Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans
Juan Soto has officially departed the Bronx in favor of Queens, as the superstar slugger agreed to a 15-year deal with the Mets worth $765MM last night. Now that they know Soto will not be returning to the club in 2025, the Yankees are now poised to pivot towards a number of other notable free agent targets, spreading the money they would’ve spent on Soto around their roster. While the team is sure to have a number of irons in the fire as they attempt to reconstruct their roster without Soto in the mix, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the club is expected to make a “strong push” for free agent first baseman Christian Walker after previously expressing interest in him earlier this winter.
Walker, 34 in March, has been a fixture of the Diamondbacks lineup at first base since longtime franchise face Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season but has found a new gear in his early thirties. Over the past three seasons, Walker has slashed a strong .250/.322/.481 (120 wRC+) with a 20.8% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate, and 95 homers in 447 games for Arizona. He’s done that while providing high quality defense at first base, winning the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in each of the past three campaigns. That combination of solid offense and elite defense at the position have made Walker one of the league’s most valuable commodities at first base in recent years. His 10.8 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season is tied with Yandy Diaz for fifth-best in the majors among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Goldschmidt in that time. Meanwhile, Walker ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in wRC+ among qualified hitters at first base this year while trailing only Freeman, Harper, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in both categories.
It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could benefit from, but the Yankees in particular could use a big boost at first base. Incumbent first baseman Anthony Rizzo departed for free agency last month after a injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) in 92 games, and the club’s internal solutions at the position are lackluster. Rookie Ben Rice struggled to a 73 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action last year, while DJ LeMahieu was one of the worst hitters in baseball this past year with a .204/.269/.259 slash line during his age-35 season. Adding Walker would improve both the club’s offense and defense in a substantial way, offering a steady solution at first base.
What’s more, the $60MM price tag over three years that MLBTR predicted Walker would land at the outset of the offseason is hardly cost-prohibitive, and should leave the Yankees with plenty of financial flexibility to stay aggressive in upgrading other areas of the roster. Third base and the outfield appear to be the most obvious places for the club to upgrade, but a pursuit of a top-flight starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried can’t be ruled out either. The Yankees have reportedly met with both players this offseason and appear to have real interest in pairing one of the two remaining aces available in free agency with Gerrit Cole atop the club’s rotation. Of the two, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the club prefers Fried over Burnes. Adding either pitcher would surely require the club to trade at least one of their existing starters, with southpaw Nestor Cortes and veteran righty Marcus Stroman standing out as the most speculated-upon trade candidates.
Turning back to the lineup, the Yankees have reported interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, which MLBTR discussed earlier this morning. One other option to fill the club’s vacancy at the hot corner could be Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this morning that the Yankees are among a “select handful” of teams that the Cards have approached regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade, though it’s unclear to what level the Yankees reciprocated that interest in a deal if they did so at all. The 33-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal with the Cardinals, and his ability to be choosy about his destination has seemingly contributed to a “very limited” trade market for the veteran star.
Presumably, the Yankees are one of the teams Arenado would approve a trade to if the Cardinals are broaching the subject with the club. He could be a sensible fit for the Bronx given his strong defense at third base that would form an impressive left side of the infield alongside shortstop Anthony Volpe while allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second base. With that being said, there are questions about Arenado’s offense at this stage of his career. While he’s just two years removed from finishing as a finalist for the NL MVP award, those two seasons haven’t been kind to him as he slashed just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in a combined 247 games. He’s been approximately a three-win player over the past two seasons, but with three years remaining on his contract it’s fair to wonder if further regression on either side of the ball could be in Arenado’s future.
