NL Notes: Brewers, Kimbrel, Burnes, Braves, McCann, Giants, Austin
Multiple reports over the past few weeks have linked the Brewers to free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, though there have also been indications that the team doesn’t have the payroll available to sign the seven-time All-Star. However, owner Mark Attanasio didn’t slam the door shut on a potential Kimbrel signing Saturday, telling Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that whether the Brewers pursue the 30-year-old is up to general manager David Stearns. “He would help any team,” Attanasio said of Kimbrel, whose reported asking price looks sane in light of his vast career accomplishments and current skill set.
- Meanwhile, in the Brewers’ starting staff, right-hander Corbin Burnes is yielding home runs at a historic rate, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com observes. Burnes surrendered three homers in each of his first three starts, making him the ninth pitcher since 1908 to be victimized to that degree, per McCalvy. Although Burnes owns a a ludicrous 64.3 percent HR-to-fly ball rate across 14 1/3 innings this season, manager Craig Counsell said the Brewers aren’t planning to pull the 25-year-old from their rotation. Rather, they had Burnes meet with members of their analytics department to determine whether his fastball, which has left the yard eight times this year, has become too predictable, Haudricourt tweets. The hard-throwing Burnes’ sudden homer proneness is particularly unexpected given that the former top 100 prospect seldom allowed HRs in the minors; further, the long ball didn’t haunt Burnes to an alarming extent during his 38-inning major league debut last season.
- Braves catcher Brian McCann is aiming to come off the 10-day injured list April 17, the first day he’s eligible to return, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports. McCann landed on the IL with a right hamstring strain, temporarily derailing his homecoming season in Atlanta after just 19 plate appearances. Fortunately for the Braves, fellow backstop Tyler Flowers has come roaring out of the gates this year, which has helped offset McCann’s absence.
- Giants first baseman/outfielder Tyler Austin may be heading for the IL, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Austin, whom the Giants acquired from the Twins on Monday, suffered a right elbow injury in a throwing drill on Friday and will go for an MRI. The 27-year-old has gone 3-for-9 with two walks at the outset of his Giants tenure.
Latest On Craig Kimbrel
6:11pm: Kimbrel is seeking a contract in the range of the deals the Rockies’ Wade Davis (three years, $52MM) and the Yankees’ Zack Britton (three years, $39MM) received over the previous couple offseasons, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Those look like reasonable asking prices for Kimbrel, yet there’s no indication he’s close to signing anywhere.
12:32am: With the excitement of a new season, it’s easy to forget that one of the game’s most accomplished relief pitchers is still sitting on the sideline after failing to find a contract over the offseason. Star closer Craig Kimbrel remains available — and that fact that is due largely to his own unrealistic asking prices, Jim Bowden argues at The Athletic (subscription link).
According to Bowden, agent Dave Meter not only set out in search of a six-year, $120MM for Kimbrel, but has continued to demand a record-seeking deal this spring. Bowden claims that, “even as late as March,” the Kimbrel camp “was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range.”
If indeed that’s the case, it would be hard to escape the conclusion that Kimbrel and/or Meter have simply failed to recognize the reality of Kimbrel’s market standing. Despite his historic excellence, there were some well-documented issues with his free-agent case. That’s why MLBTR predicted a four-year, $70MM contract rather than a record-setting, nine-figure pact.
While a nine-figure bonanza was never likely achievable, it’s certainly possible that mistaken market posturing cost Kimbrel a chance at a deal of the sort we expected. It’s also all but impossible to say that with any real confidence without knowing quite a bit more than is publicly available.
Even if Bowden is correct regarding the Kimbrel side’s expressed beliefs regarding his value, it’s not clear at all that Kimbrel ever fielded and rejected any truly significant contract offers. (Bowden does say that “specific, and significant, offers, or at least ranges of potential contract proposals” were made, though details aren’t available.) Perhaps the player-side negotiating position prevented that from happening, but that’s not something that can be assessed with certitude.
Whatever the case, it’s a tough spot now for Kimbrel and his rep. (Somewhat ironically, Meter is also under fire for rather different reasons after another client inked an eyebrow-raising recent extension.) Their present bargaining position isn’t really known, but it’s certainly becoming harder and harder to imagine a multi-year arrangement coming together — let alone one that compensates Kimbrel commensurate with his still-lofty present ability levels.
