Cubs To Sign Shelby Miller
The Cubs have agreed to a deal with right-hander Shelby Miller, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter). The non-guaranteed contract will pay Miller $875K if he makes Chicago’s big league roster, with another $600K available in bonus money. The signing will be official when Miller passes a physical.
Miller signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last winter but didn’t see any action, as he opted out of the 2020 season in August. Since the start of the 2017 season, Miller has tossed only 82 big league innings, thanks in large part to a Tommy John procedure that sidelined him for much of 2017 and 2018.
Still only 30 years old, Miller will be joining his sixth different organization in a pro career that has seen major highs and lows. Drafted 19th overall by the Cardinals in 2009, Miller posted very strong numbers over his first three MLB seasons — with St. Louis in 2013-14 and with Atlanta in 2015, after Miller was swapped to the Braves as part of a noteworthy trade that saw Jason Heyward go to the Cards. Unfortunately for Miller, he was part of another blockbuster trade a year later, going to the Diamondbacks and then never again regaining his early-career form.
There isn’t much risk for the Cubs in adding Miller as a reclamation project, as Miller could be one of a few veterans brought into camp on low-cost or non-guaranteed contracts as Chicago looks for veteran rotation depth. Beyond Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, the Cubs’ other rotation candidates don’t have much experience — projected third and fourth starters Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills, and then a plethora of young arms competing for a look as the fifth starter.
Pitching Notes: Castillo, Reds, Anibal, Red Sox, Cora
Much of the Reds‘ offseason has been focused around moving players (i.e. trading Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering Archie Bradley) rather than adding, and eyebrows were raised last month when it was reported that Luis Castillo‘s name was coming up in trade talks. There wasn’t any indication that those talks were serious, however, and Reds VP/general manager Nick Krall issued a firm denial on the subject to reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). According to Krall, speculation about a Castillo trade is “completely false. We intend to have [Castillo] as a member of our rotation for 2021.”
Castillo and the Reds recently agreed to an arbitration-avoiding $4.2MM contract for 2021, and the right-hander is still under team control through 2023 thanks to two more years of arbitration eligibility. Between this affordability, the three years of control, and Castillo’s front-of-the-rotation ability, there isn’t really any pressing reason for Cincinnati to move Castillo. Since the Reds seems to be focusing on cutting payroll this winter, an argument could be made that Castillo could be attached to a deal that would get a bigger contract (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos) off the books, but that would seem like an awfully extreme move. One would imagine Castillo wouldn’t be traded unless the Reds were reversing course entirely and now looking to rebuild.
More pitching notes from around the league…
- Julio Teheran‘s showcase on Tuesday will include another Mato Sports Management client, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that Anibal Sanchez will also be throwing for scouts. Like Teheran, Sanchez is looking to rebound from a rough 2020 season, as Sanchez posted a 6.62 ERA over 53 innings for the Nationals last year. The Phillies were recently linked to Sanchez, but it has been an otherwise quiet winter for news about the 36-year-old. Considering Sanchez was still delivering solid results as recently as 2019 (for the World Series champion Nats, no less), his market could start to pick up if scouts like what they see on Tuesday. The Red Sox will have scouts on hand to see Sanchez and Teheran, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets.
- Speaking of the Red Sox, manager Alex Cora noted that his team is still exploring more rotation additions. “I’m going to keep saying it all the way until April 1 [Opening Day], this puzzle is not completed. We have to be patient,” Cora said in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link). That being said, Cora is also pleased with the current group of hurlers in Boston’s organization, saying that the Sox have more pitching depth now than they had in either the 2019 or 2020 seasons. “Little by little, the front office did a good job during the season last year and [in] the offseason to add some quality arms, some intriguing arms,” Cora said.
AL East Notes: Benintendi, Kluber, Rays
Despite all of the trade speculation swirling around Andrew Benintendi, the Red Sox haven’t “reached a point of no return in trade talks,” The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, and “there’s a solid chance, though not a guarantee” that Benintendi won’t be moved. One of the obstacles preventing a deal is the number of quality left field options remaining in free agency, so a team in need at the position might prefer to just sign a longer-term answer, rather than swing a trade with the Sox for a player who is only under team control for two more seasons. Speier notes that the Red Sox themselves could be such a team looking for a longer-term outfielder, and could explore the free agent market themselves if Benintendi is indeed dealt.
