Carlos Correa Meets With Tigers Manager A.J. Hinch
Longtime Astros shortstop Carlos Correa — MLBTR’s top-ranked free agent — was spotted having breakfast with Tigers manager A.J. Hinch at a Houston cafe on Thursday morning (photo taken by Astros blogger Zach Hablinski). Hinch was, of course, Correa’s manager in Houston from 2015 to 2019.
It’d be dangerous to read too much into the meeting. Beyond his previous relationship with Hinch, Correa is widely considered the top free agent this winter and is likely to meet with quite a few teams. Still, it’s easy to draw the connection between the two-time All-Star and the club. The Tigers have made it very clear they intend to open their pocketbook this winter, and Correa makes lots of sense for a club with money to spend and a desire to push themselves into a contention window. Indeed, the Tigers, who have already added starter Eduardo Rodriguez (the biggest free agent signing of the winter so far) and catcher Tucker Barnhart, are widely expected to be among the most active teams.
Were Correa to make his way to Detroit, he’d less upgrade than revolutionize the Tigers’ outlook at the position. The position was something of a black hole for the club in 2021; Niko Goodrum, Zack Short, and Harold Castro each saw significant time, but none came particularly close to even league-average production. Each of the three (particularly Goodrum) has enough positional versatility to provide some value, but none are likely to be in the Tigers’ long-term plans. Combined with the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Barnhart, adding Correa wouldn’t necessarily vault the Tigers (who finished eight games below .500 in 2021) into contention, but he’d clearly make a team with a lot of promising young starting pitching better for years to come.
Very much in the prime of his career as he enters his age-27 season, Correa is coming off a platform year that saw him slash .279/.366/.485 (not to mention an astounding 20 Defensive Runs Saved) that more or less matches his career .277/.356/.481 line. Given both his offensive pedigree and his stellar glovework at a premium position he’ll likely be able to play for years to come, Correa is a pretty safe bet to demand a contract that at least approaches the market-setting 10-year, $341MM extension the Mets gave Francisco Lindor just ahead of this year’s Opening Day. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately sign for $320MM over ten years.
Though any effect it will have on his market will be negligible, whichever team signs Correa will be required to forfeit a draft pick, as he received (and rejected) a qualifying offer from the Astros. Only the handful of teams shopping in free agency’s premium aisle will have a shot at getting his name on the dotted line, but the Tigers will hardly be alone in pursuing his signature. The Yankees — who’ve made clear they intend to replace Gleyber Torres at shortstop — have explicitly put to rest any speculation that they’d avoid Correa due to fan resentment stemming from his role in the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, and will have plenty of money to spend after dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2021. Beyond the Tigers and Yankees, MLBTR lists the Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Cardinals as potential suitors in the Correa sweepstakes.
Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien
The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.
Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.
When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”
Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”
That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”
Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.
Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor‘s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.
Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”
$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.
Early Qualifying Offer Decisions
Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.
We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.
Rejected QO
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (first reported by Jon Heyman of the MLB Network)
- Eduardo Rodríguez, Red Sox (first reported by Jon Heyman of the MLB Network)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (first reported by Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (first reported by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (first reported by Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet)
Decision Not Yet Reported
- Brandon Belt, Giants
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays
- Trevor Story, Rockies
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets
- Justin Verlander, Astros
Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.
Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.
Latest On Tigers’ Pursuit Of A Shortstop
The Tigers continue to cast a wide net in free agency as they attempt to build off an encouraging 2021 season. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the team has already spoken to representatives for six of this winter’s premier middle infielders (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, and Chris Taylor). Morosi notes in a separate tweet that there’s some industry uncertainty over whether the Tigers would sign a player in the $250MM range, but that may have less to do with the team’s regard for the free agent shortstops and more to do with Detroit’s rotation needs.
It’s commonplace for teams to perform due diligence checks with agents in the offseason, even if the team isn’t optimistic about its chances to sign a certain player. Still, there is a perception among some in the sport that a few teams could be aggressive and move quickly in their pursuit of high-end free agents. The Tigers were among the teams listed as candidates to sign prominent players before the current CBA expires.
