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Rays Notes: Lowe, Chang, Littell

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The Rays are shutting down outfielder Josh Lowe from all baseball activity for the next six days due to inflammation in his left hip, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Lowe could be out of games for up to 15 days while he lets the issue calm down, but manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the team is “not overly concerned” and doesn’t think Lowe is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day.

The 26-year-old Lowe had a breakout 2023 season, slashing .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers, 32 stolen bases and quality defense across all three outfield spots (primarily right field). The majority of his playing time came against right-handed pitching, though Lowe wasn’t completely overmatched even in 67 left-on-left matchups (.238/.284/.429). He’s expected to be in the lineup on a near-everyday basis in 2024, so while the team and player are both projecting confidence he’ll be ready for the start of the season, his progression from the current hip issue is worth watching with a careful eye. If Lowe were to wind up missing time, Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios would be among the options to step up.

Also ailing is non-roster invitee Yu Chang, who’ll be down at least two weeks with an oblique injury, per the Times’ Kristie Ackert (X link). If testing reveals a strain of any note, there’s a chance Chang could miss the remainder of camp, as even Grade 1 oblique strains regularly shelve players for a month or more. Cash seems to be anticipating an absence of some note, calling the injury “unfortunate” and noting that Chang will likely “miss some time” (via Topkin’s column).

The slick-fielding Chang went 1-for-3 with a homer to begin his spring tenure with the Rays as he competes for what would be his second MLB stint with the team. As a career .204/.269/.359 hitter in 650 big league plate appearances, Chang would seem unlikely to provide the Rays with much at the plate — should be make the team. However, he’s a strong and versatile defender, with at least 300 innings and quality defensive ratings at all four infield spots.

Like Chang, right-hander Zack Littell is no stranger to coming to big league camp and fighting for a job. This spring is different for the 28-year-old, however, as he’s locked into a rotation spot for the first time in his career. He spoke with MLB.com’s Adam Berry about the freedom that gives him to experiment with tweaks to his pitches, mechanics, etc. without fearing poor results will cost him a job.

“It’s nice to have a true six weeks where … you can go out there and you can really play with this stuff and find what works, and either run with it or say, ’Hey, we’re going the wrong direction,'” Littell said.

Though he was a starter in the upper minors and a well-regarded prospect with the Mariners, Yankees and Twins, Littell quickly settled into a relief role in the majors and has since begun to bounce around the league via a series of DFAs and waiver claims. The Rays claimed him from the Red Sox last May, initially deploying him in his familiar bullpen role, but stretched Littell back out closer to the trade deadline as injuries on the pitching staff mounted.

Few could’ve predicted just how well what looked like a desperation move wound up panning out. Over a span of 11 starts, Littell posted a 3.38 ERA in 65 innings of work. That mark was propped up by a .262 average on balls in play and 77% strand rate; paired with a sub-par strikeout rate, it led metrics like FIP (4.04) and SIERA (4.26) to take a bit more of a bearish outlook on Littell’s contributions. It’s also worth wondering whether he can sustain the sensational 1.9% walk rate — more than six percentage points south of his career mark — he turned in during that time.

Regardless, Littell pitched his way into an opportunity to show he can sustain success out of a big league rotation. Cash made perfectly clear that he’ll be given every chance to do so, telling Berry that Littell is currently in line to start the team’s second or third game of the season.

If the Rays have pulled yet another rabbit out of their hat on the starting pitching front and can successfully keep Littell productive in his new role, it’ll prove to be an affordable, multi-year solution. As a player with 4.043 years of MLB service, Littell is under club control through 2025. And with his limited big league track record to date, this year’s arbitration salary clocked in at a modest $1.85MM. If he can indeed sustain some of last year’s rotation success, he could hold a spot in the rotation into next season, when he’d likely still cost the club under $5MM.

Rays Make Four Roster Moves

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The Rays announced four roster moves, including the selection of Javy Guerra’s contract and the call-up of infielder/outfielder Jonathan Aranda from Triple-A Durham.  Outfielder Josh Lowe has been placed on the family medical emergency list and right-hander Elvin Rodriguez has been designated for assignment.

Aranda will get his first MLB opportunity of the season, and a chance to follow up on his 32 games played in his 2022 rookie season.  The 25-year-old hit .192/.276/.321 over 87 plate appearances last year, and it becoming clear that Aranda has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level.  Over 784 PA in Durham over the last two seasons, Aranda has crushed the ball to the tune of a .327/.418/.548 slash line with 34 home runs.

