Giants Considering Pete Alonso
The Giants already made one big infield addition by signing Willy Adames, and kept Matt Chapman off the free agent market entirely by signing the third baseman to a six-year, $151MM extension back in September. With the Giants still weighing big moves, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that “Pete Alonso is on their radar” as a significant upgrade to the first base/DH mix.
As it stands, LaMonte Wade Jr. will be getting the bulk of first base at-bats, as the left-handed hitting side of what will likely be a platoon situation. That said, reports have suggested San Francisco is open to moving Wade, and that the Giants had some interest in signing Paul Goldschmidt before Goldschmidt landed with the Yankees. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge is viewed as the long-term answer at first base, and with Eldridge making his Triple-A debut in 2024, a shorter-term signing like Goldschmidt made sense as a bridge at the position.
Adding Alonso would only somewhat change that direction. If Alonso took over the everyday first base role, Wade could be shifted into the part-time DH role, and Wade is a free agent next winter so he might not remain part of the Giants’ future plans. Eldridge played some outfield in 2023 but is largely viewed as a first baseman going forward, so he and Alonso could form a powerful first base/DH combo even if such an arrangement would lock down both positions for years to come.
There’s also a possibility that Eldridge could become a big trade chip the Giants can dangle to address other needs, or that Alonso wouldn’t necessarily be a long-term addition. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears from various executives around the league that Alonso’s next contract might involve an opt-out clause or two, thus allowing Alonso to re-enter the market potentially as early as the 2025-26 offseason. Alonso’s agent Scott Boras has included such opt-out provisions in several of his clients’ deals in recent years, in some cases creating an extra level of flexibility for teams and for players coming off less-than-ideal platform years.
It could be argued Alonso is coming off two relative down years, as he has a solid but unspectacular 121 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season. The first baseman slugged 80 homers and hit .229/.324/.480 in 1353 plate appearances over that span, while providing little value with his glove or on the basepaths. Clubs are increasingly wary about committing big money to first base-only players in general, and Alonso’s increasingly homer-heavy approach raises questions about his overall offensive value.
Oracle Park may not exactly be the best ballpark for a right-handed hitting slugger to re-establish his value, though Alonso’s options may be increasingly limited. The Yankees (Goldschmidt), Astros (Christian Walker), Diamondbacks (Josh Naylor), and Nationals (Nathaniel Lowe) have all addressed their needs at first base. MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern recently looked at Alonso’s market and cited the Giants along with the Reds, Tigers, Blue Jays, as possible darkhorse candidates for the slugger, along with the more obvious possibility that Alonso just re-signs with the Mets.
Indeed, most of the executives who spoke with Feinsand “believe an Alonso/Mets reunion is inevitable,” even if such a deal involves opt-out clauses. The Mets remain linked to both Alonso and Alex Bregman, leaving the team with an interesting choice of top-tier corner infielders since Mark Vientos can play first or third base depending on who is signed. (Or, it isn’t entirely out of the question that the aggressive Mets could sign both Bregman and Alonso, with Vientos moving to DH.) Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “a sizable gap” remains between Alonso and the Mets in their current negotiations.
Because both Adames and Alonso rejected qualifying offers, the Giants would have to surrender two more draft picks and another $1MM in international bonus pool money if they brought Alonso into the fold to join their new shortstop. This might not necessarily be an obstacle since the Giants already gave up two picks and $1MM to sign Chapman and Blake Snell (two other qualified free agents) last offseason. RosterResource estimates San Francisco for roughly a $167.1MM payroll and $207.5MM luxury tax number in 2025, so adding Alonso is feasible even if it remains unclear how much ownership is willing to spend on next year’s roster.
The Giants’ pursuit of Corbin Burnes signaled that the club was willing to make another splurge, though Slusser notes that they didn’t offer Burnes more than the $210MM over six years than the righty received from the Diamondbacks. Indeed, Slusser frames the Giants’ courtship of Burnes as fairly limited, writing that “San Francisco’s pursuit never advanced much beyond initial talks at the general manager meetings…and an offer made at that point did not get things off the ground.”
