Boone: Yankees Working On “Potential Deal” To Add Pitcher
The Yankees are working on a “potential” deal to add a pitcher to the staff, manager Aaron Boone told reporters prior to today’s season opener (Twitter link, with video, via SNY). Boone didn’t futher tip his hand as to whether the Yankees are talking to a free agent or discussing a possible trade. However, they’re opening the season with 14 position players and 12 pitchers on their roster, reflective of both a potentially incoming arm and an off-day on the schedule Friday.
“We’re going with just seven guys in the ‘pen, obviously with an off-day tomorrow, where we have a potential deal going that’ll probably change that moving forward in the next day or two,” said Boone. “…A pitcher could be in play for us, that we add or not. Whether or not we do, we’d be in a position to pull from the minor leagues, too.”
New York’s pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries, evidenced by the sheer number of players who are beginning the season on the injured list. The Yankees announced today that lefty Carlos Rodon (forearm strain) and righties Luis Severino (lat strain), Lou Trivino (elbow strain), Tommy Kahnle (biceps tendinitis) and Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery) have all been placed on the 15-day injured list. Right-handers Scott Effross (2022 Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (2022 Tommy John surgery) both were placed on the 60-day IL. Center fielder Harrison Bader (oblique strain) and catcher Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm surgery) are both on the 10-day IL.
Also of note from Boone’s media session today, the skipper indicated that not only will Oswaldo Cabrera get the Opening Day start in left field — but he’ll open the season as the team’s primary left fielder (Twitter link via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). Aaron Hicks will still get some time against left-handed pitching, and Cabrera’s versatility means he’ll occasionally line up at other spots, but it seems the current plan is for him to be the most frequently used option in left field.
The 24-year-old Cabrera made his big league debut in 2022, slashing .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances. Originally expected to be in more of a versatile infield/outfield utility role, the switch-hitting Cabrera seized a more prominent role with a monster spring showing. In 57 plate appearances, he batted .340/.386/.623 with four homers, three doubles, four walks (7%) and 10 strikeouts (17.5%).
The Yankees also confirmed some previously known/reported moves. Top prospect Anthony Volpe‘s contract has been formally selected, and he’ll open the season as the Yankees’ primary shortstop. Right-hander Jhony Brito was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and is expected to start the team’s third game of the season on Sunday. And, as was widely reported yesterday, the Yankees signed outfielder/first baseman Franchy Cordero to a Major League contract and formally added him to their Opening Day roster.
AL East Notes: Manoah, Bautista, Yankees’ Injuries
The Blue Jays made a “contract suggestion” to star right-hander Alek Manoah this winter, but apparently the sides were not close, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Manoah is part of a young core, alongside Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr., that have been speculated as possible targets for long-term extensions.
Manoah, 25, put up a quality season last year, working to a 2.24 ERA over 196 2/3 innings and finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. That followed on from a strong rookie year in 2021, and cemented Manoah as one of the sport’s brightest young starting pitchers. As such, it’s not a huge surprise that the Blue Jays would have some level of interest in locking up the former eleventh overall pick long term. For his part, Manoah is still five years away from free agency but four of those should be arbitration-eligible, as Manoah is likely to qualify as Super Two player at the end of the season.
Here’s some more notes from around the AL East:
- The chances of Orioles closer Felix Bautista making the Opening Day roster appear to be growing, with manager Brandon Hyde looking to get Bautista into three or four more games before the team breaks camp, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN. He’s been highly effective in his two outings to date, displaying his triple-digit fastball. Bautista’s camp had been slowed by shoulder and knee injuries to start, but he looks to be on track now. That’s a huge positive for the Orioles, as the closer worked to a 2.19 ERA over 65 appearances last season.
- Bryan Hoch of MLB.com provides an update on some of the injured Yankees in camp. Starting with the bad news, reliever Tommy Kahnle has been unable to throw as scheduled as he battles biceps soreness. Kahnle re-signed with the Yankees this winter on two-year, $11.5MM deal after a few seasons with the Dodgers. He had been projected as a vital late-inning member of the Yankees’ bullpen, but it appears the start of his season will be delayed. It’s not known yet when Kahnle is next scheduled to pitch, but obviously it’s not great news for his recovery timeline.
- Left-hander Carlos Rodon returned to throwing yesterday and was feeling good, according to Hoch. There were plenty of fears after the Yankees announced that the oft-injured starter would be shutdown for 7 to 10 days with a forearm strain, but an MRI showed no UCL damage and it seems Rodon is back on track to start ramping up for the season. It’s already been confirmed that Rodon will start the season on the injured list, but a positive return to throwing for the six-year, $162MM free agent signing hopefully means it won’t be a long wait before he can make his Yankees debut.
- Hoch also reports that Harrison Bader is doing “better than anticipated,” relaying a quote from manager Aaron Boone. It’s a rather vague statement and there’s no indication that Bader is on track any sooner than the initially projected six week recovery timeline (three weeks of regular season action), but it’s at least a positive development as the Yankees look to overcome a number of injuries early in the season. Bader impressed in the playoffs for the team after coming over from the Cardinals at the deadline last year, crushing five home runs in nine games before the team was eliminated in the ALCS.
Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino To Begin Season On IL
Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters this morning, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that pitchers Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, and Lou Trivino will all begin the season on the injured list. Rodon is suffering from a mild forearm strain and will be shut down for 7 to 10 days, though Cashman notes that Rodon has already undergone an MRI and has no UCL damage. Kahnle was previously reported to be suffering from biceps tendinitis, while Trivino is suffering from a mild elbow sprain and will be out until May. This news is a significant blow to the Yankees pitching staff, which has already lost right-hander Frankie Montas to shoulder surgery.
Rodon figured to pitch at the top of the Yankees rotation alongside Gerrit Cole after signing a six-year, $162MM contract with the club this offseason. That contract stood as a clear gamble on Rodon staying healthy going forward, given his lengthy injury history. 2022 was just the second year of Rodon’s career where he had managed to pitch more than 140 innings, and it was the first such season since 2016. While Rodon’s newest injury (which Cashman describes as “not serious”) is currently only expected to force him to sit down for a week or so, it certainly brings to mind his career-long injury struggles. That said, Rodon has been among the best starters in baseball when healthy, as shown by his sterling 2.67 ERA (157 ERA+), 2.42 FIP, 33.9% strikeout rate, and 0.998 WHIP over the past two seasons.
Kahnle, who returned to the club this offseason on a two-year, $11.5MM contract, has managed just 13 2/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season, battling injuries ever since. That said, he has stood among the better relievers in the game when healthy, sporting a 3.44 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.16 FIP in 188 1/3 innings of work since the beginning of the 2016 season. Kahnle’s absence seems likely to be a shorter one than that of Trivino, who the Yankees acquired at the trade deadline last year from the A’s alongside Montas. Trivino pitched exceptionally down the stretch following his trade to the Bronx, sporting a 1.66 ERA (238 ERA+) and 3.34 FIP over the course of his 21 2/3 innings of work in New York. Both Trivino and Kahnle figured to feature prominently in the back of the Yankees bullpen this season, particularly as sidearming reliever Scott Effross is set to miss the 2023 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Though this trio of injuries certainly weakens the pitching depth available to the Yankees as they open the year, they still have competent options capable of stepping up and filling for the injured hurlers while they are on the shelf. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt were already figuring to battle for the fifth starter spot following Montas’s injury, and Rodon’s injury leaves the door open for both players to make the Opening Day rotation. That being said, the Yankees have little in the way of starting depth remaining should the rotation sustain another injury. Cashman mentions Deivi Garcia as one potential option, as noted by Erik Boland of Newsday Sports, but it would certainly make sense for the club to consider bringing in an external depth option such as Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer on a minor league deal, as well.
The bullpen picture is significantly rosier, however, as the Yankees still can rely on the likes of Clay Holmes, Michael King, and Wandy Peralta in the late innings of games. These injuries could also provide right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga an opportunity to work his way back into the late-inning mix for the Yankees after a difficult 2022 season where he posted a 4.15 ERA (95 ERA+) in 48 innings while sporting a reduced strikeout rate of just 18.2% and an inflated walk rate of 9.4%. Should the Yankees wish to acquire additional bullpen depth, there’s a few options still available on the free agent market, including right-hander Corey Knebel and former Yankee Zack Britton.
That being said, any external additions would likely require a change of heart regarding the upper limit of the club’s payroll or a trade to create payroll space. The Yankees have, to this point, seemed unwilling to surpass the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which stands at $293MM. That’s a line the club is pressed right up against, with RosterResource estimating their current 2023 payroll at roughly $292.5MM for luxury tax purposes. While third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks were seen as the most likely candidates for a salary-clearing trade this offseason, most clubs would likely balk at adding such significant salary to the books just three weeks before Opening Day, making someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa a more likely option for the Yankees to deal should they try and swing a salary-clearing trade.
Brian Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Injuries, Offseason
Yankees GM Brian Cashman was a guest on the latest edition of The Front Office with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, and discussed a number of topics related to the Bronx Bombers’ offseason. Perhaps most notably, some more moves could still potentially take place, as Cashman said the team would still like to add a left-handed hitting outfielder “to balance us out” in the left field mix.
While the Yankees have a noticeably right-handed heavy roster, left field is actually one of the only positions that already has some balance, between switch-hitters Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera, plus the left-handed hitting Estevan Florial. However, New York might prefer to move Cabrera all around the diamond rather than commit him to a fuller-time role in left field, Florial is still an untested commodity at the MLB level, and rumors continue to swirl that the Yankees are trying to trade Hicks and at least some of the $30.5MM remaining on his contract.
Cashman cited the Hicks/Cabrera/Florial trio as the team’s “default” for left field in lieu of any other moves, and noted that the Yankees are intrigued by what they see from their in-house options. Cashman said that Hicks “is fully recovered now” from the knee injury suffered in Game 5 of the ALDS, which kept Hicks from participating in the ALCS against the Astros.
