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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years.  With clean books beyond 2026, will they make a major rotation addition this winter?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Shota Imanaga, SP: three-year, $57.75MM club option.  If declined, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026.  If Imanaga exercises that, he'd have another $15.25MM player option for 2027 if the Cubs don't exercise a $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
  • Andrew Kittredge, RP: $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
  • Colin Rea, SP/RP: $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
  • Justin Turner, 1B/DH: $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs broke through this year with a 92-win season, their highest total since 2018.  They reached the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017.  After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the division series to the Brewers with a "bullpen game" pitching approach, fans couldn't help but wonder if the team could have gone further with a healthy Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.

Let's start this offseason outlook by assessing the complicated option of the pitcher the Cubs chose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imanaga.  Imanaga, 32, was a rousing success last year as an MLB rookie.  He made the All-Star team and garnered Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes, posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.

After eight starts this year, Imanaga suffered a strained left hamstring that knocked him out for 53 days.  On the season, Imanaga's control remained excellent, but his average fastball velocity slipped below 91 miles per hour and his strikeout rate dropped below league average.  Among starters with at least 100 innings, Imanaga's 29.2% groundball rate was the lowest in baseball, leading to a 1.93 HR/9 rate that ranked second-worst.

Imanaga still managed a 3.73 ERA, but it's fair to say he demonstrated the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher.  Even if 150 innings of a 4ish ERA is what the Cubs can expect from Imanaga moving forward, that's rotation-worthy.  The question is whether the Cubs would sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract heading into his age-32 season, and commit to that in early November.

A good comp for that might be Dallas Keuchel's three-year, $55.5MM deal with the White Sox six years ago.  Though a groundball heavy pitcher, Keuchel was also a soft-tossing lefty heading into his age-32 season.  That contract did not go well.

There are soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs' recruiting efforts toward other Japanese players and Imanaga's popularity with fans last year.  MLBTR writers debated Imanaga's complicated option situation, and here's our best guess:

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Brewers Claim Sammy Peralta

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The Brewers have claimed left-hander Sammy Peralta off waivers from the Angels, as announced by both teams.  There hadn’t been any public indication that Peralta had been designated for assignment, but the southpaw will now be on the move again after spending the last five months in the Halos organization.

After breaking into the big leagues with the White Sox and posting a 4.37 ERA over 35 relief innings for Chicago in 2023-24, Peralta elected minor league free agency following the 2024 campaign.  He began his 2025 season in the Mexican League before inking a minors deal with the Angels in May, and Los Angeles selected Peralta to the active roster in September.  Peralta made five appearances in a Halos uniform without much success, posting a 7.59 ERA in 10 2/3 innings.

Peralta is one of the lower-velocity pitchers in baseball, with an average fastball that clocks in at just 89.3mph over his relatively brief time in the big leagues.  Relying on a fastball/slider/changeup mix for much of his pro career, Peralta started to incorporate a sinker into his repertoire this season and cut back on his change.  When pitching with the Angels, Peralta relied heavily on his slider and sinker and didn’t much use his fastball or change up, though the sample size was small enough that conclusions can’t really be drawn about this usage as a new career direction.

Milwaukee has been so adept at turning unheralded pitchers into productive big league arms that this seemingly innocuous waiver claim may end up having an impact on the Brewers’ 2026 bullpen.  The Brew Crew have seen something in Peralta’s work that made them intrigued enough to make a claim and take a look at the lefty, who has one minor league option remaining.  It is very possible Peralta might yet be DFA fodder as the Brewers make other roster moves over the offseason.  If Peralta is designated and then outrighted, he has the ability to elect free agency since he has been outrighted in the past.

Rockies Narrow Front Office Search To At Least Two Finalists

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Reports emerged a few days ago that the Rockies were entering the finalist stage of their search for a new front office leader, and the field has now been whittled down to perhaps just two names.  The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal report that Guardians assistant GM Matt Forman and Diamondbacks assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye are under consideration for the job, though it is possible another unknown finalist may also still be in the mix.  Former Astros GM James Click and Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp had been candidates for the Rockies job but are no longer in consideration.

