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Latest On Twins’ Offseason Direction

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Following the Twins’ deadline fire sale, the widespread expectation has been that they’d continue moving veteran players this offseason. That’s not necessarily the case. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic that his focus is on adding to the team, not subtracting, unless he “is told otherwise” by ownership. To this point, he has not given serious consideration to trading right-handers Pablo Lopez and/or Joe Ryan. The Pohlad family has reportedly not yet given the team’s front office a directive in terms of the budget for next season. If that eventual directive is to further lean into a rebuild, there might be another consequence: the potential acquiescence toward a trade from star center fielder Byron Buxton.

To this point, Buxton has made his desire to remain a Twin for his entire career clear. Even after this summer’s teardown of the roster, he emphasized that he had no plans to waive his no-trade clause and hoped to finish his career in Minnesota. The Twins’ offseason direction could put that loyalty to the test, as Hayes reports that Buxton might reconsider his stance if the team continues subtracting prominent players.

That’s hardly an announcement that Buxton wants out of Minnesota now, of course. It’s not impossible to see the bones of a competitive club in what the Twins still have on the roster. Lopez and Ryan are an excellent one-two combo atop the rotation. Bailey Ober had a rough 2025 season but was a quality mid-rotation arm for several years prior.

Beyond those three, Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and David Festa are all young starters with mid-rotation upside who were considered top-100 prospects before debuting in the majors. The viability of that group will mostly be decided by the futures of veterans like Lopez, Ryan and Ober, though.

While 2025 was disappointing for infielders Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, no one should be surprised if the pair of former top prospects take a step forward next year and become the sort of high-end regulars Minnesota was hoping they could be when selecting each with a top-10 overall pick. Additional young talent is on the way as well, ranging from top outfield prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez to young infielder Luke Keaschall, who impressed in 207 plate appearances this year. Ryan Jeffers is already a quality regular behind the plate. Outfielders like Matt Wallner and Alan Roden have posted huge numbers in the minors, with the former enjoying some big league success at times (but also lacking consistency). Adding a reliable bat at first base could give the Twins the makings of a decent lineup.

Last summer’s flurry of trades slashed spending enough that the Twins project for a payroll of just $95MM next year, per RosterResource, down more than $40MM from last year’s Opening Day mark. It’s fair to wonder whether those savings will be reinvested or whether further cuts will be made. If it’s the latter, or if the front office is only given minimal space to add, then Lopez (owed $21.75MM in each of the next two seasons), Ryan (arbitration-eligible through 2027) and Jeffers (arb-eligible through 2026) are natural candidates to be moved.

It would be quite an intriguing turnaround if the Twins decided to make a run at contending in 2026, though they would have to rebuild essentially the entire bullpen. Prior to the deadline, they traded away Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart.

Should the Twins go the other way and end up dealing from that group of quality veterans, perhaps Buxton would reconsider his previously stated desire to be a Twin for life. The soon to be 32-year-old veteran will make $45MM total over the final three seasons of the extension he signed in Minnesota. He can tack on an additional $10MM of earnings each season based on plate appearances and MVP voting.

That’s a bargain for the production he provides, with a .270/.330/.540 batting line (138 wRC+), 53 home runs, 31 steals and 8.7 fWAR in 228 games the past two years. If he was available, virtually any team in baseball would have interest in bringing Buxton into the fold. Big-spending contenders like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Mets all figure to be on the hunt for outfield help this winter, and if Buxton did decide to waive his no-trade clause he’d likely be able to have his pick of the litter in terms of destinations thanks to his favorable contract situation and excellent production.

Those big spending clubs wouldn’t be the only teams with interest if Buxton were to make himself available, and perhaps a team like the Astros or even Rays with payroll limitations but a strong commitment to winning nonetheless could get involved as well. Buxton’s commitment to the Twins over the years has shown he’s not afraid to try to win in a smaller market than New York or Los Angeles, though if he was to depart Minnesota it would surely be done with getting to the World Series firmly in mind after winning just one playoff series during his time with Minnesota.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Pursuits

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The Jays came so close to winning it all in 2025 and all signs point to them being aggressive in reloading for 2026. From the General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet as well as Mitch Bannon of The Athletic report that all signs point to the Jays being strongly involved in various markets, including starting pitchers, relievers and position players.