Detroit can afford to be opportunistic in the very literal sense that they have a ton of open payroll space. Even after extending Jonathan Schoop and their recent acquisition of Tucker Barnhart, the team has a projected 2022 payroll of just $93MM per Roster Resource. Non-tenders would shrink that estimate even further, and Detroit has a few prominent non-tender candidates (most notably Matthew Boyd) on large projected arb salaries. Given that the Tigers ran out a $200MM roster as recently as 2017, it’s easy to see the current payroll swelling in order to fling open the team’s competitive window.
Owing to this financial flexibility and a middle-infield that collectively posted a sub-.700 OPS last season, it’s understandable why the team would zero in on the solutions presented on the open market. Complicating this approach, however, is that Detroit has a very young rotation that posted middling run-prevention numbers last year.
The high-upside group of starters is likely to tap into some of its potential with more experience, but there’s validity in surrounding this pitching core with more proven commodities. After all, even if the team is hopeful each of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning take a step forward, certain rotation-wide stats like a 4.66 FIP (4.17 ERA) and a low 18.8% strikeout rate portray a staff that is very much headed for regression.
Those three youngsters, of course, were not the only members of this past season’s rotation. Both Boyd and Spencer Turnbull soaked up innings for Detroit in 2021, providing some of the best numbers the pitching staff had to offer. Unfortunately, both players saw their productive seasons end prematurely. Boyd pitched to a personal-best 3.89 ERA across 15 starts for the team before being shut down to undergo forearm surgery that looks likely to lead to him being let go.
The 29-year-old Turnbull was amidst an even stronger season. Through eight starts and 50 innings, the right-hander posted a 2.88 ERA with superb command and ground-ball tendencies, to say nothing of the no-hitter he twirled against Seattle in May. News broke that Turnbull would require Tommy John surgery in July and, similar to Boyd, will likely miss the majority of the 2022 season. While the injury-created voids in next year’s rotation are far from ideal, one silver lining is that Detroit will at least maintain control of Turnbull through the 2024 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).
Taking a two-pronged approach to the free agent market makes perfect sense then, since the Tigers can invest just about any level of resources to upgrade their middle infield and then use another chunk of their payroll to buttress their rotation. Detroit has already been linked to a number of mid-rotation starters, giving them multiple avenues to make a splash this offseason.
Astros Notes: Correa, Verlander, Meyers
At the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, California, Astros’ general manager James Click spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle about the team’s shortstop vacancy, although he claims not to see it that way.
Most of Houston’s playing time at shortstop over the past seven seasons has gone to Carlos Correa, who is now a free agent. The club reportedly made Correa an offer before he hit the open market, although it apparently fell well short of the industry expectations surrounding his earning power. The five-year, $160MM offer was exactly half of MLBTR’s recent prediction of 10 years and $320MM, making it not terribly surprising that Correa didn’t trip over himself to get out his pen.
In the article, Rome opines that the offer is merely a way for the front office to claim that they made an effort, and then pivot to free agents that can be had on short-term deals, or no free agents at all, with the aim of keeping the position available to be claimed by prospect Jeremy Pena. Due to wrist surgery, Pena only played 30 games at Triple-A this year, but they went very well. The 24-year-old hit .287/.346/.598, for a wRC+ of 126. He comes in at #42 on the FanGraphs list of top prospects across the league, although he doesn’t crack the top 100 at Baseball America or MLB Pipeline.
Until his arrival at the big leagues, the club could consider the in-house option of Aledmys Diaz, as Click describes him as “more than qualified” to take the job. Diaz has a lot of time at shortstop on his resume, but not recently, just 14 games in the last three seasons. That lack of recent work at short and his roughly league-average offense over the past two seasons would certainly be a downgrade from Correa, who is elite on both sides of the ball.
