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Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner

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We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.

The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.

All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.

Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).

Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).

As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.

The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.

Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.

Scott Boras On Possibility Of Anthony Rendon Extension

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While quiet Nationals star Anthony Rendon elected not to participate in this year’s All-Star festivities — somehow the first time he has been selected — his less-than-taciturn agent was on hand and willing to discuss Rendon’s contract situation. As Todd Dybas of NBC Sports reports, Scott Boras certainly did not sound like a man who was close to wrapping up a contract for his client.

Engagement between the Nats and Rendon/Boras has seemingly been sporadic. There was an apparent uptick in activity recently, with Boras present in D.C. and reports indicating that the sides were negotiating in earnest. But the super-agent doused that flame, explaining: “I go to a lot of ballparks. It doesn’t mean we’re investing into anything that’s relevant to contract terms.”

Boras was content to press the obvious leverage he has gained over recent months. The mammoth Nolan Arenado extension removed a major market competitor and set a big price for top third-base talent before the season, with the surprisingly light Xander Bogaerts contract providing only a meager counterweight in terms of precedent. Rendon has since ramped up his already sterling resume to the point that Boras now has trouble embellishing. (Not that he wasn’t willing to dabble, labeling Rendon a “superstar” and at least hinting at a partial comparison to the peerless Mike Trout.)

A few choice quotes hint at Boras’s stance vis-a-vis a Nationals organization he has dealt with frequently:

  • “I think [Rendon’s] focused on the season.”
  • “I don’t know what their diagnostics are, but we’ll see as we approach the offseason.”
  • “It’s really in their corner as to how we go from there.”
  • “Ted and the Lerner family, and the organization, we’ve always worked out things — usually.” (an under-the-radar, instant Boras classic)

The takeaway is clear, if already obvious to the familiar Nats: Rendon’s camp is in the driver’s seat and in no rush to make a deal. Convincing him to forego a run at a market that’ll be mostly devoid of other top talent will take a major payday — one that the team may ultimately be willing to post. If there’s an ace in the hole for D.C., beyond its familiarity to Rendon, it may simply be that it’s the only place the reserved 29-year-old can line up his future without an attention-grabbing foray into free agency.

This Date In Transactions History: Athletics Land An Eventual Superstar

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Braves third baseman Josh Donaldson smacked his 200th career home run Sunday, a feat the Cubs were no doubt hoping he’d achieve in their uniform when they selected him 48th in the 2007 draft. The former Auburn Tiger never hit a single dinger for the club, though, and changed organizations a little over 12 months after the Cubs drafted him. It was exactly 11 years ago today, on July 8, 2008, that Chicago dealt Donaldson to Oakland. It’s now safe to say the Donaldson pickup has been among the best of A’s executive Billy Beane’s impressive tenure with the franchise.

Beane sent veteran right-handers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs, acquiring Donaldson, outfielders Eric Patterson and Matt Murton, and righty Sean Gallagher in return. When the deal was consummated, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted it was the Cubs’ counterattack after the NL Central rival Brewers acquired lefty CC Sabathia from the Indians the day before.

Sabathia just about willed the Brewers to the playoffs in 2008, though the eventual World Series champion Phillies overmatched them in the NLDS. The Cubs did finish well ahead of the Brewers en route to an NL Central crown that season, but they also fell in the NLDS, losing in a sweep against the Dodgers. While Harden struggled during his lone start in that series, the oft-injured hurler was highly effective for the Cubs when he was healthy enough to take the mound. All told, he turned in 38 starts and 212 innings of 3.31 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 as a Cub before leaving for the Rangers in free agency ahead of the 2010 season. Gaudin was nowhere near that productive, logging a 6.26 ERA in 27 1/3 innings with Chicago. He exited via free agency going into the 2009 campaign.

Both Hardin and Gaudin (especially the former) were useful A’s, but the team said goodbye to them despite possessing a 49-41 record at the time. Oakland was six behind the first-place Angels in the AL West and, in an era in which only one team earned a wild card, 3 1/2 back of a playoff spot. Beane insisted at the time it wasn’t a white flag move by Oakland, but the club fell apart thereafter and finished 75-86. However, Beane did say then, “I think we’ve taken a step forward for the next three to five years.”

