Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Muller, Ruiz, Naylor, Westburg
Our coverage of in-the-news prospects continues. A couple signings and the Sean Murphy trade give us plenty of fodder to chew upon. The Braves did an excellent job of converting unneeded role players into a premium upgrade. We’ll touch on several of the former-Braves now enjoy new homes with the Athletics and Brewers.
Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 495 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511
The Mets continue to fortify their Major League roster, building out a resiliency of depth they’ve lacked for… the entirety of my living memory. The Mets have always been a club of “just enough,” a formula that rarely works in a 162-game season with extended playoffs.
The addition of catcher Omar Narvaez to veterans James McCann and Tomas Nido seemingly gives New York the opportunity to promote Alvarez if and when they believe he is ready for a regular starting role. That could be immediately out of Spring Training or later in the season. Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April. Due to his age, there’s appeal to such an approach.
The recently-turned 21-year-old had a brief cup of coffee to finish 2022. He flashed trademark power, discipline, and a tendency to whiff. At this early stage of his career, he might be a tad too disciplined – a common issue for precocious, discipline-oriented sluggers. Minor league pitchers are exploitable in ways Major Leaguers are not. A second stint in Triple-A – where he compiled 199 plate appearances with a 121 wRC+ – could help him to add a touch of targeted aggression to his approach. Otherwise, he risks carrying over-30 percent strikeout rates early in his career. The tools are there for more acceptable whiff rates. Even without that adjustment, he profiles as an above average hitter.
Then there’s the matter of defense where some of his mechanics are a tad unconventional. This is made necessary by his stocky build. He doesn’t squat as deeply into his crouch as most catchers. Without runners on base, he uses a kneeling approach. There are questions about his blocking (when kneeling) and pitch-framing (when squating). Even his arm, which is at least 60-grade, could play down if opponents correctly guess when he squats and kneels.
Kyle Muller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 134.2 IP, 10.63 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.41 ERA
The highest-rated prospect dealt by the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade, Muller has performed well against Triple-A competition for two straight seasons. With the Braves contending and enjoying considerable rotation depth, Muller hasn’t received many opportunities in the Majors. In total, the southpaw has made 12 appearances, 11 starts, for a total of 49 innings with a 5.14 ERA. Muller has a four-pitch repertoire. Three pitches grade out as average or better. His changeup is considered a platoon pitch. His ascent has been slowed by poor command. Although his low walk rate last season seems a positive development, none of the contacts I reached out to believe his command has truly improved. As of now, he profiles as an inefficient fifth starter or high-upside reliever.
Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 541 PA, 16 HR, 85 SB, .332/.447/.526
The other notable prospect in the Murphy swap, Ruiz had a season to remember in the minors. Neither the Padres nor Brewers gave him many opportunities in the Majors despite rostering him for a considerable chunk of the season. All told, he attempted 102 steals and succeeded 86 times (84.3%) over a total of 576 plate appearances. With new rules on the way, Ruiz could find himself among the stolen base leaders if he hits enough to merit a starting role.
That last detail is in doubt. Despite incredible minor league numbers last season, a half dozen public scouting reports all point to a reserve role. The Athletics undoubtedly hope experience will unlock at least a second-division starter upside – as they attempted with Cristian Pache last season. While he’s drawn some (very) lazy comps to Alfonso Soriano for his combination of power and speed, Ruiz’s hit tool is suspect. He’s shown an ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts, but he seems to do this at the expense of exit velocity. As such, his power plays down in games since he’s so rarely taking his best swing.
Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 510 PA, 21 HR, 20 SB, .263/.392/.496
Between the lost 2020 season and a terrible 2021 campaign, Naylor found himself entering last year with much to prove. He recovered his prospect panache by adjusting his swing mechanics and now profiles as the Guardians catcher of the future. He even made eight plate appearances for Cleveland, though he went hitless with five strikeouts. The defense-oriented Guardians opted to bring in Mike Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal to bridge the gap.
Naylor has rare speed for a backstop. The last catching prospect to display similar wheels was Daulton Varsho. The last such catcher to stick at the position as a longterm starter was J.T. Realmuto. Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews, but it’s merely below average. A scout I questioned believed he can be an average defender. Cleveland’s preference for elite defensive catchers might lead to a position switch for trade for Naylor. I keep thinking back to Varsho, an acceptable but unexceptional catcher who turned into a gold glove center fielder almost overnight.
Jordan Westburg, 23, SS, BAL (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 622 PA, 27 HR, 12 SB, .265/.355/.496
One of my beats last year was with an Orioles blog, Baltimore Sports and Life. At the end of the season, there were two schools of thought regarding the Orioles 2023 middle infield. One group (including me), advocated for signing one of the four free agent shortstops, moving Gunnar Henderson to third base, and using Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at second base until prospects arrived. Others were ready to hand the keys directly to Westburg (or the next guy below) and save the budget for one of the top pitchers on the market.