Beginning his career as a second baseman, Aranda has followed the path of many Rays prospects and become a multi-positional threat, getting a lot of playing time at third base, first base, left field, and a bit of shortstop time.  This gives manager Kevin Cash some flexibility in trying to figure out where to slot Aranda around the diamond, though it remains to be seen how long he’ll remain in the majors — hopefully Lowe returns quickly from his family situation, and Aranda could again be the odd man out.

Due to the Rays’ position-player depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Aranda has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate if there’s no regular spot for him on Tampa’s roster.  Depending on how long he remains in the majors, this stint could serve as something of an audition for rival scouts in advance of the trade deadline, though it’s safe to assume that other teams have had eyes on Aranda in Durham for quite some time.

Not to be confused with 11-year MLB veteran reliever Javy Guerra, the Rays’ Guerra is the 27-year-old who converted to pitching after being a top-100 shortstop prospect during his time in the Padres’ farm system.  The Rays acquired Guerra from the Brewers in late April and he has a 3.60 ERA over five innings with Tampa Bay this season, though he was outrighted off the 40-man roster in May.

Guerra chose to accept the outright assignment to Triple-A rather than test free agency, and his 5.94 ERA over 16 2/3 innings in Durham isn’t quite reflective of his performance, given his secondary metrics.  His 23% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate aren’t spectacular, though his 58.3% grounder rate has been hurt by some unfortunate batted-ball luck, as Guerra has a .340 BABIP.

Bullpen churn is a staple of Tampa Bay’s pitching strategies, and Rodriguez hits the DFA wire just a day after being selected to the 26-man roster.  He looked very sharp in throwing 3 1/3 perfect innings in the Rays’ 2-1 loss to the Braves, but Rodriguez is now on his way out of the organization altogether, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Rodriguez will be released so he can sign with a team in Japan.  Somewhat curiously, this plan was in place before Rodriguez had his contract selected yesterday, but fortunately it looks like Rodriguez avoided any injury and got to bank a big league appearance before heading to Nippon Professional Baseball.

Rodriguez’s first seven MLB games came with the Tigers in 2022, when he posted a 10.62 ERA over 29 2/3 innings.  The Rays signed him to a minors deal in the offseason, but without a long-term spot available in Tampa Bay, the 25-year-old Rodriguez chose to take what Topkin calls “a lucrative offer” from an NPB club.

Checking In On The Rays’ Left-Handed Bats

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Back in October, just after the Rays had been bounced from the postseason, president of baseball operations Erik Neander gave a press conference and outlined some goals for the offseason. One area targeted for improvement was the club’s performance against right-handed pitching. As a whole, the team hit .234/.305/.373 against righties, leading to a 99 wRC+ that indicates they were just a hair below average.

“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better,” Neander said at that time. Cut to April and the club apparently decided that the standing pat thing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. They made no moves this offseason to add to their lineup. In fact, they subtracted from it, as players like Kevin Kiermaier, Ji Man Choi and Miles Mastrobuoni are now on different teams. Aside from signing Zach Eflin, all the club’s offseason additions were minor leaguers, with most of those being pitchers.

The MLB offseason was generally considered to be on the robust side, with many contracts going well beyond predictions, especially for the top free agents. It’s possible that the low-spending Rays simply got priced out of whatever plans they initially drew up for the winter. Whatever the reasons, the club didn’t bring in anyone from outside the organization and is relying on internal options, at least for now. The season is still young but the early results are encouraging, as the club is 14-2 and hitting a collective .276/.364/.544 against righties for a 155 wRC+ so far. Let’s dig in on the players individually.

Brandon Lowe

In the first few years of his career, Lowe had established himself as one of the key members of the Tampa lineup. He hit 14 home runs in the shortened 2020 season and added 39 more the next year. Over those two seasons combined, he hit .253/.346/.532 for a wRC+ of 141.

Unfortunately, he was hobbled in the health department last year. He made trips to the injured list due to lower back issues and a triceps contusion. He only got into 65 games and produced a diminished .221/.308/.383 slash line when on the field for a 104 wRC+. Early indications suggest that Lowe has put those injuries behind him, as he is off to a great start. He has five home runs in his first 14 games and is currently batting .310/.442/.690 for a 215 wRC+.

Wander Franco

Franco’s arc is fairly similar to Lowe’s. His track record in the majors isn’t as long, but he was considered the top prospect in the sport for quite a while and then performed well in 2021 while only 20 years old. But the switch-hitter was also snakebitten in 2022, making trips to the IL due to a quad strain and wrist discomfort. He only got into 83 games and hit .277/.328/.417 for a wRC+ of 116, still above average but not elite. But like Lowe, he seems to be healthy and in a good groove here this year. He already has four long balls and is batting .318/.366/.621 for a wRC+ of 176.

