Corbin Burnes To Miss Next Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Diamondbacks right-hander Corbin Burnes is battling inflammation in his right shoulder, as reported by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Piercoro adds that Arizona intends to scratch Burnes from his next start. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll ultimately require a stint on the injured list due to the issue, though Piecoro relays that manager Torey Lovullo told reporters before today’s game that they remain hopeful he’ll be back on the mound after just one missed start. The manager suggests that Burnes has been nagged by fatigue in his shoulder going back his last couple of starts, and that led to the club sending him for an MRI back in Arizona.
That MRI revealed “a little bit” of inflammation in Lovullo’s words, leading to the decision to skip the right-hander’s next start. Even as the Diamondbacks remain optimistic that Burnes will miss just one outing, the news is worrying for fans in the desert. After all, Arizona has fallen to fourth place in a hyper-competitive NL West division despite their solid enough 17-15 record. That record leaves them on the outside looking in for an NL Wild Card spot, behind the Padres, Giants, Phillies, and Reds in the standings aside from the division-leading Dodgers, Cubs, and Mets.
That lackluster pitching is a big reason for that middling record. While Arizona’s offense has been phenomenal so far, their run prevention has left something to be desired despite being a major strength on paper. The starting five’s 4.27 ERA is a bottom-ten figure in baseball this year, and Brandon Pfaadt is the only pitcher in the mix who has met expectations with a dazzling 2.78 ERA across six starts. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and especially Eduardo Rodriguez have all struggled so far this year.
Burnes, meanwhile, has a decent enough ERA of 3.58 that clocks in 18% better than league average by ERA+. That’s not quite what the Diamondbacks had in mind when they signed him to a six-year, $210MM deal over the winter, however, and his peripherals tell a more alarming story. His pedestrian 20.0% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and he’s paired it with a hefty 12.1% walk rate after having reliably excellent command in recent years. Burnes’s 5.08 FIP, 5.31 xERA, and 4.61 SIERA are all very worrisome, and suggest that even his mid-rotation production to this point in the year isn’t sustainable.
Perhaps this inflammation that he’s been battling is at least part of the explanation for the righty’s struggles. The 30-year-old hurler has made at least 32 starts in each of the past three seasons, and while that durability is admirable it’s the nature of pitching in this current era of baseball that hurlers need more rest than ever before as they push themselves for higher velocity and maximum spin efficiency. Perhaps this breather will be enough to calm the inflammation and get Burnes back on track, which would surely be a relief for Arizona as they fight to force their way back into the NL playoff picture after their surprising World Series run in 2023 and narrowly missing out on October last year.
Whether the inflammation forces Burnes to sit down for just one start or requires a stint on the injured list, the Diamondbacks are reasonably well-equipped to handle his absence even after losing sixth starter Jordan Montgomery to Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Ryne Nelson is in the bullpen as a long reliever but threw 68 pitches his last time out and is stretched out enough for a spot start or even to slide into the rotation longer-term as needed. He appears to be the most likely candidate to replace Burnes, though hurlers like Tommy Henry and Cristian Mena are also on the 40-man roster as potential depth options.
Blue Jays Notes: Burnes, Bregman, Scherzer, Varsho, Swanson, Burr
The Blue Jays were one of the kings of the rumor mill this winter, seemingly linked to just about every notable name on the free agent market. Corbin Burnes was one of those targets, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale sheds some light on the Jays’ pursuit in his notes column today while also countering his own past reporting on the matter.
Back in December, Nightengale wrote that the Jays and Giants offered Burnes more than the six-year, $210MM he received from the Diamondbacks. Burnes himself described Arizona’s offer as “by far the best offer that we had,” as Nightengale’s latest report notes that the “Giants’ pursuit of Burnes stopped before it really got started.” As for Toronto, Nightengale now writes that the Jays’ offer “was not only low, but was 75% deferred.”
While the exact dollar figures aren’t known, it seems possible that the Blue Jays might have technically offered more than $210MM, yet the heavy amount of deferred money involved lowered the contract’s current value to below what Burnes got from the D’Backs. It should be noted that Burnes’ Arizona deal also involves $64MM in deferrals, and the fact that Burnes can opt out of his deal after the 2026 also impacts the financial structure.
