Boone: LeMahieu Will Be Yankees’ Third Baseman In 2024
As trade rumblings surrounding star Padres outfielder Juan Soto and the Yankees look to be nearing a tipping point, there’s other significant news in the Bronx as well. Manager Aaron Boone announced at the Winter Meetings this morning that veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu will line up as the team’s primary third baseman next season (link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Boone indicated yesterday that an outside acquisition at third base wasn’t likely, as the team felt covered with internal options. Today’s statement is a more forceful declaration of that likelihood.
LeMahieu, 35, is entering the fourth season of a six-year $90MM contract. He’s bounced around the diamond since originally arriving in New York in the 2018-19 offseason, spending considerable time at every infield position other than shortstop. Third base was his primary position in 2023, however, as he logged nearly 600 innings there and turned in a sound defensive effort in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved (3), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.2) and Outs Above Average (3).
The remainder of the Yankees’ infield looks largely set. Anthony Rizzo will return to man first base, while Gleyber Torres is entering his final arbitration season and lined up as the primary second baseman. Anthony Volpe had an up-and-down rookie season at shortstop, ultimately putting together a 20-20 season with good defense but an underwhelming .209/.283/.383 batting line on the whole. Prospect Oswald Peraza gives the Yankees some additional depth at any position other than first base, but with no clear path to a starting role at present, he could open the season in a utility role, covering multiple spots on the diamond and spelling the regulars. (Peraza is out of minor league options and thus cannot be sent to Triple-A.) The versatility offered by both Peraza and LeMahieu would allow the Yankees to rather seamlessly cover an absence anywhere in the infield.
The 2023 season wasn’t LeMahieu’s best at the plate — far from it — but he still turned in a roughly average (by measure of wRC+) .243/.327/.390 batting line with 15 home runs, 22 doubles and three triples. The veteran infielder walked at a strong 10.7% clip, the second-highest mark of his career, but also fanned at a career-worst 22.2%. LeMahieu didn’t expand the zone any more than he did in seasons prior — he actually improved his chase rate from 2022 to 2023 — but his contact rate on both strikes and balls off the plate dipped.
LeMahieu entered the 2023 season with a lifetime 92.7% contact rate on swings at pitches in the zone but saw that number drop to 89.8% last year. His contact rate on the relatively rare chases off the plate was more concerning; LeMahieu entered 2023 with a career 76.1% contact rate on balls off the plate (including a nearly 80% mark from 2020-22) but made contact on just 70.2% of such offerings last year. He remained productive against fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers alike) but saw his numbers against opponents’ sliders, sweepers and cutters take a big hit. Time will tell whether that’s the beginning of a more alarming trend or simply a one-year aberration.
With regard to the remainder of the offseason, LeMahieu’s formal anointment as the Yankees’ everyday third baseman is of note. The Yankees already acquired Alex Verdugo from the archrival Red Sox and are ostensibly deep in talks for the aforementioned Soto. That would constitute a major revamp of the outfield alignment, but it seems there’ll be more continuity in the infield. Torres has been floated as a possible trade candidate at various points, and Peraza’s presence could embolden the Yankees to make some kind of move if the right opportunity presented itself. But Torres was also the team’s second-best hitter behind Judge this past season, and the Yankees would surely only swap him out if it meant acquiring immediate MLB help elsewhere (be it in the rotation, behind the plate or possibly in the ‘pen).
Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks
The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.
All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.
It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.
But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.
Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players: C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.
Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.
It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.
As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.
Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.
Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.
It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.
Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks
Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.
While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.
The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.
[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]
If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.
That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.
That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.
Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.
Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.
Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.
The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.
San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.
Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.
Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.
Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.
As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.
Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award
Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.
Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.
The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.
The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.
But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.
Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.
Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Gold Glove Winners Announced
Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis. Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team. Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team. The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.
