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Eduardo Rodriguez

Eduardo Rodriguez, Bobby Dalbec Test Positive For COVID-19

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Two additional Red Sox players are being isolated with coronavirus infections, the club informed reporters including Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and infield prospect Bobby Dalbec each tested positive for COVID-19 (and consented to the public disclosure of that information).

Fortunately, there is no indication that either player is dealing with significant complications. It even sounds as if there’s still some hope for Rodriguez to be ready for the start of the season — or, at least, the southpaw is holding out the possibility in hopes of taking the honor of an Opening Day nod.

As with all the other such cases around the league, the two keys here are to ensure the health of the infected players and prevent any further transmission. Before they are able to join the Boston Summer Camp, Rodriguez and Dalbec will need to get past the disease and twice test negative.

It’s a disappointing situation for both players. Rodriguez had an impressive spring after a quality, 200-inning 2019 showing. He’s looking to lay the groundwork for his final trip through arbitration and perhaps take another step forward as a front-line starter. Dalbec reached Triple-A last year and earned a top-100 leaguewide prospect grade from Baseball America. He’s surely hoping to debut in the majors in 2020.

Two Red Sox Players Test Positive For Coronavirus

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The Red Sox have announced that left-handed pitchers Darwinzon Hernandez and Josh Taylor have both tested positive for COVID-19, MLB.com’s Ian Browne was among those to report. Taylor’s positive test came during the intake at Red Sox camp, whereas Hernandez stayed at home. Both players will be quarantined and unable to return to the team until they’ve tested negative twice.

Evidently, both players gave the team permission to reveal their identities as the players who received positive test results. Boston skipper Ron Roenicke wouldn’t say whether Taylor and Hernandez were exhibiting symptoms, which could alter their timeline in returning to the diamond.

Fellow Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has abstained from reporting to Boston, is awaiting test results after coming into contact with a person who may have contracted the virus.

Both Hernandez and Taylor figure to be important pieces in the Boston bullpen this year, and there’s a considerable chance that the Sox will have to start the season without them. The two lefties each got their first foray into the big leagues last year, with Hernandez tossing more than 30 innings for Boston and Taylor tallying almost 50. Their roles this year might have been amplified, with relatively limited left-handed options in the bullpen mix for the Red Sox. Josh Osich is the other lefty reliever in the Boston 60-man player pool.

Clearly, though, the primary focus will be on the health and recovery of the Red Sox pitchers, and we wish them a quick and orderly return to health. We’ll hope to see Hernandez and Taylor on the mound and in good health at Fenway Park in the near future.

How Boston Landed One Of Its Most Valuable Pitchers

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Andrew Miller was the sixth overall pick of the Tigers in the 2006 draft and continued as an elite prospect for a little while after that, but it took the left-hander several years to truly make his mark as a major leaguer. Miller began as a starter in Detroit, but after struggling over parts of two seasons, the team dealt him and others to the Marlins in December 2007 for Miguel Cabrera in one of the most impactful trades in the two clubs’ histories. Miller didn’t pan out in Miami from 2008-10, though, and he went to Boston after the last of those seasons in exchange for lefty Dustin Richardson.

Richardson never even threw a pitch as a Marlin, whereas the Red Sox are still profiting from the trade to this day. While Miller continued to flounder in his first year with the Red Sox, the 6-foot-7, 205-pounder moved to the bullpen on a full-time basis the next season. That represented a eureka moment for Miller, who began a years-long run as one of the most imposing late-game options in baseball.

Miller held his own in Boston into the 2014 season, but with the team well out of contention at that year’s deadline, it traded the then-pending free agent to the AL East rival Orioles. Miller went on to provide 20 dominant regular-season innings in Baltimore, which coasted to a division title, as well as 7 1/3 scoreless, one-hit frames in the playoffs. The Orioles lost the ALCS in four games to the Royals, however, and then saw Miller head to a different division rival – the Yankees – during the ensuing period of free agency. In light of those results, and considering what they gave up for Miller, perhaps the O’s now regret the trade. Boston definitely doesn’t, having received one of its top pitchers in Eduardo Rodriguez for Miller.

Dating back to the deal, the Red Sox have seen Rodriguez turn into an above-average major league starter. Rodriguez, who debuted with Boston in 2015, is the owner of a lifetime 4.03 ERA/3.94 FIP across 699 innings. Although Rodriguez didn’t prove to be a workhorse in his first four years in the league, that changed last season. The 27-year-old Rodriguez was one of 15 pitchers who accumulated 200-plus frames (203 1/3, to be exact), and he posted a 3.81 ERA/3.86 FIP with 9.43 K/9 and 3.32 BB/9 to rank 24th among starters in fWAR (3.7). Ace-like numbers? No, though Boston was surely pleased with that production from a hurler who was on an eminently affordable $4.3MM salary. And the team could get at least two more seasons from Rodriguez, who won’t be eligible to become a free agent until after 2021.