Alex Bregman was another name reportedly on the Blue Jays’ target list, yet Nightengale writes that “they didn’t make a single offer to Bregman, let alone engage with him.” The Jays entered the offseason without a clear answer at second or third base, so it made sense on paper that Toronto would at least check in on Bregman as a solution to the need at the hot corner. Instead, the Jays acquired Andres Gimenez to become the new everyday second baseman, and stuck with internal options (i.e. Will Wagner, Ernie Clement) to split time at third base.
One free agent Toronto did sign was Max Scherzer, who inked a one-year, $15.5MM contract. Unfortunately, the longtime star’s Jays debut ended after just three innings due to continued issues with his right thumb, leading to a trip to the 15-day injured list. The righty received a cortisone shot just under two weeks ago, and Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that a fresh set of imaging tests taken Friday didn’t reveal any damage.
While this represents some good news, both the team and Scherzer remain in day-to-day mode as they try to figure out the injury that has now bothered Scherzer for the better part of a year. Scherzer is playing catch and throwing off of flat ground for now, but has yet to bump up his throwing program to prepare for a return to action.
Moving onto some more injury updates, Daulton Varsho will start playing in full extended Spring Training games this coming week. Varsho underwent rotator cuff surgery last September and began the season on the 10-day injured list as he continued his rehab work. Throwing remains the final step in the process, as Varsho has yet to start making full throws from the outfield, but presumably he’ll check that box before returning to proper game action.
Despite his semi-injured status, Varsho still got a good deal of work in during the Jays’ actual Spring Training, as he had 37 plate appearances as a designated hitter. The fact that Varsho has been able to partake in other baseball activities beyond throwing could mean that it might not take him long to get fully ramped up for his eventual return to the Blue Jays’ active roster. He’ll still surely need a Triple-A rehab assignment, but it appears as though Varsho is on pace to meet his expected timeline of an IL activation before the end of April.
Erik Swanson is also on the road to recovery after a median nerve entrapment in his right arm led to a season-opening stint on the IL. Swanson will face live hitters this week and is expected to then start a minor league rehab assignment. Ryan Burr threw a bullpen session yesterday, in the latest step of his rehab after he also started the year on the 15-day IL due to shoulder fatigue.
Orioles Reportedly Offered Four-Year, $180MM Deal To Corbin Burnes
The Orioles made a four-year proposal to retain Corbin Burnes during free agency, the former Cy Young winner told reporters (relayed by Jake Rill of MLB.com). Burnes himself did not specify the dollar figure. However, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that Baltimore’s final offer was for $180MM over four seasons.
Burnes ended up with the Diamondbacks on a six-year, $210MM contract that allows him to opt out after the ’26 season. Geography was a major factor. Burnes is a California native who now lives in Scottsdale, Arizona. He told reporters in January that he preferred to pitch close to home, especially because he and his wife welcomed twins last June. Burnes and agent Scott Boras initiated conversations with D-Backs owner Ken Kendrick in late December and quickly hammered out the deal.
Could the Orioles have dissuaded him from going to Arizona if they’d made a longer offer? Burnes didn’t directly answer that, though he implied that it may not have mattered. “The dollars (in Arizona) were more than what they were (in Baltimore),” the righty said (video provided by Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun). “I just don’t think we matched up on the years it was going to take to get to a dollar amount for me to stay there. Now, I can’t guarantee I would have gone there had those offers come around just because … with us living here, if (the Diamondbacks) were going to be serious and have a fair offer, then this is where we were going to be. It’s tough to play the ‘what-if’ game.”
Nevertheless, Burnes said that Boras remained in negotiations with the Orioles until a few days before his agreement with the Snakes. He noted that the Arizona deal came together “within a matter of 72 hours,” so conversations with other clubs had stretched close to the end.
If the Orioles’ offer to Burnes did not include any deferred money, it would have featured a massive $45MM average annual value. That would have been the largest AAV for a pitcher (not counting Shohei Ohtani) and third overall behind the $51MM which Juan Soto received from the Mets and the approximate $46MM annual net present value on the Ohtani deal. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler hold the top annual salaries for non-Ohtani pitchers. They all landed in the $42-44MM range on three-year contracts.
