Twins Sign Jeff Hoffman To Minor League Deal
Right-hander Jeff Hoffman has signed a minor league contract containing multiple opt-outs with the Minnesota Twins, reports Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. Per FanSided’s Robert Murray, the opt-outs are for March 28, May 15, and June 15. The deal pays Hoffman $1.3MM when in the majors, and includes $50K incentives for pitching appearances in each of 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 games, meaning the deal’s potential value maxes out at $1.6MM total.
Hoffman, 30, was the 9th overall pick in the 2014 draft, selected by the Blue Jays. Following a swap to Colorado as part of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, Hoffman came up as a member of the Rockies in 2016, and spent parts of five seasons in a swing role for the club. Despite racking up 230 2/3 innings for the club across those five years, Hoffman never found his footing in Colorado, pitching to a 6.40 ERA (79 ERA+) with a 5.58 FIP.
Even in spite of those struggles, Hoffman’s top prospect pedigree, impressive stuff, and ability to start all intrigued the Reds enough to swap reliever Robert Stephenson for him ahead of the 2021 campaign. Out of Coors Field for the first time in his big league career, Hoffman posted back to back seasons with an above average ERA+ in 2021 and 2022, combining for a 4.28 ERA (108 ERA+) and 4.86 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work. The 2022 season in particular was a strong one for Hoffman, who pitched largely out of the bullpen en route to a 3.83 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.30 FIP in 44 2/3 innings.
That encouraging uptick in performance wasn’t enough for Hoffman to avoid getting non-tendered in November, however, and it’s easy to see why the Reds may have had concerns: Hoffman struggled with his control during his time in Cincinnati, walking a 12.8% of batters faced over the last two seasons, and his success last year may have been predicated, at least in part, on an unsustainable 7.5% of his fly balls leaving the yard despite an 8.7% barrel rate.
Now, Hoffman is set to compete for a role on Minnesota’s pitching staff. Such a role seems likely to come in the bullpen, given the club’s deep group of rotation options. Hoffman seems particularly likely to compete for a spot in the Twins bullpen with fellow new arrival Dennis Santana, who was claimed off waivers from the Braves earlier today. Both right-handers have big stuff and have to this point in their careers struggled with control, but has shown himself to be an interesting long-relief or swing option in the big leagues, as well.
In this hypothetical camp battle, Hoffman has prospect pedigree on his side, but Santana has the advantage of youth in addition to even more impressive stuff: his fastball ranked in the 91st percentile in 2022, per Statcast, while Hoffman’s ranked in just the 61st percentile (albeit with a more impressive 93rd percentile spin rate). Should Hoffman not make the Opening Day roster in Minnesota, the three opt-outs in his deal will provide him with ample opportunities to test the open market again, should he so choose.
National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.
Later Updates
- The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).
Earlier Moves
- The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
- The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
- The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
- The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
- The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
- The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
- The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
- The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
- The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
- The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
- The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.
Reds Select Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte And Four Others, DFA Six Players
The Reds have selected the contracts of top prospects Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, as well as Brandon Williamson, Levi Stoudt, Lyon Richardson and Ricky Karcher. As a result, they’ve DFA’d Aristides Aquino, Jeff Hoffman, Art Warren, Derek Law, Jared Solomon and Kyle Dowdy.
De La Cruz and Marte are certainly the most notable of the prospects added. De La Cruz is Cincinnati’s top overall prospect, and ranked 14th overall by MLB.com. Still just 20, De La Cruz made it as high as Double-A in 2022. As he has for most of his young career, De La Cruz mashed there, hitting .305/.358/.553 with eight home runs in 47 games while mostly appearing at shortstop. The Reds have been aggressive in moving their top prospect through the minors, and if he continues to rake into Triple-A next year, it won’t be long before he’s donning a Reds uniform.
Marte, 21, came across in the Luis Castillo deadline blockbuster. He hit .293/.397/.443 with four home runs in 30 games at High-A, and would seem likely to start next year at Double-A. He played shortstop during the minor league season, but has been exclusively at third base in the Arizona Fall League. While Marte is a bit behind De La Cruz, Reds fans can certainly start to dream of the pair of them playing infield in the not-too-distant future.
