Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.
Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.
Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.
With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.
Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.
It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles Notes: Machado, Wieters, Rasmus, Free Agents
In his latest column, ESPN’s Buster Olney argues that the Orioles need to begin preparing for the possibility of trading superstar third baseman Manny Machado (Insider subscription required and highly recommended). Olney is careful to report that sources in the organization tell him no such talks have taken place, but he also lays out a compelling argument for dealing Machado this coming summer if the O’s aren’t in contention. Machado’s $11.2MM arbitration projection will take his career earnings north of $20MM, so he can afford to wait for free agency two years from now, financially speaking. And the Orioles have what is generally regarded as one of the game’s weaker farm systems, so moving Machado and other top-tier MLB assets (i.e. Zach Britton, Adam Jones) could net GM Dan Duquette the type of prospect bounty that would make for an accelerated rebuilding process.
O’s fans undoubtedly would prefer to see Machado extended, but I agree with Olney’s assessment that the window for that has likely closed. At this juncture, it’s hard to envision Machado signing anything less than a record-setting contract. He’s a better all-around player than Giancarlo Stanton, whose 13-year, $325MM contract is the current benchmark. Hitting the open market at age 26, Machado should shatter Stanton’s record contract barring some form of devastating injury. Of course, if Baltimore is in contention in 2017, then it’s all a moot point for a bit longer, as there’s no way the Orioles would (nor should they) consider dealing Machado and others if a potential postseason berth is in the cards.
A few more notes on the Orioles…
- Agent Scott Boras reached out to Orioles owner Peter Angelos one last time to try to get the O’s back into the Matt Wieters bidding before Baltimore signed Welington Castillo, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles were simply far more comfortable committing a modest $6MM salary in 2017 (and possibly $7MM in 2018) to Castillo than they were with considering the price levels that Boras is seeking for Wieters. Kubatko notes that Wieters’ situation may not be resolved before the calendar flips to 2017.
- Within that same piece, Kubatko reports that Colby Rasmus‘ agents have reached out to the Orioles, but the team considers his current asking price to be too high. If the O’s do end up with Rasmus, a deal would have to be reached closer to Spring Training once his asking price drops a bit further. Rasmus struggled to a .206/.286/.355 batting line last year but played through myriad physical issues over the course of the season. Rasmus had a cyst surgically removed from his ear this past summer — an issue that very likely could’ve impacted his balance and all-around skill set — and underwent surgeries to repair his hip and a sports hernia following the 2016 season. A healthier Rasmus could be a nice rebound candidate, though the O’s likely aren’t alone in expressing some trepidation about committing a significant guarantee to a player coming off Rasmus’ recent injuries.
- Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that the O’s are still looking for a defensive upgrade in the corner outfield and depth in the bullpen, but he casts some doubt on the team’s ability to squeeze in another acquisition prior to the holidays. The team’s talks with Mark Trumbo have been lagging a bit, and while the O’s haven’t pivoted to similar players like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Carter yet, Encina adds that they’ll eventually go that route if talks with Trumbo’s camp don’t intensify.
Dan Duquette On Trumbo, Machado, Britton
The Orioles have “made a couple offers to” free agent slugger Mark Trumbo, Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told reporters (including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), though despite ongoing talks, an agreement has yet to be reached. “We’ve had several conversations with Mark Trumbo, but we haven’t been able to cinch a deal with him….We’ve had a dialogue going with them for several weeks,” Duquette said.
Though there was mutual interest in a continued relationship between the two sides prior to the end of the season, there hasn’t been much news about Trumbo and Orioles until now. Duquette said during the GM Meetings that the club was looking to prioritize defense and add a left-handed hitting outfielder, neither of which describe what Trumbo brings to the table. Duquette cited outfield defense again today, though Trumbo could also fill Baltimore’s hole at designated hitter. As I noted in my free agent profile of Trumbo, his value could greatly improve if a team uses him in a first base/DH role rather than as a corner outfielder.
Right field is the specific need for the O’s, as Duquette said Hyun Soo Kim and Joey Rickard could handle left field in a platoon and the team hasn’t put much thought into moving Chris Davis from first base into right. As for other internal options, Duquette also cited youngster Trey Mancini as having the hitting potential to possibly handle regular DH duty.
