Mutual Interest Between Dodgers, Madison Bumgarner
Dec. 13: There’s mutual interest between Bumgarner and the Dodgers, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. The Dodgers took some time at this week’s Winter Meetings to sit down with Bumgarner’s agents.
Dec. 10: After missing on top pitching target Gerrit Cole, the Dodgers will pursue southpaw Madison Bumgarner, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Whether or not a deal gets done, this represents quite the turn of events for the long-time Giants ace.
MadBum is permanently etched into the history of the San Francisco organization after helping lead the team to three World Series titles — including one in which he more or less personally willed the club to victory. The intra-state rivalry is intense no matter the participants, but Bumgarner was more than your average player in the frequent frays between the teams.
The news is also interesting because of what it says about the Dodgers’ intentions this winter. The club isn’t exactly desperate for rotation pieces but obviously feels it’s an area to add. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is said to be looking at about a dozen key targets, as Pedro Moura of The Athletic reported today (subscription link). It seems that bolstering the starting staff is a significant priority.
Bumgarner’s days as a true front-line starter may be over, evidenced in part by the matching 3.90 ERA/3.90 FIP he posted across an impressive 207 2/3 innings in 2019, but he wouldn’t have to be an ace in Los Angeles. The club already has two front-end types in Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, after all, with Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among potential complementary pieces. However, the Dodgers are facing an especially notable departure in free agency in the form of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Now that Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler are no longer free agents, Bumgarner and Ryu look like the top two starters on the market. Bumgarner has age and durability advantages over the soon-to-be 33-year-old Ryu, which may earn the former the larger contract, though the latter has been the better pitcher on a per-inning basis of late. The Dodgers do have interest in re-signing Ryu, but it seems their focus is now on Bumgarner, who has a chance to crack the $100MM mark on his upcoming deal.
D-backs Rumors: Ray, Ozuna, Outfield, Bullpen
Executives who’ve spoken to the Diamondbacks about left-hander Robbie Ray believe that Arizona will ultimately trade him this winter, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). That move wouldn’t be the precursor to any larger-scale sell off but would rather be a means of capitalizing on a valuable asset in his final year before reaching the free-agent market. Ray, who’ll pitch all of the 2020 season at 28, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.8MM in arbitration on the heels of a 2019 season that included a 4.34 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37 percent ground-ball rate through 174 1/3 innings. Walks and home runs have long been an issue for Ray, but only four starters in baseball — Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander — have a higher overall strikeout rate than Ray’s 31.9 percent dating back to 2017.
More out of Arizona…
- While the D-backs have spoken with the agents for Marcell Ozuna, they’re not in active pursuit of the free-agent outfielder at this point, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. Arizona could circle back to Ozuna later in the offseason if he lingers on the market, Sanchez adds. Speculatively speaking, that seems like an indicator that the D-backs aren’t comfortable with Ozuna’s current price point but could be amenable to a shorter-term arrangement if he’s unable to find the lucrative multi-year deal he’s seeking. Ozuna rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, and he’d hardly be the first player to see his market stagnate due to the burden of draft compensation. There’s little indication that he’s in danger of that sort of limbo, but the D-backs are the second potential suitor in as many weeks who’ve had some cold water thrown on previously reported interest. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman last week (Twitter link) that Ozuna hasn’t come up in his talks with GM Rick Hahn, and the Sox have since acquired Nomar Mazara.
- Arizona skipper Torey Lovullo appeared on MLB Tonight this week and discussed a variety of issues, including breakouts from Ketel Marte and Christian Walker as well as the remainder of the team’s offseason (video link). While Lovullo isn’t the one calling the shots on any roster additions, he indicated that addressing the outfield is the primary focus for the club. “I think we’re trying to prioritize the outfield right now,” Lovullo said after praising the team’s pitching depth. “I think it’s fairly obvious we don’t have a lot of [outfield] depth in our organization.” Arizona non-tendered Steven Souza Jr. after a pair of injury-ruined seasons and has yet to commit to whether Marte will be a second baseman or center fielder in 2020. Marte’s versatility, as Lovullo notes, gives GM Mike Hazen and his staff plenty of flexibility when looking at how to best tackle the team’s remaining needs.
- As far as the bullpen is concerned, Lovullo said in a separate interview that while he prefers to have a designated closer/ninth-inning option in place, the Diamondbacks could “ask somebody to get four outs from time to time” next season. Archie Bradley‘s ability to pitch more than an inning at a time and the 18 saves he tallied in 2019 are a “nice starting point” when trying to determine who’ll close for Arizona in 2020, per Lovullo. But the D-backs are also still in the market for another bullpen arm, so it’s possible that some competition will be brought in to join the mix of candidates. At the moment, the D-backs aren’t making any firm proclamations as to who’ll be shutting down games for them next year.
Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract
With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.
To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.
It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.
Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.
Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.
Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…
Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Where will Josh Donaldson sign?
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Braves 45% (14,548)
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Nationals 24% (7,695)
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Dodgers 10% (3,316)
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Twins 10% (3,199)
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Rangers 7% (2,218)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,341)
Total votes: 32,317
How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How many guaranteed years will Josh Donaldson get?
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Three years 48% (11,411)
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Four years 43% (10,056)
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Two years 8% (1,795)
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One year 1% (304)
Total votes: 23,566
What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How much money will Josh Donaldson be guaranteed?
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$75-90MM 38% (8,399)
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$90-100MM 23% (5,039)
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$65-75MM 23% (5,023)
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Under $65MM 9% (2,046)
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More than $100MM 8% (1,724)
Total votes: 22,231
FA Rumors: Rendon, Rangers, Dickerson, Marlins, Shogo, Cards, Cubs
Third baseman Anthony Rendon came off the open market Wednesday when he accepted the Angels’ seven-year, $245MM guarantee. They were among a few clubs that were willing to commit that long to Rendon, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who tweets that four teams made seven-year offers to the former National. The Rangers didn’t quite go that far, however, with TR Sullivan of MLB.com reporting that they offered Rendon six years plus a club option. Josh Donaldson‘s now by far the top third baseman left in free agency, but it doesn’t appear the 3B-needy Rangers are going all-out for him, either.
Now the latest on a couple outfielders…
- Add Corey Dickerson to the list of free-agent corner outfielders on the Marlins’ radar, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Dickerson plus the previously reported Yasiel Puig and Kole Calhoun are “very much in play” for the offensively challenged Marlins, and they could sign someone by Christmas, Frisaro adds. No one from that trio had a better 2019 at the plate than the 30-year-old Dickerson, who slashed .304/.341/.565 (127 wRC+) with 12 home runs during a 78-game, 279-plate appearance campaign divided between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Thanks to Dickerson’s fairly long track record of above-average offense, MLBTR predicts he’ll earn a two-year, $15MM contract on the market.
- The Cardinals could emerge as legitimate suitors for free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports that they’ve “scouted him extensively.” The 31-year-old Akiyama, who is coming off a successful run in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, would give the Cardinals a lefty-hitting option in the outfield. That’s the type of player president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he’d like to add.
- The Cubs, St. Louis’ archrival, have also shown interest in Akiyama. They met with him this week at the Winter Meetings, though he “hasn’t emerged as the team’s top target for that leadoff/center-field position,” Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Chicago’s in the market for CF help after a horrid year from Albert Almora, but it’s unclear where they’ll turn for that.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/12/19
Let’s check in on Thursday’s minor moves…
- The Mets have signed right-hander Pedro Payano to a minor league contract, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. As a member of the Texas organization, the 25-year-old Payano struggled to prevent runs in the minors and the majors over the past couple seasons. He made a 22-inning big league debut in 2019 and logged a 5.73 ERA with almost as many walks (15) as strikeouts (17). Walks were also an issue in Triple-A ball last season for Payano, who issued 6.1 free passes per nine (against 9.58 strikeouts) en route to a 5.44 ERA across 41 1/3 frames. The Rangers designated Payano for assignment and then outrighted him in September.
- The Cardinals have reunited with left-hander Rob Kaminsky on a minors pact, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Kaminsky was the 28th overall pick of the Cardinals in the 2013 draft, but they traded him to the Indians two years later for slugger Brandon Moss. Now 25 years old, Kaminsky still hasn’t reached the majors, nor has he garnered much Triple-A experience. In his debut at the minors’ highest level last season, Kaminsky posted a 5.11 ERA with 11.31 K/9, 5.11 BB/9 and a 59.1 percent groundball rate in 24 2/3 relief innings.
Pitching Rumors: Ryu, Leclerc, Betances, Hader, Thor
Earlier this week, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he has discussed a new deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu with agent Scott Boras. For now, though, Ryu’s under the impression his longtime club isn’t particularly interested in bringing him back. “If the Dodgers wanted to re-sign me, they would have told my agent,” the left-hander said (via Yonhap News Agency). “I haven’t heard from him yet, and honestly, I don’t have much to tell you right now.” Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, another potential Dodgers target, represent the two best free-agent starters left in a market that has lost Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg over the past few days. Should the Dodgers fail to sign either of them, it’s unclear where they’ll turn if they’re determined to land another high-end starter.
