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Cedric Mullins

Quick Hits: Mullins, Farm Rankings, Mariners, Universal DH

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Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles, baseball’s top power-speed threat in 2021, opened up in a video (Twitter link) that dropped today about some previously private health struggles with Crohn’s disease. The 27-year-old details how teammate Trey Mancini’s abrupt colon cancer diagnosis before the 2020 season helped him pay more attention to his own health woes.

This introspection ultimately led Mullins down a path that included intestinal surgery in November 2020, severe weight loss, and a Crohn’s disease diagnosis that very well could have been career-derailing. That Mullins broke out last season— earning an All-Star nod, Silver Slugger, and the distinction as baseball’s only 30-30 player— is made all the more remarkable by the presence of a condition that so often proves debilitating. We at MLBTR tip our collective caps to Mullins for sharing his story and raising awareness for a condition that is growing in prevalence.

Some more uplifting news from around the league…

  • Baseball America unveiled their 2022 Organization Talent Rankings today, with the Seattle Mariners claiming the top spot on this offseason’s installment. With talented youngsters like Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, and Noelvi Marte forcing their way up the minor leagues and the Mariners fresh off a 90-win season, the time may be right to buy stock in the Mariners franchise. BA’s Kyle Glaser notes that 16 of the last 17 teams to claim the top farm system have reached the playoffs within two years of earning that distinction. The one team who bucked that trend, the 2011 Royals, took three years, reaching the World Series in 2014 and winning it in 2015. This history may prove to be of huge import for Seattle fans, who are now 20 years removed from their last playoff appearance.
  • Jon Heyman of MLB Network lent more credence to the idea that a universal DH will be included in the next CBA, stating (via Twitter) “Barring something totally unexpected, it can be assumed at this point that the universal DH will be in place in 2022”. Heyman adds that both the player’s union and league are in favor of implementing the rule, though there is some disagreement about which party will benefit more from having a DH in the National League. We polled readers back in December to gauge how a universal DH would be received, with 62% of readers expressing enthusiasm, 26% expressing disdain, and another 12% expressing indifference to the change.

Orioles Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles have shown a willingness to listen to trade offers on center fielder Cedric Mullins, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). The 27-year-old is coming off a 2021 campaign in which he was MLB’s only 30-homer, 30-stolen base player.

Mullins entered the season as an unestablished player, with just a .225/.290/.342 line across 418 plate appearances between 2018-20. He’d been regarded as a solid but not elite prospect, and it wasn’t clear entering 2021 that Mullins projected as a long-term regular, either in Baltimore or anyone else. Perhaps no one around the league has raised their stock more over the past eight months, though, as Mullins broke through with an All-Star showing that garnered him some down ballot MVP support.

The North Carolina native played in 159 games and tallied 675 plate appearances, mashing at a .291/.360/.518 clip. That’s 36 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, and Mullins added further value on the basepaths. In addition to his Silver Slugger winning offense, he was credited with ten Outs Above Average by Statcast in nearly 1300 innings in center field. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t as bullish on his outfield work, but it’s likely most clubs around the league will view Mullins as an average or better gloveman in center.

There’s no question he’ll be in high demand after that breakout campaign, although that doesn’t guarantee he’ll wind up on the move. There’s a difference between the O’s being willing to hear out offers on Mullins versus actively attempting to move him, and there’s no indication they’re doing the latter. Heyman suggests Baltimore has placed an “extremely high” asking price in talks, no surprise since there’s no pressing incentive for the Orioles to give the Campbell University product up.

Mullins only has between two and three years of major league service time. Barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement, he’ll remain under club control through the end of the 2025 season. Mullins hasn’t even yet qualified for arbitration, so he’ll play next season on a salary just above the league minimum. As with starter John Means — on whom the O’s are also reportedly fielding offers — general manager Mike Elias and his staff can set a high asking price and hold onto the player if no other clubs are willing to meet it. The ask on Mullins figures to be even a fair bit loftier than that on Means, considering that Mullins would seem to have less injury risk and comes with an additional year of contractual control.

Broadly speaking, a willingness to discuss Mullins in trade shouldn’t seem out of the ordinary. Very few players around the league would be absolutely untouchable in trade talks, since front offices have a responsibility to consider all avenues through which they can improve their club. That’s particularly true in the case of a rebuilding organization like the Orioles that stands little chance of competing in 2022 and could have its work cut for out it to contend for a playoff spot in 2023.