Burnes took a good amount less on an annual basis. His $35MM per-year salary is tied for 14th overall, but the contract included $64MM in deferred money that dropped the NPV below $194MM (equivalent to just over $32MM per year). It contained a $10MM signing bonus and $30MM salaries ($10MM deferred) for the two seasons before the opt-out decision. Burnes has given up eight runs, six of them earned, over 9 1/3 innings through his first two starts in an Arizona uniform.
Orioles Notes: Baker, Rodriguez, Burnes
Orioles righty Bryan Baker stands as one of the more interesting out-of-options players in spring training this year. The 30-year-old righty is on the roster bubble in Baltimore after an ugly 5.01 ERA in 23 1/3 big league innings last season, but Baker averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and posted sharp strikeout and walk rates even amid that rocky showing. He’s thrown three perfect innings so far this spring and, despite last year’s ERA blip, carries a career 3.76 ERA in 139 MLB frames.
Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that scouts around the league have been “tracking” Baker throughout the spring and that the “market for him is developing.” However, Andrew Kittredge‘s health status could create a clearer path to the roster for Baker. The veteran Kittredge, who inked a one-year deal worth $10MM in Baltimore this offseason, has been dealing with a knee issue and is seeking multiple opinions.
Baker is one of six potential Orioles relievers who can’t be optioned to Triple-A, but he’s the least established of the bunch. None of Kittredge, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto, Cionel Perez or Albert Suarez is a candidate to be sent to the minors or jettisoned from the 40-man roster. The other spots in Baltimore’s bullpen are earmarked for Keegan Akin, Yennier Cano and returning closer Felix Bautista. Akin and Cano both enjoyed strong 2024 seasons. Bautista was one of the sport’s top relievers prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2023. If Kittredge requires an IL stint, that’d give the O’s an easy way to delay any tough decisions on Baker, but if the entire relief corps is healthy come Opening Day, Baker could be in a tough spot.
Elsewhere in camp for the O’s, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez downplayed his struggles and diminished velocity in his most recent start. Via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, the right-hander averaged just 93.2 mph on his heater in yesterday’s start against the Twins — three miles per hour shy of his 2024 average. Weyrich notes that Rodriguez hit 100 mph in his first spring outing last year, and the right-hander explained that he felt he came out too strong last year and felt some soreness as a result, so he’s building up more gradually.
Rodriguez noted that he felt “sluggish” and “flat” and struggled to spin the ball as he normally can, but he wasn’t concerned about the dip in velocity. That’s reassuring for Orioles fans, as Baltimore can ill afford any type of step back from the 25-year-old. Rodriguez started 20 games last year and recorded 116 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball, fanning 26.5% of opponents against a 7.3% walk rate. The O’s, of course, lost Corbin Burnes in free agency and didn’t add a big-name arm to replace him, instead opting to fill those innings with one-year deals for 41-year-old Charlie Morton ($15MM) and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM). The Orioles’ rotation of Zach Eflin, Rodriguez, Morton, Sugano and Dean Kremer could be solid, but there are plenty of question marks among the group as well.
Burnes discussed his decision to sign with the D-backs earlier in the offseason, but the right-hander chatted with Jack Vita for the Baltimore Sun earlier this week and spoke highly of the Orioles organization, touting their long-term outlook and noting that the club made a strong effort to re-sign him.
The former Cy Young winner described the O’s as “definitely pretty aggressive early on” as his free agency process began. While Burnes has previously stated that the Orioles didn’t submit a formal offer — just “some verbal stuff” — his comments this week strongly imply he still knew where they were willing to go in order to keep him. He suggested the O’s were “in the ballpark” and “competitive” in their pursuit, but Burnes again was clear in stating that the D-backs were his preference all throughout free agency, given his family residence in Arizona and the ability to be home with his wife and three young children.
D-backs Sticking To Five-Man Rotation
The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes further crowded a rotation that had at least six starters in the mix. While there’s been talk of a possible six-man rotation in Arizona since that Burnes deal, manager Torey Lovullo said at D-backs camp this week that team is not considering that at this point (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).