Forman, Sharp, and Click were the only names linked to the Rockies’ search, though naturally the team has likely been speaking with other candidates like Sawdaye who weren’t publicly known until now.  Sawdaye has previously been a candidate for top front office posts with the Giants (before Farhan Zaidi was hired) and Angels (who hired Perry Minasian), plus he was at least contacted by the Nationals about their president of baseball operations opening this offseason before Paul Toboni was hired.  Sawdaye has never held the top post in a front office before, but he did take over day-to-day operations for the D’Backs in 2021 when GM Mike Hazen took a temporary leave of absence.

Sawdaye is a longtime executive who started his baseball career with a 15-year stint in the Red Sox front office, rising to the levels of VP of international and amateur scouting.  He worked closely with Hazen for a decade of that time, and when Hazen was hired as Arizona’s GM in October 2016, Sawdaye followed as Hazen’s assistant GM and has since been the de facto chief lieutenant within the Diamondbacks front office.

All this time in the NL West has given Sawdaye plenty of familiarity with the Rockies, and thus Sawdaye may well have some insight into how the Rox can get their organization on track.  Colorado’s search for a new front office head is particularly intriguing since owner Dick Monfort is finally looking at external hires, as a way of bringing some fresh perspective into an organization that has long been accused of being too insular and outmoded in its thinking.

Seven straight losing seasons will tend to convince a team that things need to be changed, especially after the particular embarrassment of the Rockies’ near-record 119-loss campaign in 2025.  Whether it’s Sawdaye, Forman, or another finalist who gets the job, a massive task lies in front of them in simply modernizing the Rockies’ baseball operations department, before getting around to upgrading the on-field roster.

The latest round of interviews for the finalists will take place later this week, Ghiroli and Rosenthal write, with the assumption being that the Rockies will have someone hired before the GM Meetings in early November.  Interim manager Warren Schaeffer technically remains a candidate for the full-time managerial position, but chances are the new GM/president of baseball operations would want to make their own choice as Colorado’s next skipper.

Latest On Braves’ Managerial Search

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The Rangers and Angels each have new managers in place for 2026, but that still leaves seven other teams looking for a new dugout leader.  Amidst all of the recent news and rumors about all of these simultaneously ongoing managerial searches, there hasn’t been much out of Atlanta, which is by design.  The Braves generally operate with more secrecy than most clubs, and as president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters during his year-end press conference, “if we do our job the way I want us to do it, you guys won’t have anything” on his club’s hunt for a new skipper.

A few details have emerged from MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, though more in regards to some speculated names that can perhaps be removed from consideration.  Bowman hears from a source that former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons isn’t a candidate, and that “there has been no indication” that former Cubs manager David Ross or MLB Network and former player Mark DeRosa are being eyed for the manager’s job.

A follow-up message from Bowman on X specified that Gibbons, Ross, and DeRosa were the names he felt could be “confidently removed” from the running.  His initial report didn’t eliminate bench coach Walt Weiss or coach Eddie Perez from consideration, but Bowman downplayed the idea of either man being elevated to the manager’s chair, writing that “their potential candidacies seemed to die when the Braves didn’t persuade [Brian] Snitker to manage at least one more year.”  This implies that a succession plan might’ve been the initial concept for the team, but Snitker’s decision to step away from the job after the 2025 campaign might have the Braves leaning towards bringing an entirely fresh voice into the dugout.

Gibbons had the most MLB managerial experience of any of the names rumored to be involved in Atlanta’s search, as Gibbons logged parts of 11 seasons as the Blue Jays’ skipper over two separate tenures with the club.  Anthopoulos was the Jays’ assistant GM during Gibbons’ first stint, and then after becoming general manager himself, made the unusual move of rehiring Gibbons back prior to the 2013 season, when Toronto was looking to replace John Farrell.  Gibbons has spent the last two seasons as the Mets’ bench coach but stepped down from the job last month, creating speculation that he might emerge as Anthopoulos’ choice once more in Atlanta.

