- As the Phillies look to augment their club with pitching and outfield depth this winter, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that they’ve received interest in a package of shortstop prospect Bryan Rincon and catching prospect Eduardo Tait from at least three clubs, though Philadelphia has rebuffed the advances of rival clubs on the duo to this point. Rincon, in February, was a 14th-round pick by the Phillies in the 2022 draft and sports strong defense along with a switch-hitting bat and a 14.8% walk rate for his career in the minor leagues against a strikeout rate of just 17.8%. Tait, meanwhile, signed with the Phillies out of Panama last year and slashed an impressive .333/.400/.517 during his first taste of affiliated ball in the Dominican Summer League.
Phillies Rumors
The Phillies’ Next Steps
It’s been a quiet offseason in Philadelphia to this point — well, as quiet as is possible for a team that doled out a $172MM contract. The Phils struck early and decisively to keep longtime rotation anchor Aaron Nola on a new seven-year deal worth that sum, but it’s been largely silent since that time. Philadelphia made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, and the team is also said to have interest in extending Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency next winter.
Other than that, there’s been borderline silence out of Philadelphia. Even in terms of minor league free agency, the Phils have added hard-throwing righty Jose Ruiz and… that’s it. There’s obviously a good bit of offseason left to unfold, but for a team coming off consecutive NLCS berths and with clear World Series aspirations, it’s been a bit surprising. Their only signings beyond Nola and Ruiz have been low-cost deals to avoid arbitration with backup outfielder/first baseman Jake Cave ($1MM), swingman Dylan Covey ($850K) and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs ($850K).
That said, it’s clear that the Phillies aren’t yet finished with their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much last week, telling Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his team is “not just satisfied” and is still working to improve. Where could the Phillies search for upgrades in an unusually quiet offseason by their standards? Let’s take a look:
Bullpen upgrades
The Phils have a need in the ’pen after seeing Craig Kimbrel depart and piecing together much of the relief corps via minor league free agency a year ago. Dombrowski’s low-cost pickup of Jeff Hoffman proved to be a masterstroke, but bullpen-mate Andrew Bellatti’s dismal 2023 campaign illustrates the perils of simply assuming that a breakout performance from a minor league free-agent pickup in the ’pen will carry over to the following season. Hoffman was genuinely dominant for the Phils, but his track record is limited.
Rob Thomson’s bullpen figures to be anchored by Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Gregory Soto. Bellatti is still on hand, and the aforementioned Covey can provide long relief and serve as a spot starter. Dombrowski spoke highly of rookie Orion Kerkering when chatting with Lauber and even noted that he’s turned down trade offers for the promising 22-year-old.
The Inquirer’s Alex Coffey reported in December that making some kind of bullpen addition is in the Phillies’ plans. Jayson Stark of The Athletic suggested not long before that report that the Phils aren’t likely to pursue a pure closer, so don’t expect a Josh Hader splash at Citizens Bank Park. If the Phils are comfortable making a long-term move, they could look to righties Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. But Dombrowski has erred toward short-term additions in recent offseasons, signing Matt Strahm (two years, $15MM), Kimbrel (one year, $10MM) and Corey Knebel (one year, $10MM). If he follows a similar path, names like Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek and old friends Hector Neris and Michael Fulmer could be in play.
Right-handed outfielder
Stark wrote back in November that the Phillies were planning to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder to their corner outfield mix. That new addition could serve as a platoonmate for Brandon Marsh in left field or perhaps handle left field on a full-time basis if Marsh were to slide into a timeshare with Johan Rojas in center field. A handful of notable names have come off the board, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Hunter Renfroe and most recently Teoscar Hernandez. However, the Phils never seemed likely to play at the Gurriel/Hernandez level anyhow, given the presence of Marsh, Rojas, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber.
There’s no shortage of free agents who could fill a part-time corner role. Candidates for that type of job include Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and switch-hitters Aaron Hicks, and Robbie Grossman. If the Phils are content to push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon to open the season, they could look to Adam Duvall or versatile Whit Merrifield to hold down a more regular role in left.
