Quick Hits: Astros, Santana, Pagan, Muncy, Miller
The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule. However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain. Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.
Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia‘s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery. The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut. Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.
More on other injury situations that arose from today’s games…
- Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates‘ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness. It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside. Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.
- Twins reliever Emilio Pagan faced only one batter in today’s 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays before departing due to a left hip flexor strain. Both Pagan and manager Rocco Baldelli expressed hope that an IL stint wasn’t necessary, with Pagan telling the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda and other reporters that “hopefully we caught it early enough, that I’m good to go in a day or two. I think I’ll be ready to go tomorrow if need be.”
- Max Muncy left today’s game with a cramp in his left hamstring, and the Dodgers infielder told MLB.com and other media that he has been dealing with cramps throughout the weekend. Muncy will undergo an MRI to further examine the issue, but for now, he is day to day. Between a scorching-hot April and then a big slump for much of May, Muncy is still hitting .208/.340/.530 over 203 plate appearances this season, and he belted his 17th home run before his early exit today.
- X-rays were negative on Owen Miller‘s right forearm, after the Brewers infielder was removed as a precautionary measure after being hit by a pitch in today’s game. Manager Craig Counsell told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters that Miller is day to day, and could be back for the team’s next game on Tuesday (Monday is an off-day for the Brew Crew). Miller’s hot bat has earned him more playing time, and after collecting two more hits today, Miller is slashing .330/.371/.513 over 124 PA.
NL Notes: Pirates, Santana, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Kahnle
The Pirates’ signing of Carlos Santana was in part driven by the team’s belief that next year’s restriction on infield shifts will help to boost the veteran switch-hitter’s production, general manager Ben Cherington told reporters after finalizing the deal this week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Beyond that, Santana’s reputation as a leader and mentor for younger players appealed to the club, as did a strong batted-ball profile that featured quality marks in metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and more.
At one year and $6.725MM, the Santana signing was somewhat remarkably the largest free-agent commitment given out by Cherington since he was hired to guide the Pirates’ latest rebuilding effort back in 2019. Cherington stressed there are other needs to address and that the Pirates, currently projected by Roster Resource to carry just a $54MM payroll, are hopeful of completing some additional deals.
A few more items out of the National League…
- The Reds inked local product Luke Maile to a one-year contract, setting the stage for him to serve as Tyler Stephenson’s backup. However, general manager Nick Krall suggested after signing Maile the team isn’t closed off to the possibility of adding a third catcher to the big league roster (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “There is a chance,” Krall noted, pointing out that the addition of the universal designated hitter gives teams the flexibility to more easily work with three backstops. The Reds were reportedly in touch with Tucker Barnhart about a potential reunion before signing Maile, though there’s no indication they’re strongly pursuing him after coming to terms with Maile. Still, Stephenson missed significant time in 2022 with a broken thumb, a concussion and a broken collarbone, and he also has 147 innings of big league experience at first base. There’s some sense to bringing in another catcher — particularly if it’s someone who can handle multiple spots on the diamond to give the Reds some more flexibility.
- The Phillies were dealt a tough blow last week with the revelation Bryce Harper required a full Tommy John procedure. The Phils announced Harper was expected to return as a bat-only option by the All-Star Break while playing the outfield again at some point in the second half. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility of an earlier return this week (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic) but suggested he didn’t want to project any kind of more optimistic timeline. “In my own mind, I’m looking at the All-Star break. Anything that’s before that is great,” Dombrowski said. The veteran executive downplayed the need for the Phils to add an outfielder in response to the surgery, pointing out that any pickup would lose his path to everyday playing time once Harper returned. The DH-only role would force Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly to flank center fielder Brandon Marsh, with righty-hitting Matt Vierling on hand as the fourth outfielder. Dombrowski suggested that while the Phils will be “open-minded” to the possibility of adding on the grass, “it’s not a priority for us.“
- Adding to the bullpen is certainly a key objective for the Mets, who saw each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May hit free agency. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that New York is one of several teams to have looked into Tommy Kahnle, although he cautions it’s presently unclear how interested the Mets are in the free agent right-hander. Kahnle is an interesting upside play. He lost almost all of 2020-21 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and renewed arm inflammation cost him almost four months with the Dodgers this past season. Kahnle allowed only four runs in 12 2/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch, though, striking out 14 against three walks. The 33-year-old racked up swinging strikes at a massive 17.2% clip while leaning on his stellar changeup more than three-quarters of the time. Kahnle posted a 3.67 ERA with an elite 35.5% strikeout rate over 72 appearances with the Yankees in 2019, his most recent full season.
Pirates To Sign Carlos Santana
November 29: The Pirates have officially announced the deal.
November 25: The Pirates have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran first-baseman Carlos Santana pending a physical, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’ll pay the Octagon client $6.725MM, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’s the largest guarantee the Pirates have given to a free agent since inking Daniel Hudson to a two-year, $11MM deal before the 2017 season.