Trumbo has received some interest from the Rockies this winter, though Colorado would have to give up a hefty draft pick price (the 11th overall selection in next year’s draft) to sign Trumbo, who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer. That same QO status is a consideration for the O’s as well as they explore re-signing Trumbo, Duquette noted, as is the changing nature of the qualifying offer system in future years under the new collective bargaining agreement.
Aside from Trumbo, Duquette also discussed such topics as the team’s needs in right field, catcher (either as a starter or platoon partner with Caleb Joseph) and the potential use of the upcoming Rule 5 draft to procure more young talent.
Duquette also denied a rumor about an extension between Manny Machado and the Orioles, saying that the two sides hadn’t had any talks. Most teams wait until after the bulk of the offseason work is complete before entering into extension negotiations, so we might not hear about anything with Machado until Spring Training at the earliest. The superstar third baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn $11.2MM in arbitration next season, and the O’s control Machado through the 2018 campaign. With Machado hitting the open market at age 26, the sky is the limit for the size of a potential extension — Baltimore would likely require something north of a $250MM guarantee.
In a radio appearance with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), the executive VP also commented on the attention being drawn by closer Zach Britton. “There’s a lot of interest in Zach Britton. Personally, I like Zach Britton on our club, but there are teams interested,” Duquette said. Britton is also due for a hefty arbitration payday ($11.4MM) in the wake of his excellent 2016 season, and there has been speculation that the O’s could sell high on Britton now given the large demand for relief pitching this offseason. One would think it would take a pretty significant offer to pry Britton out of Baltimore, as Duquette has said both here and in prior interviews that he wants to keep the closer.
Dan Duquette On Machado, Tillman, Schoop, Britton Extension Talks
In the Orioles’ season-ending press conference with media (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) earlier this week, baseball operations executive VP Dan Duquette commented on the possibility of the club exploring extensions with several players, saying “I’m sure we’ll have time to take a look at that” during the offseason.
“All of those players have done a great job for us,” Duquette said, referring to Manny Machado, Chris Tillman and Jonathan Schoop. “We have explored extensions in the past, in fact a couple times each, with Tillman and Machado. We haven’t approached Jonathan Schoop on a long-term basis yet, but I’m sure we’ll have time to do that when it’s appropriate.”
As Duquette noted, this isn’t the first time the O’s have looked into extending its superstar third baseman or its staff ace. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported in June that Machado and the Orioles had come close to a seven-year extension at some point in recent years, while the club negotiated with Tillman about a long-term deal prior to the 2015 season.
A Machado extension, of course, would almost certainly be one of the largest deals in baseball history. Machado has generated more fWAR than all but three other players in baseball over the last two seasons, thanks to his combination of both elite third base defense and outstanding hitting. At just 24 years of age, Machado will only be 26 when he hits free agency after the 2018 season, so the Orioles would need to pay well in excess of $200MM in order to lock up the young star into his free agent seasons. Extending Machado would break new financial ground for the O’s, though Baltimore has shown it is willing to spend big to extend or retain key position players like Adam Jones or Chris Davis.
Tillman is the most immediate concern since he can hit the open market after the 2017 season, though his price tag is less clear. He rebounded from a disappointing 2015 season to post a 3.77 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate and 7.3 K/9 over 172 innings this year, though as per advanced metrics, there actually wasn’t much of a gap between the righty’s performance over the last two years. Tillman has produced between 1.8 and 2.4 fWAR in each of the last four seasons and averaged 190 innings per year in that span, though the Orioles are notoriously cautious (some could say over-cautious) when it comes to committing to pitchers in long-term deals. It could be that the Orioles would be more comfortable spending money on a pitcher they’re already quite familiar with, especially given that the club is already in such need of rotation help.
Schoop will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, so the Orioles aren’t necessarily in any rush to extend the second baseman. Schoop, who turns 25 next week, hit a career-high 25 homers but was a below-average (97 wRC+) offensive performer overall thanks to a .267/.298/.454 slash line over 647 plate appearances. Between Schoop’s high strikeout totals and lack of OBP, there could still be some question if he is indeed a long-term piece for the Orioles, though obviously there’s still room for growth for such a young player.
