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Henry Davis

Pirates To Promote Henry Davis

By Mark Polishuk | June 18, 2023 at 10:57pm CDT

The Pirates are preparing to call up Henry Davis to the majors on Monday, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link).  Davis is expected to make his MLB debut in the game against the Cubs.

Selected with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft, Davis will be making a pretty quick trip to the majors, though it’s hard to argue that the catcher isn’t ready.  Davis has been crushing the ball at every level, including a .286/.432/.514 slash line over 45 plate appearances at Triple-A.  Though Davis was only recently promoted to Triple-A and has only 10 games under his belt at the top minor league level, the Pirates have seen enough to believe he is ready to contribute in the Show.

The timing of the promotion can’t be overlooked, as if Davis remains on the big league roster for the remainder of the season, he’ll only amass 105 days of Major League service time.  This all but ensures that he won’t achieve Super Two status, and thus won’t gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility.  Given how the Pirates surely feel Davis can be a cornerstone player for years to come, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the small-market team already has an eye on the catcher’s future price tag, assuming he lives up to expectations as a future star.  Finances also factored into the Bucs’ selection of Davis in the first place, as he signed for a $6.5MM bonus that was well below the slot value attached to the first overall pick.

Davis was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season, with Keith Law (who had Davis 30th), Baseball Prospectus (46th), MLB Pipeline (57th) and Baseball America (73rd) all ranked him amongst the game’s top minor leaguers.  Law cited Davis’ wrist injuries in 2022 and his need to improve against offspeed pitching, but Law was perhaps highest of the pundits on the Louisville product’s potential because Law believes Davis will be able to stick at catcher — far from a universal opinion among scouts.

While Davis has played some right field during his young pro career, that could be less a reflection of his defense than the fact that Pittsburgh also has another top catching prospect in Endy Rodriguez.  Because Rodriguez can also play the outfield as well as second place, there’s a chance that neither of the Pirates’ “catchers of the future” ultimately end up as catchers, though having both players gives the Bucs some flexibility in determining the best path for both players.  Davis’ plus hitting ability makes him valuable wherever he lines up on the field, though it would naturally have the most impact coming from the catcher position.

Austin Hedges and Jason Delay have mostly split catching duties in Pittsburgh this season, with Hedges contributing his usual excellent defense but next to nothing at the plate, while Delay has hit .304/.371/.418 over 91 PA.  Since the Pirates obviously aren’t bringing Davis up to sit him on the bench, it creates an interesting short-term issue for the Pirates in determining which catcher stays.  Delay still has three minor league options so the likeliest scenario is that he is sent to Triple-A while Hedges stays as a glove-first complement and perhaps a defensive mentor to Davis.  Should Davis establish himself as a big leaguer, Delay might become an interesting trade chip for the Pirates to market at the trade deadline.

It’s a whole lot to ask that Davis can provide an Adley Rutschman-esque impact on the Pirates lineup, replicating how Rutschman’s promotion almost instantly sparked the Orioles from rebuilding team to contender in 2022.  However, the Pirates have a 34-35 record but are only 1.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and 3.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Given the compact nature of the National League standings, the Pirates still have a chance of mounting a playoff push, but at the very least the team has already shown that their rebuilding status is over.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Henry Davis

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Central Notes: Cardinals, Yarbrough, Pirates

By Nick Deeds | June 18, 2023 at 10:07pm CDT

The Cardinals could activate outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the injured list as soon as tomorrow, according to John Denton of MLB.com. Nootbaar, who has been on the IL since the beginning of the month with a lower back contusion, has slashed .266/.380/.390 in 184 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, good for a 118 wRC+.

As discussed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar’s return will create something of a conundrum for Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, who has moved Tommy Edman from shortstop to the outfield in recent weeks, a change the switch-hitter has taken well to. Goold suggests that the return of Nootbaar, who can play quality defense in all three outfield spots, would give Marmol the option to shift Edman back to the infield, with Nootbaar taking over center and Nolan Gorman spending most days at DH. Otherwise, Marmol could leave Edman in the center and use Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson in the corners while allowing Jordan Walker, who has struggled to adjust to outfield work after spending most of his minor league career on the infield dirt, to DH.

