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Michael Wacha

Padres Sign Michael Wacha

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The Padres announced Thursday they’ve signed free-agent righty Michael Wacha. The CAA client will reportedly receive a $3.5MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2023. After the upcoming season, the Padres will have to decide whether or not to pick up successive $16MM options for 2024 and 2025 — essentially a two-year, $32MM deal. If the club declines that option, Wacha will have a series of player options, respectively valued at $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in 2025-26. Unlike the team option, Wacha’s options are a series of one-year decisions he’ll be able to make each offseason.

Since player options are considered guaranteed, all this amounts to a $26MM guarantee over four years, combining this year’s money with the three options. Additionally, Wacha can earn an extra $500K for reaching 20 and 25 starts and $1MM for 30 starts this season and any year under a player option. The incentives would not be available for 2024-25 if the club triggers its option. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, the Padres placed infielder Eguy Rosario on the 60-day injured list. It was reported a couple of weeks ago that Rosario suffered a broken ankle and would be out until “midsummer.”

Wacha, 31, was the best remaining starting pitcher on the market and arguably the best free agent left standing overall. The right-hander turned in 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball in 2022 — a fine rebound showing after a tough three-year stretch from 2019-21. Wacha’s 6% walk rate in 2022 was particularly sharp, and he scaled back his home run rate quite a bit in 2022 (1.83 HR/9 from 2019-21; 1.27 HR/9 in 2022). He was better than average at limiting hard contact from his opponents, surrendering an 88.2 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate.

The 2022 performance, however, wasn’t without its red flags. A pair of trips to the injured list, one for an intercostal strain and another for shoulder inflammation, limited him to 23 starts. That shoulder issue was his fourth IL placement due to shoulder trouble since 2014. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball rate were below the league average, albeit by a matter of a couple percentage points each.

Ultimately, Wacha had a solid season but can’t reasonably be expected to replicate that shiny 3.32 ERA. Beyond some of last year’s under-the-hood numbers, it should be pointed out that from 2019-21, Wacha pitched 285 1/3 innings with a 5.11 ERA between the Cardinals, Mets and Rays. Wacha’s strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that stretch all compare favorably to his 2022 work, however, and the main culprit for his struggles in that stretch could well have been an anomalously high home-run rate that trended back toward his career levels in 2022.

In all likelihood, Wacha’s true talent level lies somewhere between the extremes of that 2019-21 stretch and his sharp 2022 output. Fielding-independent marks pegged him around 4.00 last year (4.14 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA). That’d make him a solid option closer to the back end of a big league rotation, which is just where he’s likely to slot in with his new club in San Diego. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are slotted into the top three rotation spots, but Wacha will give the Friars a solid No. 4 option.

Both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have been expected to be utilized as starters with the Padres in 2023, but it’s not a given that Wacha will push either to the bullpen. There’s been talk of a six-man rotation in San Diego, which is only sensible given that Martinez and Lugo both worked primarily out of the bullpen in 2022. Martinez made 10 starts for the Padres but 37 relief appearances, finishing out the season at 106 1/3 innings. Lugo has been exclusively a reliever in 2021-22, with his last start coming for the 2020 Mets. Both righties will likely see their workloads monitored in 2023, so bringing Wacha into the mix both gives the Padres some sorely needed depth and gives them an organic mechanism with which to manage the innings counts for Martinez and Lugo.

Even looking beyond the possible six-man rotation, the Padres are now simply better positioned to withstand an injury to one of their top five arms. That’s of particular importance, as recent trades have thinned out the system’s depth. Gone are MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Luis Patino, Cal Quantrill and Robert Gasser, who were traded in the respective packages that netted Juan Soto, Taylor Rogers, Snell, Mike Clevinger (who departed as a free agent) and Josh Hader.

The top depth options behind Martinez and Lugo on the 40-man roster had been Adrian Morejon (57 1/3 innings in 2022), Ryan Weathers (6.73 ERA in Triple-A), Reiss Knehr (6.88 ERA in Triple-A), Pedro Avila (13 1/3 MLB innings) and Jay Groome (zero MLB experience; 67 innings in Triple-A). Non-roster veterans in camp include Julio Teheran, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks. Suffice it to say, any serious injury to the starting staff pre-Wacha would’ve stretched the depth; two might have been disastrous. Wacha helps to lessen such risks.

