NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Rockies, Cardinals
Giants GM Bobby Evans tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that Mike Morse was the one to reach out to the team about a possible minor league contract, and not vice versa. As Schulman notes, Morse spent much of the 2016 season in apparent retirement after being cut loose by the Pirates, but it seems he’s not quite ready to call it quits just yet. Morse is somewhat of a long shot to make the roster in Spring Training, and Schulman writes that Evans did not receive an indication of whether Morse would be willing to go to Triple-A if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. As it stands, he’ll compete with Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson for an outfield role. The Giants make plenty of sense as a landing spot for a corner outfielder right now, but Evans suggested to Schulman that he doesn’t plan to sign a big bat for the outfield. San Francisco will monitor what is a buyers’ market for corner outfielders in the months leading up to Spring Training, though, Schulman adds.
A few more notes from around the National League…
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that he doesn’t envision beginning extension talks with any of the team’s young rotation arms until Spring Training begins. “We’re not thinking about it now, it really hasn’t been our focus,” said Alderson. “It’s probably not something that is going to happen before we head to spring training.” Among Mets starters, Matt Harvey is in his second year of arbitration and is controlled through 2018, while Jacob deGrom is in his first trip through arbitration (as a Super Two player) and is controlled through 2020. However, both pitchers underwent season-ending surgery in 2016 — thoracic outlet syndrome for Harvey and an ulnar nerve repair for deGrom — so the Mets may want to see how they rebound from a medical perspective before engaging in talks. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz both stand out as logical extension candidates as well, as neither has reached arbitration yet, which could give a bit of extra incentive to talk long-term. Both pitchers are controlled through the 2021 season.
- MLB.com’s Thomas Harding runs down a number of roster questions for the Rockies in his later Inbox column, noting within that he still expects GM Jeff Bridich to add another reliever either via trade or free agency. Harding also writes that Bridich is considering the possibility of adding a veteran catcher prior to Spring Training as well. The Rox have been asking for potential front-of-the-rotation pitchers in trade talks for Charlie Blackmon, Harding adds, which explains to some degree why the Rockies don’t appear to have had much in the way of advanced trade talks regarding Blackmon. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9MM salary for Blackmon next year. He’s controlled through 2018 via arbitration and is fresh off a career year in which he slashed .324/.381/.552 with 29 homers and 17 steals.
- While some Cardinals fans were frustrated that the team didn’t make a big play for Edwin Encarnacion, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch dispels the notion that St. Louis’ lack of a push for Encarnacion was due to financial reasons. Goold reports that the Cardinals’ upcoming increase in television revenue — the team agreed to a $1.1 billion television contract in July 2015 — will give the team about $20MM more in rights fees in 2018 than it will earn in 2017. The column provides an excellent breakdown of the Cardinals’ payroll, noting that just under $46MM is coming off the books from 2016 while just over $47MM has been added to the 2017 ledger. The Cardinals certainly have the capacity to increase spending, Goold writes, but in the case of Encarnacion they simply weren’t all that interested in him as a player (at least not at his price tag). Per Goold, St. Louis’ interest in Encarnacion was only “mild.” (It doesn’t seem that the Cards are abandoning the idea of adding some right-handed pop to the lineup, though, as they were rumored to be “very much” in the mix for Twins second Brian Dozier earlier this afternoon.)
Trade Rumors: Smyly, Blackmon, Blue Jays, Pitching, Lowrie
Some trade chatter from around baseball…
- The Mariners talked with the Rays about a trade for Drew Smyly at the Winter Meetings, the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish reports. The M’s were known to be talking to the Rays about their pitching this winter, with Smyly mentioned as a better potential fit since the Mariners probably don’t have the prospect depth to land Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi. Smyly posted solid but only decent numbers over 175 1/3 innings for Tampa last season, and with a projected $6.9MM arbitration figure, he has been often mentioned as a possible trade candidate for the payroll-conscious Rays.
- The Blue Jays reportedly turned down the Rockies‘ ask of Marcus Stroman as part of a deal for Charlie Blackmon earlier this winter, and that seems to have ended the Jays’ chance of landing the outfielder, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes. “Talks quickly died” between the two clubs once Stroman wasn’t made available, and Chisholm doesn’t think Toronto has enough other trade chips to get Colorado’s interest.