That leaves the Diamondbacks with seven starters for five spots: Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson. The first four are largely locked into place. Burnes and Gallen are Cy Young-caliber arms when healthy. Kelly has been a steady midrotation arm for the Snakes since signing out of the KBO in the 2018-19 offseason. Rodriguez’s first year in Arizona was marred by injury, but he’s signed three more years and has a lengthy track record.
Montgomery’s status in Arizona has been a talking point throughout the winter. The Diamondbacks signed him to a one-year, $25MM contract with a vesting $20MM player option for the 2025 season. The left-hander pitched enough to trigger that option but nowhere near well enough to decline it in favor of a return to the open market. Signing just days before Opening Day last season, Montgomery missed spring training, rushed through an accelerated ramp-up in Triple-A and never appeared to be himself. He pitched 117 innings but was rocked for a 6.23 earned run average with career-worst walk and strikeout rates.
D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called Montgomery’s performance out late in the season, publicly lamenting the role that he’d played in bringing the left-hander to his organization. “I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it,” Kendrick said in September. “They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.”
Pfaadt, 26, would give the D-backs an upside arm at the back of the staff. The former top prospect hasn’t yet found his stride over a full big league season but has shown glimpses of the potential that made him so well regarded. He looked to have found his stride last year, logging a 3.98 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through his first 24 starts, but Pfaadt was hit hard in late August and for much of September. He mixed in one late-season gem — seven innings, one run, 12 strikeouts in Milwaukee — but even with that showing still posted an ERA north of 7.00 over his final eight starts. He finished the year at a 4.71 mark but did pile up 181 2/3 innings.
Nelson, who turned 27 in December, made 27 appearances this past season — 25 of them starts — and recorded 150 2/3 innings of 4.24 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging-strike rate were below average (well below, with regard to the latter), but Nelson’s 5.4% walk rate was outstanding.
There are other options on the 40-man roster, but they’re likely to be viewed as depth candidates, barring a spring breakout. Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry and Blake Walston are all on the 40-man roster and have all made their big league debuts, but they’d likely only be called upon in the event of multiple injuries — at least with the current roster construction.
Kendrick’s comments on Montgomery led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade of this winter, but no such deal has come to fruition. It’s still possible the D-backs could find a taker for a portion of the contract or swap him out for a comparably priced veteran on an underwater deal (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte), but for now, Montgomery will get a full spring buildup and look to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season.
If the D-backs can find some kind of trade that sheds a portion of the Montgomery money, any savings could be reallocated to other needs. Most notably, they’ve been in the market for a closer throughout the winter but have yet to add an established ninth-inning arm. Arizona’s payroll is projected for a franchise-record $195MM, per RosterResource. It’s not clear whether Kendrick is willing to push things further after already ponying up to sign Burnes (six years, $210MM), acquire Josh Naylor in a trade (one year, $10.9MM) and re-sign Randal Grichuk (one year, $5MM). Barring the signing of a veteran like David Robertson or Kyle Finnegan, the D-backs will look inward and lean on A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez and Kevin Ginkel as their top late-inning arms.
Corbin Burnes Discusses Decision To Join Diamondbacks
Corbin Burnes‘ six-year, $210MM contract with the Diamondbacks stands out as perhaps the most surprising move of the 2024-25 offseason, as Arizona wasn’t viewed as a prime contender to either spend that much money, or even make a move for a frontline pitcher given the depth already present in the Snakes’ rotation.
As revealed today during Burnes’ introductory press conference, the concept of Burnes joining the D’Backs also seemed unlikely to all parties involved at the start of the offseason. Past reports suggested that it was Burnes and his agent Scott Boras who reached out to the D’Backs to ignite talks in late December and a deal was reached in fairly short order, and this version of events was largely supported in comments to media (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, and MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert) today.
Burnes and his family live in Scottsdale, and there was obvious appeal in playing so close to home, especially after Burnes’ wife Brooke gave birth to twin girls this past June. While Burnes had interest in playing for the Diamondbacks, there wasn’t much or any contact between the two sides until Boras contacted owner Ken Kendrick in December about the possibility of a signing. Boras and Kendrick seemingly handled this initial set of negotiations directly, as D’Backs GM Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye were both out of country on family vacations.