It’s an intriguing move for the Pirates as they look to slowly work their way back to contention after a lengthy rebuild. Santana is the third first-base/DH option they’ve acquired this off-season, following their trade for Ji-Man Choi and claim of Lewin Diaz.
Santana, 36, spent last year with the Royals and Mariners, slashing a joint .202/.316/.376 with 19 home runs over 506 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 102, a couple of ticks above league average. While the numbers certainly don’t leap off the page, Santana did post the lowest BABIP of his career and hasn’t seen much shift in his walk or strikeout rates. Santana could also be one of the biggest benefactors of the shift restrictions that’ll come into play next season, as no one faced a shift more often than he did (98.3% of the time).
It’ll be the fifth major league team Santana has suited up for. He debuted for Cleveland back in 2010, the first of eight seasons he’d initially spend with the franchise. Santana regularly posted 20+ home run totals, combining power with strong on-base skills. His best year was 2013, when Santana finished 15th in AL MVP voting on the back of .268/.377/.455 line.
Santana inked a three-year, $60MM deal with the Phillies prior to the 2018 season, but after just a year Cleveland re-acquired him via a ten-day stint in Seattle. His return to Cleveland proved successful, as Santana hit 34 home runs, won a Silver Slugger and earned his first trip to the All Star game.
That was his last dominant campaign though, and his final year in Cleveland in 2020, and the following seasons in Kansas City and Seattle have brought about wRC+ marks of 99, 82 and 102. While his average has taken a huge dip in recent years, he’s continued to walk at a strong rate and post solid power numbers. His HardHit% and exit velocity remain in line with his peak numbers, so there certainly seems to be enough to suggest Santana could experience a bit of a bounce back in 2023.
That’s certainly what the Bucs will be hoping for, but it won’t take much for them to improve their first-base output in 2023. Pittsburgh first-basemen combined for -3.0 fWAR in 2022, so the addition of Choi and Santana addresses that. Santana was worth three Outs Above Average at first in 2022, with Choi worth two and the pair will likely split time there and at DH in 2023. Choi’s struggles against left-handed pitching could mean he sits in those matchups while Santana mans first and Pittsburgh gives another hitter a game at DH.
Beyond his production at the plate, Santana will be a valuable veteran presence in a young clubhouse. The Pirates have brought through a number of prospects they hope will form the foundation of their next contending team in recent years, including Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras. There’s plenty of young talent there with more expected to crack the big leagues in 2023, so having a veteran mentor in Santana around can only help the Bucs’ young core.
The $6.725MM guarantee is modest by MLB standards, but significant for Pittsburgh. It makes Santana the third highest paid Pirate for 2023, behind Hayes and Bryan Reynolds, and takes their projected 2023 payroll to $54MM, per RosterResource. That falls about $5MM shy of their 2022 mark and it’ll be interesting to see where the final figure lands for next season. A veteran starter on a similar deal to Jose Quintana‘s last season seems likely, while the team could do with a low-cost catcher to bridge the gap until top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are ready to debut.
Photo credit: USA Today Sports.
Mariners Notes: Raleigh, Haniger, Santana, Frazier, Flexen
After 18 tense innings, the Seattle Mariners finally fell to the Houston Astros yesterday in the American League Division Series, having returned to playoff baseball for the first time since the 2001 season. The Mariners, who had been projected by ESPN to finish the 2022 season a hair over .500 with an 82-80 record, showed that 2021 was no fluke, following up their 90-win 2021 campaign by winning another 90 games en route to a Wild Card berth.
Following the game, backstop Cal Raleigh announced to reports that he had been playing with a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Raleigh had been playing through the thumb injury since early September, but he had not revealed the extent of the injury prior to Saturday’s game. Raleigh announced to reporters that he would see a specialist in the upcoming days to determine a course of action for recovery, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
The second-year catcher had followed up his rookie campaign with a strong .211/.284/.489 slash line in 2022, hitting 27 home runs in 370 at-bats and finishing the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ among all catchers (121), nestled between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. An integral cog to the Mariners’ offense, Raleigh was one of four players (minimum 350 at-bats) that had an OPS above .700. Raleigh followed up his impressing regular season with a strong Wild Card showing against the Blue Jays, going 4-for-8 with a homer and a double, but was quieted by the Astros’ pitching, collecting only 1 hit in 14 at-bats while striking out 5 times.
In the wake of yesterday’s defeat, the Mariners’ front office will turn their heads toward the 2023 season and free agency. Long-time Mariner Mitch Haniger, trade-deadline addition Carlos Santana, and Adam Frazier will all be free agents following the World Series.
Haniger entered the 2022 season looking to follow up on his successful 2021 campaign, .253/.318/.486 in 157 games, and reestablish himself as an everyday player prior to entering free agency after missing part of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season with various surgeries. The outfielder and Mariners avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.75MM contract in early April.
However, Haniger would only make appearances in nine games before suffering a right high ankle sprain that kept him on the injured list from late April to early August. Upon his return, Haniger hit a solid .254/.322/.418 in the final 48 games of the regular season (100 at-bats).