- There is always a premium on trading for pitching, though evaluators tell ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) that the prospect haul the White Sox received from the Red Sox for Chris Sale has driven the price of available arms through the roof. “It’s crazy. It’s like everyone is trying to replicate their version of the [Sale] trade,” one executive said. As Olney notes, teams with pitching to spare like the Rays, Diamondbacks or the White Sox again (with Jose Quintana) lose nothing by making high demands now, since they could always shop their starters at the July trade deadline or next winter.
- The Athletics are thought to have “at least gauged trade interest for” Jed Lowrie, CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich writes. A deal could be difficult due to the foot surgery that prematurely ended Lowrie’s 2016 season last August, not to mention Lowrie’s long injury history in general and his middling numbers in recent seasons. Salary could also be a consideration, as Lowrie is guaranteed $6.5MM in 2017, and he has a $6MM club option (with a $1MM buyout) on his services for 2018. Dealing Lowrie would create even more uncertainty for the A’s at second base, a position Billy Beane already admits is “a concern” in the short term. Joey Wendle and Chad Pinder could be options at second if Lowrie is dealt or not healthy, while top shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto could also potentially switch to the keystone down the road.
Managers And Front Office Bosses On Expiring Contracts
There are quite a few notable managers and top front office executives (general managers or heads of baseball operations who have different titles) entering their last guaranteed year under contract in 2017, creating even more pressure than usual to have a good season. Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for providing many of these contract details.
As always with this list, it should be noted that contract length is far from an absolute measure of job security. Teams with seemingly stable management could be one disastrous season away from a shakeup in the dugout or front office, while some of the managers or executives listed here could have “stay as long as you want” handshake deals in place. Some teams also don’t publicize contract details for front office executives, so some of the names on the list could have already quietly signed extensions, or there could be other execs entering their last year under contract.
Here are some of the names who could be facing a hotter seat than usual in 2017…
Blue Jays: John Gibbons reworked his contract with the club last March, eliminating the “rolling option” provision of his previous deal. There was some question over the last year as to whether Gibbons’ time in Toronto was running out with Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins running the Jays’ front office instead of Alex Anthopoulos, rumors that continued into the season as the Blue Jays got off to a slow start. As the Jays recovered to capture a wild card and eventually reach the ALCS, however, Gibbons secured his job for next year and drew praise from Shapiro. The whispers probably won’t entirely go away until Gibbons signs a multi-year extension, though given Toronto’s success last year, the announcement of a new deal for the manager during Spring Training wouldn’t be a surprise.
Braves: John Hart’s three-year contract as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations is up after the 2017 season. After shepherding the club through a rebuilding process, it would be somewhat unusual to see Hart leave just as the Braves are entering their new ballpark and are beginning to turn toward being competitive again. Then again, Hart could also return to a senior advisor role and let GM John Coppolella fully take the reigns of the baseball ops department. Manager Brian Snitker’s contract consists of one guaranteed year and a club option year for 2018, though since Snitker beat out a distinguished field to become the Braves’ full-time skipper, he likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Mets: Terry Collins has already given some indication that 2017 could be his last season regardless of whether or not the Mets would want him back as manager, as the 67-year-old had a particularly tough time dealing with the grind of the 162-game schedule this past year. There were a number of rumors about Collins’ job security over the summer, though the Mets’ unlikely September push to a wild card spot ensured that he would stay in the dugout for at least one more year. GM Sandy Alderson is also entering his final year under contract, and past reports from 2014 suggested that he didn’t want to remain in the job beyond four more seasons. An extension of his general manager contract doesn’t appear to be in the cards, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Alderson moved into a new upper management role with the Mets and let someone else step into the day-to-day GM duties.
Nationals: Dusty Baker delivered an NL East title in his first year as Washington’s manager, though since the Nats are clearly in win-now mode, another first-round postseason exit could potentially cost Baker his job. That might seem like undue pressure for a veteran skipper like Baker, though it wouldn’t be unusual for a Nationals franchise that a rather checkered history with hiring and firing managers.
Phillies: Pete Mackanin already received an extra guaranteed year from the Phils last March, as well as a club option for 2018. Barring a major step backwards in the development of the team’s young players, Mackanin’s job should be safe.
