Jordan Hicks

MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks

By Darragh McDonald | January 17, 2024 at 10:54am CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

The Cubs signing Shota Imanaga (1:20)
The Cubs acquiring for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte from the Dodgers (8:30)
The Yankees signing Marcus Stroman (13:20)
The Giants agreeing to sign Jordan Hicks (17:50)
The Braves extending Alex Anthopoulos (22:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Ben Cherington of the Pirates has repeatedly said that he would be active in the market for another starting pitcher and another outfielder. With Spring Training starting in about one month, has he given up on this quest? (25:35)
Why do general managers not come out and say reports are B.S.? Use the Jays as example. They are not interested in Blake Snell but their name gets thrown in for leverage. Should GMs step in and say this report is false? The endless number of sources is ridiculous and leads nowhere except larger pay days or trade hauls because of fake competition. (27:30)
I think most of the baseball world is getting really sick of the Dodgers and Yankees buying all the major names. It’s terrible for parity and makes for season after season of “wash, rinse, repeat” storylines. Is the league ever going to enact a salary cap? It’s done great things for the other three major sports leagues. What is the reason for the resistance to it? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

Teoscar Hernández Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays – listen here
Yoshi Yamamoto Fallout, the Chris Sale/Vaughn Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup – listen here
Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants Sign Jordan Hicks

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The Giants announced that they have signed a four-year, $44MM contract with free agent right-hander Jordan Hicks. The righty will get a one-time signing bonus of $2MM, a $6MM salary in 2024, followed by a $12MM salary in the three subsequent years. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the deal and added that the Giants plan to utilize Hicks as a starter rather than a reliever. Hicks, who is represented by the Ballengee Group, can also earn an additional $2MM of annual incentives based on innings pitched, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Those incentives begin kicking in at the 100-inning mark, she adds.

A move back to the rotation is surprising, but it won’t be an entirely unfamiliar role for the flamethrowing 27-year-old. Hicks worked as a starter in the minors before debuting in the Cardinals’ bullpen during the 2018 season, and St. Louis briefly experimented with a move back to the rotation early in the 2022 campaign. That didn’t pan out — he yielded 16 runs in 24 2/3 innings before moving back to a relief role — but the Giants will try their hand at maximizing Hicks’ explosive arsenal out of their own rotation. The Giants have indeed shown a knack for helping pitchers break out — Kevin Gausman chief among them — and Hicks clearly has the type of raw stuff to intrigue clubs in a larger role.

Few pitchers can rival Hicks in terms of sheer velocity. He’s averaged 100.8 mph on his four-seamer and 100.2 mph on his two-seamer to this point in his career and has topped out at borderline comical 105 mph. The former third-round pick couples that blistering velocity with a slider that sits at 86.5 mph, and he’s thrown very occasional “changeups” in the past (never higher than at a 4% clip) — sitting 91.8 mph on that pitch overall.

Given the uncommonly young age at which he reached the open market and the overpowering nature of his raw arsenal, Hicks has long felt like a pitcher who’d command substantial interest despite a more modest track record. MLBTR ranked him 21st on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year, $40MM contract from a club believing it could unlock another gear in the righty.

As one might expect for a pitcher with this type of superhuman velocity, durability has been an issue. Hicks has never pitched more than 105 innings between the big leagues and minors combined in any season of his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, had a 60-day IL stint due to inflammation in that same elbow in 2021, and missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to a flexor strain. Hicks returned from that injury in early July and was placed back on the injured list in mid-September due to arm fatigue.

Of course, when he’s healthy and at his best, Hicks can be flat-out overpowering. He sports a career 3.85 ERA, but that’s skewed by 10 ugly innings prior to his UCL tear in 2019 and by his rough work as a starter in 2022. In 2023, Hicks turned in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and a 58.3% ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, who acquired him from St. Louis at the trade deadline in exchange for minor league pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. That ground-ball rate is nothing new; Hicks boasts a sensational 60.4% grounder rate in his career. Unfortunately, last year’s command troubles aren’t new either. He’s issued a free pass to an unsightly 12.8% of his opponents in the Majors.

