Blue Jays Met With Framber Valdez In November
Fresh off a run to the World Series, the Blue Jays have been very active on the free agent market. They signed top free agent starter Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal and also brought in Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce. The past few days have not gone in their favor, though. Toronto was one of the top suitors for Kyle Tucker and offered him $350MM over ten years before he signed with the Dodgers. They also hoped to re-sign Bo Bichette, but he opted for a short-term, high-AAV deal with the Mets yesterday.
After coming up short on Tucker and Bichette, it’s plausible the team could shift their focus back to adding more pitching. Lefty Framber Valdez remains available, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays met with him at the GM meetings back in November. Nicholson-Smith clarifies that the meeting was before Cease’s signing, but there was mutual interest between the two sides at the time.
Valdez has so far been publicly linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox. The Orioles’ interest was reported even after they signed Pete Alonso for $155MM over five years. The Giants are more interested in a short-term deal, while the Mets reportedly prefer to add pitching via trade. The Red Sox also Met with Valdez in November, but they may no longer be a fit after signing Ranger Suarez and trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.
As for the Blue Jays, their current interest in Valdez is unclear, as is their ability to fit him into the payroll. RosterResource has their 2026 payroll at $282MM and their CBT payroll at $310.5MM, which puts them over the maximum luxury tax line of $304MM. While their offer for Tucker would have carried a $35MM AAV plus a $31.5MM luxury tax bill, he may have been a special case as the clear top hitter on the market.
Meanwhile, Valdez is older than all three of Tucker, Bichette, and Cease. He was predicted to land a five-year, $150MM deal on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. As a second-year luxury tax payor, the Jays would owe $27MM in tax penalties on that $30MM AAV, making Valdez a $57MM total cost in 2026 if they were to sign him. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, so he would cost the Jays their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026. With a projected rotation of Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Ponce, it’s possible that Valdez is both too expensive and more of a want than a need for Toronto.
Of course, none of that takes away from Valdez’s track record. From 2022-25, he was worth 16.5 fWAR, which was fifth-best among qualified starters between Gausman and Cease. A lot of that success has come from Valdez’s suppression of home runs and exceptional groundball rates. In those four seasons, his 0.68 HR/9 is tied for fifth-best among qualified starters. His groundball rate of 60.0% is tops among starters with at least 500 innings. For Valdez, that number has never dipped below 54.2% in a full season.
He has also built a reputation for durability. Valdez’s 767 2/3 innings since the start of 2022 are second-most in the majors behind only Giants ace Logan Webb. This past year was more of the same. In 31 starts with the Astros, Valdez pitched 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA, a 58.6% groundball rate, and an above-average 14.8% K-BB rate.
He did show some signs of wear as the season went on, posting a 5.20 ERA in 71 innings in the second half. The last two months were especially rough. In August, Valdez only struck out 12.8% of hitters. In September and October, he became uncharacteristically homer-prone, allowing six long balls in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 HR/9). On the positive side, his sinker remained a dominant pitch, with a run value of 15 according to Statcast as well as above-average vertical break. While a long-term deal would take Valdez into his mid-30s, he should at least maintain a strong floor thanks to his durability and extreme groundball tendencies.
The market has been solid for pitchers looking for long-term deals. Cease was coming off an uneven walk year with the Padres and still got seven years from the Jays. Suarez just got five years and $130MM from Boston, matching our contract prediction in length and outdoing it by $15MM in value. Tatsuya Imai is perhaps the only starter expected to get a long-term deal who settled for a shorter pact (three years, $54MM with the Astros). Age aside, Valdez has a lengthy track record and should do better than Imai, at least in terms of AAV.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Red Sox Rumors: Suarez, Bichette, Valdez, Rotation
The Red Sox are still reeling from Alex Bregman‘s departure for the Cubs but have minimal time to lick their wounds. The free agent and trade markets have begun to pick up some steam, and whatever Boston’s pivot from losing Bregman will be, it’ll need to come together before terribly long. The Bregman deal and the trade of Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona both figure to get the ball rolling with regard to the infield market. There are also indications that the market for top free agent Kyle Tucker is gaining steam as well. Even though Tucker understandably isn’t a target for a Red Sox team that’s deep in lefty-swinging outfielders, reports of him nearing a decision only give further credence to the idea that the market will accelerate with pitchers and catchers just a month from reporting to spring training.
It’s not entirely clear how Boston will look to counteract Bregman’s defection just yet. Both Bo Bichette and Eugenio Suarez have been mentioned as possible fallback options. The fit in either case makes sense. Both swing right-handed and have batted-ball profiles that would fit well at Fenway Park. Suarez could step into Bregman’s spot at third base. Bichette could play third base or second base. Former top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could factor in at whichever of those two positions is not filled externally.
Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive provide some context in their latest column, as does Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Per McAdam and Cotillo, the Red Sox showed preliminary interest in Suarez earlier in the offseason but were first waiting to see how the markets for not only Bregman but also Ketel Marte and Jorge Polanco played out. Suarez’s camp is operating under the assumption that there’s some interest and will soon be told whether the Sox plan to make a serious bid, per the report. Speier’s report generally backs up that line of thinking; he writes that the Red Sox have viewed Suarez as a fallback and had not seriously engaged with his camp prior to Bregman’s signing.
Suarez, 35 in July, popped 49 homers last season but hit .228/.298/.526 overall. He once graded as a strong defender at the hot corner but has seen his defensive grades slip as he’s aged into his mid-30s — as is often the case. His thunderous right-handed power and pull-happy approach make him a natural fit at Fenway Park, where he could pummel the Green Monster with line drives and clear it with regularity, but Suarez finished the season on a down note; his production waned after a trade from the D-backs to the Mariners last summer. After hitting .248/.320/.576 with a 26.8% strikeout rate for the Snakes, he posted a .189/.255/.428 slash with a 36% strikeout rate in 53 games for the M’s.
At the outset of free agency, MLBTR predicted a three-year deal worth a bit more than $20MM annually for Suarez. That contract seemed likely if a team were to make him a priority. That he’s been viewed as something of a fallback to sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, as well as top infield free agents like Bregman and Bichette, would at least seem to imply that a two-year deal may now be likelier. A two-year contract certainly would align with the Red Sox’ apparent aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s, but Boston will face competition in signing him. The Mariners remain open to a reunion, and the Pirates, who’ve spent the offseason searching for power upgrades, have interest as well.
The Sox will face competition with regard to Bichette, too — if they plan to pursue him at all. Bichette is 27 and won’t turn 28 until March. His age makes him a candidate to sign the type of long-term deal the Red Sox have been reluctant to put forth to free agents. Both the MassLive and Globe reports cast significant doubt on whether the Red Sox would actually engage in a legitimate bidding war with a team like the Phillies, who met with Bichette just yesterday and are far more comfortable doling out long-term contracts (at least based on recent history).
Depending on how or even if the Red Sox end up accomplishing their goal of adding another hitter, a reallocation of the funds previously earmarked for Bregman could come into play. Both MassLive and the Globe suggest that a pivot to the rotation is something the Sox could now pursue. Speier suggests that the Sox are “open-minded” with regard to the position another impact player could fill. That could mean the rotation or, speculatively speaking, perhaps a run at improving the catching corps. J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent, and the Phillies reportedly don’t think they can sign both Bichette and Realmuto.
If the Sox pivot to the rotation, there are still some notable names on the market. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reports that as far back as November, Red Sox brass had an in-person sit-down with Framber Valdez‘s camp. That meeting came at the GM Meetings, where Valdez reportedly met with at least the Giants and Orioles as well.
Valdez, 32 next year, might not have been a top target after the Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray and pivoted to upgrading the lineup. However, he’d fit the stated goal of adding a No. 2 starter for a playoff series more directly than Gray. A postseason rotation with options including Garrett Crochet, Valdez, Gray and Brayan Bello would be quite strong, and it’s always possible that a touted young arm like Payton Tolle or Connelly Early forces his way into the mix.
Valdez became a free agent for the first time this offseason when he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, the only organization he’s ever known. He’s topped 190 innings in three of the past four seasons, pitching to a collective 3.21 ERA in 767 2/3 frames along the way. Valdez’s strikeout rate, walk rate and especially his 60% ground-ball rate have all been far better than the league average during that four-year span.
Signing Valdez, however, would require the Red Sox to punt their second- and fifth-highest selections in this summer’s draft, as well as $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international free agent amateurs. The same is true of longtime Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez and longtime D-backs righty Zac Gallen, both of whom rejected QOs as well. Whether they’d make those future concessions while simultaneously easing their reluctance to commit long-term deals to veterans in their 30s is an open question, but the Red Sox have now missed out on Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber in free agency, and top trade target Marte doesn’t sound like he’ll be moved at all. They’ll need to find a new plan of attack in the coming days, particularly with offseason activity picking back up following the annual holiday-season lull.