It took a little longer than Beane wanted for the swap to bear fruit for the Athletics, though. None of Patterson, Murton or Gallagher amounted to much with the team. Donaldson, meanwhile, was a catcher prospect who took a half-decade from the trade to truly make his mark as a major league. While Donaldson did get to the majors in 2010 and then see extensive time with the A’s in 2012, his game took until 2013 to reach star-caliber heights. By then, Donaldson was no longer a catcher. The newly minted third baseman emphatically burst on the scene in ’13 with 7.3 fWAR and a 147 wRC+ in 668 plate appearances. Donaldson finished fourth in the AL MVP voting and helped the A’s to a 96-win, playoff-bound season in the process.

The A’s returned to the postseason in 2014, once again with significant help from Donaldson. He notched another 5.7 fWAR with a 130 wRC+ in 695 trips to the plate to wind up eighth in his league’s MVP balloting. Oakland couldn’t get past eventual AL champion Kansas City in the wild-card round that fall, though. Two months later, the A’s made the stunning decision to send Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, righty Kendall Graveman, infielder Franklin Barreto and lefty Sean Nolin.

Just as picking up Donaldson from the Cubs proved to be a steal for the Athletics, the same held true in the Blue Jays’ acquisition of the the player who became known as the Bringer of Rain. Donaldson went on to earn AL MVP honors in 2015, his debut season in Toronto and the first of two straight years in which the club advanced to the ALCS. He remained a force up north through 2017, but injuries marred his 2018, during which the rebuilding Blue Jays waved goodbye to the then-impending free agent in a trade with the Indians in August.

For Oakland, none of Lawrie, Graveman or Nolin delivered as hoped, nor have they produced much at any other major league stops since their stints with the Athletics concluded. The jury remains out on Barreto, just 23 years old, but the former top 100 prospect still hasn’t established himself as a major leaguer. However, perhaps Barreto will eventually realize his potential and make a Donaldson-like impact in the bigs. That seems highly improbable now, but nobody thought Donaldson would evolve into an elite player when Oakland scooped him up on this date 11 years ago.

Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Zack Wheeler

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The Red Sox and Mets are engaged in preliminary talks regarding New York righty Zack Wheeler, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Boston is said to be targeting a rotation addition after deciding to utilize Nathan Eovaldi in the bullpen.

Importantly, there’s no indication that a deal is close. And the Sox are far from alone in pursuit of Wheeler. The Braves, Brewers, and Yankees were all connected to him recently. Andy Martino of SNY.tv suggests that the Cubs are another possibility, though it’s unclear whether the clubs are in contact.

It’s unsurprising to hear tell of a robust slate of possible suitors for a pitcher who figures to be among the top rental arms available. That’s especially true given that Wheeler is earning just under $6MM this season, making him amply affordable for just about any team.

The salary factor is of particular note with regard to the Boston organization. While the club is one of the game’s most consistent spenders and is coming off of the bonanza of a World Series win, it is also walking a financial tightrope this year and doesn’t plan to extend its payroll much further.

It’s also notable to see the Fenway denizens connected at this stage to a top rental piece. The club isn’t exactly in prime position after a ho-hum start to the season. There’s a nine-game gap in the division, which is paced by a Yankees club that seems poised to make more impactful additions, and serious competition even for a Wild Card birth.

What’s most interesting of all here, perhaps, is the potential for a quick and active bidding situation. The Red Sox and Yankees are obviously aware of the implications of one or the other landing a particular player. With the Sox said to be looking to strike a relatively quick deal to bring in rotation help, they could conceivably force the market to move. If the Yanks see Wheeler as their preferred target, they might need to act decisively, setting up an intriguing dynamic involving the club’s chief on-field rival in Boston and its sole market competitor across the way in Queens.

Martino says the Mets “have shifted into a more aggressive sell mode,” which makes sense given their all-but-hopeless spot in the standings (ten games under .500, 13.5 out of the division lead, second-to-worst record in the National League). It may well behoove the team to get the jump on marketing its rental pieces, Wheeler in particular, while other teams try to wait until the last moment. But committing even to a limited sell-off — particularly this early, and especially if it involves the Yankees — would certainly represent a bitter pill for ownership and rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

What’s Wrong With Robinson Cano?

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We’re on the eve of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, an event second baseman Robinson Cano has received eight invitations to since his career began in 2005. The former Yankee and Mariner is clearly one of the most accomplished second basemen in baseball history. However, in 2019 – his first season as a Met – the 36-year-old Cano has looked nothing like his usual self. His subpar performance played a key part in a miserable first half for the Mets, who’ve endured a chaotic three-plus months and limped to a 40-50 record thus far.

