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AL Notes: Rays, Tigers, Angels, Mariners

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The Tampa Bay Rays have money to spend and an uncharacteristic willingness to entertain higher profile free agents like designated hitter Nelson Cruz this offseason. The front office, however, does not feel any particular urgency to spend that nest egg. Working on a rolling five-year budget, the Rays won’t be shy about pushing this payroll space over to next season or later if they can’t get the players they want at a reasonable price, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Topkin pegs their current payroll at a meager $32MM (roster resource estimates closer to $37MM), more than enough space for additions even before reaching last season’s payroll number of $76MM. Still, their 90-win 2018 was an incredible achievement in part because of the large number of pre-arbitration players on the roster, but those same players won’t be inexpensive forever. Hence the willingness of the Rays front office to bank any remaining funds for future seasons if they don’t like the prices in free agency.

Speculatively speaking, that could point to contract extensions for pre-arb players like those they signed with Evan Longoria and Matt Moore in the past, or it could simply be language intended to prime their expectant fanbase for the eventuality of a disappointing winter. With the possibility of a splashy free agent signing on the table for the first time in a long time, the Rays are surely aware of the excitement forming around this offseason.

Some more notes from around the American League as teams prepare for tomorrow’s winter meetings…

  • Speaking of Matt Moore, he and the Tigers found something in common: they both viewed Moore as a starting pitcher. He came out of the bullpen for much of last season, working to a 6.79 ERA over 102 innings (12 starts) for the Rangers, Moore’s primary motivation in choosing a new home in free agency was finding an opportunity to get back into a starting rotation, where he is most comfortable, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The Tigers signed Moore to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with incentives up to $1MM more based on the number of starts he makes. Both sides are incentivized to turn Moore back into a serviceable rotation arm, Moore for his own sake, and the Tigers because he’ll be a more attractive trade chip as a starter.
  • The Angels have mostly tinkered around the edges of their major league roster thus far this offseason in acquiring Tommy La Stella, Dillon Peters and Peter Bourjos, among others, but pitching remains their biggest area of need as GM Billy Eppler heads to Las Vegas for the winter meetings, per MLB.com’s Maria Guardado. It’s been addition by subtraction with the non-tenders of Matt Shoemaker and Blake Parker, freeing up additional funds in an effort to add durable arms to their pitching staff. With an Opening Day payroll that usually comes in at around $165MM, the Angels have at least $20MM and maybe as much as $30MM to build a winner around Mike Trout this winter. Fancred’s Jon Heyman names Marwin Gonzalez and Joakim Soria as two potential targets, though both players are sure to have their share of bidders.
  • The Mariners may not be done shedding veteran contracts, per TJ Cotterill of the News Tribune. Nobody expects GM Jerry Dipoto to stop dealing, of course, as baseball’s most active GM has already made six trades this offseason. With the return in these deals leaning towards youth, Dipoto suggests the prospects imported this winter has transformed the Mariners’ farm into a top-10 system, but not everyone is equally optimistic, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, who takes a look at the new Seattle youngsters. Heyman suggests they’ll be in on Japanese free agent Yusei Kikuchi, but the bullpen is the larger area of need, as tumbleweeds now populate a pen that has recently expelled Edwin Diaz, James Pazos, Alex Colome and Juan Nicasio.

Pitching Notes: Eovaldi, Corbin, Kluber/Bauer, Soria, Holland

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If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox’ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.

