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Carlos Correa

Astros Offer Carlos Correa Five-Year, $160MM Contract

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When the Astros and Carlos Correa talked contract extension last spring, the shortstop said the Astros made him offers of six years and $120MM, and then five years and $125MM.  While Correa is just hours away from the free agent market, the Astros are still trying to retain his services, and Mark Berman of FOX 26 (Twitter link) reports that the club’s last offer is a five-year deal worth $160MM.

This would be the largest contract Houston has ever given a player, topping the team’s five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve.  The offer’s $32MM average annual value would also be the 10th-highest AAV of any contract in baseball history, making it a pretty significant commitment on the Astros’ part.

However, it is also drastically below what Correa is likely to receive on the open market.  Correa is only entering his age-27 season, and he has already indicated that he’ll be looking for a pact in the nine- or ten-year range.  It isn’t out of the question that Correa might even hit $32MM (or at least come close) in average annual value on such a long-term deal, so it doesn’t seem like Houston’s offer is going to inspire a late-minute change of mind on Correa’s part.

In fact, there is enough of a gap between the Astros’ offer and Correa’s asking price that it’s probably safe to assume the team didn’t have much expectation of Correa actually accepting the deal.  There could be some public relations logistics at play, since the team can now present that $32MM AAV as a “we tried” gesture to fans upset over Correa’s departure.

However, the offer could also be interpreted as something of a public sign to other free agents about what the Astros are willing to spend on a top-tier free agent, if not Correa himself.  The Astros haven’t gone beyond a five-year contract with any player during Jim Crane’s ownership of the team, and while Crane recently said “things could change” in that regard, it is possible they might be willing to only go as high as six years, judging by their initial offer to Correa.  Houston does appear to be willing to make up for the lack of contractual length with higher average annual salaries, which could be of interest to other players.  A free agent who is already past age 30, for instance, probably isn’t counting on a contract beyond five or six guaranteed years, and thus might be keen on a relatively shorter-term deal that promises a higher AAV.

Justin Verlander Still Awaiting Qualifying Offer Decision

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Astros owner and chairman Jim Crane insists that his club has the resources they need to improve their ball club, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Crane did not mince words when speaking of his team needs, simply calling out the fact that the Astros will be looking for pitching and a shortstop, per Rome.

The latter need is the more finite and interesting of the two. Carlos Correa will presumably walk as a free agent, despite the resources that Crane touts as being available to his club. Certainly, for a club that has made three World Series appearances over the past five years, there should be no shortage of financial might.

The decision to let Correa walk, should they do so, is more a calculated evaluation of resource allocation. Still, it’s interesting for Crane to voice that position as one of need. Jeremy Pena has shown promise in the minor leagues, but it would be a tall order for Pena to step directly into the starting lineup for Correa, a franchise icon and two-time All-Star. The 24-year-old his an impressive .287/.346/.598 over 133 plate appearances at Triple-A.

On the pitching side, the Astros have already shifted to a new generations of arms led by the likes of Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia. Former ace and rotation stalwart Justin Verlander is still awaiting a possible qualifying offer, however. Despite missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery, the 38-year-old would be a high ceiling, short-term use of the Astros’ financial might, were they to go ahead and extend the qualifying offer. The deadline to extend that offer is Sunday, and the Astros are still considering their options, tweets Rome.

Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Offseason, Provides Injury Updates

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During the press conference announcing the return of Aaron Boone as manager, Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered some insight into the club’s offseason plans. Cashman was open with regard to the Yankees’ needs, telling reporters he’ll need to offer Boone more flexibility in lineup construction (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Most notably, the GM addressed the club’s need at shortstop directly and candidly, stating that “[s]hortstop is an area of need. We have to address it.” With one of the most highly regarded classes of shortstops in free agent history about to hit the market, the big-market, big-spending Yankees are a near certainty to feature prominently in the offseason rumor mill.

As MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and ESPN’s Marly Rivera further noted, Cashman broke several pieces of news on the injury front: starter Jameson Taillon will undergo ankle surgery on October 28 and is expected to be out for five months. DJ LeMahieu, who underperformed expectations after a stellar 2020, has had a procedure to address a sports hernia that will keep him out roughly eight weeks. Cashman also noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks, out since a May wrist surgery, should be ready to resume baseball activities by December and hopes to play winter ball. Assuming all goes to plan, LeMahieu’s surgery shouldn’t have an impact on his availability to start the 2022 season, but Taillon’s timetable suggests he’ll only be ready to return to game action around the end of Spring Training, putting his availability for the Opening Day roster in question.