In other health news, Cashman shared some details on Frankie Montas, following last week’s news that shoulder inflammation would keep Montas sidelined through the first month of the season. Montas is only set to begin his normal offseason throwing program this coming week, and thus he’ll need more time to fully ramp up. The right-hander visited Dr. Neal ElAttrache two weeks ago, Cashman said, and the silver lining is that Montas’ shoulder problem doesn’t appear to be structural. “All the diagnostic testing shows a thumbs up….and we’ll know a lot more as the throwing program commences,” Cashman said.
With Montas now sidelined for at least part of the season, the Bombers’ acquisition of Carlos Rodon has become even more important, as the starting staff might not miss a beat with Rodon joining Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes at the front end of the rotation. Cashman revealed that the Yankees first tried to acquire Rodon from the Giants prior to the trade deadline, and though the club “had our conversations with San Francisco” about a possible deal, the Giants opted to keep Rodon because they felt they still had a shot at both reaching the playoffs and re-signing the left-hander this winter.
As it happened, the Giants finished 81-81 and missed the postseason, and Rodon departed for the Bronx on a six-year, $162MM contract. Even with the Yankees focused on Aaron Judge, Cashman said the team “stayed in touch with [agent] Scott Boras and Rodon,” and the GM felt the Yankees were helped because “I know that this is the place [Rodon] wanted to be.”
Rodon’s interest in wearing the pinstripes was a boost to a club whose entire offseason was more or less put on hold while Judge made his decision. Even amidst the fast-moving nature of this winter’s free agent market, “thankfully there were things on the board still after [Judge re-signed], since we weren’t sure what was going to be in play,” Cashman noted. Once Judge had officially agreed to return to New York, “ultimately we were able to pivot” to also land Rodon.
There was certainly some risk involved in the process of making such a priority of Judge, as “certainly no team wants that scenario where you put all your eggs in that basket and then the basket comes up with goose eggs,” Cashman said. Still, the front office had little choice but to wait for Judge’s decision, especially since the AL MVP and his camp gave seemingly little information about which way he was leaning, despite Judge’s public declaration that he preferred to remain with the Yankees.
“I felt like for a long time we were flying blind,” Cashman said. “Normally you kind of get a feel for where things are at, and if you can come to the right number, or you get the numbers whispered….My speculative thought on [Judge’s] end was that he earned the right to free agency and he was going to go through that process in a very methodical, deliberate way.”
“In terms of negotiation, that waiting game….at times, it was difficult.”
Fortunately for Cashman, the Yankees, and the Bronx fans, Judge chose to re-sign for a nine-year, $360MM deal, and he’ll remain as the centerpiece of New York’s lineup. In terms of another returning face, “hopefully we have pure health on DJ LeMahieu‘s side,” Cashman noted, “since he was a huge part that we lost last year, really the last two years with two separate injuries.”
A sports hernia kept LeMahieu from participating in the 2021 postseason, while a ligament issue in his right foot/toe area sidelined him for last year’s playoffs. It wasn’t entirely clear whether or not LeMahieu would ultimately need surgery to correct the problem, and while Cashman didn’t firmly provide an update on the infielder’s status one way or the other, the lack of news could be a good omen that LeMahieu’s efforts to rehab the injury without surgery are working.
If LeMahieu is healthy, Cashman described his role as an infielder who can play every day while bouncing around the infield, playing first base, second base, and third base. Breaking down the starting infield, Cashman cited Anthony Rizzo at first base, Gleyber Torres at second base, Josh Donaldson at third base, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa competing with star prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe for the shortstop job. Naturally there still might be some flux in this plan, depending on LeMahieu’s health and the fact that Donaldson is also reportedly a player the Yankees are trying to unload in order to save some payroll space.
Yankees Sign Carlos Rodon To Six-Year Deal
December 21: The Yankees have officially announced the signing.
December 15: The best remaining free agent starter is headed to the Bronx. The Yankees are reportedly in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract with Carlos Rodón. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $22MM salary next season followed by successive $27MM salaries from 2024-28. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and runs through Rodón’s age-35 season.
New York pairs the addition with their record-setting deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a huge offseason. The guarantee ties that of Brandon Nimmo for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will finish with the second-largest guarantee among free agent pitchers, narrowly behind the five-year, $185MM pact Jacob deGrom inked with the Rangers.
It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander entered the professional ranks eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Owner of a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, he was regarded as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who’d quickly reach the big leagues. Rodón indeed found himself on Chicago’s south side by the middle of the 2015 campaign, and he posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings through the end of the following season.
Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was then sidetracked by injuries. Rodón lost a chunk of the 2017 campaign to biceps bursitis, then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery that September. He didn’t debut until June the following year, making 20 starts. Early the next season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow issue. He went back under the knife in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the remainder of that year, returning at the tail end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances.
The mounting injury troubles led the White Sox to decline to tender him a contract heading into 2021. Chicago circled back towards the end of the offseason, bringing him back on a $3MM free agent deal. That move was met with a fair amount of criticism, but it turned into one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure.
Rodón was brilliant in 2021, earning his first All-Star nod with a 2.31 ERA over 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked on his way to a Cy Young award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón only missed a couple weeks and continued to pitch well upon his return, although his velocity dropped towards season’s end. The southpaw concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA and a massive 34.6% strikeout percentage across 132 2/3 innings. He placed fifth in Cy Young balloting.
