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Matt Carpenter

Cardinals Decline Options On Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez

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The Cardinals have declined their 2022 options on infielder Matt Carpenter and right-hander Carlos Martinez, the MLBPA announced. Carpenter had an $18.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, whereas Martinez’s contract included a $17MM option with a $500K buyout. It was a foregone conclusion that the pair of options would be bought out after poor 2021 showings for both longtime Cardinals, who are now free agents for the first time in their careers.

Carpenter, 36 in three weeks, still draws plenty of walks (11.4%) and makes a lot of hard contact — but much of that hard contact is pulled on the ground into an eagerly awaiting shift. Just shy of 75% of Carpenter’s ground-balls were pulled this season, so it’s hardly a surprise that he batted .143 on ground-balls despite a leaguewide average of .236 on grounders. It’s a similar story on line-drives; Carpenter pulled exactly two-thirds of his liners this season and hit .536 — whereas the league average on line drives was a much larger .689.

Prior to his recent decline, Carpenter was a fixture in the St. Louis batting order who made a trio of All-Star teams and thrice drew MVP votes in the National League — including a fourth-place finish in 2013. Since Opening Day 2020, however, he’s managed just a .176/.313/.291 batting line with a 29.9% strikeout rate. Carpenter has made clear he wants to play in 2022, but it’ll almost certainly require him signing on with a new team, as the Cardinals’ infield is quite crowded. Even if the DH comes to the National League, Carpenter’s 2020-21 swoon probably wouldn’t make him a top consideration for the Cards.

Martinez’s decline was even swifter and was far less expected. Still just 30 years old, the righty was limited to 48 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain in 2019 but remained highly effective when he did take the mound that year. From 2015-19, he looked like a rotation building block — hence his $51MM contract extension — as he logged 747 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with a strong 23.7% strikeout rate and a 9.0% walk rate.

However, in 2020, Martinez was blown up for a 9.90 ERA in 20 innings, and after a strong run in mid-April and May this season, his season took a catastrophic nose dive. Martinez served up 10 runs against the Dodgers on June 2 and was tagged for five runs in three of his next four starts. His season ultimately ended with a 6.23 ERA through 82 1/3 innings and a torn ligament on his thumb that landed him on the 60-day IL. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Martinez owns a 6.95 ERA and a woeful 6.0 K-BB% that would’ve seemed unfathomable just a few years ago.

Carpenter: “I Definitely Want To Play” In 2022

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Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter is in the midst of the worst season of his career at the plate and will turn 36 in November, but the three-time All-Star made clear this week that he’s hoping for a chance to right the ship in 2022. The Cardinals are a lock to buy out his $18.5MM club option, but Carpenter tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’s not currently thinking about calling it quits. “I don’t know what the future holds for me as far as what [the Cardinals’] plans are, what the plans for me are,” says Carpenter. “I definitely want to play.”

The question then becomes one of whether Carpenter will be able return to the Cards at a (much) lower price or find an opportunity with another club. Carpenter has just 63 plate appearances since the All-Star break, and 33 of those have come as a pinch-hitter. He’s hitless since Aug. 7 — a span of 35 plate appearances — with five walks and 13 strikeouts mixed in along the way. His season batting line checks in at .169/.304/.275, and his 32.6 percent strikeout rate is a career-high.

The downturn at the plate has been pronounced but also isn’t entirely out of the blue. Rather, Carpenter has been in a steady decline since a 36-homer campaign in 2018 that netted him some stray MVP votes down the ballot and a ninth-place finish overall. He followed that with a down year in 2019 but was at least roughly average at the plate. He then hit .186/.325/.314 with 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 169 trips to the plate last season.

Over the past two seasons, Carpenter has batted just .176/.313/.292 in 396 plate appearances. His role with the Cardinals has diminished both due to his struggles and due to the presence of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman around the St. Louis infield. All three players will be back with St. Louis in 2022, and even a bench role might not be much of a consideration for the Cards. Edmundo Sosa has outplayed Carpenter across the board and offers more versatility in the infield. Carpenter hasn’t logged a single inning in the outfield since 2014. If a universal designated hitter is implemented, there’ll surely be calls — at least from fans — for an Albert Pujols farewell tour at that position.

It’s not out of the question that Carpenter could find another role with a new organization, however, particularly if the National League designated hitter does come into play. His 13.7 percent walk rate remains outstanding — tied for 20th-best among the 330 big league hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. Carpenter is still hitting the ball hard, too. Of the 386 hitters with at least 100 batted ball events in 2021, Carpenter is tied for 71st in average exit velocity, ranks 59th in barrel rate and sits 135th in hard-hit rate (i.e. batted balls at 95 mph or higher). It’s not a dominant profile, but it’s one that certainly looks like it should produce more than a .169 batting average and .275 slugging percentage.