Duquette was also asked about the possibility of extending star closer Zach Britton, and Duquette merely responded that Britton is still two years away from free agency. Extending Britton now would be the definition of a buy-high move given that he is coming off one of the best seasons from any closer in baseball history, though an extension would also give Baltimore some cost certainty over Britton’s rising price tag. He is due a major raise from his 2016 salary of $6.75MM, and he still has two arb years left thanks to his Super Two designation. Committing huge dollars to any reliever can be a roll of the dice, so the Orioles could be willing to simply go year-to-year with Britton.
MLB Announces Suspensions For Yordano Ventura, Manny Machado
JUNE 18, 6:36pm: Machado will begin serving a four-game suspension Sunday, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com was among those to report (via Twitter). That will end Machado’s consecutive games played streak at 229. While the superstar infielder isn’t pleased that he’ll sit out four games and Ventura will miss just one start, he didn’t like his chances with an appeal, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Orioles manager Buck Showalter agrees with Machado’s stance, telling reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com), “A good player doing good things and we won’t have him for four days because somebody hit him with a pitch.”
4pm: MLB has reduced Ventura’s suspension to eight games and he has dropped his appeal, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets.
JUNE 9: Major League Baseball has announced suspensions of Royals starter Yordano Ventura and Orioles infielder Manny Machado. The former gets a nine-game ban, meaning he’ll likely miss only a single outing, while the latter will sit for four contests.
Both players appear set to appeal their punishments stemming from a recent brawl. The melee was sparked when Ventura hit Machado with a pitch, prompting the latter to charge the mound. Both players swung at each other and went to the ground as both dugouts emptied.
The suspensions don’t appear to be major causes for concern for either club, though neither is in great position to deal with a loss at their respective positions. Baltimore is already without shortstop J.J. Hardy, with Machado sliding over from third to cover for him. And the Royals have had plenty of struggles in its starting staff.
This is the second significant set of suspensions relating to on-field fisticuffs in recent weeks. Previously, Rougned Odor led a series of other players from the Rangers and Blue Jays by taking an eight-game suspension (later reduced to seven) for slugging Toronto slugger Jose Bautista.
Heyman’s Latest: Harper/Machado, Braves, Shields, Odor
Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Manny Machado of the Orioles are young, controlled superstars who look like highly appealing extension targets. Of course, that also makes them incredibly expensive potential candidates for their respective teams, as Jon Heyman explains at todaysknuckleball.com. According to Heyman, there’s some suggestion that it could take more than $500MM over an unprecedented term to keep Harper from heading to the open market after the 2018 season. “We have not to this point had any substantive negotiations about a long-term deal,” Nats GM Mike Rizzo said with regard to Harper. Rizzo did suggest that the team has serious interest in doing so, however. “They know what our intentions are,” he said. “My intention is always to get him on a long-term deal that will make him a National for life. At a very young age he performed admirably, not only admirably, but the year he had was historic. It’s going to be a unique deal. We have a very unique player.”
As for Machado, he might not be far behind in value if the O’s hope to reach a deal. Intriguingly, the report suggests that Baltimore very nearly agreed to a seven-year contract with its best player at some point in recent years. That would have certainly proved a bargain given Machado’s increasingly outstanding performance, though the terms of the prospective pact are not known. (Neither is it clear what caused negotiations to fall apart.)
Here’s more from Heyman:
- “A few teams” have checked in with the Braves on Nick Markakis, Heyman writes, but his recent skid at the plate hasn’t helped out his trade value much. Kelly Johnson, too, could become available, though Heyman adds that GM John Coppolella said of Julio Teheran that he expects the right-hander “to be on the team a long time.” From my vantage point, Markakis doesn’t have much value at $11MM per season and with apparently evaporated power. Even if the Braves were to pay down half of his remaining salary through the 2018 season, he hasn’t been productive enough to bring in a meaningful prospect return.
