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Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall Diagnosed With Fractured Wrist, Will Not Require Surgery

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Red Sox center fielder Adam Duvall has been diagnosed with a distal radius fracture in his left wrist, manager Alex Cora announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Ian Browne of MLB.com). He’ll be placed on the 10-day injured list for now, with the expectation that he’ll miss several weeks of action. The team does not yet have an exact timetable for his expected recovery, though Cora told reporters that Duvall will not require surgery (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Infielder Bobby Dalbec is up from Triple-A Worcester in place of Duvall, and utilityman Rob Refsnyder started tonight’s game in center field.

Duvall exited yesterday’s game after making a diving play in the outfield, appearing to injure the same left wrist on which he had season-ending surgery a year ago. He’s been not only the Red Sox’ hottest hitter but one of the hottest bats in all of baseball, opening the season with a .455/.514/1.030 batting line and four home runs in 37 trips to the plate.

While no one can be expected to continue on at that pace — Duvall is a career .233/.292/.472 hitter — there were still some encouraging gains in this season’s early showing. Duvall’s 25.6% chase rate on pitches of the plate is the lowest of his career and an improvement by 10 percentage points over his career mark, and his 85.5% contact rate dwarfs his career mark of 74.2%. Unsurprisingly, given the early improvements in his approach, Duvall’s 13.5% strikeout rate is less than half his career 28.3% mark.

With Duvall sidelined, it’ll likely fall to Refsnyder and Raimel Tapia to man things in center field. Refsnyder will get the first crack at that tonight, with the Sox facing left-hander Jalen Beeks in tonight’s date with the undefeated Rays. Moving forward, it’s reasonable to expect the left-handed-hitting Tapia to get the majority of looks on the larger half of what looks like a conventional platoon. If the Sox want to shift Enrique Hernandez from the infield back to the outfield, he’d be another option in center.

The injury is tough for Duvall not only because it’ll derail his hot start but also due to the nature of his contract. Duvall is a free agent after the season, having inked a one-year, $7MM contract over the winter and was hoping for a healthy, productive campaign to line him up for a multi-year deal next winter. His contract also contains up to $3MM worth of incentives based on plate appearances. Duvall earns $500K bonuses for reaching each of 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances, as well as a $1MM bonus upon reaching 550 trips to the plate. Duvall’s broken wrist all but assures that he won’t reach the very top end of that bonus structure, though depending on how quickly he’s able to return, he could still have a chance to reach those first couple milestones.

Injury Notes: Duvall, Marte, Marlins

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Red Sox outfielder Adam Duvall left his game after suffering an apparent wrist injury while making a diving play in center field, as noted by Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. As noted by Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe, Duvall had x-rays done on his wrist, the same one on which he underwent season-ending surgery in 2022, following his exit from today’s game. No results have been announced regarding Duvall’s x-ray. Duvall signed with the club this past offseason on a one-year, $7MM guarantee.

Should Duvall miss significant time, Boston figures to rely on some combination of Raimel Tapia and Jarren Duran in center field, though the heavily left-handed Red Sox could also give Yu Chang additional starts at shortstop, allowing Enrique Hernandez to move from the infield back into center field, where he spent the majority of the past two seasons. Regardless of who ultimately replaces Duvall in the lineup, any missed time would be a real blow to Boston’s offense early in the season, as Duvall has raked to open the 2023 campaign. In his first 33 plate appearances this season, Duvall has slashed a whopping .483/.545/1.138 with four home runs, five doubles, and a triple while either scoring or knocking in 25 of the club’s 55 runs.

