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Latest On Cubs, Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs and center fielder Cody Bellinger came together on a one-year deal last offseason after Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers that November. The deal went exceptionally well for both sides as Bellinger bounced back to his previous, All Star-caliber form with a .307/.356/.525 slash line in 130 games last year before returning to the open market earlier this winter. Since, then, Bellinger’s market has been a surprisingly quiet one. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on the 28-year-old’s free agency today, suggesting that it’s a “widespread belief” in the industry that Bellinger will return to the north side when all is said and done this winter.

Even so, Feinsand makes clear that no deal is considered close between the two sides. While Bellinger is known to be seeking north of $200MM in free agency this winter, Feinsand indicates that Chicago brass is “showing restraint” in their bids for Bellinger’s services given the lack of aggressive suitors pursuing the offseason’s top free agent outfielder. While the report suggests the Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Mets, and Mariners could all be possible suitors for the slugger’s services, Feinsand makes clear that those teams are likely only interested in the event that Bellinger’s price tag drops considerably below his current asking price.

It’s easy to see the fit for Bellinger in Chicago. While the club added infielder Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers this winter, giving the 26-year-old a likely inside track for the club’s wide-open first base job, the club still suffers from a relative lack of left-handed power and the return of Bellinger could help to fill the vacuum. What’s more, his 134 wRC+ last year led the team as they fell just a game short of returning to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, and his departure would leave a hole in the middle of the club’s order unless he was replaced with another quality bat.

That being said, if Bellinger were to patrol center field on a regular basis that would seemingly block top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who made his major league debut last September with a profile highlighted by his defensive wizardry in center. While Crow-Armstrong may benefit from more development time at the Triple-A level (where he’s logged just 34 career appearances) after he went hitless in his first 19 trips to the plate in the majors last fall, the presence of Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on long-term deals in the outfield corners could complicate the Cubs’ long-term outlook in the outfield if Bellinger does return.

More notes from the north side of Chicago…

  • As relayed by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks recently noted that, contrary to rumors that percolated this past autumn, the sides did not discuss a potential multi-year deal before the Cubs picked up his club option back in November. Hendricks added that the sides similarly haven’t made any sort of progress on a hypothetical contract extension in the months since. The 34-year-old has spent his entire major league career with the Cubs and rebounded from a pair of injury-marred seasons to post a solid 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 24 starts for the club last year. The longest-tenured player remaining on the big league roster, Hendricks figures to reach free agency for the first time in his career next winter if the sides don’t reach an agreement before then. In the event Hendricks does depart after the 2024 campaign, it could create openings in the club’s rotation for a number of young pitchers including Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and top pitching prospect Cade Horton.
  • While the Cubs have typically avoided committing to free agent relievers on multi-year deals in recent years, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated that the club may be willing to go out of its comfort zone in order to bolster the bullpen this winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Hoyer noted that the Cubs have made “some” multiyear offers to bullpen arms in free agency this offseason before going on to emphasize that bolstering the club’s relief corps is a focus for the team headed into 2024. With Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson having recently come off the market, the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson and Hector Neris represent the best remaining bullpen options in free agency.

Cubs Exercise Club Options On Kyle Hendricks, Yan Gomes

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The Cubs have exercised their $16.5MM club option on the services of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Hendricks, the club’s longest-tenured player, is now set to return in 2024 for his 11th season with the major league team and his 13th season as a member of the Cubs organization as a whole. Rogers also reports that the club has picked up their $6MM club option on veteran catcher Yan Gomes, who will return for his third season in Chicago.

Chicago’s decision to retain Hendricks is hardly a surprise, given comments earlier this fall from both president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and club chairman Tom Ricketts that indicated Hendricks would return to the Cubs in 2024. The decision was likely made even simpler by veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman’s decision to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. By keeping Hendricks in the fold, the Cubs have a proven veteran starter to pair with Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon in the club’s rotation next season with youngsters like Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and perhaps even top pitching prospect Cade Horton all also in the mix for starts next season.