Of course, Carpenter is done in both by the infrequency of his contact and by the pull-happy nature of the balls he does put into play. He’s highly susceptible to the shift, which makes his nearly 77 percent pull rate on grounders immensely problematic.  Carpenter has tried to counteract that by focusing on elevating the ball, but he isn’t pulling the ball in the air like he did during his big 2018 season. In terms of exit velocity, launch angle and hard-hit percentage, Carpenter’s 2018 and 2021 seasons are strikingly similar. However, just 16 percent of Carpenter’s fly-balls have been pulled this season — down from 29 percent in 2018. Nearly 54 percent of Carpenter’s flies are going up the middle, which at least partially explains the drop from a 19.1 percent homer-to-flyball rate in 2018 to this year’s 5.4 percent mark.

Other teams will surely draw their own theories about Carpenter’s decline and drum up some plans of attack to remedy the problems. He’s unlikely to rediscover his 2018 form thanks to the huge uptick in strikeouts, but Carpenter’s walk rate, hard-contact profile and overall track record could still seemingly generate some interest elsewhere around the league.

That’s particularly possible if, as Carpenter himself puts it to Goold, he’s willing to “do whatever I have to do to continue playing.” It’s possible that with his recent struggles, Carpenter won’t find much in the way of guaranteed big league offers. But, if he’s willing to head to Spring Training on a minor league pact, a team seeking some corner infield depth and/or a veteran left-handed bench bat might be willing to take a speculative look.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, O’Neill, Carpenter

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Yadier Molina left Friday night’s game due to right foot soreness, after appearing to hurt his foot on a swing during a fifth-inning at-bat.  Molina struck out on the wayward swing, and was replaced by Andrew Knizner at catcher in the top of the sixth.  Molina will undergo testing to determine the extent of the injury, and any sort of absence would represent a big loss to the St. Louis lineup.  Over his first 68 plate appearances, Molina is hitting a scorching .339/.382/.661 with five home runs, with a 180 OPS+ that ranks tied for 14th among all qualified batters in the majors.  While this level of offensive production wasn’t expected to continue, it was at least a good sign that Molina was bouncing back from a pair of subpar years at the plate.

More from The Gateway City…

  • In other Cardinals injury news, Tyler O’Neill was activated off the 10-day IL yesterday.  O’Neill saw some action in the 5-4 victory over the Reds, entering the game as the new left fielder during a double-switch in the sixth inning, though he didn’t start due to a minor foot injury.  Manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that O’Neill fouled a ball off his foot during a simulated game on Thursday, though obviously the issue wasn’t serious enough to either prevent O’Neill’s IL activation, or to keep the outfielder from taking the field.  O’Neill hit the injured list due to a groin strain back on April 11, and is looking to get on track after hitting only .138/.167/.276 in his first 30 PA of this young season.
  • With O’Neill back and Harrison Bader also approaching a return from his forearm injury, Matt Carpenter looks like the odd man out of the Cardinals lineup.  President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that “those at-bats are going to be more difficult to find if production isn’t there” for Carpenter, who has an .077/.213/.154 slash line in 47 plate appearances.  Despite some outstanding hard-contact numbers, Carpenter is striking out and swinging-and-missing at a high volume, Frederickson notes, while also posting a career-worst walk rate.  It represents the low point of over two seasons of struggles for Carpenter, who has been a below-average hitter since the start of the 2019 campaign.  The Cardinals had already addressed this decline by relegating Carpenter to a part-time role at best heading into the season, and Mozeliak’s comments suggest that Carpenter could be hard-pressed to receive any significant playing time going forward.  Carpenter is in the final guaranteed year of a two-year, $39MM extension, and though Frederickson said that there wasn’t any indication that the Cardinals might simply eat the remaining salary by releasing Carpenter, it doesn’t make much sense to use a roster spot on a scuffling player who isn’t part of the team’s future plans.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Cardinals, Diamondbacks

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Teams in need of a left-handed hitting outfielder might want to check in with the Yankees about the availability of Mike Tauchman. Though the Yankees have four years of control remaining, there may simply not be room for him on the opening day roster, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. It’s not just the addition of Brett Gardner that could push Tauchman out of the picture, though that doesn’t help Tauchman’s case. He’s competing with Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich for that fifth outfielder role, and that veteran pair both bring the ability to play first base as well. That’s not on Tauchman’s resume. After a surprising .277/.361/.504 line over 296 plate appearances in 2019 turned the 30-year-old into a valuable member of the Yankee reserves, the power dissipated in 2020. His bat slipped from 28 percent better than average to 22 percent below by measure of wRC+. Mike Ford’s playing time could also be at risk, but the backup first baseman has two option years remaining, whereas Tauchman would have to pass through waivers.