Wacha’s deal was surely structured with care, in an effort to keep the team shy of the third luxury tax barrier. The convoluted option sequence serves to tamp down the deal’s average annual value. Wacha’s deal comes with a $6.5MM hit for competitive balance tax purposes, with the 2023 money and three player options all treated as guaranteed years from a CBT angle.

San Diego had been estimated less than $7MM away from the third tier of luxury penalization, which kicks in at $273MM. If the Friars exceed that point, they’ll begin to be taxed at a 75% rate for any money spent up to $293MM (rather than the 45% rate at which they were taxed on the previous $20MM spent). That’s a small slap on the wrist by itself, but stepping into the third bracket of luxury penalties also pushes a team’s top pick in the next year’s draft (i.e. 2024) back by ten places. The team’s league-allotted bonus pool is also inherently reduced, in conjunction with the diminished slot value of that pick.

The Padres are a team in all-out win-now mode, but they’ve ostensibly been unwilling to pass the $273MM threshold and incur the associated draft penalties. Even this agreement with Wacha would likely not have been possible had the team not signed the aforementioned Darvish to an extension that tamped down the AAV on his own contract, giving them a couple million dollars of extra wiggle room with regard to the tax.

The apparent unwillingness to step into tier three of the luxury tax is understandable, to an extent, given that the front office surely wants to recoup some of the minor league talent that was lost in trades for Soto, Hader and others. That said, it’s still possible that in-season needs will prompt the team to make a tough decision on that front, as the trade deadline could come down to a matter of taking on salary (and crossing into that tax bracket anyway) or persuading trade partners to pay down the salary of any players being sent to San Diego, which would likely require the Padres to surrender additional minor league talent anyhow. There’s an argument that the Padres should’ve just barreled past the tax line in the offseason, but it seems they’ll continue trying to thread the needle of fielding the strongest possible club while preserving the strongest possible 2024 draft. Whether that path remains tenable come July remains to be seen.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the agreement, financial terms and incentive breakdown.

Padres Showing Interest In Michael Wacha

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The Padres have recently checked in with righty Michael Wacha, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. San Diego has also shown recent interest in veteran southpaw Cole Hamels as part of his comeback effort, according to Acee.

Those hurlers are in very different spots of their careers. Wacha is the best remaining free agent starting pitcher and the only hurler who made MLBTR’s top 50 free agents at the start of the offseason who is still unsigned. The 31-year-old is coming off a solid season for the Red Sox, making good on a $7MM free agent deal to turn in a 3.32 ERA across 23 starts and 127 1/3 innings.

Wacha’s camp apparently entered free agency with a fairly lofty goal on the heels of that showing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last month his camp had been seeking around $30MM over two seasons. There hasn’t seemed to be sufficient interest from the market to push prices to that level, and Acee suggests Wacha’s asking price has lowered as the regular season draws nearer.

On the surface, a $15MM average annual value over two years isn’t an outlandish ask for a pitcher who posted such a strong ERA during his platform year. However, there are a handful of other indicators that raise questions about Wacha’s ability to sustain upper mid-rotation production. The 2022 season was the first in four years in which the veteran hurler allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings and came on the heels of consecutive campaigns with an ERA above 5.00. Wacha’s peripherals weren’t dramatically different from those of his prior showings.

Last year’s 20.2% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2019, as was his 9.5% swinging strike percentage. Wacha’s average fastball speed was at exactly 93 MPH after sitting at 93.6 MPH and 93.8 MPH, respectively, in 2020-21. His ground-ball rate was up a couple percentage points relative to his past couple years and he demonstrated the above-average control he’s owned throughout his career. Yet the most significant difference in 2022 was that opponents hit only .260 on balls in play after combining for a .324 BABIP between 2020-21.

Of course, there’s room for Wacha’s ERA to regress while still remaining palatable. Thanks largely to his plus strike-throwing, he’s posted a SIERA between 3.99 and 4.07 in each of the last three seasons. He’s a capable back-of-the-rotation starter, making him a reasonable fit for a win-now San Diego team that’s prepared to take some risk in their starting staff. Converted relievers Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are respectively penciled into the fourth and fifth rotation spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. The Friars are taking a leap of faith in both pitchers’ ability to hold up as starters — Martinez fared better as a reliever last year, and Lugo hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2018 — and adding a stable veteran like Wacha could alleviate some of the pressure on Martinez and Lugo.

