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Cedric Mullins

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Astros Willing To Listen To Offers On Controllable Starting Pitching

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July 28: Houston would seek center field and/or catching help that is controlled beyond the current season in any deals for Urquidy or other cost-controlled starting pitching, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. As Rosenthal points out, many of the obvious cost-controlled options at those positions (e.g. Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, Athletics catcher Sean Murphy) play on teams that would not necessarily be targeting arb-eligible players with only three seasons of control remaining.

Rosenthal posits the Orioles as a potential partner whose current goals could align with those of the Astros, though Urquidy alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to pry Cedric Mullins loose. I’d add that it bears at least some mention that Baltimore GM Mike Elias knows the Houston system better than most rivals, stemming back to his roots as a scouting director and assistant GM with the ’Stros.

Speculatively speaking, both the Cardinals and Mariners have outfield depth and a need for rotation help. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are deeper in catchers than most clubs and have been on the lookout for potential rotation additions.

July 27: “Controllable starters” is becoming one of the most commonly repeated phrases of the 2022 trade deadline, as far more young arms than expected are being made available to teams in need of starting pitching. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds the Astros to the growing list of clubs that will at least entertain offers for young, cost-controlled members of their starting rotation, citing multiple GMs who’ve had trade conversations with the Houston front office. Righty Jose Urquidy would appear the likeliest of the bunch to change hands, per the report.

A trade dealing from the Houston rotation isn’t a given, but the ’Stros have plenty of depth to withstand such a move if it means helping them address other areas of need. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Urquidy give them six viable starters on the big league roster, and that’s not even including Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on a rehab assignment and trending toward a return to the Major League mound.

Houston also has top prospect Hunter Brown tearing through Triple-A lineups, and righty Brandon Bielak (who has a bit of MLB experience already) is pitching well in Triple-A Sugar Land as well. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, meanwhile, recently returned from a lengthy stay on the injured list and is building up in Sugar Land, too.

It’s unlikely that Houston would move any member of its current rotation for pure prospects — not when the team has a firm grip on the American League West and appears poised for another potentially deep playoff run. Flipping an arm they control for multiple seasons, however, could be a means of bringing in some help at first base, in the outfield and/or behind the plate. The Astros don’t know when or whether backup catcher Jason Castro and left fielder Michael Brantley will return — Castro from a knee injury and Brantley from a shoulder issue (neither of which the team has elaborated upon to the public). Manager Dusty Baker told reporters about a half-hour ago that Brantley, who’s been on the injured list since June 26, has yet to even swing a bat (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Turning to the list of plausible names for the Astros to consider, it’s fairly logical that Urquidy might top the list. Garcia was the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and is controlled four more seasons — the most of any current member of the rotation — making him tougher to move. Each of Urquidy, Javier and Valdez are under team control through the 2025 season, but Valdez has stepped up as Houston’s No. 2 starter behind Verlander. Javier, meanwhile, is striking out nearly twice as many hitters as Urquidy and allowing home runs at a much lower rate (0.97 HR/9 to Urquidy’s 1.52).

None of that is to say that Urquidy, 27, is expendable or ineffective. To the contrary, he’s a former Top-100 prospect who’s appeared in parts of four MLB seasons now and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each. He’s currently sporting a solid 3.93 ERA through 100 2/3 innings (18 starts). Urquidy is not and never has been an overpowering pitcher, evidenced by this year’s 18.2% strikeout rate and a career 19.8% mark in that regard, but he has some of the best command of any starter in the Majors. Urquidy is tied for the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified big league starters (5.2%), and he’s tenth-best among 114 starters with at least 250 innings, dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.

Urquidy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as will Javier. (Valdez is in the same service class but already hit arbitration as a Super Two player.) His salary should only jump into the $2-3MM range for the 2023 campaign, and he ought to remain relatively affordable through 2025, his final year of team control.