Whatever defensive alignment the Cardinals end up with, Nootbaar’s return figures to help boost the club as it struggles to stay relevant in the NL Central. Despite an abysmal 29-43 record leaving them 8.5 games back in the NL Central, St. Louis still has a 12.1% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, thanks to their weak competition in the division.

More from around the Central divisions…

  • Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is set to begin a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tomorrow, per a club announcement. That’s fantastic news for not only fans in Kansas City, but all around baseball considering the circumstances of Yarbrough’s injury. The lefty was placed on the injured list in early May with multiple head fractures after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Oakland slugger Ryan Noda. Prior to his injury, Yarbrough had struggled badly across ten appearances with the Royals, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work.
  • Following today’s news that the Pirates are poised to promote 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis to the majors tomorrow, manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos, that the club’s current catching tandem of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay would remain on the roster. With Pittsburgh planning to carry three catchers as Davis breaks into the majors, it’s worth wondering how the club plans to use Davis. While the youngster was drafted and has been used primarily as a catcher, he’s also started 15 games in right field over the past two seasons while mixing in starts at DH. Of course, the DH slot in Pittsburgh is largely occupied by Andrew McCutchen, leaving right field as Davis’s most likely home on days where Hedges or Delay start behind the plate. Connor Joe and Josh Palacios are currently manning right for the Pirates in a timeshare.
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Kansas City Royals Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Austin Hedges Henry Davis Jason Delay Jordan Walker Lars Nootbaar Ryan Yarbrough Tommy Edman

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Pirates Notes: Cruz, Davis, Rodriguez, Hedges

By Anthony Franco | June 5, 2023 at 9:35pm CDT

The Pirates hammered out the largest contract in franchise history this spring, ending the long-running Bryan Reynolds saga with a $100MM extension. Shortly after finalizing that deal, owner Bob Nutting said the Bucs were hoping to get long-term contracts done with other players.

Nutting didn’t tip his hand as to which players the Bucs were interested in signing, though it’s easy to speculate about potential candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is one option, as the 6’7″ infielder has hit 19 home runs in his first 98 big league games.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Pirates and Cruz’s representatives at Vayner Sports had discussed a longer-term deal during Spring Training. According to Mackey, talks never got particularly close and seem to have been tabled during the season.

That’s hardly a huge concern. Cruz entered the season with less than one year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2028 campaign and seems unlikely to qualify for arbitration before 2026. There’s plenty of time to rekindle talks down the line. Even if nothing ever comes together, the Pirates can keep him around for the bulk of the decade.

The more immediate concern is Cruz’s health. The 24-year-old broke his left ankle nine games into the season. He underwent surgery that came with a four-month recovery timeline, putting his projected return sometime in August. Manager Derek Shelton said over the weekend that Cruz’s rehab remains on schedule, while the young slugger reiterated he expects to return this season (link via Justice delos Santos of MLB.com).

Without Cruz, the Pirates have used a rotating cast at shortstop. Rodolfo Castro and Tucupita Marcano have split the bulk of the reps while Ji Hwan Bae and Chris Owings (who was recently designated for assignment) have also factored in. They’ve done a solid job offensively. Bucs’ shortstops entered play Monday with a .254/.336/.398 line that placed them in the top half of the league in all three slash stats. It’s been a struggle on the other side of the ball, however. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have rated Pirates’ shortstops among the two worst defensive groups this year.

Cruz isn’t without defensive questions himself. He’s faced some predictable skepticism about whether he’ll be able to stick at shortstop given his height and extremely long levers. His massive power-speed upside made him a top-tier prospect in spite of those questions, though, and the Bucs are surely hoping he’ll contribute to a potential playoff push down the stretch.

Pittsburgh has plenty more young talent approaching the major league level. Their rebuild has led to one of the game’s deeper organizational pipelines, which will be further strengthened when they pick first overall this summer. It’s the second time in three years they’re at the top of the draft.

In 2021, the Bucs tabbed Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the top selection. Two years later, he’s reached the highest minor league level. The Pirates promoted Davis to Triple-A Indianapolis yesterday, a deserved bump after he mashed at a .284/.433/.547 clip in Double-A Altoona.