- The Orioles talked to the Padres about James Shields in Spring Training but weren’t willing to cover even half of the salary owed to Shields at the time. Shields has two years and $44MM remaining on his contract following the 2016 season (if he doesn’t opt out), and he’s earning $21MM this season as well. Shields has grabbed headlines recently, having been prominently featured in trade rumors over the weekend and then suffering a 10-run meltdown earlier this week, which the team’s executive chairman publicly referred to as “an embarrassment.”
- The Red Sox, too, have considered Shields but are waiting to see how Eduardo Rodriguez performs upon returning from the disabled list (so far, so good). The White Sox, meanwhile, would want the Padres to pay down a significant portion of the $57MM that remains on Shields’ contract (again, barring an opt out). Heyman writes that a source indicated that shortstop prospect Tim Anderson wouldn’t be involved in talks, though that doesn’t strike me as a surprising revelation; even with half of his contract paid down, that would seem like an overpay on Chicago’s behalf. On a somewhat similar vein, Heyman adds that the Padres approached the Tigers about Shields, but Detroit had no interest in parting with any of Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd in a potential deal.
- Shortly after the Rockies acquired Jose Reyes, the Yankees were willing to part with shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and pay half of the $22MM that is owed to Reyes annually through the 2017 season, Heyman hears.
- The jobs of Tigers manager Brad Ausmus and Twins manager Paul Molitor are safe, Heyman writes, though he adds that Detroit GM Al Avila has privately told Ausmus to stop discussing his job security (or lack thereof) with the media, as the situation doesn’t need any extra fuel.
- Greg Holland could take the mound in August, per Heyman, and he may wait until that point before deciding on a team. Both the Royals and Braves have shown interest to this point, he adds.
- The Athletics “may be a favorite” for Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez, writes Heyman, who also notes that incumbent second baseman Jed Lowrie could help a number of clubs on the trade market. The Padres, too, are said to be considering Fernandez, he adds.
- Rougned Odor‘s agent and Rangers GM Jon Daniels recently rekindled extension talks, and Heyman notes that the team heaped praise onto Odor during his appeal hearing during which his suspension for punching Jose Bautista was dropped from eight games to seven games. His suspension has also given Jurickson Profar a chance to play, and Heyman writes that the former top prospect could be a trade candidate now that he’s healthy. Sticking with the Rangers, Heyman adds that the Phillies lobbied hard for Texas to include Nomar Mazara in last year’s Cole Hamels blockbuster, but Daniels refused to give him up.
- The Nationals talked with the D-backs in the offseason about Gio Gonzalez, but Arizona wouldn’t part with Ender Inciarte or David Peralta in the prospective trade. Heyman writes that the Nats spoke to a few teams about Gonzalez, including the Marlins. However, Miami wasn’t keen on surrendering Christian Yelich.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Machado, Teheran, Hill, Pomeranz
Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper might not be the only $400MM free agent if he reaches the open market in 2018, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link), who reports that Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado could also exceed that total. Machado is a more valuable defender at third than Harper is in right, argues Rosenthal, and is just three months older than Harper (both will be 26 in 2018). Machado, who has slashed a videogamelike .323/.397/.634 with 13 home runs in 209 plate appearances this year, has outhit Harper (.243/.423/.537, 12 homers in 201 PAs) and leads all major leaguers in fWAR (3.4).
Here’s more inside info from Rosenthal:
- The Braves will only trade right-hander Julio Teheran if they can get a major league hitter of similar quality and age in return, general manager John Coppolella told Rosenthal. “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran,” Coppolella said. Teheran, 25, is off to a strong start this year (2.57 ERA, 8.43 K/9, 2.43 BB/9 in 63 innings) and is signed to a reasonable contract through 2020.
- Although left-hander Rich Hill looks like an attractive trade candidate, the Athletics could elect to keep the 36-year-old and extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end if nobody makes a satisfactory offer for him. The A’s would then either retain Hill for at least another season at $15.8MM – a significant increase from his current salary of $6MM – or lose him in free agency and receive a first-round pick as compensation.