While Cashman suggested that he hopes to add more athleticism and contact skills to a lineup that had the sixth highest K% (24.5%) in the majors in 2021, Yankees fans have already begun to salivate over the forthcoming free agent market. All three of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story would bring a significant potential for star-level production to the Bronx — as might Marcus Semien or the enigmatic Javier Baez, potentially — and each would offer a significant defensive upgrade over incumbent Gleyber Torres.

Any from that group could represent an upgrade on both sides for the Bombers, but how Cashman views them remains to be seen. Though none are poor with the glove, Correa and Story (who have compiled 68 and 69 career DRS at short, respectively) have been a cut above the others. Correa will be 27 next season, giving him an edge in the age department, although Seager isn’t far behind as he heads into his age-28 campaign. Both Story and Baez will play next year at 29, while Semien — who played second base in Toronto this season but has a long track record at shortstop — will play next season at 31.

Though the Yankees are regularly players at the top of the free agent market, payroll implications may also play into their approach, as might the particulars of the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement (presuming, of course, that one is forthcoming). The club’s payroll came in just below the luxury tax threshold of $210MM in 2021, which may allow them to pay a lower rate should they become tax-payers again in 2022, but the only significant salary to come off the books is Corey Kluber’s ($11MM in 2021).

With a number of players set for significant raises in arbitration (most prominently Aaron Judge, though both club and player may prefer to reach an extension agreement), there’s not likely to be much room below the tax threshold for splashy free agent signings. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has not declared any plans to cross the threshold, but the club probably dipped below in 2021 for a reason. Paired with Cashman’s assertion that the Yankees will be “open to anything and everything” (Twitter link via SNY’s Andy Martino), the stage is at least ostensibly set for an active winter.

Following a season that saw them settle for a wild card spot and get bounced from the playoffs by the rival Red Sox, Cashman’s mixed tone is no surprise. Per Rivera, the longstanding GM described the 2021 Yanks remarkable inconsistency, stating that while they were at times “unstoppable,” they were at others “unwatchable.” As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch relays, Cashman addressed fan disappointment directly with the “obvious” admonition that “we want more. We expect more.”

Injuries clearly played a role, but poor performance also loomed large. Among players with more than 100 plate appearances, only Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Anthony Rizzo (acquired from the Cubs at the deadline) posted a wRC+ over 100 while wearing pinstripes. The club’s pitching fared somewhat better but was also bitten by the injury bug, with only Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Taillon notching 20 or more starts and potential high-end righty Luis Severino logging only six innings across four appearances as he made his way back from February 2020 Tommy John surgery. With Kluber out and Taillon a question mark, the club will likely look to dip into the pitching market for at least a depth piece or two.

How, exactly, Cashman will address these shortcomings remains an open question, but he did offer some insight into other offseason plans in the Bronx, including making clear that the club views Torres as a second baseman moving forward and is not entirely committed to Gary Sánchez as its everyday catcher.

Both players were disappointments in 2021. Torres posted a .259/.331/.366 line (down from career marks of .271/.340/.493 entering the year) and was eventually moved from shortstop to second basse. Sánchez regained some of the pop (23 home runs in 440 plate appearances) he’d shown from 2016-2019 alongside a career-high 52 walks but continued to struggle overall; he posted only a .307 OBP driven by a dismal .204 batting average and 27.5 K%. By DRS, both players also struggled with the glove, with Torres costing the Yankees nine runs in the field and Sánchez ten (while throwing out only 17% of would-be base-stealers).

With Torres permanently moving to the keystone and Rizzo’s future uncertain, LeMahieu will likely serve as the Yankees’ primary third baseman in 2022, perhaps sharing time there with Gio Urshela as well as Voit at first — assuming Voit is back in the next year. With the Yankees looking to add a shortstop to the mix, they’ll be left with four regulars (LeMahieu, Urshela, Voit, and Torres) for the other three infield spots. As none of this group has any significant experience in the outfield, a healthy roster might leave Boone facing something of a logjam for at-bats.

With Severino expected to offer quite a bit more on the mound in 2022, better health from Hicks and Voit and bounceback years from LeMahieu and Torres could already go a long way toward righting the ship for a club used to contending for titles year after year. Addressing their need at shortstop with a high-end signing that improves the team on both sides of the ball may go even further.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Barnes, Harvey

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If the Yankees pushed for one of the big shortstops in the free agent market, Joel Sherman of The New York Post believes Corey Seager would be the best fit, as his left-handed bat and contact skills would help a mostly right-handed Yankees lineup that contained plenty of swing-and-miss in 2021.  Marcus Semien is also a candidate, but Sherman isn’t as bullish on the chances of Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, or Javier Baez ending up in the Bronx.  “There seems to have been a steady falling out of love with Story” on the Yankees’ part, Sherman writes, while Baez drew some interest at the trade deadline but perhaps only as a short-term fix.  As for Correa, there might still be so much bad blood over the sign-stealing scandal that the Yankees might not want anything to do with a player who was such a prominent member of the 2017 Astros.