Pirates: After three straight postseason appearances, the Bucs dipped back under the .500 mark last year, and another losing season could lead to some questions about Neal Huntington’s tenure as general manager. It’s probably more likely that Huntington would get more time to see if he could engineer another Pirates turn-around, however, and ownership does have a club option on Huntington’s services for 2018. Manager Clint Hurdle is also entering his last guaranteed year with a club option for 2018, and as of last November, he hadn’t had any talks with the Pirates about a new deal. Like Huntington, however, there isn’t any sign that Pittsburgh’s rough 2016 year has jeopardized Hurdle’s long-term future with the team. There is some sense, however, that bench coach Tom Prince is being groomed as a future manager should Hurdle eventually leave the job or be fired.
Reds: Just prior to the end of the season, the Reds announced that Bryan Price had signed a new contract that contained a guaranteed year in 2017 and a club option for 2018. It’s worth noting that this is less security than Price’s initial three-year deal with the team, though since the Reds are in a rebuilding phase, GM Dick Williams could be giving himself flexibility if a change in the dugout is needed as Cincinnati eventually shifts back towards trying to contend.
Tigers: This could be the most uncertain situation on the list, as Brad Ausmus has himself expressed some annoyance about his lack of job security. Detroit came close to firing Ausmus after the 2015 season, and the team simply exercised its club option on his services after this past year without adding any other guaranteed or option years beyond 2017. The Tigers have two winning seasons and an overall winning record in Ausmus’ three years at the helm, though they’ve missed out on the postseason in each of the last two years. The team’s change in direction in regards to their spending practices doesn’t mean the Tigers’ desire to win is any less great, so even a slow start next season could potentially end Ausmus’ tenure.
Twins: Even with the hiring of a new front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, Twins owner Jim Pohlad requested that Paul Molitor remain the team’s manager. It doesn’t look like Molitor is going anywhere, despite how the Twins badly struggled in his second year running the clubhouse.
Yankees: GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi are both entering the last year of their deals, and Cashman has already said that, as far as he knows, Yankees ownership will stick to its usual tactic of waiting until the season ends to discuss new contracts. While the last few years have been disappointments by New York’s high standards, Cashman and Girardi have overcome injuries and disappointing performances from both high-priced players and prospects to continue the Yankees’ string of winning seasons. Cashman also reloaded the Yankees’ farm system with elite prospects in a series of midseason trades, putting the team in a better position to contend in the future. Girardi at least considered other managerial jobs prior to signing his most recent contract with the team, though right now he looks like a good bet to continue in the job unless he wants a new challenge or if the Yankees have a rough 2017 season.
Free Agent Notes: Fister, Nationals, Royals
The latest open-market buzz about some players and teams…
- The Marlins had some interest in Doug Fister earlier this winter, though MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes that the club “doesn’t appear to be high on” the veteran righty’s services. It looks as if Miami is only looking to add another starter on a low-cost depth deal, unless the price tag on someone like Jason Hammel (another reported Marlins target) drops.
- Also from Frisaro, he hasn’t heard Trevor Plouffe being mentioned as a possible Marlins addition, though he could fit as both a right-handed hitting complement to Justin Bour at first base and as a third base backup for Martin Prado. Frisaro thinks the Fish could turn more attention on position players adds as we get close to Spring Training, as much of the club’s winter focus has been on pitching.
- A right-handed power bat makes sense for the Nationals, though as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post notes, signing such a player (even from a pretty well-stocked market) is easier said than done. While signing a big bat in the event that first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and/or left fielder Jayson Werth get another injury makes sense, Janes notes that many of the notable hitters on the market naturally see themselves as everyday players and are likely unwilling to join a Washington club that has limited opportunity for regular at-bats.
- The Royals “haven’t closed the door” on reunions with either Greg Holland or Luke Hochevar, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. Over half of the teams in baseball have shown at least some interest in Holland in his return from Tommy John surgery, so Kansas City could face a bidding war in re-signing its former closer. Hochevar underwent surgery in early August to help correct thoracic outlet syndrome, and the procedure’s estimated six-month rehab period puts Hochevar on track for early February; the Royals or other teams could wait until then to consider a signing in order to properly evaluate his health. There were already indications that the Royals could look to bring Hochevar back at a lower price after declining their end of the righty’s $7MM mutual option for 2017.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/26/16
Here are some recent minor league moves from around the game, as chronicled by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited. The newest transactions are at the top of the post…
- The Giants inked catcher Josmil Pinto to a minor league deal. Pinto appeared in six games with Milwaukee last season, his first MLB exposure since 2014. The backstop has 84 games and 286 plate appearances to his record with the Brewers and Twins, as well as a .274/.349/.442 slash line over 3242 minor league PA.