Baltimore GM Mike Elias opted for Door #3, choosing to ink Adam Frazier on a one-year rebound contract eerily reminiscent of the deal handed to Rougned Odor prior to last season. While Frazier won’t truly block Westburg or others, his presence will help delay the need to promote them. Nevertheless, Westburg is seemingly ready. He spent most of last season in Triple-A where he posted a 129 wRC+. As a hitter, he’s a well-rounded pile of 50-grades. He might be going down a Willy Adames-like path – not a household name but better than a typical core performer. He’s a tad stretched defensively on the left side of the infield, but he should be an above average defender at the keystone. While there’s utility risk here, it’s a premium version of it – in the same way that Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, and Jake Cronenworth are “utility men.”
Four More
Joey Ortiz, BAL (23): One of my favorite Peripheral Prospects, Ortiz isn’t all that highly rated nationally. The Orioles love him. He’s contact-oriented and gets to more game power than you might expect based on his size. He’s trained as a utility man who profiles as a plus defensive second baseman and acceptable elsewhere. He might just beat Westburg to the Majors. Ortiz is already on the 40-man roster.
Jeter Downs, BOS (24): When the Red Sox acquired Downs in the Mookie Betts trade, he was an up-and-comer with impressive minor league stats. With Boston, he developed a serious swinging strike problem – and a commensurate 30 percent strikeout rate. Questions about his hit tool predated the trade, but this outcome feels like a total developmental failure. Now in DFA limbo, Downs looks like somebody another org might be able to salvage.
Freddy Tarnok, OAK (24): It’s been a slow burn for Tarnok who has long profiled as a future big leaguer even without flashing standout skills. He has a four-pitch repertoire, but his secondaries need further refinement. The short path to the Majors is via the bullpen where his velocity might play up. Oakland can afford to be patient.
Royber Salinas, OAK (21): The last notable prospect acquired by Oakland for Murphy, Salinas has starter caliber stuff and poor command. The instinct among evaluators is to move him to relief and watch him take off. He’s entering his Rule 5 evaluation year which could force the Athletics hand.
Francisco Alvarez Undergoes Ankle Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training
The Mets announced this evening that rookie catcher Francisco Álvarez underwent surgery to repair damaged cartilage in his right ankle. The club’s expectation is that’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.
Álvarez is regarded by prospect evaluators as one of the top young talents in the sport. The 20-year-old backstop (21 next month) combined for a massive .260/.374/.511 line in 495 plate appearances between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse this season. The Mets rewarded him with a late-season big league call in an attempt to add some right-handed juice to the lineup as they tried to hold off the Braves in the NL East race. Álvarez collected two hits (including a homer) in 12 at-bats down the stretch, and Atlanta seized the division title. New York carried him on the Wild Card series roster against the Padres but only gave him one plate appearance in the loss.
New York certainly views Álvarez as their long-term backstop, but it’s possible he opens next season back in Triple-A. He only started one game behind the dish in the majors, with some reservation among evaluators about his current defensive level. He’s generally expected to remain a catcher long-term, but the Mets could determine he needs a few more reps behind the plate before taking over as a #1 catcher in the majors.
At some point in the not too distant future, however, Álvarez figures to get that longer look. The Mets have veteran James McCann under contract for two more years at a combined $24.3MM. The Mets would presumably welcome an opportunity to shed some of that money after McCann hit only .195/.257/.282 in 61 games this season. They’re not likely to find much trade interest, and McCann is well-regarded enough as a game caller and defender New York seems likelier to wind up keeping him around. He could eventually move into a depth role as Álvarez gains more defensive experience.
Tim Healey of Newsday first reported Álvarez’s surgery before the team announcement.
Mets Select Francisco Alvarez, Designate Alex Claudio For Assignment
The Mets have made it official: they’ve selected the contract of top catching prospect Francisco Alvarez from Triple-A Syracuse, confirming his previously reported promotion to the big leagues. In a pair of corresponding roster moves, Darin Ruf was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a neck strain, and lefty Alex Claudio was designated for assignment. Alvarez will serve as the Mets’ designated hitter today, batting seventh in his Major League debut.
Considered by most outlets to be among baseball’s ten best prospects — and considered the top prospect in the sport at MLB.com — Alvarez will cap off a monstrous season with his first call to the Majors. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A this year, the 20-year-old slugger posted a combined .260/.374/.511 batting line with 27 home runs, 22 doubles, a 14.1% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 495 plate appearances. He’s been on an absolute tear since returning from a stint on the minor league injured list earlier this month, mashing at a .362/.483/.596 clip over his past 58 plate appearances.
