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Rosenthal On Freeman, Padres, Kemp, Cubs

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This afternoon, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports released a news-filled column with rumblings from around the league.  The whole article is worth a read, but here’s a look at some of the highlights:

  • The Braves are shopping first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to officials from three different clubs that have spoken with Rosenthal.  One of Rosenthal’s sources added that the possibility of Freeman getting traded was “the talk of the [Arizona] Fall League” among scouts earlier this month.  Freeman’s salary is set to rise from $12MM in 2016 to $20.5MM in ’17 and the Braves might not want to pay out those salaries as they look to rebuild.  After trading shortstop Andrelton Simmons, it’s clear that the Braves are not too fearful of the fan backlash that comes from trading star players.
  • Another official asserts that the Braves are “shopping everyone owed money.”  That could mean that the likes of right-hander Julio Teheran, right fielder Nick Markakis, and center fielder Cameron Maybin are for sale.  Earlier today, we learned that some folks within the Orioles organization would be open to a reunion with Markakis.  After a down year, Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that there’s a “good chance” that he would be made available.
  • Sources tell Rosenthal that the Braves “are talking to a number of…non-compensation free agents, including some veteran relievers.”  Ultimately, Rosenthal writes, it’s hard to tell what the Braves’ goal is in 2016.  In the end, the gameplan might be to sell off Freeman and Teheran, land even more prospects, and land a top choice in the 2017 draft.
  • The Padres are shopping right-hander Tyson Ross and outfielder Matt Kemp, major league sources tell Rosenthal.  Kemp is owed $86MM over the next four years and Rosenthal wonders aloud if the two players could be packaged together in order to facilitate a deal.  Ross, 29 in April, is under club control for two more seasons.  In 2015, he pitched to a 3.26 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 33 starts.  Kemp, meanwhile, posted a .265/.312/.443 slash line that was below his career average with 23 homers in 2015 while playing poor defensively.
  • Sources say that the Cubs will “at least explore” the trade interest they are getting in right fielder Jorge Soler and infielder Javier Baez, Rosenthal writes.  Meanwhile, the Cubs do not intend to move third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell or left fielder Kyle Schwarber.  If the Cubs were to move Soler or Baez, they would likely seek their pitching equivalent, meaning a player with similar service time and talent that’s roughly the same age.
  • The Rays are getting bites on relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger, particularly after the Craig Kimbrel deal, according to sources.  Furthermore, teams are also zeroing in on Rays starters.

More Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Deal

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Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Red Sox’ big move to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. Here are a few more that have trickled in throughout the day.

  • As noted in our previous post, reviews of the Red Sox’ end of the deal by outside analysts have not all been enthusiastic. But CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam collected a number of takes from scouts and evaluators within the game who view the Sox’ decision to trade four prospects (including two highly rated ones in Margot and Guerra) somewhat more favorably. “I like Margot and Guerra. [They’re] middle-of-the-diamond kids with upside, (but) I doubt either becomes Betts or Bogaerts,” says one NL scout. “Prospects are nice, but in that market, give me Brady as QB over [Marcus] Mariota.” An NL evaluator points out that the Sox avoided giving up their very best prospects, like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Not everyone loved the deal from Boston’s perspective, however. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski “is all about the short term and this trade made sense from that perspective,” says an MLB exec. “But if you do too many of the deals, you wake up in a few years like the Phillies … or the Tigers.”
  • One potential reason the Red Sox felt outfielder Margot was expendable was the presence of 2015 top draft choice Andrew Benintendi, who could move through the minors quickly, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. In an accompanying article, MacPherson compares Benintendi to Mets rookie Michael Conforto, who rocketed through the minors, and notes that Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie all moved quickly through the Sox’ system after being drafted out of college, as Benintendi was. Benintendi hit .313/.416/.556 across two levels in his first taste of the minors this summer.
  • The Reds don’t feel the Padres’ trade of Kimbrel will have much effect on the market for Aroldis Chapman, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. Chapman only has one year of control remaining, while Kimbrel has three, so although both are top-flight closers, they represent somewhat different types of commodities. “Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control,” says new Reds GM Dick Williams. “We didn’t feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”

Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Trade

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Here are a few notes on the Red Sox’ acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Padres last night for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.