Ross seemed to be a natural candidate, as a Georgia native who both played for the Braves for four seasons and has four years of Major League managing experience on his resume.  DeRosa is another former Brave who played seven seasons with the club from 1998-2004, and he has stuck mostly to broadcasting since his playing career ended in 2013.  DeRosa hasn’t coached or managed in the majors or minors, though he was Team USA’s manager during the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

In terms of which names might be on the Braves’ radar, Bowman writes that Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann’s “candidacy has seemingly strengthened over the past couple weeks.”  The fact that the Dodgers are on their way to the World Series could be a complicating factor, though Lehmann could interview with the Braves during the interim periods between playoff rounds.  This does mean that Atlanta might not announce a new hire until November, or at least until after the World Series is completed.

The 40-year-old Lehmann has been Dave Roberts’ bench coach for the last three years, and he has spent the last decade in the L.A. organization in such roles as a game planning/communication coach, a special assistant within the front office, and an advance video scout.  Lehmann’s time with the Dodgers overlaps with Anthopoulos’ two-year (2016-17) tenure as the Dodgers’ vice-president of baseball operations, so there’s plenty of familiarity between the two men.

Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Tigers bench coach George Lombard are two other “potential candidates,” in Bowman’s words.  The two have each been popular names in managerial searches in recent years, as Flaherty was a finalist for the Padres’ job in 2023 (before Mike Shildt was hired) and has been speculated as a candidate for the Padres’ current vacancy, as well as the Orioles’ and Twins’ open managerial positions.  Lombard interviewed with the Marlins and White Sox last winter, and he was also in the running for past managerial vacancies with the Tigers and Pirates.

Lombard is an Atlanta native, and he also has some past L.A. history with Anthopoulos since Lombard was the Dodgers’ first base coach during the 2016-20 seasons.  Both Lombard and Flaherty are former Braves players — Lombard during the 1998-99 seasons, and Flaherty in 2018.

The Opener: Okamoto, Hirings, Brewers, Mariners

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Okamoto to be posted:

Earlier this morning, it was reported that NPB’s Yomiuri Giants will be posting slugger Kazuma Okamoto for MLB clubs this winter. A career .277/.361/.521 hitter in NPB, the 29-year-old faces questions about his ability to hit velocity and whether he’ll end up playing third or first base in the majors but has prodigious power and figures to shake up the corner infield market in a big way this offseason alongside fellow NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami, who also plays the infield corners and is expected to be one of the league’s top free agents this winter. Unlike most free agents, who become available five days after the World Series, Okamoto and other players coming to MLB through the posting system will have a 45-day window to sign in the majors once they’re officially posted. That’s unlikely to happen for at least another month, but MLB teams are surely already adjusting their offseason plans to account for Okamoto’s availability.

2. One managerial vacancy down:

The Angels brought an end to their managerial search yesterday when they hired Kurt Suzuki to take over for Ron Washington and Ray Montgomery in the dugout next year. While Suzuki assembles a coaching staff and the Angels begin to move on with their offseason, seven other clubs still have leadership positions to fill. The Giants, Padres, Braves, Orioles, Nationals, and Twins all still need to hire a manager, while the Rockies need to hire a new head of baseball operations, who will then decide on the status of interim manager Warren Schaeffer. San Francisco appears to be the closest to landing a new skipper at this point, with University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello viewed as the favorite for the position.

3. Brewers, Mariners head into the offseason:

While the focus in recent days has been on the Dodgers and Blue Jays after they punched their tickets to the World Series, the two teams that came within a series of a pennant are now headed into the offseason a little bit earlier than they were hoping. End-of-season press conferences from Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold are likely to occur in the coming days with both clubs facing significant decisions this offseason, with Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor both set to hit free agency after joining the Mariners at the trade deadline while the Brewers are expected to contemplate the possibility of trading Freddy Peralta. Perhaps comments from those front offices in recent days will shed additional light on the offseason plans in Milwaukee and Seattle as they look to build towards a return to the playoffs in 2026.

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted This Offseason

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NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason, according to an announcement made by the Yomiuri Giants and Okamoto himself during a press conference earlier today. Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link) was among the outlets to report on the news, which comes on the heels of reporting last month that Okamoto was expected to be posted this winter.