While he hasn’t shown himself to be a true No. 1 starter, the Red Sox can’t be displeased with acquiring Rodriguez for someone on an expiring contract. Meanwhile, the Rockies may be kicking themselves for passing on Rodriguez. Peter Gammons reported in 2014 that the O’s agreed to send Rodriguez to Colorado for fellow southpaw Jorge De La Rosa, but Rockies owner Dick Monfort vetoed the deal. De La Rosa stayed in Colorado through 2016, though the team didn’t contend then or in his last couple years on its roster.

You never know how Rodriguez would have turned out as a Rockie – everyone knows it’s a bear to pitch in their home park – but he has certainly held up well in the AL East. Rodriguez is now one of the most valuable players Boston has.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Win Arbitration Hearing Against Eduardo Rodriguez

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Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has lost his arbitration hearing against the team, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Rodriguez will now receive an $8.3MM salary for the 2020 season, as opposed to his sought-after figure of $8.975MM.

Amidst an overall disappointing year for the Sox, Rodriguez was a major bright spot, delivering a performance that earned him a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.  The southpaw posted a 3.81 ERA, 2.84 K/BB rate, 9.4 K/9, and 48.5% grounder rate in 2019, and perhaps the most important statistic for Rodriguez is that those numbers came over 203 1/3 innings.  After multiple injury-plagued years, Rodriguez stayed healthy and became a workhorse out of Boston’s rotation, as only ten pitchers topped Rodriguez’s innings total last season.

Originally acquired for Andrew Miller in 2014 trade deadline deal, the man they call E-Rod has been a solid (if inconsistent) pitcher over his 699 career Major League innings, and the Red Sox now hope that he can match or surpass his 2019 numbers going forward.  As a Super Two player, Rodriguez has a fourth year of arbitration eligibility remaining next season before hitting free agency after the 2021 season.  There hadn’t been any extension talks between Rodriguez and the Red Sox as of last September, though it wouldn’t be surprising if new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and Rodriguez’s reps at Octagon have a few discussions this spring now that this hearing is out of the way (and now that the Sox have cleared a lot of future salary off their books by trading David Price to the Dodgers).

Dodgers reliever Pedro Baez remains the only player to emerge victorious in an arbitration hearing this year, as Rodriguez joins Jose Berrios, Shane Greene, Joc Pederson, and Tony Wolters in coming up on the down side of the arbiter’s decision.  You can follow along with all of the arbitration results with the MLBTR Arbitration Tracker.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s Arbitration Hearing Set For Wednesday

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The Red Sox and left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez have an arbitration hearing set for this coming Wednesday, the pitcher himself revealed upon arriving to the team’s spring complex in Ft. Myers, Fla. (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). He’s filed for an $8.975MM salary, while the team countered at a proposed $8.3MM mark (as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).

Thus far in 2020, teams have toppled players by a 3-0 margin. The Braves bested Shane Greene early last week, and that was followed by arb victories for the Twins (over Jose Berrios) and for the Dodgers (over Joc Pederson). Rodriguez and his reps at Octagon will surely hope to halt that team-side momentum — assuming the two parties get to the hearing room. The Red Sox did negotiate a two-year, $10MM deal with Andrew Benintendi late last week, which will avoid arbitration for him both in 2020 and in 2021. A two-year arrangement with Rodriguez would buy out his final two seasons of club control, so that’d perhaps be a palatable alternative if the two sides can yet agree on a price point.

Like Benintendi, Rodriguez has established himself as a key piece for the Red Sox. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Rodriguez may have even been Boston’s best starter in 2019, when he pitched to a 3.81 ERA/3.86 FIP with 9.43 K/9, 3.32 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent groundball rate across 203 1/3 innings. It was a breakthrough year for Rodriguez, who hadn’t amassed more than 137 1/3 frames in any season since the ex-Orioles farmhand made his MLB debut with the Red Sox in 2015.