That’s not surprising framing. The Jays have been one of the more active clubs in recent winters, which has included pursuits of big names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and others. Though they missed on those guys, they have signed seven different free agents to deals of at least three years in length over the past five years. Those were George Springer, Anthony Santander, Kevin Gausman, Yariel Rodríguez, Jeff Hoffman, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt. They are fresh off a deep playoff run that presumably swelled the coffers a bit and could reinvest some of that into the roster.

Adding to the bullpen would be a logical move, as Toronto’s relief corps was middling this year. The club’s relievers had a collective 3.98 earned run average, which placed them 16th out of the 30 major league teams. They added Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland at the deadline but Domínguez is now a free agent. The closer, Hoffman, posted a 4.37 ERA and could be open to moving to a setup role.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Jays and Dodgers are two clubs expected to pursue Pete Fairbanks, who just became a free agent when the Rays declined his player option. Though the Dodgers just won the title, they did so despite their bullpen falling apart throughout the year. Manager Dave Roberts leaned heavily on his starters through the playoffs, which included using all of Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game Seven of the World Series.

Fairbanks would make sense on a lot of clubs but the Dodgers and Jays are certainly two of them. He spent the last three years as the closer in Tampa, saving at least 23 games in each of those seasons. He also finished each season with an ERA below 3.58, including a 2.83 mark in 2025.

However, there are some yellow flags with Fairbanks. Injuries have been a big part of his career. 2025 was the first time he ever reached the 50-inning plateau in a season. Though he has continued to have good results in the ERA department, other numbers are less encouraging. Over 2022 and 2023, he struck out 39.1% of batters faced, but he was down to 24% over the two most recent seasons. His velocity also dropped two ticks, as he was around 99 miles per hour with his fastball in 2022-23 but has been closer to 97 mph since then.

Teams should still be interested in Fairbanks but the declines have presumably impacted his market. The Rays had an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout, a net $10MM decision. They presumably tried to trade Fairbanks before declining that and didn’t find too much interest. Teams are usually wary of committing money so early in the offseason but someone would have jumped if they felt that was a bargain.

He could get a one-year deal somewhere in the vicinity of that option price but a multi-year pact at a similar annual value is also possible. The Dodgers and Jays, as well as almost any other club, could easily afford that.

But Fairbanks is just one of dozens of options on the relief market. Bannon mentions Phil Maton and Tyler Kinley as possible fits, seemingly in speculative fashion. Maton has been putting up good numbers for years but the market hasn’t paid him, presumably because he barely gets his velo over 90 mph. His past two trips to free agency have led to modest one-year deals. He got $6.5MM from the Rays going into 2024 and $2MM from the Cardinals last winter.

Dating back to the start of 2022, Maton has thrown 257 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He was even better in 2025, with a 2.79 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.4% grounder rate. He’s generally one of the best pitchers in the league in terms of minimizing hard contract, which was still the case this year. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate were all in at least the 98th percentile of pitchers, according to Statcast. That strong season should earn him a raise but the market has already shrugged him off twice, so he shouldn’t break the bank.

Kinley has spent most of his career pitching for the Rockies, so he has some big ERAs on his track record. However, he finished 2025 strong. Atlanta acquired him at the deadline and then Kinley posted a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings once he was away from Coors Field. There was some good luck in there but his 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were decent figures. Despite that finish, Atlanta turned down a $5.5MM club option, going for a $750K buyout instead. If that’s any indication of how the market perceives him, he should be very affordable for the Jays or any club.

Turning to the rotation, general manager Ross Atkins has already indicated that starting pitching will be a target. There are many ways to do that and Bannon reports that the Jays are going after the guys at the top of the market.

As Bannon mentions, the top free agent starters available are guys like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Tatsuya Imai. MLBTR predicted those four to each get deals of at least five years with a guarantee of at least $115MM. The Jays have gone to that range with a pitcher before, as their aforementioned Gausman deal was for $110MM over five years. Depending on how the markets for these pitchers play out, landing one might require stretching a bit farther. MLBTR predicted Cease to get $189MM over seven years, while Valdez and Imai each got $150MM predictions, Valdez over five and Imai over six.