The Mariners’ decision regarding Haniger, who turns 32 in December, will be quite complicated. The Mariners boast a crowded outfield headlined by AL Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez, with former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Taylor Trammell. Nevertheless, Lewis has struggled to produce at a high level since suffering a right meniscus tear in 2021, and Kelenic and Trammell have both struggled to adjust to Major League pitching.
For his part, Haniger has indicated that he would prefer to remain in Seattle. Following up by saying that he hopes “to be back in a Mariners uniform for sure,” per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.
Santana, who joined the Mariners from the Royals at the trade deadline, continued to struggle in Seattle, slashing a combined .202/.316/.376 across 131 games. The 36-year-old split his time between DH and first base, accruing 3 Outs Above Average for his work at first. It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt for a one-player ‘old school’ approach at the DH position, or if they will cycle players through the role during the season.
Frazier followed up his All-Star 2021 campaign with a weaker .238/.301/.311 slash line across 156 games in the 2022 season. The veteran, who was dealt to the Padres during the 2021 season, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier prior to the start of the 2022 season. Moore, who was previously mentioned as outfield depth, has also manned all four infield positions and could see an increase in infield work if Frazier is not resigned.
Transitioning to the bump, with five quality starters under contract, starter-turned-reliever Chris Flexen‘s position with the Mariners will be an interesting story to watch unfold. Flexen began the 2022 season as a starter, pitching to a solid 4.02 ERA in 121 innings before being bumped to the bullpen where he worked to a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.
It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt to keep Flexen in the bullpen, utilize a 6-man rotation, or potentially trade Flexen to improve their offense.
As previously mentioned the Mariners only had 4 players finish with an OPS north of .700 (minimum 350 at-bats). As a team, the Mariners finished with the third-lowest batting average (.230), an average on-base percentage (.315), and an average slugging percentage (.390).
Additionally, if they opt to trade Flexen for offense, the Mariners boast three prospects No. 2 Emerson Hancock, No. 5 Bryce Miller, and No. 7 Taylor Dollard, who have all had strong seasons at Double-A Arkansas.
AL Notes: Mariners, Athletics, Yankees
The Mariners have reinstated Carlos Santana from the restricted list, the team announced. In a corresponding roster move, Kevin Padlo was optioned to Triple-A. It’s a good time to return to the Mariners, who are amid a 20-3 run, including an active 12-game winning streak. Santana has appeared in 15 games for the Mariners since being acquired from the Royals, slashing a robust .245/.383/.449 in that time. Elsewhere around the junior circuit…
- Frankie Montas intends to return to the A’s rotation after the All-Star break, per MLB.com. The right-hander will throw a bullpen on Saturday in the hopes of being ready to make his first start since July 3rd. Montas knows that the sooner he gets back on the hill, the sooner he continues to showcase for a potential trade. “As much as I don’t want to think about it, I don’t know, I think it’s a big possibility that I still get traded,” Montas said, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Vinny Nittoli plans to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). The 31-year-old right-hander has just one career appearance in the Majors. That appearance came last season with the Mariners, who drafted him in the 25th round of the 2014 draft. This season he has logged 36 2/3 innings in Triple-A with a 3.44 ERA for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Royals Trade Carlos Santana To Mariners, Promote Vinnie Pasquantino
The Mariners have acquired first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana and cash from the Royals in exchange for right-handers Wyatt Mills and William Fleming, per a team announcement. The trade paves the road for the Royals to take an overdue look at top prospect Vinnie Pasquantino, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Omaha, according to the team. Right-hander Ronald Bolanos has been designated for assignment in order to open a spot on Kansas City’s 40-man roster.
Monday’s trade closes the book on a generally underwhelming Kansas City tenure for Santana, who inked a two-year, $17.5MM contract in advance of the 2021 season but has yet to round into the form that made him such a valuable contributor for years in Cleveland. The switch-hitting 36-year-old tallied 871 plate appearances with the Royals and posted just a .215/.326/.341 batting line — about 12% worse than league-average after weighting for park and league, by measure of wRC+.
Santana managed to turn things around in recent weeks, however, and has shown enough this month for the Mariners to take a low-cost look now that they suddenly find themselves in need of a first baseman. Ty France, Seattle’s most consistent hitter this season, recently landed on the injured list and figures to be out for a good bit longer than that 10-day minimum, given the diagnosis of a Grade 2 flexor strain. Santana shouldn’t be expected to fully replace France’s brilliant .316/.390/.476 batting line, but he’s managed a .298/.405/.468 output himself over his past 27 games and 111 plate appearances.
In all likelihood, the Royals are paying the vast majority of what remains on Santana’s contract. He’s still owed the balance of this year’s $10.5MM salary (about $5.8MM), and that number will increase based on plate appearances. Santana, who already has 212 plate appearances this season, will earn an additional $75K for every 25th plate appearance from 300 to 525.