More from around the AL East…
- Since over half the league sent scouts to watch Corey Kluber‘s showcase event, it isn’t surprising that there was some significant money on offer for the veteran righty, who ended up signing with the Yankees on a one-year, $11MM deal. Several teams made eight-figure offers, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino, and the Yankees’ offer wasn’t the most expensive contract on the table.
- Kluber drew plenty of interest from elsewhere in the AL East, as Martino writes that the Blue Jays were one of the clubs “bidding aggressively.” Speier sheds a bit more light on Kluber’s situation, noting that he “seemed most interested in a clean one-year deal” rather than a one-year contract with a 2022 option attached — a structure that would have perhaps been more appealing to the Red Sox, another team with legitimate interest in Kluber’s services.
- The Rays also “made a very strong run” at Kluber, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. With Kluber now off the board, Chris Archer is still under consideration as the Rays continue to look for veteran rotation help.
- Also from Topkin, he provides health updates on Yonny Chirinos (Tommy John surgery) and Brendan McKay (shoulder surgery). Chirinos has started to play catch, despite only undergoing his TJ procedure back in August. While the early progress is a good sign, it would still be a surprise if Chirinos was able to pitch at all in 2021 given the usual timeline for Tommy John recovery. McKay’s timeline isn’t as clear, as it was estimated last August that his labrum issue would keep him sidelined through at least the start of the spring. However, Topkin reports that McKay is expected to “soon” start playing catch, which could give both the star prospect and the Rays a better idea of when McKay will be ready for the 2021 season.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yankees’ Recent Deals
The Yankees agreed to deals with a pair of high-profile players on Friday. They started the day off by coming to terms with their own free agent, infielder DJ LeMahieu, on a six-year contract worth $90MM. In the evening, they went outside the organization to add right-hander Corey Kluber. Unsurprisingly, that was a much shorter deal, with Kluber headed to the Bronx for a single year at $11MM.
LeMahieu’s contract came in a bit above pre-offseason expectations. Entering the winter, MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $68MM figure for the reigning AL MVP finalist. LeMahieu eclipsed that mark by more than $20MM, albeit over an additional two years. The six-year term is no doubt a luxury tax workaround. (Teams’ luxury tax figures are calculated by taking a contract’s average annual value, so extending the deal an extra year reduces the Yankees’ per-season luxury tax hit).
Kluber, on the other hand, landed right in line with MLBTR’s prediction (one-year, $12MM). The two-time Cy Young winner is a bit of a wild card after pitching just 36.2 innings combined over the last two seasons. But he’d generally impressed teams at a showcase earlier this week and has an atypical level of upside for an addition at that price point.
How does the readership feel about the Yankees’ recent acquisitions?
(poll links for app users)
Grade The LeMahieu Signing From The Yankees' Perspective.
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A 67% (14,185)
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B 23% (4,917)
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C 7% (1,410)
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F 2% (358)
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D 1% (305)
Total votes: 21,175
Grade The Kluber Signing From The Yankees' Perspective.
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B 42% (8,313)
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A 31% (6,162)
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C 20% (3,974)
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D 4% (796)
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F 2% (457)
Total votes: 19,702
Quick Hits: Blue Jays, Brantley, Cardinals, Hicks, Astros
The Blue Jays continue to have interest in Michael Brantley, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Toronto’s top free agent outfield target remains George Springer, and Rosenthal floats the possibility of the Jays signing both players. Springer and Brantley have spent the past two seasons as teammates with the Astros, and Brantley is plenty familiar with Jays’ president/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins from their time in Cleveland. Signing both Springer and Brantley would make for a bit of an awkward fit on-paper, since Toronto already has a glut of corner outfield/designated hitter options. Nevertheless, doing so could free the Jays up to trade one of their young, in-house outfielders for rotation help, Rosenthal feels.
Some more from around the sport:
- Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks is “ready to go” for next season, bullpen coach Bryan Eversgerd tells reporters (including Anne Rogers of MLB.com). That’s welcome news after a setback in Hicks’ recovery from Tommy John surgery contributed to his choice to opt out of the 2020 season. The 24-year-old suffers from Type 1 diabetes, which no doubt also played a role in that decision. In 106.2 career innings between 2018-19, the fireballer has pitched to a 3.47 ERA behind an elite 62.3% groundball rate.