President of baseball operations Buster Posey addressed the Giants’ next steps in a text to The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, with Posey writing “We believe in our young arms, and feel like they are in a position to take some big steps forward. [We] will continue to look on the offensive side for players that give us a chance to score runs in multiple ways.”
Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+
Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.
Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.
Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.
It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.
Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.
The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.
That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.
San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).
The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.
The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.
Where Will Corbin Burnes End Up?
With Blake Snell and Max Fried off the board, Corbin Burnes stands alone at the top of the pitching market. There was some thought that the former Cy Young winner might sign within a day or two of Fried agreeing to an eight-year term at the Winter Meetings. That hasn’t happened, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if Burnes signs before league activity goes quiet with the holidays next week.
Thus far, the starting pitching class has outperformed expectations. That’s most true of Fried, whom few would’ve foreseen getting eight years or handily beating $200MM at the start of the offseason. With Fried securing $218MM, how much should one project upwards on Burnes? Every free agent projection would’ve had Burnes above Fried when the offseason got underway. Fried money feels like a floor for Burnes, whom MLBTR predicted for seven years and $200MM just six weeks ago.
That said, the Yankees and Mets were two of the most obvious on-paper fits at the start of the offseason. The Yankees can safely be ruled out after the Fried deal. The Mets are still in the market for starting pitching and have the payroll room to lurk as a threat on Burnes even after landing Juan Soto. Yet it seems the Mets’ focus for starting pitching has been on the middle tiers. They added Frankie Montas and converted Clay Holmes to the rotation, preferring more affordable upside plays than a quick strike for any of free agency’s top three arms. They’re reportedly still interested in re-signing Sean Manaea, which would very likely close the door on a Burnes acquisition.
Recent rumors have most prominently connected Burnes to a few teams: the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and (to a lesser extent) the Orioles. Boston is still engaged in the rotation market after landing Garrett Crochet last week. Trading for Crochet leaves them with ample payroll space — the former White Sox staff ace is projected for a meager $2.9MM arbitration salary — but could indicate that the Sox weren’t keen on the climbing cost for free agent starting pitching.
The Giants would benefit greatly from an ace they could plug alongside Logan Webb in the rotation to replace Snell’s production. Yet San Francisco has already made a pair of big investments ($151MM on the Matt Chapman extension, $182MM for Willy Adames) within the past few months. Does ownership have interest in a deal that should easily exceed those already significant contracts?
Depending on how one feels about the Andrés Giménez trade, it’s debatable whether the Blue Jays have made a splash acquisition this offseason. They were heavily involved on Soto and Fried but watched both players head elsewhere. Their front office could be most motivated to land a marquee free agent, but they’re also faced with some payroll questions. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote last week that the Jays landing Burnes “doesn’t seem especially likely,” suggesting the organization could prefer to focus on a bat as its biggest addition while looking for a cheaper rebound target on the rotation front.
Maybe that opens the opportunity for the incumbent Orioles to make a push. GM Mike Elias has said that the ownership change has allowed the O’s front office to explore the top of the rotation market. (They reportedly were involved on Snell, in particular.) Still, it’s fair to take a “believe it when I see it” approach for Baltimore. The O’s have brought up spending since David Rubenstein purchased the franchise in April. They took on Zach Eflin’s $18MM salary in a deadline trade with the Rays and signed Tyler O’Neill for three years and $49.5MM last week. Yet neither investment is close to what it’d take to retain Burnes.
How will the Burnes situation play out? Will there be a late push by a mystery team to land him, and how much will it take? Is he soon to be the latest beneficiary of a bullish rotation market, or is the number of teams willing to make a $200MM+ investment drying up?
Which Team Will Sign Corbin Burnes?
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Giants. 35% (4,487)
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Red Sox. 21% (2,665)
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Orioles. 14% (1,809)
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Blue Jays. 11% (1,478)
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Other (specify in comments). 10% (1,304)
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Mets. 9% (1,222)
Total votes: 12,965
What Will Burnes Be Guaranteed?