That said, the Orioles surely expect to contend before Mullins reaches free agency in 2025-26. Even coming out of a massive rebuild, they’ll need some core players to anchor their next competitive club. Teams understandably covet controllable, star position players in particular. That’ll lead to plenty of strong offers, but it also reduces the Orioles’ urgency to pull the trigger on any deal, since Mullins looks to be precisely the kind of player around whom a franchise can build.

Orioles GM Mike Elias On Deadline, Future

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com) just after their relatively inactive deadline. Baltimore are firmly entrenched in the “seller” category, with the worst record in the American League and only the Diamondbacks keeping them from being worst in all of MLB. But despite that, the club only made a pair of minor trades as the deadline approached, sending Freddy Galvis to the Phillies for Tyler Burch, and Shawn Armstrong to Tampa for cash considerations.

As Elias sees it, the reason for the lack of moves is because their players with the most trade appeal are actually building blocks. “We were very mindful that a lot of our best players that were in demand were players that are not pending free agents with the Orioles,” Elias said. “They’re players that are young and talented and we like and have future years with this club and project to be a part of this club when we hope to be a playoff contender.”

When asked specifically about John Means and Cedric Mullins, Elias said he was “pretty confident that we weren’t going to get very serious in talks with those players. We’re very, very impressed by what those guys are doing, and they’re here for a long time, and they play positions that are not easy to find guys to do what they do. It’s not a priority for us to look at those opportunities.”

Means will cross three years’ service time by the end of this season, setting him up for his first of three arbitration years. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season. Mullins on the other hand, has one extra year of control beyond that, slated to hit free agency in late 2025.

Getting back into contention within the next three to four years will be a challenge for the club, as they share a division with four very strong teams. Although Baltimore has a solid farm system, that doesn’t necessarily give them a leg up on their division mates. The Orioles came in seventh on Baseball America’s most recent organizational talent rankings. But two of the other AL East clubs, Tampa and Toronto, are ahead of them. And both of those clubs already have lots of young, controllable talent at the major league level. The Red Sox and Yankees have weaker systems on that list but are currently strong at the major league level and always have higher payrolls than Baltimore to attract and retain talent. Holding on to players like Means and Mullins also carries the risk that they may get hurt or not maintain their performance.

Elias did say that they were “pretty close” to trading away one of their relievers, but didn’t specify which one. Paul Fry and Tanner Scott are two lefties that seen their names surface in recent rumors, alongside righties Cole Sulser and Dillon Tate. All of those hurlers are controlled through at least 2024. And it seems in that the thinking with those arms was the same as with Means and Mullins, that it’s better to hold and try to build around those players before they reach free agency.

One player slated to reach free agency much sooner is Trey Mancini. But despite having just over a year of team control remaining, the idea of a Mancini trade seems unlikely for different reasons. Since missing the 2020 season dealing with colon cancer, Mancini has become a fan favorite in Baltimore and around the league. And trading him would certainly be a difficult sell to the Baltimore fans, who have had few things to feel good about in recent years. As Elias puts it, “I hope he’s here as long as possible and, ultimately, we’re going to take things as we come like baseball teams do in the major leagues and look at stuff and keep talking. He’s a very special part of this team, and he’s going to continue to be so, and we’re happy about that.”

Cedric Mullins’ Emergence In Baltimore

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The Orioles have torn their roster down as part of a massive rebuild over the past few seasons. The organization has acquired a collection of highly-regarded prospect talent the fanbase is certainly hoping will comprise the core of a contender down the line. In the interim, though, the MLB product has been quite poor. The Orioles went 126-258 (32.8% winning percentage) between 2018-20, and their 23-48 record this season is the worst in the American League.

This kind of rebuild does offer an opportunity for less-heralded players to get some run at the major league level, though. Most won’t take advantage, resulting in a lack of teamwide success, but an underrated player will occasionally perform at a high enough level to cement himself as a building block of the organization’s long-term future. This season, Cedric Mullins has done exactly that.

A 13th-round pick out of Campbell University in 2015, Mullins performed well enough in the minors to generate a bit of attention. Baseball America twice ranked him among the O’s top 30 prospects, suggesting he was most likely to settle in as a fourth outfielder. In 2018, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs noted that he had an intriguing toolset and minor league track record but suggested the consensus opinion among talent evaluators was that he’d be more of a role player than a true regular.

Mullins made his MLB debut late that season and performed in line with those expectations over the next couple seasons. Between 2018-20, he hit .225/.290/.342 (73 wRC+). He was always a good baserunner and made some improvements at the plate last season, but he still looked like more of a placeholder than a core piece entering the year.