One option not being taken seriously, however, is moving Alex Bregman from this base to shortstop. When asked about that option, Click said, “I would highly doubt it” and later added, “I don’t want to get too cute by half and try to jam a square peg into a round hole.” Bregman was primarily a shortstop before reaching the big leagues, sliding to third because of the presence of Correa. He saw some significant time there in 2019 when Correa was hurt, getting into 65 games, but hasn’t played there since. The move doesn’t seem to be totally off the table, though, as Click added that he “would have to talk to Alex about it.”
In a separate post, Rome speaks to Click about the pitching situation, with Click saying that the bullpen is a bigger need than the rotation. “I know that people have started probably mentally thinking of Cristian Javier as a reliever, but we don’t think that way,” Click says, “and having him as a starting pitching option is very real for us and creates a lot more depth.” Including Javier as a starter certainly does make the rotation look healthy, with Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi all on hand as viable options. The club also has an outstanding $18.4 qualifying offer in front of Justin Verlander at the moment, although based on the success of his recent showcase, the odds seem to be in favour of him declining and exploring the market. Click himself spoke positively about Verlander’s performance at the showcase, as relayed by Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Odorizzi’s level of participation seems to be a question mark, however, as Rome details how the hurler wasn’t happy with his usage at times, displeased with the club’s hesitance at letting him face a batting order for a third time. He’s entering his final guaranteed year as an Astro but has a player option for 2023.
Elsewhere in Astros land, the club got some bad news regarding Jake Meyers, per Rome. Meyers left game four of the ALDS with a shoulder injury and never returned. He recently had surgery to repair a labral tear and isn’t expected to be playing by Opening Day 2022. That will hurt the club’s center field depth, as they had traded away Myles Straw at the deadline, in part because Meyers was ready to step up and take his place. The plan went very well before the injury, as Meyers hit .260/.323/.438 for a wRC+ of 111 in 49 games, along with a good showing in four postseason games. As long as Meyers is on the shelf, Houston’s top options in center will likely be Chas McCormick and Jose Siri, although moving Kyle Tucker from right to center is also on the table. “We have to decide, ‘Do we want to consider moving Kyle to center and then going shopping for a corner guy?’” Click said, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. “‘Do we want to have Kyle in center and have Chas and Siri and Yordan and Brantley be kind of rotating through all those spots?’” The market for free agent center fielders isn’t strong, with Starling Marte representing the only true everyday option. The market for corner outfielders, however, has many more exciting options. If the club feels comfortable with Tucker up the middle, it could make sense to take that route. At the big league level, he’s only played five regular season games in center in his career, although he saw some time there this postseason after Meyers got hurt.
Yankees’ Cashman On Carlos Correa, Anthony Rizzo
The GM Meetings are taking place in Carlsbad, California, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to reporters yesterday. Cashman said he has “some latitude” on the team’s budget, after talking to owner Hal Steinbrenner. The club was able to stay below the base luxury tax threshold of $210MM this year, effectively resetting as a first-time payor for future penalties – if something resembling the current system remains in place in the next collective bargaining agreement.
Cashman acknowledged to reporters that he’s already had talks with the agents for two free agent shortstops. Those players are Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden. ESPN’s Buster Olney is hearing that the Yankees’ pursuit of a shortstop will remain focused on elite players of this nature. Chandler Rome from the Houston Chronicle has more from Cashman on the Yankees’ interest in Correa. Cashman explained, “(Correa) is just a very talented player, obviously. Puts up numbers with the best of them. He’s obviously had an incredible career thus far. Certainly not afraid. He’s pushed forward, regardless of the circumstances. He’s clearly not afraid because (the sign-stealing fallout) has not affected his play.”
There’s been a sentiment that perhaps Yankees fans would not tolerate or accept Correa. That doesn’t seem to be Cashman’s primary concern, as the fans’ reaction “is not going to enter my calculus right now.”
Correa, who seems unlikely to sign before a potential December lockout, is reported to have received a five-year, $160MM offer from the Astros that seems more for show than anything. As the top player on the free agent market, Correa is in line for $300MM or more.