Of course, the most important factor in Hendricks’s option being picked up was the veteran righty’s strong bounceback campaign in 2023. The soft-tossing righty was among the most effective starters in all of baseball for the first seven seasons of his career with a sterling 3.12 ERA and 3.53 FIP across 175 games. Among the 68 pitchers who threw at least 700 total innings between 2014 and 2020, Hendricks’s ERA ranks 7th. Unfortunately, Hendricks’s performance took a turn for the worse over the next two seasons; he posted a 4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP across 48 starts those two seasons before being shut down last summer due to a shoulder capsule injury.

Rehabbing from that shoulder injury left Hendricks unavailable to open the 2023 campaign, but he looked rejuvenated upon his return in late May. In 24 starts for the Cubs this season, Hendricks was able to provide a steady, veteran presence in the middle of the club’s rotation with a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. Though Hendricks struck out just 16.1% of batters faced- a low mark even by his soft-tossing standards- he made up for it by walking a microscopic 4.7% of batters faced while generating groundballs at a 46.3% clip. Altogether, Hendricks’s performance and the rising prices of pitching on the free agent market in recent years seems to have made picking up the 2024 option on his services a fairly easy decision for the Cubs.

As for Gomes, the 36-year-old veteran rebounded in a big way from a down year offensively in 2022. After slashing just .235/.260/.365 in 293 trips to the plate while serving as the club’s primary backup to Willson Contreras behind the plate last year, Gomes stepped into the role of Chicago’s primary catcher after Contreras departed for the Cardinals in free agency. Gomes took to the role quite well, slashing a respectable .267/.315/.408 in 419 trips to the plate, good for a 95 wRC+ that ranked 26th among the 69 catchers who had at least 100 trips to the plate in the majors this year.

In addition to his solid bat for the position, Gomes has generally been well-regarded as a catcher defensively throughout his career. Though his framing marks slipped somewhat in 2023 from where they had been in previous years, Gomes ranked in the 81st percentile for Blocks Above Average behind the plate and the 66th percentile for CS Above Average in 2023. Given his solid performance both at and behind the plate in 2023, it’s hardly a surprise that the Cubs would retain Gomes for a third season behind the plate, though it’s possible he’ll end up in more of a timeshare with youngster Miguel Amaya in 2024 after Amaya showed flashes of being a potential regular behind the plate in 53 games in the majors this year.

Cubs, Kyle Hendricks Have Reportedly Discussed Extension

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One of the Cubs’ first decisions of the upcoming offseason is whether to exercise an option on the team’s longest-tenured player. Chicago holds a $16MM option on Kyle Hendricks that comes with a $1.5MM buyout.

At the very least, the team is likely to retain the right-hander on that net $14.5MM decision. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the front office and Hendricks’ representatives at Wasserman are discussing a potential multi-year pact to keep him in Chicago beyond next season. It isn’t clear how likely they are to come to an agreement.

That the Cubs are open to retaining Hendricks into 2025 isn’t especially surprising. He put together a strong ’23 campaign, turning in a 3.74 ERA through 137 innings. It was a nice return to form after he’d allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both 2021 and ’22. The sinkerballer kept the ball on the ground at a 46.3% clip that was his highest rate since 2020. Hendricks also cut his walk rate a couple percentage points relative to the previous two seasons while inducing more soft contact.

It’s not a return to peak, when he was routinely logging 30+ starts with an ERA hovering around 3.00. He halted what looked like a possible decline, though, perhaps in part due to improved health. Hendricks had pitched through shoulder discomfort for part of the 2022 season. He was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear and shut down that August. Hendricks never required surgery but was forced out of game action until late May.

Upon his return, he stayed healthy and took the ball every fifth day. The steady mid-rotation production was welcome for a team that lost Marcus Stroman to the injured list around the trade deadline and received middling seasons from Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Aside from Cy Young candidate Justin Steele, Hendricks was arguably the team’s best starter.

The Dartmouth product turns 34 in December. An extension going into effect beyond next season would therefore begin with his age-35 campaign. That’s the age at which the Cardinals’ spring extension for Miles Mikolas takes effect. St. Louis guaranteed Mikolas $40MM over two seasons one year in advance.