This assumes, of course, that New York will actually aim for one of the big names, rather than wait for highly-touted shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza to reach the majors.  Seager may also be a good fit in this regard, Sherman opines, as Seager could eventually be moved over to third base.  Or, depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement alters business, the Yankees could just opt for a stopgap shortstop as a bridge to Volpe/Peraza and spend resources elsewhere.

More from around the AL East…

  • “The first four months, five months, everything was perfect.  The last six weeks anything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong,” Matt Barnes told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, discussing the rough end to the season that turned the former Red Sox closer into a postseason question mark.  Barnes was enjoying a tremendous season until August, when he ran into some struggles on the mound and was then sidelined with a case of COVID-19.  If that wasn’t enough, Barnes revealed that he also suffered a self-inflicted left thumb injury in late September, as he sliced off the tip of his thumb while chopping peppers to make an omelet.  Barnes was able to keep playing, albeit with a bandage on his thumb and what Speier describes as “a hard plastic casing inside his glove so he can catch the ball without pain.”  Though Barnes was part of the roster for Boston’s wild card game victory over the Yankees, he wasn’t included on the ALCS roster and wasn’t originally on the ALDS roster until rejoining the team as an injury replacement.  Given the circumstances, it is difficult to see Barnes figuring into a potential World Series roster unless there’s another injury absence.
  • Between an oblique strain, a lat strain, and then a triceps strain that occurred while rehabbing the lat injury, Hunter Harvey pitched only 8 2/3 innings in 2021.  The 22nd overall pick of the 2013 draft, Harvey has been ravaged by a variety of injuries over his pro career, resulting in only 23 2/3 total MLB innings on his career resume.  “We’ll keep trying it until no teams want to try it anymore or until I figure out how to stay healthy. That’s my two options,” Harvey told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, and Harvey has confidence that he can prove himself as a reliable reliever for the Orioles if he can avoid the injured list.  Harvey admitted “there have been times I wanted to hang it up and not keep doing it anymore,” but he credited his father (former Angels and Marlins closer Bryan Harvey) with helping him stay motivated.  “He’s kind of talked me off that ledge a couple times, and he’s put that mindset in my head that it could be worse,” Harvey said.  “It just gets to the point now, it’s like, we’ll get through this and start back over and try it again.”

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Correa, Garcia

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Former Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter has agreed to join the Angels. The 46-year-old former first round pick of the Blue Jays  will “work with young pitchers on their mental skills and advancement toward the majors,” per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter worked in the Cardinals front office as a special assistant for a number of years, but he was let go as a result of pandemic-driven belt-tightening. The Angels can certainly use all the help they can get, especially after spending their entire draft capital on pitchers. Besides, Carpenter knows a thing or two about the struggle to establish yourself in the Majors. Carpenter is one of the most notable late developers in recent history, making his first All-Star team at age 30 after moving from his original franchise to St. Louis, where he became a Cy Young winner and three-time All-Star. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Despite his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal and the negative public sentiment that’s followed him since, expect Carlos Correa to cash in big this winter, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. MLBTR agrees, having placed him atop the free agent rankings back in August. Indeed, Correa has been the face of the Astros post-scandal, and even that could be construed as a positive for his next club. His talent is unquestioned, and he has certainly proved that he can withstand just about any level of public criticism.
  • Avisail Garcia and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2022 season, and Garcia will be first to make a move. As a note of clarification, that’s how all mutual options work, writes The Athletic’s Will Sammon. Garcia put up a resurgent campaign, slashing .262/.330/.490 with 29 home runs in 515 plate appearances. Garcia was one of the Brewers’ most consistent power bats, and they have a lot of money committed to their outfield even without him. Still, with a 14-man arbitration class, the Brewers might consider declining their side of Garcia’s option even if he does opt-in.

Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency

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Carlos Correa’s top priority is getting the Astros back to the World Series, so while the star shortstop’s free agency will be a hot topic once the season is over, Correa doesn’t want his 2021 campaign to end any time soon.  However, Correa did address his pending trip to the open market while speaking with NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer, and seemed to hint that a reunion in Houston seems unlikely.