The end-of-year shoulder issue and velocity dip seemed to scare the Chicago front office, however. They made the eyebrow-raising decision not to issue Rodón a qualifying offer, allowing him to hit the open market without draft compensation attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants added him on a two-year, $44MM guarantee. The deal contained an opt-out clause after year one, conditional on Rodón reaching 110 innings pitched in 2022. It was an opportunity for the star hurler to bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be in the cards if he maintained his 2021 form over a full, healthy season.
Rodón did exactly that, doubling down with perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and tallying a personal-high 178 innings. Rodón worked to a sterling 2.88 ERA. He earned a second straight All-Star nod and was among the game’s best at missing bats. Rodón fanned 33.4% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Braves rookier Spencer Strider bested that strikeout percentage. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates.
Almost as importantly, Rodón’s arsenal showed no ill effects after his 2021 dip. His fastball averaged a strong 95.5 MPH, making him one of the game’s harder-throwing lefty pitchers. He generated high-end spin and whiff rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters swung through a massive 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón stifled batters from both sides of the plate; he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while hitters with the platoon advantage put together just a .207/.264/.319 mark.
A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the sport’s top pitchers. His career took a more winding road than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after topping the necessary innings threshold, and he quickly turned down a qualifying offer.
It now looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York watched Jameson Taillon depart but upgrades with the Rodón addition. He and Cole are co-aces, backed up by breakout hurler Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but they’re overqualified as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are on hand as depth options who could step in if any of the top five get injured.
Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, jointing deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of that trio, he always looked likely to secure the longest deal. The six-year term will be the longest for any pitcher this winter, although deGrom’s five-year contract and the stronger than expected market for mid-tier starters led to rumors Rodón’s camp was seeking a seven-year pact that’d push past $200MM. He falls well shy of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162MM commitment is still quite strong for a pitcher.
It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent pitcher since Cole and Stephen Strasburg pushed to nine and seven years, respectively, over the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140MM) and Yu Darvish ($120MM) are the only other open market hurlers to reach six years since the start of the 2016 campaign. At the start of this offseason, MLBTR forecasted Rodón for a five-year, $140MM pact.
The cost for New York goes beyond the salary they’ll owe, as the deal pushes them even further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already set to pay the competitive balance tax, and adding Rodón pushes them towards the top tier of penalization. The contract comes with a $27MM average annual value, bringing New York’s CBT figure within a rounding error of the $293MM mark, according to Roster Resource. That’s the cutoff for the fourth CBT tier and places them around $60MM north of the $233MM base threshold.
New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’ll be subject to heightened penalties as a repeat payor. The Yankees will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM in overages ($6MM), 42% on their next $20MM ($8.4MM), 75% on the next $20MM ($15MM) and 90% on every dollar spent above $293MM. Signing Rodón pushes them firmly to the top of the third threshold, essentially tacking on around $18MM in taxes. The $27MM salary will bring their raw payroll total around $277MM, which’ll easily be a franchise record.
Going past the third threshold will also push the Yankees first draft choice in 2024 down ten spots. Meanwhile, signing a player who’d turned down a qualifying offer will have a significant impact on their 2023 draft. New York is subject to the highest penalties as a team that paid the CBT this year. They’ll lose their second and fifth-highest selection in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allotment will drop by $1MM.
The Giants will receive compensation for Rodón’s departure. As a team that neither received revenue sharing payments nor paid the CBT this year, they’ll pick up a bonus selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of third round (typically around 75th overall) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had seemingly prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of their preferred shorter-term rotation additions, bringing aboard Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling on two-year guarantees.
With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent who’s likely to find a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly been covered at the top end, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski standing as some of the top options still available. Needless to say, none of that group has the kind of upside Rodón does. It’s a bold bet from the Yankees, one they hope adds an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they look to advance past the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162MM deal that contained a full no-trade clause. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the specific financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Poll: Who Will Sign Carlos Rodon?
Carlos Rodón is the top remaining starting pitcher in free agency and unsurprisingly has many suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers have been connected to him at various points throughout the offseason. However, many of those teams have since signed other pitchers, potentially taking them out of the running. Also, the latest report suggests that Rodón and his representatives are looking for a deal of seven years or longer with a guarantee of $200MM or more. That’s well beyond the five years and $140MM that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason and likely prices out some of those clubs. So, who will actually pull it off? Let’s take a look at the options.
Yankees
It is reportedly Rodón’s preference to make Yankee Stadium his home ballpark and the team is interested in him as well. That’s an excellent starting point but the fit gets more complicated from there. The Yanks would apparently prefer to limit their offers to the four- or five-year range, which is something that would have to be overcome in negotiations. It’s not surprising that the club has concerns about the long-term picture, since the future payrolls are already getting filled in. Aaron Judge is going to be making $40MM per season for the next nine years. Gerrit Cole still has six more years at $36MM per. Giancarlo Stanton has five more years between $25MM and $32MM, along with an option for 2028. Even if the club plans on turning that down at that time, it comes with a hefty $10MM buyout. DJ LeMahieu adds another $15MM per year for the next four seasons.