Hendricks and Mikolas are broadly similar pitchers. They’re innings-eating righties whose profiles are built on elite control. As with Hendricks, Mikolas had dealt with a serious injury before posting a rebound year — in his case, soreness in a surgically repaired flexor tendon in his forearm. While Mikolas throws quite a bit harder, that has never translated to an even average whiff rate. The Cardinals hurler’s $20MM average annual value might be a touch high. Mikolas was coming off a 3.29 ERA through 202 1/3 innings in 2022, a half-run lower than Hendricks’ 2023 figure. It’s nevertheless a potential target for Hendricks’ camp.

José Quintana — a former teammate of both Hendricks and Mikolas — signed a two-year, $26MM free agent deal covering his age 34-35 seasons. Quintana had turned in a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings in his platform season after a dismal 6.43 ERA showing in 2021. Even without the benefit of open market bidding, Hendricks figures to top that sum based on Quintana’s erratic performances from 2019-21.

The Cubs have just over $100MM on the books for the 2025 season. That’s mostly tied up in position players, with only Taillon on a guaranteed deal beyond next year. Steele remains eligible for arbitration through 2027, while Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad are in their pre-arbitration seasons. Stroman has a $21MM player option for next year that looks like a borderline call; he’d be a free agent after 2024 if he opts in. Smyly is virtually certain to exercise an $8.5MM player option for next season that’d also guarantee a $2.5MM buyout on a 2025 mutual provision.

Central Notes: Cubs, Molina, Royals

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The Cubs are facing some uncertainty in their rotation early this offseason, as veteran right-handers Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman both have contracts featuring options for the 2024 campaign. The club holds a $16MM team option on Hendricks that features a $1.5MM buyout, while Stroman can opt out of the final year of his contract with Chicago, leaving $21MM on the table to return to the open market. Though option decisions aren’t due until five days after the World Series concludes, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that both Hendricks and Stroman are “expected” to remain with the club in 2024.

Picking up Hendricks’s club option seems to be something of a no-brainer for the Cubs, given how well he pitched last year. After a shoulder injury wiped out most of the soft-tossing righty’s 2022 season and the beginning of his 2023, Hendricks rebounded to make 24 starts for the Cubs, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. In a market where even bounce back starters can get two-year guarantees in the range of $12.5MM (as the likes of Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, and Ross Stripling did last offseason), a $14.5MM decision for one year of Hendricks is a sensible investment.

Stroman’s option decision, on the other hand, is more complicated. Multi-year offers that would beat Stroman’s $21MM total salary for 2024 will surely be available to the right-hander this offseason if he decides to test the open market. While he appeared to be a good bet to approach or perhaps even beat the yearly salary offered by his option on the open market early in the season, when he was dominating for the Cubs to the tune of a 2.28 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, he figures to be a long-shot to receive a comparable AAV this offseason after battling injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half, with an 8.29 ERA over his final 38 innings of work this year.

If both players do remain in Chicago with their options exercised, that will eat up a combined $37MM in payroll space for the club this offseason. As noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in the Cubs installment of our Offseason Outlook series, Stroman and Hendricks returning to Chicago figures to push the club’s commitments well over $200MM for luxury tax purposes, leaving little room for the Cubs to maneuver this offseason without exceeding the first tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM this offseason.

More from around MLB’s central divisions:

  • The Cardinals were recently reported to have interest in bringing longtime catcher Yadier Molina back into the fold just one season after his retirement, this time as a member of the coaching staff.  Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat provided more details on the situation this morning, indicating that Molina reportedly has interest in acting as the club’s bench coach. As Jones notes, the contract status of current bench coach Joe McEwing is unclear, though he adds that it’s believed the Cardinals at least hold an option on his services for 2024. Jones also notes the difficult situation that Molina’s presence as bench coach could create for manager Oli Marmol; Marmol is entering the final year of his contract with the club next season and would likely face greater pressure in 2024 with a player of Molina’s status within the organization acting as his number two, particularly after Molina got his feet wet in a managerial role as skipper of team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
  • The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that assistant GM for baseball administration Jin Wong is departing the organization. Wong, who per Rosenthal is leaving Kansas City “of his own accord,” had been in the organization for 24 years. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Wong played key roles in contract negotiations for key players in the organization’s recent history, including Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, with much of his role being dealing with Kansas City’s budget and payroll management.