More injury updates…

  • Starling Marte left today’s game against the Marlins after the first inning due to what the Mets described as a neck strain.  Marte suffered the injury while stealing third base in the bottom of the first, as Marte’s slide took him headfirst into the knee of Miami third baseman Jean Segura.  He remained in the game for the remainder of the inning, but Jeff McNeil moved from second base to take Marte’s spot in the right field for the top of the second. Manager Buck Showalter expressed optimism regarding Marte, telling reporters (including Laura Albanese of Newsday) “so far so good” as it pertains to Marte having avoided a concussion. Any missed time by Marte seems likely to benefit outfielder Tommy Pham in terms of playing time, though it’s also possible that the club could call up a player like Danny Mendick to take some starts if Marte requires a trip to the injured list.
  • The Marlins had a pair of players leave today’s game as well, with Avisail Garcia exiting the game with what was termed “left hamstring soreness”, according to the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson, while J.T. Chargois exited with an apparent injury just three pitches into the seventh inning. Chargois, who the Marlins acquired from the Rays via trade back in November, has been a useful reliever in recent years, recording a 2.36 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 80 innings since the start of the 2021 season. Garcia, on the other hand, is entering the second season of a four-year deal he signed with the Marlins prior to the 2021 season that he has struggled to live up to to this point. Despite entering the contract as a career 104 wRC+ hitter coming off a strong 29-homer season in 2021 where he posted a wRC+ of 116, Garcia has slashed just .216/.259/.310 (62 wRC+) in his first 106 games as a Marlin, with a 28.9% strikeout rate above his career norms and just nine home runs.

Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall

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The Red Sox announced agreement Tuesday with Adam Duvall on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee that could max out at $10MM via incentives. The CAA Sports client will receive a $1MM signing bonus and a $6MM salary. He’d lock in an extra $500K for reaching 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances and would tack on $1MM if he hits the 550-PA mark.

Duvall, 34, started his MLB career with the Giants in 2014 and has since bounced around the NL, playing for the Reds, Braves, and Marlins. The highlights of his career thus far were the 2016 season, when he earned an All-Star selection with the Reds, slashing .241/.297/.498 (104 wRC+) with 33 homers in 150 games, and the 2021 season, where he earned a Gold Glove award, slashed .226/.287/.513 (107 wRC+) down the stretch for the Braves following a midseason trade from the Marlins, and won the World Series with Atlanta. On the season, Duvall led the NL in RBI with 113 while swatting 38 home runs.

Duvall returned to Atlanta for the 2022 season, but his age-33 campaign wasn’t nearly as productive as that 2021 season. A left wrist strain — more specifically, a torn tendon sheath that required surgery — quite likely impacted Duvall’s overall performance, but the regression was still pronounced. Coming into the 2022 season, Duvall had a career .241 ISO (slugging minus batting average). The .263 ISO he turned in during his 38-homer performance in 2021 ranked him 14th among all qualified batters. That power wilted considerably, however, with Duvall’s ISO shrinking to .188 — ranking 74th among players with at least 300 plate appearances. The resulting .213/.276/.401 slash was 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

The 2022 season saw Duvall’s average exit velocity dip from 89.8 mph to 88.3 mph, while his rate of barreled balls and hard-hit balls each dropped by more than three percentage points. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate jumped from a career-worst 31.4% in 2021 to an even higher 32.1% in 2022.

It’s impossible to say exactly how much that was due to his injured wrist and how much might be due to a general decline in skill. For a low-OBP slugger like Duvall, the loss in power is certainly concerning regarding his ability to play as an average or better bat on an everyday basis. That being said, Duvall still showed huge power against lefties in 2022 (.233/.282/.562, 129 wRC+) while posting a strong +5 OAA in just half a season split mainly between left and center field, showing he does still have value even if his power doesn’t return to its pre-2022 form.

With offseason acquisition Masataka Yoshida manning left and Alex Verdugo set to play right field, Duvall seems ticketed for time in center field — although he’d notably be a fine right-handed complement to either Yoshida or Verdugo, who each bat left-handed. Cotillo reported yesterday that the Red Sox believe Duvall to be capable of playing center field at age 34, despite the fact that he has just 593 Major League innings at the position.