It bears emphasizing that a trade shouldn’t necessarily be seen as likely. Houston is surely taking an opportunistic approach to the depth they’ve cultivated in the rotation, but the Astros also will surely have a high asking price on Urquidy or any of their other young starters — and understandably so. For as deep as the group looks right now, pitching depth is often fleeting, and the Astros can’t know for certain what the future holds for either Verlander or Odorizzi, both of whom have player options for the 2023 season (assuming Verlander throws another 13 2/3 innings to reach 130 frames on the year, that is).

For now, Urquidy can be lumped in with a mounting number of quality arms who could potentially be acquired for a decent return and controlled by his new club for several seasons. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, while the Guardians are willing to listen on Zach Plesac. They join long-obvious trade candidates like the Reds’ Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, and the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, as names to watch in advance of next Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline.

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

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The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

Should The Orioles Rethink Their Trade Deadline Approach?

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Few teams in baseball are playing as well as the Orioles lately. That’s not what anyone would have imagined entering the season or as recently as a couple weeks ago. As the calendar flipped to July, Baltimore was 35-43 and separated by six teams in the American League Wild Card standings. They were among the handful most clear-cut deadline sellers in the sport. Six Baltimore players were placed among MLBTR’s Top 50 trade candidates last Friday.

Fast forward just a few days, and the O’s have done everything in their power to make the front office think twice about selling. They’ve rattled off successive sweeps of the Rangers and Angels and carry an eight-game win streak. Pair that with a dreadful past week and a half for teams like the Blue Jays and Guardians — who were at or near the top of the Wild Card heap — and Baltimore has closed a stunning amount of ground. They head into play Monday two back of the final AL playoff spot, which is currently shared by the Mariners and Jays. They’ll have a chance to climb back to .500 tomorrow evening against the Cubs.

The Orioles aren’t going to continue winning indefinitely, of course. Their successive sweeps came against two below-average teams, and the Angels in particular have been in an absolute tailspin. Yet their solid play hasn’t been confined just to the past week and a half. They’re 22-14 since the start of June, outscoring opponents by 29 runs (170-141) over that stretch. That’s an arbitrary cutoff, and one can’t dismiss a 7-14 April that buried them in the standings right out of the gate. Yet this has at least been the best stretch of play for the franchise since their rebuild began in 2018, and they’ve gotten themselves into the playoff picture.

Will that be enough to deter the front office from moving some players off the roster for future talent? General manager Mike Elias struck a cautious tone speaking with reporters last week (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “Everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles’ franchise,” Elias said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m saying we’re taking a look at everything as we make these decisions and we’ll see what happens.”

The front office certainly doesn’t seem ready to declare the rebuild over and part with high-end talent to add pieces for the 2022 stretch run. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference has the club’s odds of reaching the playoffs below 10%. Even as they’ve played their way back into the picture, it’s fair to wonder whether the roster — the starting rotation especially — can hold up for another two and a half months. Few would argue the Orioles are a better team than the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays or Red Sox, yet they’ll have to outplay multiple members of that group (and hold off a handful of teams just behind them) to get to the playoffs. Even were they to add some rotation help and/or upgrade on any of Jorge Mateo, Ramón Urías or Rougned Odor around the infield, the O’s would remain postseason longshots.

If Elias and his staff aren’t likely to pivot and aggressively add before the deadline, there’s still room for them to stay the course without selling. By and large, the O’s current core can be kept around beyond this season. Baltimore has just three impending free agents on the roster. Odor and backup catcher Robinson Chirinos aren’t going to attract trade interest anyhow, meaning the only key rental for the O’s to decide upon is Trey Mancini. (His deal technically contains a $10MM mutual option for 2023, but he’s likely to decline that and seek a multi-year free agent deal).

Mancini is having a good season, carrying a .281/.353/.420 line across 331 plate appearances. He’d attract a decent amount of interest as one of the better rental bats available were the Orioles to shop him over the next few weeks. Still, as an impending free agent with defensive limitations, he won’t bring back an eye-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn’t recoup a prospect generally regarded as a top 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they’d land a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organization.