Jed Hoyer On Bellinger, Hendricks, Ross

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer met with reporters on Tuesday (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to discuss his team’s disappointing finish to the 2o23 season and his plans for the upcoming offseason. Topics of interest included the team missing the playoffs, Kyle Hendricks’ and Cody Bellinger’s futures in Chicago, and manager David Ross’ performance in 2023.

While the Cubs finished above .500 for the first time in three years, Hoyer made it clear he didn’t view the season as a success. While most didn’t see the Cubs as serious contenders entering the year, the front office had postseason aspirations from the get-go. Thus, when the Cubs were eliminated after the penultimate game on the schedule, Hoyer was in no mood to celebrate a mere winning season.

However, that doesn’t mean he saw nothing to celebrate in 2023. The executive praised the work David Ross put in this season, extolling the skipper’s willingness to accept criticism and work through disagreements. He left no room for doubt that Ross will return next year. Rather than blaming the manager for what went wrong, Hoyer made sure to give him plenty of credit for all the ways in which the club improved. His comments about the rest of the coaches were less straightforward, and he would only say that further conversations about the coaching staff will take place in the coming days.

Hoyer also had nothing but good things to say about Bellinger and Hendricks, each of whom had bounce-back seasons. Bellinger slashed .307/.356/.525 with 20 stolen bases while splitting his time between first base and center field. He finished with 4.1 FanGraphs WAR in 130 games, finally looking like an All-Star again after two straight seasons of subpar performance. Hoyer said he’d be happy to have the lefty batter back next year but acknowledged he might walk in free agency. If Bellinger does leave, however, the Cubs are committed to replacing his offensive production in the lineup.

As for Hendricks, who pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 24 starts, Hoyer expressed that he’d love to keep the veteran starter in Chicago “for next year and beyond.” That being said, he would not commit to picking up the righty’s $16MM club option for 2024. While $16MM is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for a capable mid-rotation starter, the Cubs might be planning to pay Hendricks his $1.5M buyout instead and then work toward a multi-year deal with a lower annual salary.

Hoyer would not commit to a certain amount of spending over the winter, although he mentioned that there is no hard and fast rule from ownership to stay under the luxury tax threshold. The Cubs were aggressive last winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Trey Mancini, and Bellinger to eight-figure deals. While Hoyer didn’t say anything to suggest he’d spend quite as much this offseason, he did say that he wants to retain the momentum from last winter’s spending spree.

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts On Ross, Hendricks, Payroll

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After losing seasons in both 2021 and 2022, the Cubs finished 83-79 this year, representing some progress.  Unfortunately for Wrigleyville, that record left the team one game behind the Diamondbacks for the last NL wild card slot, as a 5-12 slide in the Cubs’ last 17 games quickly muddied what seemed like a clear path to the playoffs a few weeks ago.

As such, team chairman Tom Ricketts was measured in his praise when speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro) today.  While “there was a lot of excitement and the organizational health is as strong as it’s been in a long, long time,” Ricketts also said “I don’t think that we want to start calling seasons we don’t make the playoffs good seasons.  That’s a consolation prize and we don’t play for consolation prizes.”

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently gave manager David Ross a public vote of confidence, seemingly confirming that Ross would return for 2024 (the final guaranteed year of the skipper’s contract).  The odds of Ross continuing with the team grew even stronger today when Ricketts also credited the manager’s work.

“I think Rossy did a great job.  He creates a great clubhouse culture, the players love playing for him,” Ricketts said.  “He keeps a steady, balanced approach game in and game out, that you need over the course of 162 games.”  Specifically citing the full-season aspect in a year when the Cubs started with a 26-36 record, Ricketts noted that “when the team got down, way below .500 and it looked like the season was over, he didn’t let it go.  He got the guys back and playing hard.  We got to here.  He was a big part of that.”