While some teams have evidently been interested in discussing longer-term proposals, their own willingness may not be the same at this point of the year. Bowden says that most of those clubs now simply want to score a “bargain basement deal” with Kimbrel, though perhaps it’s still possible that one or more will do more if they truly believe it’s necessary to convince Kimbrel to get back in action and see enough of a team need. (Certainly, there’s no shortage of teams with bullpen needs.)
It’s not an altogether different situation for veteran starter Dallas Keuchel. Bowden also chides him and agent Scott Boras for taking an unreasonable starting position and failing to adapt, though in that case it’s said that specific demands weren’t made in early talks.
Where and when these two hurlers might sign remains anyone’s guess. In a recent poll, MLBTR readers predicted that deals wouldn’t come until after the June draft, at which time draft compensation will no longer be required to add either player. If you’re interested in reading more about possible landing spots, the situation isn’t all that different than it was when MLBTR recently analyzed Kimbrel’s and Keuchels’s market standing team by team.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Kimbrel, Keuchel, Eloy, Pillar, Joyce
There isn’t much indication that Craig Kimbrel or Dallas Keuchel are closing in on new contracts, though that hasn’t stopped teams from keeping in touch with the two free agents. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required) list the Mets and Brewers as two of the clubs checking in on both pitchers, though Milwaukee is more focused on Kimbrel as a potential add. The Rays are also still maintaining contact with Kimbrel, after reports during Spring Training suggested Tampa Bay was at least considering signing the closer. Rosenthal and Lin described the Mets’ interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel “as a matter of due diligence,” with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Newsday’s Tim Healey (both Twitter links) adding that it doesn’t seem likely that either pitcher will end up in a Mets uniform.
Here’s more from Rosenthal, via his most recent Full Count video for FOX Sports…
- Eloy Jimenez‘s career-opening extension with the White Sox included “an understanding” that Jimenez and his camp wouldn’t pursue a service-time grievance with the league and players’ union. Jimenez’s agents expressed public displeasure last summer when their client wasn’t given a late-season promotion, and the young slugger had been ticketed to begin this season in Triple-A before he inked his extension, which opened the door for Jimenez to join Chicago’s Opening Day roster. The evidence seems to pretty clearly suggest that the White Sox were aiming to extend their control over Jimenez for an extra year, though the Sox are far from the only team that deploys this strategy with top prospects.
- The Giants are the only team known to be involved in the Kevin Pillar trade market, though Rosenthal notes that the Blue Jays have also talked with multiple other teams about the center fielder. Pillar offers two years of team control and a center field glove that was elite from 2015-17, as per the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics. Last season, however, Pillar’s glovework was rated closer to average overall, and he has yet to post even league-average run production over his six MLB seasons. If a trade did take place, Pillar would join Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, and Troy Tulowitzki as Jays veterans sent out of town as Toronto makes room for its younger players.
- The Braves acquired Matt Joyce from the Giants last weekend, just three days after Joyce joined San Francisco on a minor league contract. Rosenthal provides some details on the transaction, stating that while the Giants were prepared to part ways with Joyce regardless, Atlanta chose to send some cash to the Giants in a trade rather than simply sign Joyce when he became available. Since league offices were closed last Saturday on the day of the trade, Joyce’s arrival in the Braves’ spring camp could have been further delayed had the two sides been required to wait for the contract to be officially approved. With a trade, however, Joyce was able to get some time in Atlanta’s camp, which led to his placement on the club’s Opening Day roster (Joyce marked his first PA with his new team by swatting a pinch-hit homer).
Quick Hits: Brewers, Kimbrel, Keuchel, Astros, Correa, A’s, Nats
The Brewers have reportedly engaged in “pretty serious” negotiations of late with closer Craig Kimbrel, who remains available even after the start of the season. Now, having lost closer Corey Knebel to season-ending Tommy John surgery, a union between the Brewers and Kimbrel looks even more plausible on paper. However, barring a massive drop in asking price, the Brewers aren’t in position to sign Kimbrel or the majors’ other big-ticket free agent, starter Dallas Keuchel, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Both Kimbrel and Keuchel rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer from their previous team at the outset of the offseason. But even if they wind up settling for one-year contracts, odds are those deals will approach or exceed the worth of the qualifying offer. The Brewers, for their part, probably don’t even have half the value of the QO left in their budget, Haudricourt relays, as they’re already sporting a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. As a result, Haudricourt posits they’re more likely to rely on in-house reinforcements such as injured reliever Jeremy Jeffress and on-the-mend starter Jimmy Nelson than splurge on one of the two star free agents sitting on the open market.
