The Jays came so close to winning it all in 2025 and all signs point to them being aggressive in reloading for 2026. From the General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet as well as Mitch Bannon of The Athletic report that all signs point to the Jays being strongly involved in various markets, including starting pitchers, relievers and position players.
That’s not surprising framing. The Jays have been one of the more active clubs in recent winters, which has included pursuits of big names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and others. Though they missed on those guys, they have signed seven different free agents to deals of at least three years in length over the past five years. Those were George Springer, Anthony Santander, Kevin Gausman, Yariel Rodríguez, Jeff Hoffman, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt. They are fresh off a deep playoff run that presumably swelled the coffers a bit and could reinvest some of that into the roster.
Adding to the bullpen would be a logical move, as Toronto’s relief corps was middling this year. The club’s relievers had a collective 3.98 earned run average, which placed them 16th out of the 30 major league teams. They added Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland at the deadline but Domínguez is now a free agent. The closer, Hoffman, posted a 4.37 ERA and could be open to moving to a setup role.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Jays and Dodgers are two clubs expected to pursue Pete Fairbanks, who just became a free agent when the Rays declined his player option. Though the Dodgers just won the title, they did so despite their bullpen falling apart throughout the year. Manager Dave Roberts leaned heavily on his starters through the playoffs, which included using all of Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game Seven of the World Series.
Fairbanks would make sense on a lot of clubs but the Dodgers and Jays are certainly two of them. He spent the last three years as the closer in Tampa, saving at least 23 games in each of those seasons. He also finished each season with an ERA below 3.58, including a 2.83 mark in 2025.
However, there are some yellow flags with Fairbanks. Injuries have been a big part of his career. 2025 was the first time he ever reached the 50-inning plateau in a season. Though he has continued to have good results in the ERA department, other numbers are less encouraging. Over 2022 and 2023, he struck out 39.1% of batters faced, but he was down to 24% over the two most recent seasons. His velocity also dropped two ticks, as he was around 99 miles per hour with his fastball in 2022-23 but has been closer to 97 mph since then.
Teams should still be interested in Fairbanks but the declines have presumably impacted his market. The Rays had an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout, a net $10MM decision. They presumably tried to trade Fairbanks before declining that and didn’t find too much interest. Teams are usually wary of committing money so early in the offseason but someone would have jumped if they felt that was a bargain.
He could get a one-year deal somewhere in the vicinity of that option price but a multi-year pact at a similar annual value is also possible. The Dodgers and Jays, as well as almost any other club, could easily afford that.
But Fairbanks is just one of dozens of options on the relief market. Bannon mentions Phil Maton and Tyler Kinley as possible fits, seemingly in speculative fashion. Maton has been putting up good numbers for years but the market hasn’t paid him, presumably because he barely gets his velo over 90 mph. His past two trips to free agency have led to modest one-year deals. He got $6.5MM from the Rays going into 2024 and $2MM from the Cardinals last winter.
Dating back to the start of 2022, Maton has thrown 257 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He was even better in 2025, with a 2.79 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.4% grounder rate. He’s generally one of the best pitchers in the league in terms of minimizing hard contract, which was still the case this year. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate were all in at least the 98th percentile of pitchers, according to Statcast. That strong season should earn him a raise but the market has already shrugged him off twice, so he shouldn’t break the bank.
Kinley has spent most of his career pitching for the Rockies, so he has some big ERAs on his track record. However, he finished 2025 strong. Atlanta acquired him at the deadline and then Kinley posted a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings once he was away from Coors Field. There was some good luck in there but his 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were decent figures. Despite that finish, Atlanta turned down a $5.5MM club option, going for a $750K buyout instead. If that’s any indication of how the market perceives him, he should be very affordable for the Jays or any club.
Turning to the rotation, general manager Ross Atkins has already indicated that starting pitching will be a target. There are many ways to do that and Bannon reports that the Jays are going after the guys at the top of the market.
As Bannon mentions, the top free agent starters available are guys like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Tatsuya Imai. MLBTR predicted those four to each get deals of at least five years with a guarantee of at least $115MM. The Jays have gone to that range with a pitcher before, as their aforementioned Gausman deal was for $110MM over five years. Depending on how the markets for these pitchers play out, landing one might require stretching a bit farther. MLBTR predicted Cease to get $189MM over seven years, while Valdez and Imai each got $150MM predictions, Valdez over five and Imai over six.
The Jays got a gift when Shane Bieber decided not to opt out of his deal. He took a $16MM salary for 2026 instead of a $4MM buyout, effectively taking $12MM while spurning the chance to head to free agency in search of more. That leaves the Jays with a rotation core of Gausman, Bieber and Trey Yesavage. They should have José Berríos at the back somewhere, as he is expected to be healthy by next year.
Guys like Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, Lázaro Estrada and others could compete for a final spot, but the club would be in a better position if they brought in someone else. Lauer could be bumped to #6 and a long relief role if everyone is healthy, while the others could pitch in Triple-A. It would also make sense to sign someone beyond 2026, as Gausman and Bieber are slated for free agency a year from now, while Berríos will have an opt-out chance at that point as well.
A big strike on the position player side is also an option. Bringing back Bo Bichette is already known to be on the table. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported this week that Bichette is getting a lot of interest as a shortstop but also from clubs who need help at second and third base. Bichette’s shortstop defense has never been strong and he has dealt with numerous lower-body injuries in recent years. He finished 2025 playing second base for the Jays in the World Series, after missing several weeks due to a knee injury.
It’s unknown if Bichette will have strong preferences about his defensive home or if he just wants to secure the biggest payday. For the Jays, they probably prefer to keep Andrés Giménez at short since he’s a slick defender, but it’s unknown if they would be willing to put Bichette back at that spot in order to lure him back to Toronto.
There’s also a bit of smoke about a run at Kyle Tucker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned the possibility a few times in a column earlier this week. Both Bannon and Nicholson-Smith/Davidi column address the Tucker rumors but both suggest pitching is likely to be a bigger priority.
The Jays certainly could go after Tucker, even though he is likely to be quite expensive. MLBTR predicted he could land a $400MM guarantee over 11 years. As mentioned up top, the Jays have made strong runs at players above that stratosphere before and they gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension.
The current outfield mix includes Springer, Santander, Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider. They don’t need Tucker in there but he would make the group stronger. Loperfido still has options while Barger and Schneider can play the infield. Springer, Varsho and Straw are all slated for free agency after 2026. Straw’s deal has club options for 2027 and 2028 but they might be a bit pricey for a bench outfielder like him. By 2027, it’s possible those three are gone with Santander moving into the designated hitter spot. It’s possible that guys like Yohendrick Pinango or RJ Schreck could come up and fill the void by then but Tucker would give the Jays more long-term certainty on the grass/turf.
At this stage of the offseason, there are still many paths available to the Jays. The report from Nicholson-Smith and Davidi characterizes them as involved everywhere but not desperate, so perhaps it’s not wise to expect their aggression to lead to a quick deal. They may slow-play things and look for opportunities to open up to them, depending on how the various markets develop.
An unknown factor is how much they will have to spend. RosterResource projects them for a $235MM payroll in 2026, which gives them more than $20MM of wiggle room relative to the $258MM payroll they had at the end of 2025. President Mark Shapiro has said that he doesn’t expect the payroll to go down next year. Around $20MM would not be enough to do everything mentioned here, but it’s possible the deep playoff run in 2025 will prompt the Jays to nudge the payroll up a bit.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