As for the outfield, the Yankees have been connected to Teoscar Hernandez as a potential back-up for Soto, with reporting yesterday indicating the club has “serious interest” in his services. Feinsand characterizes the club’s interest in Hernandez differently, however, reporting that the club’s talks with the slugger are “very preliminary” as the club has been focused on Soto to this point in the winter. Of course, now that Soto is off the board it’s easy to imagine the club’s interest in Hernandez becoming far more serious. While no player can replace Soto’s bat in the lineup and pairing another right-handed bat with Judge and Stanton in the middle of the Yankees lineup is far from ideal, Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ in 2024 would still offer the club a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat they’ll be lacking now that Soto has moved on.
Orioles Reportedly “Reluctant” To Pursue QO Starters From Other Clubs
The Orioles made their first major splash on the free agent market this evening when they agreed with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal. That signing addressed their desire to add a right-handed bat to the lineup following the departure of switch-hitting free agent Anthony Santander, who was their best hitter in the outfield against left-handed pitching. The club’s biggest need of the winter remains unaddressed, however: a top-of-the-rotation arm to fill the void left by Corbin Burnes when he elected free agency last month.
While the club has previously been connected to top-of-the-market hurlers including former Braves southpaw Max Fried, a report this afternoon from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic shed some light on the club’s strategy for this winter’s pitching market by noting that the club is “reluctant” to pursue qualified free agent pitchers from other clubs. That stance would seemingly exclude them from not only the Fried sweepstakes but also the market for Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, the latter of whom they were previously connected to this winter.
There’s still a number of interesting free agent starters available this winter who don’t fit that description, led by a reunion with Burnes. Re-signing Burnes wouldn’t cause the Orioles to lose a draft pick beyond the opportunity cost of not receiving the pick after the first round they’d be in line to receive should he land elsewhere, but Rosenthal and Sammon suggested the chances of Burnes returning to Baltimore seem “remote” at this point given the possibility that the winter’s #2 free agent becomes the center of attention for Juan Soto bidders who fail to land the superstar slugger. For the Orioles’ part, GM Mike Elias made clear during an appearance on MLB Network Radio last month that the club would “love” to bring Burnes back into the fold for 2025 and beyond.
Should they find themselves outbid for Burnes, however, he’s far from the only viable option to improve the club’s rotation without forfeiting a draft pick. Rosenthal and Sammon describe both veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and righty Jack Flaherty as more appealing to the Orioles than a pursuit of Fried, Manaea, or Pivetta. Of the two, they report that the Orioles appear to prefer Eovaldi after Flaherty’s disastrous run with Baltimore following the trade deadline back in 2023, where he surrendered a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work before turning things around with the Tigers and Dodgers this past year with a 3.17 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 28 starts.
Eovaldi also figures to be much cheaper than Flaherty this winter; on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $41MM contract for the veteran while predicting Flaherty would land $115MM over five years. Rosenthal and Sammon also suggest that Flaherty figures to land a contract in the four- to six-year range this winter, and while they don’t comment on Eovaldi’s expected contract it’s worth noting that deals of that length for a pitcher entering their age-35 season as Eovaldi is are all but unheard of in today’s game, with Jacob deGrom standing out as the notable exception to that rule. Eovaldi’s platform season saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 29 starts that don’t quite match up to Flaherty’s performance, though the veteran does offer a lengthy track record of mid-rotation success that compares favorably to Flaherty’s up-and-down career in terms of on-field results over the past half decade.
It also seems at least plausible that the Orioles could look to get creative as they search for rotation upgrades. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Baltimore was among the clubs that had interest in right-hander Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. While Holmes has been a reliever for the majority of his MLB career, the Mets signed him to pitch in their rotation and Rosenthal and Sammon indicated that Baltimore would’ve done the same had they landed him, though some of his other suitors planned to keep him in the relief role in which he turned in a dominant three-and-a-half year stretch with the Yankees. While it’s currently unclear if the club would consider any other free agent relief arms for a move to the rotation, both Michael Soroka and Jeff Hoffman have received buzz as potential starting pitching options this winter after successful runs in relief in 2024.