Even in the short term, there might be issues. There have been reports that the club would like to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, as crossing that line would lead to much higher taxation rates and the club’s top 2023 draft pick moving back 10 spots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $266MM, not too far from the $273MM third tier. Adding a salary near $30MM for Rodón would push them past that line and also past the top tier of $293MM.
From a baseball standpoint, adding another starter makes sense. The club’s rotation currently consists of Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They could fill in the final slot with Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt and be in fine shape, but both Severino and Montas missed significant time with shoulder injuries in 2022. One more arm would bump German and Schmidt into depth roles and provide extra cover for an injury absence, but will they go for a top-of-the-market option like Rodón?
Red Sox
The Red Sox also have some long-term contracts on the books, though at lesser terms than the Yankees. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are each under control for five more seasons, though their combined salaries are just barely over $40MM in most of those seasons. That makes them roughly equal to what the Yanks are paying Judge alone, never mind Cole or Stanton. In the short term, Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $192MM, meaning they could easily add a Rodón-sized salary and stay under the first luxury tax threshold of $233MM, if they so desire.
From an on-field perspective, it also makes sense given their rotation question marks. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Garrett Whitlock has done more bullpen work in his career so far, with only nine starts in the majors at this point. Brayan Bello just debuted in 2022 and made 11 starts of middling quality. Nick Pivetta stayed healthy in 2022 but he’s never posted an ERA better than 4.53. There’s plenty of room for upgrades in there.
However, the Sox just watched their franchise shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, ship off to San Diego. They apparently made a six-year, $160MM offer that was more than $100MM below the $280MM the Padres gave him. It was even below the $189MM MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason, before spending went wild and it was clear it would take much more than that. After such a half-hearted attempt to secure a beloved franchise icon, are they really going to pivot and put in a harder charge for a new face like Rodón?
Twins
The entire Minnesota offseason has seemed to revolve around their hopes of bringing Carlos Correa back. The club has generally been pretty quiet, apart from acquiring Kyle Farmer as a Correa safety net and signing Christian Vázquez to be their catcher. They reportedly offered Correa ten years and $285MM, but he instead went to the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. Minnesota’s offer was actually a higher average annual value, but it was a significantly lower overall guarantee.
The question now is what their backup plan is. They were willing to five Correa $28.5MM per season, but would they have the same willingness for someone like Rodón? They certainly have the long-term payroll space to do it, as Byron Buxton and Vázquez are the only two players signed beyond the upcoming campaign. Vázquez will get a modest $10MM salary through 2025 while Buxton is only guaranteed $15MM per season through 2028 with various incentives available. In the short-term, the club’s payroll is only at $107MM for 2023, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s Opening Day figure of $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
From a baseball perspective, the club has many rotation options and doesn’t strictly need an upgrade. However, Rodón would easily jump to the top of the chart and could allow the club to trade someone else. Currently, their rotation mix consists of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and others. Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and could be back later in the season. Gray and Maeda have reportedly drawn trade interest, which could allow the club to make a splash on Rodón and then use their starters to upgrade elsewhere. The largest contract in franchise history is the $184MM extension they gave to Joe Mauer back in 2010. They were willing to smash that record for Correa but what about Rodón?
Giants
The Giants have been quite aggressive this winter, already handing out a mega deal for Correa as well as smaller but still significant deals for Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those latter two deals bolstered their rotation, with Manaea and Stripling now joining Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Jakob Junis as rotation options. That already seems like too many starters, though the club is apparently still in on Rodón.
From a long-term payroll point of view, they could certainly do it. Haniger and Correa are the only contracts on the books by 2025 and Correa the only one beyond that. In the short term, Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s, though that was back in 2018. The CBT figure would tiptoe over the $233MM luxury tax line by adding a Rodón-sized deal, but they could pivot and trade one of their other starters to get back under. Wood is making $12.5MM in 2023 before reaching free agency, Cobb $9MM plus an option for 2024, DeSclafani $12MM in each of the next two seasons. Those three would all surely have some degree of trade value, given the high prices for free agent starters this winter. The club is also looking for outfield and catching help, but maybe a Rodón signing could eventually allow them to plug those holes via trade.
Cardinals
Though the Cardinals have been connected to Rodón, it was reported yesterday that they are unlikely to meet his asking price. That’s not exactly shocking as the largest contract in club history is the five-year, $130MM Paul Goldschmidt extension. The most they’ve ever given a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016. To suddenly jump up to $200MM would be quite a surprise. Their payroll for 2023 is also at $164MM, per Roster Resource, which is beyond last year’s figure and a match with their franchise high, per Cot’s. They may be willing to increase payroll this year, but going $30MM beyond their previous record would be a surprise.
The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year. Similar to the Twins and Giants, they could sign Rodón and then flip one of their current pitchers, but the financial situation is probably an obstacle.
Rangers
The Rangers were connected to Rodón as far back as October. At the time, it made perfect sense since the club’s rotation going into the winter consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch of crash test dummies. Since then, however, they have re-signed Martín Pérez, traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed free agents Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. That group, along with Gray and Dane Dunning, puts the club’s rotation in solid shape, certainly much better than 2022. The club reportedly met with Rodón after the deGrom signing, though that was shortly before the Heaney deal was announced.