Despite that previous reporting, the 29-year-old Okamoto’s was not viewed as a certain thing due in part to Yomiuri’s history of being reluctant to allow their star players to utilize the posting system. Okamoto certainly fits that description, seeing as he’s the club’s captain and a six-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and three NPB home run titles to his name. He was limited to just 69 Central League games this year due to an elbow injury caused by a collision at first base, but in the 293 trips to the plate he managed to take he raked to the tune of a .327/.416/.598 slash line. He managed 15 homers, 21 doubles, and a triple in less than half a full season’s work with identical 11.3% strikeout and walk rates.

It’s that blend of power and discipline that has led teams to scout Okamoto for the past several years in anticipation of his eventual move stateside. Since his rookie age-22 season back in 2018, Okamoto has hit 274 home runs in 1,039 Central League games. He’s homered once every 16.2 plate appearances in that eight-year stretch with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.8%. It’s certainly an impressive resume, and his career .277/.361/.521 slash line in NPB compares quite favorably to the NPB slash lines of current big league sluggers Shohei Ohtani (.286/.358/.500) and Seiya Suzuki (.315/.414/.570). That Suzuki was a better hitter in NPB than Ohtani was should demonstrate the fact that NPB stats don’t always perfectly reflect how a player will perform in the majors.

Much of that is due to the lack of high-end velocity in NPB, which creates uncertainty about how hitters will handle the improved velocity in the majors. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph. Of course, some of those struggles could simply be due to limited exposure; Longenhagen notes that Okamoto saw only around 200 fastballs at that velocity all season last year. It’s entirely possible his numbers could improve against high-end velocity with more experience facing those types of pitchers, but it’s nonetheless a concern interested clubs will need to consider as they weigh a pursuit of Okamoto’s services.

Another consideration is where Okamoto will be able to play. He’s played around 60% of his NPB games at third base, but has also received plenty of time at first base with an increased workload at that position in recent years plus occasional starts in the outfield corners. One of the corner infield spots seems most likely to be his defensive home in the majors, and while it’s certainly possible there are MLB clubs that view Okamoto as a capable third baseman, Jeff Passan of ESPN suggests that at least some teams view him as better suited for first base, where he’s drawn rave reviews defensively for his work in Japan.

Now that Okamoto is poised to be posted, he’s sure to draw significant multi-year interest in the majors. He’ll face competition from fellow NPB corner infielder Munetaka Murakami in the posting market this winter, who is four years younger than Okamoto with a .270/.394/.557 NPB slash line that’s even more impressive. In terms of stateside players, the biggest names on the first base market are Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Luis Arraez while the third base market is headlined by Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. The Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, and Padres are among the teams who need help at at least one corner infield spot this winter, while teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers could also make sense depending on how the rest of their roster decisions play out.

Okamoto won’t be officially posted for some time yet, as that process typically begins between late November and mid December. Once he’s been posted, MLB teams will have 45 days to negotiate a contract with Okamoto. The club that ultimately lands him with owe the Yomiuri Giants a posting fee on top of Okamoto’s contract. That fee adds up to 20% of the first $25MM spent on Okamoto, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any spending over $50MM. As an example, when the Cubs signed Suzuki during the 2021-22 offseason, the posting fee on that $85MM deal came in at roughly $14.6MM. The posting fee on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers, meanwhile, came in at approximately $50.6MM.

MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Castellanos, Happ, Pablo Lopez

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This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.

Abner asks:

The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.

There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed.  Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening.  In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%.  I'm more in the range of 5-10%.

Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."

My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch.  Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him.  We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others.  I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.

I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.

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Angels Hire Kurt Suzuki As Manager

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The Angels’ managerial search is over, as the club announced that they’ve hired Kurt Suzuki as their new bench boss. The former MLB catcher had been a special assistant in the Halos’ front office. It’s only a one-year contract, though the Angels announced that the deal has multiple option years.

Suzuki was one of multiple former Angels players who was linked to the managerial vacancy.  Albert Pujols emerged as the initial candidate for the job and was seen as the favorite, before news broke yesterday that Pujols wouldn’t be the hire.  As per reports from both Heyman and The Athletic’s Sam Blum, Pujols and the Angels couldn’t line up on a contract, as well as on “coaches and resources,” in Heyman’s words.  Longtime Angels outfielder Torii Hunter was another candidate for the job but he also fell out of race yesterday.