  • Matt Carpenter is not conceding his spot in the everyday lineup just yet, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter won’t take many at-bats from Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado at the corners, and he’s competing with popular upstart Tommy Edman at the keystone, though Edman can play the outfield, too. Had the universal DH made its way to the league this season, Carpenter likely would have lined up for many of those at-bats. As is, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat out Edman at second, even if defense wasn’t a consideration. After being a 133 wRC+ hitter from 2012 to 2018, Carpenter fell to 95 wRC+ and 84 wRC+ the past two seasons. His batted ball profile has generally paralleled that trajectory, with exit velocity and hard hit percentage down in 2019 and 2020 from where he’d been previously.
  • The Diamondbacks are promoting a new assistant general manager, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Mike Fitzgerald was previously the analytics director, and he now joins Amiel Sawdaye as assistant GMs under Executive VP and GM Mike Hazen. Ross Seaton has also been promoted to director of pitching.

NL Central Notes: Rodriguez, Carpenter, Farmer

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There is plenty of opportunity for hurlers to win jobs on the rebuilding Pirates’ pitching staff, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) breaks down the full list of arms in Pittsburgh’s Spring Training camp.  This isn’t to say that the Bucs are entirely done making moves, however, as Biertempfel names Richard Rodriguez the “Pirates reliever most likely to be traded this spring.”

Since signing with Pittsburgh prior to the 2018 season, Rodriguez has posted very strong numbers — a 3.02 ERA, and an above-average 28.16K% and 7.15BB% over 158 relief innings.  Home runs have been an issue (1.3 HR/9) and Rodriguez’s hard-contact numbers were among the worst in baseball last season, though he also has some elite (96th percentile) fastball spin.  Rodriguez turns 31 in March, but he is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, and is set to earn a modest $1.7MM this season.  There hasn’t been any public trade speculation about Rodriguez during the offseason to date, yet considering how the Pirates are open to discussing virtually player in the organization, it seems likely some teams have already been in touch about Rodriguez.  More talks could develop as Spring Training continues and clubs get a clearer sense of their bullpen needs.

Some more items from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter will not be spending time in the outfield this season, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News (Twitter link) and other reports. Now that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are entrenched at Carpenter’s usual corner infield positions, there has been some speculation that the Cardinals could look for other ways to get his bat in the lineup. Since the outfield is a non-starter for Carpenter and NL teams won’t have a designated hitter spot, this leaves either a second base platoon with Tommy Edman or bench duty for the 35-year-old Carpenter.  The three-time All-Star has seen a steep decline at the plate over the past two seasons, and 2021 looms as Carpenter’s final year in St. Louis — the Cardinals have an $18.5MM club option for 2022 that seems almost sure to be bought out unless Carpenter has a major rebound.
  • Kyle Farmer was keeping one eye on baseball Twitter this offseason to see if the Reds would sign a shortstop, he told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, since Farmer was preparing to take a shot at the position himself.  After playing just one game at shortstop over his first three seasons, Farmer made 15 appearances as a shortstop in 2020, and still remains in the mix for at least semi-regular work among a group that also includes Kyle Holder, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Max Schrock.  (Jose Garcia is one of the few pure shortstops on the roster, though he is set to begin the season in the minors.)  Farmer lost 10 pounds and overhauled his swing this offseason in his bid to prove himself worthy of regular playing time, though his multi-position versatility already makes him a strong candidate for a roster spot.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

NL Central Notes: Carpenter, Alvarez, Cubs, Lindor, Reds, Eckstein

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After struggling in both 2019 and 2020, Matt Carpenter has reshaped his offseason training routine in advance of what he considers to be a make-or-break year or perhaps even his final year in the big leagues, Carpenter tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Carpenter’s contract with the Cardinals is up after the 2021 season, unless he records at least 550 plate appearances to trigger an $18.5MM vesting option for 2022.  “As far as guarantees, this is the last guaranteed trip to spring training, period, for me.  Maybe for any baseball team, let alone St. Louis,” Carpenter said.  “I think about that, and that’s why I say it’s such an important season for me personally.  And that’s not even to say whether I want to play past this season.  I just want to finish strong.”