- Rangers right-handed reliever Jose Leclerc is generating “a lot of interest” from other clubs, Levi Weaver of The Athletic tweets. That said, it’s not known whether the Rangers are open to trading their most valuable reliever – whom they signed to a team-friendly extension last offseason. The hard-throwing Leclerc, 25, is controllable for five more seasons (including two club options) and is only due a guaranteed $12.25MM over the rest of his deal. That’s one of the reasons he’d likely bring back a quality haul in a trade, which could create a conundrum for general manager Jon Daniels.
- It appears increasingly likely that reliever Dellin Betances‘ time with the Yankees is up. There’s no “active dialogue” between the Yankees and the free-agent righty’s camp, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The 31-year-old Betances was excellent as a Yankee until injuries derailed him in 2019, when he faced a total of two batters. It seems the Yankees have turned their attention to another established reliever, Brewers lefty Josh Hader, whom they’re reportedly pursuing on the trade market. But Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that, writing that the two teams “did not seem to have substantial traction” in talks as the Winter Meetings wrapped up.
- The Mets just added two starters in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, giving them at least viable rotation candidates. Those somewhat modest signings won’t affect righty Noah Syndergaard‘s place on the team’s roster, though. GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to insist the Mets are not going to trade Syndergaard, Sherman relays. In fact, with Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Porcello and Wacha as the Mets’ top six starters, Van Wagenen’s of the belief that they have the deepest rotation in baseball.
Multiple Clubs Interested In Kyle Seager
Although he has earned a reputation as a trade-happy general manager, the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto hasn’t swung many significant deals yet this offseason. He could add to his list of trades soon, however, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) reports that multiple clubs are showing interest in Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager.
Seager has an undesirable clause in his contract that could scuttle a deal, as his $15MM club option for 2022 will turn into a player option if he’s traded. However, Seager may be open to amending that, per Rosenthal, who suggests that he’d rather play for a winner than a rebuilding team (Seattle) and could give up his option rights if an acquiring team’s willing to hand him more money upfront. Alternatively, the Mariners could just include cash in the deal and/or attach a good prospect in an effort to offset the player option, Rosenthal notes.
As of now, Seager’s due a guaranteed $37MM over the next two seasons. That would’ve looked like a wholly unappealing sum 12 months ago, at which point the typically productive Seager was coming off the worst year of his career. But Seager put himself back on the map with a 2.9-fWAR 2019 in which he batted .239/.321/.468 (110 wRC+) and swatted 23 home runs in 443 plate appearances. Now, with teams such as the Nationals, Braves, Twins and Rangers among those seeking third basemen, they could turn to Seager if they don’t sign Josh Donaldson or find a way to pry Kris Bryant from the Cubs.
Teams Have Inquired About Yu Darvish
After a bounce-back showing in the second half of the 2019 season, right-hander Yu Darvish could emerge as a winter trade chip for the Cubs. Chicago has “received inquiries” regarding Darvish, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. It doesn’t appear a trade is in the works right now, but as Sherman notes, that could change when the best remaining free-agent starters (Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, for example) come off the board.
A year ago at this time, the idea of a Darvish trade would’ve been unthinkable. At that point, the former Ranger and Dodger was coming off a brutal, injury-ravaged first season with the Cubs, who inked him to a six-year, $126MM guarantee entering 2018. Darvish totaled a mere eight starts and 40 innings that year, when he put up career worsts in ERA (4.95), FIP (4.86) and walks per nine (4.73).
Last season began in similarly rough fashion for Darvish, owner of an ERA upward of 5.00 as late as July 3, but the light bulb went back on thereafter. The 33-year-old ended the summer on a tear, as he posted 124 strikeouts against a paltry seven walks in 88 1/3 innings from July onward. All said, Darvish concluded the campaign with 178 2/3 frames of 3.98 ERA/4.16 FIP ball, 11.54 K/9, 2.82 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent groundball rate (up from 37.6 the previous year). He also managed a career-best swinging-strike percentage (13.4) and tied a personal high in average fastball velocity (94.2 mph). If there’s one major red flag, it’s that Darvish gave up more home runs than ever (1.66 per nine with a 22.8 percent homer-to-fly ball rate), though that was a common theme throughout the league last season.
Despite his late-2019 rebound, Darvish elected against a return to free agency, instead deciding not to opt out of the remaining four years and $81MM on his contract. It was a predictable call, especially considering Darvish has made it clear he has enjoyed his time in Chicago. Still, in a league where Red Sox lefty David Price – despite coming off an injury-plagued season and having three years and $96MM left on his contract – has drawn trade interest, it’s not that surprising teams have eyed Darvish in the wake of his personal renaissance.
