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Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2025

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Major League Baseball has finalized its calculations of teams’ competitive balance tax payrolls for the 2025 season. As first reported by The Associated Press, nine teams surpassed the $241MM base threshold. In a separate post, The AP lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $169.4MM
  • Mets: $91.6MM
  • Yankees: $61.8MM
  • Phillies: $56.1MM
  • Blue Jays: $13.6MM
  • Padres: $7MM
  • Astros: $1.5MM
  • Red Sox: $1.5MM
  • Rangers: $190K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. The Astros went over the line for the second straight season. The Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox had gotten below in 2024 and are categorized as first-time payors.

This is the second straight year in which nine teams paid the CBT. The Braves, Giants and Cubs had gone over the line in ’24 but dipped below this year, which resets their status going into 2026. Atlanta’s active offseason puts them in position to go back into tax territory next year, when the base threshold climbs to $244MM. San Francisco and Chicago each have projected CBT numbers more than $40MM below that right now.

While public estimates from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts offer an excellent approximation of teams’ payroll commitments, the official numbers are not available during the season. It’s not uncommon for rounding errors in those calculations to vary by a few million dollars. That generally isn’t a big deal but can matter for teams that are hovering very close to the tax line. Each of the Red Sox ($249MM payroll), Astros ($246MM) and Rangers ($241.38MM) were believed to have gone narrowly beyond the $241MM cutoff, but that wasn’t 100% established until this evening — particularly in the case of Texas.

The Dodgers ($417MM), Mets ($347MM), Yankees ($320MM), Phillies ($314MM) and Blue Jays ($286MM) all had payrolls above $281MM. That was the third tier of penalization and marked the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by 10 spots. The Mets were the only of those five that didn’t make the playoffs. Their top pick drops from 17th to 27th. The Yankees, Philadelphia, Toronto and L.A. all have their first-round pick dropped to between 35th and 40th.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2026 and $1MM from their ’27 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

San Diego and the Mets receive a pick after the fourth round for losing Dylan Cease and Edwin Díaz, respectively. Toronto (Bo Bichette), Houston (Framber Valdez) and Philadelphia (Ranger Suárez) would receive the same if their free agents sign elsewhere. The Dodgers surrendered their second- and fifth-round selections for Díaz. Toronto is slated to do the same for Cease, but if Bichette walks, they’d give up that compensatory pick instead and get their fifth-rounder back.

The Dodgers’ combined payroll and tax bill for the 2025 season lands north of $586MM. The two-time defending champions’ tax hit alone is higher than the payrolls of the bottom 12 teams in the league. There were 14 clubs that had a CBT number above $200MM. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Mariners were the other six teams above the median. All but Seattle spent more than $200MM.

On the other end, the Marlins ($87MM) and White Sox ($92MM) were the two teams with payrolls below $100MM. The Rays ($103MM), Pirates ($109MM) and Athletics ($118MM) rounded out the bottom five — followed by the Guardians, Nationals, Twins, Brewers and Reds.

Overall, the league will collect just under $403MM in taxes. Teams must make the payments by January 21. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams.

Latest On Pete Fairbanks’ Market

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While most of the top free agent relievers are off the board, former Rays closer Pete Fairbanks remains unsigned. The Diamondbacks, Marlins and White Sox are among the teams that have been linked to the hard-throwing righty.

The connection with Miami has come up on a few occasions. The Marlins are looking for a high-leverage reliever. Fairbanks has ties to president of baseball operations Peter Bendix from their time in Tampa Bay. In an appearance on Foul Territory this week, Izaac Azout of Fish On First suggested that Miami has shown a willingness to offer a one-year deal in “the mid-teens” range and floated the possibility that Miami could make a $13-14MM proposal.

Tampa Bay could have retained Fairbanks on an $11MM club option. While it’s understandable the front office didn’t want to commit a sizable portion of their budget to a single inning reliever, it was more surprising that the Rays were unable to drum up trade interest. It should work out better for Fairbanks financially. He collected a $1MM buyout and seems well positioned to beat the $10MM difference. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote on Thursday that Fairbanks was trending towards either a multi-year deal or a one-year contract worth more than $11MM.