The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM.  Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”

In his more recent remarks, Correa again addressed those preseason contract talks, saying “It was like, ’Take it or leave it; this is what we’ve got.’  And now my value has gone up.  If they didn’t want to meet my price in spring training, now that I led the league in [Baseball Reference] WAR at 7.2 and I’m in the playoffs helping the team, I don’t know if they’ll meet my price now.”

Earlier this week, Houston owner Jim Crane said that he feels his team still has “a chance” to retain Correa, and that the Astros will “definitely be in the mix” with the shortstop’s other suitors.  The Astros haven’t signed a contract longer than five years during Crane’s tenure, and while the owner indicated that “things can change” on that front, Correa seems to have his eye on a much longer commitment.

Correa celebrated his 27th birthday only a few weeks ago, making him a rare top-tier free agent who is hitting the market at a younger age.  “A lot of people don’t believe in 10-year contracts and in long-term deals and all that.  But when you look at most of the 10-year contracts they’ve been giving out, the long-term deals, they’re players that are 31, 30, 32,” the shortstop noted.  “I’m going to be 27 on my first year.  I’m young, I’m healthy, and I perform.  So we’ll see what happens.”

While another championship ring would perfectly cap things off for Correa, 2021 has already been an excellent platform year for the impending free agent.  Shohei Ohtani was technically the overall bWAR leader due to his unique two-way contributions, but as Correa noted, the shortstop did indeed lead all regular position players in bWAR while hitting .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs over 640 plate appearances.  That also marks his highest number of PA since 2016, as Correa avoided the injuries have hampered him for the previous four years and missed only a week due to a stint on the COVID-related injury list.

Between his youth, All-Star production, and possibly with some doubts silenced about his durability, Correa projects as arguably the top free agent on the market this winter, let alone the top option in a loaded class of shortstops.  In addition to his offensive numbers, Correa pointed out that he also led all players in defensive bWAR (2.9) in 2021, “so when you talk about shortstops that can do both things at an elite level, I think you should mention my name.”

While it remains to be seen just how high the bidding will get, Correa stressed that “I want to win.  Money’s great and everything, but I don’t want to be miserable in the clubhouse, losing every day.”  Wittenmyer’s piece was written through the lens of Correa as a potential fit with the Cubs, so the fact that the Cubs are coming off a losing season and may have more rebuilding to do might rule them out as a legitimate contender to sign Correa this winter.  For what it’s worth, Correa did talk glowingly about a pre-draft workout at Wrigley Field in 2012, though the Cubs never got a chance to pick Correa since the Astros quickly pounced on him as the first overall selection.

Astros Owner Jim Crane Discusses Correa, Verlander, Gurriel, Baker

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While Astros owner Jim Crane is focused on his team’s ALDS matchup with the White Sox, Crane talked about several impending offseason topics with FOX 26’s Mark Berman, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (all multiple links) and other reporters today.

With several major names scheduled to hit free agency, Crane said his team plans to “definitely be in the mix” to sign Carlos Correa, and “I think we have a chance” to retain the shortstop’s services.  Of course, “it just depends on where we end up on that and what Carlos wants to do.  Certainly dollars are a factor.”

The Astros made attempts to sign Correa to a contract extension last spring, reportedly making offers in the range of five years/$125MM and six years/$120MM.  Those numbers seemed low even before Correa delivered an All-Star performance in 2021, and the 27-year-old now seems likely to land at least twice as much money on the open market.

Re-signing Correa would require the Astros to make the biggest financial commitment in franchise history, which Crane at least sounded open to, if a little guardedly.  “I never count anything out….We have a history of doing something in the neighborhood of five (years) is the most we’ve ever done since I’ve been here,” Crane said.  “Things can change.  We’re not counting it out.”

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Lance McCullers Jr. have all signed five-year extensions with Houston during Crane’s stewardship, and it isn’t as if Crane has been unwilling to spend.  Altuve’s five additional years gave the second baseman $151MM in new guaranteed money, Bregman’s extension was worth $100MM, and McCullers landed $85.5MM.  That said, Correa said back in April that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts,” which could indicate that his contractual expectations go far beyond any commitment the Astros are willing to make.

Crane didn’t bring up the qualifying offer in regards to Correa, in all likelihood because it seems a foregone conclusion that Houston will issue Correa a QO and he’ll reject the one-year offer, leaving the Astros in line to receive draft pick compensation if Correa did sign elsewhere.  Justin Verlander is a bit more complicated qualifying-offer case given that the veteran ace has missed virtually all of the last two seasons with injury, but Crane said “we’ll probably” issue Verlander the QO “and then see where it goes.”