- The Astros have signed Ryne Stanek and Pedro Báez this winter. Even still, they’d like to continue to add to their bullpen, ideally by acquiring a traditional closer, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “It’s something that I think all of us would like to have, and it can certainly make you feel better about your bullpen than if you don’t have someone who maybe has done it in the past,” general manager James Click said of a set ninth inning option. “However, there are always guys who step up into that role every year. There are new closers every year, and our young talent on this roster did an impressive job last season in stepping up in some roles that, if we’re being honest, I don’t think that we thought that they might have been ready for, and our hand was forced because of a lot of different reasons.” As Click alluded to, Houston’s bullpen was decimated by injuries in 2020 and ranked just 24th league-wide with a 4.55 SIERA. One potential option is Brad Hand, with whom the club remains in contact, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
East Notes: Lindor, Yankees, Springer, Mets, Jays, Braves
The Yankees never made a formal offer to the Indians in talks regarding Francisco Lindor, writes Buster Olney of ESPN. The two teams kicked around frameworks involving Lindor before Cleveland dealt him and right-hander Carlos Carrasco to the Mets, but the Yankees evidently never put an official proposal on the table. It seems the Yankees were deterred by Lindor’s lofty projected arbitration salary for 2021, which eventually landed at $22.3MM. New York’s main focus all winter has been agreeing to a long-term deal with DJ LeMahieu, which the team finally pulled off this week.
More out of the East divisions:
- The Mets and Blue Jays have been the two teams most closely connected to George Springer this winter. Jon Morosi of MLB.com feels the Mets have the geographical upper hand, noting that the Connecticut native and former UConn star would prefer to play close to home. (Springer’s home town of New Britain is approximately a two-hour drive from Queens, compared to seven-plus hours to Toronto). Of course, geographical ties of this sort are often discussed as potential tiebreakers for prominent free agents but are rarely enough to overcome significant discrepancies in teams’ respective contract proposals. Indeed, Morosi acknowledges the possibility the Mets eventually turn their attention elsewhere, particularly if they manage to sign reliever Brad Hand.
- More from Olney, who notes that the Braves “appear highly unlikely” to re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna. The 30-year-old slugger had an incredible season in Atlanta after signing a one-year deal last offseason. Ozuna is now in line for a much bigger multi-year accord this winter. That doesn’t fit the general approach of Braves’ GM Alex Anthopolous, who has tended to shy away from longer-term deals since taking over baseball operations. Just last winter, the Braves watched Josh Donaldson, who had starred on a similar pillow contract in 2019, walk for a four-year deal with the Twins. MLBTR projects a $72MM accord over that same length for Ozuna.
Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets
Even after reaching agreements with DJ LeMahieu and Corey Kluber, the Yankees are still hoping to round out the roster. New York is looking for pitching depth, hears Buster Olney of ESPN, with a “third-tier starter” or relief help most likely. Olney also adds that the Yankees would still like to bring back outfielder Brett Gardner, who has spent his entire career to date in pinstripes.
The Yankees have a few high-upside pitchers who could earn regular rotation jobs behind Gerrit Cole and Kluber, at least until Luis Severino recovers from his February 2020 Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery didn’t do a great job keeping runs off the board last year, but his peripherals were strong and likely earned him another rotation spot. Prospects Clarke Schmidt and Deivi García are at or near the majors, while Domingo Germán is returning from a season-long domestic violence suspension. Given the wide ranges of potential outcomes for most of those players (and Kluber, for that matter), it’s arguable the Yankees should add a stable back-of-the-rotation veteran to the mix. That’s all the more true in a 2021 campaign where pitchers’ workloads are expected to see a massive spike after last year’s shortened season.
In the outfield, the Yankees maintained they had interest in bringing Gardner back immediately after buying out his club option last October. Apparently, that remains the case. The 37-year-old is an organizational favorite whose left-handed bat continues to fit a Yankee lineup that skews right-handed. Gardner had a fairly productive .223/.354/.392 slash line last season but is certainly looking at a contract for less than the $12.5MM guarantee he commanded last offseason.