Of the other prospects added, Brandon Williamson is the only top ten prospect in their system, per MLB.com. He’s a left hander who made 13 starts at Triple-A, pitching to a 4.39 ERA. There’s a good chance he features at some point in 2023 in the big leagues. Elsewhere, Stoudt and Karcher are both pitchers who featured at Triple-A in 2022, while neither had dominant results, there’s a chance both would have been called upon anyway as pitching depth. Richardson is a hard-throwing right hander who’s struggled with injuries of late, but even though he’s not pitched above High-A, the Reds clearly feel his arm has enough talent to avoid risking losing him in the draft.
Aquino is the most high profile of the players cut loose by the Reds. He hit a staggering 14 home runs during August in 2019 for a .320/.391/.767 line in that period, but hasn’t hit much since. In 2022, he posted a line of just .197/.246/.363 while striking out more than a third of his plate appearances. Hoffman pitched to a 3.83 ERA across 44 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. Both players were arbitration eligible and non-tender candidates, so it’s not surprising to see them cut loose to open up valuable 40-man spots.
Solomon, Law, Dowdy and Warren all pitched a handful of innings each out of the Reds’ bullpen, but none had much success, and all seemed like near-certain DFA candidates as the Reds look to make room for their young prospects.
Reds Select Spencer Steer, Fernando Cruz
11:15am: The Reds have formally selected the contracts of Steer and right-hander Fernando Cruz, per a team announcement. Mike Moustakas and righty Jeff Hoffman were transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open space on the 40-man roster.
Cruz, 32, reaches the big leagues in the culmination of one of the more remarkable baseball journeys in recent memory. Drafted by the Royals as an infielder back in 2007, he toiled through four minor league seasons before beginning to experiment off the mound in 2011 and giving up infield work for good by 2012. Cruz still struggled to advance through the minors, however, and after a one-year stop in the Cubs organization, was out of affiliated ball entirely by 2016.
From 2016-21, Cruz split his time between the Puerto Rican Winter League, the Mexican League (both winter and regular season) and the independent Canadian-American Association, where he worked as a starter and closer alike for the New Jersey Jackals. The Reds signed him this past winter on the heels of his latest indie ball campaign, and he’s broken out with 56 innings of 2.89 ERA ball in Triple-A, where he’s punched out 29.3% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate.
Whether Cruz is truly a long-term piece for the Reds can be debated, but it’s hard not to be happy for a 32-year-old rookie who was out of affiliated ball for six seasons. A call to the Majors must have seemed like a pipe dream not long ago for Cruz, but that MLB debut could come any day now.
8:27am: The Reds are promoting top infield prospect Spencer Steer to the Majors, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He’ll join the big league team today as part of September roster expansion and should get regular opportunities down the stretch.
Steer, 24, came to the Reds alongside left-hander Steven Hajjar and infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the deadline trade that sent right-hander Tyler Mahle to Minnesota. He recently moved into the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect rankings, checking in at No. 98 on this month’s update.
A third-round pick by Minnesota back in 2019, Steer was the headliner in that Mahle trade, due in no small part to the numbers he posted between Double-A (.307/.385/.591, 144 wRC+) and Triple-A (.242/.345/.485, 117 wRC+) during his time with the Twins. Steer has continued at a strong pace with Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, hitting at a .297/.375/.467 pace. Between the two organizations, he’s combined for 23 home runs, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and four steals (in seven tries). He’s walked at a 10.4% clip and punched out in 18.1% of his trips to the plate this season.
The Reds have played Steer at all four infield positions, plus one game in right field, but he’s spent the vast majority of his time at second base and third base — both this season and in his professional career. With 2021 National League Rookie of the Year Jonathan India entrenched at second base, Steer seems likely ticketed for the hot corner, at least in the long term. For the short term, however, the Reds could potentially continue to bounce him around the diamond while getting a look at his bat against big league pitching. With Joey Votto out for the season and Mike Moustakas back on the injured list (and clearly not factoring into the team’s long-term plans), Steer should have plenty opportunities for at-bats alongside India and shortstop Jose Barrero, giving Reds fans a potential glimpse of the future infield.
Steer displayed an ability to make consistent contact this year, has steadily improved his power output since being drafted, and is a solid defender at multiple positions. Steer sits outside the top-100 rankings at FanGraphs and MLB.com but ranks ninth and seventh in the Reds’ system on those respective rankings. Scouting reports on him generally agree that he lacks a true plus tool but also lacks any glaring flaws; his blend of defensive versatility, solid bat-to-ball skills, improved power and an at-least average arm give him the potential to be a regular in the Cincinnati infield for years to come.