Orioles Notes: Henderson, Valdez, Astros
Gunnar Henderson‘s third full Major League season was another success, as the infielder hit .274/.349/.438 with 17 home runs over 651 plate appearances. It was more or less a match for the 2023 season that earned Henderson AL Rookie of the Year honors — Henderson posted a 122 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR that year, and a 120 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR in 2025.
Last season’s numbers were, however, a step back from the 154 wRC+ and 7.9 fWAR Henderson delivered in 2024. Henderson missed most of Spring Training and the first week of regular-season action recovering from an intercostal strain, but the shortstop revealed Thursday that he also spent about “three-quarters of the year” dealing with a heretofore unknown shoulder impingement.
In an interview on WBAL’s Orioles Hot Stove Show (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Henderson said “I just wasn’t able to hold the plane and my body was adjusting to it, not feeling great, so that didn’t really set up me in the right spot to leverage the ball like I normally do.” Despite his solid production, Henderson “could never get to the spot that I wanted to get to with my swing, but no excuse. Just had to play through it and felt like I still with all those circumstances put up a decent year. Looking forward to being healthy this year and getting back to my normal self.”
The injury wasn’t serious enough to merit a trip to the injured list, or even any missed time, as Henderson played in 154 of 155 games after being activated from the IL on April 4. Since the Orioles faded from contention pretty early in the season, the team certainly should’ve shut down Henderson or at least reduced his playing time if there was any real concern over his shoulder.
With Henderson now predicting good health for 2026, the shoulder impingement can probably just be written off as a yet another footnote within an injury-riddled season for the Orioles roster. Getting the 2024 version of Henderson back would go a long way towards helping the O’s return to playoff contention after their disappointing 75-win campaign.
Having Framber Valdez in the rotation would also be a huge boost, and the possibility of a big rotation add remains alive since the Orioles have been linked to the free agent southpaw’s market. This isn’t the first time Baltimore has looked to acquire Valdez, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon report that the left-hander was part of a four-player trade package the Astros were prepared to send to the O’s for Zack Britton at the 2017 trade deadline.
It was known at the time that a Britton trade fell apart at the last minute between the two sides, with the Orioles reportedly pulling out due to medical concerns over two of the players involved. Houston’s side of the deal wasn’t known until now, as Rosenthal/Sammon report that the Astros were offering Valdez (then a somewhat unheralded Double-A prospect), J.D. Davis, Jason Martin, and Rogelio Armenteros for Britton, who was in the midst of an injury-shortened season but was arguably baseball’s best closer when healthy.
While initial reports said the Orioles took issue with the medical of both pitchers (Armenteros and Valdez) in the trade offer, Rosenthal/Sammon write that Baltimore’s issue was just with Armenteros. Former Orioles owner Peter Angelos was somewhat notorious for his caution over pitcher health, leading to several trades or free agent signings that were renegotiated at the eleventh hour, or abandoned altogether.
Armenteros’ MLB career ended up consisting of five appearances for the Astros in 2019 and he missed the entire 2020 season due to surgery to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow. In this context, it’s hard to say the Orioles were incorrect in their concern, though Arementeros ended up being the least-accomplished of the four players Houston offered. Beyond just Valdez, Davis became a very productive infielder once the Astros traded him to the Mets during the 2018-19 offseason, and that breakout could’ve very well happened in Baltimore rather than in New York. Martin’s MLB career consisted of 85 games with the Pirates and Rangers from 2019-21, but Martin was one of the four players the Astros sent to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole prior to the 2018 season.
The Astros went onto win the 2017 World Series anyway without Britton, and Valdez ended up being a cornerstone piece of the team’s success over the last decade. While Houston’s front office (which included current Orioles president of baseball ops Mike Elias at the time) was surely irritated when the Orioles pulled the plug on the Britton trade, the team came out on top in the long run, and it’s another example of how you just never know which prospect might end up as the key figure of a trade package.
In fairness to the O’s, there wasn’t much indication at the time that Valdez would turn into a frontline starter, and it is possible Valdez wouldn’t have developed as well as he did in Baltimore’s organization rather than in Houston. The 2017 season was the first of five straight losing seasons for the Orioles as they entered a rebuilding period under Elias, and it is interesting to wonder how having Valdez (and Davis) around might’ve changed the trajectory of that rebuild.
Poll: Would You Rather Have Framber Valdez Or Ranger Suarez?