A Mancini trade would add talent to an already-deep farm system, but would there be enough appeal to pull the trigger if the Orioles remain within three or four games of a Wild Card spot by the August 2 deadline? In addition to his on-field value, the 30-year-old first baseman is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence. He’s a fan favorite, and his overcoming a 2020 battle with colon cancer makes him one of the sport’s easiest players to support. Dealing Mancini if the Orioles were 10+ games back would’ve been unpopular with some segment of the fanbase; trading him if the team continues playing well and remains on the fringes of contention would be even more so. That’d be equally true in the clubhouse.

Baltimore’s highest-value assets are under a longer window of club control. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays can be kept around through 2025. They looked unlikely to change hands no matter how this season’s first half went, and that’s all the more true with the club showing signs of life. Closer Jorge López could be more likely to move given the inherent volatility with relief pitching, but he’s arbitration-eligible through 2024. That’s also true of corner outfielder Anthony Santander, who’d have more modest interest than any of Mullins, Hays or López given his defensive shortcomings and up-and-down career track record at the dish.

Things should get harder for the O’s over the next few weeks. After a two-game set with Chicago, they’ll split their next ten games between the Rays (seven) and Yankees (three). Their final series of July will be in Cincinnati, followed by one pre-deadline matchup with Texas. Drop ten or 11 of those contests, and the O’s probably end up as sellers, at least parting with Mancini. If they can go 8-8 or 9-7 over that stretch, though, Elias and his staff will have to decide on a team hovering around .500 and likely within shouting distance of a playoff spot for the first time in six years.

The front office is certainly going to remain mindful of the long-term outlook. They’re not going to suddenly jump into the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas bidding, although perhaps they could entertain the idea of adding a lower-impact starter with a lengthier window of remaining control. Yet the team has played well enough of late to give themselves a shot to avoid subtractions. Much will depend on how they play over the next three weeks, but the Orioles may not be as motivated to deal as they’d seemed just a few days ago. That’s a credit to their surprisingly strong play over the past month-plus. The team has given themselves a shot to make the front office rethink their deadline outlook, and the next 15 games should be the franchise’s most important in a half-decade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Notes: Mancini, Santander, Lopez

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As has been the case the past few summers, the Orioles enter deadline season among the game’s likeliest sellers. Baltimore has been amidst a full rebuild, and they’re again all but certain to finish at the bottom of the American League East. The O’s have shown signs of progress, graduating top prospect Adley Rutschman to the big leagues and going 14-12 last month, but they’re still set to field offers on a number of players.

Among the likeliest to be dealt are first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini and corner outfielder Anthony Santander. Mancini is set to hit free agency at the end of this season, and as of Spring Training, the club had not engaged his representatives in talks about a potential long-term deal. Barring an out-of-the-blue extension coming together over the next few weeks, the O’s figure to flip Mancini to a contender for this season’s final couple months. (Mancini’s agreement with the O’s to avoid arbitration this spring included a $10MM mutual option for 2023. Given the caliber of season he’s having, he seems unlikely to trigger his end of the pact and forego a possibility at a multi-year free agent deal).

The Mets are among the teams that has checked in on Mancini, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. New York skipper Buck Showalter is plenty familiar with the Notre Dame product, having managed in Baltimore through 2018. That encompassed Mancini’s first two full seasons as a big leaguer, so Showalter had an up-close look at his clubhouse fit and work habits.

Mancini is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. Through 295 plate appearances entering play Friday, the 30-year-old is hitting .280/.356/.421. Mancini has only hit seven home runs, but his 20% strikeout rate is a career-low. While his power output has dipped, particularly relative to his 35-homer 2019 breakout campaign, his hard contact rate is still well above-average.

Pete Alonso is having a great season at first base for the Mets, but the club figures to look into external possibilities at designated hitter. New York has gotten a .230/.311/.383 showing from the DH position, exactly league average production by measure of wRC+. Between Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis, the Mets entered the season with a seeming surplus of bat-first players who could serve as the team’s DH. Smith has instead struggled for a second straight season, hitting .194/.283/.265 in 113 MLB plate appearances and spending some time in Triple-A. Davis has a .243/.333/.345 line over 171 trips to the dish, hitting only two homers in 51 games. Like Mancini, Davis has far better batted ball metrics than his power results would suggest though.