The bench, in general
A more speculative need here, but the Philadelphia bench doesn’t look like that of a repeat NLCS club with World Series aspirations. Stubbs hit .204/.274/.283 in 125 plate appearances last year — the polar opposite of a .264/.350/.462 slash he posted in a near-identical sample the preceding season. Cave hit just .212/.272/.348. Both have already been signed to the cheap 2024 deals I referenced earlier, but Stubbs has an option remaining and Cave would surely clear waivers and could be stashed in Triple-A as depth, should the Phils make a more substantial addition.
Pache and Edmundo Sosa represent a pair of strong defensive options for the outfield and infield, respectively, but neither has much of a bat (Pache’s solid 2023 showing in a tiny sample of 95 plate appearances notwithstanding). There’s some versatility here, with Pache being a plus defender at any outfield slot and Sosa capable at any of shortstop, second base and third base. But this is a weak group in terms of offensive potential, and a long-term injury to a regular would further expose that reality.
One possible scenario that could alter this mix would be to sign a full-time third baseman and push Alec Bohm into a reserve role. While the 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick popped 20 home runs and finished third on the club with 97 runs plated, there’s some reason to be skeptical of his ability to continue that level of run production. Bohm has excellent bat-to-ball skills and roughly average power, but the overwhelming bulk of his damage was done against lefties. He torched southpaws at a .303/.335/.594 clip (142 wRC+) but was effectively a singles hitter against righties (.263/.324/.377, 92 wRC+). His career splits paint a similar picture: .314/.362/.530 against lefties but .262/.311/.358 against righties.
If Bohm were a plus or even average defender, that offensive profile would carry him just fine. However, Bohm has been dinged for -46 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average at third base in his career. He might be a better fit at first base, but that belongs to Bryce Harper now.
Bohm clearly has a big league-caliber bat, but it’s easy to argue that he’s best deployed in a more limited role, given the shaky glove and punchless output against right-handed opposition. He’s only in his first year of arbitration and projected to earn $4.4MM (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), so he’s plenty affordable in that role. But as he inches through arbitration, the price could begin to outpace his value if he racks up counting stats in an everyday role and doesn’t make substantive gains against right-handed pitching.
The Bohm scenario, to reiterate, is speculative in nature and not something to which Dombrowski has publicly alluded. But the third base market has names like Justin Turner, Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela in free agency, while there are several teams (Reds, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles) who have some infield surpluses that could present trade possibilities. There’s no glaring hole in the lineup here — as one might expect from a back-to-back LCS participant — but a more specialized role for Bohm could improve the roster in multiple ways. Alternatively, the Phils could add a third baseman and see if Bohm could fill that right-handed-hitting void in left field. The defense might not be pretty, but that’s already true as it is at third base.
Rotation depth
One current hangup, at least as pertains to Dombrowski’s quest to add more rotation depth, is that free agents look at the Phillies’ roster and don’t see an opportunity for a guaranteed rotation spot with Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez all locked in. Dombrowski noted to Lauber that he’s hopeful of eventually adding some veteran arms who’ll be willing to start the year in Triple-A and serve as rotation depth, but most pitchers of that ilk are still hoping for concrete spots with other teams who have more acute rotation needs.
The Phillies could very arguably benefit from signing an established veteran to a short-term (possibly one-year) pact and plugging him into the fifth spot in the rotation. However, Sanchez is out of minor league options, so he can’t simply be sent down to the minors. And, after he impressed with a 3.44 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and pristine 4% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings last year, he’s certainly earned a look. Dombrowski said as much earlier in the winter, noting in an appearance on MLB Network that if the club succeeded in re-signing Nola, the rotation would be “set” — largely because of a desire to take a full-season look at Sanchez after that impressive 2023 showing. That didn’t stop the Phillies from making an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was viewed as something of an exception, given his age and upside.