The 2025-26 offseason hasn’t been exceptionally slow overall to this point, with 30 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents already signed in addition to plenty of significant trades. With that said, however, things have been unusually quiet at the top of the class. Outside of an early strike by the Blue Jays to land Dylan Cease back in November, the only free agents in MLBTR’s Top 10 who have signed are Kyle Schwarber, who was always expected to re-up with the Phillies in relatively short order, and the NPB duo of Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, both of whom had firm deadlines to sign a contract due to the rules of the posting process. The rest of the offseason’s top free agents are still out there, and while plenty of attention has been paid to the four best hitters available—Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger—less fanfare has been made about the two best pitchers available.
With Cease and Imai off the market, the only two pitchers from MLBTR’s top 10 still available are lefties Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Both are on the shortlist of the most talented lefty starters in the game at the moment, with solid track records of success in both the regular season and postseason. Both players took some time to get their careers into full swing; each became a full-time starter at age-26, though Valdez reached that point during the shortened 2020 season so he didn’t receive a full slate of starts until the following year. Suarez also received a half-season of starts before getting a full workload, as he joined the Phillies’ rotation on a permanent basis in August of 2021 with 12 starts down the stretch and never looked back. Since joining their respective rotations full time, each has proven to be a reliable front-end arm.
In terms of overall track record, Valdez has the edge. Valdez has an extra year as a starter under his belt, but even by that metric, volume is a clear separator. His 153 games started since joining the Astros’ rotation aren’t too far ahead of the 116 starts Suarez has made when factoring that extra year, but Valdez’s 973 innings of work utterly dwarf Suarez’s 654 frames. Things are much closer in terms of results on the field, but Valdez still has the edge with a 3.23 ERA and 3.38 FIP to Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Suarez’s 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 51.3% ground ball rate are all solid. But Valdez’s has the edge in terms of punchouts and grounders, with only slightly more free passes: 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, and 61.5% ground ball rate.
That combination of volume and results may paint the picture that Valdez is clearly the superior arm, but there’s more factors to consider. Suarez and Valdez enjoyed virtually identical platform seasons, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP for Suarez to Valdez’s 3.66 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The pair’s strikeout rate was also mostly the same, (23.3% for Valdez and 23.2% for Suarez), but Suarez took a big step forward in terms of walk rate and issued free passes at just a 5.8% clip to Valdez’s 8.5%.
That ability to cut down walks is certainly attractive, and it’s fair to argue that Suarez is trending upward while Valdez could be starting to show some signs of decline. That’s especially relevant given the age gap between the two; Suarez is two years younger than Valdez, entering free agency at age-30 as opposed to age-32. MLBTR projected both pitchers for five-year deals back in November. Using those predictions, Suarez would be paid through age-34 while Valdez would be on the books through age-36 on an identical contract. Suarez would also be cheaper, at least according to MLBTR, with a $115MM prediction for Suarez compared to a $150MM prediction for Valdez.
In addition, Suarez’s postseason resume is nearly spotless, with a career 1.48 ERA in the playoffs. By contrast, Valdez has a 4.34 postseason ERA. That comes in double the innings (85 frames against Suarez’s 42 2/3 innings of work), but the elder lefty’s work in recent years has been particularly lackluster; he’s posted an 8.27 ERA in his last four playoff starts. A strong postseason resume isn’t typically a major factor in the sort of nine-figure deals Valdez and Suarez are seeking, but it could easily serve as a tiebreaker for some clubs between two pitchers this similar. Another soft factor that could play a role in differentiating the two is an incident last season where Astros catcher Cesar Salazar was struck by a pitch from Valdez in a cross-up situation. Speculation arose at the time that the pitch was intentional on Valdez’s part, though both players declared it an accident afterwards.
How do MLBTR readers view the two lefties, and which would you rather have over the next five years? Are Valdez’s superior volume and results enough to overcome Suarez’s advantages in age and postseason performance? Have your say in the poll below:
Which pitcher would you rather have over the next five seasons?
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Ranger Suarez 58% (5,835)
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Framber Valdez 42% (4,298)
Total votes: 10,133
Mets Prefer Trade Market To Free Agency In Rotation Search
The Mets are still in the market for upgrades to their starting pitching group, but they prefer to bolster the rotation by way of a trade rather than via free agency, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report.
It’s not exactly a surprising revelation. We’re one month removed from initial reporting that the Mets were reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term contract, and the Mets have since shown aversions to long-term deals for incumbent stars like Edwin Diaz and especially Pete Alonso — both of whom have now signed elsewhere. The Mets also traded the remaining five years of Brandon Nimmo‘s contract for three of Marcus Semien. It seems there’s a real push to avoid clogging up the long-term books with many major deals beyond the lengthy commitments to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.