That’s a stark contrast to the veteran Ruf, acquired from the Giants prior to the trade deadline. The 36-year-old has been one of the game’s most potent bats against lefties in recent years but has stumbled to a dismal .152/.216/.197 batting line in 74 plate appearances as a Met — handily being outproduced by the same right-handed slugger for which he was traded; J.D. Davis is batting .280/.375/.525 in 136 trips to the plate as a Giant. (The Mets also sent lefty Thomas Szapucki and a pair of prospects to San Francisco in that swap.)
Alvarez’s first start will come against Braves southpaw Max Fried — a tough opponent but a favorable platoon matchup at least. In 132 plate appearances against southpaws in the minors this season, he’s raked at a .315/.424/.595 clip and slugged 15 extra-base hits (eight homers, seven doubles). Fried is (obviously) more than a cut above the quality of pitchers Alvarez has been facing in Double-A and Triple-A, but he’ll still add some right-handed thump in a pivotal series that could very well decide the winner of the National League East.
Claudio, 30, tossed 3 1/3 shutout innings with the Mets earlier this month, marking his ninth consecutive season with time spent on a Major League roster. A fixture in the bullpens of the Rangers and then the Brewers from 2014-20, Claudio struggled through a poor 2021 season with the Angels and subsequently spent the bulk of the current campaign in Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.44 ERA in 311 2/3 frames in that ’14-’20 stretch between Texas and Milwaukee before serving up a grisly 5.51 ERA in 32 2/3 innings as an Angel. He’s posted a 3.91 ERA in Syracuse this year, in addition to his 3 1/3 shutout innings for the Mets’ big league roster.
The Mets will place Claudio on outright waivers or release waivers within the next couple days. He has more than six years of Major League service time, so he’d be a free agent at season’s end regardless. It’s possible he’ll accept an outright in hopes of potentially being selected back to the roster in the event of an injury, but he’ll be a free agent this offseason regardless.
Mets To Promote Francisco Alvarez
The Mets will promote catching prospect Francisco Álvarez in advance of the team’s pivotal weekend series against the Braves, reports Daniel Álvarez Montes of El ExtraBase (Twitter link). The 20-year-old is one of the sport’s best minor league talents, checking in sixth on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects list.
It’ll be the first major league call for Álvarez, who entered the professional ranks as an amateur signee out of Venezuela. One of the better prospects in the 2018-19 international signing period, the 5’10” backstop has only raised his stock in pro ball. He hit very well in rookie ball during his first minor league season, but he lost a year of game action with the cancelation of the minors in 2020. Álvarez opened the ’21 campaign in Low-A but quickly proved himself far too advanced for the level, and he spent most of the year in High-A.
Álvarez hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs in 84 games at that level, astonishing production for a 19-year-0ld catcher. It vaulted him near the top of prospect lists entering this season, with Álvarez cracking the preseason top 15 at Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN and FanGraphs. He opened the year at Double-A Binghamton and connected on another 18 round-trippers in 67 games. His overall .277/.368/.553 line across 296 plate appearances earned him a bump to Triple-A Syracuse in early July.
The minors’ top level has given Álvarez his toughest challenge to date, but he’s still generally held his own. Over 199 plate appearances there, he carries a .234/.382/.443 slash with another nine homers. He’s striking out at a career-worst 26.1% clip, contributing to the mediocre batting average, but the rest of his profile has remained strong. Álvarez has walked in a stellar 17.1% of his trips to the plate there, and he’s collected six doubles in addition to the longballs.
Between the two upper levels, Álvarez owns a .260/.374/.511 line with 27 homers and 22 doubles over 495 plate appearances this season. That excellent showing has been enough to convince the Mets front office he can hold his own against big league arms, even at his age. Installing him into a pennant race and directly in advance of the Mets’ biggest regular season series of the year is a strong show of faith, but Álvarez has performed well at every rung on the ladder thus far.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the club is likely to break him as a right-handed option at designated hitter. The Mets acquired Darin Ruf from the Giants at the trade deadline in hopes he could fill that role, but that acquisition hasn’t yet panned out. Ruf has a putrid .152/.216/.197 line in 29 games as a Met. He hit a serviceable .216/.328/.373 in 314 plate appearances before the trade, but his struggles since landing in Queens have led to some questions about how manager Buck Showalter will use the DH role. Fellow deadline acquisition Daniel Vogelbach has excelled since coming over from the Pirates and will continue to pick up the playing time against right-handed pitching. Álvarez gives Showalter an alternative to the struggling Ruf for at-bats against left-handers.
It doesn’t seem likely he’ll step directly in as the primary catcher, however. The Mets have veteran James McCann as the starter, with Tomás Nido backing him up. McCann is hitting only .190/.256/.264 in 180 plate appearances, his second straight down year offensively. The veteran has rated as a slightly above-average defender, and he’s drawn strong reviews for his work with the pitching staff. Sending Álvarez behind the plate for the final few games of the season is more than the front office and coaching staff appears to be comfortable with, particularly given McCann’s longstanding familiarity with the staff.