The list of winners…
- AL catcher: Jonah Heim (1st Gold Glove)….finalists: Alejandro Kirk, Adley Rutschman
- AL first base: Nathaniel Lowe (1st)….finalists: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Rizzo
- AL second base: Andres Gimenez (2nd)….finalists: Mauricio Dubon, Marcus Semien
- AL third base: Matt Chapman (4th)….finalists: Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez
- AL shortstop: Anthony Volpe (1st)….finalists: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager
- AL left field: Steven Kwan (2nd)….finalists: Austin Hays, Daulton Varsho
- AL center field: Kevin Kiermaier (4th)….finalists: Luis Robert Jr., Julio Rodriguez
- AL right field: Adolis Garcia (1st)….finalists: Kyle Tucker, Alex Verdugo
- AL pitcher: Jose Berrios (1st)….finalists: Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez
- AL utility: Mauricio Dubon (1st)….finalists: Zach McKinstry, Taylor Walls
- NL catcher: Gabriel Moreno (1st)….finalists: Patrick Bailey, J.T. Realmuto
- NL first base: Christian Walker (2nd)….finalists: Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana
- NL second base: Nico Hoerner (1st)….finalists: Ha-Seong Kim, Bryson Stott
- NL third base: Ke’Bryan Hayes (1st)….finalists: Ryan McMahon, Austin Riley
- NL shortstop: Dansby Swanson (2nd)….finalists: Francisco Lindor, Ezequiel Tovar
- NL left field: Ian Happ (2nd)….finalists: David Peralta, Eddie Rosario
- NL center field: Brenton Doyle (1st)….finalists: Michael Harris II, Alek Thomas
- NL right field: Fernando Tatis Jr. (1st)….finalists: Mookie Betts, Lane Thomas
- NL pitcher: Zack Wheeler (1st)….finalists: Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker
- NL utility: Ha-Seong Kim (1st)….finalists: Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman
AL East Notes: Volpe, Martin, Siri
It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe, who made the Opening Day roster and has stuck as the club’s everyday shortstop despite offensive struggles. Overall, he’s slashed .207/.283/.383 in 587 plate appearances this year while manning shortstop in 153 of the club’s games so far this year. Defensive metrics disagree on his glovework this year, with Statcast’s Fielding Run Value placing Volpe tenth among fifteen shortstops with at least 1,000 innings of work with a +1 figure, while Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved places him behind only Dansby Swanson in that same group.
According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees are pondering Volpe’s role headed into the 2024 season thanks to Oswald Peraza, who scouting reports typically grade as the superior defensive shortstop of the two, with Martino suggesting the club’s best defensive alignment involves Volpe at second base with Peraza at shortstop. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to such a change would be Gleyber Torres, the club’s incumbent second baseman. Torres has no defensive experience outside of the middle infield, but has been the club’s best hitter in 2023 this side of Aaron Judge with a solid .272/.345/.455 slash line.
Given Torres’s importance to the club this year, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees displacing him to accommodate Peraza, who has yet to establish himself with the bat in the majors. After all, Peraza has slashed just .194/.275/.275 in 178 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his .268/.357/.479 slash line in 300 Triple-A plate appearances this year could indicate another level to the 23-year-old youngster’s game.
More from around the AL East…
- Prior to today’s game in Baltimore, the Red Sox placed veteran right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day injured list with a viral infection. Right-hander Nick Robertson was recalled in a corresponding move. The move closes the book on what has been a sensational season for Martin after he signed with the Red Sox on a two-year, $17.5MM deal this past offseason. In 51 1/3 innings of work this year, Martin sports an astonishing 1.05 ERA that leads the majors among pitchers with at least 30 innings of work, just barely edging out Josh Hader‘s 1.16 figure. Martin figures to be a key piece of the Boston bullpen headed into the 2024 campaign.
- The Rays received good news yesterday regarding center fielder Jose Siri, according to MLB.com. Siri, who suffered a fractured right hand after being hit by a pitch earlier this month, underwent imaging earlier this week and received encouraging results, with manager Kevin Cash indicating that Siri could resume baseball activities as soon as today in an effort to return to the club this postseason. Siri has combined excellent outfield defense with a solid bat this season, slashing .222/.267/.494 with 25 home runs in 364 trips to the plate.
Yankees Notes: Payroll, Volpe, Bader
The Yankees sit in third place in the loaded AL East despite a 39-30 record. They’re unquestionably approaching deadline season looking to add to the roster. Erasing an 8 1/2 game deficit on the Rays to take the division is going to be a challenge, but New York currently occupies the second Wild Card spot.