Blue Jays Recently Met With Corbin Burnes
The Blue Jays held a recent in-person meeting with free agent righty Corbin Burnes, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (video link). Toronto was already connected to Burnes earlier in the offseason, but an in-person meeting between the two parties is of some note all the same. Burnes is one of multiple high-end free agents linked to the Jays in recent weeks. Toronto is, of course, one of the remaining bidders for Juan Soto and has also been tied to lefty Max Fried, outfielder Anthony Santander, infielder Willy Adames and fellow infielder Alex Bregman.
There’s a pervading sense in the industry that the Jays are highly motivated, if not desperate to make a splash in the free agent and/or trade market this offseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are entering their final seasons of club control. Chris Bassitt is also a free agent next winter. Kevin Gausman is only signed through 2026. Meanwhile, team president Mark Shapiro is entering the final season of his contract, while general manager Ross Atkins is signed through 2026. They’ve now been atop the Jays’ baseball operations hierarchy for nearly a decade but haven’t won a postseason game since 2016 — their first year on the job. Speculation about the pair’s job security has continued to mount as the team has underperformed.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Jays put down more than $600MM for Soto and then turn to give Burnes would could be a $200MM+ deal of his own. More likely, the Jays are laying some groundwork for contingency efforts in the event that Soto spurns their offer for one of his other suitors in New York, Boston or Los Angeles. For the same $600MM+ that Soto will command, the Jays could potentially extend Guerrero, sign one of Burnes/Fried and also sign one of Adames/Bregman/Santander. There’s some inherent logic to diversifying the risk when talking about a sum of $600MM+, but it’s also true that players like Burnes, Fried, Adames, Santander and Bregman are also considerably older than the 26-year-old Soto and are likelier to begin declining sooner.
With regard to Burnes in particular, he’d be a clear upgrade to what’s already a talented Jays rotation. Toronto has Gausman, Bassitt, Jose Berrios in the top three spots. Burnes, who just pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the division-rival Orioles, could join that trio and make up one of the best one-through-four combinations in the sport. Right-handers Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez would then compete for the fifth spot. Rodriguez, notably, spent a portion of the ’24 season in the bullpen already. Toronto is generally lacking in experienced rotation depth, so adding a durable workhorse like Burnes — third in the majors in innings and fourth in ERA since 2020 — ought to hold extra appeal.
Burnes — or any of the free agents who rejected a qualifying offer — would require the forfeiture of at least the Blue Jays’ second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. The Jays reportedly ducked under the luxury tax threshold by a narrow margin this season, though final tax calculations haven’t yet been released. If they end up slightly over the line, they’d forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks and $1MM of international bonus pool space.
The Yankees also met with Burnes late last month. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner has also drawn interest from the Giants and Red Sox. The incumbent Orioles have said they’d love to keep Burnes, but it remains to be seen if new owner David Rubenstein will authorize the kind of spending necessary to retain him. If he does sign elsewhere, the O’s would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft, because Burnes rejected a $21.05MM qualifying offer. They’d receive the same compensation if Santander signs elsewhere after rejecting his own QO, potentially setting the Orioles up for a massive draft in 2025.
Yankees Recently Met With Max Fried, Corbin Burnes
The Yankees’ efforts to re-sign Juan Soto have dominated headlines in the Bronx this offseason, but they’re also laying the groundwork for other free agent possibilities. The Yankees held a 90-minute meeting with longtime Braves lefty Max Fried this week, as first reported by the YES Network’s Michael Kay, who adds that the talk went well and the two sides are expected to meet again. Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post also report that the two sides met, with the Yankees’ contingent consisting of GM Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, pitching coach Matt Blake and as many as six other team officials. Puma and Sherman further add that the Yankees met with Corbin Burnes late last month.