Given last year’s innings count — and totals of 66 1/3 and 13 frames in the two preceding seasons — it’s difficult to imagine Hicks simply stepping into a rotation and firing off 30-plus starts, even if he’s able to remain healthy. The Giants figure to place him on some kind of innings limit in 2024, whether that means capping him at five innings per start, using him to piggyback with another starter, or simply giving him some occasional spells in the bullpen to keep his arm fresh.

An ideal setting might see Hicks move to the bullpen late in the season right as recent trade acquisition Robbie Ray returns from Tommy John surgery, though a lot needs to go right before that’s a legitimate consideration. If Hicks is able to both remain healthy and pitch effectively as a starter this coming season, the team could give him a larger workload come 2025. At that point, plugging Hicks and Ray into the rotation behind ace Logan Webb could give San Francisco a formidable trio. That’s a major “if,” but the upside is intriguing.

For the time being, Hicks will add another question mark to a rotation that’s teeming with uncertainty behind Webb, a 2023 Cy Young Award finalist. Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched last year, but Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to reach even 100 innings. Manaea has since signed with the Mets in free agency, and Cobb will open the 2024 season on the injured list while he recovers from hip surgery.

Hicks joins veteran swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and young righties Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck as candidates to fill out the rotation behind Webb. Twenty-five-year-old righty Kai-Wei Teng, who walked nearly 14% of his opponents in Triple-A last year, is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is surely viewed as a potential rotation mainstay by Giants brass, but he’s pitched just 19 2/3 innings above A-ball and in all likelihood won’t be an option until the 2025 campaign.

It seems fair to envision the Giants making further additions to their rotation, given all that instability, although with both Cobb and Ray on the mend, there will be veteran reinforcements filtering in as the season wears on. Still, the Giants entered the offseason with question marks on the pitching staff and throughout the lineup, and many of those needs remain unaddressed. Adding a more established arm — be it a mid-tier arm in the Mike Clevinger/Michael Lorenzen/Hyun Jin Ryu vein or a top-tier starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — still seems both prudent and well within the Giants’ budgetary capacity.

As it stands, the Giants’ payroll currently projects to about $167MM, per Roster Resource, while their luxury-tax ledger sits nearly $30MM shy of the $237MM first-tier threshold. San Francisco opened the 2023 season with a $188MM payroll and has previously put forth a $200MM roster in the past, so there ought to be considerable room for further augmentation on the free agent and/or trade markets.

Free Agent Faceoff: Jordan Hicks/Robert Stephenson

By Anthony Franco | December 28, 2023 at 11:33am CDT

Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.

There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.

Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.

The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.

The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.

Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.

As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.

In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.

There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.

Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

By Steve Adams | December 19, 2023 at 9:53am CDT

There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

Yankees Notes: Soto, Judge, Yamamoto, Bullpen

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 11:05pm CDT

On the heels of last night’s blockbuster, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters this afternoon. He discussed a handful of topics on where the front office will proceed.

Cashman acknowledged the team has yet to have any conversations with Juan Soto’s camp regarding a long-term extension (relayed by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). The three-time All-Star is one year from free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $33MM salary. It seems all but a lock that Soto will choose to test free agency. He declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 and certainly wouldn’t sign for less than that now that he’s within a year of the open market.

The GM conceded “it’s a possible short term situation” with Soto. That didn’t deter the Yankees from making their all-in push to install him into the 2024 lineup alongside Aaron Judge. Between Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, they’ve added a trio of outfielders to better balance a lineup that struggled mightily when Judge was on the injured list. The 2022 AL MVP was out between June 4 and July 28 after injuring his right big toe in a collision with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium.

Judge played regularly from the time of his reinstatement through season’s end. While there wasn’t much doubt about his health status, Cashman confirmed today that the toe problem is fully behind him (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

The Soto return was pitching heavy. Michael King headlined a group that also included Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Double-A prospect Drew Thorpe. After parting with so much of their rotation depth to push that trade over the finish line, Cashman said the team will look to backfill on the pitching staff (passed along by The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty).

There’s no bigger pitching target than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The NPB ace is scheduled to meet with MLB teams next week. The Yankees are among a handful of teams that are serious suitors for the 25-year-old righty. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Yamamoto is the club’s priority at this point.

