset of free agency. Of course, in the six weeks since our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings were published, the market has proven to be the most aggressive in recent memory. While the position player market hasn’t yet to fully take shape beyond Juan Soto’s expectation-shattering $765MM contract, it’s been a bull market for starting pitching. Whether that will carry over to the offensive side of the market remains unclear, but Santander appears well positioned to cash in.

The Yankees, who were spurned by Soto, have already spent a stunning $218MM on Max Fried and just earlier today acquired Devin Williams from the Brewers. They still have a hole in right field, however, and while Santander wouldn’t make up for all of the lost production from Soto, “Tony Taters” would offer comparable home run power (with lower averages and dramatically lower on-base skills). Similarly, the Blue Jays have been trying to make a splash to upgrade their lineup but came up empty in their Soto bid. The Red Sox don’t need another corner bat at the moment, but if they deal from their stock of outfielders to acquire additional starting pitching, that calculus could change. Other teams seeking middle-of-the-order bats include the Nationals, Tigers and Dodgers, among others.

Santander’s market is in many ways linked to that of Teoscar Hernandez, a similarly powered-up bat with defensive questions and a rejected qualifying offer hanging over his head. Hernandez is two years older and thus seems likely to sign a shorter deal, but he could still land three or perhaps even four years if the market is strong enough.

Red Sox Could Consider Michael Fulmer For Starting Rotation

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The Red Sox are exploring all avenues when it comes to strengthening their rotation. After trading for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Boston is still looking into both the trade and free markets for starting pitching. Not only that, but it sounds like they might be considering at least one creative internal option, too.

Speaking to reporters at the Winter Meetings, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested Michael Fulmer could potentially start for the Red Sox in 2025 (per Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Why is that surprising? The veteran right-hander, who is recovering from UCL surgery, has not pitched since 2023. More to the point, he has not been a regular starter since the 2020 season. He has not thrown more than five innings in an outing since September 2018.

Fulmer, 32 in March, was a sturdy starting pitcher over his first three MLB seasons. He won AL Rookie of the Year honors with the Tigers in 2016 and earned an All-Star selection the following year. Overall, from 2016-18, he made 75 starts, tossing 456 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 4.32 SIERA. Unfortunately, a history of elbow issues came to a head in 2019, when Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the entire season. When he returned in 2020, he was utterly disastrous. His velocity was down, and he pitched to an 8.78 ERA and 5.58 SIERA over 10 starts. It was hardly surprising when Detroit moved him to the bullpen in 2021.

On the bright side, Fulmer was an effective, if not especially dominant, reliever from 2021-23. Over 172 appearances out of the bullpen with the Tigers, Twins, and Cubs, he pitched to a 3.43 ERA and 3.71 SIERA, racking up 19 saves and 45 holds. Never a big strikeout arm during his years as a starter, he struck out more than a quarter of the batters he faced in relief. That said, his most important skill was his ability to limit hard contact and home runs.

At the end of the 2023 season, his elbow trouble reared its ugly head once more. Fulmer underwent UCL revision surgery in October that would keep him on the shelf for at least a year. He then signed a two-year minor league contract with the Red Sox and spent the 2024 season rehabbing with the organization. Until recently, there had been very little news regarding his progress. In October, he told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link) that he was trending toward a return for spring training. Then, earlier this week, Breslow provided a similarly positive update, “There’s certainly a pretty clear path to [Fulmler] being ready for Opening Day.”

If Fulmer is healthy and ready to pitch this spring, the Red Sox will try to stretch him out. That could mean building him up for a role in the rotation. However, if that proves to be too ambitious, he could be a multi-inning arm out of the bullpen instead. Interestingly, that’s a role he has never really played before. As a former starter, he presumably has the skills for long relief. Yet, when he was a regular reliever from 2021-23, Fulmer threw 175 2/3 frames over 172 appearances. That’s an average of just over one inning per game. Even so, the Red Sox have faith in Fulmer to take on some sort of bulk role. Breslow suggested that’s why they targetted him in the first place, saying “He’s a guy we actually signed with an eye on — once he’s completely healthy — building him out, whether that’s as a starting pitcher or someone who can handle bulk, leverage innings.”

Cotillo notes that Fulmer will earn $1.5MM if he is on Boston’s roster in 2025. He can also earn another $500K in incentives.

As things stand, the Red Sox have four seeming locks for their Opening Day rotation: Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. Barring a setback in his recovery from internal brace surgery, Lucas Giolito will also join the rotation at some point in the year. However, it’s not yet clear if he’ll be ready by the beginning of the year. Behind those five on the depth chart are Richard Fitts, who has just four MLB starts under his belt, and Cooper Criswell, who was solid but not especially impressive over 99 1/3 innings in 2024. Thus, it’s not hard to see why the Red Sox remain active in their pursuit of pitching, whether it be a more significant addition or a depth move. Transitioning Fulmer to the rotation falls into the latter category. He is unlikely to be a particularly impactful arm – that would explain why no other team selected him in the Rule 5 draft– but there’s no such thing as too much pitching depth.

Pirates Exploring Corner Outfield, Bullpen Markets

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The Pirates checked an item off their offseason to-do list when they acquired Spencer Horwitz in hopes that he can serve as a long-term option at first base. They’re still not done hunting for bats, however, as Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports within a broad-reaching piece on several Winter Meetings takeaways that the team is looking for a corner outfielder, with a likely preference to operate on the trade market. The Bucs will also likely be in the market for a low-cost reliever or two, Hiles adds.