The Cano acquisition was one of many bold offseason moves by first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the potential Hall of Famer’s former agent. While inexpensive closer Edwin Diaz was likely the real target in the Mets’ return from the Mariners in a blockbuster December trade, it’s obvious there was confidence in Cano on New York’s part. Otherwise, the club wouldn’t have taken on four years and $100MM of Cano to land Diaz. Unfortunately for the Mets, though, neither player has performed to expectations this year.

The sweet-swinging Cano entered the year a lifetime .304/.355/.493 hitter (127 wRC+) with 56.7 fWAR – the sixth-highest total among position players from 2005-18 – as well as 311 home runs in 8,841 plate appearances. He offered similarly excellent production last year, though a fractured right hand and an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension cut his season in half.

Cano’s 2018 ban didn’t scare off the Mets, for whom he has batted a weak .240/.287/.360 (74 wRC+) with a mere four HRs in 258 trips to the plate. Cano has also accounted for a ghastly minus-7 Defensive Runs and a minus-3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating at second, a position he has typically handled with aplomb. To make matters worse, the once-durable Cano has endured a pair of stints on the injured list because of quad problems. During the 65 games Cano has taken the field, he has posted minus-0.5 fWAR – a stark fall from grace for someone who logged 2.9 during his shortened 2018 and has exceeded the 3.0 mark in nine seasons.

If you’re looking for causes for Cano’s awful offensive production this season, start with a power outage. His ISO’s at .120, 69 points lower than the mean he recorded coming into this season. It’s also 60 points worse than the league-average figure and 18th from the bottom among 195 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA. As FanGraphs’ heatmaps indicate (pre-2019, this year), Cano typically showed a solid amount of power on the inner and outer halves of the strike zone before the current campaign. His power this year has been confined to the middle of the plate, though, and it’s not even as strong there anymore.

Cano’s still making plenty of hard contact – he ranks in the majors’ 83rd percentile in that category and its 77th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. But he’s pulling the ball less than ever, striking out a good amount more than he has in prior seasons and swinging and missing at a career-worst rate. A more aggressive approach – evidenced by a personal-high swing rate – hasn’t panned out, as shown by a career-low contact percentage.

When Cano has put the bat on the ball, he has only registered a .283 batting average on balls in play – down 36 points compared to 2005-18. There may be some poor fortune involved in that. As mentioned, he has hit the ball hard. There’s also a 28-point gap between his weighted on-base average and his expected wOBA. Still, though, Cano’s xwOBA is an underwhelming .307. That ranks in the majors’ 28th percentile, while his sprint speed (15th), expected slugging percentage (36th) and expected batting average (54th) are also mediocre or much worse. None of that’s conducive to a high BABIP or quality overall production, nor is Cano’s sudden uselessness against same-handed pitchers.

Although the lefty-hitting Cano has been much tougher on right-handed pitchers in his career, he has at least posed a threat versus southpaws. A lifetime .282/.333/.429 hitter (106 wRC+) without the platoon advantage, the 2019 version of Cano’s at a putrid .206/.275/.222 (43 wRC+) against lefties. Another look at FanGraphs’ heatmaps (pre-2019, this season) shows lefties have lived much more belt-high middle or on the outer half of the plate against Cano this year compared to prior seasons. He hasn’t found an answer yet.

Answers in general have been hard to come by for this year’s Mets, one of the season’s greatest letdowns to date. There may not be time for a team-wide turnaround in 2019, but if Cano returns to his pre-Mets form in the season’s second half, at least the club would have that to hang its hat on going into the winter. Right now, though, the acquisition of Cano looks like a massive misstep by Van Wagenen, who may have saddled his team with an albatross contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Face Decision On Tyler Thornburg

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The Red Sox announced today that they have recalled the rehabilitation assignment of righty Tyler Thornburg. While the reliever remains on the injured list for the time being, the move begins a two-day period within which the club will have to decide whether to activate him or instead remove him from the MLB roster, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter.

Thornburg has been working back from a hip impingement since late May — the latest in a line of health issues that have significantly limited him since he came to Boston in the 2016-17 offseason. He has averaged 94.1 mph on his average fastball this year in the majors, but little else has gone according to plan.