- The Mariners signed outfielder Kyle Waldrop to a minors contract. The longtime Reds farmhand became a free agent after a 2016 season that saw him outrighted off Cincinnati’s 40-man roster. Waldrop (a different player than the former Twins right-hander of the same name, for the record) appeared in 15 games for the Reds last season, mostly as a pinch-hitter or late-game sub. He has a .274/.320/.429 slash over 2698 PA in the Reds’ minor league system.
- The White Sox signed righty Jorge Rondon to a minor league pact earlier this month. Rondon has a 13.26 ERA over 19 career innings pitched in the majors, making brief appearances in each of the last three seasons with the Cardinals, Rockies, Orioles and Pirates. A pro since 2006, Rondon has a 4.24 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 1.54 K/BB rate over 647 1/3 career frames in the minors, appearing as a reliever in 346 over his 387 career games.
- The Red Sox re-signed catcher Dan Butler on a minor league deal. Originally signed as an undrafted free agent in 2009, Butler has spent his entire pro career in Boston’s organization, save for a season with the Nationals in 2015. Butler has a .256/.348/.405 slash line over 2441 career PA in the minors, and he appeared in seven games in the bigs in 2014.
- The Tigers signed righties Jake Brigham and outfielder Jim Adduci to minor league deals. As Eddy notes, Detroit has been active in signing players from international leagues as minor league depth, including these two former big leaguers. Brigham spent 2016 with Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles after nine pro seasons in North America, receiving his first taste of the majors in the form of 16 2/3 innings with the Braves in 2015. Adduci, 31, played 11 seasons in the minors and parts of two seasons (148 PA with the Rangers in 2013-14) in the majors before spending the last two years with the Korean Baseball Organization’s Lotte Giants.
Candidates For The Reds’ First MLB Deal Of The Offseason
The Reds have been busy on the waiver wire, but quiet elsewhere. Beyond picking which young players upon which to make dice rolls, GM Dick Williams has largely held his hand thus far. That’s not terribly surprising, for a variety of reasons.
The club’s most obvious potential trade chips come with no-trade protection (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips) or play positions that aren’t in huge demand (Phillips, Zack Cozart). There was never a strong prerogative to deal from among the Reds’ other controllable assets, such as righty Anthony DeSclafani and center fielder Billy Hamilton. At the same time, after spending about two years compiling prospects, the organization has plenty of young players who are ready to compete for major league opportunities in 2017, so there aren’t a lot of needs.
Still, it would be surprising if the team makes it through the winter without striking at least one major-league contract. Cincinnati nearly did so a winter ago, giving MLB deals only to Blake Wood and (in mid-March) Alfredo Simon. While the Yankees actually did manage to avoid handing out a 40-man spot to a free agent in 2015-16, it’s a rarity.
And it isn’t as if the Reds are fully loaded for 2017, particularly if they hope to have an outside chance at turning into a contender. In particular, the bullpen appears ripe for an addition. That’s especially true of the open closer role; while Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, or even Tony Cingrani would represent internal options, giving any of those youngsters the opportunity would also mean boosting their expected arbitration earnings. Cincinnati might as well make the investment to add another arm, while utilizing them in set-up roles. Alternatively, or additionally, the Reds could look to add some veteran arms — either swingman types or pure relievers — to provide depth.
So, what are the options should Cincinnati decide to open up one of its prized 40-man roster spots? Let’s run down a few of the remaining bullpen arms that could make sense…
- Joe Blanton: After a pair of resurgent seasons split between the Royals, Pirates and Dodgers, it’s very possible that Blanton will be too expensive for Cincinnati’s tastes. He’s posted a 2.65 ERA across his past 165 MLB innings with good control and better than a strikeout per inning. He could find a high-leverage spot on a contending club, though Cincinnati could entice him by offering a ninth-inning role.
- Santiago Casilla: If Casilla wants to continue closing, his age and his September meltdown in 2016 might limit his opportunities. However, Cincinnati could offer him that type of opportunity with an eye toward flipping him in July if he performs well. His poor finish aside, Casilla has a 2.42 ERA in 394 2/3 regular-season innings dating back to 2010 and has whiffed better than a batter per inning in each of the past two seasons.