The Jays got a gift when Shane Bieber decided not to opt out of his deal. He took a $16MM salary for 2026 instead of a $4MM buyout, effectively taking $12MM while spurning the chance to head to free agency in search of more. That leaves the Jays with a rotation core of Gausman, Bieber and Trey Yesavage. They should have José Berríos at the back somewhere, as he is expected to be healthy by next year.

Guys like Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, Lázaro Estrada and others could compete for a final spot, but the club would be in a better position if they brought in someone else. Lauer could be bumped to #6 and a long relief role if everyone is healthy, while the others could pitch in Triple-A. It would also make sense to sign someone beyond 2026, as Gausman and Bieber are slated for free agency a year from now, while Berríos will have an opt-out chance at that point as well.

A big strike on the position player side is also an option. Bringing back Bo Bichette is already known to be on the table. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported this week that Bichette is getting a lot of interest as a shortstop but also from clubs who need help at second and third base. Bichette’s shortstop defense has never been strong and he has dealt with numerous lower-body injuries in recent years. He finished 2025 playing second base for the Jays in the World Series, after missing several weeks due to a knee injury.

It’s unknown if Bichette will have strong preferences about his defensive home or if he just wants to secure the biggest payday. For the Jays, they probably prefer to keep Andrés Giménez at short since he’s a slick defender, but it’s unknown if they would be willing to put Bichette back at that spot in order to lure him back to Toronto.

There’s also a bit of smoke about a run at Kyle Tucker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned the possibility a few times in a column earlier this week. Both Bannon and Nicholson-Smith/Davidi column address the Tucker rumors but both suggest pitching is likely to be a bigger priority.

The Jays certainly could go after Tucker, even though he is likely to be quite expensive. MLBTR predicted he could land a $400MM guarantee over 11 years. As mentioned up top, the Jays have made strong runs at players above that stratosphere before and they gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension.

The current outfield mix includes Springer, Santander, Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider. They don’t need Tucker in there but he would make the group stronger. Loperfido still has options while Barger and Schneider can play the infield. Springer, Varsho and Straw are all slated for free agency after 2026. Straw’s deal has club options for 2027 and 2028 but they might be a bit pricey for a bench outfielder like him. By 2027, it’s possible those three are gone with Santander moving into the designated hitter spot. It’s possible that guys like Yohendrick Pinango or RJ Schreck could come up and fill the void by then but Tucker would give the Jays more long-term certainty on the grass/turf.

At this stage of the offseason, there are still many paths available to the Jays. The report from Nicholson-Smith and Davidi characterizes them as involved everywhere but not desperate, so perhaps it’s not wise to expect their aggression to lead to a quick deal. They may slow-play things and look for opportunities to open up to them, depending on how the various markets develop.

An unknown factor is how much they will have to spend. RosterResource projects them for a $235MM payroll in 2026, which gives them more than $20MM of wiggle room relative to the $258MM payroll they had at the end of 2025. President Mark Shapiro has said that he doesn’t expect the payroll to go down next year. Around $20MM would not be enough to do everything mentioned here, but it’s possible the deep playoff run in 2025 will prompt the Jays to nudge the payroll up a bit.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Austin Nola To Become Mariners’ Bullpen Coach

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Catcher Austin Nola is expected to rejoin Seattle’s organization as bullpen coach, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nola will be released from the minor league deal he signed with Atlanta last month, adds Nightengale. The transition into coaching suggests Nola is wrapping up his playing career after six MLB seasons. Seattle has yet to announce the hiring.

Tony Arnerich served as Seattle’s bullpen coach and catching instructor last season. He was initially hired as hitting coach in 2022, a role he held for two seasons. Arnerich was moved to the bullpen position in 2024. The Mariners have yet to announce any change to Arnerich’s role or any other adjustments to the coaching staff.

Nola was drafted by the Marlins in 2012. He spent seven seasons in the minors with the organization, never reaching the big leagues. Nola signed a minor league deal with the Mariners ahead of the 2019 season, and he would make his major league debut later that year. He stepped into semi-regular playing time in a versatile role with Seattle, making starts at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and right field. Nola slashed a solid .269/.342/.454 over 79 games that season.