- Teams are contacting the Padres about southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Rosenthal, who adds that GM A.J. Preller “remains open-minded” to the idea of moving any of his players. Acquired from the A’s for a pittance during the offseason, Pomeranz has somewhat quietly been terrific this season. With a stingy 1.70 ERA, the 27-year-old is behind only Clayton Kershaw and he ranks 12th among qualified starters in strikeouts per nine innings (10.19), though his lofty 4.25 BB/9 is 10th from the bottom. Pomeranz is currently on a cheap salary of $1.35MM and has two arbitration-eligible years remaining.
AL East Notes: Machado, Desmond, Rays, Atkins, Bautista
Here’s the latest from around the AL East…
- Manny Machado talked to reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) about several topics in a media session today, including his happiness that Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day are all still Orioles. The team’s willingness to spend this offseason “brings out hope” that Machado will also be able to sign a new contract to remain in Baltimore, as he desires. “They’re trying to keep everybody here. That’s good for me. I hope they keep me here for [the] long term,” Machado said. “But the case is, you can’t really sign everybody. You can’t bring everybody back. But it’s just part of the business, people you can bring back, people who you can’t, people who won’t be. But I think we’re making an effort of bringing everybody back, keeping the same clubhouse, the same core.”
- It’s “still quite unlikely” that Ian Desmond will sign with the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Desmond’s list of possible suitors got even thinner yesterday when the White Sox signed Jimmy Rollins to address the shortstop position. The Rays have had some talks with Desmond, but the sticking point is the Rays’ unwillingness to surrender its first round draft pick (the 13th overall selection) to make the signing, as Desmond is a qualifying offer free agent.
- In a session with reporters (including Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi) this morning, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins gave no comment on either Jose Bautista‘s contract ultimatum or the reportedly off-the-table trade involving Jay Bruce and Michael Saunders. In regards to Bautista, Atkins said any extension talks between the team and the slugger won’t be made public, as “in relation to the negotiation, out of respect for him, out of respect for the Blue Jays organization, we just can’t get into the specifics of it.”
- In another piece from Davidi, he characterized the Blue Jays‘ decision on Bautista as a bellwether of how the club plans to operate in the near future beyond the 2016 season, in regards to both spending and fielding a contender.
East Notes: Vazquez, Machado, Marlins
Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez has made enough progress in his return from Tommy John surgery that he’s comfortable he’ll be ready for Spring Training, he told reporters, including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, as the Sox’s Winter Weekend today. Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson also sounds convinced that Vazquez is back to normal — Johnson, who can reach the low 90s, saw Vazquez throw from 150 feet last week and says he thinks Vazquez was throwing harder than he himself could. Mastrodonato suggests it’s likely the Red Sox will have Vazquez start the season in the minors (which isn’t surprising, since Vazquez is optionable and didn’t play at all last year), and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski describes Blake Swihart as the team’s No. 1 catcher. Mastrodonato notes, though, that Swihart could eventually move to another position, with Vazquez, the better defender, ultimately taking over behind the plate. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- The Orioles have more on their to-do list even after re-signing Chris Davis, Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com writes. They can still use an outfielder and starting pitcher (maybe Yovani Gallardo, although top Orioles exec Dan Duquette has said he doesn’t want to part with the No. 14 overall pick by signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer). Dubroff also notes (perhaps somewhat speculatively) that they could also pursue a Manny Machado extension. An extension for Machado would surely be hugely expensive, since he’ll already be making $5MM this season in his first year of arbitration eligibility and already has one elite season under his belt, which he posted at the tender age of 22. Machado is currently scheduled to hit free agency following the 2018 season, by which point he’ll only be 26; if he can continue at anything resembling his current pace, his mid- to late-20s seasons will be incredibly valuable on the open market.
- The Marlins were interested in Fernando Rodney before Rodney’s signing with the Padres, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes (scroll down). With Rodney off the board, Marlins executive Michael Hill says the team will have an open competition for the closer’s job, with Carter Capps (he of the ridiculous 98-MPH fastball and 16.8 K/9 in 2015) facing off against A.J. Ramos (who himself had a strong season while recording 32 saves in 2015).
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump: