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Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,886 people entered the contest.  Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.  (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year?  Click here).

1.  Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)

2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)

3.  Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)

4.  Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)

5.  Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)

6.  Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)

7.  Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)

8.  Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)

9.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)

10.  Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Twins To Issue Qualifying Offer To Jake Odorizzi

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The Twins will issue a qualifying offer to righty Jake Odorizzi, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM reports (Twitter link). This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM.

While not unexpected, this move sets the stage for an interesting decision for Odorizzi. He’ll have ten days to weigh his options, during which time he can negotiate with the Twins. Odorizzi and his reps at Excel can also chat with other organizations that have interest, helping them to gauge the marketplace, though any deal with another organization would need to await final resolution of the QO.

The Minnesota organization would obviously be glad to see Odorizzi return for a one-year commitment, even at that hefty price point. After all, they could lose not only Odorizzi but also Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez to free agency, leaving them with a huge offseason undertaking on the starting staff. If he hits the open market instead of accepting, the Twins will stand to recoup draft compensation if Odorizzi signs elsewhere. They’d receive a choice after the second round — unless Odorizzi secures more than $50MM in guaranteed money, in which case it’d be after the first round. Meanwhile, signing teams will modify their offers (or withhold them altogether) to account for the loss of their own draft capital.

Odorizzi, who’ll turn 30 next March, quietly built himself a strong case as a qualifying offer recipient. The right-hander has long been a durable and generally useful rotation cog, but some mechanical adjustments led to increased velocity in 2019, and his focus on working at the top of the zone helped to up his strikeout levels. When all was said and done, Odorizzi had compiled 159 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with an even better 3.36 FIP. The righty averaged a career-best 10.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9, and his 0.9 HR/9 mark was particularly impressive for a fly-ball pitcher, considering the 2019 juiced ball.

The top of this year’s pitching market features bona fide aces Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, while Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner are both in the next tier of arms. There’s an argument for Odorizzi to at least approach that second tier, but at the very least, he’s among the more appealing arms in the market’s third tier.

Jake Odorizzi On Twins Tenure

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Right-hander Jake Odorizzi may have made the final start of his Twins tenure on Monday. Odorizzi turned in a solid performance against the high-powered Yankees, allowing two runs on five hits (with five strikeouts and no walks) in five innings, but that wasn’t enough to stave off elimination for the Twins. Minnesota fell 5-1 to finish off a three-game ALDS sweep for the Yankees, bringing an early end to an impressive bounce-back season for the Twins.

Now that Minnesota’s offseason has begun, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine must decide whether to aggressively pursue a new deal for Odorizzi. The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s on the brink of free agency, where he’ll be among the top non-Gerrit Cole starters available, though he does seem open to re-signing with the Twins.

Speaking in regards to his time with the Twins and his future Wednesday, Odorizzi told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and other reporters: “That’s out of my hands. I really enjoyed my two years here. If I’m back, great. I’ve really taken a liking to here. But if not, I wish nothing but the best. This is a great group of people from top to bottom. It’s tough to end the year, but at least I got to go out with great fans and a great atmosphere.”

Odorizzi, whom the Twins acquired from the Rays entering the 2018 season, is coming off a career year at an opportune moment. The first-time All-Star pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP with 10.08 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 159 innings, averaging a personal-best 92.9 mph on his fastball along the way.

Thanks to his strong production this season, Odorizzi will go into free agency as a qualifying offer candidate. Receiving a QO wouldn’t do Odorizzi any favors as he prepares to go to the market, as it would require a team to cough up a draft pick(s) while likely giving him a substantial payday over a couple years. However, it’s possible the Twins will simply let Odorizzi walk instead of risking having to pay an $18MM-plus salary for 2019 should he accept a QO. That said, waving goodbye to Odorizzi would be a tough development for the Twins, who are also at risk of seeing Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda bolt via free agency. Additionally, they’ll have a decision to make on Martin Perez, who has a $7.5MM club option or a $500K buyout for next year.

Along with No. 1 starter Jose Berrios, each of Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda and Martin were key components of a Minnesota rotation that saw all of them amass at least 26 starts during a 101-victory, AL Central-winning 2019. The lone member of the quintet who rivaled Berrios in effectiveness was Odorizzi, who may be in another uniform the next time he takes the ball.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins QO Jake Odorizzi?