  • The trade is likely to represent the Red Sox’ biggest trade of the offseason, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says (via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox still need a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they’re likely to pursue that kind of player via the free agent market, Dombrowski tells reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “My thought process is most likely any acquisition we’d make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned,” Dombrowski. “You never know, but that would be my guess.” Lauber does note that the team has spoken with executives from other teams about potential trade acquisitions, but the Athletics don’t seem inclined to trade Sonny Gray, and ditto with the White Sox and Chris Sale. That could mean the Red Sox sign David Price, Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.
  • The Red Sox’ decision to deal four good prospects for Kimbrel suggests a change in the team’s approach, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Former GM Ben Cherington built up talent in the Sox’ farm system but would probably have been reluctant to make such an aggressive trade. The Red Sox pursuing top free agent pitchers like Price, too, would have been unlikely under Cherington.
  • Trading so many prospects so early in his tenure represents a risk for Dombrowski, MacPherson writes. MacPherson cites Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was new in town a few years back when his team sent a package that included DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for infielder Ian Stewart. “Those kind of mistakes happen when a regime comes in and they don’t know the guys as well,” says Hoyer. “They’re relying more on internal evaluations and scouting reports, third-hand information. Anytime you go to a new organization, those are your risks — and there are risks of being inactive because you’re worried about making mistakes, too.”
  • The Kimbrel deal was exactly the kind of trade Dombrowski was hired to make, writes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham notes that many commentators (like FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and ESPN Insider’s Keith Law, for example) disliked the trade from the Red Sox’ perspective, but after two straight losing seasons, the Sox have tickets to sell, and Kimbrel will help sell them. For the Red Sox, prospects like Margot and Guerra were best viewed as trade chips.

Red Sox Acquire Craig Kimbrel

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The Red Sox have acquired star closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres. It’s a stunning move for new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose club will now have both Kimbrel and ace reliever Koji Uehara to lock down the late innings.

Aug 10, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher <a rel=

There’s a significant haul going back to San Diego. Top outfield prospect Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje, and lefty Logan Allen make up the return. All four players rated among the thirty best Red Sox prospects in MLB.com’s latest ranking, with Margot (#25) and Guerra (#76) also checking in among the top 100 prospects league-wide.

Kimbrel, 27, has long been one of the game’s very best pen arms. Though he is no longer quite as mind-bogglingly dominant as he was back in 2012, he’s still an ace reliever of the highest caliber. Last year, he worked to a 2.58 ERA over 59 1/3 innings, with 13.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Those were excellent numbers, of course, but didn’t really come close to what he’d done to that point, as he carried a lifetime 1.43 ERA into the season.

To a large extent, the fall-off (if you can really call it that) was driven by a jump in Kimbrel’s home run proneness, as he allowed career highs of 0.91 HR/9 and a 13.6% HR/FB rate. But basically all other relevant markers stayed constant. The batted-ball profile of opposing hitters  appears to be in line with prior seasons. And Kimbrel not only maintained his average fastball velocity, but bumped it to a career-high of 97.3 mph.

Boston will pick up three years of control over Kimbrel. The contract includes a $24MM guarantee over the next two seasons and a $13MM club option in 2018 that carries a $1MM buyout. The Sox will be responsible for the entirety of Kimbrel’s remaining salary in the deal.

It remains to be seen what the move means for the rest of Boston’s offseason, but at first glance, it makes free agency appear the likelier route to add a major starting pitcher. Of course, the Sox still have plenty of prospects to deal, and could still consider dealing young MLB-level players like Jackie Bradley, so there are still plenty of options.

We’ve already seen San Diego GM A.J. Preller swing huge deals on the buyer’s side, and now we know he can part with major assets, too. The Pads had already shipped out another established late-inning arm, Joaquin Benoit, during last week’s GM Meetings. It looks to be another offseason of change for the Padres.

Naturally, the first thought upon hearing about the deal goes to the swap that brought Kimbrel to the Padres on the eve of Opening Day 2015. San Diego was able to get him while parting only with a good-but-not-great pitching prospect in Matt Wisler, young outfielder Jordan Paroubeck, and a competitive balance draft pick. Of course, that deal also included a whole lot of financial shuffling — Melvin Upton to the Pads, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin to the Braves — that left San Diego with more than $20MM in additional obligations.