It’s not the first time the Mariners have acquired Santana, though whenever he takes the field in a Mariners jersey, it’ll be his first actual game with the team. Seattle actually acquired Santana alongside J.P. Crawford in the deal that sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio and James Pazos to the Phillies back in Dec. 2018. However, not two weeks later, Santana was traded to Cleveland in the three-team swap that brought Edwin Encarnacion to Seattle. Encarnacion spent a half season slugging as the Mariners’ designated hitter before being flipped to the Yankees for righty Juan Then.
This time around, it’ll be a pair of right-handers going to Kansas City in exchange for the final three-plus months of control over Santana. Of the two righties in question, only Mills has big league experience thus far. The 27-year-old has pitched a total of 21 1/3 frames over the past two seasons but struggled to a 7.59 ERA with worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates in that time (17.3% and 10.2%, respectively).
Mills, the No. 93 overall pick in 2017, has more interesting but also inconsistent numbers in the upper minors. The sidearming righty fanned a whopping 44.7% of his opponents through 28 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball last year, for instance, but that rate has been halved so far in 2022 over the course of 19 2/3 innings. There’s no velocity change between his ’21 and ’22 campaigns, though Mills did throw more fastballs at the expense of some slider usage during this year’s small sample of 8 2/3 big league innings. The 6’4″ righty has never ranked as one of the Mariners’ very best prospects, but Baseball America has listed him among Seattle’s top 25 farmhands dating back to the time he was drafted.
Fleming, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old righty whom the Mariners selected in the 11th round just one year ago. He generally hasn’t been considered among the Mariners’ best prospects either — though FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen did tab him 28th earlier this year — and has posted fairly pedestrian numbers in Class-A Modesto despite being a former college arm who’s older than his average opponent at that level. So far, Fleming has tossed 67 2/3 innings over 14 starts and logged a 4.92 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate.
For the Royals, the arms received in exchange for Santana are secondary when it comes to this trade. The greater purpose of the swap was to at last open playing time for the 6’4″, 245-pound Pasquantino, who has mashed his way into top prospect status by dominating at every minor league stop, including Triple-A this season. So far, Pasquantino has taken 296 turns at the plate for the Storm Chasers and posted a huge .280/.372/.576 batting line with 18 home runs, 16 doubles two triples and more walks (37) than strikeouts (36).
Given his size and lack of speed, Pasquantino is locked into a first base-only (or designated hitter) profile, but there’s every indication so far that his bat will play in the Majors. Scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs indicate that he’s improved enough with the glove to be average or slightly better, and Pasquantino has never posted an OBP lower than .371 or a slugging percentage lower than .560 at any minor league level. And, given the dearth of strikeouts in his game, he’s been able to maintain a .293 average throughout his minor league tenure to date.
Even without much defensive value to prop up his value, Pasquantino ranks as the game’s No. 57 prospect over at Baseball America. He checks in 95th at FanGraphs and 98th at MLB.com, with all three scouting reports praising his plus (or better) hit tool and above-average power.
The organizational hope is that between Pasquantino and fellow slugger Nick Pratto — also a first base-only, top-100 prospect — they’ll have their first base and DH slots covered for years to come. Pasquantino’s promotion to the Majors is late enough that he should avoid Super Two status, and he’ll be controllable for at least six full seasons beyond the current campaign.
As for the 25-year-old Bolanos, he’s seen action with Kansas City in each of the past three seasons but has posted pedestrian numbers on the whole. Once a notable Padres signing out of Cuba, he was traded to the Royals alongside Franchy Cordero in the 2020 trade that sent Tim Hill to San Diego. He’s since combined for 28 1/3 innings of 4.76 ERA ball with a lackluster 24-to-17 K/BB ratio.
Bolanos does have a respectable 4.42 ERA in 18 1/3 innings this year, but his average fastball of 93.6 mph is down about two miles per hour from its peak and that ERA comes in spite of an even number of walks to strikeouts. Add in that he’s limped to a 5.49 ERA in 19 2/3 Triple-A frames this season, and it was enough for the Royals to decide they’re willing to move on. Of course, the DFA doesn’t necessarily spell the end of his time in the organization. Kansas City will have a week to trade Bolanos if there’s interest, but the Royals can also attempt to pass him through outright waivers at some point in the next week. If he goes unclaimed, he’d remain with the organization but no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.
16 Impending Free Agents Off To Slow Starts At The Plate
The Padres cut ties with Robinson Cano this morning, just as the Mets did before them. It was a tougher decision for the Mets, given the financial obligation they have toward Cano through the 2023 season. However, his lack of production and the presence of younger, better options forced the hand of both parties.