It’s worth noting, too, that the Mets are deep in both top prospects and young big leaguers that could be marketed to other clubs. Their farm system is generally regarded as one of the ten best in the game. Following this year’s draft and trade deadline, Baseball America ranked the Mets’ system ninth in the game. MLB.com ranked it seventh. BA counts five Mets prospects (Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Jett Williams, Brandon Sproat) among the top 100 in the game. Young infielders Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña are all available in trade talks as well, per Rosenthal and Sammon.
One of the market’s most notable trade candidates, Miami righty Edward Cabrera, came off the board yesterday when he was traded to the Cubs for a three-player package headlined by top young outfielder Owen Caissie. Presumably, the Mets would’ve had to pay an even steeper price as a division rival, but Cabrera’s removal from the market only thins out the supply and creates more urgency among teams still looking for meaningful rotation upgrades (e.g. Mets, Yankees, Orioles, D-backs, Padres).
The Mets have been connected to a handful of possible trade targets this winter. They’ve reportedly spoken to the Padres about Nick Pivetta and to the Brewers about Freddy Peralta. They were also among the teams in on Cabrera and had some interest in Minnesota’s Joe Ryan before the Twins signaled that they’re not planning to move him (or rotation-mate Pablo Lopez). They’ve surely at least checked in on other prominent and under-the-radar names on the market alike.
The Mets went to three years to sign Devin Williams in free agency, acquired three years of Semien and (reportedly) were unwilling to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso. Their free-agent deals with infielder Jorge Polanco and righty Luke Weaver only span a two-year term. There’s been no firm indication that they’re wholly against surpassing three years for any free agent, but that certainly seems to be the team’s comfort zone with additions to the roster.
In fact, since being named president of baseball operations, David Stearns hasn’t committed more than three years to any free agent other than Soto, whose signing was more of an ownership-level move. Stearns’ largest signing after Soto was Sean Manaea, whose three-year, $75MM deal contains more than $23MM in deferred money. Currently, the Mets only have four players on guaranteed contracts in 2028 (Soto, Lindor, Williams, Semien). By 2029, Soto and Lindor are the only two players on the books.
If there’s a reluctance to guarantee players anything into 2029 and beyond, as at least ostensibly seems to the be the case, that’ll make it quite difficult to land any of the top remaining free agent names. The Mets sat down with Framber Valdez back in November, and Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that there’s still some interest there. Of course, signing Valdez would surely require going beyond three years — likely to at least a five-year pact. Ranger Suarez, like Valdez, figures to be looking for at least a five-year deal in free agency. If either pitcher lingers into February or March, perhaps they’ll pivot to a shorter-term deal with opt-out opportunities. Beyond that, a match with the Mets seems hard to envision — at least based on the team’s recent tendencies under the current baseball operations regime.
RosterResource currently projects the Mets for a $294MM payroll and just over $296MM of luxury-tax obligations. That puts the Mets about $8MM shy of the top tier of penalization, which they’ve crossed in each of the past four seasons. They currently owe a 95% tax on any dollars spent up to $304MM worth of tax obligations. From that point on, they’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for every dollar spent.
Astros Notes: Valdez, CBT, Infield, Brown
The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.
“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”
It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.
Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.
RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.
Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.
Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.
“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”
Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.
“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”
The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.
Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.
Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.
Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”
It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.
What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.
Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.
A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Valdez, Suarez Among Orioles’ Targets In Continuing Rotation Search
Jan. 6: Both Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez remain under consideration by the Orioles, reports Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner. The O’s have already been reported to have interest in both lefties, but that was prior to their recent slate of pitching acquisitions and prior to their $155MM signing of Alonso, so it’s notable that they’re still shopping in the deep end of the free agent pool even after spending a combined $195MM in free agency and taking on another $26MM or so via trade.
Jan. 5: The Orioles have made a couple of rotation moves in recent weeks but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re done. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report today that the club is still looking for another starting pitcher, which could be either via free agency or the trade market.
Adding to the rotation has been an obvious goal for quite a while. Baltimore starters posted a collective 4.65 earned run average in 2025, which was better than just six other clubs in the majors. At season’s end, Tomoyuki Sugano and Zach Eflin became free agents, further thinning out the group.
Accordingly, the O’s have been connected to a wide number of free agents and trade candidates this winter. They made a notable move a couple of weeks ago, sending four prospects and a draft pick to the Rays for Shane Baz. A week ago, they brought back Eflin via a one-year, $10MM deal with a mutual option for 2027.
If the season started today, the rotation would feature Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Baz and Eflin in four spots. Dean Kremer would be the favorite for the final slot. Guys like Tyler Wells, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich and Brandon Young also on the roster but have options and could be sent to the minors if everyone is healthy. Albert Suárez is back on a minor league deal and prospect Trey Gibson is also lurking as another non-roster option.