The club could certainly sign Rodón and bump Odorizzi into a sixth starter/swingman role until someone gets hurt. However, the club’s CBT figure is currently $204MM, per Roster Resource. Adding Rodón would get them near or above the luxury tax threshold of $233MM. In terms of pure payroll, the club’s current $181MM figure is already more than $15MM beyond their previous franchise record, per Cot’s. Would they be willing to add another $30MM on top of that, when they are still looking for outfield upgrades as well?
Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were connected to Rodón in a limited way, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. That signing and the club’s other moves have shot the payroll up to record heights and put them into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource puts their CBT figure just barely over the $233MM line. The $209MM payroll is well beyond last year’s $171MM, their previous high, per Cot’s.
The club’s current rotation would consist of Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and José Berríos, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White options for the back end. They are reportedly still open for upgrades, though adding a monster deal for Rodón seems unlikely when they are already so far into uncharted territory in terms of the finances. It’s much more likely they search for a more modest upgrade, as they were connected to Johnny Cueto yesterday.
Mets
The Mets reportedly met with Rodón back in late November, but they have since signed Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Those three, along with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, give the club a full rotation. The Mets are reportedly even thinking about trading Carrasco to open the final rotation slot for someone like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.
It would be foolish to completely rule the Mets out on anyone at this point, given that there doesn’t seem to be any limit to their spending. The payroll is already in record territory, with Roster Resource putting them down for $336MM and a CBT figure of $350MM. They are set to be second-time payors and are now paying a 90% tax on all spending since they are way beyond the top CBT line of $293MM. That means signing Rodón to a contract around $30MM per year would actually lead to the club paying about $60MM.
They have larger needs in the bullpen so spending huge money on Rodón doesn’t seem especially likely. However, they were just connected to Correa before he signed with the Giants, so maybe there’s still some big cash left on the pile.
Orioles
The Orioles are the best fit for Rodón in terms of long-term payroll. They have literally no one guaranteed any money for 2024. Of course, many of their players will earn arbitration salaries for that season, but they are committed to nothing. For 2023, Roster Resource pegs their payroll at a meager $52MM, less than what the Mets are set to pay in taxes alone.
The rotation could surely use an extra arm, as it currently consists of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Kyle Bradish, Mike Baumann and DL Hall. Those guys all have limited track records and are still works in progress, apart from Gibson who was brought in as a veteran stabilizer. Prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely join the group at some point, as will John Means, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April. But there’s plenty of room for upgrades.
The main argument against a Rodón signing is the track record of the O’s under general manager Mike Elias. The club has been aggressively rebuilding and avoiding long-term commitments. The club’s last free agent signing longer than one-year was for Alex Cobb back in 2018, prior to the hire of Elias. It’s much more likely that they target a lower tier of free agency, in line with their Gibson signing and their reported interest in Michael Wacha.
Dodgers
The Dodgers were connected to Rodón back in November, but they have since agreed to terms with Noah Syndergaard. He slots into a rotation that also features Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, with prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove around as depth. There are injury concerns in there, as Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Syndergaard was healthy in 2022 but it was his first full season back from Tommy John and his velocity didn’t fully return.
It’s not impossible to think that they would add another starter, but they generally prefer short-term deals. They signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year deals last offseason and have done the same now with Syndergaard. The last time they signed a pitcher to a deal longer than three years was Brandon McCarthy‘s four-year deal going into 2015. There have also been reports that they would like to reset their luxury tax status this year so that they can be a “first-time” payor for 2024. Roster Resource has their CBT number at $201MM. That’s well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold, but Trevor Bauer is appealing his suspension at the moment. If he gets it overturned, that puts over $30MM back onto that number, taking up the space that they could theoretically use on Rodón. A decision on that is expected in the next month or so. Until they get clarity on that, they might avoid huge commitments.
Mystery Team
Perhaps some team that hasn’t been connected to Rodón in rumors will swoop in and surprise us all. The Rays are never big spenders but were apparently willing to consider splurging on Freddie Freeman last year and Brandon Nimmo this year. The Mariners have been surprisingly quiet this winter and could be open to trading Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Cubs have signed Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger this winter but haven’t yet made the big splash many expected. They’ve been often connected to the shortstops and could still go after Dansby Swanson but the rotation has plenty of question marks. The Padres have already spent a bunch but apparently just missed on Bassitt. Do they have one more surprise up their sleeve?
Which of these paths makes the most sense to you? Have your say in the poll below!
Who Will Sign Carlos Rodón?
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Yankees 42% (6,291)
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Mystery Team 15% (2,176)
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Giants 9% (1,365)
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Twins 5% (819)
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Orioles 5% (801)
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Red Sox 5% (754)
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Rangers 4% (643)
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Cardinals 4% (640)
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Dodgers 4% (589)
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Mets 3% (431)
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Blue Jays 3% (383)
Total votes: 14,892
(poll link for app users)
Cardinals “Unlikely” To Meet Asking Price For Carlos Rodón
The Cardinals are one of the many teams to have been connected to free agent lefty Carlos Rodón. However, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that it’s “unlikely the Cardinals would shell out the years and money” that Rodón is seeking.