Despite the return to a velocity level that sits just over his career average, Thornburg managed only an 8.6% swinging-strike rate over his 18 2/3 innings. He did record 22 strikeouts, but also handed over ten walks and gave up four long balls. If anything, it might be surprising the ball didn’t leave the yard more often. Opposing hitters tagged Thornburg to the tune of a 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 56.6% hard-contact rate, and 20.4 degree average launch angle.

In all, Thornburg coughed up 7.71 earned per nine in the majors. And his rehab showing at Triple-A hasn’t been any more promising. In 10 2/3 frames there, he was ambushed for a whopping 15 earned runs and five long balls.

It’s possible that the Sox will give Thornburg one more shot to make good at the MLB level. Odds are they’ll decide it’s time to cut bait, even with a relief unit that’s in need of supplementation. Other organizations will surely like to see if they can help the veteran get back to what once made him a quality reliever, though it’s hard to imagine any taking on the remainder of his $1.75MM salary.

Tendering Thornburg in his final season of arb eligibility has proven a regrettable decision for the Red Sox, though it’s understandable the organization sought to recoup some value. Despite turning in questionable results when he was able to pitch in 2018, Thornburg evidently showed enough for the club to think he could rediscover his form. Indeed, over the winter, the club even cited him as a possible member of the late-inning mix.

Nationals Nearing Deal With Brad Boxberger

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The Nationals are nearing a deal with veteran reliever Brad Boxberger, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (via Twitter). It’s said to be a minor-league arrangement.

Boxberger was released recently by the Royals, who’ll remain obligated for the remainder of his $2.2MM salary. Should the righty make it up to the majors in D.C., his new organization would pay him at the league-minimum rate, providing a bit of relief to the Kansas City club.

If it feels as if the relief-needy Nats are scooping up all the veteran relievers that have been cut loose by other teams … well, that’s not far from the truth. Fernando Rodney, Jonny Venters, and Javy Guerra all opened the season with other clubs before landing with the Nationals on minors deals and then filtering up to the big leagues. (The club also nabbed outfielder Gerardo Parra under similar circumstances.) Dan Jennings and George Kontos also opened the year elsewhere before joining the D.C. org, though both are at Triple-A at present.

This approach surely wasn’t the plan going in, but it proved necessary as the Nationals relief unit turned in calamitous results over the first few months of the season. It still doesn’t look like an inspiring assemblage of pitchers, but the D.C. pen has been a passable group more recently, allowing (though not exactly driving) a fantastic run in the standings that now has the organization set up for more substantial additions over the next three weeks.

Even as the Nats’ front office begins pursuing trade targets in earnest, they’ll seemingly continue building out the depth options. Boxberger certainly fits the same general mold as the numerous other pitchers who’ve been brought on board. A long-established MLB hurler, the 31-year-old merited a guaranteed contract after a tepid but still-useful 2018 season but then failed to hit his stride in the early going this year.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the new organization can get Boxberger back on track. Trouble is, he’s working with significantly less velocity than ever before; he’s down to 90.5 mph with his average heater this year after sitting just under 93 for his career. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Boxberger is going to offspeed offerings more than ever before, serving up his change on about one in three pitches and his slider on one of every five deliveries.

The results just haven’t been there, and neither have the peripherals. Boxberger is sitting on a 5.40 ERA over 26 2/3 innings, with 9.1 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. On the positive side, his 11.3% swinging-strike rate isn’t far from his career average. And Statcast readings indicate that Boxberger has been a bit unfortunate. Opposing hitters have managed only 85.3 mph in average exit velocity. Boxberger is carrying a .311 xwOBA-against that lags the .329 wOBA that opposing hitters have produced.

Jonathan Lucroy Diagnosed With Concussion, Broken Nose

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TODAY: Lucroy was diagnosed with a concussion and fractured nose, per a team announcement. It is not known at this point approximately how much time he will miss.

The veteran backstop is slated to visit with an ENT physician after the swelling has gone down, at which time perhaps more will be known. That visit is not expected to take place until after All-Star break.

YESTERDAY: Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy was taken out of today’s game after a scary-looking collision at home plate with the Astros’ Jake Marisnick.  In the eighth inning of a tied 10-10 game, Marisnick attempted to score from third on a fly ball, and ran directly into Lucroy as the catcher had to move slightly up the line to pursue the throw.  (Marisnick was called out for an illegal collision.)  Lucroy had a bloody nose and attempted to get up after the play, though team trainers convinced him to stay down for examination.