That’s a decent group, and a team source describes it as “adequate” to The Athletic. For a club looking to rebound from a nightmare season, it’s understandable that they still want more. That’s especially true considering it’s hard to rely on this collection of arms.
Bradish just returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and made just six starts. He only made eight starts in 2024 before the surgery, so that’s just 14 starts and 77 1/3 innings over the past two years. Wells is similar, having made just seven starts over the past two years due to his own elbow surgery. Rogers was great last year but limited to 18 starts by a knee injury. Due to multiple ailments over his career, he’s never topped 133 innings in a big league season. Baz took the ball 31 times in 2025 and logged 166 1/3 frames but that was his first time going beyond 14 starts and his first time hitting the 80-inning mark. Eflin underwent back surgery in August. He recently said he’s hoping to be ready by Opening Day but that doesn’t seem to be a lock.
Adding another arm would make things a bit cluttered if everyone is healthy, but that’s a big if, considering the total track record of the group. Given the number of depth options, the O’s would presumably be looking for more upside with another rotation addition.
Rosenthal and Sammon mention Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen as free agent possibilities, in addition to trade candidates Edward Cabrera, Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore. That appears to simply be a list of the best pitchers still available, as opposed to reporting on anyone the O’s are specifically targeting, though the club has been connected to those free agents as well as Cabrera and Gore earlier in the offseason.
RosterResource projects the O’s for a payroll of $147MM next year. They opened 2025 at $165MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Signing one of the Valdez/Suárez/Gallen trio would likely require the O’s to pay $20 to $30MM annually. That would involve going beyond last year’s spending but not by much. It’s also possible they could save themselves a few bucks if they can trade Ryan Mountcastle, now that the Pete Alonso signing crowds him out. Mountcastle is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.8MM salary this year.
The trade candidates would cost less financially. Peralta will make just $8MM next year. Gore and Cabrera are projected for $4.7MM and $3.7MM respectively. But of course, the O’s would have to send something of value to those other clubs in trade. As mentioned, the O’s just sent out a big package of prospects in the Baz deal, which may lower their desire to further deplete the farm system with another big trade.
Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images
Astros Notes: Valdez, Meyers, Roster Needs
Houston general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara, the Athletic’s Chandler Rome, and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) on Friday about several matters related to the Astros’ offseason, and there was naturally plenty of talk about the big three-team, six-player trade between the Astros, Pirates, and Rays. The Astros’ end of the deal saw first-year outfielder Jacob Melton and minor league righty Anderson Brito dealt to Tampa Bay, while Houston’s rotation was bolstered by the addition of right-hander Mike Burrows.
Obtaining a controllable and talented young arm like Burrows is a nice get for the Astros, even at the substantial cost of two notable youngsters from Houston’s farm system. As Brown put it, “it’s not easy to part ways with successful pieces that you have that are high-end prospects. But when there are a lot of teams that need starters, that’s where the market is. A lot of teams need starters, and so you don’t want to lose out. So you have to get creative and pull from your depth and maybe fill that spot.”
Burrows might just be the start of Houston’s work on this front, as Brown said his club “will definitely pursue more pitching.” This pursuit has included at least some discussion with Framber Valdez about a potential reunion, but Brown naturally didn’t divulge any details beyond saying that he’s had “some back and forth” with Valdez’s camp.
This is the first indication of any talks between Valdez and the Astros since Brown’s season wrap-up presser at the end of September, when he stated that the two sides would remain in touch. While Brown’s latest comment doesn’t technically provide any new information on this front, it is somewhat notable that Valdez might still remain on Houston’s radar even in a slight fashion, as it has widely been assumed that he’ll be signing elsewhere.
The Astros are known to be looking to avoid paying the luxury tax for the third consecutive season, and Valdez is likely to command a deal far too pricey for Houston’s liking. MLBTR projected Valdez for a five-year, $150MM contract, and such teams as the Orioles, Mets, and Giants have been linked to the two-time All-Star. That interest hasn’t resulted in a deal yet, however, and some obstacles remain for Valdez with any of those suitors — the Giants and Mets reportedly aren’t keen on long-term contracts for pitchers, and the O’s already made a massive free agent strike by signing Pete Alonso.
As long as Valdez remains unsigned, there’s still a chance a deal could be worked out between the two sides. It costs Brown nothing to check in with Valdez out of just due diligence, just in case some common ground could be found or if Valdez’s asking price drops. That being said, the far likelier scenario is that Valdez will be on another team’s roster in 2026, and the Astros will look to add pitching via lower-cost signings, and/or trades.