Taylor Walls

The switch-hitting Walls has always hit well in the minors but hasn’t been able to translate it to the majors. Coming into this year, his career batting line was .182/.281/.288. He’s off to a strong start here in 2023 though, batting .281/.378/.469 through 37 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 144.

Francisco Mejía

Mejía isn’t off to the same blazing start as some of his teammates. The switch-hitting catcher is batting just .167/.276/.208 through his first 29 plate appearances. He and Christian Bethancourt have been splitting the catching duties fairly evenly so far, but the right-handed-hitting Bethancourt is performing much better at the plate and could increase his share as the season goes along.

Luke Raley

Acquired from the Dodgers in a trade just prior to the 2022 season, Raley got into 22 games with the Rays last year but hit just .197/.306/.279. He’s still striking out at a 31% clip in 2023 but has hit three homers in just 13 games, leading to a .222/.310/.528 slash line and 131 wRC+.

Josh Lowe

Lowe has long been one of the club’s highly-touted prospects, having been selected 13th overall in 2016 and performing well in the minors. He got a two-game cameo in the big leagues in 2021 but struggled in his first meaningful taste of the majors. He hit .221/.284/.343 last year and struck out in 33.3% of his trips to the plate. He’s been far superior this season, cutting that strikeout rate in half to 16.7% and hitting three home runs in just 12 games. His current batting line of .359/.405/.718 amounts to a wRC+ 213.

Vidal Bruján

Long one of the club’s most significant prospects, Bruján has struggled badly against major league pitching. He had a batting line of .150/.207/.231 over 62 games coming into this year. The club was granted a fourth option for him, allowing them to send him to the minors on Opening Day, but he was called up when Jose Siri landed on the injured list. Bruján is hitting .333/.333/.333 through 15 plate appearances but has six strikeouts (a 40% rate) in that tiny sample.

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda got to make his MLB debut last year but didn’t crack the Opening Day roster here in 2023. He’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, hitting a couple of home runs for the Durham Bulls and drawing walks in a massive 24% of his 50 plate appearances. His current batting line is .250/.440/.444 for a 136 wRC+.

Kyle Manzardo

Manzardo isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the club’s top prospects and is playing in Triple-A, meaning a debut at some point this year is on the table. He has three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate for the Bulls so far this year, leading to a .262/.333/.548 batting line and 115 wRC+ through 12 games.

Greg Jones

Jones is on the 40-man roster but he’s in Double-A and therefore not likely to be at the front of the line for a call-up. He’s also not forcing the issue right now, hitting .167/.189/.417 through eight games for the Montgomery Biscuits.

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All of these numbers come with small sample warnings, as the Rays have only played 16 games thus far. Also, the strength of their competition has been fairly weak, as their 13-game winning streak to start the season came against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and Red Sox. When they finally faced a team that’s generally considered to be a contender by squaring off against the Blue Jays this past weekend, they went 1-2.

The fact that they demolished the pitching of rebuilding clubs like the Nats and A’s doesn’t mean that we can declare the situation resolved, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Franco and Brandon Lowe aren’t likely to sustain these torrid streaks, but it’s a good sign that they are healthy and are making the 2022 struggles seem like temporary injury setbacks. Walls can’t suddenly be declared a superstar, but he’s considered a strong defender and any offense he can provide is a nice bonus. We also can’t say that Raley and Josh Lowe have cemented themselves as successful big league hitters, but they’ve shown tremendous promise in the minors and could be getting acclimated to big league pitching. Lowe’s much-improved strikeout rate is especially positive.

As the season goes along and the Rays face stronger competition, it’s entirely possible that this picture looks less glowing. However, the games all count the same and they already have 14 wins in the bank, which makes it highly likely they stay in contention up until the trade deadline. If they need to upgrade on any of the hitters in this group, they have a very strong farm system and should be able to bolster their left-handed options by making a deal or two. But if even one or two of these early developments start to seem more real, their urgency to do so will be lessened.

Rays Continuing To Explore Market For Offensive Help

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Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander told reporters during his season-closing press conference back in October that the club wanted to add a big bat this winter — particularly of the left-handed-hitting variety — after Tampa Bay’s offense managed to score only one run over 24 innings in that marathon two-game Wild Card Series ouster versus the Guardians.