Depending on how much playing time Steer receives down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll exhaust his rookie status over the next five weeks. He’d need more than 130 at-bats to do so, but regardless, he won’t receive a full year of service in 2022 and won’t put himself on a path to Super Two trajectory, based on this September promotion. If he remains rookie-eligible heading into 2023, the Reds would retain the ability to receive compensatory draft picks based on potential Rookie of the Year voting in 2023.
Reds Activate Tyler Mahle, Place Jeff Hoffman On 15-Day Injured List
The Reds have activated starter Tyler Mahle from the 15-day injured list to start today’s game. In a corresponding move, the club placed reliever Jeff Hoffman on the 15-day injured list. The Reds also activated Justin Dunn from the 60-day injured list and optioned the former Mariner to Triple-A, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twitter).
Mahle has made 17 starts on the season, posting a 4.48 ERA/3.55 FIP across 92 1/3 innings with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, and 34.5 percent groundball rate. Mahle will certainly find himself in some trade rumors over the next ten days, though the Reds do not have to move him. He has one season of arbitration remaining.
Hoffman’s injury does not appear to be serious, but they’ll give him a couple of weeks to make sure it doesn’t turn into something more involved. The 29-year-old has provided solid short-to-long-stint relief for the Reds, tossing 44 2/3 innings over 35 outings with a 3.83 ERA/4.30 FIP.
Dunn was acquired from the Mariners this past winter as part of the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal. He just completed his rehab assignment, making six starts in Triple-A and posting a 5.40 ERA over 20 innings of work. If the Reds end up moving a starter or two over the next ten days, Dunn could find himself with an opportunity back in the bigs. With the Mariners, he logged 102 2/3 innings over three years with a 3.94 ERA/5.61 FIP.
IL Notes: Rojas, Nola, Ruf, Hoffman
Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas will go on the 10-day injured list with a dislocated finger, Craig Mish of SportsGrid reports. Rojas appears as if he’ll miss more time than the 10-day minimum, though, as Mish hears the injury is “concerning.” Rojas, who suffered the injury in a loss to the division-rival Phillies on Thursday, has been quietly effective dating back to last season. After notching below-average offensive production from 2014-19, Rojas has batted .287/.369/.461 with seven home runs and nine stolen bases in 331 plate appearances over the past year-plus. The 32-year-old’s 132 wRC+ since the start of 2020 ties him with Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon and San Diego center fielder Trent Grisham.
- The Padres are placing catcher Austin Nola on the 10-day IL with a knee sprain, but they’re optimistic it isn’t a serious injury, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets. Nola started the season on the IL with a fractured left middle finger and didn’t debut until April 28. Since then, the 31-year-old has batted .217/.373/.326 with one home run in 59 plate appearances, and he has drawn more walks (eight) than strikeouts (three). Victor Caratini will continue to get work at the catcher position while Nola is out, but it’s up in the air otherwise. Luis Campusano is also on their 40-man roster, though the Padres may want him to get more action in the minors, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes.
- The Giants have placed first baseman Darin Ruf on the IL with a strained right hamstring and recalled outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr., Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to report. Ruf was supposed to serve as the Giants’ primary option at first base after they placed starter Brandon Belt on the IL on Wednesday with an oblique strain, so they’re without any kind of everyday solution now. Jason Vosler started there Thursday, but he has a mere 16 major league plate appearances to his name. Wade, who has minimal experience at the spot, as well as Wilmer Flores (soon to return from the IL) could also fill in, Slusser notes.
- Reds righty Jeff Hoffman went on the IL on Thursday with a shoulder impingement, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Reds are confident Hoffman will avoid surgery, according to Nightengale. Hoffman leads the Reds in starts (11), but with 42 1/3 frames, he has totaled fewer than four per appearance and posted a 4.89 ERA/5.71 SIERA with a 16.1 percent walk rate. The Reds will soon get back Wade Miley back from the injured list, and that will help fill Hoffman’s void. They could also give a multi-start audition to Vladimir Gutierrez until Hoffman’s ready to come back.