Brown said he is open to all possibilities on the trade front, though he again suggested that the Astros weren’t necessarily in a rush to trade either from their crowded infield, or known trade target Jake Meyers. Speaking of Meyers specifically, Brown said “it’s a really good deal, we may consider it. But right now, Meyers is going to be a guy for us that’s going to play center field and it looks like he’s the frontline guy as of today.”
The fact that the Astros moved Melton is notable, as he was thought to be a potential heir apparent in center field if Meyers was dealt. Brown said Houston was ultimately comfortable dealing Melton due to the presence of Meyers and Zach Cole as center field options, plus Lucas Spence and Joseph Sullivan further down the minor league pipeline. Beyond Meyers, Cole is the only member of that group with any MLB experience, and Cole’s resume consists of 15 games with the Astros in 2025.
Beyond the rotation, Brown said the Astros are also looking for relief pitching and a backup catcher. Victor Caratini remains available in free agency, though the expectation is that Caratini will be able to find more of a regular catching job with another team than he would be rejoining the Astros to share time with Yainer Diaz behind the plate.
Orioles Remain Involved On Top Free Agent Starters After Alonso Deal
After making a massive splash on offense, the Orioles figure to turn their attention to the rotation. That could also come via the open market, as the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi relays that Baltimore remains in the mix for the top free agent starters. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner similarly suggests that the O’s have ongoing interest in Ranger Suárez.
Baltimore committed $31MM annually on a surprising five-year deal to add Pete Alonso. It’s easily the biggest free agent move of Mike Elias’ tenure leading baseball operations. That also means the long-term books are still fairly open. Alonso joins Ryan Helsley, Tyler O’Neill and Samuel Basallo as the only players signed beyond next season. Helsley and O’Neill come off the books after 2027, while Basallo won’t make more than $4MM in a season until 2030.
A significant arbitration class clutters the short-term picture a little more. RosterResource projects their 2026 payroll obligations around $148MM. (That’s using a $31MM estimated salary for Alonso, but the annual breakdown on his deal hasn’t been reported.) Baltimore had a little more than $159MM committed to their Opening Day payroll in 2025. They’d need to push that higher to make a second notable free agent move, but that appears to be in play headed into the second full season of David Rubenstein’s ownership tenure.
Adding a front-line starter alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish is the clear objective now for Elias and company. Alongside Suárez, they’ve been tied to Framber Valdez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai. Elias has already said he’s open to sacrificing a draft pick to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That applies to Valdez, Suárez and King. They did not give up any draft capital to sign Alonso, who was ineligible for a QO, but their unsuccessful $150MM bid for Kyle Schwarber demonstrates that willingness to add a qualified free agent.
Baltimore is juggling the free agent pursuits against possibilities on the trade front. (Adding another right-handed power bat only further clouds the path to playing time for former top corner infield prospect Coby Mayo, for instance.) The Athletic reported last night that they’ve been among the most aggressive teams in talks with the Marlins regarding Edward Cabrera. Morosi also mentioned Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore as a potential trade target for the O’s. The two parties have had multiple conversations surrounding Gore, who’s controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.
Gore is a natural target for any team seeking rotation help. The former No. 3 overall pick was once the top pitching prospect in the sport, and while he’s yet to develop into an established ace, he’s shown glimpses of that ability. Gore has made at least 27 starts in three straight seasons for Washington. His 4.15 earned run average in that time is solid but not particularly eye-catching. Metrics like SIERA (3.99) and FIP (4.01) are only a bit more bullish.
That said, Gore spent much of the season’s first half pitching like a Cy Young contender. He carried a sparkling 3.02 ERA into the All-Star break — a mark supported by a dominant 30.5% strikeout rate and a strong 7.7% walk rate. That strikeout rate trailed only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown. His 14.2% swinging-strike rate checked in behind only Skubal, Wheeler and Dylan Cease. Gore looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout, finally realizing his ceiling as a No. 1 or 2 starter.
The next three starts were a nightmare. Gore was rocked for 23 runs in just 15 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA into the mid-4.00s. He rebounded over his final seven starts but also spent a couple weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old lefty (27 in February) finished out what had looked like such a promising campaign with a respectable but unremarkable 4.17 ERA in 159 2/3 innings.