Soto, of course, remains the Yankees’ top focus. It seems unlikely that they’d sign him to what increasingly appears to be a $600MM+ contract and then put down more than $150MM on one of Fried or Burnes — though the Yanks certainly have the resources to do so. Still, it’s only natural for any Soto suitor to be doing homework on potential contingency plans in the event that he signs elsewhere. Loading up on high-end starting pitching and addressing the lineup in other ways would be one such possibility. (Notably, the Yankees have also recently been linked to infielder Willy Adames, who’s willing to play third base or second base with a new club.)
The Yankees already have one of the most expensive staffs in the sport. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman are owed a combined $81MM next year. Nestor Cortes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM. Righty Clarke Schmidt is projected at $3.5MM. Newly minted Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving either Stroman or Cortes this winter, both of which seem plausible. Adding someone the caliber of Fried of Burnes would make a trade elsewhere in the rotation a virtual inevitability.
Either Burnes or Fried would join Cole right atop what could be a powerhouse Yankees rotation. Both pitchers rejected qualifying offers from their former clubs, meaning both would cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest draft selections, in addition to $1MM of space from their 2025 bonus pool in international free agency. For a pitcher of either caliber, that’s a small price to pay.
Fried, 31 in January, has rattled off 659 innings of 2.81 ERA ball dating back to the 2020 season. He’s third among all qualified starting pitchers in ERA in that time, trailing only Brandon Woodruff (2.76) and Clayton Kershaw (2.79). Fried has thrown nearly 200 more innings than both those pitchers. His 2024 season wasn’t his best, but only relative to his lofty standards. He made 29 starts, totaling 174 1/3 innings, and notched a tidy 3.25 ERA.
Fried doesn’t miss bats like the prototypical ace but has a slightly better-than-average 23.6% strikeout rate over the past five seasons. He sports a strong 6.3% walk rate in that time and is among the game’s very best when it comes to minimizing hard contact and avoiding opponents’ barrels. He also racks up grounders at a plus rate (54.2% since 2020) — highlighted by a career-best 58.8% mark in 2024. Fried has generally been durable, although he was limited to 14 starts in 2023 due to a forearm strain that did not end up requiring surgery. He missed three starts in 2024 due to a nerve issue in that same forearm, but that’s ostensibly a different issue than the one that sidelined him in ’23.
Burnes is nearly a full year younger, having turned 30 about five weeks ago. He’s solidified himself as a true workhorse, ranking third in the majors in innings pitched over the past five seasons and sitting narrowly behind Fried with a fourth-ranked 2.88 ERA in that same span. Burnes was traded from the Brewers to the Orioles last offseason and proved himself against many of the very same AL East lineups he’d be facing as a Yankee. He made 32 starts and pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the O’s, adding eight innings of one-run excellence in Baltimore’s brief postseason foray.
Dominant as Burnes has been at times in his career, his recent work bears some resemblance to that of Fried. That’s not a bad thing, of course, but his once sky-high strikeout rate now sits at a roughly league-average rate (23.1% in 2024). Like Fried, he’s countered the diminished strikeout tendencies with sharp command and a knack for dodging hard contact. Burnes doesn’t generate grounders at the same level, but his 46.9% career mark and 2024’s 48.8% rate are both still comfortably above average.
The general thinking has been that Burnes will sign the largest contract of any pitcher this offseason. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell — who signed for five years and $182MM with the Dodgers (albeit with some deferrals) — and a year younger than Fried. His blend of durability and effectiveness is unmatched among this year’s crop of free agents. Fried, however, should command a deal well north of $100MM himself — quite possibly approaching or even exceeding the $162MM the Yankees promised to Rodon two winters ago.
The Yankees currently project for a payroll around $230MM, per RosterResource. They’re currently below the luxury tax threshold, but only nominally so. Even minor additions in free agency or on the trade market will push them into luxury territory. They’ve been a tax payor in each of the past three seasons, however, and their pursuits of various high-end free agents makes it clear they’re comfortable not only paying the tax for a fourth straight season but perhaps pushing into the highest tier of penalty again — at least for the 2025 season.
Managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has said that trotting out a payroll of that magnitude every season isn’t sustainable in the long run. However, that’s probably the reality for the immediate future, so long as the Yanks are paying Aaron Judge, Cole and Rodon a combined $103MM annually through 2028 (to say nothing of weighty commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Stroman and any forthcoming free agent/trade additions).
Giants Interested In Corbin Burnes
The Giants have already been linked to some prominent free agents this winter, and it appears as though Corbin Burnes is another name on the club’s list of targets. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that the Giants “are believed to have significant interest in Burnes,” and thus San Francisco joins the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Burnes’ former team the Orioles as clubs known to be pursuing the right-hander to some degree.
MLBTR projects Burnes to land a seven-year, $200MM deal as the top pitcher on the free agent market, and signing the hurler at such a price would be a fascinating move for a Giants club that is reportedly looking to reduce payroll. The Giants’ Opening Day payroll last season was roughly $208.1MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) and they currently have around $154.8MM on the books for 2025 according to RosterResource‘s calculations. Trading any of Mike Yastrzemski, Camilo Doval, LaMonte Wade Jr., Taylor Rogers or Tyler Rogers would free up some more money, but as it stands right now, there’s room for San Francisco to ink Burnes for something in the ballpark of a $28.5MM average annual value and still have space for more additions before reaching the 2024 payroll number.
The Giants also haven’t necessarily been acting like a team that is planning on limited spending. San Francisco has shown interest in two of the offseason’s bigger-name free agents in Willy Adames and now Burnes, plus the Giants had at least a check-in on Juan Soto‘s market. Ha-Seong Kim and Tomoyuki Sugano are two other notables on the team’s radar, among less-pricey options. And, of course, the Giants already made a big spending splurge before free agency even opened by keeping Matt Chapman off the market with a six-year, $151MM extension.
Buster Posey was reportedly heavily involved in the Chapman negotiations even before becoming the team’s new president of baseball operations, and those efforts to retain a prominent star seemingly indicated that Posey’s front office was prepared to take a more aggressive stance in trying to land top-shelf talent. Signing a Burnes or an Adames would finally put to rest the narrative that the organization is unable to attract star free agents, though it remains to be seen if these forays into the top of the 2024-25 free agent market are anything more than due diligence, if Giants ownership does want to limit spending.
Burnes has some West Coast ties, as he hails from Bakersfield, California and he played college ball at Saint Mary’s College of California in Moraga (about 40 minutes away from San Francisco). From a purely on-field perspective, there’s also a natural fit — Burnes would step right into Blake Snell‘s shoes as the new ace, teaming with Logan Webb to become one of the game’s better one-two rotation punches. Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray would each move a slot down in the rotation order, and San Francisco would gain some flexibility in deciding what to do with the fifth starter’s job. Any of Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, or top prospect Carson Whisenhunt could compete for the job in Spring Training, or Jordan Hicks could be given another shot at a starting role if the Giants don’t want to just keep him in the bullpen.
Since San Francisco exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season, they would pay an additional penalty for signing Burnes or any free agent that rejected a qualifying offer. The Giants would have to give up $1MM of funds from their international signing bonus pool, and also their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft. The club already gave up two picks (their second- and third-rounders) in the 2024 draft to sign Snell and Chapman last winter, as both players rejected qualifying offers before entering free agency.
The Best Fits For Corbin Burnes
Last week, MLBTR's Steve Adams ran through every team's chances of landing Juan Soto in a post for Front Office subscribers. In the wake of last night's Blake Snell deal, let's continue that exercise by examining where each club stands on the market's top pitcher.
With Snell off the board on a deferred $182MM deal, Corbin Burnes is the only remaining pitcher who might break the $200MM threshold. He just turned 30 and should be in line for seven or potentially eight years. Burnes hasn't been quite as dominant over the past two seasons as he was during the 2020-22 stretch. His strikeouts have trended down in consecutive years, settling at a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this past season. Burnes managed a 2.92 earned run average despite the drop in whiffs. He has an excellent durability record and has reached 32 starts in three straight seasons.