Scouting reports on Álvarez have long suggested he’s more of a bat-first catcher. That’s largely a testament to his offensive potential, but evaluators have expressed some concern about his defense. BA’s scouting report notes that he’s had some inconsistency as a pitch framer and ball blocker. The outlet also suggests that Álvarez’s plus raw arm strength can play down because of some flaws in his throwing mechanics.
There’s general optimism that Álvarez can eventually iron out those concerns and become at least a competent defender. That’s more of a long-term question, though. The immediate pressing issue for the Mets is whether he can make an impact offensively. New York enters the weekend set holding a one-game advantage over Atlanta. New York would also hold the tiebreaker over the Braves if they can take even one of the three contests, so they’d head into next week at the top of the division unless they get swept. Securing their first NL East title since 2015 would come with a corresponding first-round bye, making these final six contests crucial.
Álvarez’s promotion for such important regular season games raises the possibility he’ll also crack the postseason roster. Only players on a team’s 40-man roster by September 1 are automatically eligible to partake in the playoffs. However, players in an organization but not on the 40-man by September 1 can be added to a playoff roster in place of someone on the injured list via petition to the commissioner’s office. That situation is fairly common every postseason, so the Mets shouldn’t have much issue getting Álvarez onto the playoff roster if they desire.
New York will have to add him to their 40-man roster before tomorrow evening’s game. Their roster is currently full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding transaction. He’d have been added to the 40-man after the season anyhow to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, so there’s little harm in bringing him up a few weeks early. Álvarez will collect his first few days of major league service but won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season at the earliest. His fastest path to arbitration-eligibility is after the 2025 campaign, and it’s certainly possible he’ll spend more time in the minors polishing up his defense and at least delaying his free agency trajectory.
In the meantime, Mets fans will get their first glimpse at a player they hope to be a key piece of the franchise’s future. McCann is under contract for two more seasons, due $12.15MM annually through 2024. It stands to reason Álvarez will have an opportunity to supplant him on the depth chart at some point next year. For now, he’ll get his feet in the majors as a bat-first option for the stretch run — with some postseason action perhaps on the horizon.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Prospect Notes: Alvarez, Jung, Casas, Rodriguez
There was some concern that Mets top prospect Francisco Alvarez could require surgery on his ailing right ankle, but the team received relatively good news on that front, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. While Alvarez does have a loose body in his ankle, he won’t undergo surgery and will instead receive an injection to alleviate some of the discomfort he’s been experiencing. The hope is that Alvarez could resume baseball activities as soon as next week.
Alvarez, 20, ranks among the top ten prospects in all of baseball on the majority of publications and is currently the game’s top-ranked prospect at FanGraphs and MLB.com. He tore through Double-A pitching earlier this season despite being one of the league’s youngest players, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers and 16 doubles through 296 plate appearances. However, Alvarez stumbled a bit in Triple-A, slashing just .180/.340/.378 in his first 141 plate appearances. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in Double-A to 28.4% in Triple-A. Alvarez hasn’t played in a game since Aug. 23.
A few more notes on some of the game’s top prospects…
- Rangers fans are (understandably) clamoring for third baseman Josh Jung to make his Major League debut, and general manager Chris Young and interim manager Tony Beasley discussed with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News the team’s decision to hold off on promoting him just yet. Texas is also taking a look at infield prospect Ezequiel Duran, who’s playing third base in the big leagues right now and would be displaced with a Jung promotion. “We have an opportunity to play [Duran] and we just want to take advantage of that until it’s not there,” Beasley said. From a bigger picture vantage point, Jung still has just 83 plate appearances in Triple-A after missing the first four-plus months of the season due to shoulder surgery. Grant points out that Jung still hasn’t gone a full week playing third base every day — he’s spent eight games at DH — and the Rangers will want to see him at the hot corner as much as possible in the big leagues. When Jung originally underwent surgery, the expectation was that he’d miss the majority of the season and perhaps be able to DH for a few weeks late in the year. He’s beaten both the timeline and that DH-only projection, and he’s decimated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .299/.349/.610 batting line. It still seems Jung will debut in the near future, but Young emphasized the organization is focused on his long-term outlook rather than getting his bat into the big league lineup as soon as possible.