Gore is something of an unfinished product, though other more analytically inclined clubs might hope they can coax another level of performance out of him. The Nationals remade their front office this offseason but had generally been viewed as behind the curve when it comes to incorporating data into their pitching development. On a smaller scale, we saw a big jump in Kyle Finnegan’s performance with Detroit. An acquiring team would surely be hoping for similar improvements from Gore. The pieces are certainly in place. Gore’s 95.5 mph average four-seamer is strong, particularly for a lefty, and his 13.3% swinging-strike rate is already excellent as well.
While Alonso isn’t limiting the free agent pitching possibilities, it probably takes them out of the running for another massive move on a bat. Morosi reported yesterday that the O’s had been in contact with Kyle Tucker’s camp. Baltimore always seemed like a longer shot on Tucker, and it’d be shocking if they add him on top of the Alonso agreement. The O’s already brought in Taylor Ward via trade and have a crowded corner outfield mix with O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers. They’re likely to give some DH at-bats to whomever of Basallo and Adley Rutschman isn’t behind the plate and need to sort out whether there’s room on the roster at all for Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.
Mets “Reluctant” To Make Long-Term Offers For Free Agent Starters
While it’s no secret that addressing the top of the rotation is a priority for the Mets this winter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are hesitant to make long-term offers to the top starters available in free agency this winter. Sammon adds that each of Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez would “hold some appeal” to the Mets on shorter-term deals.
At this point, it seems unlikely any of those pitchers will need to settle for something short-term. MLBTR predicted both Valdez and Imai to land six-year deals worth $150MM in free agency this winter as the offseason’s #6 and #7 free agents. Meanwhile, Suarez clocked in at #10 on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $115MM. Right-hander Dylan Cease jumped the market to sign a seven-year deal with the Blue Jays late last month. His $210MM guarantee exceeds the seven-year, $189MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander, although that deal does include deferred money that lowers the net present value of the deal a bit.
Even with that deferred money, however, Cease’s seven-year pact is hardly a troublesome omen for Valdez, Imai, and Suarez. Imai in particular won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until May and that youth figures to help him land a long-term deal this winter. Of course, free agency can be unpredictable. While the trend of short-term deals with opt outs have been more common for position players (Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso) than pitchers in recent years, a few hurlers have found an unexpectedly soft market as well. Jack Flaherty was widely expected to land a long-term deal in free agency last offseason but ended up signing for just two years with the Tigers. Two offseasons ago, Blake Snell was viewed as a shoo-in for a six-year deal but wound up signing with the Giants on a short-term, opt-out laden pact.
Perhaps the Mets are willing to be patient on the free agent market to see if another high-end starter falls through the cracks like Snell did during the 2023-24 offseason. Another option would be to move a tier down in free agency to sign a short-term deal with a player who has still shown front-of-the-rotation upside. Michael King is viewed as being a potential top-of-the-rotation arm whose years will be limited coming off an injury-marred season, and the Mets are among the teams with known interest. Sammon floats Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as other possibilities, either of whom would be plausible fits. Kelly turned in a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts last year, but will be forced to stay short-term by the fact that he’ll play next season at the age of 37. Gallen has shown ace-level upside in the past and is only 30, but enters free agency coming off the worst season of his career.
Another option for the Mets would be to keep tabs on the trade market. Sammon notes that Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is someone that New York would “likely” view as an upgrade to their internal rotation options, to say nothing of more established front-end options like Freddy Peralta or higher upside players like MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera. Keller will make $54.5MM over the next three seasons, while Gore and Cabrera are controlled via arbitration through 2027 and ’28 respectively. Peralta (as well as ace lefty Tarik Skubal, should the Tigers make him available) would only be controlled for one season before they would hit free agency and surely seek the sort of long-term deals the Mets are looking to avoid.
Speculatively speaking, that could make a controllable starter like Keller, Gore, or Cabrera and ideal fit for the Mets. The club already appears motivated to make moves on the trade market this winter, with Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil among the club’s rumored trade candidates. In addition to those veteran names, the Mets have a number of young infielders (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio) who could be made available in the right deal. For a team like the Pirates or Marlins looking to add help on offense, any of those names would surely be attractive pieces to bring into the fold.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that a significant number of starting pitchers move on the trade market this winter. If a run on starting pitching begins in free agency while the Mets are focused on the trade market, the club could find that the patient approach it took backfired and left them without a true front-end talent to pursue—or that they had to pay a premium to land one of the last arms remaining on the market. It’s a difficult needle the Mets will have to thread if they want to land a front-end arm on a shorter-term arrangement, and fans are surely hoping they’ll do a better job of doing so than they did with last winter’s disappointing deals for Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. Of that trio, only Holmes managed to stick in the rotation by the end of the year.