More from around the game…
- Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is likely to make his season debut Sunday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggests. Correa suffered a neck strain a week ago, which has left short to the error-prone Aledmys Diaz and elite third baseman Alex Bregman so far this season. Upon his return, the 24-year-old Correa will aim to rebound from a surprisingly pedestrian 2018 campaign, his second straight injury-limited season.
- Athletics catcher Chris Herrmann, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee toward the beginning of March, expects to miss eight to 10 weeks, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The recipient of a $1MM guarantee over the winter, Herrmann had the inside track on a season-opening roster spot before going under the knife. His injury opened the door for minor league signing Nick Hundley to join holdover Josh Phegley as the Athletics’ top two catchers. Hundley and Phegley have gotten off to slow starts in the early going.
- Nationals left-hander Vidal Nuno III decided not to exercise his March 27 opt-out clause, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. Nuno, who did not make the Nats’ season-opening roster, will have another chance to exit his minor league deal June 15 if he’s still with the organization. In the meantime, the 31-year-old is set to begin the season at the Triple-A level, per Dougherty. Nuno spent most of 2018 in Triple-A with the Rays, but he did amass 33 innings in the majors and pitch to a stingy 1.64 ERA (alongside an unspectacular 4.46 FIP and a paltry 28.6 percent groundball rate) with 7.91 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9.
Braves Reportedly “Still In” On Craig Kimbrel
5:59pm: Whether or not there’s ongoing contact, the Braves have yet to make Kimbrel an offer, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter).
4:10pm: The Braves are “still in” the market for veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link). According to O’Brien’s sources, the race at this point is down to the Braves and Brewers.
Atlanta’s reported interest in their former ninth-inning man has wavered all winter long. The team has made quite clear that it isn’t interested in a lengthy entanglement with the veteran reliever, but has remained engaged in shorter-term scenarios.
Other potential participants in Kimbrel’s market have also remained murky. The Red Sox have all but ruled out a return; the Nationals were briefly rumored to be involved but have said they don’t want to go over the luxury tax line. Otherwise, the Rays are the only team we’ve heard much about; the light-spending org is said to be keeping tabs but obviously hasn’t pushed the market to this point.
Last we heard, just over a week ago, the Braves were not even engaged with Kimbrel’s representatives. Perhaps the team’s ongoing pitching health questions have spurred the front office to reconsider the 30-year-old reliever, who racked up 186 saves and 289 innings of 1.43 ERA pitching in his incredible early-career run in Atlanta.
It’s good news for Kimbrel that there’s finally some added interest. The Brewers have also had injury troubles and are said to be “pretty serious” about getting something done. The question remains whether any of these organizations — or some other one — will feel compelled to offer Kimbrel a significant multi-year pact. At this stage of the offseason, the odds seem stacked against it, but the fact that he has yet to sign could suggest he’s still holding out hope.
Brewers Have Had Recent Talks With Craig Kimbrel
TODAY: Discussions are “pretty serious,” per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
YESTERDAY, 11:26pm: While the two sides have indeed spoken, there’s no agreement close at the time being, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Haudricourt adds that the team’s payroll is already “stretched” after signing Grandal and Moustakas.
8:43pm: The Brewers are in discussions with free-agent reliever Craig Kimbrel, Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic report (via Twitter).
Should a deal come to fruition, the signing would seem similar to the team’s previous agreements with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas in that both landed in Milwaukee on shorter-term deals than anticipated. A match between Kimbrel and the Brewers, at least on paper, has looked plausible the longer his market seemed to stagnate. While the bullpen isn’t necessarily a need for a team that already has Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress, the latter of that trio is currently battling shoulder weakness, and Kimbrel would obviously deepen any team’s ‘pen by pushing out its seventh- or eighth-best relief arm.
Kimbrel, 30, reportedly entered the offseason in search of a record contract that’d promise him six years and a total dollar value in excess of $100MM. Those terms, if indeed accurate, likely scared off a number of suitors early in free agency and led to Kimbrel’s stay on the open market lasting far longer than most would’ve anticipated. Certainly, that type of contract is unattainable for him now, though it’s still possible that Kimbrel could establish some type of record payday for a reliever. Currently, Wade Davis’ $17.33MM annual rate is the highest ever for a bullpen arm, and Kimbrel could still conceivably topple that mark.