While it’d seem counterintuitive for teams to pay more than the declined option price, that occasionally happens. Option calls are due within the first five days of the offseason. Teams may have preferred to maintain payroll flexibility until they had a better read on the market. Fairbanks was clearly behind the likes of Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams and Robert Suarez.

Clubs that missed out on those relievers — including Miami, who reportedly had shown interest in Williams — could more highly value Fairbanks now than they did six weeks ago. It’s also possible that they stretch to a two-year deal at a sub-$11MM annual rate to save some money in 2026 while giving the pitcher a larger overall guarantee.

The Cubs are another team that makes sense for Fairbanks on paper. They have added Phil Maton and Hoby Milner while re-signing Caleb Thielbar, but they lost arguably their best reliever when Brad Keller signed a $22MM contract with Philadelphia. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that the Cubs remain open to adding a clearer high-leverage arm. They’ve given some consideration to Fairbanks, per the report, though it’s not clear how seriously they’re involved.

Chicago has shied away from significant bullpen investments over the past few seasons. Their two-year, $14.5MM contract with Maton was already their biggest reliever signing in six years. Fairbanks would cost more than $7.25MM annually but will be looking at a short-term deal as he enters his age-32 season.

Royals Acquire Matt Strahm

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The Royals and Phillies announced a one-for-one reliever swap on Friday morning. Left-hander Matt Strahm heads to Kansas City with righty Jonathan Bowlan going to Philadelphia.

It’s a reunion for Strahm and the Royals, as Kansas City drafted the lefty in the 21st round of the 2012 draft. Strahm made his big league debut for the Royals in 2016 and spent parts of two seasons with the club before being shipped to the Padres in a six-player trade alongside Travis Wood and Esteury Ruiz in order to acquire Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer, and Ryan Buchter. Strahm had a career 3.81 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 56 2/3 innings at the time of the trade. He’ll now return to Kansas City nearly a decade later with more than 500 MLB innings and an All-Star appearance under his belt.

Much of Strahm’s tenure with the Padres was fraught with injuries and ineffectiveness, but a solid season with Boston back in 2022 convinced the Phillies to bring him into the fold. Since arriving in Philadelphia, the lefty has emerged as one of the league’s most effective relievers. He has a 2.71 ERA in 212 2/3 innings of work over the past three years with a 2.82 FIP and a 3.01 SIERA. That’s the eighth-most innings of any pitcher with ten starts or fewer over the past three seasons, and among qualified relievers his ERA ranks 10th, his FIP ranks 15th, and his SIERA ranks 21st.

That’s an elite combination of quality and quantity that virtually any bullpen would benefit from adding, and the Royals are no exception. Strahm figures to join closer Carlos Estevez and righty Lucas Erceg at the back of the Kansas City bullpen to create the best late-inning trio the Royals have had since the 2015 club’s “three-headed monster” of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera. With solid arms like Nick Mears, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV set to cover the middle innings, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals entering 2025 with one of the stronger top-to-bottom bullpens in the American League thanks to this trade. Mears just came over in the same trade that netted Isaac Collins for the Royals but sent lefty Angel Zerpa to the Brewers. Sending out Zerpa cut into Kansas City’s lefty relief group but they have quickly pivoted to Strahm to restock in that department.

The loss of Strahm will surely sting for the Phillies somewhat, but the club remains fairly well set up in terms of their late-inning mix. Jhoan Duran remains one of the league’s top closers, and the recently-acquired Brad Keller was one of the top setup men in the majors last year with the Cubs. From the left side, Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks should form a quality duo, and Alvarado in particular has offered elite production in the past. Strahm’s name has long been in trade rumors this winter, and clearing his $7.5MM salary off the books could help the Phillies in the pursuit of a reunion with catcher J.T. Realmuto or help them to afford the addition of another outfielder, who could help contribute alongside Brandon Marsh, Adolis Garcia, and top prospect Justin Crawford.

