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MLB Mailbag: Soto, Simpson, Phillies, Brewers, Herrera

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This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.

Ralph asks:

What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?

My take is that it's much ado about nothing.

The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it?  Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances.  He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.

Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball.  One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring.  I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).

I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines.  Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.

The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks.  To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24.  And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.

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MLBTR Podcast: The Disappointing Orioles, Dalton Rushing, And The Phillies’ Bullpen

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who are some hitters who could be available at the deadline? (36:05)
  • Who are some pitchers who could be available at the deadline? (46:40)
  • When will the Pirates fire general manager Ben Cherington? (53:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation

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Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.

If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat,  Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.

Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.

The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).

They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.

And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.

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NBC Makes Offer For Broadcasts Currently Carried By ESPN

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In February, MLB and ESPN each triggered an opt-out clause in their broadcasting agreement for the 2026-28 seasons. That means that as things stand, this is ESPN’s final year carrying MLB games. The network carries an exclusive regular season game every Sunday night, the Home Run Derby, and the Wild Card round of the postseason.

Joe Flint and Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal report that NBCUniversal, a subsidiary of Comcast, made MLB an offer this month for the package of games from which ESPN walked away. The length of the offer isn’t clear, nor are specifics on the rights fees. However, The Wall Street Journal reports that NBC’s offer was for “much less” than what ESPN currently pays. In February, Evan Drellich and Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reported that ESPN would have owed $550MM annually for the 2026-28 seasons had it not opted out.

Obviously, ESPN determined that price was above market value when it opted out. The network said at the time that it was “open to exploring new ways to serve MLB fans across our platforms beyond 2025.” Diamond and Isabella Simonetti of The Wall Street Journal reported in March that ESPN had indicated it was willing to pay a maximum of $200MM per season during renegotiations leading up to the opt-out date. MLB balked, and the sides agreed to terminate the contract after this season. NBC’s offer is evidently for well below $550MM per year. It’s unclear if it tops the $200MM annual sum which ESPN had floated.

ESPN has carried Sunday Night Baseball since 1990 and the Home Run Derby since ’93. It has broadcast the Wild Card round since that was introduced with the expanded playoff in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement. It seems NBC is interested in acquiring all three of those, though Flint and Diamond write that NBC is not pursuing international/radio rights or access to highlight clips that ESPN currently receives (partially justifying the lower bid).

NBC has an agreement with the National Football League for its Sunday Night Football slate. Last July, it reached an 11-year contract with the National Basketball Association for a package of 100 regular season games and the NBA All-Star Game. (That goes into effect during the upcoming basketball season.) According to The Wall Street Journal report, the network would stream some of its MLB games on its Peacock service when those games conflict with its other live sports. Those interested in the topic are encouraged to read the Wall Street Journal’s report in full.

Jean Segura Retires

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Longtime MLB infielder Jean Segura has retired, according to a social media post from his representatives at CAA. Segura last appeared in the majors in 2023 and spent time in Triple-A with the Orioles last season.

Segura had an accomplished 12-year big league run. The Dominican Republic native signed as an amateur with the Angels in 2007. He was one of the sport’s top prospects when he debuted with the Halos in July 2012. Segura played one game, then was traded to Milwaukee less than a week later as the centerpiece of the prospect package for Zack Greinke.

The Brewers immediately installed Segura as their starting shortstop. He held that role for the next three and a half seasons. His first full season was his best in Milwaukee, as he hit .294 to earn an All-Star selection. His production plummeted between 2014-15. The Brewers moved on before the ’16 season, moving him to the Diamondbacks in a deal for starter Chase Anderson and minor league second baseman Isan Díaz.

Segura only spent one season in the desert, but it was the best year of his career. He led the National League with 203 hits while posting a .319/.368/.499 line over 694 plate appearances. He set personal highs in all three slash stats. He tallied a career-high 41 doubles and hit 20 home runs for the only time. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each credited him with over six wins above replacement.

Fantastic as Segura’s season was, his greatest impact on the Arizona organization came the following winter. They packaged him alongside Mitch Haniger to Seattle for Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker. Marte is on track to spend over a decade with the Snakes and has become one of the best players in franchise history.

The Mariners signed Segura to a five-year, $70MM extension midway through his first season in the Pacific Northwest. He would only spend one year of that contract in Seattle, though he remained an above-average regular during his time there. He hit .300 or better in both years and slashed .302/.345/.421 in nearly 1200 plate appearances overall. He was on the move again during the 2018-19 offseason. The M’s dealt him to Philadelphia in a deal that netted J.P. Crawford.

