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Big Hype Prospects: Juan Soto Edition

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a peek at some players who could find themselves shipped to the Nationals in the next 12 days. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, seven teams are currently in the mix for Juan Soto, although a surprise or three are liable to check in on this once-in-a-decade opportunity.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Diego Cartaya, 20, C, LAD (A+)
(A): 163 PA, 9 HR, .260/.405/.550
(A+): 137 PA, 5 HR, .288/.423/.514

Seemingly everybody who goes to watch Cartaya comes away impressed by the precocious catcher. If there’s a flaw in his game, it’s that he’s already embraced an extreme approach as a hitter. His combination of 50 percent fly balls, 50 percent pulled contact, and near-30 percent strikeout rate mark him as a classic slugger. He’s on a 30-homer pace this season – a rarity both for players this young and for catching prospects. He even draws praise as a defender, especially for his arm.

Prior to the lost COVID year, Cartaya had a reputation for aggression. Since then, he’s averaged a 13 percent walk rate in 437 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the more discerning approach is also why his strikeout rate has spiked. There’s wiggle room for more adjustments related to his swing decisions.

The Nationals already have one former Dodger catching prospect in their lineup (Keibert Ruiz). Even so, Cartaya almost certainly would be included in a Soto trade. As a centerpiece, he might have less heft than others we discuss today. We’ve known for over a decade that a pitching prospect is considerably less valuable than an equally skilled positional prospect. That mostly comes down to attrition associated with pitching. Catchers lurk between pitchers and the other positions – various flavors of attrition can play spoiler to an otherwise great prospect.

Additional notable Dodgers prospects include Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553
(AAA) 34 PA, .087/.324/.130

If Cartaya is precocious, then I’m not sure we have a word for Alvarez. He’s two months younger than Cartaya and outperformed the Dodger prospect while playing in Double-A. Although it hasn’t gone swimmingly (yet), signs point to improvement ahead. For one, his .125 BABIP and .043 ISO will normalize. Alvarez is arguably the top prospect in the minors.

While the Steve Cohen Mets have shown no qualms with expending resources, their farm system is thin. Moreover, acquiring Soto would ensure they surpass the fourth luxury tax tier. The 80 percent tax rate associated with payrolls over $290MM has already been dubbed the “Cohen Tax.” Many observers believe Patrick Corbin will need to be absorbed as well. Whether or not the Mets are willing to take on these extra expenditures, it’s unclear the Nationals would risk losing another elite outfielder to a division rival.

The Mets next-best prospects are Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Alex Ramirez. Mark Vientos could have modest appeal for his proximity to the Majors.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, (AA)
348 PA, 12 HR, 35 SB, .253/.351/.461

Volpe had a chilly start to his 2022 campaign. Since mid-May, he’s batting .303/.386/.541 with 9.0 percent walk and 14.8 percent strikeout rates. He’s been ready for promotion for weeks if not longer. That he remains in Double-A could reflect the Yankees willingness to trade him at the deadline. As the top true shortstop prospect, he’d go a long way towards landing Soto.

The Yankees know the appeal of generational talents to their fan base, but they also know the value of a good, homegrown shortstop. Volpe has all the makings of a future All-Star. The presence of Oswald Peraza – also a well-regarded shortstop prospect – means the Yankees can probably hang onto a middle infielder for their 2023 campaign. They can attempt to tempt the Nationals with the likes of Jasson Dominguez, Alexander Vargas, and a brace of Major League-adjacent pitchers like Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, and Luis Gil among others.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
329 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .304/.392/.486

Like Volpe, Walker has seemingly overstayed his welcome in Double-A and could be hanging out for trade reasons. The Cardinals have sufficient infield depth to consider Walker expendable. As we discussed in this column last week, his prodigious power is somewhat wasted on a grounder-oriented batted ball profile. That same approach has helped him to hit for a high average despite plenty of swing-and-miss.

St. Louis is stocked with a deep system of future contributors even if scouting reports aren’t always enthusiastic. Juan Yepez would match the Nationals desire for a Major League return, and he’s a somewhat awkward fit on the current Cardinals roster. Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Masyn Winn are just a few of the others who might appeal to Washington. They’ll need to offer a lot of quantity to secure a Soto trade.