That largely explains the differences in the returns, but there’s an argument to be made that Preller did quite well in the overall calculus (while also getting a season of Kimbrel in the 9th inning). After all, the group of players in tonight’s trade could be special.

Margot is arguably the headliner. The 21-year-old now figures to be the Friars’ long-term center fielder and isn’t terribly far away from commanding a shot in the majors. His power is still developing, but Margot has shown the ability to tally in the double digits over a full season (2014) and swiped 39 bags last year. He struck out only 51 times in 480 plate appearances last year, slashing a solid .276/.324/.419 split between High-A and Double-A.

Guerra, too, is a major piece. As Baseball America’s Josh Norris writes, he’s an outstanding defender who showed surprising power last season, which significantly raised his prospect stock. While it’s far from certain that he’ll remain a 15-homer threat, and he’s somewhat strikeout-prone, the 20-year-old nevertheless has immense promise.

The other two pieces in this deal are hardly throw-ins. Asuaje is already 24, and doesn’t have outstanding physical tools or outstanding power or speed, per MLB.com. But he’s shown a very promising bat and certainly seems on course to become a contributor in the majors.

Then, there’s the 18-year-old Allen, who was only able to be dealt because of the rule changes that occurred after last year’s Trea Turner deal. Taken in the eighth round of this summer’s draft and inked to an above-slot bonus, the southpaw is said to have a fair bit of polish for his age to go with an increasingly impressive arsenal.

It remains to be seen, of course, how the Pads move forward after parting with two most established relievers. This was a pure prospect move, as none of the four acquired youngsters figure to be ready in 2016. Notably, though, the two early-offseason trades have opened just under $18.5MM in payroll that otherwise would have been tied up in the pen. That’s a huge amount of additional space to work with for a team that only cracked $100MM in Opening Day payroll last year, and certainly opens up the possibility of more significant free agent involvement.

In large part, one’s assessment of the deal depends upon how one feels about reliever valuation. Kimbrel is obviously capable of delivering huge value from the back of the pen, but he’s only throwing a third or less of the innings of a starter. As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs recently discussed, there could be some value that WAR is missing in weighing elite pen arms. Kimbrel has been a two-to-three win annual pitcher for most of his career, though he’s separated from the top end of that range by a few years. As you start to slide that number up, he looks more and more like an upper-middle rotation starter in terms of overall value. It’s an open and fascinating question — and one that Dombrowski, at least, already appears to have answered.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the trade of Kimbrel on Twitter. The return was reported by Josh Norris of Baseball America (Twitter links), Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter), and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted the salary details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Relief Market Notes: Giles, Soria, D’Backs, Tigers, Braves

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Ken Giles is drawing quite a bit of trade interest in the early stages of the offseason, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Salisbury asked Phillies GM Matt Klentak if he’d be open to moving Giles, despite the fact that he can be controlled through the 2020 season, to which Klentak somewhat diplomatically replied that while it’s “not a goal” to move Giles, he avoids operating in absolutes and can’t definitively rule anything out. Klentak didn’t sound like a GM that is anxious to trade such a talented, controllable arm, though. “I think it’s a little different when you’re talking about a guy with one year of service time,” he explained. “If you were talking about a pending free agent then, yeah, that might be a slightly different situation. But Ken Giles, if he’s here, can very easily be a part of our future, so I think we have to account for that in our thinking.” Klentak added that it’s important, from a morale standpoint, to “win the games we are in a position to win,” emphasizing that a strong bullpen is key to that thinking. I’ve personally written in the past that I think it makes sense for Philadelphia to shop Giles, as he’ll be getting expensive in arbitration by the time the team is again ready to contend, and a relief pitcher isn’t the safest bet to serve as a building block due to their somewhat volatile nature. That said, Giles is unequivocally excellent and should only be moved for a rather notable return.

