Rays Notes: Lowe, Diaz, Aranda
Rays outfielder Josh Lowe appeared to be nearing a return from the injured list after heading out for a rehab assignment earlier this month, but it appears the 26-year-old’s 2024 debut is once again on hold. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported earlier today that Lowe felt some tightness in his right hamstring and is now headed back to Tampa for an MRI, which is scheduled for Monday.
It’s another tough blow for Lowe, who impressed with a .292/.335/.500 slash line in 135 games with the Rays last season. It appeared Lowe was on track to be activated from the shelf as soon as this weekend to take over the everyday job in right field, but now those plans have been scuttled for at least a few days. Rays right fielders have hit an excellent .308/.361/.455 (145 wRC+) in Lowe’s absence, thanks primarily to surprisingly strong performances from Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario in a platoon at the position.
Even so, the return of Lowe to the club’s lineup would surely provide a boost for the Rays by allowing Rosario and Palacios to contribute elsewhere in the lineup, such as second base. The Rays have gotten minimal offensive production from the keystone this season, with their second basemen slashing a collective .227/.292/.299 (81 wRC+) so far this year while struggling youngster Curtis Mead has taken the lion’s share of starts at the position to this point.
Lowe isn’t the only big bat missing from the Rays lineup this weekend, as veteran infielder Yandy Diaz was absent from today’s lineup after being struck in the finger by a 99 mph pitch from right-hander Michael Kopech yesterday. Fortunately, Topkin reported last night that x-rays on Diaz’s hand were negative, indicating that the 32-year-old may be back in the club’s lineup in the near future. It’s been a tough start to the season for the veteran, as he’s slashed just .241/.303/.315 (87 wRC+) in his first 119 trips to the plate.
While his .278 BABIP to this point in the season is far below his career average of .323, Diaz’s 7.8% walk rate in 2024 would be a career low if maintained over the course of a full season and he’s offered little power with just five doubles and one homer to this point in the campaign. If the veteran can right the ship upon returning to the lineup and return to the form that earned him a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting last year, it would be a huge boost for the Rays as they look to bounce back from a difficult start to the season that’s seen them go 13-14 while falling to fourth place in a crowded AL East division.
Also making his way toward a return to the big league lineup is infielder Jonathan Aranda, who’s been out for a little over a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken finger back in March. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Aranda began a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level yesterday. It’s less than two weeks after Aranda had the pins removed from his finger thanks to the fact that Aranda was able to stay active throughout his rehab process.
If Aranda is nearing a return to action, it would give the Rays another left-handed option to complement the likes of Mead and Harold Ramirez both around the infield and at DH. Aranda hit a roughly league average .230/.340/.368 in 103 trips to the plate in the majors last year but impressed this spring with an excellent .371/.421/.571 line in 13 games prior to his injury.
Injury Notes: Garrett, Davis, Lowe, Verlander
The Marlins have been without left-hander Braxton Garrett all season. A shoulder impingement sent the 26-year-old to the injured list to begin the year. Garrett seemed to be nearing a return to the majors after throwing six innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Jacksonville last week, but he has run into a bit of a setback. Manager Skip Schumaker told reporters that Garrett felt a “dead arm” when throwing a bullpen session today (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com).
That isn’t believed to be related to the shoulder injury, yet it could push back his return all the same. Schumaker said Garrett will go for further testing. Getting the former #7 overall pick back in fairly short order would be a needed boost for a club that is off to the worst start in franchise history (3-14). Garrett was a key piece of the rotation a year ago, working 159 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA.
A few other injury notes:
- The A’s placed J.D. Davis on the 10-day injured list shortly before tonight’s game against the Cardinals. The third baseman has a right adductor strain. Speedy outfielder Esteury Ruiz was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas in his place. Davis has gotten the nod at the hot corner for 14 of Oakland’s first 16 contests. He’s off to a slow start, hitting .196/.255/.373 with a lofty 29.1% strikeout rate. Manager Mark Kotsay turned to Abraham Toro at third base tonight.