- While slugger Triston Casas wasn’t among the Red Sox‘ initial September call-ups, manager Alex Cora said on WEEI’s Merloni, Fauria & Mego show this week that the team has discussed giving Casas his first taste of the big leagues sometime this month (Twitter link via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Casas, 22, missed two months with a high ankle sprain but has been excellent since returning to the lineup in Triple-A Worcester, hitting .300/.410/.515 with five homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 156 plate appearances. The 6’4″, 252-pound first baseman is considered one of the best bats in the minors and ranks 31st or better among all MLB prospects at The Athletic, MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs. The Red Sox will have to add Casas to the 40-man roster this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft anyhow, so there’s plenty of reason to get an earlier look at him.
- Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez made his first appearance for an Orioles affiliate in three months last night, returning from a Grade 2 lat strain that, at one point, threatened the remainder of his season. Rodriguez threw just 31 pitches in 1 1/3 innings with Class-A Aberdeen and exited after back-to-back walks in the second inning. He told reporters after the game that he’d simply hit the pitch count the organization placed upon his first appearance since June 1 (link via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). Considered by many to be the game’s top pitching prospect, Rodriguez overwhelmed Triple-A lineups prior to his injury, pitching to a 2.09 ERA with a 37.4% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate through 56 innings. He’s not on the 40-man roster at the moment, but he’ll need to be added in the offseason or else be Rule 5-eligible, so it’s at least possible the O’s call him up for a big league debut late in the regular season if his rehab work progresses nicely.
NL East Notes: Alvarez, Hernandez, Sanchez
Star Mets prospect Francisco Alvarez is undergoing evaluation on a sore right ankle, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter link). As per other Peter Botte and Mike Puma of the New York Post, the injury isn’t thought to be too severe, though simply given the calendar, there is a possibility that the Mets could shut Alvarez down for what remains of the 2022 season. More will be known in a few days’ time, after Alvarez has been more fully tested.
One of the top minor leaguers in all of baseball, there has been speculation that the 20-year-old Alvarez might receive a call-up to the majors this season, as the Mets haven’t gotten much from the catching position. However, even before his ankle injury surfaced, Alvarez wasn’t off to a great start in his first taste of Triple-A action, batting only .180/.340/.378 in 141 plate appearances. It certainly isn’t the ideal platform to launch a young player into making his MLB debut in the thick of a pennant race, and naturally the Mets want to be as careful as possible with the development of a possible cornerstone player of the future.
Other updates from around the NL East…
- The Nationals shifted Yadiel Hernandez to the 60-day injured list on Saturday, officially ending the outfielder’s season. (In a corresponding move, Washington reinstated left-hander Seth Romero from the 60-day IL and assigned him to Double-A.) Hernandez was retroactively placed on the 10-day IL on August 19 due to a left calf strain, and his third MLB season saw the 34-year-old hit .269/.312/.410 with nine homers over 327 plate appearances. Hernandez has spent much of his Nats tenure as the left-handed hitting side of an outfield platoon, posting roughly league-average offense since the start of the 2021 campaign. He is under team control through 2026, but given his age and the Nationals’ rebuild, it is possible the team might consider moving onto a younger option for next season.
- Sixto Sanchez‘s continued shoulder inflammation will result in a cortisone shot on Monday, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). Sanchez made his MLB debut with 39 innings in 2020, but hasn’t since pitched at any level due to shoulder problems, which included surgery in July 2021. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that Sanchez will get any game action in the majors or minors before 2022 is out, making it another lost year for the Marlins right-hander.
Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Baty, Crow-Armstrong, Langeliers, Bello
Julio Rodriguez is on the verge of a massive contract extension. Who will be the next prospect to ink a mega-deal? Today’s Big Hype Prospects won’t answer that question, but it’s possible we’ll discuss them all the same.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
141 PA, 6 HR, .180/.340/.378
Despite the triumphant return of Jacob deGrom, the Mets divisional aspirations are endangered. Their once dominant lead over the Braves has dwindled to just two games. The club has received exactly 0.0 WAR from their catchers. Alvarez, whose combination of discipline and rare raw power can lead to some irresponsible comps (like former Met Mike Piazza), has held his own at Triple-A. The low batting average is the result of an unfortunate .209 BABIP. Low BABIPs in the minors can be symptomatic of a flaw. Sometimes, they’re just bad luck over a small sample. Alvarez had similar issues in High-A last season (.260 BABIP) so it’s possible his plodding speed and pull-heavy approach might yield an all-or-nothing slugger, especially early in his career. Defensive reviews are mixed and can sometimes leave a Gary Sanchez-like taste on the tongue. He has the capacity and work ethic to stick at the position, but maybe his bat is too potent to subject to the rigors of battery work?
Alvarez would certainly upgrade the Mets lineup over the likes of James McCann and Tomas Nido. However, they’re both talented defenders who have experience with the Mets pitching staff. If New York wants to experiment with Alvarez ahead of the postseason, now is the time to do it.
Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (MLB)
35 PA, 1 HR, .161/.235/.258
Baty’s first exposure to Major League pitching hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. He had only 26 successful plate appearances at Triple-A before he was called upon. Much of his season was spent in Double-A where he hit .312/.406/.544 in 394 plate appearances. Baty is a disciplined hitter who makes hard, low-angle contact. With 91-mph average and 113-mph max exit velocities, he’s already demonstrated his power in just 24 batted ball events. His tendency to keep the ball on the ground could yield a contact profile something like a less-extreme Yandy Diaz. Whereas Diaz is nigh immune to strikeouts, Baty has a bit of swing-and-miss in his game.
Eduardo Escobar is nearing a return which could spell the end of the Baty experiment – at least for 2022. It’s also worth noting that his struggles have occurred over just nine games. He wouldn’t be the first player to need a couple beats before catching his stride.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHC (A+)
235 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .286/.332/.521
Known to many prospect-watchers by his initials “PCA,” Crow-Armstrong was acquired from the Mets as part of the Javier Baez trade in 2021. The Cubs instigated a mechanical change to his swing which has led to above average pull-side power this season. Including a thorough stomping of Low-A pitchers, PCA has 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases across 418 total plate appearances. He’s a gifted center fielder who was originally expected to fit in the Majors as a defensive savant. The addition of power to his profile could unlock a star-level ceiling. There remain issues with his bat including elevated strikeout and swinging strike rates. He’s young for his level and showed better plate discipline in the past. Consider him a volatile work-in-progress who now appears likely to have a role as a future regular.
Shea Langeliers, 24, C, OAK (MLB)
36 PA, 2 HR, .294/.306/.647
A key component of the Matt Olson trade, Langeliers has made an impactful debut. He’s already popped two home runs, four doubles, and a triple in just nine games. That’s par for the course with Langeliers. He has middling plate discipline, plus power, and a below average feel for contact. When he does connect, it tends to be loud. His best trait is defense where he’s expected to be a comfortably positive contributor. The presence of Sean Murphy is only a temporary impediment – it’s widely assumed the veteran Athletic will be traded over the winter.
Brayan Bello, 23, SP, BOS (MLB)
22 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 7.36 ERA
Recently returned from the injured list, Bello had his best big league outing against the division rival Blue Jays. He tossed five innings of two-run ball while compiling seven strikeouts. Bello has a four-pitch repertoire led by a bowling ball 96.5-mph sinker. He also has a slightly harder fastball he can locate up in the zone. A slider and frequently-used changeup round out his pitch mix. In 18 minor league appearances he posted 12.10 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, and a 2.34 ERA. His carrying trait is an over-60 percent ground ball rate which, if maintained, would rank second among qualified starters between southpaw Framber Valdez (67.5%) and right-hander Logan Webb (58.4%). Like many sinker specialists making their debuts, Bello has struggled with free passes. He got away with iffy command in the minors because his stuff played even when thrown down the pike. He’s liable to need an adjustment period in the Majors.
Five More
Mark Vientos, NYM (22): A possible alternative to Baty and Escobar, Vientos is red hot for the month of August. He’s batting .403/.448/.661 with four home runs in 67 plate appearances. He draws negative reviews for his third base defense and is in the process of switching over to first base. The bat appears as if it should play in the Majors at either position, though he might be a tad ordinary at the cold corner. He’s just shy of a 30 percent strikeout rate for a second consecutive season in the upper-minors.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): Rodriguez has been sidelined for nearly three months with a lat strain. He is due to face hitters in a simulated game later this week. It’s possible he could make his debut in late-September.
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Rumors abound of an impending callup for Henderson. Club officials are supposedly pondering the implications on his development. Henderson hasn’t exactly knocked down doors in August, batting .259/.364/.435 with 12.1 percent walk and 31.3 percent strikeout rates.
Robert Hassell III, WSH (21): One of the prizes acquired for Juan Soto, the Nationals aggressively promoted Hassell to Double-A where he’s hit .147/.237/.206 through his first eight games. Like Baty above, it’s not uncommon for young players to scuffle when first presented with a new challenge. And even Mike Trout has eight-game slumps. Strikeouts have been an issue for Hassell since joining the Nats org.
Curtis Mead, TB, (21): Recently recovered from a month-long injury to his elbow, Mead has five hits and two walks over 14 plate appearances. The right-handed slugger could make a useful platoonmate with David Peralta, especially once rosters expand in a few days. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter so getting a jump on his service clock should be seen as acceptable – assuming the Rays can find a 40-man spot. He’s hitting .299/.391/.536 on the year, mostly at Double-A.
Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market
Juan Soto‘s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.
The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.
The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.
The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.
Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.
Astros Exploring Catching Market, Have Discussed Willson Contreras With Cubs
The Astros have been linked to Josh Bell a few times in recent days, but the Nationals first baseman isn’t the only rental bat on Houston’s radar. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras.