The Mets are one of plenty of teams that either already has or will check in with O’s general manager Mike Elias regarding Mancini. Santander also figures to attract some amount of interest, and Heyman writes in a separate piece that Baltimore is willing to make him available. After a down 2021, he’s hit 14 home runs through this season’s first half. The switch-hitting outfielder owns a .235/.329/.424 line in just under 300 trips to the plate.

For the first time in his career, Santander has an on-base percentage above the league average, a testament to an approach overhaul that has allowed him to work more free passes. After swinging at more than half the pitches he’d seen in every season of his career through 2021, Santander has cut his swing rate to just over 46% this year. With that more patient approach has come a 10.5% walk rate that’s more than double the 5.1% clip he’d posted in his career through last season.

While the O’s are under time pressure to extend or trade Mancini, the club could elect to hold onto Santander if they don’t receive offers to their liking. The 27-year-old entered this season with three-plus years of big league service. He’s controllable through the end of 2024 via arbitration and making a modest $3.2MM this season. As for Baltimore’s other controllable outfielders, Heyman unsurprisingly writes the team would “have to be blown away” to move either Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays. Baltimore can keep each of Mullins and Hays through 2025.

Aside from Mancini and Santander, Baltimore’s next-most likely trade candidate may well be breakout closer Jorge López. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored yesterday, López has transformed from struggling starter to lights-out reliever. Through 37 innings, the right-hander has a microscopic 0.73 ERA. He’s struck out 27.1% of opponents and generated ground-balls at a massive 64% clip, a combination that is sure to lead to plenty of calls from teams looking to add a late-game weapon.

As part of a reader mailbag, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that Baltimore would listen to offers on López, at least as a matter of due diligence. Controllable through 2024 and playing this season on a $1.5MM salary, the 29-year-old could affordably stick around for the next few seasons. It’d no doubt take a significant haul for Elias and his staff to pull the trigger on a deal, but other clubs will try to pry López away before the August 2 deadline.

Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays Drawing Trade Interest

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic indicates that rival teams are “asking the Orioles about” outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays. The veteran reporter cautions that a trade coming to fruition is unlikely, since Baltimore would like to “get a clearer picture of how their rebuilding plan is progressing before considering trades of their better players.”

It’s not surprising that the retooling Orioles are taking a wait-and-see approach with two of their more promising position players. Both Mullins and Hays come with four more years of team control and at ages 27 and 26, respectively, are likely to be in their primes when the Orioles turn a corner competitively.

While the O’s have been willing to listen to offers for Mullins (and presumably Hays) dating back to before the MLB lockout, it has long seemed that the team’s asking price would prove too prohibitive for inquiring clubs. That’s not to say a team in dire need of a center fielder or outfield thump in general won’t step up, but beyond the club control afforded by both players, each of Hays and Mullins is coming off a career year.

In 2021, the lefty-swinging Mullins made a name for himself with a .291/.360/.518 (135 OPS+) slash en route to a 9th-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger Award. Even that 9th-place finish may undercut how good Mullins was last season, as he remarkably played 159 games and served as MLB’s only 30-30 club member. Defensive metrics varied on the breakout player, but most agree he was at least an average defender in center field.

Hays had the quieter season but still supplied above-average production in the form of a .256/.308/.461 (106 OPS+) slash through 131 games. The right-handed hitter also swatted a career-high 22 home runs and 26 doubles that kept his slash line serviceable despite a below-average walk rate. A good deal of Hays’ value last season came from his glove. A center field-capable player, Hays spent most of his time in the outfield corners to generally positive reviews. As an arguably overqualified corner outfielder, Hays racked up 14 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.1 bWAR in 2021.

Short of an offer that bowls them over, the Orioles are likely to hang onto two outfielders who thus far have the makings of core players. The team could see either player regress in the coming season, which is a very possible outcome given the limited track record of both players. Still, after five very losing seasons and a new collective bargaining agreement that included some anti-tanking measures, the Orioles may look to piece together a winning roster sooner rather than later.