Reds Roster Notes: Suarez, Senzel, Rotation
After trying Eugenio Suarez at shortstop during Spring Training, the Reds seem to be moving forward with Suarez as their top choice at the position during the regular season. “It’s looking like he’s going to end up being the everyday shortstop,” Reds general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “He has played well, he has moved really well at short. He’s made all the plays in the field. He’s done everything you need him to do.”
Suarez is no stranger to the position, having played 183 games as a shortstop during his seven Major League seasons. However, only seven of those appearances have come since the start of the 2016 season, as Suarez settled in as the Reds’ everyday third baseman in large part because of his defensive struggles as a shortstop — Suarez posted a – 9.1 UZR/150 and -14 Defensive Runs Saved over 1463 2/3 innings as a shortstop in 2014-15.
Though Suarez has lost 15 pounds over the winter, it remains to be seen just how effective he’ll be with the glove at his new/old position, and it’s probably safe to assume the Reds are prepared to accept some level of defensive shortcomings in the hope of improving the infield as a whole. With Suarez at third base, Cincinnati would have deployed Mike Moustakas at second base and then one of Kyle Farmer, Kyle Holder, Max Schrock, or Mike Freeman as shortstop, but the plan is now to use Moustakas at his old third base position and former fifth-overall pick Jonathan India might break into the big leagues as a second baseman.
No decisions have been formally made for the Reds prior to Opening Day, as the team is still waiting on a pair of notable health situations within its position-player mix. Joey Votto is still recovering from COVID-19 and might need an IL stint to give him more time to fully ramp up, while Nick Senzel has missed the last two Spring Training games due to a mild groin strain. Krall said Senzel is day-to-day with the injury.
The rotation has also been hit by the injury bug, as Sonny Gray and Michael Lorenzen will begin the season on the injured list. Pitching coach Derek Johnson told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters that after Opening Day starter Luis Castillo, the Reds’ rotation will feature Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Jose De Leon, and Jeff Hoffman in a to-be-determined order (though Mahle will likely be the No. 2 starter). The Reds are optimistic that neither Gray or Lorenzen will miss much time, and despite the presence of De Leon and Hoffman as extra starters, Johnson said the club isn’t planning to eventually adopt a six-man rotation.
Central Notes: Bryant, Odorizzi, Reds, Gose
Kris Bryant has continued to express openness to a contract extension with the Cubs, but he reiterated today there’s not yet been any discussion between his representatives and the organization (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). The 29-year-old isn’t ruling out the possibility of a long-term deal coming together eventually, even though he’s currently on track to reach free agency after the season. “I’m not looking at it as my last year (as a Cub),” Bryant said (via Mooney). “Who knows what year it could be? I could have 10 more years here. Who knows? I could come back as a coach. I could live in Chicago. I don’t know.” Regardless of what happens after 2021, it’s clear Bryant will open the season with the Cubs after an offseason of trade rumors didn’t result in a deal.
Elsewhere in the game’s central divisions:
- Jake Odorizzi is moving on from the Twins after a three-year run in Minnesota, but the right-hander said during yesterday’s Astros introduction that the Twin Cities “hold a special place” in his heart and left the door open for a return down the road (link via the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Phil Miller). “I loved my time in Minnesota,” said Odorizzi, whose two-year deal with the Astros became official this week. “Maybe there’s a time to circle back after this stint [in Houston] is done.” Odorizzi noted that he originally hoped a new deal would come together, but he saw the writing on the wall when the Twins inked fellow free agent J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier in the winter.
- A few teams have announced their intention to start out with a six-man rotation. That doesn’t seem to be on the table for the Reds, who are going to open the season with a five-man starting staff, manager David Bell said (via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle are obvious locks, while Bell suggested Wade Miley is likely to get a shot at a rebound season as a starter. That leaves Michael Lorenzen, Tejay Antone, Jeff Hoffman and José De León in a battle for the final job. The pitchers who don’t earn the season-opening rotation spot figure to start off as multi-inning relief options.
- Reliever Anthony Gose is impressing the Indians as a non-roster invitee, writes Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Continuing to throw in the upper-90’s and now incorporating a slider, Gose has struck out four without issuing a walk through his first three Cactus League innings. The former outfielder has attracted the attention of a few teams since moving to the mound in 2017 but has yet to get back to the big leagues as a pitcher. Continued strike-throwing is the key for Gose, who walked an untenable 21.5% of opposing hitters during his most recent minor league action in 2019.