Rays hitters combined for a .686 OPS during the 2022 regular season, which ranked 25th among all 30 major league clubs. And against right-handed pitching, their combined team batting line was just .234/.305/.373 across a sample size of 4,580 total plate appearances.

Nothing overly exciting has come together for the Rays up to this point, and Neander acknowledged in a recent chat with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that it’s probably too late to make a meaningful offensive addition from what’s left on the open market.

“As the winter went on, and as we spoke publicly, I think the focus was more on an established player, ideally left-handed, being the right type of player for our group,” Neander told Topkin. “We feel really good about the assortment of breakthrough and bounce-back players we have on our roster currently. It was really more about adding an established, consistent offensive player, and there aren’t that many of them out there that are available.”

There was chatter about a number of possible pursuits to help the cause — the Rays were linked at various points to free agents like Josh Bell and Andrew McCutchen. They were also said to be in the hunt for Sean Murphy before the Athletics dealt him to the Braves as part of a three-team swap that also involved the Brewers. Topkin writes that Tampa Bay also made runs at Michael Brantley and Brandon Belt before those players signed elsewhere.

The hope is that a trade for run-scoring help might come together sometime this spring, or better yet before the Rays even roll into camp in Orlando, Florida. Neander also plans to keep his ear open for in-season moves in 2023, should those “breakthrough and bounce-back players” — think Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, and Jonathan Aranda — fail to come through over the course of the first half.

It’s all quite daunting in an AL East that features the Blue Jays (3rd in combined OPS last year at .760) and the Yankees (4th in combined OPS at .751), but Topkin suggests the Rays could have room to add to a roughly $70MM payroll as the baseball calendar moves toward the summer months.

Maybe there could be a circle-back with the A’s, who always seem to be open for business and would likely listen on Seth Brown even after he cranked 25 home runs in 150 games last year. Or perhaps there might be a match with Twins on Max Kepler given Minnesota’s recent addition of Michael A. Taylor from the Royals. One thing the Rays do have is prospects, both low-level and the more MLB-ready types, and Tampa Bay’s front office has certainly never lacked for creativity in finding ways to pull off under-the-radar improvements.

Latest On Manuel Margot

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June 22: Cash provided a fairly positive update on Margot Wednesday, telling reporters the early testing results “are looking better than not” (Topkin link). He’s facing an extended absence in any event and a specific timetable won’t be known until the club has an official diagnosis, but Cash indicated Margot could still return this season.

June 21: Tampa Bay has placed both Margot and Kiermaier on the injured list. Infielder Jonathan Aranda is up for his Major League debut, and outfielder Luke Raley has been recalled as well.

Topkin tweeted this morning that the team expects Margot’s absence to be “significant,” and Jim Bowden of The Athletic suggests there are those in the organization who fear an ACL injury to Margot. The Rays announced that the results of Margot’s MRI are still pending and are continuing to refer to it as a “knee sprain” for the time being.

June 20: The Rays are likely to place outfielders Manuel Margot and Kevin Kiermaier on the 10-day injured list, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Both players made early exits from tonight’s loss to the Yankees, and Margot in particular seems to be facing an extended absence.

Margot had to be carted off the field in the top of the ninth inning. Playing right field, he leaped into the wall in pursuit of an Aaron Hicks fly ball. He landed awkwardly on his right knee after the collision and had to be carted off the field. Cash said after the game he’s been diagnosed with a knee sprain and ominously noted “it doesn’t look good.”

Kiermaier, meanwhile, departed after the second inning. The team later announced he was dealing with inflammation in his left hip, and that issue will apparently require he miss at least a week and a half. It marked the second time in five days that Kiermaier had to make an early exit, and while his latest issue is different than the Achilles inflammation that forced his departure last Wednesday, it’ll lead to an absence of some kind.

Needless to say, the loss of a couple regular outfielders will force Tampa Bay to dip into its depth. Randy Arozarena has started at designated hitter in each of the past two nights, but he’ll now head back to left field on a more or less everyday basis. Highly-regarded rookie Josh Lowe was recalled before tonight’s game after a six-week stint in Triple-A Durham. He figures to assume regular reps in either center or right field, but it remains to be seen how much of an offensive impact he’ll make. The 24-year-old has only a .179/.257/.328 line through his first 75 MLB plate appearances; he posted big numbers with the Bulls but also struck out at an alarming 31.2% rate in the minors.