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Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Twins tomorrow evening at Target Field. With Minnesota facing elimination, it could be the impending free agent’s final start in their uniform. Odorizzi has started 62 games for the Twins since coming over from the Rays via trade prior to the 2018 season. Have those performances been enough to warrant a qualifying offer?

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined the qualifying offer market for pitchers (and position players, for that matter), noting that Odorizzi presented a borderline case. On the surface, his 2019 numbers would seem to make a QO a no-brainer. This season, Odorizzi worked to 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP, each of which ranked in the top 25 among pitchers with 150+ innings. Under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson, Odorizzi’s stuff ticked up, as his 93 MPH average four-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball, was a career-high. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he shattered his previous career-best strikeout rate (27.1%, up nearly five points from last season). Further, Odorizzi was essentially immune to the leaguewide home run spike this season, coughing up a career-low 0.91 HR/9. Put it together, and Odorizzi was worth around 4 wins above replacement, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, easily worth the approximately $18MM he would lock in if he were to accept a qualifying offer.

Of course, though, teams look beyond a player’s previous-year stats in projecting future performance. Odorizzi doesn’t turn 30 until March and has started at least 28 games in each of his six full MLB seasons, so durability and age are on his side. Yet entering this season, his track record was more that of a back-end innings eater than the #2 starter he seemed to be in 2019. From 2016-2018, Odorizzi worked to a 4.09 ERA with a 4.60 FIP, with one of the league’s lowest ground ball rates causing home run problems. Even in 2019, Odorizzi remained a fly ball pitcher, part of the reason the Twins chose to hold him for Monday in Minnesota rather than having him work in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s difficult to imagine him maintaining an 8.8% HR/FB rate moving forward, and his pre-2019 strikeout and walk numbers were hardly eye-catching. If a few more of Odorizzi’s fly balls begin clearing fences and/or his strikeouts regress to their previous levels, his elite run prevention numbers could bounce back up in a hurry.

It’s also notable that Odorizzi’s pure stuff, even with the aforementioned velocity uptick, isn’t world-beating. Per Statcast, Odorizzi has below-average fastball velocity (23rd percentile), fastball spin (40th percentile) and curveball spin (17th percentile). That’s sure to catch the attention of front offices, who increasingly have turned back to valuing raw stuff on the free agent market. Odorizzi can’t rival someone like Zack Wheeler when it comes to GIF-worthy pitching overlays, and just last offseason we saw Dallas Keuchel, whose multi-year track record dwarfed Odorizzi’s, languish on the free agent market after being tagged with a QO.

There’s also the Twins’ situation to consider. Minnesota only has $19.88MM committed to 2020 salaries, per Baseball Reference. They’re sure to exercise Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option and have a hefty slate of arbitration-eligible players, but they’ll nevertheless enter the offseason with ample financial flexibility. They’ll also have plenty of opportunity in the starting rotation. With Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson slated to hit free agency and Martín Pérez looking increasingly likely to be bought out, there’s almost nothing in the way of certainty behind José Berríos. Of course, merely having vacancies in the rotation shouldn’t mean the Twins feel compelled to QO Odorizzi if they feel that’d be a questionable investment.

So we’ll turn it over to you, MLBTR readers. How would you advise baseball ops heads Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to handle Odorizzi’s situation this winter?

(poll link for app users)

Twins Designate Adalberto Mejia For Assignment

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The Twins have designated lefty Adalberto Mejia for assignment, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Mejia, 26, was once a borderline top-100 prospect in the Giants farm before being shipped for INF Eduardo Nunez in a 2016 deadline deal. The Twin Cities haven’t been kind to the big lefty – he was shelled in his initial 2017 taste, and then mostly stashed at Triple-A Rochester over the next two seasons. Mejia moved to the Twin bullpen this season, where he was hit hard (6.13 FIP, 7.04 BB/9) in 13 appearances the club before hitting the IL in mid-May.

Mejia has flashed back-of-the-rotation promise as recently as last season and is a good bet to latch on elsewhere in the coming days. Each of Minnesota’s rotation and pen were too deep for him this season, and the club has a host of capable hurlers in the minor-league wings. Righty Jake Odorizzi, back after a brief blister bout, will re-gain his seat in a rotation that’s posted the AL’s second-highest fWAR total in 2019; nearly each of the club’s five fulcrums are on pace for a career-best season.