- Rays outfielder Josh Lowe could be nearing his season debut. Skipper Kevin Cash said that Lowe will head out on a rehab stint with Triple-A Durham on Thursday (link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Lowe was delayed early in camp by inflammation in his left hip. As he worked back from that issue, he strained his right oblique. That knocked him out of game action for a month. Lowe is coming off a breakout season, having hit .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers and 32 steals in 501 plate appearances. The Rays have used Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario in a right field platoon with Lowe on the shelf. They’ve each hit well in the early going, but they’re both capable of bouncing around the diamond once Lowe is ready to return to the lineup.
- Justin Verlander has one final hurdle to clear before he’ll make his season debut. Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters that the three-time Cy Young winner will throw a bullpen session tomorrow (X link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). If that goes according to plan, Verlander will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list for this weekend’s series in Washington. The 41-year-old is coming off a four-inning rehab stint with Double-A Corpus Christi, in which he threw 78 pitches.
Josh Lowe To Open Season On IL With Oblique Injury
Rays outfielder Josh Lowe will open the season on the injured list, reports Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times. He is nursing an oblique injury. The 26-year-old was already in the process of recovering from left hip inflammation which had sidelined him for most of the spring.
After a disappointing rookie season in 2022, Lowe broke out in his sophomore campaign. In 135 games, hit hit .292/.335/.500 with 20 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He finished one plate appearance shy of the threshold for qualification, but had he qualified, he would have ranked fifth in the AL in batting average, eighth in slugging percentage, and seventh with a 131 wRC+. The Rays often shielded him from same-handed pitching, but the lefty-batting Lowe held his own with a .712 OPS and 97 wRC+ against southpaws. On the other side of the ball, he made just two errors all season, racking up 6 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in right field.
It remains unclear how much time Lowe will spend on the IL. Oblique strains can vary widely in severity. Juan Soto suffered a mild oblique strain around this time last year and ended up playing all 162 games of the season. At the same time, it’s not uncommon for a player to miss a couple of months with such an injury. Presumably, the Rays will offer an update on Lowe’s timeline in the coming days.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, the news of Lowe’s injury comes just days after outfielder Jonny DeLuca fractured his right hand. The righty-batting DeLuca seemed like a good candidate to win a bench job and occasionally platoon with Lowe. With those two out of commission, the Rays will likely turn to some combination of Richie Palacios, Amed Rosario, and Harold Ramírez in right field. Neither Palacios nor Ramírez is a strong outfield defender, and Rosario has limited experience outside of the infield. Offensively, however, Rosario and Ramírez give manager Kevin Cash a couple of good options against left-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Palacios is a good bet to get most of the reps against right-handers. The Rays will hope he can improve upon his career .635 OPS (199 PA) against righties in a larger sample size.
Jake Mangum, acquired this winter in the trade that sent Vidal Bruján and Calvin Faucher to the Marlins, is lighting up camp as a non-roster invitee. The switch-hitting outfielder is a dark horse candidate for a spot on Tampa Bay’s bench. This recent spate of injuries could also clear up a path to more playing time for Curtis Mead, albeit indirectly. The young third baseman won’t play the outfield, but he could get more opportunities in the infield with Rosario covering in right. In addition, Mead would give Cash another right-handed bat on the bench for days when Rosario and Ramírez are in the starting lineup.
Rays Notes: Lowe, Chang, Littell
The Rays are shutting down outfielder Josh Lowe from all baseball activity for the next six days due to inflammation in his left hip, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Lowe could be out of games for up to 15 days while he lets the issue calm down, but manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the team is “not overly concerned” and doesn’t think Lowe is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day.
The 26-year-old Lowe had a breakout 2023 season, slashing .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers, 32 stolen bases and quality defense across all three outfield spots (primarily right field). The majority of his playing time came against right-handed pitching, though Lowe wasn’t completely overmatched even in 67 left-on-left matchups (.238/.284/.429). He’s expected to be in the lineup on a near-everyday basis in 2024, so while the team and player are both projecting confidence he’ll be ready for the start of the season, his progression from the current hip issue is worth watching with a careful eye. If Lowe were to wind up missing time, Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios would be among the options to step up.
Also ailing is non-roster invitee Yu Chang, who’ll be down at least two weeks with an oblique injury, per the Times’ Kristie Ackert (X link). If testing reveals a strain of any note, there’s a chance Chang could miss the remainder of camp, as even Grade 1 oblique strains regularly shelve players for a month or more. Cash seems to be anticipating an absence of some note, calling the injury “unfortunate” and noting that Chang will likely “miss some time” (via Topkin’s column).