- Neftali Feliz: The former AL Rookie of the Year had a resurgent season in the Pirates’ bullpen this past season and could command a high-leverage role with Cincinnati (or another club) if his medicals check out. Feliz ended the season on the shelf but there’s been no word of any arm issues lingering into the offseason. He posted a 3.52 ERA with 61 strikeouts against 20 unintentional walks in 53 2/3 innings this past season.
- David Hernandez: Hernandez crashed and burned when given a short leash as Philadelphia’s closer early last season, but he rebounded to pitch quite well over the remainder of the season. The 31-year-old posted a 3.53 ERA and punched out 69 hitters against 28 walks in his final 66 1/3 innings of the 2016 campaign. As a presumably low-cost veteran arm with closing experience, he’d be a nice add to a Cincinnati bullpen that could develop into a trade chip down the line with a good full season.
- Greg Holland: Perhaps the highest-upside arm left on the market, Holland could potentially be lured to the Reds with a guarantee of pitching in the ninth inning from day one. Contending clubs may be wary to make such a commitment, but a rebuilding team like the Reds has little to lose. And while Holland may prefer to sign with a contender, he could also sign in Cincinnati with the guarantee of save opportunities and with the understanding that he’d be likely to be flipped to a contender come July if he rediscovered the form he showed from 2011-15 prior to Tommy John surgery (2.15 ERA, 12.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 301 innings).
- Yusmeiro Petit: The Reds don’t have anyone locked into a multi-inning role, but Petit could be had on an affordable one-year deal and fill that role while also serving as a safety net for an inexperienced rotation. The Nationals didn’t use him much down the stretch in 2016, and he struggled when he did take the hill, but he’s worked to a very solid 3.83 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 between the rotation and bullpen across the past five seasons (307 2/3 innings).
- Sergio Romo: The former Giants closer lost his ninth-inning role to the aforementioned Casilla late in his San Francisco tenure, but he’s been rock solid in terms of bottom-line results virtually every year in the Majors since debuting in 2008. The 33-year-old has only posted an ERA north of 3.00 in two MLB seasons and has a lifetime 2.58 ERA with 10.2 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in the Majors. He doesn’t throw hard, but Romo would bring loads of late-inning experience to a Reds team that is lacking in that area.
- Joe Smith: Like so many others on this list, Smith comes with some closing experience but has also worked in a setup capacity for a number of years. Set to turn 33 in March, Smith is a ground-ball specialist with a history of limiting the long ball — a trait that’d be appealing to the Reds, who play in a homer-happy home park. A 2.64 ERA over his past 389 MLB innings only adds to the appeal.
- Drew Storen: It’s been a stark downward spiral for Storen since the Nationals acquired Jonathan Papelbon in July 2015. Storen was demoted to a setup role, performed poorly, and found himself flipped to the Blue Jays, where his results weren’t any better. A midseason trade to the Mariners in 2016 didn’t improve his results, either. Rough stretch aside, the former No. 10 overall pick has a career 3.31 ERA and posted a 2.91 ERA with solid control and nearly a strikeout per inning from 2011-15. On a short-term deal, the upside for the Reds would be tantalizing.
- Shawn Tolleson: In 2015, Tolleson emerged as a surprise closer for the Rangers, saving 35 games and logging a 2.99 ERA in 72 1/3 innings — his second straight year with 70-plus innings and a sub-3.00 ERA. Tolleson imploded in 2016 and saw his strikeout rate plummet while his home-run rate skyrocketed. There are a number of reasons for interested suitors to have skepticism, but the Reds could offer a low-base one-year deal with the promise of a high-leverage role. If Tolleson returns to form, he’d be a summer trade chip at the very least. However, he’s also controllable through 2018, so the Reds could simply enjoy his services for a full year and reassess next winter if he rebounds in 2017.
Transaction Retrospection: The Daniel Murphy Signing
It has been one year and one day since the Nationals inked Daniel Murphy to a three-year, $37.5MM contract. Murphy wasn’t exactly a hotly pursued target for D.C., which had previously pushed hard for free-agent Ben Zobrist, chatted with Howie Kendrick about a deal, and nearly consummated a swap with the Reds to acquire Brandon Phillips.