Tampa Bay has a pair of out-of-options backup outfielders on the active roster in Brett Phillips and Harold Ramírez. Both players could assume larger roles with Margot and Kiermaier out, but each would probably be miscast as an everyday player. Phillips is an excellent defender but is hitting .172/.238/.291 with a 41.6% strikeout rate. Ramírez is performing at the plate (.297/.337/.386) but has rated as a well below-average defender throughout his career.

The Rays could turn to a loose platoon arrangement between the left-handed hitting Phillips and the righty-swinging Ramírez in right field with Lowe playing center, particularly if they anticipate Kiermaier’s absence being on the shorter side. Former Dodger Luke Raley is on the 40-man roster and hitting well in Durham, and he could be recalled to add some offense-first bench depth. It seems likely the club will at least poke around the market for potential external additions, though, considering the amount of uncertainty with each of Lowe, Phillips, Ramírez and Raley.

It has been a rough stretch for the Rays, who’ve been without their primary middle infield of Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco and their #1 backstop Mike Zunino for weeks. The losses of Margot and Kiermaier will leave the club without five of their regular position players, and it’s little surprise the team has sputtered of late. Tampa Bay has dropped six of their past seven games to fall to 36-31. They now sit a half-game back of the Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

The rough injury news wasn’t limited to what happened tonight, as Cash also provided a discouraging update on reliever Nick Anderson pregame. The right-hander has been on the IL all season after undergoing a UCL brace procedure last October. His initial recovery timeline suggested a possible return around the All-Star Break, but Cash said he’s still feeling elbow discomfort and will go for further evaluation tomorrow (Topkin link). More will obviously be known in the coming days, but it seems unlikely the 31-year-old will be back on a major league mound in the near future.

Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz

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This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)

125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527

Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.

Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.

Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)

171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368

Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)

32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9

On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.

The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)

150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404

Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.

Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.

Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)

13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9

Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.

Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.

Five More

MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.

Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.

Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.

Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.

Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.

Rays Option Josh Lowe, Designate Robert Dugger

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The Rays have optioned rookie outfielder Josh Lowe to Triple-A Durham and designated right-hander Robert Dugger for assignment, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The moves reduce the Rays’ active roster count from 28 to 26.

Lowe, one of the sport’s top prospects, broke camp with the big league club after Tampa Bay’s late-spring trade of Austin Meadows to Detroit. The lefty-hitting outfielder has gotten off to a slow start, however, hitting .188/.257/.344 with one home run over 71 plate appearances. Lowe’s 38% strikeout percentage and 67.9% contact rate are both far worse than this year’s respective league averages (22.9% and 75.8%). Lowe also had an elevated 26.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year, but he more than offset that with 22 homers, 26 stolen bases and a robust 13% walk percentage.

There’s still plenty of time for the 24-year-old to put things together well enough and allow his combination of power, athleticism, and plate discipline to overcome swing-and-miss issues. Yet for the time being, the Rays will get him more run against minor league pitching to try to work through those contact concerns. Tampa Bay will proceed with an outfield of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramírez and Brett Phillips. Of that group, only Arozarena could be optioned, making Lowe the odd man out as rosters shrunk if the Rays didn’t want to risk losing Ramírez or Phillips on waivers.

Between Lowe’s early struggles and the Rays’ outfield depth, there’s a case to be made for his option strictly from a baseball perspective. Depending upon how long he’s in the minor leagues, though, the assignment could have an effect on his window of team control.

Lowe entered this season with 26 days of MLB service, MLBTR has learned. Players are credited with a full service year upon reaching 172 days on an active roster. That means he needs to spend at least 146 days in the majors this season to end the 2022 campaign with over one year of service. Lowe spent around 25 days on the roster before being optioned, leaving him approximately 121 days from the one-year threshold. There’s still time to reach that mark, but if the optional assignment lingers into June, Lowe’s path to free agency after the 2027 season could come into question.

Dugger was just added to the big league club yesterday. He worked 5 1/3 innings of three-run ball in mop-up relief during the team’s loss to the Twins. That seemed as if it’d make him a quick DFA candidate, considering his 87 pitches took him out of commission for a few days. Dugger couldn’t be optioned, so the only way to take him off the active roster was via DFA.

Tampa Bay signed Dugger to a minor league contract in Spring Training. The 26-year-old has made five appearances and worked 16 frames with Durham, posting a 3.94 ERA with 13 strikeouts and seven walks. By calling him up yesterday, the Rays assume the risk of losing him from the organization. They’ll presumably place him on waivers in the coming days, and Dugger would have the right to refuse a new minor league assignment if he passes through unclaimed by virtue of having previously been outrighted in his career.