Aside from the financial incentive to make the trade, the Phillies will also receive the services of Bowlan, a 29-year-old righty who made his big league debut in 2023 but just got his first extended look in the majors last year. Bowlan pitched quite well across 44 1/3 innings for Kansas City in 2025, posting a 3.86 ERA with a 3.97 FIP in that time. He struck out 25.6% of his opponents with a 9.4% walk rate and a solid 48.7% ground ball rate.

That ability to generate both strikeouts and grounders should make Bowlan an effective, low-cost addition to a Phillies pen that has plenty of solid options in the late innings but has plenty of spots still fairly unsettled. With less than one year of service time under his belt, Bowlan can be controlled through the end of the 2031 season, affording Philadelphia the opportunity to bring in an arm that could be part of their relief mix for years to come.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Strahm was being traded to Kansas City. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had Bowlan going the other way.

Phillies Evaluating Catching Trade Market With Realmuto Still Unsigned

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The Phillies have prioritized reunions with Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. They succeeded in bringing back the MVP runner-up on a five-year deal at the Winter Meetings. Realmuto’s free agency has been more extended, leaving the Phils in a holding pattern behind the plate.

While a reunion with their longtime catcher remains the priority, Matt Gelb of The Athletic writes that it’s not a lock to come to fruition. The sides obviously have yet to align on contract terms despite Philadelphia’s willingness to offer multiple years. Gelb writes that the Phillies have been involved in trade conversations about potential alternatives. Although there’s no indication anything is close on that front, that highlights the biggest question for the front office.

Aside from Realmuto, the free agent catching market is bleak. Danny Jansen is off the board on a two-year deal with Texas. Victor Caratini is the only other potential starting option, and he has been more of a high-end #2 catcher over the course of his career. Everyone else is a backup or organizational depth type.

That’s also true of the two catchers currently on Philly’s roster, Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs. Marchán was a promising enough prospect that it isn’t out of the question that he could be a solid glove-first starter if given the opportunity. That’d be a gamble for a win-now team, though, and clubs are sometimes reluctant to upgrade the position at the trade deadline because of the adjustment of learning a pitching staff in the middle of a pennant race. The worst case scenario for the Phils is that they wait out Realmuto’s market but get outbid after Caratini has already signed elsewhere. That’d leave them with little choice but to turn to the trade market.

At the same time, they’re probably reluctant to make a trade while Realmuto is still a free agent. Marchán and Stubbs are both out of minor league options. They’re already likely to expose one of them to waivers before Opening Day. Trading for a catcher and re-signing Realmuto could mean losing both of them, as there’s a good chance another team would claim Marchán. Realmuto’s heavy workloads don’t leave much playing time for his backup, so that’s not an ideal use of resources.

The Phils’ trade conversations may be due diligence for now. They still seem likelier than not to figure something out with Realmuto. If that doesn’t come together, speculative trade options include Pedro Pagés, J.C. Escarra, Connor Wong and Jose Trevino.

Padres To Sign Sung-Mun Song

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The Padres are in agreement with infielder Sung Mun Song on a contract, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. According to Francys Romero of BeisbolFR, it’s a three-year deal that guarantees Song around $13MM.

Song, 29, has broken out in a big way over his last two seasons playing for the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. After typically being a slightly below average hitter by that league’s standards in the early years of his career, Song exploded with a .340/.408/.518 (143 wRC+) slash line across 602 plate appearances during the 2024 season. He flashed 20/20 potential at the plate and walked at a career-high 10.6% clip while primarily playing third base for the Heroes. He followed up on that season with an even better year in 2025, as he slashed .315/.387/.530 (151 wRC+) with 26 homers, 25 steals, and 37 doubles in 646 trips to the plate.