Davis joins 23-year-old Endy Rodríguez — an arguably even more talented prospect — as catchers with Indianapolis. General manager Ben Cherington addressed the enviable “problem” of having two young players of that caliber sharing reps in Triple-A (link via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). Cherington indicated it’d be a roughly even split of playing time behind  the dish, with both players also seeing time at other positions.

Davis has gotten some work in right field this year. Rodríguez has played left field and second base in the past but been limited to catcher or first base in 2023. Cherington noted that neither is being considered for a full-time position switch, as any non-catching work is primarily a means of getting both in the lineup concurrently.

While many Pirates’ fans are surely pining for a look at one of those young players at the major league level, Cherington pushed back against the possibility of an imminent call-up. He expressed confidence in the duo of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay as a defensive pairing.

Hedges, signed to a $5MM free agent contract, is generally regarded as one of the sport’s best defensive backstops. He annually draws elite marks for his pitch framing and ability to block balls in the dirt. Hedges has been solid at controlling the running game and is routinely praised for his management of a pitching staff. That acumen is enough for teams to overlook a lack of offensive contributions, as he’s among the sport’s least effective hitters on an annual basis. He owns a .179/.240/.221 line through his first 110 plate appearances as a Pirate.

Delay has a much better .310/.359/.437 slash on the season, though he’s unlikely to sustain anything approaching his current .404 batting average on balls in play. He’s gotten solid marks from Statcast for his pitch framing over the past two seasons, however. So long as the Pirates are using Hedges as the primary catcher, it’s sensible to keep the 28-year-old Delay as the #2 option while letting Davis and Rodríguez play regularly in Triple-A.

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Notes Pittsburgh Pirates Austin Hedges Endy Rodriguez Henry Davis Jason Delay Oneil Cruz

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Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

By Brad Johnson | May 22, 2023 at 5:35pm CDT

Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

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Baltimore Orioles Big Hype Prospects Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Ethan Salas Evan Carter Gavin Williams Henry Davis Jackson Holliday Junior Caminero Matt McLain Nolan Jones

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Big Hype Prospects: Merrill, Marte, Davis, Yorke, Winn

By Brad Johnson | October 28, 2022 at 6:49pm CDT

Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. A general note before we dive in – I’m relaxing the definition of “big” so we can continue to cover different active players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Merrill, 19, SS, SDP (A)
AFL: 73 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .308/.356/.431

Merrill was the 27th overall selection in the 2021 draft. One of the youngest players in the AFL, he’s held his own in Arizona after a promising regular season split between the complex and Low-A. He’s now arguably the top prospect in a Padres system that traded the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and James Wood.

Merrill has the look of a throwback shortstop. He’s smaller than many of the current crop of shortstops and has a swing geared more for all-field contact than generating power. He appears to be a high-probability future big leaguer. It’s possible he’ll top out as a utility guy if certain aspects of his game – such as first-step quickness in the field – don’t age well. His defensive aplomb will go a long way toward determining his future role.

Noelvi Marte, 21, SS, CIN (A+)
AFL: 58 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .208/.345/.333

Marte hasn’t been particularly effective this fall – possibly a sign that he’s out of gas after a 520 plate appearance regular season split between Seattle and Cincinnati’s High-A affiliates. Marte has also been prone to streaks this year so he still has plenty of time to turn things around with a couple big games. Encouragingly, he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts. He recently hit a titanic 461-foot home run, showcasing his premium power upside.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
AFL: 53 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .256/.415/.462

One of two exciting, near-Majors catching prospects in the Pirates system, Davis managed just 236 plate appearances during the regular season due to injuries. He’s mostly in Arizona to work on his defense. If he doesn’t improve in all defensive facets, he could eventually move to first base where his bat should still play – just a lot less excitingly. He’s shown more than his characteristic plate discipline this fall. While one home run seems disappointing for a player with premium raw power, he’s also hit five doubles.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, BOS (A+)
AFL: 76 PA, 1 HR, .328/.434/.492

Yorke was one of a few players with more to prove than most in the AFL. He’s mostly succeeded. Yorke currently leads the league in plate appearances and doubles (7). He also has 15.8 percent strikeout and walk rates. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope Yorke can fit in as a future leadoff hitter, and he’s filled that role ably this fall. Lately, it’s been shared that Yorke played through nagging injuries which might have led to his poor performance at High-A. Occasionally, the “nagging injury” card is played to distract from the real reasons for a lousy season. A healthy 2023 campaign could do much to restore confidence in Yorke’s future role in Boston.