Tigers Acquire Austin Meadows

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The Tigers announced this evening they’ve acquired outfielder Austin Meadows from the Rays for infielder Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance Round B selection. Tampa Bay had reportedly been shopping Meadows in recent weeks, and he’ll land in Detroit.

It’s a notable, largely unexpected strike for Detroit. There wasn’t any indication the Tigers were on the hunt for outfield help, as they’d seemingly been content to open the year with a Robbie Grossman, Víctor Reyes, Akil Baddoo trio. Top prospect Riley Greene fractured his foot over the weekend, however, and is expected to be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks. Whether Greene’s injury increased the urgency for general manager Al Avila and his staff to add to the outfield isn’t clear, but they’ll do so by bringing aboard a player who’s only a couple seasons removed from an All-Star campaign.

Meadows was part of the Rays now-famous haul from the Pirates at the 2018 trade deadline for Chris Archer. A top prospect during his days in the Pittsburgh farm system, he hit the ground running with a solid rookie showing before breaking out the following season. Meadows hit a massive .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs in 591 plate appearances in 2019, seemingly emerging as one of the sport’s top young sluggers.

He hasn’t kept up that pace in the past two seasons. The lefty-hitting Meadows stumbled to a .205/.296/.371 line during the shortened 2020 campaign, striking out at an alarming 32.9% clip. That was obviously an anomalous year, and the the former 9th overall pick did bounce back this past season — albeit not close to his 2019 levels. Meadows hit .234/.315/.458 in 591 plate appearances, somewhat offsetting his 27 homers with a mediocre batting average and on-base percentage.

To his credit, the strikeout woes that had plagued Meadows in 2020 were corrected. He only fanned in 20.6% of his trips to the dish last season. His 77.2% contact rate was right in line with the league mark, while his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact percentage were all a bit higher than average. Meadows was instead plagued by a career-low .249 batting average on balls in play.

That can’t all be chalked up to misfortune, as he has gotten increasingly fly-ball oriented over the past couple seasons. Among 135 hitters with 500+ plate appearances in 2021, no one had a higher fly-ball rate than Meadows’ 53% clip. That’s a recipe for hitting for power but also for poor ball in play results, as non-homer fly balls rarely turn into hits.

Whatever concerns one may have about Meadows’ batted ball profile, it’s still easy to see his appeal to the Tigers. Over parts of four big league seasons, he owns a .260/.333/.489 slash line — offensive production that checks in 22 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. While he hasn’t been at his best in two years, he was still an above-average hitter in 2021, and the 2019 campaign offers a hint of the kind of offensive upside he possesses if he can again bring his fly-ball rate closer to that season’s 42.9%.

Meadows does have rather marked platoon splits. For his career, he’s a .271/.351/.525 hitter against right-handed pitching. He owns a more pedestrian .237/.295/.412 slash against southpaws. The Tigers outfield already skewed a bit left-handed, with Greene and Baddoo hitting from that side of the dish while Reyes are Grossman are switch-hitters. Meadows doesn’t need to be a strict platoon player, though, and the rest of the Detroit lineup is heavily right-handed. Presumably, Meadows will step into an everyday corner outfield role for skipper A.J. Hinch, who’ll have the freedom to perhaps drop him down a bit in the order on days when the opposing team will roll out a tough lefty starter.

It’s an immediate upgrade for a Detroit team that has also added Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodríguez, Tucker Barnhart, Andrew Chafin and Michael Pineda this winter. Avila and his staff are clearly trying to pull out of their recent rebuild, and the Meadows addition should be a notable upgrade to the offense. It’s not an absolute win-now move, though, as the 26-year-old (27 next month) is controllable for three seasons via arbitration. Meadows and the Rays had settled on a $4MM salary for 2022, and he’s not slated to hit free agency until after 2024.

That makes Meadows a fairly affordable pick-up for Detroit, but he was part of a large arbitration class that might’ve put a strain on the Rays payroll. Even after subtracting his $4MM salary from the books, Tampa Bay has a projected franchise-record $83MM player payroll, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The Rays reportedly made a run at Freddie Freeman, so they were willing to stretch beyond their typical comfort zone for the right player, but that surprising pursuit always seemed to be a recognition of Freeman’s star status.

In addition to whatever payroll constraints president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his staff might’ve been facing, they clearly felt prepared to deal from a position of organizational depth. The Rays have Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot on hand as outfield options. Top prospect Josh Lowe, meanwhile, seems ready for a big league look after hitting .291/.381/.535 in 111 games with Triple-A Durham last season.