We’re coming up on a third of the way through the 2022 season, and it’ll become increasingly difficult for teams with struggling veterans in the Cano mold to continue trotting them out there. That’s especially true of players who are impending free agents. While fans can (and do) disagree with the thinking, a player like Aaron Hicks, whom the Yankees owe $30.5MM from 2023-25, will get a longer leash than an impending free agent due to that multi-year commitment. So while there are plenty of struggling veterans on long-term deals, those with the thinnest grasp on their current roster spots are those who’ll be off the books at season’s end anyhow.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some names to watch and, when applicable, some of the names behind them who could aid in pushing them out the door (all stats entering Thursday’s play):
Carlos Santana, Royals: I’m not sure anyone other than the Royals’ front office understands the thinking behind continuing to trot Santana out to the field at this point. The 36-year-old is hitting .161/.293/.250 through 147 plate appearances, and it’s not as though that enormous slump is an entirely new development. Santana hit just .214/.319/.342 while playing in 158 of 162 games for the Royals last year and .199/.340/.350 in Cleveland during the shortened 2020 season.
Santana’s very presence on the Royals is due to the team’s effort to return to win-now mode after a rebuild focused on drafting college arms. He signed a two-year, $17.5MM contract heading into the 2021 season but hasn’t been able to bounce back to the form that long made him one of the game’s biggest on-base threats and most underrated offensive performers.
Signing Santana might’ve been a “win-now” move, but it’s hard to argue that continuing to run him out there is in the Royals’ best interest. That’s doubly true with top prospects Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino mashing in Triple-A Omaha. Both are in the same first base/designated hitter mold as Santana, and both Pratto (55) and Pasquantino (61) rank prominently in Baseball America’s updated Top 100 prospect rankings. Pratto got off to a slow start but is hitting .246/.392/.483 over his past 148 plate appearances. Pasquantino burst out of the gates and hasn’t slowed down; he’s hitting .298/.392/.667 with 15 home runs in 204 plate appearances.
The Royals owe Santana the balance of his $10.5MM salary whether he’s on the roster or not, but he’ll start racking up incentives when he reaches 300 plate appearances.
Joey Gallo, Yankees: Gallo was one of the Yankees’ biggest trade-deadline additions in recent years, but he’s never found his footing in the Bronx. His status as a three-true-outcomes player is well-documented, but he’s trended more aggressively toward the least-desirable of those outcomes since donning pinstripes. Gallo has fanned in 38% of his plate appearances as a Yankee while seeing both his power and his walk rate dip. Since the Yankees acquired him, he’s batting .167/.295/.370.
Even with the short porch in right field, Gallo has only five home runs through 141 plate appearances this season. He’s also seen his average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate drop in 2022. Gallo is still making loads of hard contact when he hits the ball in the air, per Statcast, and perhaps that’s helping to keep him both in the lineup and on the roster. New York isn’t getting any real offense from Hicks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Kyle Higashioka, however. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are once again on the injured list. Anthony Rizzo had a massive April but is batting just .162/.274/.303 in his past 117 plate appearances. The Yankees’ AL East lead has begun to shrink, as the Jays have rattled off eight straight wins, and they can’t realistically count on Aaron Judge to carry the offense all season long.
Gallo doesn’t have a high-end outfield prospect breathing down his neck, but if he can’t get things going at the plate, the calls for change are only going to grow louder. He’s earning $10.275MM in his final arbitration season before free agency, and another club might view him as a change-of-scenery candidate with the hopes that he’ll be the position-player equivalent of Sonny Gray and thrive following a rocky stint in the Bronx.
Adam Duvall, Braves: Like Gallo, Duvall’s skill set and offensive profile were well established when the Braves opted to retain him via arbitration. He was coming off a 38-homer campaign, so there was never much doubt he’d be tendered a contract, but Duvall’s brand of huge power/bottom-of-the-scale OBP always left him with a pretty low floor should the power ever evaporate.
That’s been the case in 2022, as Duvall still isn’t walking or hitting for average, and he’s only slugged two homers on the season. Paired with a career-worst 31.9% strikeout rate, those troubling trends have resulted in a .191/.257/.272 slash for Duvall, who has also already been tasked with playing more center field in 2022 than he had in his entire career to date.
Atlanta has already called up Michael Harris II, one of the sport’s fastest-rising outfield talents, and former top prospect Drew Waters is at least putting together respectable, if unexciting results in Triple-A. The Braves have also tinkered with catcher William Contreras in the outfield. Duvall has been MLB’s second-worst qualified hitter, by measure of wRC+, and it’s fair to wonder how long the leash will be.
Miguel Sano, Twins: Sano isn’t technically a free agent at season’s end, but barring a Herculean push to finish the season, it’s nearly impossible to fathom the Twins picking up a $14MM option on him. To Sano’s credit, he hit quite well from June through season’s end (.251/.330/.503, 21 homers, 21 doubles in 373 plate appearances), but he looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022 before landing on the injured list due to a torn meniscus. Sano hit just .093/.231/.148 in 65 plate appearances.
When Sano does return, he’ll come back to a retooled roster that has seen versatile Luis Arraez rake while picking up regular at-bats at first base. Former No. 1 pick Royce Lewis is getting looks at third base and in left field — though Lewis is on the 10-day IL himself now — and top outfield/first base prospect Alex Kirilloff is hitting well in Triple-A following his return from a wrist injury.