Masyn Winn, 20, SS, STL (AA)
AFL: 52 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, .300/.462/.375

Winn is an up-and-coming prospect. At present, the tools are more obvious than the actual statistical outcome. He’s a plus runner who has the capacity to hit for power. Scouts have noted that his game approach doesn’t always tap into those tools – as if he’s selling out for contact at the expense of power. Given that he’s a Cardinals prospect – a system that has long valued discipline and contact – this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Should Winn access more in-game power next season, he could climb onto Top 10 prospect lists. In the AFL, he has just one extra-base hit, though he’s otherwise performed well including 12 walks to just eight strikeouts.

Five More

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Simon currently leads the AFL with 18 RBI. He’s the sort of player the Rays system tends to produce in bulk. He can play second or third base. During the regular season, he hit 22 home runs with 34 steals over 473 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of the season at High-A. Rule 5 eligible, Simon might not be doing enough to claim a 40-man spot with the roster-crunched Rays. If so, we could see him in the Majors next April as a Rule 5 draftee.

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The Cardinals will have a difficult choice with Thomas. He is also Rule 5 eligible. A ground ball machine who worked to a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings this season, Thomas should find himself on a 40-man roster before long. While he didn’t succeed at preventing runs during the regular season, the 5’ 11’’ southpaw features plus command of a four-pitch repertoire. He’s arguably the top-performing pitcher in Arizona, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 17.2 innings. His slider in particular looks like it could play up in a relief role.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert is the AFL’s top-performing reliever. He has 15 strikeouts with just one walk and no hits allowed in 7.2 innings. Acquired in the Mike Brosseau trade with the Brewers, Reifert has an upper-90s fastball and a two-plane, borderline elite slider. The right-hander has historically struggled with command, though he’s mostly avoided walks this year. He’s on pace to debut next season.

Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

Zach Britton, TOR (23): Yet another catching prospect in the catcher-rich Blue Jays system, Britton is a highly disciplined left-handed hitter roughly in the mold of Cavan Biggio. Britton isn’t nearly as maxed out on fly ball contact which should help him to hit more consistently than Biggio. Britton should receive more attention from prospect outlets next season as he approaches a Major League debut. He’s currently second in the AFL in OPS with a .457/.524/.686 (1.210 OPS) triple-slash in 40 plate appearances.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Henry Davis Jackson Merrill Masyn Winn Nick Yorke Noelvi Marte

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Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, McLain, Davis, Davis, Priester

By Brad Johnson | September 30, 2022 at 3:39pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we pretend the offseason isn’t looming over us whilst we ponder prospects on the way to the Arizona Fall League. The AFL kicks off on October 3. We’ll aim to focus on players who weren’t thoroughly covered in previous episodes of BHP, i.e. Cardinals third baseman Jordan Walker. He happens to be the top-rated prospect tabbed to play in Arizona this fall.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 21, OF, PHI (AA)
264 PA, 4 HR, 29 SB, .260/.333/.387

After an icy start to the season in High-A where he hit a meager .230/.287/.325 in 292 plate appearances (3 HR, 33 SB), Rojas got his act in gear and earned a promotion to Double-A where he produced an exactly league-average batting line. A source theorized he was striving to produce home-run power, and it backfired. Prior to the season, Rojas cited Ronald Acuna Jr. as his aspirational goal. One could see how such a lofty target might lead a prospect to struggle.

Rojas is best known for his elite defense and speed. This season, he swiped a total of 62 bases in 67 attempts and only 556 plate appearances. With new baserunning rules coming into effect, Rojas profiles to be among the league leaders in stolen bases over the next half-decade. Although he’s not as strikeout prone as Adalberto Mondesi, he might prove frustratingly similar. He can deliver surprisingly potent exit velocities, but he mostly makes modest contact due to poor discipline and off-balance swings. Without a breakthrough, he profiles as an above-average centerfielder who hits something like .240/.290/.350 and makes up for it on defense and the basepaths.