More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that Houston is looking into ways to add to the catching corps before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. The Astros have been without veteran backup Jason Castro for nearly a month, and manager Dusty Baker indicated over the weekend that Castro wasn’t progressing as hoped (via team field reporter Julia Morales). That has left the club relying on rookie Korey Lee to back up Martín Maldonado. Lee is one of the better prospects in the Houston farm system, but he’s struggled this year in his first extended crack at Triple-A.
Of course, there are myriad ways in which the Houston front office could address the catching group. If they’re committed to keeping Maldonado as the primary backstop, then a veteran depth option in the Tucker Barnhart mold could suffice. The Tigers would certainly be open to moving the impending free agent for a minimal prospect return.
Contreras, on the other hand, would require sending significant talent back to Chicago. He’s a virtual lock to change uniforms within the next week. Because MLB and the Players Association didn’t agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system for free agents is set to remain in place. The Cubs could theoretically hold Contreras and recoup a draft pick once he signs elsewhere next winter, but they’re far likelier to land a more valuable return via trade.
Maldonado, who has started 70 of Houston’s 97 games behind the plate, is beloved in the clubhouse for his management of the pitching staff. He’s never been a good hitter, though, and his .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season. Maldonado has also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall defender in the eyes of public metrics this season. The Astros clearly believe he brings immense intangible value, but there’s room on paper for an upgrade.
Of course, if the Astros want to keep Maldonado behind the plate, they could make room for Contreras’ bat at other positions. The Cubs backstop has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher. He’s made strides from a pitch framing perspective in recent seasons, improving from one of the league’s worst-rated framers to roughly average in that regard. Passan notes, however, that some contenders have expressed concern about Contreras’ ability to manage a new pitching staff quickly — not an uncommon refrain for catchers who are dealt midseason. Contreras is talented enough a hitter than an acquiring team could plug him in more frequently at first base and/or designated hitter than at catcher for the season’s final few months while still upgrading their offense.
Houston has Yordan Álvarez at DH, although he’s seen sporadic time in left field as well. The clearer path for an offensive upgrade is at first base, where Yuli Gurriel has a disappointing .234/.287/.384 season line. Bell would be a more obvious direct replacement for Gurriel, but it’s not out of the question teams could eye Contreras — owner of a career-best .258/.373/.470 slash — as an option to rotate between DH, first base and catcher rather than as a full-time backstop.
The Astros aren’t the only team in contact with the Cubs about Contreras, of course. The Mets have been tied to him for a few weeks, and both Passan and Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated suggest today he remains a viable target for New York. Ragazzo reports that New York and the Cubs have discussed trade frameworks involving Contreras and Cubs closer David Robertson in a package deal that would send multiple prospects back to Chicago. Ragazzo adds that Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty — the top two prospects in the system in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 — would be off the table. The only other Mets farmhand to make BA’s top 100 is outfielder Alex Ramirez, but players like Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have been in the recent Top 100 mix for various prospect outlets.
Big Hype Prospects: Juan Soto Edition
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a peek at some players who could find themselves shipped to the Nationals in the next 12 days. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, seven teams are currently in the mix for Juan Soto, although a surprise or three are liable to check in on this once-in-a-decade opportunity.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Diego Cartaya, 20, C, LAD (A+)
(A): 163 PA, 9 HR, .260/.405/.550
(A+): 137 PA, 5 HR, .288/.423/.514
Seemingly everybody who goes to watch Cartaya comes away impressed by the precocious catcher. If there’s a flaw in his game, it’s that he’s already embraced an extreme approach as a hitter. His combination of 50 percent fly balls, 50 percent pulled contact, and near-30 percent strikeout rate mark him as a classic slugger. He’s on a 30-homer pace this season – a rarity both for players this young and for catching prospects. He even draws praise as a defender, especially for his arm.
Prior to the lost COVID year, Cartaya had a reputation for aggression. Since then, he’s averaged a 13 percent walk rate in 437 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the more discerning approach is also why his strikeout rate has spiked. There’s wiggle room for more adjustments related to his swing decisions.
The Nationals already have one former Dodger catching prospect in their lineup (Keibert Ruiz). Even so, Cartaya almost certainly would be included in a Soto trade. As a centerpiece, he might have less heft than others we discuss today. We’ve known for over a decade that a pitching prospect is considerably less valuable than an equally skilled positional prospect. That mostly comes down to attrition associated with pitching. Catchers lurk between pitchers and the other positions – various flavors of attrition can play spoiler to an otherwise great prospect.
Additional notable Dodgers prospects include Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot.
Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553
(AAA) 34 PA, .087/.324/.130
If Cartaya is precocious, then I’m not sure we have a word for Alvarez. He’s two months younger than Cartaya and outperformed the Dodger prospect while playing in Double-A. Although it hasn’t gone swimmingly (yet), signs point to improvement ahead. For one, his .125 BABIP and .043 ISO will normalize. Alvarez is arguably the top prospect in the minors.