The Twins can keep Sano in Triple-A for 20 days on rehab assignment when he’s ready, and they may want to do just that to give him a chance to show he can recapture some of his late 2021 form. But the clock on Sano’s three-year, $30MM deal is running out, and the first-place Twins have plenty of options to fill out the lineup. None of them have Sano’s raw power — almost no one in MLB does — but the big man’s ongoing contact issues tend to lead to protracted slumps like the one he slogged through earlier this year. If he can’t turn it around quickly upon his return, it’d be difficult to justify playing him over Arraez, Kirilloff and others.
Enrique Hernandez & Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Hernandez was a revelation in 2021 when he smacked 20 homers, hit .250/.337/.449, and delivered all-world defense in center field. But as good as year one of his $14MM contract was, the second and final campaign of that deal has been nightmarish. Hernandez is hitting .203/.269/.340 with a career-low hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He’s still playing great defense in center and helping shoulder the second base workload, but the offensive deficiency is glaring.
That’s also somewhat true of Bradley Jr., who returned to Boston after one ill-fated season in Milwaukee. To Bradley’s credit, he has actually picked up the pace quite a bit, hitting .291/.328/.491 since mid-May, but that surge still only brings his overall season line to .227/.284/.353. If Bradley can sustain some of this production, he’ll surely hang onto his roster spot, but it’s hard not to look at young Jarren Duran‘s .309/.391/.523 output in Triple-A and start thinking of ways to insert him into the big league lineup. Duran struggled in his debut last year but is still a touted young prospect whom the Sox envision as a long-term building block.
Hernandez is earning $8MM this season. Bradley is on a $9.5MM salary and is still owed an $8MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season.
Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado & Jason Castro, Astros: Gurriel won a batting title and looked like one of the game’s best pure hitters in 2021, but he’s started his 2022 season with a woeful .223/.261/.361 performance through 176 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is up about four percentage points, while his walk rate has halved and his hard-contact numbers have plummeted. Gurriel is also chasing more pitches off the plate (36.4% in 2022, 29.8% in 2021) and making contact on pitches out of the zone at a far lower rate (74.5% in 2022, 81.9% in 2021).
Houston’s catchers, meanwhile, have been the least-productive in baseball. Maldonado has never been much of a hitter but is batting only .133/.208/.239 this season. Castro hasn’t even been able to match that, batting .104/.228/.146. If catching prospect Korey Lee weren’t enduring immense struggles of his own in Triple-A, a change might’ve already been made.
It seems unlikely that the Astros would cut bait on Gurriel, who’s been a prominent presence and one of the team’s most productive hitters since signing more than a half-decade ago. A reduced role is something they’ll have to consider if he can’t right the ship, however. The catchers seem far more vulnerable, and there figure to be some prominent names available on the trade market (Willson Contreras, most notably). That Houston is leading the AL West by 5.5 games despite having the least-productive catchers (29 wRC+) and 29th-ranked offensive output from its first basemen (74 wRC+) is both a testament to their pitching and indictment on the play of their divisional opponents thus far.
Gurriel is being paid $8MM in 2022, while Maldonado is earning a $5MM salary and Castro is at $3.5MM.
Andrew McCutchen, Brewers: Milwaukee added McCutchen on a one-year, $8MM contract this offseason with the idea of installing him as their primary designated hitter. McCutchen tormented the Brewers during his early years with the Pirates, which included an NL MVP win, but he’s hitting .214/.263/.312 to begin his tenure in Milwaukee. Even McCutchen’s typically outstanding production against lefties has gone up in smoke this year, as he’s managed a .196/.224/.391 slash against them.
Despite McCutchen’s ineffectiveness, the Brewers are leading the Majors in homers (70) and sit fifth in total runs scored (238). But if McCutchen, who’s hitless in six straight and has been 73% worse than average at the plate since a return from the Covid list (27 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances), can’t begin to show some signs of life, the Brewers could be on the lookout for some offensive help as the Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer.
Robbie Grossman & Tucker Barnhart, Tigers: Between Grossman, Austin Meadows and Victor Reyes, the Tigers have an entire outfield on the injured list. Underwhelming play from young options like Daz Cameron, Akil Baddoo and Derek Hill will probably extend Grossman’s leash, but he was hitting a career-worst .199/.311/.241 in 167 plate appearances prior to landing on the IL due to ongoing neck soreness. Grossman has a solid track record, but the Tigers will also want to get a look at top prospect Riley Greene soon, and they’re giving Kody Clemens an opportunity after a nice start down in Toledo.
Behind the plate, the Tigers are probably content with Barnhart’s glovework and leadership. There was talk of a potential extension after he was acquired, but a .229/.263/.257 start might have tempered that. Backup Eric Haase isn’t hitting enough to force a change, and the Tigers’ Triple-A catchers are journeymen Dustin Garneau and Ryan Lavarnway. They have a well-regarded prospect at Double-A in Dillon Dingler, but Barnhart shouldn’t be in imminent danger of losing his spot at this time.