Another Wrigleyville staple also return in 2024, as Ricketts said “at this point I would see [Kyle Hendricks] coming back,” though the chairman said Hoyer would ultimately be making the decision.  Chicago holds a $16MM club option ($1.5MM buyout) on Hendricks for next season, and it seemed like Hendricks was on the decline after down years in both 2021 and 2022.  However, the veteran righty bounced back nicely from an injury-shortened 2022 to post a 3.74 ERA over 137 innings this year, increasingly his chances of getting that option exercised.  Even if Marcus Stroman doesn’t opt out of the final year of his contract, retaining Hendricks might still make sense to bolster the rotation depth.

The rest of Chicago’s payroll picture will naturally factor into the $14.5MM decision on Hendricks.  Ricketts again stated that Hoyer is calling the shots on player personnel, but with an Opening Day payroll of roughly $184.2MM last March, Ricketts said “I think we’ll stay at those levels” for 2024, and “we’ll see where that shakes out” in terms of whether or not the Cubs would be willing to boost spending closing to the $237MM luxury tax line.

The Cubs’ rebuilding efforts of the previous two seasons helped add a lot of younger talent into the system, which Ricketts cited as another (and perhaps wiser) method of improving the Major League roster.  “We’ve got a lot of good young players and hopefully some will be ready to go next year so we can bring homegrown talent to supplement the guys we have out there,” Ricketts said.

“That’s the ultimate way you maintain consistency and try to stay in the playoff hunt for years to come…The key to consistency is to not build a one-year super team, but to try to get to the playoffs as often as possible.  You do that by finding guys that you like, giving them extensions, solidifying your core and then trying to supplement them with guys from your system and the occasional free agent.  That’s going to be our strategy going forward.”

It isn’t as if Ricketts and Hoyer have shied away from larger investments, such as signing Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, or Jameson Taillon, or in locking up Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ through 2026 on contract extensions.  However, should Stroman opt out and Cody Bellinger leave in free agency, that is automatically two big holes that need to be addressed, in addition to the Cubs’ other roster needs.

At the very least, Ricketts’ comment seemingly indicates that the Cubs will make a measured effort at best to re-sign Bellinger, who figures to land one of the winter’s biggest contracts.  It could be that the front office and ownership are willing to spend a bit bigger now that the Cubs have gotten over the .500 hump and back into playoff contention, though it may take a particular target (i.e. Swanson last winter) to really move the organization to make a splash.

Kyle Hendricks’s Return To Form

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When thinking about bounceback seasons on the 2023 Chicago Cubs, you’d be forgiven for seeing the excellent season Cody Bellinger is putting together giving it your full attention. After all, the former NL MVP was one of the worst regulars in baseball over the past two seasons and has bounced back to not only be an above-average regular but the best hitter set to hit the free agent market this side of Shohei Ohtani. If you look a little further down the club’s WAR leaderboard, however, you’ll find there’s another player on the team who received award voting recognition early in his career for whom things seemingly started to come apart at the seams over the past two seasons, only for him to rebound in a big way in 2023 with a unexpectedly strong season. That player is right-handed veteran Kyle Hendricks.

The lone remaining player of Chicago’s 2016 World Series core, Hendricks was once one of the best starters in the majors in terms of sheer run prevention. Between the years of 2016 and 2020, only five pitchers with at least 500 innings of work posted a lower ERA than Hendricks: Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber. Unlike the five multi-time Cy Young winners ahead of him, Hendricks has never been looked at as on the shortlist of the best pitchers in the league. While Hendricks finished third in Cy Young award voting in 2016 behind Scherzer and teammate Jon Lester, he’s only received votes one other time in his career and has never made an All Star game.

The main culprit for that is his lack of strikeouts. Even during his 2016-20 peak he ranked among the league’s bottom 20 hurlers in terms of strikeout rate, and his fastball hasn’t average 90 mph since his sophomore season as a big league regular back in 2016. Hendricks made up for that during his peak years with pinpoint control (5.3% walk rate), a strong 46.6% groundball rate, and a penchant for suppressing the long ball (11.5% HR/FB). Still, those positive traits couldn’t completely outweigh his lack of strikeouts and left him with a 3.60 FIP that, while strong, was more in the realm of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell than Kershaw and deGrom.