Burnes should at least easily beat the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured last winter. We predicted him for an even $200MM over seven seasons when we ranked him the top non-Soto free agent on our Top 50. Which teams are best positioned to make that kind of offer?
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Latest On Red Sox’ Rotation Plans
The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation this winter but it remains to be seen how exactly that will play out. They have previously been connected to top free agents such as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, as well as trade candidate Garrett Crochet.
This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox actually want to of those top free agents. Sean McAdam of MassLive reports that the Sox are continuing to keep tabs on the pitching market while engaging with Juan Soto. They did have some interest in lefty Yusei Kikuchi, though it’s unclear how strong that interest was and he now has an agreement with the Angels. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have pulled off the gas a bit there, with some unknown club getting “very aggressive” recently.
Very early in the offseason, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said the club would be looking to the “raise the ceiling” in the rotation and these pursuits all align with that goal. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long track records of major league success, with Burnes having a Cy Young award and Snell having two of them. Fried doesn’t have the hardware but does have a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet only just transitioned to the rotation in 2024 but did so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate in 146 innings.
Any one of those pitchers would be a nice upgrade for Boston or any other club, though that will also make them very popular. In addition to the Sox, those pitchers have been connected to clubs like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that also make sense, even if they haven’t been explicitly tied to those pitchers in rumors.
For the Sox to come away with two of those pitchers would make for quite an aggressive offseason, but that’s exactly what the club has been signaling. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have made comments suggesting the club is planning to act boldly this winter, with Kennedy recently saying that paying the competitive balance tax is on the table. Many fans of the club will bring up last year’s “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner and how those didn’t precede much action last winter, but the club is being more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said the goal is to field a club capable of winning 90 to 95 games and taking the division.
Spending money on free agents is one way they could go about accomplishing that. RosterResource projects the 2025 club for a payroll of $138MM, well below their $184MM spending from 2024, which was itself a drop from what they spent in the previous decade. RR pegs the club’s CBT number at $171MM, which is $70MM below the lowest threshold.
There’s plenty of room in there for two notable contracts, though successfully signing Soto would obviously completely change the calculus, given the expectation that he’ll sign a record-setting contract. Leaving that aside for now, big contracts for two of the big free agent starters is a feasible outcome. As part of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, each of Burnes, Fried and Snell were projected for contracts with average annual values between $26MM and $32MM. Putting two of those onto Boston’s payroll still wouldn’t even get them to the CBT line. They will presumably also make additions to the bullpen and maybe the position player group as well, but with a willingness to cross the line, all sorts of possibilities could be on the table for them.
Crochet would be far cheaper from a financial perspective, with the biggest cost coming in the form of prospect capital. Since he has spent so much of his career either working in relief or injured, he is down to two years of club control but hasn’t been able to raise his salary very high through the arbitration process. He made just $800K in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to just $2.9MM in 2025. He would be due another raise in 2026 before he’s slated to become a free agent.
Two years of an ace-caliber pitcher for that kind of money is tremendous value, which is why Crochet figures to be very popular in trade talks. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could certainly get a deal done if they wanted to, though it seems some mystery club has pulled ahead of them, per McAdam’s reporting.
For now, the Boston rotation projects to be fronted by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024 but may have run out of gas, as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 mark in the second. Bello and Crawford are each coming off decent but not outstanding seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35-4.50 range. Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix in 2025 but they are fairly unknown quantities right now as each underwent internal brace surgery in 2024.
Adding to that group would improve Boston’s chances in 2025 while bumping guys like Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester to depth roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.
The interest in Kikuchi suggests that the Sox are also open to some of mid-market options. With Kikuchi now gone, some of the other names that could be in line for somewhat similar deals include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and old friend Nick Pivetta.