It doesn’t appear San Diego is looking to displace either of that duo from the rotation. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters this afternoon the club had yet to decide whether to proceed with a five-man or six-man starting staff (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). That could well depend on the team’s personnel, and bringing in Wacha would likely lead to the expanded rotation. Among internal options, Adrián Morejón, Reiss Knehr, Jay Groome and Pedro Avila are among those could battle for starts if the Friars want to lessen the load on their top five and/or incur any injuries.

The club’s openness to a six-man rotation could play into their interest in Hamels, although he certainly wouldn’t secure a guaranteed rotation job at the time of his signing. The four-time All-Star has had his last three seasons derailed by injuries. He’s started just one MLB game since the start of the 2020 season, missing the past two and a half years as various ailments (most notably recurring shoulder problems) have kept him out of action. He didn’t sign anywhere last year but is hoping for a comeback at age 39.

To that end, the longtime Phillie threw in front of scouts in late January. He’ll have to settle for a minor league contract after two lost seasons but seems likely to get a look from some club in Spring Training if healthy. Hamels is no stranger to the area, having grown up in San Diego and entering pro ball as a first-round pick out of Rancho Bernardo High School back in 2002.

Poll: Who Signs First, Jurickson Profar Or Michael Wacha?

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Essentially from the moment MLB Trade Rumors published our annual top 50 free agents list, players immediately started flying off the board.  While the last few non-lockout offseasons saw a slowed free agent market, many of the biggest names of the 2022-23 class had already found new teams by the start of January…give or take Carlos Correa’s three-team saga, of course.  Now that Andrew Chafin has agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks, only two players from that top-50 listing remain unsigned as Spring Training dawns: Jurickson Profar (ranked 33rd) and Michael Wacha (41st).

Profar voluntarily chose to test the open market, as he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres.  Entering the third and final year of that deal, Profar took a $1MM buyout rather than the $7.5MM owed to him in 2023, thus making a $6.5MM bet that he could find a longer-term and more lucrative deal in free agency.  MLBTR agreed, projecting Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal.

Such a contract has yet to emerge for Profar, despite plenty of interest.  The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers, and Orioles have all been linked to Profar at various points this offseason, though Houston and Boston have seemingly already addressed needs in left field.  The other reported suitors have somewhat clearer needs in left field, even if in-house options abound for all four teams.  Other factors may also be at play for particular teams — for example, the Yankees are very close to surpassing the top luxury tax threshold ($293MM), and reportedly don’t want to hit that highest penalty line.

As Profar approaches his 30th birthday, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever live up to his former top-prospect status, yet he provided solid numbers in three of the last five seasons.  Of course, that isn’t the most consistent track record, and Profar’s .241/.326/.403 slash line over 2384 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season works out to a barely above-average 101 wRC+.  While Profar had 110 wRC+ in 2022 and his 2.5 fWAR was the best of his career, this recent performance might not be enough to overcome a perception that is only a “good” player, and teams may not be willing to give a multi-year deal for just “good” (and somewhat unpredictable) performance going forward.

It can be assumed that Profar is at least looking to top that $6.5MM salary he left on the table in San Diego, but his current contract demands are unknown.  It could be that Profar is open to a one-year contract — or one guaranteed year with an option for 2024 — at an average annual value slightly higher than $6.5MM, so he can at least recoup that money and then test the market again next winter.  Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is well-known both for waiting until deep into an offseason to find an acceptable deal for his clients, and for coming up with creative contracts that include flexibility for both the player and the team.

There is a bit more information about Wacha’s demands, since as of two weeks ago, the right-hander and his reps at CAA Sports were reportedly looking for a two-year contract in the range of $30MM.  This is well above the two-year, $16MM deal that MLBTR projected for Wacha’s next deal, though prices for starting pitchers have mostly skyrocketed this winter.

The Orioles, Twins, and Angels have all reportedly had interest in Wacha this offseason, though Minnesota’s trade for Pablo Lopez might have sealed up the last spot in the rotation.  For Baltimore, Wacha has been on the Orioles’ radar both before and after their signing of Kyle Gibson, a similar veteran arm meant to provide innings and experience within the young O’s rotation.  The Angels were the most recent of the three clubs to check in (in early February), and while Los Angeles has already signed Tyler Anderson to bolster the starter ranks, the Angels need a particular amount of depth given their likely deployment of a six-man rotation.