How much payroll flexibility is at the front office’s disposal is an open question. New York had an active offseason highlighted by the record contract for Aaron Judge and the six-year deal to bring in Carlos Rodón. They appeared to hit their spending limit by Spring Training, however. Reports suggested they were loath to move their luxury tax number past $293MM, which marks the final tier of penalization. They entered the season with concerns about left field and the back of the rotation that have largely borne out in the first couple months.
Public estimates of the Yankees’ spending still put them right around that $293MM CBT mark. A club’s tax number is calculated at the end of the season, so their reported reluctance to surpass that figure could ostensibly limit their flexibility to add money before the trade deadline.
Hal Steinbrenner met with reporters (including Chris Kirschner of the Athletic) at this week’s owner meetings. The Yankee owner denied that the $293MM mark represented a firm cutoff, saying he’d consider moves he felt were difference-making acquisitions. Steinbrenner stopped short of promising a payroll uptick, though, saying “spending money for the sake of spending money, I just don’t know.”
Which players constitute notable upgrades will obviously be a point of conversation between ownership and the front office over the next six-plus weeks. While it’s still early for clubs to pinpoint specific trade targets, it’s easier to identify areas of need, particularly in the lineup. As measured by wRC+, the Yankees have been in the bottom third of MLB in offensive production at each of catcher, third base, shortstop and left field.
Not all of those will be upgraded upon midseason. Jose Trevino is a Gold Glove caliber catcher, so New York is probably content to live with fringy offense. Josh Donaldson has lost the bulk of the season to injury. He’s now healthy, and while he’s coming off a disappointing 2022 campaign, the Yankees will first see if he can reclaim third base before looking for alternatives.
Rookie Anthony Volpe has been the everyday shortstop, starting 63 of the first 69 games. The highly-touted prospect has struggled offensively through his first few months at the MLB level. Volpe is hitting just .192/.264/.359 while striking out over 30% of the time he’s stepped to the plate. He’s gotten mixed reviews on his glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as four runs better than the average shortstop in a little under 600 innings. Statcast has him two runs below par.
It’s not the kind of start for which the organization or its fanbase had hoped. Still, Yankees brass doesn’t seem concerned about the 22-year-old. Steinbrenner reiterated his faith in Volpe during yesterday’s media session, noting that he promised the former first-round draftee a long leash in Spring Training (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Skipper Aaron Boone also said yesterday the organization hasn’t given any thought to optioning Volpe to Triple-A (relayed by Talkin’ Yanks).
An outfield upgrade before August 1, on the other hand, seems quite likely. Left field has been a revolving door, with the struggling Oswaldo Cabrera and since-released Aaron Hicks getting the bulk of the reps early on. Lefty-swinging Jake Bauers has hit for enough power to hold down a corner outfield spot for the past month, but he’s a career .214/.308/.358 hitter.
Left field was a concern from day one, and the outfield has become particularly glaring with recent injuries to Judge and Harrison Bader. There’s still not much clarity on Judge, who has been down for ten days with a ligament sprain in his right big toe. Fortunately, Bader’s return from a hamstring strain appears imminent. He played in a rehab game with Double-A Somerset this evening and is expected back during the upcoming weekend series in Boston.
Boone: Yankees Working On “Potential Deal” To Add Pitcher
The Yankees are working on a “potential” deal to add a pitcher to the staff, manager Aaron Boone told reporters prior to today’s season opener (Twitter link, with video, via SNY). Boone didn’t futher tip his hand as to whether the Yankees are talking to a free agent or discussing a possible trade. However, they’re opening the season with 14 position players and 12 pitchers on their roster, reflective of both a potentially incoming arm and an off-day on the schedule Friday.
“We’re going with just seven guys in the ‘pen, obviously with an off-day tomorrow, where we have a potential deal going that’ll probably change that moving forward in the next day or two,” said Boone. “…A pitcher could be in play for us, that we add or not. Whether or not we do, we’d be in a position to pull from the minor leagues, too.”
New York’s pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries, evidenced by the sheer number of players who are beginning the season on the injured list. The Yankees announced today that lefty Carlos Rodon (forearm strain) and righties Luis Severino (lat strain), Lou Trivino (elbow strain), Tommy Kahnle (biceps tendinitis) and Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery) have all been placed on the 15-day injured list. Right-handers Scott Effross (2022 Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (2022 Tommy John surgery) both were placed on the 60-day IL. Center fielder Harrison Bader (oblique strain) and catcher Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm surgery) are both on the 10-day IL.