  • The Padres also have interest in Eovaldi, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has long been rumored that the San Diego club would hunt for starting pitching this winter, but the injury-prone, high-octane 28-year-old would make for a particularly interesting target. After all, numerous big spenders (see above) are in the fray. For the budget-conscious Friars, beating the market for Eovaldi would surely mean taking on a rather significant risk. Perhaps that’s part of a more general strategy for a team that has plenty of interesting arms filtering through the system and is looking to move toward contention now while adding players who’ll contribute for some time to come. The San Diego franchise has also kicked around trade concepts with the Mets on Noah Syndergaard and, as Lin notes, already agreed to a hefty two-year pact with Garrett Richards in hopes he’ll recover and turn in a strong 2020 campaign.
  • Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.
  • The trade side of the starting pitching market remains somewhat more difficult to assess at this stage, but the Indians still seem to be driving the bus (at least unless and until we learn more about the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions regarding Syndergaard). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests on Twitter that the Cleveland org will likely wait until there has been some movement at the upper levels of free agency before moving Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, though it’s not entirely clear why that’d necessarily be the case. At the moment, Morosi adds in a subsequent tweet, the Braves are not actively engaged on either hurler. Of course, it’d likely be unwise to rule out the Atlanta club at this stage, given its assortment of intriguing young talent and desire to add a frontline rotation piece.
  • Veteran reliever Joakim Soria is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs at this early stage of the free agent market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The Diamondbacks, Angels, Yankees, Braves, and Reds are all involved to some extent, per the report, representing an interesting slate of organizations. While the New York and Atlanta clubs are clearly in position to add veteran talent in a bid to repeat their postseason appearances from 2018, the other teams listed by Chavez are in somewhat less-certain positions in respect to the open market. The Los Angeles and Cincinnati ballclubs are surely interested in spending to contend, but will need to choose their targets wisely. Meanwhile, Arizona is exploring sell-side deals while also trying to achieve value with new investments. That Soria appeals to all of these teams seems to suggest that the league believes the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank. And for good reason: he just wrapped up a campaign in which he spun 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, with a healthy 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a personal-best 14.4% swinging-strike rate.
  • Free agent southpaw Derek Holland is drawing multi-year interest, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’s all but impossible to gauge his true market at this stage, with some bigger dominoes still to fall, but it stands to reason that he’d make some degree of sense for a fairly broad group of clubs. At the outset of this year’s hot stove market, we guessed Holland could warrant a two-year, $15MM commitment. Though there are obvious limits to his value at 32 years of age, Holland did finally break out of a multi-year malaise with a strong 2018 campaign in which he contributed 171 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.57 ERA — his first full season of sub-4.00 ball since way back in 2013.

Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria Decline Mutual Options

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The Brewers announced Tuesday that third baseman Mike Moustakas and right-hander Joakim Soria have both declined their half of their 2019 mutual options. Moustakas’ option came with a $15MM value, while Soria’s was worth $10MM. Both players received a $1MM buyout and are now free agents.

[Related: Updated Milwaukee Brewers depth chart and payroll outlook]

Moustakas, who turned 30 last month, was traded from Kansas City to Milwaukee prior to the non-waiver trade deadline (in exchange for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez) and went on to hit .256/.326/.441 with eight homers in 218 plate appearances as Milwaukee’s primary third baseman. On the season as a whole, the longtime Royals slugger hit .251/.315/.459 with 28 long balls and 33 doubles.

It’s the second consecutive quality season at the plate for Moustakas since returning from a 2016 ACL tear, and it’s bold, to an extent, to see him turn down the guaranteed $15MM he could’ve secured (if the Brewers were similarly comfortable paying him at that rate, which isn’t a given). Moustakas and agent Scott Boras found extremely limited interest in free agency last winter on the heels of a superior offensive season to the one he just concluded.

It’s certainly possible that Moustakas turned down some multi-year offers early in free agency and was ultimately forced to settle for his eventual one-year, $6.5MM deal after those suitors pursued alternative options. But now that he’s a year older and coming off a worse season with a relatively characteristic platoon split, it’d be hard to say that Moustakas did anything to truly elevate his profile in 2018. It’s true that he can no longer be saddled with a qualifying offer, which unquestionably sapped his market last offseason, so at the very least he’ll have that burden lifted as he explores the free-agent market for a second time.