Over the past few months, Mullins has changed that outlook by outperforming even the most optimistic projections. He’s hitting .319/.389/.552 (158 wRC+) with thirteen home runs across 304 plate appearances. Not only has he emerged as a force at the plate, he’s been one of the game’s rangiest defenders. Statcast credits Mullins with seven outs above average this season, tied with Brett Phillips for second among outfielders (Manuel Margot is plus-9). Advanced metrics that take arm strength into account (like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) have been a little less enthused, but all agree that Mullins has at least been above-average in center field this year.

Factoring in his contributions on both sides of the ball, Mullins has been one of the most valuable players in the sport. FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement metric places Mullins third among position players (fourth if you also include Shohei Ohtani’s pitching value), trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. Baseball Reference’s version of the statistic slots Mullins seventh.

There’s room to debate where Mullins truly fits among players like Guerrero, Ohtani, Fernando Tatís Jr., Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa and Matt Olson this year. That he’s even in that conversation, though, is a testament to the campaign he’s had. Mullins will almost certainly be elected to the All-Star Game, and he’s tracking towards appearing on MVP ballots if he can continue to produce like this in the second half of the season.

Mullins probably won’t remain this good. His .363 batting average on balls in play is 73 points higher than the .290 league average. A quality runner, he should be expected to run a slightly better than average BABIP, but he’ll have a hard time keeping it quite so high. Statcast’s batted ball metrics suggest his results have outpaced the quality of his contact a bit, and his prior track record of subpar hitting can’t be completely discounted.

There’s plenty of room for Mullins to take a bit of a step back while remaining a decidedly above-average player, though. His defense gives him a strong floor to begin with, and the 26-year-old has made some substantive changes that suggest he’s turned a corner at the plate. Most notably, Mullins abandoned switch-hitting this year, hitting left-handed permanently. He’s been much better at hitting opposing southpaws left-on-left than he was stepping into the right-handed batter’s box. But that’s only come in 97 plate appearances, and he’s posting career-best production against righties this year too.

Mullins is striking out less than he did last year against pitchers of both handedness (albeit with a more significant drop against lefties), making more contact when he swings, and drawing walks at a career-best rate. He’s also almost completely stopped popping the ball up on the infield, even as his overall fly ball rate is higher than ever. Perhaps abandoning his right-handed swing to focus solely on hitting lefty has made Mullins more comfortable with his mechanics overall. Maybe his strong production against righties is completely unrelated to that decision. Whatever the reason, he’s made significant strides as a hitter.

There’s been plenty of attention on which players the still-rebuilding O’s might move before the July 30 trade deadline. Mullins, though, looks like a safe bet to stick around. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after next season. Even if there’s some regression forthcoming, he’s made enough process improvements to believe he’s truly taken his game to another level as he enters his prime years. Mullins looks to have legitimately broken out in 2021, and he’s the type of player the Orioles can build around as their top prospects matriculate to the big league level. Baltimore fans haven’t had much to celebrate in recent seasons, but Mullins’ emergence is a reason to continue to watch as the team scuffles in the near-term, and a sign of hope for the future.

East Notes: Mets, Orioles, Nationals

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Mets President Sandy Alderson said that he expects extension talks with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto to begin soon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both players are scheduled for free agency after the 2021 season. Lindor, for his part, has made clear that he will not negotiate an extension beyond opening day, so the window is now for Alderson and the Mets. Alderson also put forth Noah Syndergaard’s name as a potential extension candidate as well, notes Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Syndergaard, of course, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery and won’t likely appear until mid-season, but he will also be a free agent at year’s end. Extending those three would certainly cost a chunk of change, but the Mets do have roughly $100MM coming off their payroll next offseason. Interestingly, Marcus Stroman was not mentioned as an extension candidate. His $18.9MM salary could help provide the necessary raises next season for Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard. While we’re here, let’s check in with some other clubs in the East…

  • Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is giving up switch-hitting to bat lefty full-time, writes Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. After a horrendous 2019, Mullins bounced back somewhat in 2020, doing enough to stay on the Major League roster to appear in 48 games and 153 plate appearances with a palatable .271/.315/.407 slash line. Mullins is trying to make the Orioles roster as a fourth outfielder, though there are certainly more at-bats available if he proves capable. Giving up his right-handed swing could force him into a more straight platoon, but he hasn’t been helped by his work on the short side of that split anyhow. For his career, Mullins has hit just .146 as a right-hander with a 26 wRC+ (versus 90 wRC+ as a lefty). The split was even more pronounced last season when he earned a 118 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter versus 34 wRC+ from the right side. If nothing else, Mullins should be able to simplify his routine by focusing on one swing.
  • Erick Fedde may have stumbled upon a solution to his wandering fastball command, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In his first start of the spring, Fedde turned to his cutter, a pitch that has long eluded him as he has tried to establish himself as a Major League pitcher. Fedde’s cutter did not help his cause in either 2018 or 2020, per Fangraphs pitch values, though in 2019 it was his best offering. Fedde is competing for the Nats fifth starter job, though he’s not likely to win the job out of camp. With one option remaining, the Nationals have more roster flexibility with Fedde than with his competitors Joe Ross and Austin Voth. For Fedde to stick long-term, he probably needs both his sinking fastball and his cutter to work with more consistency.

Orioles Place Austin Hays On 10-Day Injured List

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The Orioles announced that outfielder Austin Hays has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a non-displaced rib fracture.  Outfielder Cedric Mullins was recalled from the Orioles’ alternate training site, and righty Jorge Lopez will also join the team after being activated from the injured list (Lopez was undergoing intake testing for COVID-19 after being claimed off waivers from the Royals last week).

O’s manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that Hays may have suffered the injury after crashing into the wall while making a catch in a game during the Orioles’ series with the Phillies last week.  Hays was already dealing with some sore ribs after being hit by a pitch earlier in the season, though Hyde believes the outfielder will require only the minimum 10 days off.

The injury continues that has been a rough 2020 season for Hays, who has batted only .203/.273/.246 through his first 77 plate appearances.  Long a top prospect in Baltimore’s farm system and even a top-100 ranked prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2018 campaign, the O’s were hopeful that Hays could establish himself as an everyday player this season.  Expectations were high after Hays hit .309/.373/.574 over 75 PA during a September call-up in 2019.

Orioles Recall Keegan Akin, Option Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles announced today that they’ve promoted left-hander Keegan Akin to the Major League roster. To make room, outfielder Cedric Mullins has been optioned to the team’s alternate training site. Akin, 25, is set to make his MLB debut.

It’s possible that Akin will in fact start tomorrow’s game against the Nats, though on the other hand manager Brandon Hyde could still opt for a bullpen game instead. Either way, Akin, regarded by MLB Pipeline as the Orioles’ 13th-best prospect, is in line to make his Major League debut.

The product of Western Michigan University was Baltimore’s second-round draft choice in 2016, and he’s made a quick ascent through the minors since then, spending all of last season at Triple-A. In four minor-league seasons, he’s averaging 9.9 K/9, though he’s been somewhat prone to walking batters. His minor-league ERA is a solid 3.78, with last year’s 4.73 mark at Triple-A the highest of his career.

Per MLB Pipeline, some of those Triple-A struggles can be attributed to an increasing reliance on his breaking and offspeed pitches, which Akin threw more often than ever last season. His mid-90s fastball is probably still his best and most consistent pitch, though the changeup is a valuable offering against right-handed batters. Akin also throws a slider.

Mullins, meanwhile, had gotten off to a dreadful start to the year, with just a single hit through his first 13 at-bats—good for a .277 OPS. After a respectable debut in 2018, other O’s outfielders like Dwight Smith Jr., Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander have pushed Mullins to the periphery of the outfield mix in Baltimore.

Orioles Notes: Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays

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Here’s the latest from Baltimore…

  • Orioles slugger Trey Mancini underwent surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon earlier this month. Fortunately, Mancini is recovering nicely. General manager Mike Elias spoke on the matter Thursday (via Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun), saying Mancini’s “doing really well” and “his physical condition is great.” That’s certainly welcome news for the Orioles and all of those who follow baseball, though it’s unclear when Mancini will be ready to take the field again.
  • The Orioles have optioned first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, right-hander David Hess, outfielder Cedric Mullins and utility player Ramon Urias to Triple-A Norfolk, Joe Trezza of MLB.com writes. The most notable player there is Mountcastle, a 2015 first-round pick and current top-100 prospect who ranks as one of the Orioles’ best farmhands. Still just 23 years old, Mountcastle climbed to the Triple-A level for the first time last season and batted .312/.344/.527 with 25 home runs in 553 plate appearances, though that solid production came with below-average strikeout and walk percentages of 23.5 and 4.3, respectively.
  • Outfielder Austin Hays figures to enter the season as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes in a piece focusing on their roster. The 24-year-old Hays has dealt with injuries over the past couple seasons, but he racked up 75 plate appearances in the majors in 2019 and posted tremendous numbers. Hays slashed .309/.373/.574 with four home runs, a .265 ISO and seven walks against 13 strikeouts.