Even after two lost seasons and now on the verge of his age-39 season, Verlander is still “looking for a contract of some length,” according to Crane.  This would imply that Verlander would reject the one-year qualifying offer (though it would pay in the neighborhood of a $20MM salary for 2022) in search of a longer-term deal, and given Verlander’s track record, it certainly seems possible that at least one or even multiple teams would be willing to sign the future Hall-of-Famer to such a multi-year contract.

If Verlander did reject the QO, the Astros would at least benefit via compensatory draft picks.  However, Verlander has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept a qualifying offer, and if he doesn’t get wind of any teams showing interest in a multi-year deal, Verlander might choose to take the QO and remain in a familiar situation in Houston.  The Astros and Verlander’s camp could then negotiate a longer-term extension after the QO had been accepted, similar to what Jose Abreu and the White Sox did in the 2019-20 offseason.

There appears to be much less controversy surrounding Yuli Gurriel’s 2022 status.  The Astros hold an $8MM club option on Gurriel for next season, which looks to Crane like “a pretty easy decision.  I’m sure we’ll execute on that.”  The 37-year-old Gurriel is coming off a strong season that saw him hit 15 homers and win the AL batting title as part of an overall .319/.383/.462 performance in 605 plate appearances.

Beyond the player roster, manager Dusty Baker isn’t under contract beyond this season, as Crane said “we haven’t really talked about it.  We’re going to wait for things to get over with here” in the Astros’ playoff run.  Baker has led the Astros to the postseason in each of his two years in Houston, and the veteran manager has indicated that he would like to continue with the team.

Though Crane noted that GM James Click has authority over the manager’s job, “I’ll certainly weigh in on it and we’ll make a decision probably together on that one because I did hire [Baker] to begin with.”  Crane did give Baker some measure of a vote of confidence in noting that Baker “has done a great job for us.  I like Dusty a lot.”

Free Agent Notes: Correa, Iglesias, Rodriguez

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The upcoming free agent shortstop market has been talked about for awhile now, and we’re still a few months off from seeing how the whole thing plays out. Perhaps the most coveted of the soon-to-be available shortstops is the Astros’ Carlos Correa. One potential match for Correa’s services will be the Tigers, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

The Tigers are an up-and-coming team with plenty of financial flexibility, and it’s certainly interesting to think about Correa once again teaming up with his former skipper A.J. Hinch. As hard as it is to imagine Correa leaving Houston, they do have prospect Jeremy Pena waiting in the wings, making an exit at least feasible. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one of the most open shortstop situations in the game, with incumbent Niko Goodrum easily able to shift into a super-utility role.

Angels’ closer Raisel Iglesias figures to be another in-demand free agent this winter. His priority, however, is re-signing with the Angels, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange-County Register. Iglesias made the most of his first season with the Angels, tossing 69 innings in 64 appearances with a 2.61 ERA/2.87 FIP. He has notched 34 saves, a mark that will look attractive to contenders this offseason.

In terms of rotations arms, there are few with the upside of the Red Sox’ Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez and the Red Sox spoke about a possible extension earlier in the year, but there wasn’t much progress made and the two sides ultimately decided to table talks until the offseason, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. After complications from COVID-19 cost Rodriguez all of 2020, he has returned to his usual stable workload, making 31 starts for the playoff hopefuls.

Rodriguez hasn’t quite pitched to his pre-2020 level, though his 4.77 ERA may be a touch inflated. A 3.33 FIP suggests the 28-year-old hasn’t lost a step. He’s tossed 156 2/3 innings with an above-average 27.4 percent strikeout rate, 7.0 percent walk rate, 44.2 percent groundball rate, all numbers that will look good on Rodriguez’s free agent resume this winter.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Astros Activate Carlos Correa, Austin Pruitt

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The Astros have reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Austin Pruitt from the injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the White Sox. Correa had been on the COVID-19 IL, while Pruitt was on the 60-day IL all year after undergoing elbow surgery last September.

The Astros had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary in that regard. However, they will need to make a 40-man move whenever left-hander Brooks Raley, who also landed on the COVID IL last week, returns. To clear active roster space, infielder Taylor Jones was optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.

Correa’s having an incredible platform season, hitting .288/.385/.510 over 358 plate appearances while playing high-end defense at shortstop. Pruitt, meanwhile, will be making his first major league appearance since 2019 (and his Astros’ debut) whenever he enters a game. Houston acquired the righty from the Rays over the 2019-20 offseason, but the elbow issues that eventually required surgery kept him from pitching last year. He worked to a 4.87 ERA/4.23 SIERA across 67 appearances (ten starts) with Tampa Bay from 2017-19.

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