While the Steve Cohen Mets have shown no qualms with expending resources, their farm system is thin. Moreover, acquiring Soto would ensure they surpass the fourth luxury tax tier. The 80 percent tax rate associated with payrolls over $290MM has already been dubbed the “Cohen Tax.” Many observers believe Patrick Corbin will need to be absorbed as well. Whether or not the Mets are willing to take on these extra expenditures, it’s unclear the Nationals would risk losing another elite outfielder to a division rival.
The Mets next-best prospects are Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Alex Ramirez. Mark Vientos could have modest appeal for his proximity to the Majors.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, (AA)
348 PA, 12 HR, 35 SB, .253/.351/.461
Volpe had a chilly start to his 2022 campaign. Since mid-May, he’s batting .303/.386/.541 with 9.0 percent walk and 14.8 percent strikeout rates. He’s been ready for promotion for weeks if not longer. That he remains in Double-A could reflect the Yankees willingness to trade him at the deadline. As the top true shortstop prospect, he’d go a long way towards landing Soto.
The Yankees know the appeal of generational talents to their fan base, but they also know the value of a good, homegrown shortstop. Volpe has all the makings of a future All-Star. The presence of Oswald Peraza – also a well-regarded shortstop prospect – means the Yankees can probably hang onto a middle infielder for their 2023 campaign. They can attempt to tempt the Nationals with the likes of Jasson Dominguez, Alexander Vargas, and a brace of Major League-adjacent pitchers like Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, and Luis Gil among others.
Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
329 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .304/.392/.486
Like Volpe, Walker has seemingly overstayed his welcome in Double-A and could be hanging out for trade reasons. The Cardinals have sufficient infield depth to consider Walker expendable. As we discussed in this column last week, his prodigious power is somewhat wasted on a grounder-oriented batted ball profile. That same approach has helped him to hit for a high average despite plenty of swing-and-miss.
St. Louis is stocked with a deep system of future contributors even if scouting reports aren’t always enthusiastic. Juan Yepez would match the Nationals desire for a Major League return, and he’s a somewhat awkward fit on the current Cardinals roster. Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Masyn Winn are just a few of the others who might appeal to Washington. They’ll need to offer a lot of quantity to secure a Soto trade.
Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
164 PA, 8 HR, .288/.360/.507
Luciano is currently sidelined with a back injury. Prior to landing on the shelf in early-June, he’d shown considerable improvement in his second exposure to High-A. Not only was he hitting for power again, he also rediscovered his previously adequate plate discipline. Luciano is expected to slide down the defensive spectrum, but there’s still a chance he might stick as a bat-first shortstop.
The Giants system features a few tantalizing talents, but they’re mostly in the low minors. In addition to Luciano and Luis Matos (see below), San Francisco could entice with Kyle Harrison, Patrick Bailey, or Heliot Ramos. Unlike some other suitors, they’d need to spend most of their best prospect capital to consummate a deal.
Five More
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21) and Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): The Orioles might not be everyone’s favorites to land Soto, but their combination of top farm system, nonexistent future commitments, and pivot back to relevancemake them the perfect match – if they’re mentally prepared to make a bold move. Henderson and Rodriguez are now widely-regarded as Top 5 prospects. Baltimore has another dozen prospects who look like future big-league contributors. Henderson has run into some strikeout issues upon promotion to Triple-A. Rodriguez is currently recovering from a lat injury. He was on the cusp of making his Major League debut when he suffered the injury.
Luis Matos, SFG (20): Matos has struggled in High-A this season. His scouting grades point to a bright future. However, unlike many top prospects in this era, his prospect ranking is built upon projection on his frame and tools rather than on-field results. The Nationals have the wherewithal to be picky when dealing Soto. Matos’ inclusion will depend on what their scouts say.
Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): With Julio Rodriguez untouchable – even in a Soto trade – Marte is the Mariners next-best bullet. Since late-June, he’s batting an incredible .390/.478/.729 with as many walks as strikeouts. Seattle can prime the pump with Jarred Kelenic, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Harry Ford, and/or Emerson Hancock.
Robert Hassell, SDP (20): The biggest barrier for the Padres is their long-term finances. They certainly have the prospects to get a deal done including a number of MLB-ready players. Hassell looks like a plausible centerpiece, a player who could join the Majors in late-2023. He’s currently thriving in High-A. If the Padres prefer not to part with C.J. Abrams, Luis Campusano, or MacKenzie Gore – all of whom have big league experience and are well-regarded – then they could offer toolsy youngsters like James Wood and Jackson Merrill. Eguy Rosario and Esteury Ruiz should be appealing too.