The fact that the Cards have been priced out of Rodón’s market isn’t exactly shocking. The latest report on his asking price indicates that he’s looking for a guarantee over $200MM on a deal of seven years or longer. That’s extremely rarefied air for a pitcher, with only a handful ever reaching either that length or that kind of guarantee or both.
The Cardinals have never given out that kind of money to any player, a pitcher or otherwise. They’ve never really come close, in fact. The largest contract in franchise history is the five-year, $130MM extension they gave to Paul Goldschmidt in March of 2019. The largest guarantee they’ve given a free agent is the $120MM they gave to Matt Holliday in 2010. The largest contract they’ve given a pitcher was the $97.5MM extension given to Adam Wainwright in March of 2013, whereas the largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016.
A deal in the $200MM range for Rodón would dwarf any of those deals, meaning that the Cardinals have to set an aggressive new standard to get it done, even in a vacuum. Outside of the vacuum, there are other factors that also make it unlikely. The highest Opening Day payroll in club history is $164MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already effectively even with that record, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. The club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that the club will increase payroll this season, but meeting Rodón’s asking price would mean going about $30MM beyond previous levels in 2023 while also adding significant long-term commitments. Between Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, the Cards already have over $40MM on the books for 2026 and over $30MM for 2027. Giving Rodón what he’s looking for would come close to doubling those figures and have the club committing a huge chunk of their payroll to three players who will each be in their mid-30s by then.
The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year.
It’s always possible that Rodón’s asking price will come down if he fails to find a deal that he likes. As mentioned, it’s quite rare for pitchers to crack $200MM. Only six pitchers have ever gone above that line: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. Rodón has been quite good over the past two seasons but doesn’t have the track record to match up with those guys in their respective primes. Injuries have limited him to 847 1/3 innings so far in his career and he only just cracked 170 for a single season for the first time in 2022. Each of those other guys had multiple seasons of over 200 innings and well over 1,000 total innings. Starting pitcher usage has gone down in recent years but it’s still a significant difference.
There are many teams still interested, such as the Yankees, Twins, Giants and others. However, no one has met his asking price just yet. If it drops, perhaps the Cardinals will reconsider their pursuit, but it doesn’t seem to be the most probable course of events at the moment.
Yankees Interested In Nathan Eovaldi
The top remaining free agent pitcher, Carlos Rodón, reportedly prefers the Yankees as his future club. They are interested in him as well, but the problem is that Rodón is seeking a deal of seven years or more at a significant salary while the club would prefer to keep it down to four or five years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they will try to find a compromise but that the Yanks will also be considering Nathan Eovaldi as a backup plan.
Starting pitchers have been flying off the board in recent weeks, leaving Eovaldi as one of the best ones still out there. Over the past few seasons, Eovaldi has oscillated between being a very effective hurler and extended injury absences. After establishing himself in the majors with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees, he required Tommy John surgery late in 2016, wiping out the remainder of that season and the following one.
The Rays signed him for that 2017 season he was going to miss, with a $2MM option for 2018 that they eventually triggered. Up until that time, he had shown a powerful arm but without the strong results to match. He had a 4.21 ERA at that point in his career with a 17% strikeout rate. But 2018 proved to be a huge pivot point for him. He tossed 111 innings on the year with a 3.81 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate. That included a midseason trade to the Red Sox, with Eovaldi going on to toss 22 1/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.61 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate, helping the club win the World Series.
Those postseason heroics resulted in him returning to the Sox on a four-year, $68MM deal. Over the course of that contract, he’s continued to produce strong results but also deal with injuries. In 2019, he missed significant time due surgery to clean up loose bodies in his elbow. He was only able to log 67 2/3 innings that season with a 5.99 ERA. He bounced back in the shortened 2020 campaign, making nine starts with a 3.72 ERA, though he did miss time due to a calf strain.
He stayed healthy in 2021 and made 32 starts, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. In 2022, injuries caught him again, as he went to the IL twice, once for back inflammation and once for shoulder inflammation. He still made 20 starts on the year with a 3.87 ERA and 22.4% strikeout rate, strong results but a concerning step back that came with diminished velocity. He averaged around 97 MPH in the first three years of his Boston deal but dipped to 95.7 MPH in 2022.
Despite that injury track record and Eovaldi’s rejection of a qualifying offer, MLBTR still predicted he would land a solid two-year contract worth $34MM, or $17MM per season. The free agent market has generally been quite strong this offseason, with many players outpacing their projections. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Eovaldi, who turns 33 in February, push for a third year or a higher average annual salary. Outside of him and Rodón, some of the best remaining starters on the open market are Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly and others. Those are still some quality arms but the options for a true impact upgrade for the rotation of a competitive team are dwindling.
For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need a starter, given that their rotation is in good shape. Ace Gerrit Cole should be followed by Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas, with one spot available for either Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt. Adding another pitcher like Rodón or Eovaldi would bump Germán and Schmidt down the chart while also providing some cover in case Severino or Montas struggle to stay healthy like they did in 2022.