Nola was dealt to the Padres in the middle of the 2020 campaign. The seven-player deal featured mostly part-time players, though Seattle netted reliever Andres Munoz in the return. Munoz had just 23 MLB innings under his belt at the time, but would go on to become a fixture in the Mariners’ bullpen, earning All-Star nods the past two seasons.

San Diego received decent production from Nola across multiple seasons. He posted a 101 wRC+ over 56 games in 2021. Nola mostly played catcher, along with a handful of appearances in the infield. Nola took over as the Padres’ primary backstop in 2022, setting career highs in games (110) and plate appearances (397) while recording a .649 OPS. After hitting just .146 over 52 games in 2023, Nola found himself in Triple-A. He didn’t reach the majors in 2024, spending the year in Kansas City’s minor league system. Nola latched on with Colorado this past season. He went 7-for-41 in a brief stint with the Rockies. Nola was designated for assignment and then outrighted off the 40-man roster in August.

If this is it for Nola, he’ll conclude his playing career with a .247/.323/.364 slash line across 1,237 plate appearances. He hit 24 home runs and chipped in three stolen bases.

Padres Notes: Rotation, Arraez, Adam

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The Padres’ top priority in the offseason was plain for anyone to see. Even before the announcement that Yu Darvish would miss the 2026 season following UCL surgery, San Diego was already faced with the potential losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, has an opt-out opportunity next offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller removed any modicum of doubt about his to-do list at this week’s GM Meetings, telling Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that “especially with King and Cease in free agency and Darvish’s injury, [starting pitching] is probably our top need going into the offseason.”

More notably, Acee reports that San Diego seems unlikely to play at the top of the market in its quest for rotation help. The Padres have already been exploring the trade market for potential options, per the report. King and Cease both received qualifying offers and seem likely to reject in search of more lucrative multi-year deals. Acee suggests that the Padres will “almost certainly” be moving on from both pitchers. Assuming that’s the case, San Diego will get a pair of draft picks as compensation — though their status as a luxury tax payor means those picks will come after the fourth round rather than after the first round.

At present, the Padres’ rotation includes Pivetta, Joe Musgrove (returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery) and a slew of question marks. JP Sears struggled after coming over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Randy Vasquez posted a solid-looking 3.84 ERA but did so with one of MLB’s worst strikeout rates. Metrics like FIP (4.85) and SIERA (5.43) feel he’s due for major regression. Matt Waldron couldn’t replicate his 2024 form. The rest of the depth was thinned out when Preller traded Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Braden Nett and Henry Baez in deadline trades to acquire catcher Freddy Fermin (Bergert, Kolek) and the aforementioned Miller (Nett, Baez).

Preller acknowledged to both Acee and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the Padres could again consider moving a reliever to the rotation, as they’ve successfully done in the past with King, Kolek and Seth Lugo. It’s something the club will explore, but Preller noted that in past instances of the Padres making such a move, he only did so when the reliever in question was enthusiastic about the move. Acee notes that moving a reliever to the rotation seems unlikely at present. He lists Miller and Adrian Morejon as possible candidates, as does Lin, who adds righty David Morgan as a possibility for the switch. However, Preller cautioned against depleting the strength of his bullpen, which is already losing Robert Suarez, and noted that it’s important to make sure his club doesn’t end up with “two mediocre units” (referring to his rotation and bullpen).

Though the focus is on the rotation, it’s not the Padres’ only need. Preller tells Robert Murray of FanSided that his club has interest in retaining first baseman Luis Arraez, who’s a free agent for the first time this winter.

The 28-year-old Arraez (29 in April) spent most of the 2024 season and all of 2025 in San Diego after being traded over from Miami. This past season was arguably Arraez’s worst in seven major league seasons. He yet again posted a quality batting average, but not to his usual extent, and he did so with even lesser on-base and slugging marks than usual. Arraez’s .292/.327/.392 is well shy of the career .323/.372/.418 line he carried into the 2025 season.

Arraez feels more like a luxury than a need for the Padres, who could plug in Gavin Sheets at first base as an affordable option or utilize Jake Cronenworth at first and give Sheets more of a DH role. That’d allow the club to pursue middle infielders, with Xander Bogaerts capable of handling either shortstop (as he did in 2025) or second base (as he did in 2024). Arraez doesn’t seem likely to break the bank given the lack of punch and on-base heft behind his perennially strong batting average, but if the Padres plan to focus primarily on rotation help, even a relatively modest two- or three-year deal for Arraez might not be in the cards.