As with Profar, Wacha might fit into that “good but not great” category due to a lack of consistency.  After posting shaky results from 2019-21, Wacha seemingly got back on track by posting a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022.  The righty did a good job of limiting hard contact and he continued his recent trend of limiting walks, but the rest of his Statcast sheet wasn’t overly impressive, including a 20.2% strikeout rate that was well below league average.  Wacha also spent about seven weeks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which is of particular concern given his past history of shoulder injuries.

Despite these drawbacks, Wacha’s market is boosted by the simple cliche of “you can never have enough pitching.”  Teams with seemingly full rotations might prefer to sign Wacha and push a younger arm further down the depth chart, or it is quite possible a new club might emerge as a suitor should a pitching injury arise during Spring Training.  That same logic also extends to Profar, as a team’s outfield plans might suddenly be altered if a lineup regular gets hurt.

Which of these free agents do you think will be the next to sign?

(poll link for app users)

Angels Have Shown Interest In Elvis Andrus, Michael Wacha, Gary Sánchez

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The Angels didn’t make any earth-shattering moves this offseason but have nonetheless been busy adding complementary pieces to their squad. They’ve signed utility player Brandon Drury, left-hander Tyler Anderson, righty Carlos Estévez and outfielder Brett Phillips, in addition to trading for infielder Gio Urshela and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With just over a week until Spring Training, it seems they are still not done, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting they’ve been in touch on Elvis Andrus, Michael Wacha, Gary Sánchez, Andrew Chafin and Zack Britton.

The interest in Britton was reported last week but those four other names show that the club is casting a wide net in its continued search for upgrades to the roster. The interest in Chafin makes plenty of sense since he and Britton are both left-handed relievers. They are in very different positions as free agents, however, with Britton coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons that followed a lengthy run as one of the best relievers in the league.

Chafin, on the other hand, has been fairly consistent for a few years and has been even better recently. Even though he had a rough showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, he’s still posted a 3.05 ERA over the past six seasons. Isolating that to just 2021 and 2022, his ERA was 2.29 with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. Either of those two, or any of the other southpaw relievers still available, would be a logical addition for an Angels club that currently has 35-year-old Aaron Loup as its best option in that department. Loup posted a ridiculous 0.95 ERA with the Mets in 2021 but saw that number jump to 3.84 last year. The interest in those pitchers seems to be wide, however, with at least 10 teams seemingly in the running.

Andrus, 34, is a veteran shortstop who has appeared in each of the past 14 seasons. Generally considered to be a strong defender and baserunner, his bat has been inconsistent, though he’s coming off a strong platform in that regard. From 2018 to 2021, he hit just .255/.302/.360 for a wRC+ of 74, but he launched 17 home runs last year and slashed .249/.303/.404 for a wRC+ of 105. When combined with his glovework and 18 steals, he was worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the season. His market has been fairly quiet so far, with the Red Sox the only other club connected to him this offseason.

The Angels don’t really have a clear shortstop at the moment, with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and Urshela potential options there. All three of them have spent more time at other positions so far in their careers. Fletcher would be the strongest defensive option of that bunch, having received strong grades from advanced metrics. However, he’s generally fared poorly at the plate, outside of the shortened 2020 season. His career batting line is currently .278/.324/.360, wRC+ of 87. Rengifo and Urshela were both above average at the plate last year but got poor marks for their work at short. If Andrus were brought in, he could firm up the position and bump those guys into spending more time at second or the corners. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh should take third and first base, respectively, but both are question marks after injury-marred seasons. Having Urshela, Fletcher, Rengifo and Drury on the roster for one second base job and bench roles would be crowded, but any one player going to the IL would quickly free up some opportunities, and some of them are capable of playing the outfield as well.

Wacha, 31, is considered by many to be the top starting pitcher still unsigned based on his strong 2022 season, but his work prior to that season is mixed. With the Red Sox last year, he posted a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings, striking out just 20.2% of opponents but keeping his walks down to a 6% rate. He made multiple trips to the injured list on the year, however, which is likely a concern for interested clubs. He hasn’t hit the 130-inning mark since 2017 and has seen his results oscillate wildly since then. He had a 3.20 ERA in 2018 but made only 15 starts that year. That was followed by ERAs of 4.76, 6.62 and 5.05 over the next three years before the solid 2022 campaign.

That shakiness aside, there is a fit with the Halos. The club currently has five solid rotations options in Shohei Ohtani, Anderson, Reid Detmers, José Suarez and Patrick Sandoval. However, they have generally used a six-man rotation with Ohtani around, in order to limit his overall workload with him also playing in the lineup almost every day. That arrangement could suit Wacha well, since he hasn’t been able to stay healthy over a full season in recent years. He’s reportedly looking for a two-year deal and has also been connected to the Orioles and Twins, though that was before those clubs acquired Cole Irvin and Pablo López, respectively.

Sánchez, 30, had an extreme profile early on his career, tearing the cover off the ball but not getting great reviews for his glovework. Those extremes have been sanded down in recent years, as his work at the plate has cooled but his defense has seemingly been less concerning of late. With the Twins last year, he hit .205/.282/.377 for a wRC+ of 89, was considered above average by Defensive Runs Saved and got positive marks for his framing from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. He was connected to the Giants at one point this offseason but that was before they agreed to terms with Roberto Pérez.

The club has a couple of catching options in Max Stassi and Logan O’Hoppe. However, they were connected to Willson Contreras earlier this winter and seem open to bolstering that area of the roster. Stassi was great in 2020 and 2021 but is coming off a down season at the plate where he hit just .180/.267/.303. O’Hoppe is a highly-touted prospect that came over to the club in the Brandon Marsh trade. He had an excellent year but has played just five major league games and none in Triple-A yet. It’s possible he just hits the ground running this year but it wouldn’t hurt to have another option since not all prospects immediately click at the big league level.

Financially, the club is in record territory but it doesn’t seem as though they’re maxed out. Their previous high for an Opening Day payroll was last year’s $189MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re currently around $206MM for the upcoming campaign, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $220MM. That latter number is somewhat close to the lowest tax threshold of $233MM, though general manager Perry Minasian has said there’s no mandate from ownership to stay under that line.

It’s unlikely that the Angels will ultimately land all or even multiple members of this group, but there’s logic to the varied approach. The club already has star players in Mike Trout, Ohtani and, if healthy, Rendon. What they have lacked in recent years is strong depth to cover for injuries or underperformance elsewhere on the roster. It seems the club has some awareness of that fact and is setting its sights on packing the roster with various quality players so that cavities don’t develop throughout the year. Speaking of Rendon, Heyman reports that he’s feeling fantastic. He was excellent for the Angels in 2020, the first year of his deal with the club. He hit .286/.418/.497 for a wRC+ of 152. However, injuries have limited him to just 102 games combined over the past couple of seasons, with diminished production when on the field. If his health cooperates, he could be a difference maker for the club this year, but it also seems like they’re planning to have plenty of fallback options around the roster. It will be an interesting season for the Angels since it’s the last year before Ohtani is slated to reach free agency, with fans of many rival clubs hoping that he’s available at the trade deadline. For now though, it seems like the club is still committed to putting together a strong team and avoiding that path.

Michael Wacha Seeking Two-Year Deal

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Jan. 30: Wacha has been seeking  a two-year deal worth roughly $30MM, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. That would trail only Justin Verlander and Nathan Eovaldi for the largest two-year deal given to a starting pitcher this winter, and clearly Verlander isn’t a relevant point of comparison in this instance. Generally speaking, second- and third-tier starters who’ve signed two-year pacts in free agency have landed in the $16-25MM range over the past several years.

Jan. 28: Michael Wacha, the top remaining free agent starting pitcher, is seeking a two-year deal, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Wacha is the last remaining starter from MLBTR’s Top 50 list, where he was predicted to take home a two-year, $16MM deal.

So far only the Twins and Orioles have been reported as teams to have shown interest in Wacha, although the Twins’ reported interest came before they acquired Pablo Lopez from the Marlins. The Orioles have seemingly maintained an interest in Wacha throughout the winter, but it doesn’t appear as if talks have ever gotten particularly serious between the two parties, though that can obviously change quickly.

Baltimore does still make a bit of sense as a landing spot for Wacha. They came into the off-season looking for starting pitching, and have so far added only Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in free agency, as well as a recent trade for Oakland’s Cole Irvin, so they could be in the mix for another arm. Speculatively, a return to the Red Sox could make a bit of sense for Wacha, while the Angels could be a fit too if they plan to utilize a six-man rotation this season.

Wacha, 31, is coming off a strong campaign for Boston, where he threw 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball over 23 starts. Secondary metrics weren’t particularly encouraged by Wacha’s work. His 20.2% strikeout rate was below the league average, and he benefited from a career-low .260 average on balls in play as well as a career-high 80.3% left-on-base rate. Teams are also surely wary of that fact that his 2020-21 seasons had amounted to a 5.39 ERA. Nevertheless, it 2022 was a strong season for the veteran right-hander, and even some regression could still make him a solid back-of-the-rotation option for a number of teams.

Wacha’s desire for a two-year deal seems reasonable enough, particularly given how well starting pitchers have tended to fare this winter. There are some injury concerns there which may give a few teams some pause, although a two-year pact is hardly an onerous long-term commitment. He’s landed on the injured list four times due to shoulder injuries throughout his career, including a month-long absence this past season.

It’s possible a number of teams are more interested in Wacha as a one-year option, in which they can see whether or not his 2022 performance can be repeated without having to commit to an additional year. That sort of deal could interest a number of rebuilding teams as well, as a strong start would turn Wacha into a solid trade deadline option. At 31, Wacha is also young enough that he’d still be in a position to land a multi-year deal next winter were he to have to back up his 2022 numbers with another valuable season in 2023.

Quick Hits: Wacha, Hendricks, Profar

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The Orioles have continued their previously reported interest in free-agent starter Michael Wacha, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. There is no indication that talks between the two parties have been particularly serious. Wacha would give the Orioles a second free-agent veteran arm signing, with the club having already added Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in early December.

Wacha, 31, threw 127 1/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA during the 2022 season. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were both below the league average for starters, but he coupled that with a strong 6.0% walk rate. Nevertheless, advanced fielding-independent metrics were not as bullish on his baseline ERA work, with Wacha finishing the season posting a 4.14 FIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Likely contributing to these higher metrics was the 80.3% strand rate that set a career-high by nearly 7% and some luck with balls in play (.260 BABIP).

Notably, 2022 was Wacha’s first season since 2015 in which he threw over 100 innings with a sub-4 ERA. Additionally, 2022 marked the righty’s fourth consecutive season where he was limited to less than 130 innings, excluding the COVID-19 2020 season. Wacha required two separate stints on the injured list during the 2022 season, missing a couple of weeks with left intercostal irritation in May and missing the bulk of July dealing with right shoulder inflammation.

The Birds are projected to start 2023 with a rotation comprised of Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish. Additionally, Mike Baumann and DL Hall, who made their MLB debuts during the 2022 season, figure to have roles with the big league club during the 2023 season, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely earn a call-up as well. Veteran John Means is also projected to return to Baltimore during the 2023 season, having undergone Tommy John surgery in April.

Wacha is the last unsigned starting pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent List and would aid the Orioles in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 AL Wild Card game. MLBTR predicted that Wacha would sign a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.

Some more notes from around the league…

  • Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
  • The Rockies are not one of the teams interested in Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The switch-hitting outfielder finished the 2022 season with a .243/.331/.391 slash line, popping 15 home runs and 36 doubles. Additionally, Profar is ranked by MLBTR as the top remaining free agent and is the lone unsigned position player from the list. MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco recently wrote an article detailing which teams make the most sense for the 29-year-old veteran, with the Rangers, Marlins, and Braves standing out as potential suitors. The Astros had reportedly expressed interest in Profar before re-signing Michael Brantley.

Twins Have Shown Interest In Michael Wacha

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The Twins have shown interest in free-agent righty Michael Wacha, per Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. There’s no indication talks between the two parties have been particularly serious to this point, but Wacha would give Minnesota a veteran arm to help stabilize the back of the rotation if a deal eventually came together.

Wacha, 31, posted a sharp 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022, though he did so with a sub-par 20.2% strikeout rate and a 93.2 mph average fastball that tied his previous career-low. Wacha’s 6.0% walk rate was excellent, but he also rather clearly benefited both from some good fortune on balls in play (.260 BABIP) and a career-high 80.3% strand rate that topped his 72.9% career mark by more than seven percentage points. Fielding-independent metrics generally felt Wacha was solid but not to the extent that his baseline ERA might indicate (4.14 FIP, 4.07 SIERA).