Cashman has also spoken to the agent for first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who appeared in 50 games for the Yankees after a July trade. The GM noted, “He obviously was really good for us, we feel, both on the offensive side and on the defensive side and on the leadership side, so he brings a lot of good things to the table. I know he liked it here, I know we liked having him, but nothing has gone past that.” Rizzo, 32, put up a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees. In projecting a three-year, $45MM contract, MLBTR took into account intangibles like Rizzo’s reputation around the game.
The Yankees still have an incumbent first baseman in Luke Voit, who was limited to 68 games on the season due to injuries. MLBTR projects Voit to earn $5.4MM next year, and it’s possible the Yankees move on from him. Voit’s troublesome left knee is “resolved,” according to Cashman.
Perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Yankees at first base is a trade for Matt Olson of the Athletics. Olson, 28 in March, posted a 146 wRC+ with 39 home runs this year and is projected to earn $12MM through arbitration. According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, the Yankees have internally discussed trading for Olson.
The Yankees would also like to add some help in center field, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Aaron Hicks, who played in only 32 games this year, is still owed $41MM through 2025. Hicks, whose season ended in May due to wrist surgery, hopes to play winter ball, noted Lindsey Adler of The Athletic back in October. The Yankees filled the void this year with 38-year-old Brett Gardner, who recently declined his $2.3MM player option in favor of a $1.15MM buyout. The free agent market for center fielders also includes Starling Marte, Juan Lagares, Chris Taylor, Kevin Pillar, and eventually Odubel Herrera. The trade market could include Kevin Kiermaier, Ketel Marte, and Byron Buxton.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT. With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…
- Brandon Belt, Giants (link)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (link)
- Freddie Freeman, Braves (link)
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels (link)
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
- Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Verlander, Astros (link)
This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs. Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.
These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.
If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)
If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.
With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.
2021 Gold Glove Winners Announced
The 2021 Gold Glove winners were announced tonight, with plenty of Cardinal Red to be found amidst the gold. The Cardinals became the first team to ever have five players capture Gold Gloves, underlining the tremendous all-around defensive effort that helped St. Louis reach the postseason. Ironically, the only nominated Cardinals player who didn’t win was the most decorated name of the group — nine-time winner Yadier Molina.
The A’s, Royals, Astros, and the World Series champion Braves also had multiple winners, with each club boasting two Gold Glovers. Ten of the 18 winners captured their first Gold Gloves, though some veteran winners continued to shine. The most notable of the multiple-time winners is Nolan Arenado, who becomes the 23rd player to ever win nine or more Gold Gloves in his career. Arenado still has plenty of time to continue his climb up the all-time list, yet catching 16-time winner Brooks Robinson for the all-time third base record may be a tall order even for Arenado.
Here is the full list of winners, as well as the other two nominated finalists at each position….
NL Catcher: Jacob Stallings, Pirates (1st career Gold Glove)
Yadier Molina/Cardinals, J.T. Realmuto/Phillies
NL First Base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (4th)
Freddie Freeman/Braves, Max Muncy/Dodgers
NL Second Base: Tommy Edman, Cardinals (1st)
Ozzie Albies/Braves, Kolten Wong/Brewers
NL Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (9th)
Manny Machado/Padres, Ryan McMahon/Rockies
NL Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants (4th)
Francisco Lindor/Mets, Kevin Newman/Pirates
NL Left Field: Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2nd)
David Peralta/Diamondbacks, AJ Pollock/Dodgers
NL Center Field: Harrison Bader, Cardinals (1st)
Jackie Bradley Jr./Brewers, Bryan Reynolds/Pirates
NL Right Field: Adam Duvall, Braves/Marlins (1st)
Mookie Betts/Dodgers, Mike Yastrzemski/Giants
NL Pitcher: Max Fried/Braves (2nd)
Zach Davies/Cubs, Zack Wheeler/Phillies
AL Catcher: Sean Murphy, Athletics (1st)
Martin Maldonado/Astros, Salvador Perez/Royals
AL First Base: Yuli Gurriel, Astros (1st)
Matt Olson/Athletics, Jared Walsh/Angels
AL Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st)
David Fletcher/Angels, Whit Merrifield/Royals
AL Third Base: Matt Chapman, Athletics (3rd)
Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Joey Wendle/Rays
AL Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Astros (1st)
J.P. Crawford/Mariners, Andrelton Simmons/Twins
AL Left Field: Andrew Benintendi, Royals (1st)
Randy Arozarena/Rays, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Blue Jays
AL Center Field: Michael A. Taylor, Royals (1st)
Kevin Kiermaier/Rays, Myles Straw/Guardians
AL Right Field: Joey Gallo, Yankees/Rangers (2nd)
Hunter Renfroe/Red Sox, Kyle Tucker/Astros
AL Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (5th)
Jose Berrios/Blue Jays and Twins, Zack Greinke/Astros
Astros Offer Carlos Correa Five-Year, $160MM Contract
When the Astros and Carlos Correa talked contract extension last spring, the shortstop said the Astros made him offers of six years and $120MM, and then five years and $125MM. While Correa is just hours away from the free agent market, the Astros are still trying to retain his services, and Mark Berman of FOX 26 (Twitter link) reports that the club’s last offer is a five-year deal worth $160MM.