The free-agent market should feature several recognizable names who’ll end up signing non-guaranteed deals. Predicting exactly who’ll be squeezed out of a big league deal requires some degree of guesswork, but rebound candidates like Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Keller and Yonny Chirinos come to mind as plausible possibilities.
Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery
While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.
That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.
It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.
The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.
The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.
Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.
Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.
Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.
Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills
Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports. Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).
Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….
- Mets: $100,781,932
- Padres: $39.7MM
- Yankees: $32.4MM
- Dodgers: $19.4MM
- Phillies: $6.98MM
- Blue Jays: $5.5MM
- Braves: $3.2MM
- Rangers: $1.8MM
As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster. A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year. Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.
A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season. A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM. These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons. This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).
The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending. Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts. The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.
This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention. Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.
As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold. Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere. For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.
Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee. The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records. The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.
The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league. The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.
Phillies Prioritizing Extension With Zack Wheeler
The Phillies’ “No. 1 priority” for the remainder of the offseason “is signing ace Zack Wheeler to a contract extension,” MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Wheeler is set to be a free agent next winter, as he is entering the final season of his five-year, $118MM contract.
Four seasons in, that deal has been an unqualified success from the Phillies’ perspective. Wheeler has the most fWAR (19.3) of any starter in baseball since the start of the 2020 season, as he has posted a 3.06 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 47% grounder rate over 629 1/3 regular-season innings in a Philadelphia uniform. The right-hander has been even more dominant during the postseason, delivering a 2.42 ERA over 63 1/3 playoff innings to help carry the Phillies to an NL pennant and an NLCS appearance over the last two seasons.
There aren’t many red flags on Wheeler as he enters his age-34 season, even if his 3.61 ERA in 2023 was the highest of his Philadelphia tenure. He generated fewer grounders and allowed a bit more hard contact than usual, and Wheeler relied more heavily on his signature four-seamer than ever before — he reduced his cutter usage since the secondary pitch wasn’t as effective as it had been in 2021-22.
Health-wise, Wheeler underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2015 and battled some other arm problems during his time with the Mets in 2016-17. He has been quite durable ever since, and a month-long bout of forearm tendinitis late in the 2022 season ended up being relatively minor, as Wheeler returned in strong form for the Phillies’ playoff run.
With his track record of success and durability, Wheeler figures to be one of the most sought-after members of the 2024-25 free agent class, even if he’ll be turning 35 in May 2025. As such, Wheeler and his representatives at Wasserman might seek out a bit of a premium from the Phillies in order to keep the righty from testing the market. A four-year extension isn’t an unreasonable ask given Wheeler’s relatively clean recent health history, and topping the $23.6MM average annual value on his current contract seems like a given.
The Phillies have obviously shown a willingness to spend big in acquiring and retaining star players over the last few seasons, even if this hasn’t manifested itself in many actual extensions. Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are the only Phillies to sign extensions during Dave Dombrowski’s three-plus years as president of baseball operations, and those relatively modest deals (two years and $18.55MM in new money for Alvarado, two years and $7.25MM for Dominguez) aren’t in the stratosphere of what it’ll take to lock up Wheeler. While the Phillies kept Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto in the fold on new contracts, the Phils let both players reach the open market first before eventually re-signing the duo.
It was just over a month ago that Nola was re-signed to a seven-year, $172MM deal, cementing the right-hander as a staple of the Phils’ rotation through the rest of the decade. Nola joins Bryce Harper and Trea Turner as Philadelphia players who are already signed through at least the 2030 season, plus Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber are on the books through 2025, and Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos are signed through 2026. An extension for Wheeler would put yet another hefty contract on the team’s ledger, though spending big on star talent has long been Dombrowski’s M.O. The Phillies have exceeded the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons and are projected to be well over at least the first tax threshold in 2024, so owner John Middleton isn’t showing any signs of cutting back given how close the Phillies have come to a championship.