Unfortunately for Hendricks, his dominance in terms of run prevention wouldn’t last. The 2021 and 2022 seasons proved to be brutal ones for Hendricks, as he not only was a below average starting pitcher for the first time in his career but dealt with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder during 2022 that left him shut down partway through the year. Across his 265 1/3 innings of work those two seasons, the results were nothing short of ugly: his 4.78 ERA with a 4.87 FIP in that time were 16% and 18% worse than the league average, respectively. Meanwhile, his peripheral numbers declined across the board his strikeout rate dipped from the 21.1% of his peak years to just 17.3%, his walk rate climbed to 6%, his groundball rate dropped to 41%, and he began to allow home runs on 14.8% of his fly balls.

Heading into the 2023 season, it was fair to wonder if the tightrope act of Hendricks’s early career, where he managed to get elite results despite a fastball that would’ve been slower than average 20 years ago thanks to excellent command and quality of contact numbers, was over. After all, he was pairing a bottom ten strikeout rate in the majors with a 8.8% barrel rate that was lower than only 26 other players with at least 200 innings of work between those years, figures that put him in the same conversation as Zach Plesac and Dallas Keuchel. Chicago’s $14.5MM decision on Hendricks’s $16MM club option for 2024 figured to be declined without as much as a second thought.

Ever since making his season debut in May, however, Hendricks appears to have climbed right back up on the tightrope. The now 33-year-old righty has posted a 3.66 ERA that’s 24% better than league average with a 3.80 FIP across 23 starts (132 2/3 innings of work) this season. Those top level numbers put him in the same conversation as quality mid-rotation arms like Charlie Morton, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez. A look at his peripheral numbers mostly backs up the veteran’s return to form, as well: his 4.3% walk rate this season is the best of his career in a 162-game season, and his 45.2% groundball rate is a top-25 figure in the majors that appears in the same conversation as players like Ohtani and Corbin Burnes.

That said, there are still some potential red flags. Most obviously, Hendricks is striking out less batters than ever before this year, even by his own standards. His strikeout rate is ninth-worst among pitchers with at least 130 innings this year, and no other pitcher in the bottom ten is above average by both ERA- and FIP-. Meanwhile, his 8.7% HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career, indicating that some regression should be expected in that regard. His barrel rate has dropped from the 8.8% figure he posted the last two years, which is a positive sign, but 6.4% figure is still a far cry from the 4.3% he posted in his prime.

Between Hendricks’s quality mid-rotation production in 2023, his track record as something of a unicorn in the modern game, and these potential red flags when digging into his profile, that aforementioned $14.5MM decision the Cubs face on his 2024 option figures to be one of the more interesting decisions a club will be faced with this offseason. Should his option be declined, the veteran righty figures to add another intriguing arm to what’s already an unusually deep free agent class when it comes to starting pitching. Regardless of what the future holds for Hendricks, though, his rebound has been one of the biggest surprises for a Cubs team that has surpassed expectations across the board this season.

Cubs Still Evaluating Deadline Trajectory

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The Cubs beat their crosstown rivals this evening, pulling themselves within two games of .500 in the process. The North Siders now sit at 49-51, six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and 4 1/2 back of the three teams (Arizona, San Francisco and Philadelphia) tied for the last couple Wild Card spots.

With the club on the fringe of contention, the front office continues to evaluate whether it’s more prudent to add for a playoff push or move short-term veterans for future value. Before tonight’s win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote that the Cubs had yet to commit to a direction with the deadline a week off.

If Chicago were to entertain offers, they’d be able to market two of the top players available. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, no impending free agent hitter with a chance to move would be more impactful than Cody Bellinger. While he hasn’t quite recaptured his MVP heights, Bellinger has bounced most of the way back from two middling seasons to finish his Dodgers’ tenure. He’s hitting .314/.363/.540 over 292 trips to the plate and typically rates as an above-average to plus defensive center fielder.