As for Soria, the final season of his three-year, $25MM pact (also signed with the Royals) was arguably the best of the three. In 60 2/3 innings, the 34-year-old pitched to a tidy 3.12 ERA while averaging 11.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.59 HR/9 with a 35.7 percent ground-ball rate. Despite the fact that he’s entering his mid-30s, Soria posted the best swinging-strike rate (14.4 percent) and opponents’ chase rate (34.1 percent) of his impressive career. With that type of swing-and-miss ability in his back pocket, he’ll likely have little trouble topping the $10MM guarantee he’d have been promised had he instead accepted the option.

Brewers Option Corey Knebel, Zach Davies

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The Brewers have optioned righties Corey Knebel and Zach Davies, per the MLB.com transactions page. (H/t MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy & Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel; Twitter links.) Davies had been on a rehab assignment following an extended absence.

This move is notable enough for what it says about two of the team’s most important pitchers heading into the season. But it’s also an intriguing development with the revocable waiver trade deadline drawing near.

[RELATED: Brewers Depth Chart]

Knebel was expected to anchor the Milwaukee pen, but carries a 5.08 ERA through 39 innings on the season. He has generated 12.7 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 along with a 50.0% groundball rate, but has also been touched for home runs on 28.0% of the flyballs put in play against him. Knebel is sitting just under 97 mph with his average fastball, but has lost some of swinging-strike gains from 2017, with his 13.9% rate falling to 11.6% this year. His struggles have deepened of late, as he has coughed up eight earned runs in his past 6 1/3 innings.

As for Davies, who turned in solid campaigns from the rotation in each of the past two years, the 2018 season has been a rough one thus far. He only managed a 5.23 ERA through eight starts before hitting the shelf with shoulder troubles. Davies has actually taken more starts in the minors this year than in the majors, owing to a halting rehab course.

While Knebel will head to Triple-A to work out the kinks, Davies was formally assigned to the organization’s nearby Class A affiliate. The reason for the latter’s placement isn’t entirely clear, but it could be that the club thinks it may need to bring him back onto the MLB roster on short notice or that he’ll be getting some added rest time without re-starting another rehab stint. Or, perhaps this is just a holding spot for the time being while the next steps are hammered out.

Both pitchers will need to remain on optional assignment for at least ten days unless an active roster spot opens due to a DL placement. It’s at least worth noting that, to this point of the season, MLB players have only accrued 147 days of service. Knebel, a Super Two this year, will cross into the 3+ service class regardless of whether he returns to the MLB roster. Davies, though, entered the campaign with 2.020 service years on his ticker and is therefore still a few days shy of reaching arbitration eligibility in the coming offseason. He would still likely qualify as a Super Two, but that’d mean pushing back his eventual free agency by one season. Whether or not that’s a factor isn’t at all clear; it certainly could be that the organization plans to bring Davies back when rosters expand, if not sooner.

For the time being, there’s no known replacement for Knebel on the active roster. Milwaukee is off today. As Rosiak notes, he could be replaced by Joakim Soria, if he’s activated from the DL tomorrow. But the open roster spot could also be filled from the outside. Several starting pitchers are rumored to be on waivers or to have cleared waivers. It’s certainly possible — but by no means certain — that the Brewers are contemplating the acquisition of an outside arm.

[RELATED: Top 20 August Trade Candidates]

Quick Hits: Soria, Renfroe, Gordon, Stanton

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Joakim Soria suffered a mild right groin strain during the Brewers’ ninth-inning meltdown against the Padres today. Soria walked off the mound with an apparent injury after allowing a go-ahead grand slam to Hunter Renfroe. According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the malady was later described as a mild right groin strain. There’s no official word on the severity of the injury yet, so it’s not known at this time whether Soria will need to miss any games. The right-hander came over from the White Sox just prior to the trade deadline in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers: left-hander Kodi Medeiros and right-hander Wilber Perez.