The team apparently feels Lowe is ready for a significant role on a team with World Series aspirations. Rays pre-game broadcaster Neil Solondz tweets that the club plans to recall the 24-year-old to break camp in the majors. Given his status as a consensus Top 50 prospect, Lowe will certainly be in line for regular at-bats. He, Margot and Kiermaier are each possible plus defenders at all three outfield spots, giving manager Kevin Cash a chance to run some excellent defensive groups on the grass. (Arozarena is primarily a corner outfielder but rates well there in his own right).

In exchange for dealing from that outfield depth, the Rays add another young bat to their infield mix. Paredes has been on the prospect radar for quite some time, but he only recently turned 23 years old. A right-handed hitter, he doesn’t possess overwhelming power or athleticism but he has excellent bat-to-ball skills.

Paredes hasn’t produced much in limited big league action the past couple seasons. Over 163 plate appearances, he owns a meager .215/.290/.302 line with a pair of home runs. He has posted excellent offensive numbers all the way up the minor league ladder, though, and the Rays are betting on those skills eventually carrying over against big league pitching.

Paredes, who appeared at the tail end of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in both 2019 and 2020, is coming off a .265/.397/.451 showing in 315 Triple-A plate appearances. He hit 11 homers and walked at a huge 17.8% clip while only striking out 14.9% of the time. Among 96 Triple-A East hitters with 300+ plate appearances, Paredes sported the third-highest walk rate. No one in that group had a better walk to strikeout ratio, with minor league veteran Tyler White the only other player in the league to even walk more often than he punched out.

While Paredes has experience at each of second base, third base and shortstop, he’s primarily played the former two positions in recent years. He’ll step into a Tampa Bay infield mix that is quite crowded itself. Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe have the middle infield spoken for, while Yandy Díaz joins Paredes and fellow former top prospects Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján in the mix at third base. Díaz figures to assume some DH at-bats vacated by Meadows’ departure, which would enable the Rays to get their younger players some action at the hot corner. All three of Walls, Bruján and Paredes have minor league option years remaining, so they can each bounce between St. Petersburg and Durham as well.

The Rays have never shied away from churning players off the big league club to bolster the long-term organizational depth. Paredes has just over one year of big league service under his belt. He won’t reach free agency until at least after the 2026 campaign, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he spends enough time in the minors this season to push that trajectory back a year further. Tampa Bay also adds a draft choice that’ll fall after the second round, currently projected for #71 overall. Along with a Competitive Balance Round B pick of their own, the Rays now own four of the top 75 selections — along with the accompanying bonus pool space that stockpiling picks provides.

It’s a fascinating deal between two teams envisioning both immediate and long-term contention in the American League. The Tigers add a potential middle-of-the-order bat, bolstering an outfield fresh off an injury setback. (In a fun tidbit, they also raise the possibility of Meadows pairing with his younger brother Parker — a High-A outfielder in the Detroit system — in the Comerica Park outfield someday). The Rays continue to preemptively stockpile young players and draft capital, building the kind of organizational depth that allows them to perpetually deal good players like Meadows with the knowledge that additional talented players are on the horizon.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Place Wander Franco On 10-Day Injured List

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2:45pm: Manager Kevin Cash says the timeline for Franco’s return is two-to-three weeks, per Topkin (via Twitter). That would get Franco back to the field before the end of the season.

TODAY, 10:40am: As expected, the Rays placed Franco on the 10-day injured list, recalling shortstop Taylor Walls to take his place on the roster. In addition, Randy Arozarena was reinstated from the paternity list and Josh Lowe was optioned back to Triple-A, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Franco will have an MRI done later today to determine the extend of his hamstring strain.

SEPT. 10: Rays shortstop Wander Franco left this evening’s game against the Tigers in the first inning due to right hamstring tightness. After the game, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) the expectation is that Franco will require a stint on the injured list.

Presumably, Franco will go for further testing to determine the extent of the injury and a projected timetable for his return. With an eight and a half game cushion in the AL East, the Rays shouldn’t have much issue weathering the loss of the star rookie for the next few weeks. But it’d obviously be disastrous news for Tampa Bay if the injury were to threaten his readiness for the start of postseason play a little less than a month from now.

The game’s consensus top prospect entering the season, Franco has demonstrated exactly why he’s so highly-regarded over his first couple months in the majors. Tampa Bay selected the switch-hitter to make his big league debut in late June. Franco started off slowly over his first couple weeks, but the 20-year-old’s recent run of play has been historic. He’s reached base safely in each of his past 39 games (including tonight’s contest, in which he singled in his only plate appearance). In MLB history, only Hall of Famer Frank Robinson has posted a longer on-base streak (43 games in 1956) at such a young age.