Maikel Franco, Nationals: Franco is probably only in this everyday role because Carter Kieboom suffered an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t done much with his latest opportunity. The former Phillies, Royals and Orioles third baseman is hitting .258/.284/.374 (82 wRC+) through 208 plate appearances. The Nats have an ultra-thin farm system without much in the way of third base options in the upper minors, and they’re clearly not winning anything this year anyhow. That might keep Franco safe, but if an even semi-interesting option presents itself on the waiver wire, there’s little reason not to take a look.
Corey Dickerson, Cardinals: Prior to the 2022 season, Dickerson had never been worse than five percent below-average with the bat in any full year (by wRC+). That’s all but certain to change now, as the typically steady lefty has posted an uncharacteristic .183/.238/.215 slash in 101 plate appearances. For a lifetime .283/.327/.488 hitter who was coming off a solid 2021 campaign, it’s a rather astonishing swoon.
Dickerson has been in a platoon with Albert Pujols at DH for the most part, logging only 110 innings on defense in the outfield corners recently due to injuries elsewhere on the roster. He’s also only on a one-year, $5MM contract, so if he can’t find his swing in the near future, it’s easy to see the Cards giving more at-bats to Pujols’ long-shot chase for 700 home runs and to young standout Juan Yepez. Dickerson is safe for now with both Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson on the injured list, but he needs a hot streak sooner than later.
Mike Zunino, Rays: Zunino’s career-high 33 home runs from a year ago feel like a distant memory, as he’s off to a .147/.193/.294 start in 109 plate appearances in 2022. He’s still drawing excellent marks for his defensive contributions, which the Rays value heavily, but Zunino isn’t even hitting against lefties, whom he’s handled well throughout his career — particularly in recent seasons.
Backup Francisco Mejia isn’t hitting much himself, going just 6-for-42 without a walk over the past month or so. Were he producing at the plate, it’d be more tempting for Tampa Bay to significantly reduce Zunino’s playing time. The Rays do have 25-year-old Rene Pinto mashing in Triple-A, and he’s made his big league debut already this year. As with the Astros, however, the Rays are in firm win-now mode and entered the season with World Series aspirations. If the in-house options aren’t performing up to par, the trade market beckons.
Austin Hedges, Guardians: Hedges has never hit and has always been one of the game’s premier defensive players, so his 2022 season is nothing new. Still, a .155/.223/.282 output from your primary catcher is just difficult to stomach, no matter how strong the defense is. Veteran backup Luke Maile has hit well in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances, but he’s a career .208/.264/.317 hitter himself.
Prospect Bryan Lavastida got a brief MLB cup of coffee in April and is hitting .225/.330/.360 so far in Triple-A. His performance will bear monitoring, because if the Guardians are intent on pulling into the playoff picture, Hedges’ production might be too light to overlook. And if they end up selling at the deadline, Hedges could draw interest from a team seeking a glove-first backup option — which could open a door for Lavastida.
Royals Place Carlos Santana On 10-Day Injured List
First baseman Carlos Santana has been placed on the Royals’ 10-day injured list due to right ankle bursitis. Emmanuel Rivera was called up from Triple-A to take Santana’s spot on the active roster.
Kansas City manager Mike Matheny told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that Santana suffered the injury while running the bases in Monday’s game, and continued soreness caused Santana to be a late scratch from Tuesday’s lineup. No specific timeline was suggested for Santana’s return, but he might not be out of action too far beyond the 10-day minimum.
While it seems as though Santana has escaped a serious injury, the absence is still unlucky, as Rogers notes that Santana has finally started to produce at the plate. The veteran slugger’s four-game hitting streak is pretty modest, yet it still stands out as a positive sign after Santana hit only .104/.307/.188 over his first 62 plate appearances. After signing a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Royals in the 2020-21 offseason, Santana has still yet to get on track in a K.C. uniform, as he struggled through an injury-hampered 2021 campaign.
Hunter Dozier or Ryan O’Hearn are probably the likeliest candidates to fill in at first base during Santana’s absence. Top prospect Nick Pratto is hitting pretty well at Triple-A, though the Royals might not call Pratto up and start his MLB service clock if Santana is only going to miss a couple of weeks.
Trade Candidate: Carlos Santana
Carlos Santana was an above average hitter in every season of the first decade of his career. In his first taste of the big leagues, 2010, he only played 46 games but knocked six homers and walked more than he struck out, slashing .260/.401/.467 for a wRC+ of 141. In each of the next nine seasons, he played at least 143 games, hit at least 19 home runs and never had a walk rate lower than 13.2% or a wRC+ lower than 108.
In 2020, his age-34 season, things didn’t go so smooth, as he hit just .199/.349/.350, wRC+ of 99. However, there were still reasons for optimism. Firstly, it was a small sample of just 60 games, due to the pandemic. Secondly, the walk rate was still excellent, coming in at 18.4%. Thirdly, his .212 batting average on balls in play was well below his previous seasons, suggesting that perhaps bad luck was dragging him down somewhat.