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
164 PA, 8 HR, .288/.360/.507

Luciano is currently sidelined with a back injury. Prior to landing on the shelf in early-June, he’d shown considerable improvement in his second exposure to High-A. Not only was he hitting for power again, he also rediscovered his previously adequate plate discipline. Luciano is expected to slide down the defensive spectrum, but there’s still a chance he might stick as a bat-first shortstop.

The Giants system features a few tantalizing talents, but they’re mostly in the low minors. In addition to Luciano and Luis Matos (see below), San Francisco could entice with Kyle Harrison, Patrick Bailey, or Heliot Ramos. Unlike some other suitors, they’d need to spend most of their best prospect capital to consummate a deal.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21) and Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): The Orioles might not be everyone’s favorites to land Soto, but their combination of top farm system, nonexistent future commitments, and pivot back to relevancemake them the perfect match – if they’re mentally prepared to make a bold move. Henderson and Rodriguez are now widely-regarded as Top 5 prospects. Baltimore has another dozen prospects who look like future big-league contributors. Henderson has run into some strikeout issues upon promotion to Triple-A. Rodriguez is currently recovering from a lat injury. He was on the cusp of making his Major League debut when he suffered the injury.

Luis Matos, SFG (20): Matos has struggled in High-A this season. His scouting grades point to a bright future. However, unlike many top prospects in this era, his prospect ranking is built upon projection on his frame and tools rather than on-field results. The Nationals have the wherewithal to be picky when dealing Soto. Matos’ inclusion will depend on what their scouts say.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): With Julio Rodriguez untouchable – even in a Soto trade – Marte is the Mariners next-best bullet. Since late-June, he’s batting an incredible .390/.478/.729 with as many walks as strikeouts. Seattle can prime the pump with Jarred Kelenic, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Harry Ford, and/or Emerson Hancock.

Robert Hassell, SDP (20): The biggest barrier for the Padres is their long-term finances. They certainly have the prospects to get a deal done including a number of MLB-ready players. Hassell looks like a plausible centerpiece, a player who could join the Majors in late-2023. He’s currently thriving in High-A. If the Padres prefer not to part with C.J. Abrams, Luis Campusano, or MacKenzie Gore – all of whom have big league experience and are well-regarded – then they could offer toolsy youngsters like James Wood and Jackson Merrill. Eguy Rosario and Esteury Ruiz should be appealing too.

Alderson: Mets Seeking Another Bat, Bullpen Help

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The Mets dropped tonight’s contest against the Braves by a 4-1 score, shrinking their lead in the National League East to  1 1/2 games. At 54-34 with a +70 run differential, New York looks very likely to reach the postseason. Holding off Atlanta to secure a division title and a chance at a top-two seed in the NL (and the associated first-round bye under the new playoff format) is going to be of particular import for the club through the season’s second half.

New York heads into deadline season as obvious buyers, and team president Sandy Alderson shed some light on the club’s target areas today. Chatting with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post on The Show podcast, Alderson indicated the team was prioritizing adding another bat and bolstering the bullpen. He pointed specifically to designated hitter as an area that could be addressed, noting that New York hasn’t gotten the production they’d anticipated out of the position this season.

While he didn’t specifically single out any player who has underperformed in 2022, it’s not especially hard to read between the lines. Aside from quasi-rest days for star first baseman Pete Alonso, the Mets have given virtually all the DH playing time to the duo of J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith. Davis is hitting .240/.328/.353 through 192 plate appearances. Despite strong exit velocities, he’s compiled only 12 extra-base hits (including three home runs). Hitting for power is paramount for Davis, who’s not a strong defender anywhere and is striking out in north of 30% of his trips to the plate.

Smith has had an even tougher year, posting a .203/.281/.301 line in 139 tallies. He’s not connected on a single longball and spent some time on optional assignment to Triple-A Syracuse. Both Davis and Smith have pre-2022 track records of offensive productivity, but their combined .228/.313/.337 showing (entering Tuesday) hasn’t been sufficient for bat-first players.

Over the past few weeks, Heyman has linked the Mets to rental bats Trey Mancini and Nelson Cruz. With Alonso locked in at first base, interest in those players suggested the club was looking into DH possibilities. Alderson flatly stated there’s “probably an opportunity to improve there” and noted that the prospect acquisition cost for defensively-limited bats isn’t likely to be exorbitant.

That could also be true of the bullpen, which Alderson said “needs to be strengthened.” The prospect talent required to land relief help certainly varies depending on the target. Prying away Pirates star closer David Bednar, as an example, would take a massive haul. Yet there are various lower-impact relief arms with lesser windows of remaining control who’d not require a huge prospect return. Mike Puma of the Post suggests (on Twitter) that adding a left-hander could be particularly important; after releasing Chasen Shreve last week, the Mets are down to Joely Rodríguez as the sole southpaw in the bullpen.

Alderson didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets, but there are a number of middle or late-inning arms who look likely to be available. The Cubs (David Robertson and Mychal Givens) and Tigers (Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer and Joe Jiménez) both had multiple relievers placed among MLBTR’s top 50 trade candidates last week. Chafin is one of a handful of southpaws who could change hands, as are Rangers breakout hurler Matt Moore and the D-Backs Joe Mantiply.

While adding a bat and some relief pitching seem to be priorities, Alderson indicated the club didn’t feel a pressing need to address the starting rotation. He pointed to the high acquisition cost that’d be associated with landing an impact starter. Later in the conversation, New York’s president downplayed the possibility of dealing from the top of the farm system in any fashion. “We want to try to preserve the prospects we have,” Alderson told the Post. “We have to be careful about who we move, and for what reasons.” He name-checked catcher Francisco Álvarez and corner infielder Brett Baty as prospects the club was highly unlikely to deal. Alderson pointed to last season’s trade of former first-rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong for half a season of Javier Báez as a deal that dealt a big blow to the farm system in recognition of Crow-Armstrong’s excellent start to the 2022 campaign in Low-A.

The reluctance to deal from the top of the system jibes with a recent report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who wrote last week that the team was likelier to try to leverage their financial power than move top-tier young players. Alderson confirmed as much, saying they’d prefer to “err on the side of money, as opposed to the side of prospects” in trade talks. There’s no guarantee the opportunity to take on a higher-priced player will present itself, but the reluctance to deal from the top of the system seems to cast doubt on the chances of landing an impact starter in the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas mold.

That may also be true of catcher, where the Mets have gotten lackluster production this season. Willson Contreras is the clear top player available at the position, but the Cubs are sure to land a strong return. New York has James McCann under contract for the next two seasons, but the veteran hasn’t provided much at the plate and is currently on the injured list. That’s left the club to rely on the light-hitting duo of Tomás Nido and Patrick Mazeika.

Álvarez is viewed by most evaluators as the franchise’s catcher of the future, but he’s only 20 years old and was just promoted to Triple-A for the first time. Alderson expressed a desire for him to get extended reps against Triple-A pitching before he’d be considered for an MLB look. That’d seemingly leave catching to Nido and Mazeika until McCann returns, particularly with a thin market at the position. Tucker Barnhart and Kurt Suzuki are impending free agents on non-competitive teams, but neither has played well this season. Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino may have been trade candidates, but both suffered long-term injuries that take them out of that picture.

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Leiter, Alvarez, Chourio, De La Cruz

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll mostly focus our attention upon invitees to the Futures Game.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Jones, 24, OF, CLE (AAA)

108 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .311/.417/.500

Once on pace to debut during the 2020 season as a 22-year-old, several factors considerably slowed Jones’s ascent. First, he came back rusty from the lost 2020 minor league season, performing particularly poorly in May. He improved as the season progressed and could have arrived in Cleveland last September if not for a season-ending ankle injury in late-August. He also opened the 2022 season on the injured list while recovering from surgery for the same injury. The Guardians finally appear poised to promote him after a month in Triple-A.

Jones is best known for his plate discipline. Expect him to show the same discerning eye as Max Muncy. Jones has a little more swing-and-miss to his game which could manifest in a 30 percent strikeout rate. Whereas Muncy’s swing has plenty of loft, Jones skews heavily towards ground ball contact. He has the raw power to be a 30-homer threat, but his combination of grounders and infrequent contact leave him projected for only 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances. Although he’s always posted exceptional BABIPs in the minors, he can get pull happy. That could open him up to BABIP-killing shifts. Since his game revolves around walks and balls in play, anything that negatively affects his BABIP could also affect how he’s used.