Those dominant back-to-back campaigns in the KBO league were enough to convince Song to try his hand in the majors, and the Heroes made Song’s goal a reality when they posted him for MLB clubs last month. That opened a 30-day window (set to close on the 21st of December) for Song to negotiate with MLB clubs. Song has typically been viewed by scouts as a step below MLB Gold Glove winner Ha-Seong Kim, the best South Korean player to make the jump to the majors in recent years, and there’s been some debate about whether he’s more of a utility player or a proper starter at the big league level.

Song’s reported price tag is certainly affordable enough for the Padres to stomach in the event he’s more of a bench piece than a regular. A multi-year pact that pays Song less than $5MM annually figures to be quite affordable for San Diego; Jose Iglesias earned $3MM last year after being added to San Diego’s roster on a minor league deal to fill out the club’s bench mix. Song figures to fill a similar role this year to the one Iglesias held last season, chipping in around the infield and serving as a pinch-hitter.

While Song has primarily played third base throughout his career in the KBO league, that position is manned by Manny Machado in San Diego. Perhaps the Padres will look to get Machado occasional DH reps headed into his age-33 campaign, but aside from those occasional fill-in days Song figures to spend most of his time at first and second base, both of which are positions he logged significant time at in South Korea. Jake Cronenworth is currently slated to serve as San Diego’s second baseman next year, though his name has popped up in trade talks this winter. First base meanwhile, is unsettled after the departure of Luis Arraez. Gavin Sheets has some experience at the position but may be better suited for DH duties. As a result, first base could be Song’s best shot at regular reps, though it’s possible a trade of Cronenworth or the addition of a more traditional first base option like Paul Goldschmidt or Rhys Hoskins changes things.

The signing of Song comes just one day after the club agreed to reunite with right-hander Michael King on a three-year, opt-out laden contract. According to RosterResource, the Padres project for a payroll just under $217MM in 2026, with a payroll of nearly $258MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s before the addition of Song to the payroll, which at the currently reported numbers would push the team’s payroll up to around $221MM and around $262MM for luxury tax purposes. That would put them just barely below the second, $264MM luxury tax threshold for 2026.

If the Padres don’t want to go over that line, they would need to subtract salary from the roster to make virtually any more additions to the roster. That’s far from impossible, as rumors have percolated around not only Cronenworth but also players like right-hander Nick Pivetta and Ramon Laureano. A trade of Pivetta would save $20.5MM in 2026 and $13.75MM for luxury tax purposes. Cronenworth being dealt would save roughly $12.3MM in 2026 and $11.5MM for luxury tax purposes. Laureano wouldn’t save nearly as much money, as he’s due just $6.5MM next season on the final year of his contract.

Of course, it’s also possible the Padres simply stand pat from here, though doing so without adding another bat to the first base/DH mix would certainly be risky. Perhaps an addition on the trade market that comes with a lower financial cost could make some sense if San Diego neither wants to exceed the second luxury tax threshold nor trade salary to make room in the budget. Players like Triston Casas of the Red Sox and Mark Vientos of the Mets could potentially be available this winter and remain under affordable team control.

D-Backs, Ildemaro Vargas Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks are in agreement on a new minor league contract with infielder Ildemaro Vargas, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The MAS+ Agency client returns to the organization after being outrighted off the roster at the end of the season.

Vargas has plenty of familiarity with the D-Backs. The veteran utilityman has played three separate big league stints and parts of six seasons in the desert. He got into 38 games this past season. Vargas hit .270 but only walked twice in 121 plate appearances, leading to a modest .292 on-base percentage. He’s a .249/.289/.357 hitter over parts of nine MLB seasons.

Defensive versatility has been Vargas’ calling card. The majority of his experience has been at shortstop, but he saw more action between second and third base this year. He’s entering his age-34 season and likely headed to Triple-A Reno. The D-Backs also added glove-first shortstop Jacob Amaya as non-roster infield depth earlier this offseason.