Altogether, Franco owns a .285/.347/.463 line (126 wRC+) over his first 271 big league plate appearances. He’s walking and hitting for power at essentially league average rates, but Franco has demonstrated excellent bat-to-ball skills. His 12.9% strikeout rate is almost ten percentage points lower than the league average, an impressive achievement for any player — let alone one as young as Franco.

The Rays do have ample infield depth to cover shortstop while Franco’s on the shelf. Fellow top prospects Vidal Bruján and Taylor Walls have logged some big league time this year and could be recalled from Triple-A Durham. Joey Wendle could also slide over from his typical third base position on occasion, with Yandy Díaz capable of manning the hot corner and Ji-Man Choi playing first base in such a scenario.

Rays To Promote Josh Lowe

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The Rays are calling up top outfield prospect Josh Lowe for his Major League debut, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread). Passan adds that it might not be a long-term stay for Lowe in his first big league call-up, Rays fans will apparently still get a look at yet another well-regarded farmhand late in the ’21 season. Lowe is already on the 40-man roster, so the Rays only need to make room on the active roster to accommodate him.

Josh Lowe | USA Today Sports

Lowe, 23, was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2016 draft and has ridden a breakout season in Triple-A to a widely regarded status as one of baseball’s 100 best prospects. He’s posted a .282/.369/.540 batting line (good for a 138 wRC+) while connecting on 21 home runs, 24 doubles and two triples. He’s also gone a perfect 24-for-24 in stolen-base attempts on the season. It’s been a strong follow-up to Lowe’s quality showing at the Double-A level in 2019, when he hit .252/.341/.443 (128 wRC+) in a very pitcher-friendly setting. He and his older brother, Nate, were both in the Rays’ system before the team traded the latter to the Rangers this past offseason.

Keith Law of The Athletic ranked the younger Lowe as baseball’s No. 31 overall prospect on his July 22nd list, calling him a “plus center fielder with patience and power.” Lowe lands No. 40 overall on Eric Longenhagen’s current rankings at FanGraphs, and he was named the No. 76 and No. 89 prospect in baseball on the respective midseason rankings at MLB.com and Baseball America. There are concerns about Lowe’s strikeout tendencies — he’s fanned at a 26.6 percent clip in his minor league career and has matched that level at Triple-A in 2021 — but he also draws walks at a strong clip (12.4 percent this year).

Tampa Bay’s outfield is largely set at the moment with Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier and Randy Arozarena as the go-to options and both Manuel Margot and Jordan Luplow as right-handed options off the bench. Lowe would bring another left-handed-hitting option to the mix, joining Meadows and Kiermaier — the former coming off his worst month of the season at the plate and the latter coming off his best. Lowe seems likely to be just one of a couple moves, as the Rays could also use some additional infield depth on the bench at the moment.

There may not be a long-term opportunity for Lowe in the outfield at the moment, but it seems likely that he’ll have such an opportunity before too long. How they’ll go about facilitating that remains to be seen, but Kiermaier’s name has come up in trade rumblings for years. The 2022 season will be the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, both Margot and Meadows will be up for arbitration raises this offseason. Meadows will enter his first of three arb seasons in 2022, while Margot will be owed a final raise on his current $3.4MM salary before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason. A trade isn’t a foregone conclusion, of course. Designated hitter Nelson Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, and his departure could open the door for Meadows to slide back into a primary designated hitter role, further opening some outfield reps for Lowe (and others).

However it shakes out, the Rays are again on the cusp of bringing yet another high-end talent to the big leagues — one who’ll potentially give the team another cost-effective player to build around as some of the current mainstays on the roster inch closer to free agency or arbitration salaries that ownership deems untenable. There’s always some degree of year-to-year churn on the Rays’ roster, but the consistent development of quality young talent like Lowe has made it sustainable for years now.

From a service-time standpoint, Lowe is already controllable through at least the 2027 season. Depending on how much time he spends in the Majors this year and how the team handles him early in the 2022 season, that could be pushed back to 2028. Under the current system, Lowe would’ve needed to spend 15 days in the minors next year to push that free-agent trajectory back to 2028. That number would grow by one for every day Lowe spends on the MLB roster between now and season’s end. Of course, we don’t know for certain what the arbitration system and service will look like moving forward. Both are hot-button issues in ongoing collective bargaining talks between Major League Baseball and the Players Association, and it’d come as little surprise to see some notable overhaul the current service-time/arbitration structure.

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