The qualifying offer will likely be a factor, depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible to receive a QO, Snell and Eovaldi because they had already received one and Flaherty because he was traded midseason. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino rejected QOs, meaning the Sox would have to forfeit their second-best pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international bonus pool space to sign them. Pivetta rejected a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they stand to receive a compensation pick just ahead of the third round if he signs elsewhere, though they would not receive that pick if they ultimately re-sign him.
Blue Jays Interested In Anthony Santander, Corbin Burnes
The Blue Jays are interested free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale also mentions that the club is pursuing top pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The club has previously been connected to top free agent starters such as Fried and Blake Snell in recent weeks, so Burnes being on the list as well is aligned with those interests.
The connection with Santander is a sensible one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to sign Santander when our Top 50 Free Agents list came out earlier this month. The Jays are a sensible fit for an outfielder and a potent bat, two boxes that would be checked by Santander.
Right now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the two established big leaguers in their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgery in September and it’s possible that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years old and has seen his wRC+ decline for five straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 but that number has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 in recent years.
In addition to those two, the Jays have plenty of other theoretical options to take playing time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield options on the 40-man roster, but there’s not much certainty there. Schneider is the only one with more than 81 big league games on his track record and he’s coming off a frustrating season. In short, there’s plenty of room for the Jays to make an external addition.
More broadly, some home run pop would be welcome in the lineup. The Jays were middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ and on-base percentage in 2024 but were 26th in the majors in terms of home runs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Only six guys on the club got to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the only Blue Jay to get to 20 dingers on the year.
Santander can certainly provide that power, having just hit 44 home runs this past year. With 105 homers over the past three seasons, he’s sixth in the majors for that time frame behind star sluggers Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the right side, such as Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting ability likely adds to the appeal. He’s not a great defender but he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the past three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which could allow them to limit the downside of his glovework.
It seems fair to conclude that Santander would be a fallback plan in the event the Jays don’t succeed in landing Juan Soto. The Jays are one of the clubs still plausibly in the mix for Soto, with offers expected to come in this week.
Soto ticks a lot of the same boxes as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with power, but he’s the more attractive free agent for a few reasons. Soto is far younger, as he is now 26 while Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye at the plate is also in a different stratosphere compared to Santander. Soto’s 18.8% walk rate in his career is roughly double a normal league average and higher than his 17% strikeout rate. Santander, meanwhile, takes a free pass at a subpar 7.3% clip.
Based on those differences, Soto is going to be Plan A for a lot of clubs, who will then view Santander as a potential safety alongside other free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. While MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM guarantee, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over four years, obviously far more affordable.
Santander has been connected to the Yankees this winter as one of many players the Yanks could turn to if they don’t get Soto and the Jays likely view their situation similarly. Soto is widely expected to secure a record-breaking contract of some kind, so teams will naturally want to assess their payroll ledgers and consider the domino effects of such a contract before pivoting to other moves.
On the pitching side, the Jays have been connected to a few starting pitchers already, as mentioned. The Jays have a veteran front three in their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt all under contract for 2025. Bowden Francis seems to have earned a rotation gig with his strong second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss, but Rodríguez also has plenty of relief experience and could be in the bullpen. Bloss still has options and limited experience, not having thrown much in the majors nor the minors.
Adding a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would obviously strengthen the group. Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five years, though he hasn’t been quite as dominant over the past two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run average, 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. In the two most recent seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, with his strikeout rate falling to 24.3%.
That’s a bit of a concern but Burnes is still arguably the top pitcher available in free agency this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over five and Fried at $156MM over six.
There are many ways it could play out but it seems the Jays are setting their sights high after missing out on Ohtani last winter and then having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s also been suggested that the Jays could be quite aggressive this offseason since there are a few potential pivot points coming up. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated for free agency for 2025, while team president Mark Shapiro and manager John Schneider are each going into the final years of their respective deals as well. General manager Ross Atkins is under contract through 2026 though it’s been suggested that he may be under pressure to deliver in the upcoming season in order to stick around.