Rojas is Rule 5 eligible this winter and will certainly be added to the roster.

Matt McLain, 22, SS, CIN (AA)
452 PA, 17 HR, 27 SB, .232/.363/.453

McLain is a well-regarded prospect in scouting circles, but he can get a bit lost in a system that also boasts the inimitable Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte up the middle. Entering the season, he was regarded as a bat-first future second baseman whose lack of power could lead to a utility role. It appears he attempted to sell out for power this season with modest effect. He hit 17 home runs and more flies than grounders – a good foundation for a player who will call Great American Smallpark his home venue. Unfortunately, he also posted a 28.1 percent strikeout rate – unsightly for a player whom scouts believe has a 60-grade hit tool. Discipline could play a role here as well. He walked in 15.5 percent of plate appearances, a sign of borderline passivity.

Optimists might note that Gunnar Henderson had similar characteristics last season. He made better swing decisions in 2022 en route to number one prospect status. McLain doesn’t have the same raw tools as Henderson, but he could seek to follow the same roadmap from Double-A to the Majors.

Henry Davis, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 136 PA, 4 HR, 3 SB, .207/.324/.379

Davis only managed 255 plate appearances across four levels due to a left wrist fracture. That’s not an auspicious form of injury for a player whose defensive prowess is actively questioned. All aspects of his defensive profile need improvement. The profile has a vaguely Gary Sanchez-like feel – both for defensive reasons and because light-tower power is his carrying trait. Unlike Sanchez, Davis has plenty of feel for contact and could probably comfortably profile as a first baseman. The Fall League will give him an opportunity to catch up on lost reps.

The Pirates have interesting questions to answer in the next two seasons. Both Davis and Endy Rodriguez (featured last week) profile as offensive catchers who might fit better at another position. Rodriguez appears to be the better defensive catcher and is slightly ahead developmentally so Davis might find himself used more like Daulton Varsho – a guy who can catch in a pinch but typically fields another position.

Brennen Davis, 22, OF, CHC (AAA)
174 PA, 4 HR, .191/.322/.319

Davis suffered a lost season of sorts, making only 204 plate appearances across three levels. On the whole, he struggled mightily. He missed three months with an unusual back injury – a blood vessel deformity that led to debilitating pain. The issue was corrected surgically. Davis will seek to recover his 2021 form which included excellent production in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Given the nature of his injury, it’s premature to adjust his status as a prospect until we can learn more about his recovery. He has swing-and-miss issues which could limit his production – especially if the injury has sapped his athleticism. Scouting reports tend to focus on the many adjustments he has ahead of him while noting his previous success with making similar adjustments.

Quinn Priester, 21, SP, PIT (AAA)
AA: 75.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 2.87 ERA

Although he finished the year in Triple-A, Priester spent the bulk of his campaign at Double-A where he performed well. An oblique injury limited him to only 90.1 innings on the season. For that reason, he’ll attend the AFL. Typically, top pitching prospects only join an Arizona roster if they need to make up for lost innings.

Priester is trending towards a 2023 debut. He’s credited with an impressive curveball and three useful variants of fastball. The repertoire as a whole doesn’t tunnel well which is likely to hold him back from future acedom. However, his ability to miss bats and induce weakly hit ground-ball contact could make up for his shortcomings. Only recently have developmental processes put so much emphasis on pitch tunneling. Plenty of pitchers succeeded in the past (and today) despite a relative lack of tunneling. That said, there’s anecdotal evidence that pitchers without tunneled repertoires take longer to adjust to the Majors.

Five More

Andy Pages, LAD (21): The Dodgers are adept at putting their prospects in positions to succeed, so I often find myself skeptical of their top-rated players. Pages has posted remarkable power output throughout his rise through the minors, but his extreme pulled, fly ball approach could render him a one-dimensional threat. He was a roughly league-average hitter as a 21-year-old at Double-A.

Nick Gonzales (24): Gonzales remains a bit of an enigma. He passes all the eye tests, but his statistical performances leave much to be desired. As a 23-year-old at Double-A, he hit .263/.383/.429 with only seven home runs and five steals in 316 plate appearances. He struggled to make contact with a 16.0 percent swinging strike rate and 28.5 percent strikeout rate. Minor adjustments could unlock major results.