That’d be serious money for a typically low-spending Brewers club that is already projected to open the season with a franchise-record $127.5MM payroll. Owner Mark Attanasio, however, has already given president of baseball operations David Stearns the green light to guarantee Grandal an $18.25MM salary on a one-year deal with a mutual option. And, the Brewers have every incentive to increase their spending given their recent NLCS run that provided increased revenue while simultaneously raising expectations surrounding the team.
Milwaukee has already surrendered its third-highest selection in the 2019 draft for signing Grandal, who rejected the Dodgers’ $17.9MM qualifying offer after the season. The Brewers would surrender their next-highest pick in order to sign Kimbrel, who also rejected a qualifying offer. The Brewers, though, are very much in a win-now mode, and their status as a non-luxury-tax-paying recipient of revenue sharing means they face a lower penalty for signing qualified free agents than CBT payors and teams that do not benefit from revenue sharing.
Braves Not “Engaged” With Kimbrel, Keuchel
The Braves “aren’t currently engaged” with the top two remaining free agents, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). While the Atlanta organization would “consider” both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel on short-term pacts, per the report, the club is “assuming both pitchers would do better elsewhere.”
The Atlanta organization’s unwillingness to stretch its valuations on free agents has been a long-running theme of the offseason. In that light, perhaps, it’s not surprising to learn that the club is sitting back on these two accomplished hurlers.
On the other hand, organizational leadership has indicated that there will be an ongoing effort to improve the roster. Particularly with some pitching health questions in camp, a veteran addition would arguably be prudent. And the CEO of team owner Liberty Media did just say that the ballclub’s “management knows they have capacity to do more and are looking for the right deal.”
There has been speculation all winter long that the Braves could be a landing spot for Kimbrel, who could join backstop Brian McCann in making a memorable return to his former stomping grounds. MLBTR’s readers still feel it’s a compelling match, if the results from this morning’s poll is any indication.
Though GM Alex Anthopoulos has cast doubt on the possibility of spending “big, elite dollars” for a bullpen piece, he has also made clear that the club has money left to utilize. There’s certainly an argument to be made that bolstering the back of the pen (and thereby also improving the middle relief unit) would go a long way toward enhancing the team’s chances in a highly competitive division.
Poll: Which Team Should Splurge On Kimbrel?
We have examined the free agent market from just about every angle imaginable over the course of a long signing period. We’re largely shifting our focus here at MLBTR to analyzing the offseason (through our Offseason In Review series), but there is still work to be done in free agency.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the market for ace reliever Craig Kimbrel, focusing on the financial situations of various teams that might conceivably consider splurging at this late stage of the offseason. If you’re interested in understanding things from that angle and haven’t done so already, give that post a read. The teams broken out there aren’t the only ones that arguably can and should still be in on Kimbrel; as Steve explained, he did not give a detailed look at some clubs given the stances they took throughout the winter.
For purposes of today’s poll, we’ll open the door a bit wider. In theory, at least, every organization that hopes to be competitive now or even in 2020 ought to have given some amount of thought to what it would pay to secure the services of one of the game’s elite relievers. We know that no team has met Kimbrel’s initial asking price of a record-breaking, long-term deal. Otherwise, the behind-the-scenes market development has been murky.
Clearly, something has to give. Kimbrel will settle for a deal he’s less than enthused about and/or an organization will go beyond its comfort zone. We’ll focus here on the team-side motivation and throw things wide open, removing only a few organizations from the poll. Which of the following clubs do you think ought to be most willing — given its near-term competitive outlook, roster needs, and other commitments — to splurge a bit to land Kimbrel?
(Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
Which team should be most motivated to sign Craig Kimbrel?