Here are a few other small items from around the league this evening…

  • Speaking of Renfroe, the Padres outfielder has been on a tear of late. Including tonight’s grand slam off Soria, Renfroe’s slugged four homers in his past four games. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune suggests that Renfroe’s performance could solidify an everyday spot in the lineup even after Wil Myers returns from the disabled list. That’s good news for the 26-year-old in the wake of today’s news that some of the young Padres outfielders are being intensely evaluated, but it’s also worth noting that Franmil Reyes also homered tonight; his third in his past four games. It will be interesting to see how the Padres address their corner outfield logjam this offseason, or if they choose to at all (Reyes and Renfroe both have minor league options remaining and can be stashed at Triple-A).
  • The Mariners moved Dee Gordon all the way down to ninth in the batting order in tonight’s game. That’s largely due to the speedster’s incredibly pedestrian offensive performance on the season. He’s hitting .280, but with just a .300 on-base and .343 slugging percentage. The biggest culprit to his lackluster showing is a paltry 1.5% walk rate that’s by far the lowest in the majors and approximately half the size of the next player on that list (Salvador Perez of the Royals). Though the plan right now seems to be for Robinson Cano to usurp some playing time from Ryon Healy when he returns from his suspension, it’s fair to wonder whether Gordon could rest in favor of Cano on occasion down the stretch, if he can’t figure out how to show more patience.
  • With his 121.7 MPH homer tonight off Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, Giancarlo Stanton broke a Statcast record. The Yankees’ headline offseason acquisition drilled the ball at a launch angle of 17 degrees, propelling it an estimated 449 feet. It’s officially the hardest-hit homer that Statcast has ever tracked. It’s part of a larger trend for Stanton, who has heated up after a somewhat average start to the season. The right-hander’s .308/.363/.561 batting line since the start of June is much more in line with what the Bombers had imagined when they took on the lion’s share of his contract from the Marlins this offseason.

Brewers Acquire Joakim Soria

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2:46pm: Chicago will send just over $1MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

12:23pm: The Brewers have officially agreed to a deal to acquire righty Joakim Soria from the White Sox, as first reportedy by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Former first-round pick Kodi Medeiros is one piece in the deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter link), with Feinsand tweeting that righty Wilber Perez is the other.

Per the announcement, the White Sox will pay down an unstated portion of Soria’s contract. He’s earning $9MM this year — some of it still paid for by the Dodgers, as part of the three-team deal that sent him to Chicago — with a $1MM buyout still to come on a $10MM 2019 mutual option.

While his name hasn’t been circulated much around the rumor mill, Soria ranked 12th on MLBTR’s recent list of the top 75 trade deadline candidates on the basis of his strong showing thus far. He becomes the sixth of the first 13 names on that ranking to be dealt in the past week or so.

Soria, 34, has worked as the White Sox’ closer and carries a 2.56 ERA through 38 2/3 innings on the season. He’s sporting an impressive combination of 11.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, buttressed by a career-best 14.6% swinging-strike rate.

There’s a lot to like about the way the veteran hurler is throwing right now. Soria is getting whiffs both by drawing quite a few more chases out of the zone (35.6%) than ever before and by holding opposing hitters to a 77.3% contact rate on pitches in the zone, which is also a career-best rate.

Soria carried sparkling peripherals last year, too, though he only ended the season with a 3.70 ERA, so he seems to be on something of a late-career run of excellence. The long-time late-inning hurler has tamped down on the home runs quite a bit over the past two seasons, allowing only three balls in total to leave the yard in that span.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lynn, Cobb, Cashner, Soria, Bour, Swihart

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Here are some hot stove-related items from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required and recommended)…