The move worked out well for both clubs. Crawford has developed into Seattle’s long-term answer at shortstop. Segura was a solid regular over four seasons with the Phils — first at shortstop, then for three seasons at second base. He hit .281/.337/.418 in 427 games in a Philadelphia uniform. It was his second-longest run with one team, trailing his early-career stint in Milwaukee. It also afforded him the only playoff experience of his career. Segura was a regular throughout the Phils’ pennant run in 2022, though he hit .214 in 17 postseason games.

Philadelphia bought out Segura’s $17MM club option for the 2023 season. That sent him to the free agent market for the first time. He signed a two-year, $17MM contract with the Marlins to move to third base. The deal did not pan out, as he hit .219/.277/.279 across 85 games for the Fish. They traded him to the Guardians in a salary swap for Josh Bell at the ’23 deadline. Cleveland immediately released him, and Segura’s final game as a Marlin turned out to be his last in the big leagues.

While his last season didn’t go well, Segura can look back on a very good major league career. He finishes with a .281/.327/.401 batting line in more than 1400 games. He topped 1500 hits, connected on 110 home runs, and stole 211 bases. Segura drove in 513 runs and scored 737 times. He hit .300 on three occasions, made a pair of All-Star Games, and received down-ballot MVP votes for his year in Arizona. Baseball Reference calculates his lifetime earnings close to $106MM. He was a part of five notable trades, two of which remain consequential today. MLBTR congratulates Segura on his run and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of John Geliebter, Imagn Images.

Giants Sign Andrew Knizner To Minor League Deal

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The Giants signed catcher Andrew Knizner to a minor league contract. The deal was first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. He has already made his organizational debut, collecting hits in each of his first three at-bats with Triple-A Sacramento.

Knizner is picking up where he’d left off as a member of the Nationals organization. The 30-year-old had raked at a .382/.516/.500 clip with more walks than strikeouts over 23 games for their top affiliate. Washington nevertheless granted him his release over the weekend. Knizner was set to trigger an opt-out. The Nats preferred to stick with their current catching tandem of Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams rather than override the opt-out by calling him up.

While Knizner obviously isn’t going to keep up this pace, he’s a productive minor league hitter. He carried a .287/.379/.435 batting line over parts of four Triple-A seasons into play tonight. He has had a far tougher time against MLB pitching. Knizner is a career .210/.279/.317 hitter in almost 900 plate appearances at the big league level. He spent parts of five seasons backing up Yadier Molina and Willson Contreras, respectively, in St. Louis.

Knizner moved to Texas on a $1.825MM free agent deal heading into 2024. He spent most of the year as Jonah Heim’s backup, but he didn’t perform especially well. Knizner hit .167/.183/.211 over 35 games. Texas acquired Carson Kelly at the deadline and designated Knizner for assignment not long after. He landed with the Diamondbacks via waiver claim. His time in Arizona consisted of 22 Triple-A games. The Snakes outrighted him off their 40-man roster without getting him into a big league contest.

Patrick Bailey is entrenched as the starting catcher in San Francisco. Sam Huff hasn’t provided much in sporadic playing time as the backup. He’s hitting .200 with one homer and 22 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances. Knizner joins Max Stassi and Logan Porter as non-roster depth at Triple-A. Knizner has been the most productive of that trio in the minors this year, potentially positioning him as the top challenger if the Giants decide to move on from the out-of-options Huff at any point.

Giants To Place Justin Verlander On Injured List

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The Giants are placing Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list with a pectoral nerve issue, manager Bob Melvin told the teams’s beat after today’s loss to Kansas City (relayed by Shayna Rubin of The San Francisco Chronicle). They haven’t announced a corresponding move.

Melvin indicated that the Giants are confident it’ll only cost Verlander two turns through the rotation (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). They can backdate the assignment to May 19, so he’d first be eligible to return on June 3. The veteran righty’s tenure in San Francisco has gotten out to a pedestrian beginning. He’s averaging just over five innings per start and has tallied a 4.33 earned run average in 10 appearances. He’s striking out only 18.2% of batters faced, though his 11.4% swinging strike rate is up from the 9-10% range of the previous two seasons.