The result was the priciest contract in Diamondbacks franchise history, and a payroll that now sits at roughly $193.6MM, as per RosterResource‘s estimates. Kendrick admitted that the D’Backs were “stretching the budget” to make the Burnes deal work, but he pointed to such new revenue streams as a sponsored jersey patch, a ballpark sportsbook, and more concerts at Chase Field, plus the more traditional extra funds generated by increased attendance.
“All of those things drive the train, and then what do we do? Every dollar that comes in we’re going to reinvest it in ballplayers and not in the ownership, and we will always do that,” Kendrick said.
Burnes wasn’t entirely off the Diamondbacks’ radar at the start of the offseason, as Sawdaye said in an appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast today that the front office had “heard through intermediaries, and other players” that Burnes had interest in playing close to home. Internally, Sawdaye said “we had some discussion and it seemed financially it wasn’t going to be able to work or make sense.”
However, with Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall pushing things and Burnes remaining unsigned, Sawdaye said the front office essentially asked ” ‘well, what’s the price going to be?’ We’d be doing ourselves a disservice to a player who wants to come here, and obviously we should find out what that’s going to cost.”
As hefty as Burnes’ contract is, Boras said there was “no question” the right-hander turned down larger offers from other teams. Past reports indicated that the Blue Jays and possibly the Orioles were willing to top Arizona’s offer, though Burnes said today that he’d only received concrete offers from the Jays and Giants, plus “some verbal stuff with Baltimore and Boston, but nothing I had seen in writing.”
Verducci’s piece includes a longer breakdown of how Burnes’ free agent trip developed, with Toronto, Boston, and the Yankees all expressing interest right at the start of free agency. Various discussions took place with all parties over the next several weeks, with Corbin and Brooke Burnes prioritizing how signing with each prospective suitor would impact their young family’s day-to-day routine. The Yankees and Red Sox seemed to fall back in the chase after the teams had respectively landed Max Fried and Garrett Crochet to address their pitching needs, which helped clear the way for the D’Backs to emerge with a late bid.
MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Athletics and Brent Rooker agreeing to a five-year extension (1:40)
- The Dodgers signing Hyeseong Kim and trading Gavin Lux to the Reds (6:40)
- The Diamondbacks signing Corbin Burnes (14:45)
- Do the Blue Jays have unique challenges in signing free agents to come to another country? (16:30)
- Will Burnes opt out in two years and will the Diamondbacks trade a starter now? (21:05)
- The Yankees acquiring Cody Bellinger from the Cubs and signing Paul Goldschmidt (26:35)
- The Astros signing Christian Walker (34:40)
- The Mets signing Sean Manaea and Griffin Canning (39:15)
- The Red Sox signing Walker Buehler and Patrick Sandoval (43:35)
- The Phillies acquiring Jesús Luzardo and signing Max Kepler (50:35)
- The Orioles signing Charlie Morton (55:35)
- The Guardians trading Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and signing Carlos Santana (58:30)
- The Rangers trading Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals and signing Joc Pederson (1:01:25)
- The Nationals get Lowe as well as signing Josh Bell, Michael Soroka and Trevor Williams (1:05:30)
- The Tigers signing Gleyber Torres and shuffling their infield around (1:08:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
- Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
- Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Details On Corbin Burnes Contract
The Diamondbacks finalized their shocking six-year free agent deal with Corbin Burnes on Monday. The former Cy Young winner signed a $210MM contract, though deferrals in the $60MM range were known to have knocked down the net present value to an extent.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the deal’s specific breakdown. The contract officially contains $64MM in deferred money. Burnes will collect a $10MM signing bonus up front, which was first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. $10MM of his $30MM salaries over the next two seasons will be deferred. If he does not trigger an opt-out clause after the ’26 season, he’d be due $35MM annually between 2027-30. $11MM of those salaries will be deferred. According to Heyman, the contract comes with a net present value of roughly $193.76MM.