Other names linked to the search included candidates with past experience managing at the big league level, including Rocco Baldelli, Brandon Hyde, and Los Angeles’ own third base coach (and former Astros skipper) Bo Porter.  It isn’t known if the Halos actually spoke with any of these speculative candidates, or if the team was impressed enough by what they heard from Suzuki that they went ahead and made the hire.

Like Pujols and Hunter, Suzuki has no experience managing or coaching at the Major League or minor league levels.  Since his retirement following the 2022 season, Suzuki moved into his role as a special assistant to Angels GM Perry Minasian.  This wasn’t Suzuki’s only foray into a managerial search, however, as the Giants interviewed him about their own dugout vacancy earlier this month.  (It would appear that San Francisco is instead going with University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello for that job, though a deal between the two sides isn’t yet finalized.)

The 42-year-old Suzuki becomes the latest in a long line of ex-catchers to become MLB managers, and the Angels’ pick continues a more recent trend towards teams hiring fairly recently retired players without much or any of a managerial or coaching background.  The Guardians’ Stephen Vogt is perhaps the most prominent example of this, as Vogt retired after the 2022 season, and then spent a year on the Mariners’ coaching staff before Cleveland tabbed him as Terry Francona’s replacement.

In regards to the Angels, Suzuki’s hire is a departure from the organization’s preference towards experienced managers under Arte Moreno’s ownership.  Mike Scioscia was inherited as the skipper when Moreno bought the team in 2003 and Scioscia continued managing through the 2018 season.  From there, the Halos hired Brad Ausmus and Joe Maddon as their next two skippers, before Maddon was fired partway through the 2022 campaign and replaced by interim manager Phil Nevin (who had never managed a big league club).  Nevin remained in charge through 2023 before he too was let go, and longtime former Rangers manager Ron Washington was brought on board in advance of the 2024 campaign.

Washington’s own tenure was cut short by health reasons, as he went on a leave of absence this past June to recover from quadruple bypass surgery.  Bench coach Ray Montgomery took over managerial duties for the remainder of this season, and while Washington hoped to return to the job in 2026, the Angels instead decided to go in an entirely new direction by hiring another manager.

The fact that Suzuki will be the seventh different person to manage the Angels within a nine-year span speaks to the difficult challenge facing Suzuki in his new job.  Los Angeles has posted losing records in each of the last 10 seasons, and has been to the playoffs just once in their last 16 seasons.  A number of ill-advised signings, lack of farm system help, and a general sense of instability has plagued the franchise, with Moreno’s heavy-handed interference in baseball operations often cited as the reason for the team’s lack of success.  Minasian has been the general manager since November 2020 and is under contract through 2026, but he is also the Angels’ fifth GM under Moreno (Bill Stoneman had separate stints as the full-time GM and as an interim GM).

Suzuki naturally has an idea of what he’s getting into, having worked in the Halos’ front office for three years and spending his final two seasons as a player with the team.  The Hawaii native’s ties to the Anaheim area date back to his college days as a player with Cal State Fullerton, and his playing career began as a second-round pick for the Athletics in the 2004 draft.  Suzuki suited up for five different teams over his 16-year playing career, which was highlighted by an All-Star appearance with the Twins in 2014 and a World Series ring with the Nationals in 2019.

With the Angels’ position now filled, there are still seven other teams on the hunt for new managers in 2026.  The Giants, Padres, Orioles, Braves, Twins, Nationals, and Rockies all need new skippers, though Colorado will first be hiring a new top front office executive before turning its attention to a managerial search.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Suzuki hiring. Sam Blum of The Athletic reported that it was a one-year deal. Photo courtesy of David Banks – Imagn Images

A’s Could Explore Second/Third Base Markets

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The A’s have around two-thirds of their starting lineup in place going into the offseason. While starting pitching should be the primary focus, they have some questions on the infield that may need to be addressed externally.

Second baseman Zack Gelof underwent surgery after dislocating his left shoulder with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the team announced last week that third baseman Brett Harris underwent surgery to repair the UCL in his left thumb (link via Jason Burke of Sports Illustrated). The injuries cloud what were already the two weakest positions in the lineup heading into the winter.