The slick-fielding Chang went 1-for-3 with a homer to begin his spring tenure with the Rays as he competes for what would be his second MLB stint with the team. As a career .204/.269/.359 hitter in 650 big league plate appearances, Chang would seem unlikely to provide the Rays with much at the plate — should be make the team. However, he’s a strong and versatile defender, with at least 300 innings and quality defensive ratings at all four infield spots.
Like Chang, right-hander Zack Littell is no stranger to coming to big league camp and fighting for a job. This spring is different for the 28-year-old, however, as he’s locked into a rotation spot for the first time in his career. He spoke with MLB.com’s Adam Berry about the freedom that gives him to experiment with tweaks to his pitches, mechanics, etc. without fearing poor results will cost him a job.
“It’s nice to have a true six weeks where … you can go out there and you can really play with this stuff and find what works, and either run with it or say, ‘Hey, we’re going the wrong direction,'” Littell said.
Though he was a starter in the upper minors and a well-regarded prospect with the Mariners, Yankees and Twins, Littell quickly settled into a relief role in the majors and has since begun to bounce around the league via a series of DFAs and waiver claims. The Rays claimed him from the Red Sox last May, initially deploying him in his familiar bullpen role, but stretched Littell back out closer to the trade deadline as injuries on the pitching staff mounted.
Few could’ve predicted just how well what looked like a desperation move wound up panning out. Over a span of 11 starts, Littell posted a 3.38 ERA in 65 innings of work. That mark was propped up by a .262 average on balls in play and 77% strand rate; paired with a sub-par strikeout rate, it led metrics like FIP (4.04) and SIERA (4.26) to take a bit more of a bearish outlook on Littell’s contributions. It’s also worth wondering whether he can sustain the sensational 1.9% walk rate — more than six percentage points south of his career mark — he turned in during that time.
Regardless, Littell pitched his way into an opportunity to show he can sustain success out of a big league rotation. Cash made perfectly clear that he’ll be given every chance to do so, telling Berry that Littell is currently in line to start the team’s second or third game of the season.
If the Rays have pulled yet another rabbit out of their hat on the starting pitching front and can successfully keep Littell productive in his new role, it’ll prove to be an affordable, multi-year solution. As a player with 4.043 years of MLB service, Littell is under club control through 2025. And with his limited big league track record to date, this year’s arbitration salary clocked in at a modest $1.85MM. If he can indeed sustain some of last year’s rotation success, he could hold a spot in the rotation into next season, when he’d likely still cost the club under $5MM.
Rays Make Four Roster Moves
The Rays announced four roster moves, including the selection of Javy Guerra‘s contract and the call-up of infielder/outfielder Jonathan Aranda from Triple-A Durham. Outfielder Josh Lowe has been placed on the family medical emergency list and right-hander Elvin Rodriguez has been designated for assignment.
Aranda will get his first MLB opportunity of the season, and a chance to follow up on his 32 games played in his 2022 rookie season. The 25-year-old hit .192/.276/.321 over 87 plate appearances last year, and it becoming clear that Aranda has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level. Over 784 PA in Durham over the last two seasons, Aranda has crushed the ball to the tune of a .327/.418/.548 slash line with 34 home runs.
Beginning his career as a second baseman, Aranda has followed the path of many Rays prospects and become a multi-positional threat, getting a lot of playing time at third base, first base, left field, and a bit of shortstop time. This gives manager Kevin Cash some flexibility in trying to figure out where to slot Aranda around the diamond, though it remains to be seen how long he’ll remain in the majors — hopefully Lowe returns quickly from his family situation, and Aranda could again be the odd man out.
Due to the Rays’ position-player depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Aranda has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate if there’s no regular spot for him on Tampa’s roster. Depending on how long he remains in the majors, this stint could serve as something of an audition for rival scouts in advance of the trade deadline, though it’s safe to assume that other teams have had eyes on Aranda in Durham for quite some time.
Not to be confused with 11-year MLB veteran reliever Javy Guerra, the Rays’ Guerra is the 27-year-old who converted to pitching after being a top-100 shortstop prospect during his time in the Padres’ farm system. The Rays acquired Guerra from the Brewers in late April and he has a 3.60 ERA over five innings with Tampa Bay this season, though he was outrighted off the 40-man roster in May.