Whether Duvall will play center on an everyday basis or be in more of a timeshare depends on the development of young Jarren Duran, whose meager .221/.283/.363 (78 wRC+) slash line in 2022 was held down by a massive platoon split; Duran slashed just .184/.238/.211 against lefties for Boston, translating to a virtually unplayable 22 wRC+. Against righties, however, he batted a more palatable .229/.293/.398 (91 wRC+). Duvall and Duran manning center would allow Enrique Hernandez to play the infield, helping to cover for the loss of Xander Bogaerts in free agency and Trevor Story to injury.

Even after an offseason that saw Boston extend Rafael Devers for $313.5MM and add Yoshida on a five-year, $90MM deal along with smaller pacts with Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Chris Martin, Chaim Bloom’s front office still has more to do ahead of Opening Day, even after signing Duvall. The top priority going forward has to be addressing the middle infield, where Hernandez can capably play everyday, but the top option to be his double play partner is Christian Arroyo. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, in whome Boston reportedly has interest, is the best middle infielder left on the free agent market. That said, Josh Harrison and perhaps even Jurickson Profar remain as potential options at second base and the Red Sox have reportedly explored the trade market for infield help as well.

With Duvall on board, the Red Sox are projected for an Opening Day payroll of about $190MM, with roughly $216MM worth of luxury-tax obligations on the ledger. That cash payroll mark is well shy of the $221MM at which they ended the 2022 season, while the current luxury level leaves about $17MM worth of breathing room before they’d be at risk of paying the tax for a second consecutive season. It should leave Bloom and his staff with some leeway as they continue to search for ways to augment the roster.

Chris Henrique of Beyond the Monster first reported the Red Sox and Duvall were nearing agreement. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported it was a one-year, $7MM deal that could max out at $10MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was first with the incentive details.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Hernandez, Arroyo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck

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Red Sox’s brass met with reporters and fans at their Winter Weekend convention this evening. Manager Alex Cora and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom each addressed the roster status with roughly two months remaining in the offseason.

The middle infield is among the biggest questions. With Xander Bogaerts in San Diego and Trevor Story set to miss at least a notable portion of the upcoming season, Boston has very little certainty up the middle. Adam Duvall agreed to a one-year deal earlier this week to man center field, likely kicking Enrique Hernández back to the infield.

Manager Alex Cora suggested that was currently the team’s plan, implying that Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). That leaves Christian Arroyo as the likeliest option to man second base. Bloom indicated the team remained open to adding help from outside the organization (relayed by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) but the Hernández – Arroyo pairing seemingly has the inside track among internal candidates.

Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond. He’s primarily played center field or second base, logging just 618 shortstop innings through parts of nine MLB seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has looked favorably upon his limited work there, rating him as nine runs better than average overall. Hernández has typically graded out as a solid or better second baseman and a particularly strong center fielder, where he spent the bulk of his time in 2022.

Arroyo has been in the Boston second base mix for the past couple seasons. He’s hit at a roughly league average level in both years, making plenty of contact to compensate for low walk rates. Arroyo has logged just under 900 major league innings at the keystone. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him an excellent 10 runs better than the average defender there, while Statcast has rated him as an exactly average gloveman.

There aren’t many middle infield options remaining in free agency. Elvis Andrus and Josh Harrison are probably the top players still available. The Sox have been loosely tied to both in recent days. Donovan Solano, César Hernández and José Iglesias are among the depth types remaining as well.

There’s also a fair amount of uncertainty on the pitching side of things in Fenway, largely thanks to injury. Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock each ended the 2022 season on the injured list. Whitlock is returning from hip surgery, while Houck underwent a back procedure. Sale had myriad health concerns that culminated in surgery to repair a fracture in his right wrist sustained in a bicycle accident.

Cora said this evening that all three pitchers have been throwing off a mound (relayed by Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). All three could factor into the rotation. Sale’s a lock for the starting five if healthy. The Sox have already announced they plan to give Whitlock a rotation opportunity. Houck’s role seems more fluid, as he could crack the starting five or remain in a high-leverage relief capacity. The former first-round pick has been the subject of some recent trade speculation, though there’s no indication a deal is on the horizon or especially likely to transpire.