Also of note from Boone’s media session today, the skipper indicated that not only will Oswaldo Cabrera get the Opening Day start in left field — but he’ll open the season as the team’s primary left fielder (Twitter link via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). Aaron Hicks will still get some time against left-handed pitching, and Cabrera’s versatility means he’ll occasionally line up at other spots, but it seems the current plan is for him to be the most frequently used option in left field.
The 24-year-old Cabrera made his big league debut in 2022, slashing .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances. Originally expected to be in more of a versatile infield/outfield utility role, the switch-hitting Cabrera seized a more prominent role with a monster spring showing. In 57 plate appearances, he batted .340/.386/.623 with four homers, three doubles, four walks (7%) and 10 strikeouts (17.5%).
The Yankees also confirmed some previously known/reported moves. Top prospect Anthony Volpe‘s contract has been formally selected, and he’ll open the season as the Yankees’ primary shortstop. Right-hander Jhony Brito was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and is expected to start the team’s third game of the season on Sunday. And, as was widely reported yesterday, the Yankees signed outfielder/first baseman Franchy Cordero to a Major League contract and formally added him to their Opening Day roster.
Yankees To Select Anthony Volpe’s Contract
Top Yankees prospect Anthony Volpe has made the Yankees, according to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. Volpe, a consensus top 10 prospect in the game, is now poised to be the Opening Day starter at shortstop in the Bronx this season. The Yankees later confirmed the news on Twitter. Volpe will need a spot on the 40-man roster before Opening Day, though a 60-day IL transfer for an injured player such as Scott Effross or Frankie Montas could easily be used to clear space.
Volpe was selected out of high school in the first round of the 2019 draft by the Yankees as the 30th overall pick. After the 2020 minor league season was cancelled, Volpe broke out in 2021 with the bat, posting a whopping 1.027 OPS in 109 games split between Single-A and High-A. His success continued upon his promotion to Double-A at the beginning of the 2022 season, where he slashed .251/.348/.472 in 110 games even in spite of his deflated .272 BABIP. That performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he struggled for the first time in his professional career. His slash line declined to just .236/.313/.404 in 22 games in Triple-A last year, while his strikeout rate spiked from 17.7% in Double-A up to 30.3% in Triple-A.
Fortunately for Volpe, those struggles appeared to be behind him this spring, as he slashed an exceptional .314/.417/.647 in 60 plate appearance during camp. That outstanding offensive performance was enough for the Yankees to anoint Volpe the Opening Day starter at shortstop in spite of his minimal experience above the Double-A level and struggles late last year at Triple-A.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the Yankees’s every day shortstop in 2022, was already expected to move to a utility role entering the 2022 season, leaving the shortstop job open for a trio of youngsters: Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza. The switch-hitting Cabrera, according to Jack Curry of YES Network, is set to make the Opening Day roster as well, likely playing all around the diamond as he did in a 44 game stint with the Yankees last season. No decision has been made yet on Peraza, according to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. Peraza is widely considered to be the best defender of the three youngsters, has more Triple-A experience than Volpe, and hit well in a cup of coffee in the majors last year, but has struggled to a .644 OPS in 45 plate appearances this spring.
By adding Volpe to the Opening Day roster, the Yankees stand to earn a draft pick should he finish Top 3 in AL Rookie of the Year voting, as the Mariners did when Julio Rodriguez won the award last year. Volpe a consensus top prospect who plays a premium position, certainly seems poised as a potential preseason favorite for the award, though he could have plenty of competition, with Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles and Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox representing just two of the other interesting rookies who could contend for the award.
Whether Volpe ultimately secures an additional draft pick for the Yankees with his play this season or not, the willingness of Yankees brass to promote Volpe to open the season rather than hold him in the minors to open the year, which would have gotten Volpe more Triple-A experience and potentially securing an additional year of service time in the process, signals a clear intent to win now. That’s no surprise for a perennial contender such as the Yankees, particularly with reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge still in his prime and older veterans like Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu still figuring to be quality contributors to the club this year.
Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.
Five BHPs In The News
Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510
This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472
Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.
Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544
Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.
Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440
The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.
Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA
Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.
Three More
Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.
Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.
Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.