Now that fellow southpaw David Price is no longer a member of Boston’s rotation, Rodriguez is all the more important to the team’s starting staff. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll come out on top in his arbitration hearing or earn a multiyear extension.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

No Talks Between Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez On Extension

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Eduardo Rodríguez has been the Red Sox most reliable starter this year. Sitting on 196.1 innings entering today’s final start against the Orioles, Rodríguez stands a good shot of eclipsing 200 innings for the first time in his career, which would make him one of only 15 pitchers to do so this season. His strikeout (24.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates are right in line with his previous career work, but a massive uptick in ground balls and improved health have helped the 26 year-old to a career-best season, with the high innings total paired with a solid 3.80 ERA.

With Rodríguez having emerged as a mid-rotation starter, many teams would be interested in locking him up long-term. The Red Sox, though, haven’t initiated any such conversations, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. Nevertheless, the hurler indicated he’d be amenable to a long-term arrangement if the team were to come knocking. “I still have two more years here. We’ll see how that goes. I love it here and I want to stay here for a long time. If they want me to, I’ll stay here,” Rodríguez said. “I haven’t had that conversation yet so I don’t know how that feels.”

That there haven’t been any talks as of yet isn’t too surprising considering the current state of the organization. Having fired Dave Dombrowski, the Sox are operating with a four-person crew heading up baseball operations for the stretch run, with the organization’s permanent leader still to be determined. No doubt, Boston will look to put a long-term front office structure in place before turning to key offseason roster decisions.

Also throwing a wrench into matters is the organization’s seemingly forthcoming effort to slash payroll significantly. Red Sox ownership expressed a desire this week to get underneath the competitive balance tax threshold of $208MM in 2020, a huge cut from the team’s estimated $240MM+ luxury tax figure this season. With the club already having $150MM+ on the books next season, not counting arbitration raises, there figures to be quite a bit of roster turnover.

While most of the attention has been focused on Mookie Betts, who is on track to become a free agent after next season, the situation with Rodríguez could likewise go a number of ways. Rodríguez and the Sox agreed to a $4.3MM salary to avoid arbitration last offseason, with two more years of arb forthcoming. Between his innings total, run prevention and 19 wins (which surely won’t matter to the Sox’s new front office head but will factor into his arbitration status), E-Rod looks poised for a significant raise in the coming months.

Buying out free agent seasons would only exacerbate the organization’s CBT concerns. Luxury tax calculations are based on average annual value of the players’ contracts, not actual yearly sum. Even if the Sox were to backload a Rodríguez extension, the present CBT calculation of any deal would be rather lofty, certainly higher than if the parties again settled on a one-year agreement to avoid arbitration.

If Boston indeed follows through on cutting payroll, there’s a chance Rodríguez even becomes an offseason trade candidate instead. Again, however, there’s little indication on how the organization plans to proceed until they bring in a new head of baseball ops. Dealing away Rodríguez would be difficult for a team that no doubt plans to contend in 2020, as the Sox’s rotation mix is filled with uncertainty. Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and David Price all have their health question marks, while Rick Porcello is slated to hit free agency.

How the Red Sox choose to proceed this offseason will be among the winter’s most fascinating stories. Whether any arrangement can be hammered out to keep the youngest member of the rotation in the fold for the long-term certainly bears monitoring.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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AL East Notes: Sale, E-Rod, Red Sox, Orioles, Davis

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After suffering a four-game sweep at Fenway Park, the Yankees are now 9.5 games behind the Red Sox for first place in the AL East.  New York has posted only a 18-20 record over its last 38 games, and this slump has not only seemingly put the division title out of reach, but also raised some concern that a turn-around is needed just to ensure a wild card berth.  As the New York Post’s Joel Sherman puts it, “the Red Sox are no longer the Rivals in 2018. The A’s and Mariners are.”  The Yankees are just 2.5 games ahead of the red-hot Athletics for home field advantage in the wild card game, while Seattle (who also been struggling lately) is 2.5 games behind Oakland.  It’s worth remembering, of course, that the Yankees are still 68-42 on the season and one rough series doesn’t write them off as World Series contenders, particularly since the club will eventually get key players like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez back from the disabled list.