Whether the Cubs would deal an integral rotation member like Darvish is unknown, and the fact that his contract includes no-trade rights — complete protection for now, then a dozen teams in 2020 — could complicate matters. However, there has been word that the Cubs would like to cut payroll. As Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates, they’re currently set to enter 2020 with a $214MM luxury-tax payroll. In that scenario, the Cubs would be $6MM over the threshold, and that’s without having made any clear improvements yet this offseason.
Furthermore, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is no doubt frustrated after a season that saw the Cubs miss the playoffs. The possibility of a shakeup has led to trade speculation surrounding other Cubs notables such as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. So, any number of drastic roster-altering scenarios might be on the table (perhaps including a Darvish deal), but Epstein did say this week that the Cubs currently have “the makings of a very good team,” one that has “a chance to win a division.” On paper, getting rid of Darvish could decrease their odds of doing that.
Dodgers Interested In Dellin Betances
The Dodgers lost out to the Yankees in the Gerrit Cole derby on Tuesday, when the ace chose New York’s offer over Los Angeles’ proposal. Now, the Dodgers are among the teams with their sights set on one of the Yankees’ longtime contributors, reliever Dellin Betances. They have “real interest” in the four-time All-Star right-hander, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the Dodgers were after Betances, but that was before they agreed to sign fellow righty reliever Blake Treinen to a one-year, $10MM guarantee Wednesday.
If you’re a Dodgers fan, the excitement of a Betances pursuit obviously falls well shy of a Cole signing. But that’s not a knock on the soon-to-be 32-year-old Betances, one of the most successful late-game hurlers in recent memory. Betances came into his own in 2014 and has since posted a tremendous 2.21 ERA/2.25 FIP with 14.66 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 48.1 percent groundball rate. That type of production would be welcome anywhere, especially on an LA team whose bullpen had its share of issues in 2019.
During a half-decade run from 2014-18, no major league reliever amassed more innings than Betances’ 373 1/3. While durability has been one of the hallmarks of the hard-throwing Betances’ career, the 2019 season was a different story. Injuries to his shoulder and lat largely deprived Betances of the chance to put up an impressive platform campaign and further boost his stock heading to the market. Betances didn’t pitch until Sept. 15, and his season came to an abrupt end that day after he faced just two batters (both of whom he retired). He suffered a freak partial tear to his left Achilles while hopping off the mound in Toronto.
In the wake of his latest injury, it’s anyone’s guess whether Betances will return to form next season. However, with MLBTR projecting a one-year, $7MM payday, Betances would be an intriguing buy-low pickup for the Dodgers, who are already set to take a chance on a Treinen bounce-back effort.
Rangers “Likely Out” On Josh Donaldson
6:17pm: Similarly to Weaver, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, tweets that Texas is “not actively engaged” on Donaldson and isn’t inclined to push a potential bid to four years.
It’s not clear what type of offer the Texas organization is willing to put forth, but Grant writes in a full column that Donaldson already has at least one three-year offer in hand from another club. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, meanwhile, tweets that “multiple” clubs are willing to push to a fourth year to land Donaldson. That aligns with previous reports on Donaldson’s earning power, although any and all talk about him reaching four years has been nebulous to this point. And given the fairly limited number of teams reported to be serious players for Donaldson’s services, a four-year guarantee perhaps shouldn’t be a full-on expectation.
Other clubs that have been linked to Donaldson include the Dodgers, Nationals, Twins and Braves, although bringing Donaldson back into the fold would utterly shatter Atlanta’s current record payroll. The Nationals and Dodgers both just missed out on Rendon, while the Twins still have plenty of payroll space but have also been in active pursuit of rotation upgrades.
11:45am: President of baseball operations Jon Daniels addressed the topic of third base today, as Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star Telegram reports (Twitter links). Daniels acknowledged that “it sucks” to have missed on Rendon.
Looking forward, Daniels offered a possible acknowledgement that the organization isn’t simply checking down to Donaldson — though that’s only one possible interpretation. “I wouldn’t assume that we necessarily view the options exactly as they are portrayed publicly,” he said.
11:03am: The Rangers are believed to be exiting the hunt for Josh Donaldson, according to Levi Weaver of The Athletic (via Twitter). Indication is that the club isn’t willing to keep pace with the bidding and is “likely out” on Donaldson.
It seems there’s ongoing action in the third base market even as the Winter Meetings draw to a close. Anthony Rendon signed last night, spurning the Rangers and other pursuers to go to the Angels. Now, the club’s top alternative seems destined to move along.
Donaldson, who just turned 34, has drawn many of the same suitors as did Rendon, along with a few additional interested teams. He has long been expected to receive a big annual salary over at least three guaranteed seasons, with the major question being whether or not he can secure a fourth.