Pirates Designate Marco Luciano, Tsung-Che Cheng For Assignment

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The Pirates are designating outfielder Marco Luciano and infielder Tsung-Che Cheng for assignment, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Pittsburgh needed to open two spots on the 40-man roster after this morning’s three-team trade that netted Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum.

Luciano, 24, was a waiver claim from the Giants a couple weeks ago. It was a no-risk flier on a former top prospect who has yet to show much at the big league level. Luciano once ranked among the sport’s top 15 minor league talents at Baseball America. He was then a teenage shortstop with massive raw power upside in a 6’1″ frame. His bat has stalled against higher level pitching and he has moved to left field after struggling with errors on the dirt.

San Francisco gave Luciano limited looks in 2023 and ’24. He hit .217/.286/.304 while striking out 45 times in 126 trips to the plate. The Giants kept him in Triple-A for the entire 2025 season. Luciano connected on 23 home runs while walking more than 15% of the time, but he struck out at a near-31% rate. He whiffed on more than 35% of his swings against Triple-A pitching. While Luciano hits the ball hard when he makes contact, the swing-and-miss and limited defensive profile have dropped his stock. He’s also out of minor league options, so he’ll need to stick on an MLB roster or continue bouncing around via DFA limbo.

Cheng is also a 24-year-old who had some prospect attention not too long ago. He was never as well regarded as Luciano was early in his career, yet he ranked among Pittsburgh’s top 10 prospects as recently as 2024. A lefty-hitting infielder, he appeared in his first three big league contests in April. He went 0-7 with three strikeouts and was caught stealing in his only attempt. He spent the rest of the season at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he managed a .207/.305/.267 line with one home run in 406 plate appearances.

The Taiwanese-born Cheng is a good athlete and a versatile defender, but he has been a below-average hitter since reaching the Double-A level in 2023. He has one option year remaining. Pittsburgh has five days to trade or waive both players.

Braves Sign Ian Hamilton To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced the signing of reliever Ian Hamilton to a one-year, non-guaranteed contract. Atlanta opened a 40-man roster spot this afternoon when they ran Anthony Molina through waivers. Hamilton is represented by ALIGND Sports Agency.

Hamilton hit the market last month when he was non-tendered by the Yankees. His projected arbitration salary wasn’t far above the league minimum, but he had spent the final two months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A. Hamilton made 36 appearances before being sent down. He pitched 40 innings of 4.28 ERA ball, striking out a quarter of opponents against a worrisome 13.3% walk rate.

The 30-year-old righty has pitched parts of six MLB seasons between the White Sox, Twins and Yankees. He had a career-best 2.64 ERA behind a 29% strikeout rate for New York back in 2023. His production hasn’t been as strong over the past couple years. Hamilton’s grounder rates have fallen while the free passes jumped this year. He gets plus swing-and-miss rates on his slider but hasn’t gotten great results on his 95-96 MPH sinker.

The 2025 season was Hamilton’s third and final minor league option year. He’ll battle for a middle relief spot in camp. If he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, the Braves would need to take him off the 40-man and either trade him or run him through waivers.

Hamilton has between three and five years of MLB service time. He’d therefore have the right to decline an outright assignment and elect free agency if the Braves get him through waivers unclaimed, but doing so would mean forfeiting his salary. If he pitches well enough to stick on the roster, Atlanta could control him via arbitration through 2028.

Atlanta doesn’t have a ton of roster flexibility with regards to the bullpen. Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez and Aaron Bummer are locked in at the back end. Dylan Lee has two minor league options but is certainly going to be on the roster. Hamilton, Joel Payamps, Danny Young and swing types Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, José Suarez and Joey Wentz are all out of options. While an injury or two in Spring Training could open roster space, they’re certainly not going to have room for all those pitchers on Opening Day.

Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images.

Note: This post initially incorrectly referred to Hamilton’s contract as a split deal.