Guerra chose to accept the outright assignment to Triple-A rather than test free agency, and his 5.94 ERA over 16 2/3 innings in Durham isn’t quite reflective of his performance, given his secondary metrics. His 23% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate aren’t spectacular, though his 58.3% grounder rate has been hurt by some unfortunate batted-ball luck, as Guerra has a .340 BABIP.
Bullpen churn is a staple of Tampa Bay’s pitching strategies, and Rodriguez hits the DFA wire just a day after being selected to the 26-man roster. He looked very sharp in throwing 3 1/3 perfect innings in the Rays’ 2-1 loss to the Braves, but Rodriguez is now on his way out of the organization altogether, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Rodriguez will be released so he can sign with a team in Japan. Somewhat curiously, this plan was in place before Rodriguez had his contract selected yesterday, but fortunately it looks like Rodriguez avoided any injury and got to bank a big league appearance before heading to Nippon Professional Baseball.
Rodriguez’s first seven MLB games came with the Tigers in 2022, when he posted a 10.62 ERA over 29 2/3 innings. The Rays signed him to a minors deal in the offseason, but without a long-term spot available in Tampa Bay, the 25-year-old Rodriguez chose to take what Topkin calls “a lucrative offer” from an NPB club.
Checking In On The Rays’ Left-Handed Bats
Back in October, just after the Rays had been bounced from the postseason, president of baseball operations Erik Neander gave a press conference and outlined some goals for the offseason. One area targeted for improvement was the club’s performance against right-handed pitching. As a whole, the team hit .234/.305/.373 against righties, leading to a 99 wRC+ that indicates they were just a hair below average.
“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better,” Neander said at that time. Cut to April and the club apparently decided that the standing pat thing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. They made no moves this offseason to add to their lineup. In fact, they subtracted from it, as players like Kevin Kiermaier, Ji Man Choi and Miles Mastrobuoni are now on different teams. Aside from signing Zach Eflin, all the club’s offseason additions were minor leaguers, with most of those being pitchers.
The MLB offseason was generally considered to be on the robust side, with many contracts going well beyond predictions, especially for the top free agents. It’s possible that the low-spending Rays simply got priced out of whatever plans they initially drew up for the winter. Whatever the reasons, the club didn’t bring in anyone from outside the organization and is relying on internal options, at least for now. The season is still young but the early results are encouraging, as the club is 14-2 and hitting a collective .276/.364/.544 against righties for a 155 wRC+ so far. Let’s dig in on the players individually.
In the first few years of his career, Lowe had established himself as one of the key members of the Tampa lineup. He hit 14 home runs in the shortened 2020 season and added 39 more the next year. Over those two seasons combined, he hit .253/.346/.532 for a wRC+ of 141.
Unfortunately, he was hobbled in the health department last year. He made trips to the injured list due to lower back issues and a triceps contusion. He only got into 65 games and produced a diminished .221/.308/.383 slash line when on the field for a 104 wRC+. Early indications suggest that Lowe has put those injuries behind him, as he is off to a great start. He has five home runs in his first 14 games and is currently batting .310/.442/.690 for a 215 wRC+.
Franco’s arc is fairly similar to Lowe’s. His track record in the majors isn’t as long, but he was considered the top prospect in the sport for quite a while and then performed well in 2021 while only 20 years old. But the switch-hitter was also snakebitten in 2022, making trips to the IL due to a quad strain and wrist discomfort. He only got into 83 games and hit .277/.328/.417 for a wRC+ of 116, still above average but not elite. But like Lowe, he seems to be healthy and in a good groove here this year. He already has four long balls and is batting .318/.366/.621 for a wRC+ of 176.
The switch-hitting Walls has always hit well in the minors but hasn’t been able to translate it to the majors. Coming into this year, his career batting line was .182/.281/.288. He’s off to a strong start here in 2023 though, batting .281/.378/.469 through 37 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 144.
Mejía isn’t off to the same blazing start as some of his teammates. The switch-hitting catcher is batting just .167/.276/.208 through his first 29 plate appearances. He and Christian Bethancourt have been splitting the catching duties fairly evenly so far, but the right-handed-hitting Bethancourt is performing much better at the plate and could increase his share as the season goes along.