Having explored those other avenues, but found none availing, the Nats struck a Christmas Eve pact that seemed at the time to represent a solid price tag (even with the sacrifice of a draft pick) for a quality player. But expectations were relatively restrained. While Murphy’s torrid late-2015 work had certainly raised his profile, it perhaps hadn’t fundamentally changed his perception around the league. His own former team, the Mets, were content pocketing a draft selection and dealing for a replacement in Neil Walker, and obviously there wasn’t sufficient interest for him to garner even a fourth guaranteed season entering his age-31 campaign.
Needless to say, the arrangement worked out much better than anyone thought possible. In retrospect, Murphy’s unbelievable postseason performance — including a ridiculous 1.462 OPS and seven home runs over 39 plate appearances in the NLDS and NLCS — was a harbinger of things to come.
In 2016, Murphy went from a solid hitter on a hot streak to one of the game’s most productive batsmen. Across 582 plate appearances, he slashed .347/.390/.595 and struck 25 home runs to go with a league-leading 47 doubles. While he still graded poorly in the field, Murphy rated well as a baserunner (though he doesn’t try to steal nearly as often as he used to) and managed to rack up 5.5 fWAR while landing second in the N.L. M.V.P. voting. And though he wasn’t quite as spectacular in his five postseason games for the Nats as he had been for the Mets, Murphy still recorded seven hits, five walks, and six RBI in his 22 postseason plate appearances in 2016.
The remaining two years left on Murphy’s deal now appear to represent quite a valuable asset for Washington. Though the backloaded structure means that there’s still $29.5MM to go, there’s little question that Murphy could command a much greater sum were he back on the open market — which might well have happened had he taken the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mets. That’s all gravy for the Nats, who have already received equivalent value for the entire commitment out of Murphy’s first year.
Things worked out well enough for New York, too. Walker turned in a productive year, though he did ultimately require back surgery that put a premature end to his 2016 season. And unlike Murphy, Walker stuck around; he remains a member of the organization after accepting the QO earlier this offseason. It certainly wouldn’t rate as a huge surprise if he ends up out-producing the man he replaced in 2017.
There’s no direct takeaway from the Murphy signing, but there are a few broader points that it supports. For one thing, notions of upside and floor may well be overstated; Murphy was signed for his steady consistency at the plate, but ended up showing that his apparent late-2015 hot streak was really a reflection of a change in hitting capacity. Whether it’s sustainable, of course, is anyone’s guess; as Murphy’s big season also shows, baseball remains full of surprises even in an age of advanced statistics. And for the free agents who remain unsigned this time around, along with the teams that will ultimately sign them? Well, there’s probably still some money left to be found, and some diamonds still lying in the rough.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Top 10 Remaining Free Agents
MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth broke down the top 10 free agents remaining on the market last week, which he based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes put together entering the offseason. Edwin Encarnacion and Ivan Nova, the first- and third-ranked unsigned players left as of Dec. 17, have since come off the board. That means a couple new faces will slide into this week’s list, while updates have come in on some of the others in recent days. Here’s the latest:
8. Mark Trumbo, 1B/DH/OF: The Orioles rescinded their four-year offer to Trumbo shortly after our rankings went up a week ago, but general manager Dan Duquette then stated that there’s still a “window open” to re-sign him. Baltimore could face competition from Colorado, whose GM, Jeff Bridich, acknowledged Tuesday that the team is “keeping track” of Trumbo. The plurality of MLBTR readers expect Trumbo to end up staying with the Orioles, though, after he smashed a major league-best 47 home runs as a member of the club in 2016.
12. Jose Bautista, OF/DH: This offseason has not gone according to plan for the 36-year-old Bautista, who seems to stand little chance of landing even a medium-term deal. The idea of joining the Rays, who wouldn’t have to give up their protected first-round pick to sign Bautista, has continued to come up, but it’s clearly a long shot. Although Bautista’s a Tampa Bay-area resident, he’s still out of the Rays’ price range. The longtime Blue Jay is open to accepting a one-year contract, but the value would have to exceed that of the $17.2MM qualifying offer. He rejected the QO from Toronto prior to free agency, of course, and the Jays haven’t made him an offer worth more since.
15. Jason Hammel, SP: As is the case with Bautista, the winter hasn’t unfolded to Hammel’s liking. Thus, the 34-year-old right-hander changed agencies Tuesday.