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Braves 15% (4,660)
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Red Sox 12% (3,731)
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Cubs 11% (3,169)
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Phillies 9% (2,592)
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Cardinals 6% (1,826)
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Dodgers 5% (1,531)
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Twins 5% (1,481)
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Nationals 4% (1,266)
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Yankees 3% (1,020)
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Mets 3% (987)
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Rays 3% (984)
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Brewers 3% (970)
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Angels 3% (837)
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Padres 2% (669)
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Astros 2% (646)
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Reds 2% (591)
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Indians 2% (583)
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White Sox 1% (424)
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Blue Jays 1% (418)
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Giants 1% (376)
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Mariners 1% (331)
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Pirates 1% (277)
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Athletics 1% (249)
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Rockies 1% (187)
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Rangers 1% (154)
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Diamondbacks 0% (137)
Total votes: 30,096
Rays Notes: Kimbrel, Honeywell/De Leon, Kiermaier
The Rays will need to squeeze every last ounce of value out of their existing roster and payroll if they are to make a real bid for the postseason in an incredibly stratified American League. Here’s the latest, with all links to the reporting of Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times:
- With some payroll space evidently still available, the Rays have “maintained regular contact” with legendary reliever Craig Kimbrel, Topkin tweets. A successful pursuit remains “unlikely,” per the report. Surely the Rays would only consider Kimbrel on a short-term deal, as the organization has always been careful not to tie up too much future payroll. Whether Kimbrel will ultimately settle for a one or two-year pact — and, if so, what will drive his decisionmaking — isn’t yet evident.
- Two important young Tampa Bay hurlers are making progress in their efforts to return from Tommy John procedures, Topkin further reports (Twitter links). Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon each threw against live hitters for the first time. It was only 15 pitches apiece, but that’s still a good sign that both of these well-regarded young hurlers are coming along. The Rays will likely continue to take things slow, but surely also entertain visions of either or both making an impact as a mid-season call-up.
- Topkin also looks in at Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, whom the team badly needs to turn in a healthy and productive campaign. Soon to turn 29, the rangy outfielder is coming off of a disappointing season at the plate in which he slashed just .217/.282/.370. Kiermaier has averaged barely more than 400 plate appearances annually over the past three years due to a variety of injuries. The maladies have tended to come about in the course of Kiermaier’s hard-charging play, though it doesn’t seem as if the team thinks there’s much to be gained from trying to rein him in. “It’s probably best for us to stay out of the way and keep our fingers crossed that none of the freak things happen,” says skipper Kevin Cash.
AL East Notes: Kimbrel, Rays, Orioles, Red Sox
Though the common belief is that the Rays wouldn’t make an expensive splash to add Craig Kimbrel, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that there’s somewhat of a “never say never” sentiment within the organization as Kimbrel continues to linger (and as his price likely drops in corresponding fashion). The right-hander doesn’t appear likely to cash in on the mega contract he sought early in the offseason, and it’s not clear at this point how many clubs would even have interest on a multi-year pact. I ran through some potential landing spots for Kimbrel on shorter-term deals (with a significant annual value) last Friday and largely glossed over the Rays due to their historic reluctance to spend at that level and due to the fact that Kimbrel would require forfeiture of a draft pick (another prior sticking point for Tampa Bay). However, with a projected Opening Day payroll of just $60MM and only $27MM on the books in 2020 (per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), the Rays certainly have the payroll space to add Kimbrel if they look to break character for a second time this winter after already inking Charlie Morton (two years, $30MM). The Rays opened the 2018 season with a $76MM payroll.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- The Orioles would trade any of their starters who are “making significant money,” Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes in his latest notes column (subscription required). It’s hardly surprising that Baltimore would jump at the opportunity to shed the remaining $43MM (over three years) on Alex Cobb‘s contract or the $8MM owed to Andrew Cashner this season, but Rosenthal also lists right-hander Dylan Bundy (earning $2.8MM) among the group. Moving Bundy would be more surprising given his affordable salary and remaining three seasons of control, though it seems unlikely they’d sell low on the former No. 4 overall pick after he led the Majors with 41 homers allowed last season. Bundy, 26, has demonstrated very appealing K/BB numbers over the past two seasons, but home runs have continually been a problem for him at the MLB level. A trade of any of the three seems extraordinarily unlikely to happen before Opening Day, but if any of that trio is performing well early in the year, he’ll emerge as a trade candidate this summer.
- Red Sox right-hander Brandon Workman opened Spring Training with a fastball that was sitting 92 to 93 mph, writes Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, but his velocity has dipped substantially in recent outings. Workman has averaged 87 to 89 mph on his fastball in his past two outings, and manager Alex Cora spoke to Mastrodonato about the current “dead arm” Workman is attempting to overcome. As Mastrodonato points out, the majority of Boston’s candidates for the bullpen have struggled this spring, which at least has the potential to open the door for a prospect like Darwinzon Hernandez to get a look.