Mets To Sign Tommy Pham

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Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.

Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.

10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.

9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.

Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.

Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.

From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.

Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.

While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.

The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.

On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.

Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Adam Duvall

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The Red Sox are among the teams pursuing free-agent outfielder Adam Duvall, as first reported by Chris Henrique of Beyond the Monster. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that a resolution on Duvall’s free agency, be it him signing with the Sox or another club, could come as soon as this week. The Red Sox, Cotillo adds, view Duvall as “plenty capable” of playing center field.

Slotting Duvall into the center field mix alongside left-handed-hitting Jarren Duran would allow Boston to shift Enrique Hernandez back to the middle infield, in the wake of Trevor Story’s recent elbow surgery. Duvall doesn’t have pronounced platoon splits — he draws slightly more walks against lefties but hits for similar power and has an identical .230 average against lefties and righties — so it’s possible that he could even be thrust into center field on a regular basis, if the Sox are comfortable with the defensive component of that fit.

Duvall, 34, has elite defensive grades in left field in his career but has just 593 innings in center field — most of which came with the Braves over the past two seasons. He’s fared well there, too, logging four Defensive Runs Saved and five Outs Above Average in that limited time.

With the bat, Duvall has clear plus power, but he’s never gotten on base much and has also grown increasingly strikeout-prone in recent years (30.4% over the past four seasons). His 2022 season was cut short by a torn tendon sheath in his wrist, leaving him with an ugly .213/.276/.401 batting line and a dozen homers in 315 trips to the plate. Duvall smashed 38 home runs as recently as 2021, but that was accompanied by his typical blend of low average and OBP marks; in 555 plate appearances for Atlanta in ’21, Duvall hit .228/.281/.491.

That’s par for course for Duvall, a career .230/.289/.465 hitter who has thrice topped 30 home runs in a given season and also has a 2021 Gold Glove Award under his belt. If he’s back to full strength last year’s season-ending wrist surgery, he could give the Red Sox a much-needed right-handed bat in a lineup where only Hernandez, Justin Turner and Christian Arroyo project for regular reps. Bench options like Bobby Dalbec and Rob Refsnyder could give Boston some additional righty bats on days they face a left-handed starter.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said last week that following Story’s injury, he’d likely seek multiple up-the-middle additions to the lineup. Duvall, assuming he plays center field, could fit that billing, but the Sox would likely still have other additions in store. Boston was also connected to former Rangers, A’s and White Sox infielder Elvis Andrus over the weekend. Boston currently projects to have a payroll of about $183.5MM next season and has a bit more than $209MM in luxury-tax obligations on the books — both of which are well shy of last year’s totals.

Mets Interested In Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall

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The Mets have Trey Mancini and Adam Duvall “on their radar,” according to Andy Martino of SNY.

Mancini, 31 in March, put up a monster season in 2019, hitting 35 home runs and batting .291/.364/.535. Although that was the “juiced ball” season, that production was still 32% better than league average, as evidenced by his 132 wRC+. He then missed the 2020 season while undergoing treatment for a colon cancer diagnosis, but he made an inspiring return to the field the following year.

Over the past couple of seasons, Mancini has settled in as a cromulent player, although a notch below that excellent 2019 showing. He’s produced a combined .247/.323/.412 batting line in 2021 and 2022, leading to a wRC+ of 104. He’s provided some above-average defense at first base while also playing the outfield corners on occasion. His market has been fairly quiet thus far this winter, with the Cubs lone team showing reported interest. However, that was before they signed first baseman Eric Hosmer, which perhaps dampens their interest in Mancini.

Duvall, 34, is coming off a down year, though he had a good showing in the prior campaign. He’s always been a high-strikeout guy and that was indeed the case again in 2021. He was punched out in 31.4% of his plate appearances but also hit 38 home runs. That led to a batting line of .228/.281/.491 for a wRC+ of 103. He also provided excellent outfield defense, winning a Gold Glove in right field as a result.