It’s a moderate improvement over Verlander’s final season in Houston. He posted a 5.48 ERA with an 18.7% strikeout percentage through 90 1/3 innings. Injuries have become increasingly prevalent for the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer. Verlander began the 2024 season on the IL with shoulder inflammation. He was knocked back out in mid-June with a neck problem that was initially expected to be minor. It ended up costing him two months.

Verlander was rocked over seven starts after returning from the neck injury. He allowed more than eight earned runs per nine innings while opponents raked at a .322/.369/.483 clip. The Astros felt they couldn’t carry him on the playoff roster given the form he carried into October. It was an unfortunate end to an illustrious run in Houston. The three-time Cy Young winner signed with the Giants for $15MM as a free agent.

The Giants had operated with the same rotation for the season’s first six weeks. Verlander slotted alongside Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp and Jordan Hicks behind Logan Webb. They made an (arguably overdue) swap of Hicks for Hayden Birdsong over the weekend, pushing Hicks to the bullpen after he posted a 6.55 ERA through nine starts.

Verlander would have been lined up to take the ball on Saturday. The Giants have an off day tomorrow, so they could theoretically delay their decision on a fifth starter by a couple days if they wanted to move Ray up from Sunday’s start. They probably won’t move Hicks back to the rotation for what they expect to be a minimal absence from Verlander.

Kyle Harrison is in the big league bullpen after working out of the Triple-A rotation for much of the year. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has a dominant 52:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over nine starts in the minors. He’s not on the 40-man roster, though, so the Giants may not want to bring him up yet. Carson Seymour, Trevor McDonald and Mason Black are all in the Triple-A rotation and occupy 40-man roster spots. McDonald started yesterday, while Seymour is lined up to take the ball today, which probably rules them out for a promotion. Whisenhunt pitched on Monday; Black’s most recent start came last Friday.

Tayler Scott Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Tayler Scott, who was designated for assignment by the Astros a week ago, has cleared waivers but has rejected an outright assignment and elected free agency. He has that right as a player with a previous career outright. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle was among those to relay the news.

Scott, 33 in June, had the best season of his career in 2024. Prior to that, he was a journeyman, spending years bouncing around to various affiliated clubs, indy ball teams and even spent a season in Japan. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros going into 2024 and made the Opening Day roster. He then posted a 2.23 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings on the year. His 12.4% walk rate wasn’t great but he managed to punch out 25.2% of opponents.

There was probably a bit of luck in there. His .230 batting average on balls in play and 84.9% strand rate were both on the fortunate side. Still, his 4.13 FIP and 4.04 SIERA suggested he could be a serviceable big league arm even if the baseball gods stopped treating him so nicely.

He wasn’t able to carry that forward into 2025. The Astros kept him around but he posted a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. His fortune flipped, as his .313 BABIP and 65.2% strand rate this year have been on the unlucky side. He also hasn’t done himself any favors with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 15.4% walk rate.

That performance understandably nudged him off the Astros’ roster. He is out of options, so they had little choice but to designate him for assignment. The fact that he cleared waivers suggests that no other club wanted to give him a roster spot either.

Based on his solid performance last year, he should be able to get a minor league deal somewhere. That could be a reunion with the Astros but he’ll also have the chance to explore opportunities with the 29 other clubs.

Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images

Angels, Sammy Peralta Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with left-handed reliever Sammy Peralta, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’d been pitching with El Aguila de Veracruz in the Mexican League and will head to Triple-A Salt Lake for the time being. He’s represented by Premier Talent Sports & Entertainment.

Peralta, 27, has spent the majority of his career in the White Sox system. He reached the majors in both 2023 and 2024, logging a combined 35 innings of 4.37 ERA ball with a 17.9% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 41.7% ground-ball rate. The soft-tossing southpaw has averaged just 89.3 mph on his four-seamer in the majors and complements that pitch with a slider sitting just north of 78 mph and a changeup that averages just under 82 mph.

Peralta opened the 2025 season with a strong showing in an intensely hitter-friendly setting in Mexico — interestingly doing so as a starting pitcher. The 6’2″ lefty has spent nearly his entire professional career as a reliever but started four games with Veracruz and notched a 2.53 ERA with a 22-to-2 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings (26.5 K%, 2.4 BB%). All 25 of Peralta’s major league appearances have been relief outings, and only nine of his 150 minor league games have been starts. He’d never pitched more than four innings in a single professional appearance prior to signing in Mexico.