Jackson Merrill, SDP (19): A 2021 first-rounder, Merrill will be one of the youngest players in the AFL. The 19-year-old had an encouraging debut in Low-A, batting .325/.387/.482 in 219 plate appearances. There are questions about his ability to handle high heat or ever generate much power – both of which are probably premature for a player this young.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Another 2022 draftee, Gelof got a brief taste of Triple-A last season then spent most of this season in Double-A where he posted an ordinary .271/.356/.438 triple-slash (105 wRC+). Gelof looks the part of a future big league, possibly a second-division starter.

Warming Bernabel, COL (20): Bernabel earned a promotion to High-A late in the season and saw his plate discipline erode (1.8 percent walk rate). Otherwise, he performed ably with a .305/.315/.486 triple-slash in 109 plate appearances. He had more well-rounded success in Low-A where he hit .317/.390/.504 with 10 home runs and 21 triples in 300 plate appearances. At this stage of his career, Bernabel is considered too aggressive to thrive in the Majors, though he does seem to have a knack for squaring up the baseball – even outside of the strike zone.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Brennen Davis Henry Davis Johan Rojas Matt McLain Quinn Priester

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Pirates Sign First Overall Pick Henry Davis

By Steve Adams | July 18, 2021 at 9:02am CDT

The Pirates announced this morning they’ve come to an agreement with first overall draft pick  Henry Davis. Davis will receive a $6.5MM signing bonus, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

The #1 overall pick came with an accompanying slot value of $8.4153MM, so Davis’ bonus lands a little less than $2MM under slot. Pittsburgh was surely aware of his willingness to sign for less than slot value before selecting him, with his bonus demands playing a role in their eventual choice.

The Pirates’ collection of picks came with a cumulative bonus pool of $14.394MM, the largest amount in this year’s class. Teams are permitted to exceed their bonus pool by up to five percent without forfeiting future draft choices, giving Pittsburgh around $15.11MM to allot to their draftees among the top ten rounds. With Davis signed, the Pirates still have around $8.61MM to spend on their crop of Day Two selections.

Davis, a 21-year-old catcher out of Louisville, catapulted himself into the mix for the No. 1 overall selection with a massive junior season. The Bedford, N.Y. native raked at a .370/.482/.663 clip and clubbed 15 home runs to go along with nine doubles — all while walking (31 times) more than he struck out (24).

Davis wasn’t the consensus or even the expected top pick in the draft, although the majority of pre-draft rankings listed him as a Top 5 overall talent. He ranked No. 2 at FanGraphs and at The Athletic; No. 4 at Baseball America and ESPN; and No. 5 at MLB.com, for instance. The Pirates’ decision to opt for Davis saved them a little bit of money with respect to the top overall draft slot, but any savings figure to be reallocated to an impressive crop of top-ranked talent they managed to secure at draft slots further down the board.

As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper highlights, the Pirates’ first four selections — the fourth of which came at No. 72 overall — were all regarded as first-round talents in BA’s rankings. Left-hander Anthony Solometo, outfielder Lonnie White Jr. and right-hander/shortstop Bubba Chandler all ranked within BA’s top 32 players. Not every outlet was quite as bullish on that trio, but all were considered Top 75 talents; Chandler, in particular, was highly regarded. Specific rankings aside, it’s an impressive crop of talent to carry away from a single draft.

The Bucs will need to sign all four, of course, in order for that impressive group to pay dividends, but it appears they have a decent chance at doing so. Chandler, who was Clemson recruit as a quarterback, already told ESPN’s Tom VanHaaren this week that he intends to sign with the Pirates (Twitter link). Pittsburgh likely also saved some money with their picks in the fifth, sixth and ninth rounds by drafting college seniors, who frequently sign well below slot.