Rangers Re-Sign Chris Martin

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The Rangers announced on Friday evening that they’ve brought back veteran right-hander Chris Martin on a one-year deal. The ISE Baseball client reportedly receives a $4MM guarantee that includes a deferred signing bonus. Texas had a couple of 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Not so long ago, it seemed like Martin was on his way out the door. Just over a year ago, in September of 2024, he said he was 95% sure that 2025 would be his final season. He turned 39 years old in June and made a few trips to the injured list during the campaign. The first IL stint was in May due to shoulder fatigue, followed by another in July due to a calf strain. Most ominously, his season was ended in late September due to a diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome.

Taken all together, it was fair to assume he would be hanging up his spikes. But just a few days ago, it was reported that he was planning to pitch in 2026. His current health status isn’t known but presumably the Rangers feel good about what he can contribute next year.

When he was healthy enough to be on the mound in 2025, his results were still good. He was still averaging in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker, while also mixing in a cutter, splitter, slider and knuckle curve. Long one of the best control pitchers in the majors, he tossed 42 1/3 innings while only walking 4.6% of batters faced. He also struck out 24.7% of opponents and got grounders on 42.6% of balls in play. Put that all together and he allowed 2.98 earned runs per nine innings for the year.

The Texas front office has been given some budgetary constraints over the past few years. Last winter, they put together their bullpen primarily via a series of small one-year deals. In addition to Martin, they also signed Hoby Milner, Luke Jackson, Jacob Webb and Shawn Armstrong. That actually ended up working quite well, as the Texas bullpen was pretty good in 2025. But since they limited themselves to one-year deals, almost the entire bullpen hit free agency at season’s end.

Going into 2026, they are looking to rebuild the relief corps but appear to again be working with limited resources. They recently signed lefty Tyler Alexander to a modest one-year deal. They also reportedly have an agreement with Alexis Díaz. The numbers on that deal haven’t been reported yet but it’s surely on the low side as well. Martin made $5.5MM in 2025. Given his age and the injuries he dealt with in 2025, he shouldn’t be in line for much of a raise, or any at all.

RosterResource currently projects the Rangers to have a 2026 payroll about $50MM lower than in 2025, but since they are expected to spend less on next year’s team, they should have less than $50MM to work with. They are looking to bolster the rotation and add a righty bat, but continuing to build out the bullpen is also on the to-do list.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Martin and the Rangers had a one-year deal. Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reported the guarantee and the deferred signing bonus. Photo courtesy of Lon Horwedel, D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images

Twins Sign Josh Bell

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The Twins announced the signing of free agent first baseman Josh Bell to a one-year deal with a mutual option. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client. Bell’s 2026 salary will be $5.5MM. He also receives a $250K signing bonus, and there’s a $1.25MM buyout on the mutual option.

Bell, 33, has been at least an average bat in every season of his decade-long MLB career, with the exception of a poor showing in the shortened 2020 campaign. At times, the former second-round pick and top prospect has looked on the cusp of breaking out as a star-level slugger — most notably in 2019 and 2021 — but he’s never quite produced as the steady power bat one might expect from a hulking 6’3″, 260-pound first baseman.

That’s largely due to the switch-hitting Bell’s penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. Despite his sizable frame and clearly plus raw power, Bell has struggled to maintain a swing path that allows him to elevate the ball. He’s cut his grounder rate in recent seasons, to be fair; last year’s 45.7% mark was actually the second-lowest of his career, ahead of only the 44% mark he posted during a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. However, that 45.7% mark was still well above the 41.8% league average. For a hitter like Bell, whose average sprint speed ranked in just the seventh percentile of big league position players, per Statcast, that much contact on the ground is a clear detriment.

When Bell does elevate the ball, he does so with tremendous authority. Statcast ranked his 96.4 mph average exit velocity on liners/fly-balls 25th among 251 qualified hitters. Bell’s isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .507 on fly-balls isn’t elite but is well north of the .436 league average. He popped 22 round-trippers this past season and has averaged 26 homers per 162 games over the past seven seasons — despite his proclivity for hitting the ball into the ground. It’s long been thought that if Bell could consistently elevate the ball, he’d be a high-end slugger, but six teams have now tried to get him to do so consistently and been unable to make it happen.