That said, it seems like a lot of the heavy lifting is over on the Phillies’ 2023-24 offseason work, now that Nola has been re-signed and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is officially off the market. Signing Yamamoto would have arguably been a luxury for the team, yet the team viewed him as a special player worthy of a strong push, and Dombrowski told Zolecki and other reporters that “I think we were extremely competitive” in at least getting Yamamoto’s attention.
“We were aggressive. When we made our presentation [to Yamamoto’s representatives], I think our guys did a tremendous job,” Dombrowski said. “I think they presented the organization well….I don’t think it had anything to do with anything else, he just preferred to be a Dodger. Ultimately he was just not a person attuned to coming to Philly.”
In terms of further pursuits, Dombrowski said other additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, since so much of Philadelphia’s 26-man is already set. This will take the form of bullpen help and depth/swingman type of pitchers for the rotation, and Dombrowski downplayed the idea of adding another outfielder. With Harper now the regular first baseman and Schwarber the regular DH, the Phillies will have Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, Jake Cave, Simon Muzziotti, and utilitymen Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens all in the mix for outfield playing time.
Phillies Have Made Offer To Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Phillies have put forth a formal contract offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. While terms are unreported, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote earlier in the week the club was planning to be aggressive in its pursuit of the NPB star.
It’s notable, if unsurprising, that the Phillies have put an official proposal on the table. Nevertheless, both Gelb and Coffey suggest it’s unlikely the Phillies’ offer will be the highest that Yamamoto receives. Gelb adds that team officials are uncertain how much interest the pitcher has in Philadelphia.
That all aligns with earlier reporting casting the Phils as a relative long shot among the seven known finalists: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox being the others. Yamamoto didn’t stop in Philadelphia as part of his North American tour, instead meeting with club personnel in Los Angeles.
Of course, the starting point for most free agents is financial. If the Phillies’ offer does wind up below the top bids, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sign elsewhere. Philadelphia doesn’t necessarily need a starting pitcher. A front five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is strong. Prospect Mick Abel could pitch his way into the midseason mix. Even if there’s no question the group would be improved by adding NPB’s best pitcher, other clubs could feel more urgency to top the market.
The Dodgers are reportedly weighing an offer that’d land somewhere between $250MM and $300MM. SNY’s Andy Martino said last night that the Mets were putting together “a very serious offer” of their own. Most or all of the seven clubs with which the 25-year-old has met recently are likely to submit an offer this week.
Yamamoto has until the evening of January 4 to sign. He isn’t expected to wait that long. There has been speculation he could decide by the end of the week, although that’s not guaranteed. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweeted this evening that while one executive involved in the bidding expected Yamamoto to sign before Christmas, another suggested he could deliberate until just before the end of the year.
Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market
There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.
Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.
The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.
The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.
That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.
MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).
The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger
For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.
MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.
Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)
Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?
Likeliest Fits
- Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
- Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
- Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.
Longer Shots
- Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
- Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
- Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
Payroll Questions
- Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
- Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.
Phillies Meeting With Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Phillies officials are meeting with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto this afternoon, tweets John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Philadelphia joins the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox among the teams that has met or is scheduled to chat with the Japanese star.
Yamamoto’s camp has made the rounds this week. The 25-year-old has gotten attention from the majority of large-market franchises, particularly those on the coasts. Last week, Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested that seven teams had emerged as strong suitors for the 5’10” pitcher. With seven clubs known to have meetings scheduled with Yamamoto, it’s possible the field is essentially finalized. In a full column, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that there’s no indication the Cubs or Cardinals are planning to meet with Yamamoto.
Of the group that seems to remain in the mix, Philadelphia might have the longest odds. The Phils already made one major rotation splash this winter, retaining Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM pact. A starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is already strong. The Phils could certainly bump Sánchez back into relief to make way for Yamamoto, who is regarded as a likely top-of-the-rotation arm in the majors. Yet it’s possible teams like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees will feel greater pressure to dish out a megadeal for rotation help.