It’s not yet clear which role Peralta will hold with the Halos. I’m told he stretched out in Mexico not necessarily due to a preference to move to a starting role but just to expand his versatility. Angels starters rank 19th in the majors with a 3.99 ERA, though both Jack Kochanowicz (4.71 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (5.32 ERA) have struggled in nine starts apiece. The Angels’ bullpen is dead last in the majors with a 6.82 ERA, and they recently lost Ben Joyce to season-ending shoulder surgery. Peralta posted a 4.44 ERA in 50 2/3 relief innings at the Triple-A level in 2025 and carries a career 4.80 earned run average, 21.1% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 125 2/3 innings at the top minor league level.

Nathaniel Lowe Drawing Trade Interest

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Nationals first baseman Nathaniel Lowe is drawing some early trade interest. Sean McAdam of MassLive relayed on the Fenway Rundown podcast (link to full pod and to Lowe clip) that at least one club has contacted the Nats to gauge Lowe’s availability. McAdam adds that he wasn’t able to confirm which club put in the call, though he suggests it was very likely the Red Sox, on account of their obvious need at the position.

Lowe, 29, is a logical trade candidate. The Nats have been rebuilding for many years and are currently 22-27. They’re not totally buried in the standings but there are three strong clubs above them in the National League East. Lowe is slated for free agency after 2026 and is unlikely to be a big part of the next competitive window.

If he does end up traded this summer, it would be his second time being flipped in the span of less than a year. The Rangers sent him to the Nationals in December in exchange for left-hander Robert Garcia. Lowe’s four years in Texas had gone quite well. From 2021 to 2024, Lowe took 2,576 plate appearances as a Ranger. He hit 78 home runs, drew walks at a strong 11.3% clip and kept his strikeout rate at an average-ish 23.3% pace. He produced a combined line of .274/.359/.432 in that time, leading to a 123 wRC+. He helped the Rangers win their first championship in 2023.

He’s been out to a slower start this year. His 9.3% walk rate and 27.8% strikeout rate are both worse than during his time in Texas. His .223/.298/.397 line on the season leads to a 94 wRC+. It’s possible there’s some luck at play. His .275 batting average on balls in play is below this year’s .290 league average and also the .339 rate he carried during his time as a Ranger. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate are actually up relative to his career norms, according to Statcast.

Lowe is making a notable salary, though not an egregious one. It’s $10.3MM here in 2025 and can be retained via arbitration in 2026. Though his 2025 isn’t out to a roaring start, his contract status and past track record could make him a sought-after trade candidate this summer.

That’s unlikely to happen soon, however. As relayed by McAdam, most teams are reluctant to depart with a key player this early in the season as it would send a message to their fans that they are giving up. At this part of the calendar, teams are asking for essentially twice as much as they would for the same player at the deadline. Along those lines, the Nats are planning to keep Lowe around for now, both in the name of keeping their contending hopes alive for now while also having him serve as a veteran leader for a roster mostly composed of younger players.

Perhaps that will change as the deadline approaches but clubs looking for first base help will have to look elsewhere for the time being. The first base position has been a talking point in Boston for weeks now. Triston Casas suffered a ruptured left patellar tendon on May 2nd and required season-ending surgery. In the immediate aftermath of that development, it was reported that the Sox were exploring the trade market.

It’s possible that Lowe is one of the external options they considered but they haven’t been able to get anything done. Given McAdam’s framing of the current prices, that’s not especially surprising. That has left the Sox to try internal options for now.

Rafael Devers was approached about the possibility of taking up the spot but is apparently uninteresting in doing so. Romy González got a few starts at first after the Casas injury but he himself then landed on the 10-day injured list due to a left quad contusion. Abraham Toro and Nick Sogard have been getting the starts there over the past two weeks. Toro is hitting .192/.192/.346 this year while Sogard has a line of .222/.276/.259, so the Sox will naturally keep looking for better options.

The Sox have been getting Kristian Campbell prepared to play first but that’s a work in progress as he’s never played there before. If the Sox feel comfortable with him sliding over, it’s possible that prospect Marcelo Mayer could take over second base for Campbell. If that arrangement works out somewhat well, perhaps the Sox would be less interested in Lowe come July, though it’s also possible that other injuries lead to more positional shuffling in the months to come.

Photo courtesy of Brett Davis, Imagn Images

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