Unfortunately, Duvall took a step back last year. He hit .213/.276/.401 for a wRC+ of 87 before his season was cut short by wrist surgery in July. That’s certainly not an ideal platform for this trip into free agency but he showed what he’s capable of the year before. Like Mancini, his market has been relatively quiet this offseason, with this appearing to be the first public connection to a team.

The Mets have seemingly been on the lookout for a complementary player to add to their outfield mix. Their interest in Andrew McCutchen was reported yesterday, and now this interest in Mancini and Duvall adds a couple more names into the mix. All three players are right-handed bats who have at least some capability to spend some time in the outfield. The current outfield should feature Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Mark Canha taking up the bulk of the time, but it makes sense to add to it for injury insurance. Khalil Lee could be used as a fourth outfielder but he had a poor season in Triple-A last year and still has an option remaining.

Darin Ruf is in the mix as someone who can occasionally play outfield and platoon with lefty Daniel Vogelbach at designated hitter. However, he struggled badly after coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Giants. He was hitting .216/.328/.373 at the time of the deal but produced an ice-cold line of .152/.216/.197 after. It seems the club is hoping to bring in another option for that job, with McCutchen, Mancini and Duval three names under consideration. Some other options still available in free agency include Tommy Pham, Brian Anderson and the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar.

Which Remaining Free Agent Hitters Were Shifted The Most In 2022?

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It was announced back in September that Major League Baseball would be implementing some new rules for the 2023 season. One such change will be the limiting of defensive shifts, with teams required to have two infielders on each side of second base and all four on the near side of the outfield grass at the time the pitch is released.

The exact ramifications of these changes will be discovered as the 2023 season progresses, but the hope is that some routine grounders turn into hits instead. Those players who have been shifted the most could stand to reap the most benefit from the new environment. The prototypical example of the hitter that is the most harmed by the shifts has been a plodding and pull-happy left-hander who can be neutralized by having an infielder in deep right field. However, each player is unique and will have been attacked in different ways, so let’s look at the data, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances required to be considered here. Which free agents were shifted the most in 2022? (Quick note that Stephen Vogt has been excluded since he previously announced 2022 would be his last season.)

1.  Rougned Odor – 93.8%
2. Kole Calhoun – 93.4%
3. Zack Collins – 88.9%
4. Brett Phillips – 88%
5. Brandon Belt – 85.2%
6. Mike Ford – 84.6%
7. Jed Lowrie (as a lefty) – 83.5%
8. Robbie Grossman (as a lefty) – 82.6%
9. Michael Perez – 81.8%
10. Mike Moustakas* – 81%
11. Tommy La Stella* – 80.5%
12. Josh VanMeter – 79.7%
13. Luke Voit – 76.9%
14. Colin Moran – 75%
15. Adam Duvall – 71.7%
16. Gary Sánchez – 70.5%
17. Dominic Smith – 70.4%
18. Jackie Bradley Jr. – 64%
19. Jurickson Profar (as a lefty) – 63.8%
20. Didi Gregorius – 60.3%

(* – Moustakas and La Stella technically aren’t free agents right now. However, they were both recently designated for assignment and are likely to be released given their onerous contracts.)

Odor has been quite awful at the plate recently, with his batting average finishing at .207 or below in each of the past four years. However, his batting average on balls in play has been at .244 or below in each of those seasons, well below his earlier career marks and the .290 league average in 2022. Perhaps the shift bans could get him closer to his earlier career number when he hit between .259 and .271.

Belt hit .285/.393/.595 over 2020 and 2021, good enough for a wRC+ of 162 which trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among all MLB hitters in that time. He was actually shifted more in those two seasons than he was in 2022. Injuries limited him to just 78 games and tepid production this year, but perhaps better health and some more open space on the field could help him return to being one of the best hitters in the league.