Twins To Place Jake Odorizzi On Injured List

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Twins All-Star right-hander Jake Odorizzi is headed to the injured list with a blister, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The issue should only shelve Odorizzi for one start, however. They’ll recall righty Zack Littell from Triple-A Rochester to take Odorizzi’s 25-man roster spot.

Odorizzi’s blister helped force him out of the Twins’ loss to the Athletics on Tuesday after he threw just three innings. He yielded six runs (five earned) on three hits, including two home runs, with three walks against two strikeouts. Odorizzi has now gone four outings in a row without posting a quality start, thereby raising his ERA from a near-spotless 1.92 on June 9 to 3.15 in less than a month.

Recent problems notwithstanding, this has been an impressive contract year for Odorizzi, who has helped pitch the Twins to a 53-31 record and a seven-game lead in the AL Central. The 29-year-old has capitalized on an increase in velocity to log a career-high 9.74 K/9 (against 3.05 BB/9) and a personal-best 3.59 FIP in 88 2/3 innings. While Odorizzi continues showing an aversion to grounders, he has largely avoided HRs. That hasn’t been the case during his recent slide, though, and now he’ll take a short breather.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jake Odorizzi

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The Twins have enjoyed quite a few nice surprises in the course of their strong start to the year. The output of righty Jake Odorizzi is certainly among them. Don’t look now, but he’s actually now topping the ERA leaderboard among qualified starters. So … is Odorizzi headed for a free agent bonanza after the season?

There’s little doubt that Odorizzi is delivering great value on the $9.5MM he’s earning in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Through 70 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.92 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Odorizzi is tied for the league lead with nine wins, for those that value that statistic. That’s a hefty tally for a pitcher in this day and age, but it doesn’t mean he’s working deep into games. Odorizzi has gone past six innings just twice; on the positive side, he has only failed to last at least five frames on two occasions.

This continues a low-inning trend for Odorizzi. He took sixty starts in the 2017-18 seasons, but threw only 307 2/3 innings. That recent history is notable in other ways as well. Odorizzi compiled useful but unspectacular numbers in his most recent seasons, working to a 4.33 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.

The 2017-18 version of Odorizzi coughed up 1.5 homers per nine. He was and is a heavy flyball pitcher. Opposing hitters currently carry a 28.2% groundball rate and 20.2 degree launch angle, much as they did last year. While they’re putting the ball in the air, though, they haven’t found their home run stroke this year. Odorizzi has permitted just 0.51 HR/9 on a meager 4.9% HR/FB.

What to make of the changes? You certainly have to question the sustainability. Statcast says that Odorizzi has allowed a meager .234 wOBA, but calculates a .284 xwOBA — still good, but hardly as dominating as the results. We might expect a lower BABIP given his batted-ball profile, but .251 still seems light. If and when the home run suppression dissipates, Odorizzi could be left looking like much the same pitcher he has always been. Both xFIP (4.20) and SIERA (3.92) see him that way already.

That said, there does appear to be something more here than a nice, fortune-laden run of results. Odorizzi has bumped his swinging-strike rate to 12.8% by riding a rather notable velocity boost — all the way over 93 mph on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs after sitting under 92 in the prior two seasons. He’s currently at personal-high levels with both heaters, which at a bare minimum suggests he’s in a good place physically and mechanically.

There’s nothing here to suggest that Odorizzi is suddenly a front-line starter. It’s quite likely he’ll come back to earth over the next several months. But there’s also some evidence that he’s in his best form since he established himself as a quality starter (and underappreciated part of a notable trade) with the Rays.

Odorizzi will turn 30 right at the start of the 2020 campaign. With a run of extensions gutting the 2019-20 free agent market, he’ll have a chance to position himself as one of the better available starters. When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes last ranked the upcoming free agents nearly six weeks ago, he listed Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler in the top five and noted a group of other useful but clearly non-elite starters in the honorable mention category: Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Cole Hamels. Odorizzi has outperformed them all since. We’ll see how it all looks when the season is over, but he’s an increasingly notable member of the upcoming class of free agents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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