Marcus Stroman would be one of the top pitchers on the market. The 32-year-old has struggled in July but still carries an excellent 3.09 ERA over 122 1/3 innings. He’s picking up ground-balls at a 57.8% clip, continuing his career track record of stifling opponents’ power output.

Both players are likely headed for free agency. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option. Barring injury, Stroman will do the same with a $21MM player option. Stroman has angled for a contract extension, but the Cubs are reportedly holding off on such talks as they consider trade options. Bellinger will be one of the top hitters in a free agent class light on impact bats. With top center field prospects like Kevin Alcántara and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the farm system and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on multi-year contracts, there’s an argument for the Cubs to prioritize players other than Bellinger past this season.

It has generally been assumed the Cubs would either trade both Bellinger and Stroman or neither player (depending on whether they decide to sell). However, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this evening that Chicago could also consider dealing Stroman while hanging on to Bellinger. That’s a result of the players’ respective qualifying offer status.

Stroman already received and accepted a qualifying offer in his career. Players can be tagged with a QO a maximum of one time. Bellinger has never received the offer. If the Cubs hold both through season’s end, they’d only be able to tender the QO to Bellinger. They’d get a draft choice if Bellinger signed elsewhere but no compensation if Stroman departed.

Beyond that duo, the Cubs have a handful of potential trade candidates. Kyle Hendricks is controllable for another season on a $16MM team option and carries a 3.38 ERA over 11 starts. Yan Gomes is a solid veteran catcher; his contract contains a $6MM club option for 2024. Michael Fulmer is an affordable rental reliever who has pitched well over the past six weeks.

Whether any of those players move could well be determined by the on-field results of the next six days. The Cubs wrap their series with the White Sox tomorrow. They’ll go to St. Louis for a four-game set through the weekend and play one game against the Reds (one of the teams they’re trying to track down) before the deadline.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL Central

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

This series kicked off with the NL West last night. Today, we move to the Central.

Chicago Cubs

Hendricks has only made two starts this season. The sinkerballer was diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last August. That required a lengthy rehab process that lingered into this month. The former ERA champion hadn’t been nearly as effective in the two years leading up to the shoulder issues as he was over his first seven seasons. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a 4.75 ERA over 274 2/3 innings. Between that back-of-the-rotation production and the injury, the Cubs seem likely to reallocate the $14.5MM difference between the option price and the buyout.

Gomes signed a two-year guarantee with Chicago going into the 2022 campaign. Initially tabbed to pair with Willson Contreras, he’s gotten the majority of the playing time alongside Tucker Barnhart this season. Gomes struggled to a .235/.260/.365 line in 86 games during his first season on the North Side. He’s playing better this season, hitting six home runs with a .273/.297/.445 batting line over his first 118 trips to the plate. The $5MM decision is a reasonable price for a veteran backstop hitting at that level, even if Gomes is more of a timeshare player than a true regular at this stage of his career.

Boxberger signed with Chicago after being bought out by the Brewers. The righty has had a tough first couple months. He allowed nine runs with a 13:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings. He hit the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain a couple weeks ago. Boxberger is throwing again but figures to miss a decent chunk of action. This is trending towards a Cubs’ buyout.

Cincinnati Reds

Votto is a franchise icon. He’s played his entire 17-season career in Cincinnati and it’s hard to envision him in another uniform. If he’s to stick with the Reds beyond this year, though, it’d almost certainly be at a cheaper price point than the option value. Votto had a below-average .205/.319/.370 batting line last season and hasn’t played this year as he works back from last August’s rotator cuff surgery.

  • Wil Myers: $12MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

Myers’ first season as a Red hasn’t gone as planned. The offseason signee has started his Cincinnati career with a .189/.257/.283 batting line with three home runs over 141 plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll play well enough this summer the Reds can recoup something in a trade around the deadline. Cincinnati isn’t going to exercise their end of this option short of a massive turnaround, though.

Casali is part of a three-catcher group in Cincinnati. The veteran backstop has only a .157/.259/.157 line in 60 trips to the plate during his second stint as a Red. The club looks likely to decline their end of the option for the journeyman backstop.