Top prospect Adley Rutschman’s setback notwithstanding, the future in Baltimore looks to be brighter than it’s been for some time. Baseball America tabbed their farm system as the fourth best in the game in their latest farm rankings, calling attention to their five top-100 prospects— none of whom figure to be redundant on a roster with the aforementioned Hays and Mullins. The four-headed AL East monster above the Orioles in the standings may tempt the team to further bide their time and accumulate prospect capital. For the time being however, Baltimore appears set to hold off from doing anything too drastic.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

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MLB Impact Trade Candidates

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening.  The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year  and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez  / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

Quick Hits: Mullins, Farm Rankings, Mariners, Universal DH

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Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles, baseball’s top power-speed threat in 2021, opened up in a video (Twitter link) that dropped today about some previously private health struggles with Crohn’s disease. The 27-year-old details how teammate Trey Mancini’s abrupt colon cancer diagnosis before the 2020 season helped him pay more attention to his own health woes.

This introspection ultimately led Mullins down a path that included intestinal surgery in November 2020, severe weight loss, and a Crohn’s disease diagnosis that very well could have been career-derailing. That Mullins broke out last season— earning an All-Star nod, Silver Slugger, and the distinction as baseball’s only 30-30 player— is made all the more remarkable by the presence of a condition that so often proves debilitating. We at MLBTR tip our collective caps to Mullins for sharing his story and raising awareness for a condition that is growing in prevalence.

Some more uplifting news from around the league…

  • Baseball America unveiled their 2022 Organization Talent Rankings today, with the Seattle Mariners claiming the top spot on this offseason’s installment. With talented youngsters like Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, and Noelvi Marte forcing their way up the minor leagues and the Mariners fresh off a 90-win season, the time may be right to buy stock in the Mariners franchise. BA’s Kyle Glaser notes that 16 of the last 17 teams to claim the top farm system have reached the playoffs within two years of earning that distinction. The one team who bucked that trend, the 2011 Royals, took three years, reaching the World Series in 2014 and winning it in 2015. This history may prove to be of huge import for Seattle fans, who are now 20 years removed from their last playoff appearance.
  • Jon Heyman of MLB Network lent more credence to the idea that a universal DH will be included in the next CBA, stating (via Twitter) “Barring something totally unexpected, it can be assumed at this point that the universal DH will be in place in 2022”. Heyman adds that both the player’s union and league are in favor of implementing the rule, though there is some disagreement about which party will benefit more from having a DH in the National League. We polled readers back in December to gauge how a universal DH would be received, with 62% of readers expressing enthusiasm, 26% expressing disdain, and another 12% expressing indifference to the change.

Orioles Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles have shown a willingness to listen to trade offers on center fielder Cedric Mullins, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). The 27-year-old is coming off a 2021 campaign in which he was MLB’s only 30-homer, 30-stolen base player.

Mullins entered the season as an unestablished player, with just a .225/.290/.342 line across 418 plate appearances between 2018-20. He’d been regarded as a solid but not elite prospect, and it wasn’t clear entering 2021 that Mullins projected as a long-term regular, either in Baltimore or anyone else. Perhaps no one around the league has raised their stock more over the past eight months, though, as Mullins broke through with an All-Star showing that garnered him some down ballot MVP support.

The North Carolina native played in 159 games and tallied 675 plate appearances, mashing at a .291/.360/.518 clip. That’s 36 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, and Mullins added further value on the basepaths. In addition to his Silver Slugger winning offense, he was credited with ten Outs Above Average by Statcast in nearly 1300 innings in center field. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t as bullish on his outfield work, but it’s likely most clubs around the league will view Mullins as an average or better gloveman in center.

There’s no question he’ll be in high demand after that breakout campaign, although that doesn’t guarantee he’ll wind up on the move. There’s a difference between the O’s being willing to hear out offers on Mullins versus actively attempting to move him, and there’s no indication they’re doing the latter. Heyman suggests Baltimore has placed an “extremely high” asking price in talks, no surprise since there’s no pressing incentive for the Orioles to give the Campbell University product up.