16. Matt Wieters, C: The four-time All-Star won’t be returning to Baltimore for a ninth season in 2017, but nearby Washington and one of its NL East rivals, Atlanta, look like real possibilities. While the Nationals traded for a potential starting backstop in ex-Padre Derek Norris earlier this month, they could pick up Wieters and flip Norris elsewhere. Plus, their hierarchy is close with Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras. Signing with the Braves, meanwhile, would enable Wieters to head back to his native south (he’s from Charleston, S.C.) and to the state in which the former Georgia Tech star played college baseball.
20. Michael Saunders, OF: There’s not much happening with Saunders (publicly, anyway), though Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported Sunday that the Orioles are open to inking him to a one-year contract.
21. Mike Napoli, 1B/DH: Napoli’s done in Cleveland, which upgraded over him with Encarnacion, but the Rangers are hot on his trail. The 35-year-old has already been a Ranger twice – from 2011-12 and for 35 games in 2015. The Orioles, who are coming up a lot in this update, have joined the mix, too.
23. Greg Holland, RP: Nothing new to report on Holland, who’s the most proven closer remaining in free agency. The problem is that the former late-game ace with the Royals missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2015.
24. Travis Wood, SP/RP: Wood was a starter from 2010-14 and could conceivably sign somewhere as a rotation option, though he spent the previous two seasons as mostly a reliever with the Cubs. The Blue Jays, who need left-handed bullpen help in the wake of Brett Cecil‘s departure, are now in on the 29-year-old Wood.
25. Neftali Feliz, RP: Aside from Winter Meetings connections to the Nationals and Marlins, Feliz’s market has been slow to develop this offseason. Closer-needy Washington continues to look like a fit after losing out on Kenley Jansen, while Miami’s bullpen now appears set thanks to the additions of Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Feliz, a longtime Ranger, has 99 saves to his name and is coming off a 29-hold season with the Pirates. All told, the 28-year-old posted a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings, making Feliz an effective buy-low player for a Bucs team that secured him with a modest guarantee ($3.9MM) last January.
30. Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: Tampa Bay is seemingly the only team with Moss on its radar. Given the quantity of similar players on the market, Moss might have to continue to wait for a deal to come along. The 33-year-old impressed with 28 homers and a .259 ISO in 464 plate appearances with St. Louis last season, but his overall line (.225/.300/.484) lagged on account of a .191/.248/.392 showing after the All-Star break.
Poll: Dubious December Decisions
With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.
Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:
Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).
If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.
Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.
Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Which is the most questionable December transaction?
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Nationals trade a haul for Adam Eaton 50% (7,309)
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Rockies sign Ian Desmond 33% (4,867)
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Yankees bring back Aroldis Chapman 13% (1,916)
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Other 4% (522)
Total votes: 14,614
Orioles Rumors: Trumbo, Carter, Alvarez, Saunders, Wieters
The latest from Baltimore, courtesy of Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com:
- The Orioles’ reported interest in free agent first baseman Chris Carter is at least somewhat “exaggerated,” according to Kubatko, who does note that adding him or re-signing fellow designated hitter type Pedro Alvarez is possible. The team’s focus is still on re-signing Mark Trumbo, even though it pulled its offer to him off the table last week, and will only turn to Carter, Alvarez or another slugger if he goes elsewhere. Unlike Trumbo, who figures to land a multiyear pact, either Carter or Alvarez would likely have to take a one-year deal to end up with the Orioles. Alvarez did that last offseason with Baltimore, which inked him to a pact featuring a guaranteed $5.75MM in March. The lefty-swinging 29-year-old went on to slash .249/.322/.504 with 22 homers in 376 plate appearances. If Alvarez returns to the Orioles for a second go-around, it seems he’d share the DH spot with the right-handed Trey Mancini.
- Given their corner outfield need, the O’s are still interested in free agent Michael Saunders – to whom they were linked at the Winter Meetings – but they’d prefer him on a one-year contract, Kubatko writes. Health has been an issue in the past with Saunders, who missed a combined 237 games from 2014-15, but he appeared in a career-high 140 contests last season as a Blue Jay and batted an above-average .253/.338/.478 with 24 homers in 558 PAs.
- As expected, the Orioles’ signing of catcher Welington Castillo essentially closed the door on Matt Wieters‘ lengthy tenure with the organization, per Kubatko. The O’s were neither willing to meet agent Scott Boras’ demands nor wait around until the new year, when Wieters is likely to sign, to settle their situation behind the plate. They’ll now go with Castillo and Caleb Joseph in the short term as they await the arrival of big-hitting prospect Chance Sisco.