Jack Leiter, 22, SP, TEX (AA)

48.2 IP, 11.10 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 5.36 ERA

Leiter was aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, and it hasn’t been an easy transition. Optimists can readily spot encouraging signs. He’s held batters to just 44 hits while recording 60 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he’s also issued 28 walks and hit five batters. Command isn’t expected to be a long-term issue for Leiter, but it is one he’s presently battling. He’s issued 16 walks over his last 19.2 innings.

Fortunately, the recent second-overall pick retains all of his glamorous tools. He features three plus offerings – a rising fastball, curve, and slider. He also has an underdeveloped changeup. He’ll represent the Rangers in the Futures Game.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)

(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553

With Adley Rutschman graduated, Alvarez is now the consensus top catching prospect in the minors. He was recently promoted to Triple-A where he’s 1-for-10 in 13 plate appearances. He’s the Mets Futures Game representative.

Alvarez is an advanced hitter. Already one of the youngest players at Triple-A, he features plus plate discipline and huge raw power. At times, he sells out for pull-side contact. His minor league batted ball data include low line drive rates which could manifest as a low BABIP in the Majors. That said, he’s on pace to debut early next season as a 21-year-old catcher, a developmental path which tends to lead to storied careers. His bat will need to carry what could be a below average defensive profile. While he’s not bad enough to move off the position, the Mets might opt to use him as a part-time designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup while allowing certain pitchers to work with a better defender.

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A)

236 PA, 11 HR, 9 SB, .318/.369/.594

Chourio might be the next 20-year-old uber-prospect to debut in the Majors. He will be the youngest participant in the Futures Game. Only 18, he’s already performing impressive feats of strength including three home runs in July. Presently, there’s some swing-and-miss and overaggression to his approach, but not to the extent that either is a problem. We’ll see how these secondary traits develop as he climbs the ladder.

Since earlier this season, I’ve yet to hear or read any description of Chourio that wasn’t effusive in its praise. He’s the hip teenage breakout of the year. MLB Prospect Pipeline actually has him ranked ahead of 2021’s big teenage breakout, Elly De La Cruz. At least one other midseason update will also rank Chourio ahead of De La Cruz.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, CIN (A+)

268 PA, 18 HR, 26 SB, .302/.357/.597

Speaking of De La Cruz, fantasy baseball enthusiasts are undoubtedly drooling over his combination of power and speed. The switch-hitter produces some of the top exit velocities in the minors. He’s built like Oneil Cruz, albeit two inches shorter. The obvious flaws in his game relate to discipline and whiff rate. He could have exploitable flaws as he ascends the minor league ladder. However, we’ve seen other players with this rare athletic-profile improve their strikeout rate enough to become a superstar. Since June 28, a span of 34 plate appearances, De La Cruz has five home runs and a .387/.441/.903 slash. He might not return to High-A after the Futures Game.

Five More

Yosver Zulueta, TOR (24): Zulueta will appear in the Futures Game after already churning through three levels of the minors. His development has been slowed first by Tommy John surgery and then by a torn ACL. He needs to be placed on the 40-man roster after this season (or exposed to the Rule 5 draft) despite having faced only one batter prior to this year. A former big bonus international free agent, Zulueta could move fast as a high leverage reliever, but he might also have the stuff to start with a Spencer Strider-like two-pitch approach.

DL Hall, BAL (23): Since the last BHP, Hall has pitched twice. He’s totaled 10 innings of one-run ball including just four hits allowed and three walks. He struck out 22 of 38 batters faced. Hall is more than halfway to a career-high in innings. He might be seen as ready to get his feet wet in the Majors as a short-burst starter. Notably, his 5.77 BB/9 in Triple-A could be a barrier to starting long-term. Of qualified pitchers, Dylan Cease ranks last with 4.21 BB/9. Pitchers with higher walk rates don’t pile up innings. Hall will not be attending the Futures Game.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson is the Orioles Futures Game representative. He’s also jumped into the Top five on the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline. He’s actually in his first funk of the season, batting just .133/.188/.167 with 15 strikeouts over his last seven games (32 PA).