Mullins only has between two and three years of major league service time. Barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement, he’ll remain under club control through the end of the 2025 season. Mullins hasn’t even yet qualified for arbitration, so he’ll play next season on a salary just above the league minimum. As with starter John Means — on whom the O’s are also reportedly fielding offers — general manager Mike Elias and his staff can set a high asking price and hold onto the player if no other clubs are willing to meet it. The ask on Mullins figures to be even a fair bit loftier than that on Means, considering that Mullins would seem to have less injury risk and comes with an additional year of contractual control.

Broadly speaking, a willingness to discuss Mullins in trade shouldn’t seem out of the ordinary. Very few players around the league would be absolutely untouchable in trade talks, since front offices have a responsibility to consider all avenues through which they can improve their club. That’s particularly true in the case of a rebuilding organization like the Orioles that stands little chance of competing in 2022 and could have its work cut for out it to contend for a playoff spot in 2023.

That said, the Orioles surely expect to contend before Mullins reaches free agency in 2025-26. Even coming out of a massive rebuild, they’ll need some core players to anchor their next competitive club. Teams understandably covet controllable, star position players in particular. That’ll lead to plenty of strong offers, but it also reduces the Orioles’ urgency to pull the trigger on any deal, since Mullins looks to be precisely the kind of player around whom a franchise can build.

Orioles GM Mike Elias On Deadline, Future

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com) just after their relatively inactive deadline. Baltimore are firmly entrenched in the “seller” category, with the worst record in the American League and only the Diamondbacks keeping them from being worst in all of MLB. But despite that, the club only made a pair of minor trades as the deadline approached, sending Freddy Galvis to the Phillies for Tyler Burch, and Shawn Armstrong to Tampa for cash considerations.

As Elias sees it, the reason for the lack of moves is because their players with the most trade appeal are actually building blocks. “We were very mindful that a lot of our best players that were in demand were players that are not pending free agents with the Orioles,” Elias said. “They’re players that are young and talented and we like and have future years with this club and project to be a part of this club when we hope to be a playoff contender.”

When asked specifically about John Means and Cedric Mullins, Elias said he was “pretty confident that we weren’t going to get very serious in talks with those players. We’re very, very impressed by what those guys are doing, and they’re here for a long time, and they play positions that are not easy to find guys to do what they do. It’s not a priority for us to look at those opportunities.”

Means will cross three years’ service time by the end of this season, setting him up for his first of three arbitration years. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season. Mullins on the other hand, has one extra year of control beyond that, slated to hit free agency in late 2025.

Getting back into contention within the next three to four years will be a challenge for the club, as they share a division with four very strong teams. Although Baltimore has a solid farm system, that doesn’t necessarily give them a leg up on their division mates. The Orioles came in seventh on Baseball America’s most recent organizational talent rankings. But two of the other AL East clubs, Tampa and Toronto, are ahead of them. And both of those clubs already have lots of young, controllable talent at the major league level. The Red Sox and Yankees have weaker systems on that list but are currently strong at the major league level and always have higher payrolls than Baltimore to attract and retain talent. Holding on to players like Means and Mullins also carries the risk that they may get hurt or not maintain their performance.

Elias did say that they were “pretty close” to trading away one of their relievers, but didn’t specify which one. Paul Fry and Tanner Scott are two lefties that seen their names surface in recent rumors, alongside righties Cole Sulser and Dillon Tate. All of those hurlers are controlled through at least 2024. And it seems in that the thinking with those arms was the same as with Means and Mullins, that it’s better to hold and try to build around those players before they reach free agency.

One player slated to reach free agency much sooner is Trey Mancini. But despite having just over a year of team control remaining, the idea of a Mancini trade seems unlikely for different reasons. Since missing the 2020 season dealing with colon cancer, Mancini has become a fan favorite in Baltimore and around the league. And trading him would certainly be a difficult sell to the Baltimore fans, who have had few things to feel good about in recent years. As Elias puts it, “I hope he’s here as long as possible and, ultimately, we’re going to take things as we come like baseball teams do in the major leagues and look at stuff and keep talking. He’s a very special part of this team, and he’s going to continue to be so, and we’re happy about that.”

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