  • The Nationals have interest in free agent righty Lance Lynn, though a signing would further put the team over the luxury tax threshold.  Washington has been circling the starting pitching market all winter, with Jake Arrieta standing out as the top-tier name most often mentioned as a possibility due to the well-documented relationship between Nats ownership and Scott Boras (Arrieta’s agent).  Arrieta, however, would be a considerably pricier signing than Lynn, though Lynn wouldn’t be cheap himself; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projects Lynn for four years and $60MM.
  • Alex Cobb isn’t looking for a $20MM average annual value in his next contract, according to “officials on both sides of the Cubs’ negotiations with” the free agent right-hander.  Reports that this inflated asking price spurred the Cubs’ interest in Yu Darvish as an alternative to Cobb are also not accurate, as per these same officials.
  • The Orioles recently met with Andrew Cashner and his representatives.  Baltimore’s interest in Cashner dates back to at least the start of the offseason, and the O’s are still in sore need of arms to bolster their weak rotation.  There hasn’t been a ton of buzz about Cashner on the rumor mill, though he is still reportedly looking for a three-year deal and there seems to be at least some interest between Cashner and the Rangers.
  • The Athletics also had interest in Joakim Soria before the Royals dealt him to the White Sox earlier this week.  Soria would’ve given the A’s extra closing depth behind Blake Treinen, and Oakland could also have potentially looked to move Soria at the trade deadline.  The A’s have already made two notable additions (Yusmeiro Petit and Emilio Pagan) to their bullpen mix this winter, and it stands to reason that they could still be looking for more veteran relief help after missing out on Soria.
  • Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings.  Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances.  Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Sox “are not looking to move” Blake Swihart, despite trade interest from other teams.  The last two seasons were essentially a writeoff for Swihart, due to defensive issues behind the plate and ankle injuries that limited him to just 91 minor league games and 25 MLB games in 2016-17.  Still, the Sox haven’t given up on the former top prospect, with Dombrowski noting that Swihart’s positional versatility has helped add to his value for the team.  While Dombrowski noted that “you could never say you would not move him or anyone else,” Swihart is “still part of our plans….Sometimes you get stuck with players who are out of options. In this case, because of his flexibility, I think we’ve got a little better chance of getting through it.”

Dodgers Acquire Scott Alexander In 3-Team Swap With Royals, White Sox

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Three teams have announced a swap that will send lefty Scott Alexander from the Royals to the Dodgers. Infielder Jake Peter will also end up in Los Angeles, by way of the White Sox.

Meanwhile, Kansas City will pick up righty Trevor Oaks and infielder Erick Mejia in the deal. The White Sox will end up with veteran relievers Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan, the former from the Royals and the latter from the Dodgers.  Kansas City is sending $1MM to the White Sox, the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd tweets. Chicago will also receive $2MM from the Dodgers, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

For the Dodgers, the move is all about bolstering a relief unit that lost Grant Dayton to injury (and a subsequent waiver claim) and midseason acquisition Tony Watson to free agency. While Tony Cingrani remains on hand, Los Angeles was obviously interested in adding another southpaw to the pen.

[RELATED: Updated Dodgers Depth Chart]

Feb 20, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Scott Alexander (54) poses for a photo during spring training photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Alexander, 28, has accrued just over one year of MLB service, so he’s not even slated to reach arbitration eligibility until 2020. While he’s hardly a household name, he did turn in 69 innings of 2.48 ERA ball in 2017, his first full season at the game’s highest level.

While he recorded just 7.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 on the year, Alexander generated an eye-popping 73.8% groundball rate (and an above-average 12.8% swinging-strike rate, too). Despite relying almost exclusively on his power sinker — he utilized a breaking ball less than ten percent of the time — Alexander generated excellent results against hitters on both sides of the plate. In fact, he spent most of his time dominating righties, who strode to the plate against him 202 times and managed only a .240/.313/.317 batting line.

The move also delivers a young, upper-level infielder to the Dodgers system. The 25-year-old Peter split time at the two highest levels of the minors over the past two years. He thrived in particular upon earning his way back to Triple-A in 2017, slashing .292/.351/.506 over 194 plate appearances.

For the Royals, meanwhile, this is mostly about shedding salary obligations. The club will move all of Soria’s $9MM salary for 2018, while covering the $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option. While doing so will entail parting with a quality, affordable young reliever, the team will at least pick up some prospect assets as well.