One other question facing San Diego this winter is the health of setup man Jason Adam. The right-hander suffered a season-ending tendon rupture in his quadriceps in early September but is on the road to recovery. Adam tells Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune that there’s a chance he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though he could be cutting it close. Adam says he expects to pitch at some point in spring training but may not be “right on time.” He and the team aren’t ruling out Opening Day, which is a clear goal, but he cautions that he “won’t be stupid about” his recovery and risk a setback.

The 34-year-old Adam has risen from relative obscurity to staking a legitimate claim as one of MLB’s top setup arms. Dating back to 2022, he’s pitched to a combined 2.07 ERA, including three seasons with a sub-2.00 mark (and a 2.98 ERA in his “down” year in 2023). Along the way, Adam has fanned 29.2% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. Since 2022, only three relievers — Tyler Rogers, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax — have more holds than Adam’s 92.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $6.8MM salary for Adam next season. That’s his final year of club control, so if he were expected to miss a notable portion of the season, Adam would’ve been a natural non-tender candidate, despite his excellence. The fact that he’s now citing Opening Day as a realistic target makes it far likelier that he’s back, though if the Padres are particularly crunched for payroll space — a 2026 budget remains unclear — then they could feasibly look to move Adam for a modest return and reallocate those dollars toward the rotation.

Even with Suarez opting out and Adam in limbo health-wise, the Padres still boast a deep late-inning group with Miller, Morejon (2.08 ERA), Morgan (2.66 ERA as a rookie) and Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA, 35.5 K%) all still in the fold. A healthy Adam would give San Diego one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.

Latest On Cubs, Shota Imanaga

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The Cubs are headed into this offseason prioritizing pitching additions, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (including Robert Murray of FanSided) yesterday. Hoyer noted that the club already has “a lot of position players,” which will lead them to prioritize giving a boost to both the rotation and bullpen.

It’s not necessarily a shocking update. While star outfielder Kyle Tucker’s free agency leaves a hole in the middle of Chicago’s lineup, it’s long seemed as though he was likely to end up elsewhere upon reaching free agency given the Cubs’ hesitance when it comes to giving out top-of-the-market contracts. Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract signed back during the 2015-2016 offseason remains the largest deal in Cubs history, and Tucker is expected to at least double that figure. While Hoyer told Murray that he’ll “be talking to” Tucker’s representation and was effusive in his praise of the four-time All-Star, a focus on pitching makes more sense given that hesitance to spend at the top of the market and Chicago’s roster outlook.

The Cubs already have everyday players locked into the majority of the spots on their roster. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are one of the league’s top middle infield duos, Ian Happ is the franchise’s longest-tenured player who just earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove in left field, while Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong have cemented themselves as core pieces at first base and in center field. Seiya Suzuki is also sure to be in the lineup on an everyday basis, whether that’s in right field or as the team’s DH. Things seem more or less settled behind the plate as well after a career year for Carson Kelly, with Miguel Amaya and Reese McGuire both in the fold to help back up the veteran as well.

If the Cubs were going to make an addition to the lineup, adding a corner outfielder or DH (wherever Suzuki isn’t playing) or a third baseman would make the most sense. Even then, however, the Cubs have a group of up-and-coming young position players who could get full-season looks next year like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcantara. Shaw’s 93 wRC+ in 126 games last year, including a 130 wRC+ after the All-Star break, makes it easy to justify giving him runway at the hot corner next year. While none of Caissie, Ballesteros, or Alcantara has received substantial playing time in the majors yet, between the three of them it’s not unreasonable for Chicago to think they could mostly handle one spot in the lineup.

By contrast, the pitching staff clearly needs work. Shota Imanaga is now a free agent, and with Justin Steele’s return date uncertain coming off Tommy John surgery the only pitchers locked into rotation spots for Opening Day next year are mid-rotation veterans Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon as well as Rookie of the Year runner-up Cade Horton. Even among that group, there’s some red flags. Boyd has a lengthy injury history and only just enjoyed his first healthy season since 2019. Horton ended the season on the injured list and missed nearly all of 2024 due to a shoulder strain. Taillon missed around two months due to calf and groin issues. While players like Colin Rea and Javier Assad are viable starters in their own right, they’re best served as swing options.