It seems the rotation is taking a bigger precedence than the bullpen. The Athletic reported last night that the Yankees were showing interest in free agent reliever Jordan Hicks. Feinsand downplays the club’s desire for a notable bullpen strike, however. While he confirms the Yankees like Hicks, he indicates a notable relief acquisition is more of a fallback possibility if Yamamoto signs elsewhere.

Yankees Interested In Jordan Hicks

By Steve Adams | December 7, 2023 at 9:21am CDT

The Yankees are among the mounting number of teams with interest in free-agent righty Jordan Hicks, per Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The Yanks will likely look to replenish their bullpen after trading four pitchers to the Padres in last night’s Juan Soto blockbuster. The flamethrowing Hicks is among the most sought-after relievers on the open market.

Just 27 years old, Hicks is an atypically young free agent. He’s also one of the game’s hardest throwers, with career averages of 100.8 mph, 100.2 mph and 91.6 mph on his four-seamer, sinker and splitter, respectively. That uncommon blend of age, velocity and strong recent performance appear to have positioned Hicks quite well in free agency.

Hicks split the 2023 season between the Cardinals, who drafted and developed him, and the Blue Jays, who acquired him at the trade deadline. In 65 2/3 innings, he pitched to a 3.29 ERA with a very strong 28.4% strikeout rate against an 11.2% walk rate that could stand to come down a ways but is actually lower than his career mark (12.8%). Hicks used that power sinker to pile up grounders at a robust 58.9% clip, which is roughly in line with his brilliant 60.4% career mark.

The 2023 season was one of the most successful of Hicks’ young career. He’s pitched just 243 1/3 big league innings since debuting back in 2018, thanks in large part due to injury. Hicks had Tommy John surgery in 2019, opted out of the shortened 2020 season while rehabbing from that procedure (and also due to his status as a Type 1 diabetic, making him a high-risk case during the Covid pandemic), and then battled elbow and flexor troubles in 2021-22.

Hicks has only twice topped even 40 appearances in a season — his 2018 rookie showing and this past season in 2023. Durability may not be a selling point, but his elite velocity and ground-ball rate, above-average strikeout rate and knack for inducing weak contact (career 86.7 mph average exit velocity, 31.3% hard-hit rate) all combine with his relative youth to create an air of upside. That’s perhaps reflected in the substantial number of clubs with reported interest. Hicks has been linked to the Astros, Angels, Rangers, Red Sox and Orioles this week alone. Back in October, Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that Hicks and the Cardinals nearly agreed to a three-year extension prior to his summer trade to Toronto. The Cardinals are known to be pursuing bullpen help, so logically speaking, it stands to reason that they’d be in the mix too.

The Yankees have shown a clear affinity for high-end ground-ball rates over the years, evidenced by their acquisitions of Clay Holmes, Zack Britton, Wandy Peralta and others. Hicks would be another acquisition in that vein, albeit a much higher-profile one than Holmes and Peralta (but perhaps less so than Britton). Even with the injury track record, interest in Hicks is robust enough that three-year deal seems to be the floor, with a strong possibility of him commanding an even lengthier pact than that.

Following last night’s Soto acquisition, the Yankees’ luxury-tax ledger checks in just shy of $289MM, per Roster Resource’s projections. The Yankees would be taxed at a 90% clip for any dollars up to $297MM and then a staggering 110% clip for any dollars spent thereafter. Signing Hicks at an annual value of $10MM, for instance, would cost the Yankees roughly $19.6MM for the 2024 season. The Yankees knew this would be the case when acquiring Soto and Trent Grisham from the Padres, however, and they’re still pursuing upgrades in the bullpen and in the rotation anyhow (most notably, Yoshinobu Yamamoto). It doesn’t seem like those taxes will be a substantial deterrent, but they’re nonetheless worth pointing out as the Yankees continue their efforts to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 campaign.

Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels Among Teams Interested In Jordan Hicks

By Nick Deeds | December 5, 2023 at 11:15am CDT

December 5: The Angels and Red Sox have also checked in on Hicks, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Both clubs could use some bullpen reinforcements, with Boston relievers having posted a collective 4.32 ERA in 2023 while the Angels were at 4.88.