The selection of Davis immediately adds one of the game’s most highly regarded catching prospects to a Pirates system that second-year GM Ben Cherington and his front office are rapidly working to rebuild. Davis is lauded for his blend of hit tool, excellent power and plus or plus-plus arm strength. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen calls him a “rare offensive talent for a backstop.” Both Longenhagen and The Athletic’s Keith Law acknowledge some elements of his defensive game that need polish, but Law opines Davis will “outwork everyone to become an above-average defender.” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel calls him the draft’s “best college hitter by a good margin,” and virtually every report on Davis notes that he has more than enough bat to make it work at another position even if he doesn’t stick behind the dish.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was first to report the sides had reached an agreement.

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2021 Amateur Draft 2021 Amateur Draft Signings Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Bubba Chandler Henry Davis

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Pirates Select Henry Davis With First Overall Pick Of 2021 Draft

By Mark Polishuk | July 11, 2021 at 11:05pm CDT

The Pirates have taken Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft.  The 21-year-old Davis joins Jeff King (1986), Kris Benson (1996), Bryan Bullington (2002) and Gerrit Cole (2011) as players drafted by the Pirates with the first overall selection, and Davis is the first Louisville player to be taken 1-1.

The pick ends weeks of speculation about Pittsburgh’s intentions with the top pick, and Davis’ selection counts as a bit of a surprise considering that high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer was seen as the favorite.  However, Davis was also mentioned as a candidate on the Bucs’ radar, and in recent days, there seemed to be an increasing possibility that the Pirates might opt for Davis or one of two other well-regarded high school shortstops in Jordan Lawlar and Kahlil Watson.  This is Pittsburgh’s second draft under general manager Ben Cherington, and the team also went with a college player early last year, taking New Mexico State shortstop Nick Gonzales with the seventh overall pick.

Henry DavisConsidering Davis’ pedigree, the Pirates aren’t exactly reaching by taking the backstop with the 1-1 selection.  However, since multiple reports have indicated the Pirates plan to spread out their bonus pool money, it’s fair to assume their choice of Davis may be tied to a willingness on his part to agree to a bonus south of the $8,415,300 assigned slot value for the first overall pick.  Any money saved in signing Davis will allow Pittsburgh to allocate more of its $14,394,000 draft bonus pool to its other picks within the first 10 rounds, theoretically allowing the Pirates to select and then sign any blue chip talents that may have fallen down the draft board due to signability concerns.

Fangraphs and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked Davis as the second-best overall prospect of this year’s draft class, behind Mayer.  Baseball America and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel each had Davis fourth in their rankings, while MLB Pipeline ranked him fifth.  Whether Davis will stick as a catcher is a matter of some debate, as his blocking and receiving still needs some polish, but both McDaniel and Fangraphs note that Davis’ issues with framing won’t be an issue if and when Major League Baseball implements a robotic strike zone.  Additionally, Davis has a very powerful throwing arm, with BA and Pipeline each giving him a 70-grade arm on the 20-80 scouting scale.  (McDaniel even goes so far as to call it a “70-or-80-grade arm.”)

It’s possible Davis will eventually have to move to a corner infield or corner outfield slot.  No matter his position, however, Davis’ bat will seem to play anywhere — Fangraphs even called him “arguably the safest prospect in the draft because he plays a premium position, has impact raw power, and has no contact red flags.”  Perhaps the most highly-regarded college bat of the draft class, Davis has something of an unusual swing, but also (as per Baseball America) “standout zone recognition, pure bat-to-ball skills and plus power to his pull side to make everything work.”

MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis was the first to report that the Pirates were drafting Davis.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Henry Davis

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2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

By Mark Polishuk | July 11, 2021 at 7:52pm CDT

The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
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2021 Amateur Draft Newsstand Andrew Painter Benny Montgomery Brady House Carson Williams Chase Petty Colson Montgomery Colton Cowser Cooper Kinney Frank Mozzicato Gavin Williams Gunnar Hoglund Harry Ford Henry Davis Jack Leiter Jackson Jobe Jackson Merrill Jay Allen Joe Mack Jordan Lawlar Jordan Wicks Kahlil Watson Kumar Rocker Maddux Bruns Marcelo Mayer Matheu Nelson Matt McLain Max Muncy (2002) Michael McGreevy Noah Miller Ryan Cusick Sal Frelick Sam Bachman Trey Sweeney Ty Madden Tyler Black Will Bednar

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