At the moment, the Yankees’ 2021 payroll sits at a projected $201MM, per Roster Resource. The organization’s luxury tax ledger is estimated at just over $207MM. That leaves essentially no wiggle room for further additions if the organization is committed to staying below the first tax threshold of $210MM. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Yankees could look to move reliever Adam Ottavino, who has a matching $9MM salary and luxury hit in the final season of his contract. The Yankees may have to pay down some of that money and accept a rather minimal return to do so, though, with Ottavino coming off something of a down year.
Red Sox To Sign Martín Pérez
The Red Sox and southpaw Martín Pérez have agreed to join forces for a second consecutive season, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com confirms the deal, pending a physical. Pérez will earn a $4.5MM salary in 2021 with a $6MM option for 2022 that comes with a $500K buyout (Twitter links). He’ll also earn an extra $100K for every ten innings starting at 130 innings in 2021, with a max of $500K, adds Rosenthal. Pérez is represented by the OL Baseball Group.
Last year’s pact worked out well enough for both sides to essentially roll it back at a slightly lower price point. Boston declined its $6.25MM option this past November, instead paying a $500K buyout. After being guaranteed $6.5MM last year, Pérez signs for a $5MM guarantee this time around with the potential for an additional $6MM if Boston picks up their 2022 option.
Cotillo has said all winter that the Red Sox will need to add at least two arms for their rotation, so an agreement with Pérez doesn’t preclude a later deal for an arm like Garrett Richards, Matt Moore, or Jake Odorizzi. Still, Pérez fills a big hole as a safe bet to eat innings. He ably manned that post in 2020 for the Red Sox, averaging more than five innings per start over 12 starts. He had a 4.50 ERA/4.88 FIP with just a 17.6 percent strikeout rate, 10.7 percent walk rate, and 38.5 percent groundball rate.
While those numbers themselves won’t get the Red Sox back into contention, they represent an important level of consistency. A rebuilding club like Boston relies on rote veteran production at certain places on the roster in order to embolden the coaching staff and front office as they maneuver a grueling 162-game season. For example, they can resist the temptation to rush younger arms while Chris Sale works his way back from injury. In-game, they can be more conservative with Eduardo Rodriguez‘s innings knowing that Pérez can help protect the bullpen from overuse.
Boston’s rotation, after all, is riddled with long-term injury concerns. As of right now, Pérez joins Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta in their starting five, though as we mentioned above, Boston’s working with a dynamic pool of rotation candidates at this time. Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock could be a candidate for starts, Sale should return at some point during the season, and they’ll take a look at younger arms like Connor Seabold and Bryan Mata during spring training.
MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel
The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.
Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.
Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.
In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.
O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.
Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)
How much should Dansby Swanson make in 2021?
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$6.0MM 43% (3,630)
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$6.7MM 30% (2,547)
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Doesn't matter because he's going to sign an extension. 26% (2,190)
Total votes: 8,367
How much should Mike Soroka make in 2021?
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$2.8MM 45% (3,633)
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$2.1MM 31% (2,513)
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Doesn't matter, becuase he's going to sign an extension. 24% (1,908)
Total votes: 8,054
Quick Hits: Martín Pérez, Coliseum
There was some heavy lifting done in the baseball world yesterday: it was arbitration filing day, as well as the opening of the international signing period. Today is a recovery day. Here’s the latest…
- Before agreeing to terms with the Red Sox, southpaw Martín Pérez had no shortage of suitors. The Astros, Padres, Royals, White Sox, and Rays all showed interest in Pérez, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Padres and White Sox have generally set their sights a touch higher than Pérez, but there’s clearly some trust around the league in Perez’s ability to contribute to a playoff-caliber pitching staff.
- The Oakland A’s have long faced questions about their ability to stay in Oakland because of stadium concerns. The Coliseum sits on land with split ownership between the A’s and the city of Oakland. The organization continues to look for a site to build a new stadium, but the city of Oakland has also received a number of offers for their portion of the Coliseum land. One of those offers comes from former Oakland pitcher Dave Stewart, per Susan Slusser and Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Stewart, an Oakland native, submitted a $115MM bid with plans to revitalize the area, whether or not the A’s continue to play there. The city of Oakland is reviewing all offers.