This would be the largest contract Houston has ever given a player, topping the team’s five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve. The offer’s $32MM average annual value would also be the 10th-highest AAV of any contract in baseball history, making it a pretty significant commitment on the Astros’ part.
However, it is also drastically below what Correa is likely to receive on the open market. Correa is only entering his age-27 season, and he has already indicated that he’ll be looking for a pact in the nine- or ten-year range. It isn’t out of the question that Correa might even hit $32MM (or at least come close) in average annual value on such a long-term deal, so it doesn’t seem like Houston’s offer is going to inspire a late-minute change of mind on Correa’s part.
In fact, there is enough of a gap between the Astros’ offer and Correa’s asking price that it’s probably safe to assume the team didn’t have much expectation of Correa actually accepting the deal. There could be some public relations logistics at play, since the team can now present that $32MM AAV as a “we tried” gesture to fans upset over Correa’s departure.
However, the offer could also be interpreted as something of a public sign to other free agents about what the Astros are willing to spend on a top-tier free agent, if not Correa himself. The Astros haven’t gone beyond a five-year contract with any player during Jim Crane’s ownership of the team, and while Crane recently said “things could change” in that regard, it is possible they might be willing to only go as high as six years, judging by their initial offer to Correa. Houston does appear to be willing to make up for the lack of contractual length with higher average annual salaries, which could be of interest to other players. A free agent who is already past age 30, for instance, probably isn’t counting on a contract beyond five or six guaranteed years, and thus might be keen on a relatively shorter-term deal that promises a higher AAV.
Justin Verlander Still Awaiting Qualifying Offer Decision
Astros owner and chairman Jim Crane insists that his club has the resources they need to improve their ball club, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Crane did not mince words when speaking of his team needs, simply calling out the fact that the Astros will be looking for pitching and a shortstop, per Rome.
The latter need is the more finite and interesting of the two. Carlos Correa will presumably walk as a free agent, despite the resources that Crane touts as being available to his club. Certainly, for a club that has made three World Series appearances over the past five years, there should be no shortage of financial might.
The decision to let Correa walk, should they do so, is more a calculated evaluation of resource allocation. Still, it’s interesting for Crane to voice that position as one of need. Jeremy Pena has shown promise in the minor leagues, but it would be a tall order for Pena to step directly into the starting lineup for Correa, a franchise icon and two-time All-Star. The 24-year-old his an impressive .287/.346/.598 over 133 plate appearances at Triple-A.
On the pitching side, the Astros have already shifted to a new generations of arms led by the likes of Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia. Former ace and rotation stalwart Justin Verlander is still awaiting a possible qualifying offer, however. Despite missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery, the 38-year-old would be a high ceiling, short-term use of the Astros’ financial might, were they to go ahead and extend the qualifying offer. The deadline to extend that offer is Sunday, and the Astros are still considering their options, tweets Rome.