Corner outfield help isn’t a new need for the Pirates. They sought to address the issue with their deadline acquisition of Bryan De La Cruz from the Marlins, but he turned in a disastrous .200/.220/.294 slash in 44 games with Pittsburgh following the trade. The Pirates chose not to double down on an acquisition they’d come to regret, non-tendering De La Cruz rather than paying him a projected $4MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

With De La Cruz now on the open market, the Pirates’ outfield alignment includes Bryan Reynolds in left and converted shortstop Oneil Cruz in center field. Right field options include Joshua Palacios, Billy Cook and Jack Suwinski, the latter of whom looked to have broken out as a key bat for the Pirates in 2023 before struggling through a disastrous 2024 season (.182/.264/.324 in 277 plate appearances). There’s been some talk of Reynolds logging some reps at first base (link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com), but the Horwitz trade pretty clearly indicates that’s at best a backup plan for the time being.

Cruz will be getting the lion’s share of reps in center field. Reynolds can technically play either corner, though his once-premium range has eroded substantially. Reynolds still posted better-than-average sprint speed in 2024, per Statcast, but his reaction times and jumps in the outfield graded quite poorly. As recently as 2021, Statcast credited Reynolds with 98th-percentile range in the outfield; in 2024, he was at the very bottom of the league, in the first percentile. His arm strength on his outfield throws actually ticked back up after a down year in 2023, but he’ll need to make some adjustments regardless of which corner he roams (though it’ll presumably be left, based on recent usage).

There are a handful of known and obvious corner outfield trade candidates on the market. Pittsburgh was never going to pony up for Kyle Tucker, who just went to the Cubs, as ownership wouldn’t be willing to spend the necessary money to keep him long term. But names like Taylor Ward (a deadline target for the Bucs), Wilyer Abreu, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas and Mike Yastrzemski have all been bandied about the rumor mill this offseason. The Pirates will surely look into some potential under-the-radar options as well. Budget-strapped teams with some outfield depth (e.g. Twins or, if they’re comfortable dealing within the division, Brewers) could make intriguing partners, as could a team like the Orioles, with plenty of interesting young hitters but less supply in terms of quality young starting pitching.

Of course, if trade efforts fall flat, the free agent market does have some affordable names. Max Kepler, Alex Verdugo, Jesse Winker and Austin Hays are among the interesting and affordable free agents who could fit even a small-payroll club like Pittsburgh.

On the bullpen front, there’s little use speculating on specific targets, given the sheer volume of possibilities. Hiles cautions against the chances of another relatively significant splash like the one the Bucs made when signing Aroldis Chapman last year, instead positing that the Pirates will be shopping at far lower rates. Typically, the best way to find bargain options is to wait out the market and see who’s left without a seat when the musical chairs stop in February. The Pirates could also try to convince a potential trade partner to include some pre-arbitration bullpen help in any deal netting them an outfielder.

The Pirates currently project for a payroll of about $74.5MM, per RosterResource. That does not include an expected reunion with designated hitter Andrew McCutchen. Pittsburgh finished the 2024 season with a roughly $87MM payroll and peaked with a franchise-record $100MM outlay back in 2016.

Cubs Close To Deal For Kyle Tucker

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1:20pm: Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is also involved in the talks, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

1:03pm: The Cubs and Astros are “close” to an agreement on a Tucker trade, tweets Heyman. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12:56pm: Talks between the two sides have “continued to gain momentum,” Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names being discussed,” suggesting others could indeed be in play.

9:10am: The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It’s not yet clear whether other players are involved on either end. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall pick broke out as an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the game’s best young players all around. Over the past four seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fracture in his shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games.

Tucker is a year from reaching free agency as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the type of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract under Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the largest in terms of overall guarantee. Tucker could command double that guarantee in free agency over a significantly longer term than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of trading Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has young Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no obvious spot to play either Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki has a preference to play in the field rather than slot in as a primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters.

The trio of players’ contracts are worth keeping in mind, too. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5MM salary next season and has a $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s guaranteed at least $32.5MM for one year and perhaps $52.5MM over the next two seasons, pending that opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and will earn $18MM in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation presents itself but seems to rather clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to bring longtime third baseman Alex Bregman back into the fold, but he’s been seeking a deal north of $200MM while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are looking at not only an immediate big league option at the hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) at least implies some pessimism of completing a reunion with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also have a need at first base. Paredes could capably fill that role, as he’s played all four infield positions throughout his big league career. He’s primarily been a third baseman, but he does have nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base and then simply be content to add a player with Smith’s overall upside to the upper tiers of their system. Smith isn’t likely to be a big league option until 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outfield corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and looked well on his way to approximating that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays prior to the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions across the past three seasons. He’s walked in a strong 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span against a 17.3% strikeout rate that’s about five percentage points lower than average. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is under club control through the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and plus production against southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in pull percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate in that same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that kind of penchant for elevating the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 14 pick last summer and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product absolutely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two Class-A levels and Double-A. It was one of the best debut performances of any draftee and only served to further elevate his already considerable prospect stock. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects. Smith will likely be included on several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with nearly $234MM of luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up quite a bit of breathing room, as would a trade of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM but can veto any trade scenario as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that his club might need to be “creative” to address roster needs amid payroll uncertainty, and talk of potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all fit under that umbrella.

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