Acquired from the Dodgers in a trade just prior to the 2022 season, Raley got into 22 games with the Rays last year but hit just .197/.306/.279. He’s still striking out at a 31% clip in 2023 but has hit three homers in just 13 games, leading to a .222/.310/.528 slash line and 131 wRC+.
Lowe has long been one of the club’s highly-touted prospects, having been selected 13th overall in 2016 and performing well in the minors. He got a two-game cameo in the big leagues in 2021 but struggled in his first meaningful taste of the majors. He hit .221/.284/.343 last year and struck out in 33.3% of his trips to the plate. He’s been far superior this season, cutting that strikeout rate in half to 16.7% and hitting three home runs in just 12 games. His current batting line of .359/.405/.718 amounts to a wRC+ 213.
Long one of the club’s most significant prospects, Bruján has struggled badly against major league pitching. He had a batting line of .150/.207/.231 over 62 games coming into this year. The club was granted a fourth option for him, allowing them to send him to the minors on Opening Day, but he was called up when Jose Siri landed on the injured list. Bruján is hitting .333/.333/.333 through 15 plate appearances but has six strikeouts (a 40% rate) in that tiny sample.
Aranda got to make his MLB debut last year but didn’t crack the Opening Day roster here in 2023. He’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, hitting a couple of home runs for the Durham Bulls and drawing walks in a massive 24% of his 50 plate appearances. His current batting line is .250/.440/.444 for a 136 wRC+.
Manzardo isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the club’s top prospects and is playing in Triple-A, meaning a debut at some point this year is on the table. He has three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate for the Bulls so far this year, leading to a .262/.333/.548 batting line and 115 wRC+ through 12 games.
Jones is on the 40-man roster but he’s in Double-A and therefore not likely to be at the front of the line for a call-up. He’s also not forcing the issue right now, hitting .167/.189/.417 through eight games for the Montgomery Biscuits.
________________________________
All of these numbers come with small sample warnings, as the Rays have only played 16 games thus far. Also, the strength of their competition has been fairly weak, as their 13-game winning streak to start the season came against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and Red Sox. When they finally faced a team that’s generally considered to be a contender by squaring off against the Blue Jays this past weekend, they went 1-2.
The fact that they demolished the pitching of rebuilding clubs like the Nats and A’s doesn’t mean that we can declare the situation resolved, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Franco and Brandon Lowe aren’t likely to sustain these torrid streaks, but it’s a good sign that they are healthy and are making the 2022 struggles seem like temporary injury setbacks. Walls can’t suddenly be declared a superstar, but he’s considered a strong defender and any offense he can provide is a nice bonus. We also can’t say that Raley and Josh Lowe have cemented themselves as successful big league hitters, but they’ve shown tremendous promise in the minors and could be getting acclimated to big league pitching. Lowe’s much-improved strikeout rate is especially positive.
As the season goes along and the Rays face stronger competition, it’s entirely possible that this picture looks less glowing. However, the games all count the same and they already have 14 wins in the bank, which makes it highly likely they stay in contention up until the trade deadline. If they need to upgrade on any of the hitters in this group, they have a very strong farm system and should be able to bolster their left-handed options by making a deal or two. But if even one or two of these early developments start to seem more real, their urgency to do so will be lessened.
Rays Continuing To Explore Market For Offensive Help
Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander told reporters during his season-closing press conference back in October that the club wanted to add a big bat this winter — particularly of the left-handed-hitting variety — after Tampa Bay’s offense managed to score only one run over 24 innings in that marathon two-game Wild Card Series ouster versus the Guardians.
Rays hitters combined for a .686 OPS during the 2022 regular season, which ranked 25th among all 30 major league clubs. And against right-handed pitching, their combined team batting line was just .234/.305/.373 across a sample size of 4,580 total plate appearances.
Nothing overly exciting has come together for the Rays up to this point, and Neander acknowledged in a recent chat with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that it’s probably too late to make a meaningful offensive addition from what’s left on the open market.