December 4: The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles are among the teams with interest in right-hander Jordan Hicks this offseason, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Cardinals and Orioles having interest is no surprise since they had previously been linked to the 27-year-old earlier in the offseason. The connections to the Rangers and Astros, however, are new.

The Rangers make plenty of sense as a potential fit for Hicks. The reigning World Series champions got excellent results out of their offense and starting pitching in 2023, but faced significant struggles in the bullpen. The club’s relief corps combined for a 4.77 ERA that was bottom-seven in the majors, while the group’s 4.45 FIP and 2.6 fWAR were also bottom-ten figures. The Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were the only other playoff teams to feature a bottom-ten bullpen in even one of those three categories, and no club besides the Rangers appeared in the bottom of those leaderboards more than once.

That acute need for bullpen additions has led the Rangers to be frequently connected to top-of-the-market closer Josh Hader, who posted a sensational season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate while picking up 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings of work with the Padres. That being said, Hader has a chance to land a record-breaking contract in free agency this offseason, with MLBTR projecting the lefty for a six-year, $110MM contract on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, on which he ranks eighth overall. Coming off a World Series championship in 2023 and a pair of offseasons where they were among the league’s biggest spenders, it’s possible that sort of contract won’t be a problem for Texas.

That being said, GM Chris Young recently cautioned that the club doesn’t expect to spend quite as lavishly this offseason as they have the past two winters. If the Rangers do find that Hader is out of their price range, Hicks could represent a more affordable alternative who has still flashed elite upside as a late-inning arm. Hicks, who was the second-highest rated reliever (#21 overall) on MLBTR’s list with a projected price tag of four years and $40MM, boasts a triple-digit fastball with sinking action that allows him to post groundball rates near 60% on a yearly basis.

While control and injury issues have dogged Hicks throughout his career, the righty is still three seasons away from his 30th birthday and impressed this season with a career-high 28.4% strikeout rate. While his 3.29 ERA hardly jumps off the page for a back-end relief arm, it’s worth noting that Hicks’ season numbers are skewed by a brutal early-season performance where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings across seven appearances. After that point, Hicks boasted a sterling 2.40 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate against a 9.6% walk rate in his final 60 innings of work. While its not reasonable to simply ignore a rocky start to the season entirely, Hicks’s strong performance after the first two weeks of his season does highlight the tantalizing upside the right-hander has flashed throughout his career.

The Astros, on the other hand, are a somewhat less obvious suitor. Veteran righty Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the club’s closer, while young hurler Bryan Abreu has emerged as one of the best young relief arms in the league with a 1.84 ERA and 2.59 FIP across the past two seasons. That duo led the Astros’ relief corps to a sterling 3.56 ERA in 2023, the sixth-best figure in the league. Houston’s bullpen sports similarly strong advanced metrics, as only six clubs posted a better collective SIERA than the Astros’ 3.79 figure.

Good as the club’s relief corps was in 2023, however, it’s important to note that the Astros have since lost key pieces such as Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. While Pressly and Abreu certainly make for a strong back-end duo, Houston looking to replace those outgoing arms is hardly a surprise, and few options available figure to be better than Hicks. While the Astros clearly need additional relief arms to supplement the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Hicks is the most realistic target for the club from a financial perspective. GM Dana Brown cautioned earlier in the offseason that the club doesn’t have “a ton” of financial flexibility to work with this winter while telling reporters he’s “not interested in overpaying” for bullpen arms.

Given the club’s limited financial flexibility, it would register as something of a surprise for the Astros to commit a hefty sum to a single reliever given their other needs. The Astros are known to be in the market for a backup catcher in addition to bullpen, to say nothing of the possibility they look to add a left-handed bat to replace Michael Brantley or shore up a starting rotation lacking in certainty behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. While it’s impossible to deny that the addition of Hicks to a bullpen that already features Abreu and Pressly could create a three-headed monster that few teams could replicate, it’s fair as a wonder if a cheaper option could be more feasible for Houston from a financial perspective. One such option could be a reunion with Hector Neris, who The Athletic’s Chandler Rome relayed this evening Brown has been in contact with. MLBTR ranked Neris, who posted a 1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 68 1/3 innings for the Astros last year, as the offseason’s #46 free agent while projecting him for a two-year, $15MM deal.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 10:29pm CDT

At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.

Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.

After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.

The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.

Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.

After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.

If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.

Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.

Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.

Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.

Cardinals Plan To Add “At Least Two” Relief Arms This Offseason

By Nick Deeds | October 31, 2023 at 1:54pm CDT

It’s long been understood that the top priority for the Cardinals this offseason is adding to their starting rotation, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak himself stating that the club intends to at three starting pitchers this winter. Even as the club’s focus seems to be on bolstering the rotation, however, The Athletic’s Katie Woo indicated today that the club plans to make additions to its relief corps as well, noting that the club plans to add “at least two high-leverage arms” who can join Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos in the club’s late-inning mix.

The news isn’t necessarily surprising. Cardinals relievers posted an uninspiring 4.47 ERA across their 579 2/3 innings covered in 2023, the third-worst figure in the NL above only the Nationals and Rockies. Only the Rangers’ relief corps had a higher ERA than the Cardinals this year when looking at teams that finished the season with a winning record, and just four (Texas, Cincinnati, Miami, and Arizona) even finished in the bottom half of the league. Given St. Louis has clearly indicated a desire to return to contention as soon as next season, shoring up the club’s bullpen mix figures to be a key component of that goal.

The Cardinals have already been connected to one upcoming relief free agent: NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui, who is expected to explore signing in the majors this offseason. While fellow southpaw JoJo Romero impressed in high leverage opportunities following the trade deadline, it would certainly reasonable if the Cardinals don’t want to anoint Romero as their bullpen’s top lefty after just 36 2/3 innings of work in the majors last year, no matter how brilliant he appeared to be in flashes.

Of course, Matsui isn’t the only left-handed relief option headed for free agency this offseason. The class is led by star closer Josh Hader, who authored a sensational platform season with the Padres in 2023. Hader struck out 36.8% of batters faced this season en route to a 1.28 ERA (321 ERA+), 2.69 FIP and 33 saves in 38 chances. Other potential high-leverage left-handers set to hit the market this offseason are veteran fireballer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Matt Moore, who’s broken out over the past two seasons to become one of the top lefty relievers in the sport during his mid-thirties.

In terms of right-handed relief options, the market is a little thinner, headlined by former Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks. The Cardinals dealt Hicks to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline this year, though not before attempting to negotiate an extension with the 27-year-old hurler. Woo reports that the sides came close to an agreement on a three-year extension this summer before talks ultimately fell apart, prompting St. Louis to ship Hicks to Toronto.

Despite the sides parting back in July, Woo indicates that there’s reason to believe the sides could again look to negotiate a long-term deal this offseason, noting that “there’s no ruling out” a Cardinals reunion with either Hicks or left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery, who has impressed since joining the Rangers with a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch and a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work during the club’s pennant-winning postseason run. If the Cardinals can’t get together with Hicks on a reunion, there are a few other right-handed relief options who could offer high leverage innings in 2023, including Braves righty Joe Jimenez as well as Reynaldo Lopez, who put up solid numbers while bouncing between the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians in 2023.

NL Central Notes: Molina, Cardinals, Marlins, Kelly, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 3:26pm CDT

With Yadier Molina and the Cardinals in talks about a coaching job for the longtime catcher, Molina discussed the situation in an interview with 550 KTRS radio (hat tip to Luis Nolla of KTRS for the partial transcript). “I think there is something cooking with St. Louis,” Molina said, estimating “a 90 percent chance that it happens.” After retiring following the 2022 season, Molina revealed that he had offers for some kind of coaching roles from both the Cardinals last year and from the Marlins.

In terms of his coaching future in general, Molina said “I see myself managing, coaching in the United States for a few years. I like it. I am a guy that is fascinated with baseball, and I am passionate about it. To have an opportunity like that I cannot pass….St. Louis has given me the opportunity. It is my second home. There is always a good relationship and communication with them. They are trying to guide me to that way, in the matter of being a coach. They have their staff who have a good job with the team. It would be an opportunity that it will be hard to say no to. I love St. Louis.”

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