Rockies, Reds Swap Jeff Hoffman For Robert Stephenson
In a challenge trade of sorts, the Rockies and Reds have agreed to swap a pair of former top pitching prospects. The two clubs agreed to a trade Wednesday sending right-hander Jeff Hoffman and minor league righty Case Williams from Colorado to Cincinnati in exchange for right-hander Robert Stephenson and minor league outfielder Jameson Hannah. The Reds have formally announced the swap.
Hoffman, 28 in January, was the ninth overall pick by the Blue Jays in the 2014 draft and went to the Rockies as the centerpiece of the blockbuster deadline swap that shipped Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto. The hope at the time of the deal was that the former East Carolina University ace could develop into a key front-of-the-rotation piece at the ever-challenging Coors Field, but that simply hasn’t panned out.
Hoffman has logged Major League innings in each of the past five seasons but never performed up to those lofty prospect expectations. In a total of 230 2/3 frames at the MLB level, he’s compiled a 6.40 ERA and a similarly discouraging 5.58 FIP. Along the way, Hoffman has averaged 7.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.79 HR/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate.
Unappealing as those baseline numbers are, however, there’s also reason to believe that Hoffman may yet have another gear into which he can tap. As noted here at MLBTR back in May, Hoffman possesses high-end velocity and spin rate on his four-seamer and above-average spin on a curveball that generally befuddled hitters in 2019. The Reds and their affinity for high-spin pitchers may have a different idea about how Hoffman can maximize what looks to at least be a viable two-pitch mix — be it concentrating his four-seamer more in the top of the zone, altering his release point or any number of other possible tweaks.
Hoffman is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to open the 2021 season on the Reds’ roster. If they’re able to successfully tap into his still-dormant potential, he’d be controllable for another four seasons.
The tale of Stephenson in Cincinnati is rather similar. He’s a hard-throwing 27-year-old who is out of minor league options and at various points ranked among the game’s elite pitching prospects but has yet to develop into a consistent producer.
Stephenson has had recent success, however, giving the Reds 64 2/3 frames of 3.76 ERA and 3.63 FIP ball with 11.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 as recently as 2019. Unfortunately for both the Reds and Stephenson, he followed that up with a ghastly 2020 effort in which he served up 11 runs in just 10 innings — thanks largely to an astonishing eight home runs allowed.
It’s worth noting that Stephenson, like Hoffman, possesses excellent velocity and spin rate on his fastball — both of which contributed to him recording an 18.7 percent swinging-strike rate across the past two seasons. Stephenson’s whiff rate, in fact, ranked among the 99th percentile of all big league relievers in 2019, so there’s plenty of reason to think that he could also emerge (or reemerge) as a viable setup piece for the Rockies. He’s controlled for three more seasons — one less year than they controlled Hoffman.
Hannah, 23, was a second-round pick by the A’s back in 2018 but was traded to the Reds in the 2019 swap that brought righty Tanner Roark to Oakland. He has just one full professional season under his belt after this year’s minor league campaign was canceled, having slashed .274/.339/.369 at Class-A Advanced in ’19. Hannah currently ranks 15th among Cincinnati farmhands at MLB.com and 23rd at FanGraphs, drawing praise for a combination of plus speed, above-average fielding and an average or better hit tool. Hannah lacks power, and scouting reports peg his arm as below average as well.
Williams was the Rockies’ fourth-round pick just this past summer. He’s yet to pitch in a pro game due to the cancellation of the 2020 minor league system and was at least somewhat of a surprise pick, as he didn’t rank in the draft’s top 200 prospects at MLB.com or the top 500 at Baseball America.
However, as GM Jeff Bridich explained to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding at the time, Williams was a local product whom the club had scouted extensively. It’s possible that with a full high school season, of course, Williams would’ve been vaulted onto those pre-draft rankings. And it’s clear that the Rox aren’t the only club intrigued by Williams and his 96 mph heater, as evidenced by the very fact that the Reds have had him included in today’s swap. Indeed, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Cincinnati GM Nick Krall now says his team planned to draft Williams before the Rockies snagged him in the fourth round.
Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that a trade was in place and that Hannah was in the deal. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added details on the framework (Twitter links) before Murray reported all of the names involved.