Milwaukee Brewers

Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June. The Brewers signed him to a big league deal with an eye towards the second half and potentially the ’24 campaign. He’s on the 60-day injured list. This one’s still to be determined.

Pittsburgh Pirates

García landed in Pittsburgh after being non-tendered by the Giants last winter. His Bucs’ tenure hasn’t gotten off the ground. He suffered a biceps injury in Spring Training, was shut down from throwing entirely for more than a month, and has spent the year on the 60-day injured list. There’s no public clarity on his status.

St. Louis Cardinals

Six weeks ago, this looked like a no-brainer for the Cardinals to buy out. DeJong’s offensive production had absolutely nosedived since 2020. He hit only .196/.280/.351 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-22. He struggled so badly last season the Cards optioned him to Triple-A for a spell.

The Cards continued to resist calls to move on from DeJong entirely, however. The front office has held out hope he could recapture the productive offensive form he showed through his first few seasons. They’ve been rewarded for their patience to this point in 2023. DeJong has had a surprising resurgence, popping eight home runs in 31 games. His bat has faded a bit in May after a scorching April, but the overall .234/.311/.495 line is 21 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong’s defense has always been above-average, and the offensive bounceback has gotten him back in the starting lineup at shortstop.

DeJong will need to maintain this form over an extended stretch before the Cards get to a point where it’s worthwhile to trigger the option. Tommy Edman and top prospect Masyn Winn are in the organization as potential replacements. Yet DeJong is performing better than any of the impending free agents in a weak shortstop class. That there’s a chance the front office might have to think about this one is a testament to his strong start.

Cubs Reinstate Kyle Hendricks, Option Nick Madrigal

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May 25: The Cubs have announced to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that Hendricks has been officially reinstated with Nick Madrigal optioned in a corresponding move.

May 24: The Cubs are going to be reinstate right-hander Kyle Hendricks from the injured list, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay the information from manager David Ross. Hendricks will start Thursday’s game against the Mets.

Hendricks, 33, will be making his first major league appearance in almost a year. He last climbed the hill on July 5 of last year, after which he was placed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. Initial MRIs didn’t reveal any structural damage but he was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear. The tear was relatively small and didn’t require surgery, but he has nonetheless required a lengthy period of time to get back to full health.

The righty had spent many years as a reliable cog in the Cubs’ rotation prior to falling off a bit in recent seasons. From 2014 to 2020, he logged over a thousand innings with a 3.12 ERA. His 20.8% strikeout rate in that time was on the modest side but he showed excellent control with a 5.3% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.5% clip. That also included several strong postseason starts, such as 2016 when he took the ball five times with a 1.42 ERA and helped the Cubs win the World Series for the first time in over a century. He’s now the only Cubs player from that curse-breaking club that’s still on the roster.

In 2021 and 2022, however, he posted a combined 4.78 ERA with all of his rate stats worsening by a bit. He stuck out 17.3% of batters faced while walking 6% and getting grounders on 41% of balls in play. Hendricks has been rehabbing in recent weeks, making five starts with a 5.75 ERA in that time. However, most of that damage came in the first two outings, as he had a 1.69 ERA in the final three. Only time will tell what sort of results he can post at the major league level after the long injury layoff.

The Cubs’ starters have a collective 3.93 ERA this year, which places them 10th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly are all posting good results, though Jameson Taillon has an 8.10 ERA through seven starts. There’s surely a lot of bad luck in there given his .369 batting average on balls in play and 50% strand rate, leading to a nicer 4.93 FIP and 4.52 SIERA. He’ll undoubtedly have a long leash to figure things out since he just signed a four-year, $68MM deal this winter. Hendricks figures to take the rotation spot of Hayden Wesneski, who was recently optioned after posting a 5.03 ERA through eight starts.

The performance of Hendricks in the remainder of this season will impact the club on the field but also from a business perspective. He and the club signed a four-year $55.5MM extension going into 2019, with 2023 being the final guaranteed season. He’s making $14MM this season and the club has a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.

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