That was Wacha’s first productive season since the 2018 campaign, however. The 2012 first-round pick was a steady contributor with the Cardinals, when healthy, from 2013-18 (741 innings, 3.77 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 4.07 SIERA). However, from 2019-21, Wacha was rocked for a 5.11 ERA in 285 1/3 innings, settling for a series of one-year contracts in free agency while dealing with previously unseen levels of susceptibility to home runs; Wacha averaged a whopping 1.83 home runs per nine innings pitched in that three-year span after previously surrendering just 0.86 long balls per nine frames from 2013-18.

The fit with the Twins is at least a bit muddled, if only due to the number of comparable options Minnesota has in its rotation already. The Twins’ starting staff currently projects to include Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, with depth options including prospects such as Louie Varland, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and Matt Canterino (among others).

That said, each of Gray, Mahle, Maeda and Ober dealt with injury issues in 2022. Gray had multiple IL stints due to hamstring strains. Mahle twice landed on the injured list due to shoulder troubles. Ober, meanwhile, was out roughly half the season due to a groin strain. And Maeda, of course, didn’t pitch in 2022 as he recovered from 2021 Tommy John surgery. Given that protracted layoff and a complete lack of innings in ’22, Maeda figures to have his workload monitored in 2023.

Adding Wacha to the fold would provide some injury insurance, though Wacha himself comes with a lengthy injury history. He’s been on the injured list four times due to shoulder injuries in his decade-long MLB career, including an absence spanning more than a month just this past season. He’s also been sent to the injured list by oblique and intercostal strains, patellar tendinitis in his left knee and a hamstring strain. Most of the injuries were overcome in relatively short order, but a 2019 oblique strain and a stress reaction in his shoulder back in 2014 did result in stints on the 60-day IL.

A signing of Wacha or any other veteran starter would give the Twins another capable arm to help piece together the starting staff, but it could also further embolden the front office to pursue upgrades on the trade market. Much of Minnesota’s offseason hinged on its efforts to re-sign Carlos Correa, and while that ship perhaps hasn’t technically sailed just yet — Correa and the Mets have yet to announce a deal while working through concerns on the infielder’s physical — it’s decidedly unlikely he’ll return. In the meantime, the majority of the game’s top free agents signed elsewhere, leaving few alternatives for the Twins to pursue now that they’ve missed out on their top target.

The Twins have signed catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielder Joey Gallo, so they haven’t been completely dormant to this point in the winter. Still, there’s a need for further upgrades at various spots on the roster. Just as signing Gallo seemed to further create the possibility of a trading one of the organization’s many left-handed-hitting outfielders, an addition in the rotation could lead to the possibility of a trade involving some of that pitching depth.

As far as payroll is concerned, the Twins can afford virtually any free agent or trade target they like at this point. Byron Buxton, Gray, Gallo, Vazquez, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Maeda are guaranteed a combined $67.625MM in 2023, and the Minnesota’s projected arbitration salaries add up to just under $32MM. Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t particularly close to the more than $140MM they spent on 2022 payroll.

It’s been a generally quiet offseason with regard to Wacha, as the Orioles have been the only other publicly linked team to the veteran righty. However, he’s one of the few remaining free-agent starters who’s coming off a solid season, joining Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and Zach Davies in that regard. At this point, Wacha is arguably the top free-agent starter remaining based on his combination of age and track record, so it’s easy to envision his market picking up some steam in the weeks ahead.

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?

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With Nathan Eovaldi agreeing to a deal with the Rangers, the top remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market (per MLBTR’s rankings) is Michael Wacha. In fact, Wacha is the only remaining starting pitcher left from the Top 50 free agents.

As things stand, the Orioles are the only known team to have checked in on the 31-year-old, who’s coming off his best season in a while for the Red Sox. Wacha made 23 starts for Boston last season, working to a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings. That mark did come with a fairly pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate, and a solid 6% walk rate. Further, his .260 opponent BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune was involved, and sure enough Wacha’s FIP sat at 4.14 for the season. Nonetheless, it was a far more improved showing than in recent times for Wacha.