That leaves room for a rotation addition or two, and there’s plenty of interesting arms who could make an impact for the Cubs this winter. Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez might price themselves out of the Cubs’ comfort zone, but either would still be far less expensive than Tucker. Chicago has done well courting NPB talent in the past, so perhaps right-hander Tatsuya Imai could be a fit. Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff, and Zac Gallen are among the many names who the Cubs could look to bring into the fold.

That doesn’t mean a reunion with Imanaga can be ruled out, however. The Cubs extended the southpaw a qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason last week, and he’ll need to decide in the coming days whether or not to accept that one-year, $22.05MM offer. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Imanaga is expected to decline that offer, but that wouldn’t necessarily rule out a return even if he does so. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that the sides could look to reunite on a two-year deal this winter, which could come either before or after the QO deadline next week.

Reuniting with Imanaga would be a gamble, given the uncertain nature of Wrigley Field’s park factors and Imanaga’s struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Even so, however, it’s at least plausible that being attached to draft pick compensation dampens Imanaga’s market enough that a return to the Cubs makes sense for him. Chicago seems unlikely to participate in a bidding war for his services after declining a three-year, $54MM option on his services at the outset of the offseason, but if Imanaga were considering accepting the QO a two-year deal could theoretically allow the Cubs to lower the hit they’ll face for luxury tax purposes while also creating some additional security for Imanaga.

As for the bullpen, the Cubs are in need of reinforcements there most of all. Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, and Andrew Kittredge were all key high leverage arms for the team this season but are no longer with the club; the former three are free agents, while the latter was traded to Baltimore to avoid the buyout on his club option. That leaves Chicago with little certainty in the bullpen outside of Daniel Palencia, but reporting has suggested they won’t be very involved on top free agent relief arms like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams. That still leaves a number of interesting veterans who could be had a one- or two-year deals, however, like Kenley Jansen and Pete Fairbanks.

MLBTR Podcast: Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

Kodai Senga Garnering Trade Interest

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Mets right-hander Kodai Senga has already garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. The Mets aren’t known to be outright shopping the 2023 Rookie of the Year runner-up, but they’ve at least held discussions as they’ve been approached by interested teams.

Those who don’t follow the Mets closely might raise an eyebrow at the idea of a win-now club like the Mets trading a pitcher who carries a flat 3.00 ERA in 285 innings across 52 MLB starts. That includes a tidy 3.02 ERA in 113 1/3 innings this past season. However, Senga’s standing in the organization fell in the second half of the 2025 campaign. After a shoulder injury limited him to just one start in 2024, Senga returned on a hot streak, posting a 1.74 ERA in his first 13 trips to the mound.

That superlative production never appeared fully sustainable. Senga’s 23.9% strikeout rate was good but not great, and his 10.6% walk rate was nearly two percentage points higher than average. His .251 average on balls in play and 88% strand rate both seemed ripe for regression. Still, metrics like FIP (3.24) and SIERA (4.28) felt he was still a quality or at least serviceable arm even if his ERA was bound to take some steps back.

Senga sustained a calf strain in mid-June that sent him to the injured list for nearly one month. It’s a fairly innocuous-sounding injury, but whether he rushed back too soon or simply developed some bad mechanical habits while compensating for the resulting discomfort, the rest of Senga’s season was a nightmare. From July 11 through Aug. 31, he took the ball nine times and turned in a 5.90 ERA with a diminished 20.6% strikeout rate and an even more problematic 12.7% walk rate. And after allowing just 0.59 homers per nine innings in his first 13 starts, Senga’s HR/9 mark more than tripled during that miserable nine-start stretch (1.82).

The Mets optioned Senga to Triple-A — a move to which the right-hander had to consent — in hopes of getting him back on track. Senga, however, didn’t return to the majors in the season’s final month. The Mets rode a contingent of rookies down the stretch, leaning heavily on Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat in the rotation as the eventually narrowly missed a return to postseason play.