“As the winter went on, and as we spoke publicly, I think the focus was more on an established player, ideally left-handed, being the right type of player for our group,” Neander told Topkin. “We feel really good about the assortment of breakthrough and bounce-back players we have on our roster currently. It was really more about adding an established, consistent offensive player, and there aren’t that many of them out there that are available.”
There was chatter about a number of possible pursuits to help the cause — the Rays were linked at various points to free agents like Josh Bell and Andrew McCutchen. They were also said to be in the hunt for Sean Murphy before the Athletics dealt him to the Braves as part of a three-team swap that also involved the Brewers. Topkin writes that Tampa Bay also made runs at Michael Brantley and Brandon Belt before those players signed elsewhere.
The hope is that a trade for run-scoring help might come together sometime this spring, or better yet before the Rays even roll into camp in Orlando, Florida. Neander also plans to keep his ear open for in-season moves in 2023, should those “breakthrough and bounce-back players” — think Wander Franco, Josh Lowe, and Jonathan Aranda — fail to come through over the course of the first half.
It’s all quite daunting in an AL East that features the Blue Jays (3rd in combined OPS last year at .760) and the Yankees (4th in combined OPS at .751), but Topkin suggests the Rays could have room to add to a roughly $70MM payroll as the baseball calendar moves toward the summer months.
Maybe there could be a circle-back with the A’s, who always seem to be open for business and would likely listen on Seth Brown even after he cranked 25 home runs in 150 games last year. Or perhaps there might be a match with Twins on Max Kepler given Minnesota’s recent addition of Michael A. Taylor from the Royals. One thing the Rays do have is prospects, both low-level and the more MLB-ready types, and Tampa Bay’s front office has certainly never lacked for creativity in finding ways to pull off under-the-radar improvements.
Latest On Manuel Margot
June 22: Cash provided a fairly positive update on Margot Wednesday, telling reporters the early testing results “are looking better than not” (Topkin link). He’s facing an extended absence in any event and a specific timetable won’t be known until the club has an official diagnosis, but Cash indicated Margot could still return this season.
June 21: Tampa Bay has placed both Margot and Kiermaier on the injured list. Infielder Jonathan Aranda is up for his Major League debut, and outfielder Luke Raley has been recalled as well.
Topkin tweeted this morning that the team expects Margot’s absence to be “significant,” and Jim Bowden of The Athletic suggests there are those in the organization who fear an ACL injury to Margot. The Rays announced that the results of Margot’s MRI are still pending and are continuing to refer to it as a “knee sprain” for the time being.
June 20: The Rays are likely to place outfielders Manuel Margot and Kevin Kiermaier on the 10-day injured list, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Both players made early exits from tonight’s loss to the Yankees, and Margot in particular seems to be facing an extended absence.
Margot had to be carted off the field in the top of the ninth inning. Playing right field, he leaped into the wall in pursuit of an Aaron Hicks fly ball. He landed awkwardly on his right knee after the collision and had to be carted off the field. Cash said after the game he’s been diagnosed with a knee sprain and ominously noted “it doesn’t look good.”
Kiermaier, meanwhile, departed after the second inning. The team later announced he was dealing with inflammation in his left hip, and that issue will apparently require he miss at least a week and a half. It marked the second time in five days that Kiermaier had to make an early exit, and while his latest issue is different than the Achilles inflammation that forced his departure last Wednesday, it’ll lead to an absence of some kind.
Needless to say, the loss of a couple regular outfielders will force Tampa Bay to dip into its depth. Randy Arozarena has started at designated hitter in each of the past two nights, but he’ll now head back to left field on a more or less everyday basis. Highly-regarded rookie Josh Lowe was recalled before tonight’s game after a six-week stint in Triple-A Durham. He figures to assume regular reps in either center or right field, but it remains to be seen how much of an offensive impact he’ll make. The 24-year-old has only a .179/.257/.328 line through his first 75 MLB plate appearances; he posted big numbers with the Bulls but also struck out at an alarming 31.2% rate in the minors.
Tampa Bay has a pair of out-of-options backup outfielders on the active roster in Brett Phillips and Harold Ramírez. Both players could assume larger roles with Margot and Kiermaier out, but each would probably be miscast as an everyday player. Phillips is an excellent defender but is hitting .172/.238/.291 with a 41.6% strikeout rate. Ramírez is performing at the plate (.297/.337/.386) but has rated as a well below-average defender throughout his career.