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): The Phillies have left O’Hoppe in Double-A where he’s batting .270/.383/.521 with 14 home runs and five steals in 256 plate appearances. His offensive numbers could be inflated both by Reading and a weak Double-A pitching environment. Either way, he profiles as a future big league regular. If the Phillies remain in contention in the upcoming weeks, he’s their one big, expendable trade chip. He might stay in Double-A through the deadline.

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): Like many pitching prospects, Harrison’s workload was carefully managed early in the season at High-A. Upon promotion to Double-A, he’s been making normal starts typically in the range of 20 to 24 batters faced. He’s on track to make his Major League debut in 2023. His mechanics offer an uncomfortable look. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a front angle. He has a floor as a high-leverage reliever, but he’s likelier to be used as a mid-rotation pitcher.

NL Central Notes: Carpenter, Alvarez, Cubs, Lindor, Reds, Eckstein

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After struggling in both 2019 and 2020, Matt Carpenter has reshaped his offseason training routine in advance of what he considers to be a make-or-break year or perhaps even his final year in the big leagues, Carpenter tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Carpenter’s contract with the Cardinals is up after the 2021 season, unless he records at least 550 plate appearances to trigger an $18.5MM vesting option for 2022.  “As far as guarantees, this is the last guaranteed trip to spring training, period, for me.  Maybe for any baseball team, let alone St. Louis,” Carpenter said.  “I think about that, and that’s why I say it’s such an important season for me personally.  And that’s not even to say whether I want to play past this season.  I just want to finish strong.”

Carpenter is entering his age-35 season, and he is likely correct in guessing that another tough year will greatly lessen his chances at anything beyond a low-cost MLB contract or even a minor league deal next winter.  Carpenter finished ninth in NL MVP voting as recently as 2018, but has since hit .216/.332/.372 over 661 plate appearances in 2019-20.  Between the Cardinals’ COVID-19 outbreak and the compressed schedule of make-up games once they returned to play, Carpenter didn’t feel the 2020 season was “a fair representation, hitting or pitching, good or bad” for the entire club.  Still, Carpenter knows he needs to get on track, saying “the last two seasons, in my eyes, our offense has been about a bat short….I have basically been the one bat missing.  I put a lot of the responsibility for the offensive woes the past two seasons on myself.”

More from the NL Central…

  • As rumors swirl about Kris Bryant trade talks between the Cubs and Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Chicago has a particular interest in Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez.  Currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 58th-best prospect in all of baseball, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs (and probably many other teams) would like to have Alvarez in their farm system, particularly if Willson Contreras might also soon be dealt away from Wrigleyville.  In regards to a Bryant trade, it seems unlikely that New York would deal Alvarez for just one year of Bryant’s service.  Even with James McCann now signed to a four-year deal, Alvarez might still be the Mets’ catcher of the future since he is only 19 years old, so the Mets surely have their eyes on grooming Alvarez to be ready by the time McCann’s contract is up.
  • “The Reds were not involved in making any push to acquire Francisco Lindor” before the Indians dealt Lindor to the Mets on Tuesday, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  Acquiring Lindor to fill their hole at shortstop would’ve been quite the pivot for the Reds, whose offseason focus to this point has largely been on cutting salary, between trading Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, non-tendering Archie Bradley, and being open to trade offers for many high-priced stars.  This isn’t to say that Cincinnati might not yet sign a shortstop from amongst the well-known free agent names still on the market, but Lindor was likely a bridge too far, given the prospect cost to pry him away from Cleveland and the likelihood that the Reds wouldn’t be able to sign Lindor to an extension beyond the 2021 season.
  • David Eckstein is leaving the Pirates after two years as a special assistant to the baseball operations department, according to Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports (Twitter link).  Eckstein made the move in order to spend more time with his family.  The former 10-league MLB veteran is best remembered for his role in helping both the 2002 Angels and 2006 Cardinals win the World Series, even capturing Series MVP honors with St. Louis.

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