Some more from around the AL East…

  • While Chris Sale won’t be activated from the disabled list as soon as he’s eligible, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato) that the delay isn’t due to any setback with Sale’s shoulder.  The team was simply lining up its rotation so that Sale wouldn’t be starting, and thus batting, during an interleague series in Philadelphia next week.  The ace left-hander will likely make his return to start against the Orioles on August 11 or 12, Cora said.
  • In other Red Sox health news, Eduardo Rodriguez threw 30 pitches off a mound on Sunday and came away “feeling good,” he told reporters (including Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe).  While it isn’t yet certain what the next step in the left-hander’s recovery process will be, or even if Rodriguez will be able to return before August is through, Sunday’s throwing session was a good sign given that Rodriguez looked to have suffered a particularly severe ankle sprain back in mid-July.  Rodriguez hopes to come back as a starter but is open to pitching out of the bullpen; Abraham notes that returning as a reliever would likely mean a shorter rehab process.  One would think that Rodriguez (3.44 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.44 K/BB over 104 2/3 IP) has pitched well enough that the Sox would want him back in the rotation, but with Nathan Eovaldi now in the fold, Rodriguez may have more value in a Boston bullpen that currently lacks any left-handers.
  • With the Orioles now in full rebuild mode, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko looks ahead to what the team might have in store for the offseason.  The O’s could quite possibly continue to move veterans such as Mark Trumbo or Tim Beckham if any trade partners could be found, or potentially keep a familiar face around to serve as an experienced clubhouse voice on what is shaping up to be a much younger roster in 2019.
  • It also remains to be seen if the Rule 5 Draft will continue to be a significant part of the Orioles’ offseason strategy.  The O’s have put a notable focus on acquiring young talent via the Rule 5 Draft in recent years, including selecting three players last winter.  One player the O’s considered but didn’t select last winter was left-hander Austin Davis, Kubatko reports.  Davis has since made his MLB debut and posted some strong results (3.38 ERA, 4.33 K/BB rate, 26 strikeouts in 21 1/3 IP) out of the Phillies’ bullpen this season.  Given that the Orioles and Phillies were heavily involved in trade talks for such players as Manny Machado and Adam Jones in the lead-up to the July 31 deadline, it’s fair to wonder if Baltimore again tried to acquire Davis as part of negotiations.

Red Sox Willing To Cross Highest Luxury Tax Threshold

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Though the past 12 months in Major League Baseball have been largely punctuated by big-market clubs performing financial gymnastics to avoid crossing the $197MM luxury tax barrier (e.g. Giants, Yankees, Dodgers), the Red Sox are of a different mindset. Boston, of course, has already exceeded the $197MM threshold — so much so that the team is already on the hook for an extra 12 percent surtax on every dollar spent over $217MM (plus 20 percent on everything north of $197MM). But Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy tells Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston that the organization is willing, in the right scenario, for its luxury tax ledger to cross the $237MM mark that represents the most severe point of taxation.

As Drellich explains, the Sox are already in line to pay something in the vicinity of $10MM in luxury tax penalties based on their spending to date. The collective bargaining agreement, though, stipulates that a team exceeding the initial tax barrier by more than $40MM will not only pay a 42.5 percent surtax on every dollar spent beyond $237MM (in addition to the standard 20 percent), it’d also see its top pick in the following year’s draft pushed back 10 spots (provided that pick is not within the top six of the draft, which obviously will not be the case).

The Red Sox currently hold the best record in baseball, which should line them up to pick 33rd overall in 2019. (Normally, that’d be 30th overall, but the Braves, D-backs and Dodgers will all receive compensatory first-round selections after failing to sign their 2018 first-round draft choices.) By dropping from 33rd to 43rd in the draft, the Sox would not only have a less preferential pool from which to select a player, they’d also see their overall draft budget reduced accordingly. The difference in slot value between pick No. 33 and pick No. 43 in 2018 was $454,400 — not a massive sum, but one that would limit a team’s flexibility when trying to negotiate over-slot bonuses with mid-round picks. Nonetheless, Kennedy clearly states that the Sox aren’t closed off to the possibility.

“[T]here would be a willingness to do that if it meant, in our estimation, making a decision that could really help put us over the edge, over the top, this year and the postseason,” said Kennedy of crossing the $237MM line. “You know, we had the taste of October the last two years. There’s no question, we’re hungry for October success.”

Notably, Drellich writes that the Sox may ultimately consider adding a starting pitcher now that Eduardo Rodriguez’s ankle has been found to have “serious damage” following this past weekend’s injury. Left-hander Drew Pomeranz (biceps tendinitis) and right-hander Steven Wright (knee inflammation) are both on the shelf as well. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price still give the Sox a solid foundation on their starting staff, but with injuries mounting, a more pressing need than most would have anticipated just a few weeks ago certainly exists.

Boston also remains keen on adding a reliever, Drellich notes, as has been reported by various outlets over the past few weeks. Drellich suggests that Rodriguez could ultimately emerge as a bullpen option if the Sox want to ease him back into action late in the year, though president of baseball operations tells Drellich it is “much too early” to make any sort of determination as pertains to that possibility.

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