Lucroy was taken to hospital for a CT scan, as per an Angels team announcement, and the catcher will be examined for a possible nose fracture and a possible concussion.  More will be known after Lucroy is seen by doctors, though even with the All-Star break providing four days of recovery time, it would seem likely that Lucroy will face an injured list placement.

Lucroy was 2-for-4 with a double and a triple in the game, bringing his season total to .237/.307/.364 over 264 plate appearances.  Signed to a one-year contract worth $3.35MM guaranteed over the offseason, Lucroy is in his third straight season of below-average offensive production after several years as one of baseball’s best-hitting catchers earlier in the decade.  As per Baseball Prospectus, he is also near the bottom of the league in both pitch-framing and blocking numbers in 2019.

Kevan Smith has seen more time behind the plate for Los Angeles in the wake of Lucroy’s struggles, though Smith is currently on the injured list himself recovering from a hand strain.  If both Lucroy and Smith are sidelined following the All-Star break, Dustin Garneau becomes the Halos’ top choice behind the plate, with Jose Briceno on the 40-man roster down at Triple-A.  It remains to be seen if the 45-46 Angels will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, though catching could potentially be a target area if the club does decide to add pieces to make a wild card run.

Yankees, Twins Have Each Asked About Package Deal For Stroman, Giles

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The Blue Jays have one of the best starters (Marcus Stroman) and one of the best relievers (Ken Giles) available on this summer’s trade market, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that teams have been expressing interest in acquiring both in the same package. Both the Twins and the Yankees have reached out to Toronto to express interest in a single trade to net both pitchers, per Mitchell, who cautions that the organization’s preference may be to maximize the return by orchestrating separate trades.

Minnesota’s interest in Giles (and relief help in general) has already been reported. But for all the help the Twins could use in the ’pen, the rotation is also a potential area of focus. The wheels have come off the Martin Perez project of late, as the lefty has been hammered for a 5.37 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate across his past 10 starts. And while Michael Pineda has improved in recent weeks as he distances himself from 2017 Tommy John surgery, he also figures to have his workload more carefully managed late in the season.

The Yankees are a similarly logical landing spot for Stroman. Luis Severino has yet to pitch this season due to multiple injuries, while each of James Paxton, Domingo German and CC Sabathia has spent time on the injured list. Left-hander J.A. Happ has struggled as well (5.02 ERA, 5.35 FIP in 89 12/3 innings) — unable to replicate a quartet of strong seasons from 2015-18.

Stroman recently had a bit of a health scare, exiting his last outing against the Royals due to a pectoral cramp. His final start prior to the All-Star break was skipped, but Stroman isn’t expected to miss time beyond that. If the issue is as minor as it appears to be, Stroman’s value wouldn’t be likely to take a hit. It seems quite likely that Stroman will be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1, although Atkins danced around the matter without addressing the likelihood of a deal in a recent meeting with the Toronto media (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet):

I would say this: Marcus has put himself in an incredible position throughout his career, not just over the last four months. He has been durable. He has performed at an exceptionally high rate. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last three years and because of that he is in a great position for his future with the Toronto Blue Jays and there are 29 other teams that are thinking the same way, that they would love to have someone that has been durable and has been productive. We’ll see. With another year of control for us, that’s attractive to us, that’s extremely attractive to other teams, as well. He’s put himself in a remarkable spot and earned all of that respect.

As for Giles, he may appear to be somewhat of a luxury for a deep Yankees relief corps, but it’s also true that the ’pen hasn’t been as dominant as many might have expected. Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle have thrived, and Chad Green looks reborn since a brief demotion to Triple-A in late April. Adam Ottavino has a sub-2.00 ERA but 6.1 BB/9 mark. Zack Britton’s bat-missing ability still hasn’t returned, as his 6.3 K/9 mark isn’t much higher than his 4.9 BB/9. Jonathan Holder had to be optioned to the minors after struggling to keep his ERA under 7.00. Dellin Betances, like Severino, hasn’t pitched in 2019.

Either Stroman or Giles on his own would have a fairly notable asking price, so adding both at once may very well teeter on exorbitant. The Jays seem likely to move both, though, and they’re also expected to gauge interest in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson and other veterans as their rebuilding efforts continue.

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