A few more notes on the relief market…

  • The Red Sox, Tigers and Rangers have all expressed interest in Joakim Soria, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). All three clubs have some previous ties to the right-hander, Morosi notes, as Soria recently closed games for both Texas and Detroit, while Boston president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski traded for Soria when he was GM of the Tigers. Soria’s market figures to be robust, as he’s already been linked to the Twins as well as the three teams listed here by Morosi.
  • There are conflicting reports on the Diamondbacks’ intentions in the late innings. Arizona “seem[s] intent on acquiring a closer,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports, while Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says that the team “now seem[s] content” to add arms in front of Brad Ziegler.
  • The Tigers are one team with interest in Craig Kimbrel of the Padres, says Heyman, who adds that Detroit seems more inclined to utilize free agency for its relief acquisitions.
  • “I think we’re going to try to add at least one left-hander and as many quality relievers as we can,” Braves GM John Coppolella told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. While the Braves are on the hunt for bullpen upgrades, they’re looking for lower-key arms that could yield big results without a huge price tag. Bowman notes that the Braves won’t be pursuing the likes of Darren O’Day and Tyler Clippard due to their presumed asking prices. The team will look for players who could turn into for the Braves what Ryan Madson turned into for the Royals. The Braves enjoyed success from a similar strategy last year, enjoying positive results from low-cost pickups Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson. Grilli, though, suffered an Achilles injury that cost him half the season, while Johnson was eventually traded to the Dodgers. A few speculative fits that are somewhat cut from that cloth: Jonathan Broxton (whom Bowman also mentions), Bobby Parnell and Sean Marshall.
  • At least in terms of free agents, the first major domino may be O’Day, who is reportedly receiving wide and intense interest.

West Notes: Rangers, Padres, Rockies, Eppler

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The Rangers made their biggest additions at the trade deadline, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The principle additions were ace Cole Hamels along with relievers Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson. Between Hamels’ contract and raises to existing personnel, the Rangers won’t have budget to compete for top free agents. Instead, they’ll pursue more cost effective options. Possible reunions with Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, and Mike Napoli represent a few possible fits. Additional bullpen depth is also seen as a need.

Here’s more from the western divisions:

  • Padres GM A.J. Preller “remains an enigma,” writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune. Payroll is expected to range anywhere from slightly below last season’s $108MM to $120MM. That doesn’t give Preller any room for a splashy free agent signing. The club does have to work on building a better balanced product. A real shortstop – not Will Middlebrooks or Jedd Gyorko – should be a priority. The club probably also needs to replace Ian Kennedy and add another depth piece to the rotation. James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit, and Derek Norris are the most likely veterans to be traded.
  • History says the Rockies won’t make a splash either, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Trade interest in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez could affect the team’s plans. If the club is able to trade the two-years and $37MM remaining on his deal, they could potential bid for a slugger like Chris Davis. Despite terrible performance out of the rotation, they probably won’t try to woo free agent pitching.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler is a blend of the old and new schools, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. For those interested, the profile of Eppler details his rise from intern to one of the top GM prospects in the game. The Angels faithful will hope his blend of scouting chops with an analytical instinct will result in a productive offseason for the club. His first test – the GM Meetings – begins on Monday.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Greinke

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The Orioles are generally patient in the free agent market under GM Dan Duquette, writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette’s biggest free agent signings came late in the 2013-2014 offseason when he inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Given that 20 players were extended qualifying offers, Baltimore could once again wait to see if any players fall through the cracks. In my opinion, there are some risks with this strategy. While buying low close to the season has its advantages, it can leave a player under-prepared. Additionally, several clubs appear well positioned to play the waiting game. Duquette could find an unusual amount of competition if he waits to do his shopping until late-January.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Former Orioles Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters may take a patient approach to finding a new contract, writes Dubroff. All three Scott Boras clients received a qualifying offer. In the case of Davis, the Orioles would like to re-sign him and plan to make a competitive offer. However, Dubroff wonders how long Baltimore will allow Davis to shop for offers before they move onto alternatives. Meanwhile, the market for Wieters may not be particularly robust with the White Sox, Astros, and Dodgers as possible fits. Reliever Darren O’Day was not given a qualifying offer, and he could be in line for a four-year contract.
  • The Rays made an early splash on the trade market, and they’re obviously not done, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has narrowed its focus for the offseason but remains open to discussing any player. Topkin notes that free agent activity will wait until later in the offseason “when their currency of playing time can be worth more than money to players still on the market.” Trade talks figure to revolve around first baseman James Loney. He’s owed $8MM next season. Corner infield prospect Richie Shaffer appears ready for a high profile role if Loney is dealt elsewhere.
  • The Red Sox currently have the 12th pick in the 2016 amateur draft, and it may influence some of their free agent decisions, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Under the qualifying offer system, the earliest pick ever surrendered to sign a free agent is the 13th (Padres, James Shields). The club would probably be willing to cough up a pick for a top free agent like Zack Greinke, Davis, or Jordan Zimmermann. However, pitchers like Chen, Marco Estrada, and others might not offer enough upside to forego the early pick. Per President Dave Dombrowski, “I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign.“
  • As a means of retaining their first pick, the Red Sox may attempt to trade for starting pitching, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Trade candidates are harder to predict because it’s unclear which players are really on the table. McAdam believes that A’s starter Sonny Gray, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross are logical targets. The club could also chase a top reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman.
  • Greinke may not be a fit in Boston, opines Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Greinke actually hit similarly to Pablo Sandoval on a rate basis and reportedly enjoys batting regularly. There’s also the matter of home division. The NL West includes some of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. As such, the Dodgers and Giants are a good fit. Pitchers in the AL East have to survive Fenway and three homer-happy venues in Toronto, New York, and Baltimore. That could hold back the Red Sox in negotiations for other top pitchers like David Price too. Gammons does see a possible trade match with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale. Blake Swihart could potentially serve as a centerpiece.