Burnes will be able to opt out with four years and $140MM remaining. Whether he does so will determine when he receives the deferred money. According to the Associated Press, Burnes would be owed either $10MM or $11MM installments between 2031-36 if he does not trigger the out clause. If he does opt out, he’d receive a pair of $10MM payments after the 2027 and ’28 seasons. (There’d only be $20MM in deferrals if he opts out after two years.) Burnes has full no-trade rights for the first two years. That would drop to a 14-team no-trade list for the final four seasons if he doesn’t opt out, per the AP.
Arizona now has a projected rotation featuring Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez. Righty Ryne Nelson has pitched well enough to hold a rotation job as well, so the Snakes could consider a six-man starting staff to open the year. Even that wouldn’t leave room for Jordan Montgomery, whose $22.5MM salary the D-Backs would be happy to offload. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported shortly after the Burnes agreement that the Snakes were not on the verge of any rotation trades. That’ll remain a major storyline for the club over the next couple months.
Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes
The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.
The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.
However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.
Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.
Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.
By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.
For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.
That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).
Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.
He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.
It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.
Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Diamondbacks Not Close To Any Pitching Trades
The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes added a new frontline arm to a rotation that was already operating at a surplus on paper. Burnes joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson, giving the Snakes an enviably deep group of starting pitchers. The D’backs had already been drawing trade interest in this group even before Burnes was added, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Burnes signing wasn’t made with any other pitching swaps immediately on the horizon.
According to Piecoro, no “other deals [are] lined up or even close” involving Arizona’s pitchers, as the Diamondbacks will continue to take a measured view of the market. A source tells Piecoro that the D’Backs will likely “spend the coming days fielding calls from teams still in the hunt for starters, including those that were in on Burnes.” The D’Backs aren’t in any particular rush to complete a trade any time soon, as having more than a full rotation in place before New Year’s Eve gives the club plenty of time to figure out the best possible offer.
It also isn’t entirely out of the question that the Diamondbacks stand pat on their starters, especially if an injury emerges to a starter during their offseason training, or during Spring Training. Kelly, Rodriguez, and Montgomery all missed significant time with injuries last season, so there is obvious value in having extra pitchers on hand should any more health issues create openings in the rotation. Operating with a six-man rotation is also a possibility, in order to keep everyone healthy and fresh for what the D’Backs hope can be an extended run through the playoffs.
Given how the Burnes deal reportedly came together just within the last week when Burnes himself approached the D’Backs, it isn’t surprising that the signing wasn’t part of an immediate plan to re-model the pitching staff. Such two-step transactions are usually hard to pull off, though the Diamondbacks were part of such a set of moves from the Guardians just last week — Arizona acquired Josh Naylor from the Guards, and Cleveland then signed Carlos Santana that same day to immediately fill Naylor’s spot as the everyday first baseman.
The fact that Burnes signed with a team that was seemingly already set for starting pitching gives GM Mike Hazen even more leverage in shopping his hurlers. Such known Burnes suitors like the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Giants are still in need of pitching, to say nothing of the many other starter-needy clubs on the market that weren’t willing or able to meet Burnes’ asking price.
Nothing seems to have changed in terms of which starters are most prominently on Arizona’s trade block. Gallen and Kelly are both free agents next winter but don’t seem likely to be dealt, as a team source told Piecoro that the team’s focus in on “trying to put the best team on the field in 2025.” Nelson is controlled through the 2027 season and Pfaadt through the 2029 season, so the Diamondbacks would probably only move either if a longer-term asset (likely a position player) could be obtained in return. The D’Backs might not mind moving the $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s contract, but the club would certainly have to sell low and eat some of that money in the wake of E-Rod’s injury-plagued down year.
That leaves Montgomery as still the chief candidate to be dealt before Opening Day. Montgomery’s trade value is also at a low ebb after his rough first year in Arizona, and his $22.5MM salary for the 2025 season. Owner Ken Kendrick’s public criticism of Montgomery following the season only increased the probability that the left-hander would be pitching elsewhere next year, yet again, the Burnes signing gives the D’Backs some flexibility in this regard. The Diamondbacks technically don’t have to trade Montgomery if an acceptable offer for another starter comes their way, and offers for Montgomery might improve if other teams become increasingly desperate to add pitching.