The Rays could turn to a loose platoon arrangement between the left-handed hitting Phillips and the righty-swinging Ramírez in right field with Lowe playing center, particularly if they anticipate Kiermaier’s absence being on the shorter side. Former Dodger Luke Raley is on the 40-man roster and hitting well in Durham, and he could be recalled to add some offense-first bench depth. It seems likely the club will at least poke around the market for potential external additions, though, considering the amount of uncertainty with each of Lowe, Phillips, Ramírez and Raley.
It has been a rough stretch for the Rays, who’ve been without their primary middle infield of Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco and their #1 backstop Mike Zunino for weeks. The losses of Margot and Kiermaier will leave the club without five of their regular position players, and it’s little surprise the team has sputtered of late. Tampa Bay has dropped six of their past seven games to fall to 36-31. They now sit a half-game back of the Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
The rough injury news wasn’t limited to what happened tonight, as Cash also provided a discouraging update on reliever Nick Anderson pregame. The right-hander has been on the IL all season after undergoing a UCL brace procedure last October. His initial recovery timeline suggested a possible return around the All-Star Break, but Cash said he’s still feeling elbow discomfort and will go for further evaluation tomorrow (Topkin link). More will obviously be known in the coming days, but it seems unlikely the 31-year-old will be back on a major league mound in the near future.
Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz
This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)
125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527
Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.
Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.
Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)
171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368
Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.
George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)
32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9
On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.
The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.
Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)
150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404
Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.
Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.
Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)
13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9
Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.
Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.
Five More
MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.
Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.
Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.
Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.
Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.
Rays Option Josh Lowe, Designate Robert Dugger
The Rays have optioned rookie outfielder Josh Lowe to Triple-A Durham and designated right-hander Robert Dugger for assignment, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The moves reduce the Rays’ active roster count from 28 to 26.
Lowe, one of the sport’s top prospects, broke camp with the big league club after Tampa Bay’s late-spring trade of Austin Meadows to Detroit. The lefty-hitting outfielder has gotten off to a slow start, however, hitting .188/.257/.344 with one home run over 71 plate appearances. Lowe’s 38% strikeout percentage and 67.9% contact rate are both far worse than this year’s respective league averages (22.9% and 75.8%). Lowe also had an elevated 26.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year, but he more than offset that with 22 homers, 26 stolen bases and a robust 13% walk percentage.
There’s still plenty of time for the 24-year-old to put things together well enough and allow his combination of power, athleticism, and plate discipline to overcome swing-and-miss issues. Yet for the time being, the Rays will get him more run against minor league pitching to try to work through those contact concerns. Tampa Bay will proceed with an outfield of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramírez and Brett Phillips. Of that group, only Arozarena could be optioned, making Lowe the odd man out as rosters shrunk if the Rays didn’t want to risk losing Ramírez or Phillips on waivers.
Between Lowe’s early struggles and the Rays’ outfield depth, there’s a case to be made for his option strictly from a baseball perspective. Depending upon how long he’s in the minor leagues, though, the assignment could have an effect on his window of team control.
Lowe entered this season with 26 days of MLB service, MLBTR has learned. Players are credited with a full service year upon reaching 172 days on an active roster. That means he needs to spend at least 146 days in the majors this season to end the 2022 campaign with over one year of service. Lowe spent around 25 days on the roster before being optioned, leaving him approximately 121 days from the one-year threshold. There’s still time to reach that mark, but if the optional assignment lingers into June, Lowe’s path to free agency after the 2027 season could come into question.
Dugger was just added to the big league club yesterday. He worked 5 1/3 innings of three-run ball in mop-up relief during the team’s loss to the Twins. That seemed as if it’d make him a quick DFA candidate, considering his 87 pitches took him out of commission for a few days. Dugger couldn’t be optioned, so the only way to take him off the active roster was via DFA.
Tampa Bay signed Dugger to a minor league contract in Spring Training. The 26-year-old has made five appearances and worked 16 frames with Durham, posting a 3.94 ERA with 13 strikeouts and seven walks. By calling him up yesterday, the Rays assume the risk of losing him from the organization. They’ll presumably place him on waivers in the coming days, and Dugger would have the right to refuse a new minor league assignment if he passes through unclaimed by virtue of having previously been outrighted in his career.