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$240MM - $259MM. 28% (2,346)
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$220MM - $239MM. 26% (2,186)
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$260MM - $279MM. 14% (1,204)
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$200MM - $219MM. 11% (942)
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$280MM - $299MM. 8% (625)
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$300MM or more. 6% (537)
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Less than $200MM. 6% (485)
Total votes: 8,325
Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits
The Blue Jays made a major splash during the Winter Meetings this past week, swinging a trade with the Guardians that sent slugger Spencer Horwitz (very briefly) to Cleveland in exchange for second baseman Andres Gimenez and right-hander Nick Sandlin. The club also reunited with right-hander Yimi Garcia on a two-year deal during the meetings to bolster their relief mix. Now that they’ve made those additions to the bullpen and infield Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote about the club’s needs going forward into the rest of the offseason, noting that the club is interested in adding an impactful slugger to the middle of the lineup to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as a starting pitcher who could push Yariel Rodriguez into the bullpen for the club.
It’s hardly a surprise that the club is looking to upgrade the roster in these areas given the players they’ve been connected to this winter. In the aftermath of the club’s failed pursuit of Juan Soto, Toronto has been name-checked as a potential suitor for corner outfield sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Nicholson-Smith opines that the outfield appears to be the “most logical” place for the club to add impact now that the addition of Gimenez has helped to solidify the club’s infield mix, particularly given the fact that center fielder Daulton Varsho is expected to start the 2025 season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff back in September.
With that said, Nicholson-Smith also suggests that the club could add a more defensively-limited player to their lineup as well after parting ways with a similarly limited player in Horwitz opened up additional DH reps. To that end, Nicholson-Smith reiterates the club’s interest in Hernandez while also floating two other names worth mentioning: free agent DH Joc Pederson and Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Nicholson-Smith lists Pederson alongside Hernandez and Corbin Burnes among free agents the Jays have spoken to this winter, and he reports that the club is “believed to have shown some interest” in Naylor during their negotiations with Cleveland surrounding the Gimenez trade.
It’s the first time that Toronto has been directly connected to Pederson this winter, though it was just one year ago that the club was reported to have “strong interest” in the slugger before he ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks later in the winter. The soon to be 33-year-old put up a strong season in Arizona in 2024, slashing .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in 449 trips to the plate. While Pederson’s massive platoon splits make him a somewhat lackluster option against opposing southpaws, the club’s deep group of young right-handed hitters like Leo Jimenez and Davis Schneider could be a natural fit to step into the lineup for him against tough lefties.
Naylor, meanwhile, is more of a true everyday player who sports a less significant platoon split and more defensive value but a less potent bat overall. The 27-year-old has some experience in the outfield corners but has primarily been a first baseman for the Guardians in recent year. 2024 saw Naylor slash a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) that was mostly in line with previous years, as he’s a 121 wRC+ hitter overall since becoming a full-time player in 2022. It’s unclear if the Jays have interest in Naylor even after completing the Gimenez deal, but he certainly makes sense as a trade candidate for the Guardians given the $12MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for the slugger in his final trip through arbitration before he reaches free agency next winter. Cleveland has well-regarded youngster Kyle Manzardo available to step in as the regular first baseman should Naylor be dealt at some point this winter.
As for pitching, Nicholson-Smith suggests that while landing Burnes in free agency “doesn’t seem especially likely,” the club pursuing an impact starter can’t be ruled out with left-hander Sean Manaea‘s name floated as one possible option. It’s unclear if the club is interested in Manaea specifically, but a pitcher of that caliber could solidify the club’s rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt while pushing Rodriguez to the bullpen after he posted a lackluster 90 ERA+ in 21 starts last year. Attractive as that may seem to Blue Jays fans, Nicholson-Smith cautions that it’s unclear whether the Jays would have the stomach to make an impact addition both to the rotation and the lineup this winter.