Yamamoto is coming off a 1.21 ERA in 164 innings, arguably the best performance of an exceptional career in Japan. He has been named NPB’s best pitcher in each of the past three seasons. MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $225MM guarantee at the start of the offseason. In recent weeks, there’s been increasing speculation that a deal could approach or exceed $300MM. The signing team would owe a posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes on top of the guarantee to Yamamoto.
Roster Resource projects the Phillies payroll around $237MM for the upcoming season. That’s a little shy of the $243MM range that they carried to start this year. The Phils have roughly $252MM in luxury tax calculations, which puts them into the first tier of penalization and not far off the $257MM second threshold.
Bryce Harper Interested In Extension With Phillies
After some speculation over the last few weeks that Bryce Harper was interested in extending his deal with the Phillies, agent Scott Boras confirmed the matter when speaking with reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) at the Winter Meetings.
“Bryce has let me know that he wants to work out an extension so that he knows that he’s going to be there for the remainder of his career….Apart from my advice, he goes, ’I just want to go and make sure that I can recruit players to Philadelphia. I want the fans in Philadelphia to know that I’m going to be there for the duration and that I’m committed.’ I think he’s been an important voice for them to attract major free agents and other players,” Boras said.
Harper is still not even halfway through the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed with the Phillies as a free agent during the 2018-19 offseason. At the time of the signing, Harper’s contract was the most expensive in baseball history, and it still ranks seventh all-time in terms of total dollars. In terms of average annual value, however, Harper’s deal doesn’t crack the top 40 all time, as he is making a relatively (in a very broad sense) modest AAV of just under $25.4MM per season. In terms of actual dollars, Harper is still owed $196MM through the 2031 season.
The deal was a straight 13-year pact without any opt-outs or club option years, which was by design. At the time of the signing, Harper stressed that he wanted long-term security for the rest of his career, so he could focus on baseball without having to worry about any future changes of scenery or upcoming trips to free agency. This dovetailed with the Phillies’ desire to add premium talent while also keeping costs (again) relatively in check in terms of the luxury tax. With Harper’s money spread out over a longer term, that $25.4MM AAV puts less of a hit on Philadelphia’s annual luxury tax bill.
Since the Phillies have exceeded the tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, the AAV benefits of Harper’s contract are perhaps even more important to the Phillies now than it was at the time of Harper’s signing in February 2019. On paper, this gives the team little reason to consider extending a player who is already locked up through his age-38 season. Even if the Phils are open to indeed retaining Harper into his 40’s, it makes sense for the club to wait at least a few more years to monitor any signs of decline in Harper’s play.
In addition, Harper is also coming off two seasons hampered by injuries and defensive limitations, as a UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery limited Harper to DH-only duty and then some time at first base over the 2022-23 seasons. Though Harper is now apparently healthy enough to resume right field duties, Philadelphia will instead use him as the everyday first baseman in at least 2024, allowing the Phillies to both address a first base need and to get more at-bats in the outfield for such players as Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Cristian Pache.
Even with these injuries clouding the picture, Harper is still unquestionably a force at the plate. He has hit .284/.395/.536 over 2497 plate appearances in a Phillies uniform, as well as a whopping 1.137 OPS over 126 PA in the postseason. Harper was the NL MVP in 2021, and he helped lead the Phillies end their playoff drought with a World Series appearance in 2022, and then a trip to Game Seven of the NLCS in 2023.
If Harper was a free agent now entering his age-31 season, would he land more than eight years and $196MM? The answer certainly would appear to be yes, as Harper’s mighty bat might very well outweigh any concerns over his long-term health or defensive future. Speculatively, if security is still Harper’s focus more than pure money, the Phillies could float an extension that adds a couple of years to Harper’s contract at a lesser AAV, or perhaps a restructured deal entirely that lengthens the contract but lowers the Phils’ annual tax hit even further.