The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource currently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had previously said he didn’t expect the club’s payroll to significantly increase or decrease relative to 2024, so the Jays could have something in the vicinity of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.
Some reporting, including from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to ownership perhaps having a Soto and non-Soto budget. The club was apparently willing to go to greater financial extremes to sign Ohtani last winter but didn’t end up redistributing that money to other players after he signed with the Dodgers. Similarly, the payroll ceiling could be moved up to accommodate a Soto deal but not otherwise.
Regardless of how much money they end up spending this winter, draft pick forfeiture will be another cost the club will have to consider. Each of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying offer, as did other potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to receive a QO this offseason because he already rejected one a year ago.
The Jays are believed to have just snuck under the competitive balance tax in 2024 by trading away some veterans at the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. A tax-paying club has to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest pick in the next draft. If the Jays did indeed go under the CBT line in 2024, those penalties will instead be $500K of pool space and just the second-best draft pick. In recent years, the Jays have been willing to sign players who rejected qualifying offers, doing so with both Springer and Bassitt.
Red Sox Interested In Corbin Burnes
The Red Sox have already been linked to a wide range of big-name free agents this winter, including most of the top available pitchers. It comes as no surprise that Corbin Burnes also appears to be on Boston’s radar, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are “in on” Burnes.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said earlier this month at the GM Meetings that the Red Sox “need to raise the ceiling of the rotation” by adding a front-of-the-rotation No. 1 starter type. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello project as the top three members of Boston’s current pitching staff, Lucas Giolito is expected to be back from an internal brace surgery relatively close to the start of the season, and the likes of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, or Quinn Priester are the top candidates for the fifth’s starter role.
Adding a pitcher like Burnes naturally makes that group much stronger, as suddenly the Red Sox would have an ace to push everyone down one slot in the rotation, and the younger starters become key depth options if Giolito has any setbacks (or if any of the starters run into injury problems). In theory, the Sox could even look to turn one of the younger starters into a trade chip, even if it’s probably likelier that Boston just retains all of its pitchers just for the sake of having as much depth as possible.
The Red Sox to have interest in Garrett Crochet‘s market, so it is possible the Sox will address their rotation needs via trade rather than via free agency. Boston’s relatively limited free agent spending in recent years has been well-documented, as Trevor Story‘s six-year, $140MM contract is the only nine-figure free agent deal the Red Sox have finalized in the last six offseasons. That said, the Sox have explored so many premium free agents this winter that it appears the team is again willing to shop on the top shelf of the market — four non-winning records in the last five seasons has undoubtedly spurred some extra aggressiveness.
Burnes is ranked behind only Juan Soto on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents in this year’s class, and the right-hander is projected for a seven-year, $200MM pact. Just a month removed from his 30th birthday, Burnes hits the open market on the heels of four straight All-Star appearances, and five straight top-eight finishes in the NL and AL Cy Young races. Burnes took the Cy home in 2021 when he posted a Major League-leading 2.43 ERA in 167 innings with the Brewers.
That innings total was actually the lowest of Burnes’ last four seasons, as he has averaged 197 frames over the 2022-24 seasons. Beyond the durability, Burnes has a 3.08 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate over the last three seasons, as he remained productive in a new environment after the Brewers traded him to the Orioles last offseason. Burnes’ 23.1% strikeout rate this season was only a tick above league average, but the rest of his Statcast metrics were impressive, and he added a 48.2% grounder rate to boot.
Because Burnes rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer, any team that signs him would have to face some type of penalty. In Boston’s case, they would have to surrender $500K in international signing pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2025 draft. This might be a relatively acceptable loss for the Red Sox, especially since they’d be getting a compensatory pick of their own just before the start of the third round if Nick Pivetta (their own qualified free agent) signed elsewhere.
Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher
The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.
It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.
For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.
Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.
There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.
Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).
The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.
Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.
All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.
It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.
There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.