Carpenter is entering his age-35 season, and he is likely correct in guessing that another tough year will greatly lessen his chances at anything beyond a low-cost MLB contract or even a minor league deal next winter.  Carpenter finished ninth in NL MVP voting as recently as 2018, but has since hit .216/.332/.372 over 661 plate appearances in 2019-20.  Between the Cardinals’ COVID-19 outbreak and the compressed schedule of make-up games once they returned to play, Carpenter didn’t feel the 2020 season was “a fair representation, hitting or pitching, good or bad” for the entire club.  Still, Carpenter knows he needs to get on track, saying “the last two seasons, in my eyes, our offense has been about a bat short….I have basically been the one bat missing.  I put a lot of the responsibility for the offensive woes the past two seasons on myself.”

More from the NL Central…

  • As rumors swirl about Kris Bryant trade talks between the Cubs and Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Chicago has a particular interest in Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez.  Currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 58th-best prospect in all of baseball, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs (and probably many other teams) would like to have Alvarez in their farm system, particularly if Willson Contreras might also soon be dealt away from Wrigleyville.  In regards to a Bryant trade, it seems unlikely that New York would deal Alvarez for just one year of Bryant’s service.  Even with James McCann now signed to a four-year deal, Alvarez might still be the Mets’ catcher of the future since he is only 19 years old, so the Mets surely have their eyes on grooming Alvarez to be ready by the time McCann’s contract is up.
  • “The Reds were not involved in making any push to acquire Francisco Lindor” before the Indians dealt Lindor to the Mets on Tuesday, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  Acquiring Lindor to fill their hole at shortstop would’ve been quite the pivot for the Reds, whose offseason focus to this point has largely been on cutting salary, between trading Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, non-tendering Archie Bradley, and being open to trade offers for many high-priced stars.  This isn’t to say that Cincinnati might not yet sign a shortstop from amongst the well-known free agent names still on the market, but Lindor was likely a bridge too far, given the prospect cost to pry him away from Cleveland and the likelihood that the Reds wouldn’t be able to sign Lindor to an extension beyond the 2021 season.
  • David Eckstein is leaving the Pirates after two years as a special assistant to the baseball operations department, according to Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports (Twitter link).  Eckstein made the move in order to spend more time with his family.  The former 10-league MLB veteran is best remembered for his role in helping both the 2002 Angels and 2006 Cardinals win the World Series, even capturing Series MVP honors with St. Louis.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, Southpaws, Carpenter

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The latest out of the Cardinals’ camp…

  • Yadier Molina intends to finish his career as a Cardinal, though the longtime catcher won’t insist on a starting role throughout the life of a potential new contract with St. Louis.  According to The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required), Molina “has informed club officials he would be willing to take a reduced role in the second season of an extension.”  This would represent the 2022 campaign, as Molina is entering the final year of his current contract.  Given that Molina will be 39 years old on Opening Day 2022, moving into a part-time or backup role at that late stage of his career isn’t really a surprise, aside from the fact that Molina has always been such a workhorse behind the plate.  Molina has the seventh-most games played (1947) as a catcher in baseball history, and with three more seasons, could potentially pass Carlton Fisk (2226) for second on the all-time list.  Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera are the two top young catchers in the Cards’ farm system, with Saxon noting that Knizner (who has already cracked the big leagues and would be 27 on Opening Day 2022) could still potentially become a trade chip if St. Louis feels Herrera is the better bet as Molina’s heir apparent.
  • The Cardinals have been working to add more left-handed pitching to their roster, with GM Michael Girsch telling the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold that “when we had the opportunity to make transactions, we sided slightly to the left if we could.”  Some of the southpaws acquired in big and small moves over the last two years include Andrew Miller, Kwang-Hyun Kim, Genesis Cabrera, Tyler Webb, Matthew Liberatore, Rob Kaminsky, and Ricardo Sanchez, and several of those names are in the mix to play bigger roles for the Cards in 2020.  Beyond the need for greater balance between lefty and righty pitching, there is also a specific strategic element at play, given all of the big left-handed bats in the NL Central.
  • Matt Carpenter missed Wednesday’s Spring Training game with what he described as a “super minor” back injury, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes.  The back tightness wouldn’t have prevented Carpenter from playing in a regular season game, though perhaps even the fact that he reported the issue is indicative of how Carpenter is approaching his health and conditioning as he tries to rebound from a rough 2019 season.  “Today would’ve been a great example of not saying anything, going out and played, and something happening….I think that is going to be big for me going forward, just being open to not push through stuff that can set me back for a month, and just say, ‘Hey, today I don’t feel as good,’ and it’s two days instead of two months,” Carpenter said.

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

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