Hoffman’s Last Stand
When the Rockies acquired Jeff Hoffman from the Blue Jays in the 2015 Jose Reyes/Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster, the hope was that Hoffman would burgeon into a high-profile starter to pair with fellow prospect Jon Gray atop the rotation. Hoffman, after all, was the No. 9 pick in the 2014 draft and was in the mix for the top overall selection as a junior at East Carolina University until he tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. He was a volatile pick for the Jays, but the industry believed in him; he landed on the top 100 prospects of Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and ESPN between 2015-17.
Hoffman ripped through Class-A Advanced and Double-A in his first full pro season — the same season that saw him shipped from the Jays to the Rox. While the 4.02 ERA he logged in Triple-A in 2016 wasn’t eye-catching, posting that number in the Pacific Coast League while managing better than a strikeout per inning was encouraging. Hoffman looked plenty promising, even if his 2016 MLB debut resulted in a pedestrian 4.88 ERA with a 22-to-17 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 frames.
Since that time, though, he’s seen his velocity drop and his results take a nosedive. Hoffman has compiled 178 innings in the Majors over the past three seasons, but he’s been shelled for a 6.32 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.82 HR/9 and a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate that’s a far cry from the 50 percent mark he displayed as a rookie. He dealt with a brief shoulder issue in 2018 but has otherwise been mostly healthy — but he still logged just 8 2/3 frames in the Majors that year while scuffling in Triple-A. Hoffman worked with Driveline Baseball in the 2018-19 offseason in hopes of regaining his velocity and improving his mechanics. Hoffman did average 93.7 mph on his four-seamer in 2019 — up from 92.8 mph in a tiny 2018 sample — but it wasn’t the 99 mph he was pumping in offseason sessions at Driveline, either.
Hoffman made some other changes as well, completely scrapping his slider in favor of more curveballs — a pitch that was regarded as his best offering during his prospect days. He’s tinkered with his release points on all of his pitches over the course of his career and made a particularly notable adjustment to the release point on his heater in 2019. Manager Bud Black discussed that change with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post earlier this spring, noting that the goal was to shorten Hoffman’s delivery in hopes of more consistency. The change was apparent early in the year, but whether by design or otherwise, Hoffman’s vertical release point in September looked much closer to his release point from 2016-18.
Now out of minor league options, Hoffman is in a precarious position. He’s fortunate that the Rockies’ rotation is wide open behind the aforementioned Gray, German Marquez and rebound candidate Kyle Freeland. But this will be his last chance to either establish himself as a contributor with the Rockies or be placed on waivers and see his fate left up to the DFA gods. Then again, perhaps a change of scenery would ultimately be best for Hoffman.
Like many pitchers before him, Hoffman has been hammered at Coors Field, where his career 7.03 ERA is more than two runs higher than his 4.88 away mark. That road ERA is hardly an encouraging number — particularly with FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks north of 5.00 — but it does illustrate that his home surroundings haven’t done him any favors.
Beyond those rudimentary home/road splits, another club might try a different approach with Hoffman. As is the case with Carson Fulmer, who finds himself in a similar position, Hoffman has a high-spin four-seamer (88th percentile) — but he works primarily at the bottom of the zone with the pitch year after year (2016, 2017, 2019). The resulting 7.2 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t much to look at, nor is the .323/.428/.741 slash opponents posted against the pitch. The pitiful .151/.204/.267 line opponents posted against his hook, which also has above-average spin, is much more appealing though.
Even without the upper-90s heat he’s had at times in the past, Hoffman would likely miss more bats working near the top end of the zone. It’s not a novel concept — pitchers throughout the league have increasingly gravitated toward that approach — but 18 of the 21 homers Hoffman surrendered in 2019 came on that four-seamer. Clearly, pitching down in the zone isn’t getting the job done, so a change of approach can’t hurt at this point. And if the Rockies haven’t pushed him toward that approach, perhaps another club would be willing to do so.
At this point, Hoffman enters a make-or-break year where he’ll have to either lock down a spot on the pitching staff or likely be made available to other clubs. Expanded rosters may lengthen the leash that he’s given, but Hoffman is surely on thin ice at this point. If he fades from the picture, the Rockies will have just one player left — right-hander Jesus Tinoco — remaining from the trade of one of the franchise’s most iconic players.