The Royals seemingly favored that optimistic view, as they beat the market and signed Santana to a two-year contract with a $17.5MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season. At the time, the club had posted a losing record in four straight seasons, but believed the time was right to act aggressive in trying to bolster a young core and attempt to open a competitive window.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan for Santana or the team. Although the walks were still there, as evidenced by his 13.1% rate, his line of .214/.319/.342 only amounted to a wRC+ of 83. The BABIP rebounded, but only slightly, to .227. As for the team, they finished well out of contention with a record of 74-88.
The Royals now have a bit of a crowded infield mix for a few reasons. While Adalberto Mondesi was on the shelf last year, Nicky Lopez took over the shortstop job, pushing Mondesi to third base upon his return. That pushed Hunter Dozier into spending some time at first base and the corner outfield spots. Then there’s the looming presence of top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto. Witt should eventually be playing regularly at shortstop or third base, which could push Mondesi into some time at DH, or push Lopez to second, pushing Whit Merrifield into the outfield, which bumps someone else into DH time.
Pratto, however, is a more direct source of pressure on Santana, as he is almost exclusively a first baseman, playing just three games in the outfield last year. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Pratto hit 36 home runs with a line of .265/.385/.602, wRC+ of 156.
That crowded position player mix makes Santana a clear trade candidate, given that he has just one year and $10.5MM remaining on his contract. The trouble for the Royals lies both in that they would be trading low on Santana and also that there are other first base options available to those teams looking for one. The free agent market features Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo as the high profile names, along with other options such as Daniel Vogelbach, Brad Miller, Albert Pujols and many more. On the trade front, Matt Olson is widely expected to be traded after the lockout. Luke Voit could be on the move if the Yankees find another option. Even if the Royals want to go the route of including a prospect to help stimulate a Santana trade, they’d be competing with the Padres who are known to be trying to take the same approach with Eric Hosmer.
It might be a challenge to hastily work out a deal during the transaction frenzy that will surely take place between whenever the lockout ends and the season gets underway. Perhaps the best path forward for the Royals is to hold onto Santana and hope that he can get things back on track, either to help the team compete or to rebuild trade value. He was dealing with a quad issue at times last year, which he has now recovered from, but he will turn 36 in April, making it harder to expect perfect health and ideal production going forward. Though late career bounceback campaigns are certainly possible, as Joey Votto just showed in his age-37 season.
Quick Hits: Santana, Nimmo, Bedell
After receiving a PRP injection in October, Carlos Santana said that “Now, I feel 100 percent” in the wake of an injury-plagued season, the Royals first baseman told The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy. This tracks with the 4-6 week timeline Santana initially gave in the wake of the injection, which was meant to help treat the Grade 2 quad strain that plagued the veteran slugger during the last six weeks of the season. Between the quad and other leg problems, Santana clearly wore down in 2021, batting only .185/.217/.284 over his last 351 plate appearances.
With this rough season lingering, Santana said that he is “working on a couple things that I need to help me, my swing and my body. That’s the only thing I changed. I started early, working out, compared to the year before.” Now entering his age-36 season, Santana has posted two below-average offensive years (as per the wRC+ metric) since his 2019 All-Star campaign, which is a little ominous for a Royals team that still owes Santana $10.5MM in 2022. While Santana has bounced back strongly from disappointing years in the past, 2021 was the worst of his 12 big league seasons by just about every metric, so Santana will have more of a climb to recapture his old form.
More from around the baseball world as we enter 2022….
- Brandon Nimmo is a free agent next winter, and “the expectation is” that the Mets will pursue a contract extension, The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes. Nimmo has a strong .266/.393/.445 slash line over six career MLB seasons, yet he has only 1695 PA and 457 games on his big league resume due to a variety of injuries. Given this checkered health history, one wonders how much of a long-term commitment New York would be willing to make to Nimmo, or if the Mets might only be willing to offer an extension at a relatively team-friendly price. From Nimmo’s perspective, he will have to weigh locking in some form of a guaranteed payday, or perhaps betting on himself to stay healthy and productive, thus potentially setting him up for a much richer free agent contract from the Mets or another team in the 2022-23 offseason. Hypothetically, the incentive-heavy extension between the Twins and another oft-injured outfielder in Byron Buxton could serve as something of a model for a Nimmo extension, if likely at a lower price point than the $100MM in guaranteed money that Buxton will receive. (Interestingly, Nimmo and Buxton are more comparable than one might think, in terms of fWAR.)
- Cardinals prospect Ian Bedell is set to make some light throws off a mound this week, according to Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. This marks Bedell’s first work off a mound since he underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and the 22-year-old has been able to continue his rehab normally with minor league staff, as Bedell and minor league team personnel aren’t subject to the lockout. The right-hander is tentatively still on schedule to return to action by May 2022, as Bedell is eager to resume a pro career that has already been set back by the pandemic and now his TJ procedure. Bedell was a fourth-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2020 draft, and he tossed only 2 2/3 innings for the team’s high-A affiliate before being shut down for surgery last season.