[RELATED: Updated Royals Depth Chart]

Oaks is the highest-rated young asset in the deal; he could even compete for a rotation spot in camp. Last year, he worked to a 3.64 ERA in 84 Triple-A frames, carrying 7.7 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 along with a 50.8% groundball rate. (Typically, the sinkerballer has induced even more worm burners than that.) Oaks will head onto the K.C. 40-man roster; he had been added by the Dodgers in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

The switch-hitting Mejia, 23, slashed a useful .289/.357/.413 in his 403 Double-A plate appearances in 2017. He also contributed seven home runs and 25 stolen bases on the year while spending time at short, second, and third. Mejia originally signed with the Mariners organization out of his native Dominican Republic; he landed with the Dodgers by way of a 2016 trade that sent righty Joe Wieland to Seattle.

The involvement of the White Sox is geared mostly toward securing some veteran relief pieces at reasonable prices. Avilan projects to earn $2.3MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility, but most of that will be covered by the Dodgers. (Of course, that characterization depends upon perspective; L.A. essentially passed through Soria’s contract in the deal, so part of the money could be considered as allocated to his 2018 guarantee.)

[RELATED: Updated White Sox Depth Chart]

Having dealt and acquired a whole host of relievers in 2017, the White Sox will now secure two experienced hurlers to bolster an unproven unit and perhaps also provide the organization with some new trade chips. The right-handed Soria rang up 10.3 K/9 and allowed only a single home run in his 56 innings in 2017, ending the year with a 3.70 ERA. He could now be the favorite to step into the White Sox’ closer role. As for Avilan, a 28-year-old southpaw, he managed a 2.93 ERA in his 46 frames while carrying 10.2 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and a 53.8% groundball rate.

Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported (Twitter links) that Alexander was going to the Dodgers and Soria to the White Sox. Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link) and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (in a tweet) had other components of the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitching Market Chatter: Cole, Herrera, Soria, Cishek, Rondon

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With lots of information flying around the Winter Meetings, let’s check in on a few interesting notes on the pitching market:

  • The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets, but have been left to believe that Cole won’t be moved. Pittsburgh’s intentions for the winter have never really been clear, with a few notable veterans nearing free agency but a core in place that might still contend in the near term. Presumably, the Bucs are still weighing their options. If a Cole deal is considered, it’s not entirely certain whether the team would prioritize long-term prospect value or prefer instead to bring back controllable assets already playing at the MLB level. While the 27-year-old was less than dominant in 2017, he was able to top two hundred frames and averaged a typical 8.7 K/9 with 2.4 BB/9. The asking price, in other words, will likely still be lofty for a pitcher with a front-line reputation. If the Yankees are serious about pursuit, they’d surely have some interesting pieces to dangle.
  • The Royals are willing to consider trade scenarios involving closer Kelvin Herrera, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Righty Joakim Soria is also available via trade, per a report from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). That doesn’t rate as much of a surprise given the team’s relatively hefty payroll and questionable chances of contention. Indeed, recent indications are that some sort of rebuilding effort could be in the works. Herrera is coming off of a middling campaign, but also has a history of late-inning success and is projected to earn a relatively palatable $8.3MM in his final season of arb eligibility. Soria, 33, only carried a 3.70 ERA in his 56 frames in 2017, but did post a healthy 10.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. He’s slated to earn $9MM in 2018 and is also promised a $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option.
  • Despite some cautionary comments from GM Sandy Alderson yesterday, the Mets are giving indications that they will land at least one reliever over the Winter Meetings, Sherman reports on Twitter. But it’s more likely the team will secure a shorter-term asset than one of the premium setup men they’ve been connected to in the past, he adds. Righty Steve Cishek is one pitcher that has drawn New York’s attention, per Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). The veteran sidearmer finished 2017 with a strong run for the Rays, posting a 1.09 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in his final 24 2/3 innings after coming over from the Mariners over the summer.
  • As the Nationals look into possible bullpen additions, the club could consider free agent Hector Rondon, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Washington was among the teams that spoke with the Cubs about Rondon before he was non-tendered. The Nats and others obviously were not willing to risk an arbitration hearing with a player who projected at $6.2MM, but presumably there’ll be fairly wide interest at a lower price tag. Though he faded a bit in 2017, Rondon still carried 10.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 while maintaining his typically robust fastball velocity and also showing career highs in swinging-strike (11.9%) and groundball (48.3%) rates.