RosterResource puts the club’s luxury tax number at just over $228MM, meaning they have around $12MM remaining in the budget before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. Even on impact addition seems certain to carry them past that mark, but a second one would run the risk of pushing them into the uncharted territory of surpassing the second threshold, which sits at $261MM in 2025. Given that, Nicholson-Smith suggests the club may have to choose between targeting an impact slugger and an impact starter before making a lower-level addition to address the other need. Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are among the veteran sluggers who may be available for relatively cheap in free agency, while back-end starting options who wouldn’t break the bank include players like Michael Lorenzen and Colin Rea.
Latest On Giants, Corbin Burnes
With Max Fried joining the Yankees and Garrett Crochet landing with the Red Sox, all eyes are on Corbin Burnes. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was always, arguably, the best starter up for grabs this winter on either the free agent market or the trade block. Now, he might be the only ace-level pitcher left available.
On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested the Blue Jays and Giants would be the two most “aggressive” teams in pursuit of Burnes, though he described the Blue Jays as the favorites. His sources were “skeptical” that San Francisco could beat Toronto in a bidding war, given that the Giants already signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM contract earlier this month. This morning, however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants, not the Blue Jays, are the “heavy favorites” to sign the All-Star right-hander.
On a similar note, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey met with agent Scott Boras late on Tuesday evening, presumably to discuss his client Burnes. Yet, Heyman does not categorize the Giants as the clear favorites, writing that both Toronto and San Francisco are making a “strong push” for the ace. He adds that four more teams are still in the mix for Burnes’s services, including his former team, the Orioles. As Heyman mentions, the Yankees and Red Sox are also thought to be interested, at least to some degree, even after adding Fried and Crochet, respectively. However, it’s not clear who the sixth team Heyman refers to could be. The Mets might have seemed like another potential landing spot, especially before they signed Juan Soto, but Tim Healey of Newsday Sports reported on Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to sign Burnes.
Turning back to the Giants, this is a team that could certainly use another top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Their starters finished 18th in ERA and 29th in innings pitched this past season. Some of their underlying numbers were more promising, such as the ninth-best SIERA in MLB, but after losing Blake Snell, it’s hard to imagine the Giants rotation, as currently constructed, could perform better in 2025. Other than ace Logan Webb, no Giants starter threw more than 125 innings in 2024. Robbie Ray is a huge question mark after missing much of the past two seasons with injuries. Jordan Hicks ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately had to move back to the bullpen. He also dealt with shoulder issues in August and September. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong are promising young arms but have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Neither have Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, or Mason Black.
At the Winter Meetings, Posey told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he has “a lot of belief” in his young pitchers and expressed hope they will “take a big step forward” in 2025. Still, the Giants could use another arm to depend on at the top of the rotation. Other than Webb, it’s not clear who on this team could start in a postseason series. Needless to say, Burnes could fill that role. If not Burnes, Pavlovic suggests the Giants are “likely” to sign another veteran starter. They haven’t been linked to many others yet, although they expressed interest in NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano earlier this winter. According to Pavlovic, they were also in on Shane Bieber before he re-signed with the Guardians.
Red Sox Remain In Rotation Market Following Crochet Deal
The Red Sox landed the offseason’s top rotation trade candidate this afternoon. Even after acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a four-prospect package, Boston is on the hunt for starting pitching.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that the Sox remained in the rotation market after the Crochet acquisition (Bluesky link via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). The Globe’s Alex Speier reports (on X) that Boston is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets.
That could evidently take the form of either a free agent move or a trade. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that the Sox are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching. Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported on Monday that Seattle rebuffed interest in a framework that would’ve sent one of their young starters to the Sox for first baseman Triston Casas. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken repeatedly of the organization’s reluctance to even consider moving George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller.
Luis Castillo could be a different story. The Mariners are reportedly open to discussing Castillo, whom they owe $68.25MM over the next three seasons. The deal also has a vesting option for 2028. According to Mark Feinsand and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, there’s a belief within the industry that the righty is available (X link). There should be trade value, as Castillo’s deal aligns with what Luis Severino and Nathan Eovaldi have landed on three-year free agent deals. Yet Castillo isn’t as appealing as the M’s young core of much more affordable starters. That price tag surely plays into the M’s willingness to listen to offers, as they’re reportedly working with around $15-20MM in payroll room and could use multiple hitters.