West Notes: Padres, Athletics, Molina

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It doesn’t look like A.J. Preller and the Padres will be big spenders the way they were last winter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes in a preview of the team’s offseason. Lin notes that starting pitcher Ian Kennedy is expected to decline his qualifying offer and test free agency. He also notes that the Padres still badly need a shortstop, and could also pursue a starting pitcher and outfielder, since Kennedy and Justin Upton seem likely to depart. James Shields and Derek Norris, meanwhile, could be potential trade candidates. Moving Shields and the $65MM remaining on his salary would give the Padres more flexibility (which means Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit could also be trade candidates). If Norris departs after a solid first season in San Diego, the Padres could hand the catching position to youngster Austin Hedges, a strong defender. Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • The Athletics have announced a pair of promotions within their front office. They’ve promoted director of player personnel Billy Owens to assistant GM, director of player personnel. Director of professional scouting and baseball development Dan Feinstein, meanwhile, is now assistant GM, pro scouting and player personnel.
  • The Angels have named Jose Molina their catching coordinator. As MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets, that’s a new position for the organization. Gonzalez further clarifies that Molina will mostly be working with minor leaguers. On paper, this looks like a terrific hire for the Angels, since Molina had a rock-solid reputation as a pitch-framing catcher. Molina caught for the Angels for parts of seven seasons, mostly serving as his brother Bengie’s backup. The 40-year-old last appeared in the big leagues with the Rays in 2014.

West Notes: Utley, Kimbrel, Astros, Padres

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The suspension appeal for Dodgers second baseman Chase Utley has been delayed, reports the Associated Press.  Utley was suspended two games for his role in the play that broke Ruben Tejada’s leg in Game 2 of the NLDS.  However, with the Dodgers eliminated from the postseason, there is less urgency to conduct the appeal immediately.  This is the first notable example of a player being suspended for overzealously attempting to break-up a double play.  If the suspension is ultimately upheld, Utley will be suspended for the first two contest of 2016. The Dodgers hold a club option on Utley valued between $5MM and $11MM, based on days spent on the disabled list.

Here’s more from the West divisions..

  • Utley’s hearing will be postponed until later this year or possibly next spring, sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter links).  The CBA mandates that the hearing must take place within 14 days after the player has filed the appeal, but the hearings can be postponed upon mutual agreement between the parties involved.  The appeal will be heard by MLB’s John McHale, not an independent arbitrator.
  • A package of three Astros pitchers – Francis Martes, Josh Hader, and Joseph Musgrove – most likely would have the convinced the Padres to part with closer Craig Kimbrel, a baseball source told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. However, a third piece, thought to be Musgrove, was too rich for Houston’s blood.   The Padres could very well make Kimbrel available once again this winter.
  • Meanwhile, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow believes that his club has an opportunity to become an annual contender.  “We’re in a great position as an organization because our payroll’s going to continue to increase as revenues increase,” Luhnow said. “Our young players are going to continue to come through the system, and we have some assets. We’ve got some benefits, some advantages that other clubs maybe don’t have.  We’ve got one of the top farm systems in baseball still while having a young team at the major league level that’s already competing. That’s the ideal situation. Now, we want to maintain that for a long time to come.”

Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Managers/GMs, Kennedy, Martinez, Beltre, Desmond

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While Matt Williams is all but certain to be let go following the season, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column, a source close to the situation tells him that Nationals GM/president of baseball ops Mike Rizzo “isn’t going anywhere.” The ill-fated acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon and Rizzo’s backing of Williams has led to some speculation about his job, but Heyman indicates that Washington’s top decision-maker is safe. Heyman focuses on the Nats in a lengthy intro to his column, also notably reporting that the “ship has sailed” on the Cubs’ interest in Papelbon, making them an unlikely destination in a trade this winter. The Nats will try to unload Papelbon, though finding a trade partner in the wake of recent drama surrounding him will prove exceptionally difficult. Heyman also notes that Tyler Clippard and Gerardo Parra were Rizzo’s top two deadline priorities, but he didn’t have authorization to increase payroll, and thus turned to Papelbon, as the Phillies were willing to include money in the deal.

Some highlights from the rest of the lengthy but informative column…

  • In running down current GM vacancies as well as potential managerial openings, Heyman notes a number of likelihoods. Billy Eppler is expected to be offered the Angels’ GM position, he hears, but the Halos may go with the increasingly popular two-executive format, meaning Josh Byrnes could be hired as president to work above Eppler. Torey Lovullo’s name could surface as a candidate for the Padres, especially given CEO Mike Dee’s ties to Boston. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto could have a tough time with Lloyd McClendon, whom one Mariners person described as even more old-school than Mike Scioscia, and Heyman hears that former Rangers bench coach/Angels front office assistant Tim Bogar could get a look.
  • The Indians will be looking for third basemen this winter and could seek upgrades in center field and right field as well.
  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich is said to be a believer in young right-hander Eddie Butler, a former Top 100 prospect that has struggled mightily in the Majors. Others in the organization aren’t as sold on him.
  • The Tigers will be looking for a closer and at least one setup man this winter, and they could show interest in the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman on the trade market (though he strikes me as a questionable fit with just one year until free agency). Detroit will also be seeking rotation upgrades on the free agent market, and a few players of early interest are Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy and Jeff Samardzija. Trades for rotation help are also possible, though Detroit wants to hold onto Daniel Norris and Michael Fulmer.
  • Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez recently worked out for the Royals and had an impressive showing. The Dodgers and Giants remain interested as well, he adds. It’s worth also pointing out that each of those three clubs has already spent heavily enough on international free agents to incur maximum penalties, so the only further repercussion they’d face is further luxury taxation.
  • The Brewers will target rotation help this offseason, and Heyman calls Kennedy a “possibility.” To me, that’d seem like more of the same from recent winters, when Milwaukee added Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse — a pair of mid-range upgrades. Unlike those winters, however, they’re not close enough to contention this time around for me to see the logic in offering Kennedy a four-year deal, especially since he’ll probably end up with a qualifying offer attached to his name. On another Brewers’ note, Heyman writes that the team should listen on Jean Segura, given Orlando Arcia’s emergence in the minors, though I’m not sure Segura is teeming with trade value following another poor season.
  • Samardzija could be a target for the Yankees, who employ former Cubs GM Jim Hendry in their front office. Hendry was Chicago’s general manager when the team initially signed Samardzija and remains a believer in the right-hander.
  • The D-Backs, Nationals, Tigers, Cubs, Rangers, Yankees and maybe the Braves will all show interest if the Padres decide to move Craig Kimbrel this winter.
  • Adrian Beltre will need to undergo surgery to repair a severe thumb sprain through which he’s been playing for quite some time following the Rangers’ season.
  • There’s “no chance” that Ian Desmond would accept a one-year qualifying offer, writes Heyman, who presumes that the Nationals will make the offer. Though Desmond’s struggled this year, it shouldn’t be expected that any prime-aged player who isn’t coming off a major injury would accept the offer, in my view. Detractors will state that said player can’t find a similar average annual value on a multi-year deal, and while that may be true, locking in a more sizable payday once free agency is an option tends to be a greater priority. Heyman lists the Mariners, White Sox and Mets as speculative possibilities to enter the shortstop market. Desmond won’t top $100MM, like many once expected, but even with a QO in tow, he’ll be able to handily top $16MM, even at a lower AAV. And, if the offers don’t materialize, he can always sign a one-year deal at or near that rate later in the offseason.
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