The fact that Senga didn’t return to the majors leaves him as something of a question mark. He made two starts in Triple-A following his demotion: one very good (six innings, one run, eight strikeouts, no walks) and another very poor (3 2/3 innings, four runs, two walks, one hit batter, four strikeouts). It’s difficult to glean exactly which version of Senga will show up. Outstanding as he was during his rookie season, injuries and this year’s second-half struggles have limited him to a total of 146 innings (majors and minors combined) across the past two seasons.

If the Mets had four healthy, mostly established other options in the rotation, it’d be easier to simply hope for a Senga rebound. They lack that stability, however. New York’s rotation will surely include McLean, who dazzled as a rookie. Veteran David Peterson finished with a respectable 4.22 ERA but faceplanted down the stretch, pitching to an 8.42 ERA over his final nine starts. Reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes had a successful move to the rotation but only pitched beyond five innings four times in his final 18 appearances and posted ugly strikeout and walk rates in that time (15.8 K%, 10.6 BB%). Sean Manaea posted a 5.64 ERA in just 60 2/3 frames thanks to injuries. Frankie Montas and Tylor Megill both had UCL surgery. Tong and Sproat have sizable upside but remain unproven.

Given all that tumult in the starting staff, rotation help is a natural priority for the Mets this winter. That only makes uncertainty surrounding Senga all the more confounding. On the one hand, selling low on a pitcher who has often looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm and is at least ostensibly healthy seems like a risk the team can ill afford to take. On the other hand, Senga’s uneven 2025 season is a driving factor behind the Mets’ current rotation instability. If they’re not confident he can get back on track, moving him now would be prudent. It’d only become more difficult to deal Senga if he suffers an early injury or pitches poorly despite a clean bill of health.

The Mets owe Senga $14MM in both 2026 and 2027. If he suffers a major elbow injury that requires surgery, a conditional $15MM club option would be tacked onto the deal. A total guarantee of two years and $28MM is eminently affordable, although the Mets are effectively paying double that amount since they’re being hit with a 110% tax on all dollars spent over the top tier of the luxury tax threshold.

Senga’s contract included a full no-trade clause covering the first three seasons of the five-year pact. That’s now shrunk to a limited 10-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. The list of teams to which he can block a move isn’t clear at present, but the Mets have more latitude to trade him than in the past.

New York certainly isn’t going to just dump the remainder of Senga’s contract for no return. There’s far too much upside, particularly relative to his modest salary. Any team looking to pry Senga loose will have to offer up some actual talent, though clearly not as much as Senga would command were he coming off a healthy, successful season. Then again, if Senga were coming off that type of season, the very idea of trading him would be a nonstarter for the Mets. Questions about his health, mechanics and results have at least nudged Senga onto the periphery of the trade market, but those same factors also make him an incredibly tricky asset on which to find common ground with another club.

The Opener: GM Meetings, Cy Young, Free Agent Prediction Contest

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As the offseason continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. GM Meetings continue:

The GM Meetings began yesterday, and with the league’s top decision-makers all in one place the rumor mill is sure to stay busy. Some teams (e.g. Pirates, D-backs) took the opportunity to try and stamp out trade rumors surrounding their top players. For many others (e.g. Mets, Dodgers, Braves, Royals) there have already been some hints to where their priorities in free agency and/or on the trade market lie. As this week’s meetings continue, more information should come forward in the form of both public-facing comments from MLB’s front office bosses and sourced reports from behind the scenes. While it’s unusual for substantial transactions to happen this early in the calendar — next month’s Winter Meetings are a much larger source of actual action — its not impossible that an early move or two could occur this week in addition to the usual rumors and intrigue.

2. Cy Young Awards to be announced:

This year’s Cy Young Award winners will be announced tonight, though there doesn’t seem to be much debate as to who’ll win this year’s hardware. Pirates righty Paul Skenes and Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal have seemed likely to lock up the awards for quite some time now, and there’s little reason to expect an upset in either case. It would be Skenes’ first career Cy Young Award after he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished as a finalist in Cy Young voting last season. For Skubal, this would be his second consecutive AL Cy Young win. The other finalists in the NL are Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez and Dodgers right-hander (and 2025 World Series MVP) Yoshinobu Yamamoto. In the AL, Skubal is joined by Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet and Astros ace Hunter Brown.