It’s unlikely that the Mariners would trade Castillo strictly for prospects. They’d presumably need an MLB hitter to anchor the return. Casas might be too big an ask if they’re not sending one of their younger arms to Boston. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu is another potential Red Sox trade candidate, though the M’s have less need for an outfielder than they do for an impact bat in the corner infield like Casas.
Whether anything will come of the Sox’s pursuits remains to be seen. At the very least, it’s clear Breslow and his front office aren’t fully satisfied with a rotation comprising Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Lucas Giolito. They gave up a good package of young talent to get Crochet, but he’s eminently affordable from a financial perspective. Boston should have the flexibility to continue identifying free agent targets or take on a notable salary in trade.
Latest On Corbin Burnes
Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.
Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.
The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.
As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.
Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.
Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.
Red Sox Preparing Offer To Corbin Burnes
The Red Sox are preparing a formal contract offer to Corbin Burnes, write Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive. The former Cy Young winner is the final clear top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency.
Boston came up empty in their pursuit of Max Fried. While the Sox were one of Fried’s top suitors, they balked at the massive $218MM guarantee which the southpaw landed from their rivals. The Red Sox have also seen reported targets Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi head elsewhere. The supply is limiting if the Sox are going to follow through on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s stated goal of “raising the ceiling” in the rotation.
Burnes would obviously accomplish that. While the righty hasn’t missed as many bats over the past couple seasons as he did during his best years in Milwaukee, he’s still an ace. Burnes fired 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the Orioles in his platform year. He added eight innings with one run allowed in his lone postseason start. If the Red Sox were to land Burnes, they’d have one of the stronger rotations in MLB. He’d top a staff also including Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and a hopefully healthy Lucas Giolito.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes would receive a seven-year, $200MM commitment. That’ll almost certainly be light. Burnes was above Fried on virtually every contract prediction (MLBTR’s included). This has been a very strong market for starting pitchers. There’s a chance Burnes could land eight or even nine years on a deal that checks in between $250MM and $300MM at this point.
The Giants and Blue Jays are also known to be involved on Burnes. Baltimore has expressed a desire to keep him around, but that seems to be a longer shot. As a player who rejected a qualifying offer, he’d cost the Sox their second-highest draft pick and $500K of pool space from their 2026 international signing class.
Burnes isn’t the only qualified free agent (nor the lone high-profile Boras Corporation client) whom the Sox are pursuing. Boston is reportedly in the mix for Alex Bregman. In a separate column, McAdam writes that the third baseman is something of a divisive player in the Fenway Park offices. According to McAdam, manager Alex Cora and team president Sam Kennedy are more keen on a Bregman pursuit than Breslow happens to be. Cora is personally familiar with Bregman from his time as bench coach in Houston.
Whether Breslow is lower on Bregman as a player or simply prefers to focus his attention on starting pitching, that’s a potential complicating factor for free agency’s top remaining position player. The Sox presumably aren’t going to come away with both Burnes and Bregman. They could keep Rafael Devers at third base or pursue a Nolan Arenado trade if Bregman heads elsewhere. If they’re looking for a top-of-the-rotation arm and come up empty on Burnes, they’d likely go to the trade market. Reports have cast them more on the periphery of the Garrett Crochet bidding. The Sox floated the possibility of swapping Triston Casas for one of Seattle’s starters, but the Mariners rebuffed that interest while expressing a desire to hold their young pitching.
Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days
Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.
It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.
All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.
In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.
Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.
There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.
For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.
Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.
The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.
While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.
The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.
Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.
The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.
The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.
Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.
Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans
Juan Soto has officially departed the Bronx in favor of Queens, as the superstar slugger agreed to a 15-year deal with the Mets worth $765MM last night. Now that they know Soto will not be returning to the club in 2025, the Yankees are now poised to pivot towards a number of other notable free agent targets, spreading the money they would’ve spent on Soto around their roster. While the team is sure to have a number of irons in the fire as they attempt to reconstruct their roster without Soto in the mix, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the club is expected to make a “strong push” for free agent first baseman Christian Walker after previously expressing interest in him earlier this winter.
Walker, 34 in March, has been a fixture of the Diamondbacks lineup at first base since longtime franchise face Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season but has found a new gear in his early thirties. Over the past three seasons, Walker has slashed a strong .250/.322/.481 (120 wRC+) with a 20.8% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate, and 95 homers in 447 games for Arizona. He’s done that while providing high quality defense at first base, winning the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in each of the past three campaigns. That combination of solid offense and elite defense at the position have made Walker one of the league’s most valuable commodities at first base in recent years. His 10.8 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season is tied with Yandy Diaz for fifth-best in the majors among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Goldschmidt in that time. Meanwhile, Walker ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in wRC+ among qualified hitters at first base this year while trailing only Freeman, Harper, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in both categories.
It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could benefit from, but the Yankees in particular could use a big boost at first base. Incumbent first baseman Anthony Rizzo departed for free agency last month after a injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) in 92 games, and the club’s internal solutions at the position are lackluster. Rookie Ben Rice struggled to a 73 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action last year, while DJ LeMahieu was one of the worst hitters in baseball this past year with a .204/.269/.259 slash line during his age-35 season. Adding Walker would improve both the club’s offense and defense in a substantial way, offering a steady solution at first base.
What’s more, the $60MM price tag over three years that MLBTR predicted Walker would land at the outset of the offseason is hardly cost-prohibitive, and should leave the Yankees with plenty of financial flexibility to stay aggressive in upgrading other areas of the roster. Third base and the outfield appear to be the most obvious places for the club to upgrade, but a pursuit of a top-flight starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried can’t be ruled out either. The Yankees have reportedly met with both players this offseason and appear to have real interest in pairing one of the two remaining aces available in free agency with Gerrit Cole atop the club’s rotation. Of the two, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the club prefers Fried over Burnes. Adding either pitcher would surely require the club to trade at least one of their existing starters, with southpaw Nestor Cortes and veteran righty Marcus Stroman standing out as the most speculated-upon trade candidates.
Turning back to the lineup, the Yankees have reported interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, which MLBTR discussed earlier this morning. One other option to fill the club’s vacancy at the hot corner could be Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this morning that the Yankees are among a “select handful” of teams that the Cards have approached regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade, though it’s unclear to what level the Yankees reciprocated that interest in a deal if they did so at all. The 33-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal with the Cardinals, and his ability to be choosy about his destination has seemingly contributed to a “very limited” trade market for the veteran star.
Presumably, the Yankees are one of the teams Arenado would approve a trade to if the Cardinals are broaching the subject with the club. He could be a sensible fit for the Bronx given his strong defense at third base that would form an impressive left side of the infield alongside shortstop Anthony Volpe while allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second base. With that being said, there are questions about Arenado’s offense at this stage of his career. While he’s just two years removed from finishing as a finalist for the NL MVP award, those two seasons haven’t been kind to him as he slashed just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in a combined 247 games. He’s been approximately a three-win player over the past two seasons, but with three years remaining on his contract it’s fair to wonder if further regression on either side of the ball could be in Arenado’s future.
As for the outfield, the Yankees have been connected to Teoscar Hernandez as a potential back-up for Soto, with reporting yesterday indicating the club has “serious interest” in his services. Feinsand characterizes the club’s interest in Hernandez differently, however, reporting that the club’s talks with the slugger are “very preliminary” as the club has been focused on Soto to this point in the winter. Of course, now that Soto is off the board it’s easy to imagine the club’s interest in Hernandez becoming far more serious. While no player can replace Soto’s bat in the lineup and pairing another right-handed bat with Judge and Stanton in the middle of the Yankees lineup is far from ideal, Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ in 2024 would still offer the club a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat they’ll be lacking now that Soto has moved on.