Orioles Option Cedric Mullins, Select Stevie Wilkerson, Designate Josh Lucas

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves Monday afternoon: Opening Day center fielder Cedric Mullins has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, while infielder Stevie Wilkerson has had his contract selected from Norfolk to take Mullins’ place. In order to clear a spot on the 40-roster for Wilkerson, Baltimore has designated right-hander Josh Lucas for assignment.

Mullins, 24, stumbled to a slow start to open the year but excited Orioles fans with a two-triple game against the visiting A’s back on April 8. The organization hoped that day might’ve served as a turning point for the talented young center fielder, but he’s instead collected just two hits (both singles) in 44 plate appearances since that time. Mullins hasn’t been striking out at a lofty rate, with just nine punchouts in that time, but he’s already popped up to the infield on five occasions this year.

A 13th-round pick back in 2015, Mullins moved fairly quickly through the Orioles’ farm system; he only logged 125 games in Double-A and another 60 in the Majors before making his big league debut last year. It’s certainly feasible that he needs a bit more development time in Triple-A, where he held his own last year but didn’t exactly excel (.269/.333/.438 in 269 PAs). The Orioles likely still view Mullins as a potential long-term piece in the outfield, but he’ll be asked to earn his way back to the big leagues for the time being. In his place, it seems likely that Joey Rickard will step up and assume more playing time in center field.

The 27-year-old Wilkerson was outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this year but will return for a second stint on the Orioles’ 40-man roster. He made his MLB debut with the club last year but didn’t fare well in a minuscule sample of 49 plate appearances (.174/.224/.239). Wilkerson, however, is a .290/.338/.481 hitter through 35 games at the Triple-A level and a career .268/.342/.371 hitter in parts of six minor league seasons. He’s played second base, third base, shortstop and corner outfield in the minors and should give manager Brandon Hyde some versatility off the bench.

As for Lucas, the 28-year-old made a trio of appearances for the O’s after being selected to the big leagues earlier this month. In 4 1/3 innings, he yielded a pair of earned runs on four hits and a walk with four strikeouts. Lucas has spent a bit of time in the Majors in each of the past three seasons now, and in 108 2/3 career innings of Triple-A ball, he has a 3.32 ERA with just under a strikeout per inning and 2.6 BB/9 while working primarily as a reliever.

AL East Notes: Pedroia, Norris, Orioles

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Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia will open the season on the injured list, manager Alex Cora announced to reporters today (link via WEEI’s Rob Bradford). Cora stressed that there have been no setbacks for Pedroia in his return from the knee issues that limited him to three games last season. Rather, the veteran is simply still in the process of building up to be able to handle a full workload. He’ll play in games every other day for the remainder of exhibition games before returning to extended Spring Training to continue building up strength. Pedroia, Bradford writes, feels he will be sufficiently built up but didn’t voice frustration with the team’s decision to proceed with caution. Based on his comments, it doesn’t sound like he’s looking at a particularly lengthy absence to open the year. “It’s only, I think, a week or something, the plan that they set,” said Pedroia. “If it’s being smart for a week and we make sure I respond great to everything thrown at me then it’s a good decision.”

Here’s more from the AL East…

  • After signing a late minor league deal with the Blue Jays, right-hander Bud Norris doesn’t have the benefit of a full spring audition for a roster spot, but Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com writes that Norris’ early work has impressed manager Charlie Montoyo. “He looked to me like a closer, a late-inning guy, pitching yesterday,” Montoyo said after Norris’ Jays debut, in which he struck out a pair of opposing hitters and reached the mid-90s with his fastball in a perfect inning. Righty Ken Giles is penciled in as the closer in Toronto, though Norris has no shortage of experience there after spending parts of the past two seasons as a closer in Anaheim and St. Louis, racking up a combined 47 saves in that role. He’ll reportedly earn a $3MM salary if he makes the roster.
  • Orioles skipper Brandon Hyde still isn’t ready to make any declarations about which young players will make the Opening Day roster, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Citing the Orioles’ active approach on the waiver wire and the multiple Rule 5 players in camp, Hyde said he likely wouldn’t make any such announcements to his players until March 25. The outfield mix, several bullpen spots and the team’s catching situation have all yet to be defined. Hyde did speak well of the versatility that both Cedric Mullins and Joey Rickard bring to the outfield, though neither has received any assurances yet, and there are also non-roster options like Eric Young Jr. still in the mix for a job.
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