The payroll might be an issue, however, as it’s been suggested that the club would prefer to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, which is $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would increase and the club would also see its top 2023 draft pick moved back ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll at $250MM with a CBT figure of $266MM. A mega deal for Rodón or even a more modest one for Eovaldi would send the club well beyond that third tier and could even push them close to the $293MM top tier. With other needs around the roster, including left field and the bullpen, whether the Yanks actually have an appetite for a rotation splurge remains to be seen.
Eovaldi has been connected to the Blue Jays this offseason, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. There’s also been rumors of a return to Boston though the latest reporting indicated he wasn’t a top priority for the club.
Latest On Carlos Rodon’s Market
10:42pm: The Yankees have indeed put forth an offer to Rodon, Heyman writes. There’s apparently still a fair bit of work to do in order to get a deal done, as Heyman indicates there’s a notable gap between New York’s proposal and Rodon’s asking price.
2:55pm: Carlos Rodon is the clear top pitcher remaining on the open market, and despite a lofty asking price reportedly in the $200MM neighborhood, multiple clubs remain in pursuit of the left-hander. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Yankees are prepping a formal offer for Rodon, and Brendan Kuty of NJ.com now tweets that the Yankees appear to be Rodon’s preferred landing spot. However, Kuty adds that both the Twins and the Cardinals both remain “seriously in play” for the southpaw as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that even after agreeing to identical two-year, $25MM deals with both Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this week, the Giants are still involved in Rodon’s market.
The Twins’ interest in Rodon is perhaps contingent on the looming decision of Carlos Correa who, like Rodon, is represented by the Boras Corporation. Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests that Correa remains the Twins’ top priority, though he adds that the team nonetheless made a pitch to Rodon earlier in the month (Twitter thread). Given that the Giants are viewed as Minnesota’s primary competition for Correa, it’s fair to wonder whether both clubs might be prioritizing Correa with the intent of pivoting to Rodon should they be spurned by Correa. That both players have the same agent makes concurrent negotiations a smoother process.
After agreeing to a three-year deal with free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday, Minnesota projects to about $107MM in total commitments for the upcoming season. That’s well shy of the more than $140MM they spent on last year’s Opening Day roster, but not so far south of the mark that it becomes easy to envision a scenario in which both Correa and Rodon sign on to call Target Field home. The Twins have drawn interest in right fielder Max Kepler this winter, but even in the event of a Kepler deal coming together, a Correa/Rodon combo would push Minnesota well past $150MM in total payroll for the first time in franchise history and would likely lock them into $75-80MM worth of annual commitments to the trio of Correa, Rodon and Byron Buxton.
The Giants, meanwhile, are roughly $43MM from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll even after their deals with Stripling and Manaea. Similarly, though, it’s difficult to see both players landing in San Francisco. The Giants are already a bit north of $180MM in terms of luxury obligations, and that pairing would likely push them into tax territory for the first time. That said, the Giants have topped $200MM in payroll before, and the only player currently signed beyond the 2024 season is Mitch Haniger, who’s signed through 2025. The Giants have been averse to long-term contracts under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though they made hefty bids for both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper under his watch.
As for the Cardinals, they were linked to Rodon this past weekend, and Kuty paints them as a fairly prominent player in the bidding. The Cards would make for something of a surprise bidder, having already spent $87.5MM to bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis on a five-year contract. Signing Rodon would likely mean doling out the largest commitment in franchise history and pushing payroll to height never before seen in St. Louis. The Cardinals’ current record for Opening Day payroll is a bit more north of $163MM, in 2021, but they’re already at that rough level right now Rodon could well take them north of $190MM.
Circling back to the Yankees, they at one point reportedly hoped to limit any Rodon deals to four or five years in length, though that doesn’t seem likely to get them in the ballpark. With Judge and Cole both locked into a combined $76MM in annual commitments through the 2028 season (2029 in Judge’s case), adding Rodon to the mix would require budgeting more than $100MM annually for a trio of players for at least the next six years. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through 2027, as well, further complicating the long-term scenario for Rodon.
At present, Roster Resource projects a $266MM luxury-tax ledger for the Yankees. They’re already set to pay the tax for a second straight season, so they’ll owe $6MM on the first $20MM by which they cross the $233MM threshold and $8.5MM on the next $20MM. Once they reach $273MM in luxury obligations, they’ll be taxed at a rate of 75%, and they’d be taxed at 90% on any dollars beyond the $293MM mark.
Speculatively penciling in an even $30MM AAV (which could, of course, be off by a few million dollars one way or another), the Yankees would jump from their currently projected $11.74MM of penalties all the way up to about $32.65MM in penalties. In other words, they’d pay an approximate $21MM in taxes on top of Rodon’s actual salary for the 2023 season. Passing the luxury threshold by more than $40MM would also drop the Yankees’ top pick in the 2023 draft by 10 places, and any Rodon deal would make it quite difficult to drop under the tax line (and avoid even steeper tax rates as a third-time offender) in 2024.
Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon
The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.
Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.
That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.
Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.
The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.
Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.
New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.