As for the rest, some of these guys are role players or aging veterans, but a few of them could be sneaky value pickups in the latter half of the offseason. Like Belt, many of them are coming off disappointing and/or injury-marred years and will be looking to bounce back in 2023. Grossman posted a 118 wRC+ over 2020 and 2021 but just an 82 this year. Voit had a 153 wRC+ in the shortened 2020 season but dipped to 112 and 102 in the past two campaigns. Duvall had a 108 wRC+ over 2019-2021 but an 87 here in 2022. Sánchez recorded a 143 wRC+ in his first two seasons but just a 96 in the following five years, including an 89 in the most recent campaign. Smith posted a huge 150 wRC+ over 2019 and 2020 but has slid to just 82 since. Profar is coming off a decent campaign and is arguably the best free agent still unsigned.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Duvall

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Thanks to a busy month of December, most of the top free agents from this offseason are off the board, assuming the Carlos Correa deal with the Mets eventually gets over the finish line. From MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, only three remain unattached: Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin and Michael Wacha. That means that teams still looking for upgrades will have to sift through the remainders, looking for talent that other clubs have overlooked.

One interesting candidate who deserves a look is Adam Duvall, who hasn’t been written about on MLBTR since August. If any teams have interest in him, it hasn’t been leaked to the public yet. It’s not especially shocking that his market has been quiet to this point. His 2022 was cut short in July when he required season-ending wrist surgery. He also limped to a .213/.276/.401 line in the first few months of the season while striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. That production was 13% below league average, as indicated by his 87 wRC+.

That’s certainly not an ideal platform for a trip into free agency, but there are still things to like about Duvall. The plate discipline issue has always been there, as he has a career 6.7% walk rate and has never finished a season above 8.7%. He’s struck out in 28.5% of his career trips to the plate and has been at 25.8% or above in each season of his career. For reference, this year’s league averages were an 8.2% walk rate and 22.4% strikeout rate. However, he’s always paired that with tremendous power, topping 30 home runs in a season three times. He also hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season and 12 this year prior to being shut down.

He’s also considered to be a strong defensive outfielder. He’s tallied 58 Defensive Runs Saved on the grass in his career, 28 Outs Above Average and has a 22.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His DRS and UZR slipped to below average in 2022, but OAA still was quite bullish, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. His arm strength placed in the 78th percentile, his outfielder jump in the 74th and his sprint speed 67th.

If 2022 showed Duvall’s profile at its worst, 2021 showed how valuable it can be. He struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances and walked in only 6.3% of them, but he launched 38 home runs, stole five bases, led the National League in RBIs with 113 and provided excellent defense. He got a 9.9 from UZR, 19 DRS and +4 OAA. That DRS figure was tied with Michael A. Taylor for best in the league among all outfielders while the UZR score was in the top five. That was primarily corner outfield work, but 210 2/3 innings out of his 1155 total innings came in center field. He was awarded the National League Gold Glove award for right field. All told, FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement for the year.

Duvall is now 34 years old and coming off a down year, both in terms of health and performance. It would be easy to roll one’s eyes at the idea of a team bringing him aboard and giving him a significant role. However, the pickings in free agency are getting slim and every player still out there is going to have flaws in one way or another. Duvall likely won’t earn a tremendous salary in free agency due to his struggles this year, but he has the ability to provide strong corner outfield defense while playing center field on occasion. His plate discipline isn’t great but he has tremendous power. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift bans will boost his batting average by a few points, since he was shifted in 71.7% of his plate appearances this year despite hitting right-handed. Even with his struggles at the plate in 2022, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 86 games before the wrist issue put him out for the second half. He isn’t likely to kill you in a platoon capacity either, as his career splits aren’t drastic, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 otherwise. For a team looking for a low-cost flier to find some sneaky value this late in the offseason, they could do much worse.

Braves Select Top Prospect Vaughn Grissom, Activate Kirby Yates

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom from Double-A Mississippi and activated right-hander Kirby Yates from the 60-day injured list.

To open space on the 40-man roster, Atlanta activated first baseman Mike Ford from the 10-day IL and designated him for assignment and also transferred outfielder Adam Duvall from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Atlanta also announced that infielder Orlando Arcia is headed to the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain and that righty Huascar Ynoa has been optioned to Triple-A. That frees up a pair of spots on the 26-man roster for Grissom and Yates.

Still just 21 years old, Grissom was an 11th-round pick in 2019 who has skyrocketed through the minors, culminating in a .363/.408/.516 slash through his first 98 plate appearances in Double-A. That’s his only experience above A-ball, though this year’s .312/.404/.487 output in 344 plate appearances at High-A bear mention as well. It’s the second time this season that the Braves have aggressively promoted a top prospect directly from the Double-A ranks, and it’s easy to imagine that the major success of Michael Harris II may have emboldened the front office to go back to the well a second time.

Despite that humble draft status, Grissom has ascended to the No. 77 spot on Baseball America’s latest top-100 prospect ranking and No. 98 over at MLB.com. He’s cracked 14 home run, 20 doubles and two triples across those two minor league levels this season, all while going 27-for-32 in stolen base attempts. Grissom doesn’t walk much (8.1% on the season but just four walks in 98 Double-A plate appearances), but he’s also fanned in only 12.2% of his plate appearances this season.

Grissom has been primarily a shortstop this season and throughout his minor league career, but the Braves have given him seven starts at second base and six at third base so far in the minors this year.  Scouting reports at BA. MLB.com and FanGraphs question his ability to remain at shortstop in the long run, but his bat is thought to be solid enough to profile at second, third or even in the outfield (though he’s played infield exclusively to this point in his pro career). In the short term, with Arcia headed to the IL and Ozzie Albies still mending a broken foot, it seems likely that Grissom will be ticketed for work at second base.

Starting Grissom’s service clock now sets him up for  a potential trip to free agency in the 2028-29 offseason, although plenty can change that trajectory along the way. Albies and third baseman Austin Riley are signed long-term in the infield, and it’s not yet known whether the Braves will be able to retain free-agent-to-be Dansby Swanson beyond the current season. Even if Swanson were to depart, Grissom wouldn’t be a lock to step right into the fray. He’s largely untested above Class-A, and while Harris’ success story is encouraging, it’s more common for players — even top prospects — to struggle following such aggressive promotions. Regardless, he’ll earn some big league service time this season, and his placement on the 40-man roster a year sooner than was required will accelerate his minor league option schedule.

Turning to the veteran Yates, he’ll add yet another high-profile, potentially dominant arm to an Atlanta bullpen that is hardly short on such commodities. The 35-year-old inked a two-year, $8.25MM deal this winter — a backloaded contract that pays him just $1MM in 2022 due to the fact that Yates has been shelved for the entire season to this point while rehabbing from last year’s Tommy John surgery. When healthy most recently, in 2018-19, he was an All-Star closer with the Padres, pitching to a combined 1.67 ERA with 53 saves, a huge 38.7% strikeout rate and a tiny 6.1% walk rate.

It remains to be seen whether Yates can recapture that form, but his work on a minor league rehab assignment thus far certainly creates some optimism. Across three Braves affiliates, Yates logged a combined 8 1/3 innings of one-run ball with just four hits allowed and a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’ll join Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek and Collin McHugh near the back of an outstanding bullpen.

As for the 30-year-old Ford, he’s gone hitless in eight big league plate appearances with the Braves this season and logged a combined .150/.320/.175 batting line in 50 plate appearances between Atlanta, Seattle and San Francisco. The former Yankees minor leaguer was never considered among the top prospects in the New York organization but does carry a .258/.355/.481 batting line and 61 homers through 1294 career plate appearances in Triple-A. With trades of players who’ve been on Major League rosters this season now prohibited after the Aug. 2 deadline, Ford will be placed on waivers within the next week and be made available to all 29 other clubs.

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