Royals Likely Headed For Rebuild

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After a half-decade at or near the top of the AL Central, two appearances in the World Series and one championship, the Royals now look to be going in the opposite direction. As Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all hit the free-agent market, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required/recommended) that the Royals “expect to step back for perhaps three seasons” and embark on a rebuilding effort. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star also penned an excellent column on the Royals’ trajectory over the weekend, reporting that Kansas City appears headed for a “substantial rebuild across the next two or three seasons.”

Royals GM Dayton Moore suggests to Dodd that the Royals have to at least be open-minded to virtually any trade scenario: “If somebody blows your doors off on something, you always have to look at it.” 

That, according to Rosenthal, could even include controllable pieces like Whit Merrifield, who broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash and an AL-leading 34 stolen bases last season. Rosenthal also notes that Kansas City would listen to offers on left-handed reliever Scott Alexander, who notched a 2.48 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a ridiculous 73.8 percent ground-ball rate in 69 innings last year. Both players are controlled through the 2022 season and are still two years removed from arbitration eligibility.

Beyond that pairing, the Royals have a few more obvious trade candidates. Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria are both quality right-handed relievers that are just one year from free agency, though neither is signed at a bargain rate. Herrera projects to earn $8.3MM in arbitration, while Soria is still owed $10MM through the end of his contract. Jason Hammel didn’t have a strong first season in Kansas City but ate up 180 innings with quality K/BB numbers and a 4.37 FIP. He’s still owed $11MM through 2o18. Left-hander Danny Duffy, signed for another four years and $60MM, would represent one of the top starting pitching options on the trade market if the Royals field offers on him.

[Related: Kansas City Royals Offseason Outlook]

Interestingly, both Dodd and Rosenthal report that even as the Royals embark on a rebuild, they’re still in pursuit of a long-term deal with Hosmer. Per Dodd, team officials “see rebuilding scenarios that include” Hosmer in the fold. He’s still just 28 years of age, so Hosmer could indeed still be in his prime even at the conclusion of a two- or three-year rebuilding cycle, but it nonetheless seems counter-intuitive to sign him to what would almost certainly be a franchise-record contract while also dealing away big league talent.

Furthermore, re-signing Hosmer would effectively cost the Royals a top pick, as they currently project to receive three compensatory selections after the first round of next year’s draft due to the losses of Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain (assuming each signs for at least a $50MM guarantee, which seems likely). Those picks would not only give the Royals five picks in the top 40 or so selections of the draft — Kansas City also has a pick in Competitive Balance Round A — they’d also significantly bolster the Royals’ league-allotted draft bonus pool. Each of those comp picks for the loss of Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain would add about $2MM (give or take $100K) to the Royals’ draft pool, based on last year’s slot values.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Hosmer even has interest in returning to a Royals team that could spend the first two or three years of that contract losing more than it wins. If Hosmer’s market fails to develop, it certainly stands to reason that a return to the only organization he’s ever known could be a nice safety net. But, it’ll likely be difficult to sell Hosmer on staying in Kansas City while simultaneously trading away his longtime teammates for younger, unproven commodities.

If the Royals do deal away big league talent without acquiring much in the way of reinforcements for the 2018 roster, they’ll join the White Sox and Tigers as rebuilding clubs in the same division. That would seemingly give the Indians and Twins all the more motivation to act aggressively as they seek to bolster their clubs this winter, as few teams ever have the luxury of competing in a division where three of their four primary rivals are largely punting on the season at hand.

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