Martín Gallegos of MLB.com writes that Harris is expected to be ready for Spring Training. General manager David Forst was noncommittal about Gelof’s timeline, telling Gallegos that they’ll need to “wait further in the offseason to know exactly what [that] is.” It doesn’t appear that Gelof is locked into the starting second base job even once he’s healthy. Forst told Gallegos that the A’s will “be open to a lot of possibilities” at each of second and third base.

That presumably includes looking outside the organization. The A’s don’t have great internal options at either spot. Darell Hernaiz got some late-season run at all three infield positions to the left of first base (including everyday shortstop work while Jacob Wilson was out with a broken arm). Hernaiz put a lot of balls in play but didn’t hit the ball hard enough to make an impact, batting .231/.292/.306 across 197 plate appearances.

[Related: A’s Offseason Outlook]

Former first-round pick Max Muncy had a tough rookie season, hitting .214/.259/.379 over 220 trips to the plate. He struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances and lost most of the second half to a broken hand. The 27-year-old Harris got regular third base reps over the final six weeks of the season. He hit .274 with a .349 on-base percentage but didn’t connect on a home run in 32 games. Max Schuemann is the only other utility infielder on the 40-man roster. He’s coming off a .197/.295/.273 showing and isn’t guaranteed to hold his roster spot all winter.

Gelof has shown the most promise of that group. The former second-round pick hit 14 homers with a .267/.337/.504 slash line over 69 games as a rookie in 2023. He has followed that up with consecutive tough years. Gelof led the American League with 188 strikeouts in ’24, causing his average (.211) and on-base percentage (.270) to plummet.

Injuries limited him to 30 MLB games this past season. He sustained a wrist fracture on a Spring Training hit-by-pitch and underwent hamate surgery. A stress reaction in his ribs set him back when he was on a rehab assignment six weeks later. Gelof didn’t make his season debut until July 4. The A’s optioned him to Triple-A a week later and kept him in the minors until late August. He got a few weeks of run before suffering the dislocated shoulder. While the stop and start nature of his season didn’t do him any favors, Gelof’s contact issues worsened. He struck out 46 times in 101 plate appearances while whiffing on more than 40% of his swings.

Top prospect Leo De Vries, the centerpiece of the Mason Miller return, may be the long-term answer at second base. De Vries has come up as a shortstop but could eventually move to the other side of the bag to play alongside Wilson in the middle infield. He’s coming off a .255/.355/.451 showing as an 18-year-old between High-A and Double-A. De Vries has a chance to get to the big leagues next year, but it’s hard to imagine the A’s would carry him on the Opening Day roster. He only has 21 games at Double-A and has no Triple-A experience. A second half debut is more reasonable and would still be remarkable for a player who turned 19 two weeks ago.

The A’s will want to keep one long-term infield spot available for De Vries. Their needs at second and third base mean they could pursue a controllable infielder at one spot while looking for a stopgap at the other. Brendan Donovan and Ozzie Albies each have two years of club control remaining and could be available on the trade market. Josh Jung and Alec Bohm are change-of-scenery candidates at third base. Jung has three years of remaining control and is projected at a $2.9MM salary, though it’s possible the Rangers would prefer to trade him outside the division. Bohm is projected for a salary in the $10MM range for his last arbitration season.

This isn’t a great class for free agent infielders. The A’s obviously aren’t signing Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman. Each of Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim (if he opts out) could be available for two or three years, but they’re all going to command eight-figure salaries on an annual basis. Willi Castro, Yoán Moncada, Luis Rengifo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be available on one-year or cheap two-year deals at most. Signing someone from that group would aim a little higher than last winter’s deals with Luis Urías and Gio Urshela but would be broadly similar pickups.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.

No-Doubters

This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.

Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.

Likely Recipients

All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.

King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.

Borderline Calls

Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.

The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. Whether to make the QO will come down to Boston’s risk tolerance on the elbow.

The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.

Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons. How much has the final six weeks soured the Cubs on his future projection?

Unlikely/Long Shots

This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.

Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.

Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.

Ineligible

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.

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