The end result is typically above-average but not elite offense. Bell hit .237/.325/.417 this past season with the Nationals. His 10.7% walk rate was comfortably north of average and roughly in line with his career 11.2% mark. His 16.5% strikeout rate was the second-lowest of his career. Bell had uncharacteristic struggles with his right-handed swing last season but has traditionally been a solid hitter from both sides of the dish (albeit with better production from the left side). His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate were his best marks since a strong 2021 season (also spent with the Nats).

The Twins and their fans can perhaps find some optimism in the trajectory of Bell’s 2025 season. He was one of the worst hitters in either league through the end of April but busted out of that slump with a huge showing in May. He took a step back in June and then delivered terrific production over the final three months of the year. Setting aside Bell’s awful first 125 plate appearances of the season (when he had a bloated 50% grounder rate, it should be noted), he hit .278/.358/.462 with 17 homers, 16 doubles, an 11.1% walk rate and a 14.6% strikeout rate. In 250 plate appearances from July 2 onward, he slashed .284/.371/.486 (with a ground-ball rate sitting at 42%).

That’ll be the sort of production for which the Twins hope in 2025. Bell figures to be the primary first baseman for new manager Derek Shelton, who briefly overlapped with Bell during his first season as manager in Pittsburgh. Like most teams, the Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, so Bell could get some looks there, too, if the Twins want to free up some first base time to get Edouard Julien or Kody Clemens into the lineup there. Some additional DH reps for Bell would benefit the team defensively; he posted solid grades at first base back in 2021-22, but Bell has been dinged for -20 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average over his past 1551 innings in the field. He’s not a skilled defender.

Even with those defensive shortcomings, Bell adds a legitimate bat to the middle of Minnesota’s order. He’s a durable veteran, having appeared in 91.5% of his teams’ possible games dating back to his first season as a full-time regular. That’s an average of better than 148 games per year, and it’s reasonable to expect at least 20 home runs based on his track record, with 25 to 30 not out of the question depending on the extent to which he can avoid falling into another grounder-heavy malaise.

Bell joins Byron Buxton, breakout rookie Luke Keaschall and catcher Ryan Jeffers in the top portion of a Twins lineup that’ll hope for better results from talented but inconsistent young hitters like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee and (if he’s not traded) Trevor Larnach. Top prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper could force their way into the mix next season. Alan Roden will get another chance to prove his big Triple-A production can play in the majors, too.

The signing of Bell only reinforces the fact that despite a deadline fire sale, the Twins are intent on adding back to the roster in an effort to be as competitive as possible in 2026. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey plans to hold onto stars like Buxton, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez rather than trade them. The Twins were reportedly shopping in the middle tiers of the free agent market at first base, and they’ll presumably use some of the modest budgetary space granted by ownership to add some low-cost relievers as well.

Bell adds $5.75MM to the 2026 payroll, boosting the Twins just north of $100MM in the process, per RosterResource. Dan Hayes of The Athletic has previously reported that the front office has about $20MM to spend this winter. That should mean Falvey, GM Jeremy Zoll and the rest of the front office still have a around $15MM to help deepen the bullpen and perhaps the bench. Given that the Twins shipped out a stunning five relievers at July’s deadline, it seems fair to presume they’ll bring in multiple arms (though they already added one with November’s acquisition of Eric Orze from Tampa Bay).

Overall, payroll will still be down considerably from last year’s $142MM Opening Day mark and certainly from 2023’s franchise-record $153MM. Major additions on either side of the ball shouldn’t be expected. If the Twins compete next season, it’ll be due to big steps forward from in-house talents like Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Roden, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and others. If they fall short of contending in a perennially competitive AL Central, then players like Bell and any of the forthcoming bullpen acquisitions could emerge as trade chips alongside Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and others.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides had agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the $7MM guarantee. Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune had the salary structure.

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