3. Join the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest!

Last week, we here at MLBTR published our 2025-26 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions list. As is the case every year, that list coincides with the announcement of our annual Free Agent Prediction Contest! $900 in cash prizes, as well as one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office are available to the contestants who have the most success in guessing where the league’s top free agents will ultimately land this winter. The contest closes tomorrow night, so be sure to get your predictions in while you still can!

MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Tigers, Trades

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This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Tim asks:

I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.

Ben asks:

After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?

These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.

The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them.  By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton.  The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.

Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.  Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career.  Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain.  While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.

I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does.  Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles.  The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.

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Braves Focused On Shortstop, Rotation Early In Offseason

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There’s not a whole lot of mystery surrounding the Braves’ offseason needs. Ha-Seong Kim declining his player option leaves them back at square one at shortstop. They need more depth in a rotation that was battered by injury. They’re potentially losing three high-leverage relievers (Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson and Tyler Kinley) to free agency.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said on Tuesday that starting pitching and shortstop will take precedence early in the offseason. “We’re going to focus on those spots,” he told reporters (relayed by David O’Brien of The Athletic). “We’ll see where those lead us, what the acquisition costs are and all that, and then we’ll turn our attention to the bullpen.”

The Braves more or less telegraphed that course of action when they declined their club options on Johnson and Kinley. The latter was particularly surprising, as Kinley could have been retained for $5.5MM. That seemed a bargain price for a pitcher who’d turned in a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings after a deadline deal with the Rockies. Johnson seemed a slightly easier cut given his rocky finish to the season, but he’d still been a generally effective high-leverage arm over two and a half seasons with the Braves.

Cutting Kinley and Johnson saved the Braves $11.5MM. Another $16MM came off the books once Kim opted out. Some of that is offset by raises for Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López. The Braves have $176.5MM committed to 12 players, though they’re likely to have one of the sport’s lightest arbitration classes. Dylan Lee and Nick Allen might be the only two arbitration-eligible players whom they tender contracts, and they’d project for less than $4MM between the two of them.

The Braves opened last season with a player payroll around $208MM. They should have a decent amount of spending capacity to at least make middle-tier free agent additions akin to last winter’s Jurickson Profar pickup. Their claim of Kim in the first place indicated they were willing to pay him $16MM. He’s presumably still their main target at shortstop, where there simply aren’t many alternatives.

Bo Bichette is the only other free agent regular at the position. He’d obviously be far more expensive than Kim would. The trade market looks barren, especially if the Nationals don’t want to trade CJ Abrams to a division rival. Maybe there’ll be a long shot trade option like J.P. Crawford or Ezequiel Tovar, but the likelier outcome is that the Braves would either need to stick with Allen or trade for a similarly low-upside stopgap if they don’t get a Kim deal done.

The rotation currently projects as Sale, Strider, López, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep. That’d be an excellent group if all five pitchers made 30+ starts, but that’s not realistic. All but Waldrep missed time last season. López made just one start before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Schwellenbach broke his elbow and missed the second half. Sale is going into his age-37 season. Grant Holmes may or may not be able to pitch through an elbow sprain. The Braves can’t run things back with only Bryce Elder, Didier Fuentes, and maybe Alek Manoah as their depth arms.

Atlanta has not spent big on free agent pitching under Anthopoulos (though they reportedly made a run at Aaron Nola before he re-signed with Philadelphia on a seven-year deal). Could that change this offseason? Georgia native Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Michael King and Zac Gallen are among the more notable free agent starters available.

Luke Weaver and Brad Keller are candidates for the mid-tier “reliever to starter” conversion contract which the Braves tried with López. The Braves have one of the weakest farm systems in MLB, which would put them at a disadvantage in a bidding war for a top controllable trade candidate like Joe Ryan. They could accommodate a decent-sized salary on the trade market, though, which perhaps brings someone like Sonny Gray, Luis Severino, Robbie Ray or Jack Flaherty into play if they’re looking for a mid-rotation source of innings.

Emphasizing the rotation and shortstop could leave them looking for cheaper bullpen targets later in the winter. Lee, Bummer and Joe Jiménez (who missed all of last season rehabbing knee surgery) are their top internal options at the back end. They’ll need to add at least one right-hander who can pitch in leverage spots while overhauling the middle innings group.

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