Between 2020-21, Wacha tossed 158 2/3 innings for the Mets and Rays, working to a 5.39 ERA. Those two seasons came with better strikeout rates, but his HardHit% were comfortably the highest of his career, as were his home run rates.

Wacha was once a highly touted prospect in the Cardinals system. Drafted 19th overall in 2012, Wacha made his big league debut as a 21-year-old in 2013. Over his first three seasons, he’d toss 353 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, and picked up the 2013 NLCS MVP award for his efforts in that series against the Dodgers. He was never a big strikeout pitcher, but kept the ball on the ground enough, limited the walks and induced enough soft contact to be a highly effective starter.

Those three seasons turned out to comfortably be Wacha’s best, and since the 2016 campaign he’s hurled 800 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. He’s signed one-year deals the past three seasons, but that solid campaign last season could well see him get a modest two-year guarantee this winter. MLBTR predicted a two-year $16MM pact for Wacha and there certainly seems a good chance he matches that at least, particularly given how well starting pitching has done in free agency this winter.

As for who could be interested, the Orioles are not only the only reported team to have checked in (though there have surely been others), but they do make a lot of sense as well. They have been linked to a number of mid-tier starters this winter, and signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM pact. Still, the backend of their rotation has a few options but most are light on MLB experience and adding someone like Wacha would provide them with a bit more stability.

The Angels and Padres were both linked to Eovaldi before he signed with the Rangers, so it makes sense to take a look at them as possible fits for the next best option. The Angels have a pretty solid five-man rotation, with Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson at the top, and southpaws Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding it out. LA has often worked with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload though, and Wacha could fit in nicely as another starting option for them.

The Padres, too, appear to have the foundations of a starting five in place, but like the Angels could do with a sixth option. Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are locked in to the first three spots, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo penciled in to fill out the rotation. Reports have suggested San Diego plans to utilize the latter two as starters, but both have typically worked as relievers recently, so adding Wacha could give them some insurance against those two failing to lockdown a starting spot.

A return to Boston could also be an option. They do have Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock lined up to handle the starting duties. Yet Sale and Paxton have had a wretched run of injuries (and the team is reportedly listening to offers on Sale), while Whitlock has fared much better in the bullpen. Youngster Brayan Bello is also an option to join the rotation at some point, so there’s not a clear need to add someone like Wacha, but it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he did wind up back in Boston.

While those three teams all have ambitions to compete in 2023, Wacha could also be a fit on rebuilding teams. Even if it requires a two-year deal to sign him, a rebuilding club could hope that he builds off his solid 2022 campaign and turns himself into a valuable trade chip either at the deadline or next winter. At worst, it’s unlikely it’d be an onerous commitment to sign him and even if he doesn’t pitch himself into a trade chip he could still work as an innings-eater for a rebuilding team with a younger roster.

In that case, perhaps a team like the Reds could be amenable to bringing him in if the price is right. Luis Cessa is the veteran in the Reds’ rotation as things stand, but he’s typically worked as a long reliever. Outside of Cessa, it’s a young rotation for all of uncertainty, and adding a veteran like Wacha could solidify things and take a bit of the pressure off their younger arms.

There’s a fair few other possible fits, and any of the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox could make some sense. Where do you see Wacha signing this winter?

Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

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With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3

Orioles Interested In Michael Wacha

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The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Michael Wacha, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re the first team of the offseason known to be checking in on the right-hander, who’s coming off a decent season with the division-rival Red Sox.

Wacha, 31, inked a one-year, $7MM deal with Boston last offseason. He’d posted a 5.05 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rays the year before and hadn’t found much success keeping runs off the board since 2018. The Red Sox nevertheless took on a flier on a bounceback, placing their faith in a fastball that sat around 94 MPH and a swinging strike rate that had been north of 11% in each of the preceding two seasons.

The former first-round pick rewarded them with his most successful year in a while. Wacha made 23 starts and tallied 127 1/3 innings, pitching to a quality 3.32 ERA. He landed on the injured list twice — first with a left intercostal strain, then with inflammation in his throwing shoulder — but generally kept runs off the board when healthy. Wacha allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his outings while holding opponents to a .233/.283/.410 line in 515 plate appearances.

Strong control helped him keep runners off base, as he walked only 6% of opponents. Wacha has established himself as a quality strike-thrower, but there also seems to have been a decent amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit just .260 on their balls in play against him, the lowest BABIP he’d allowed in five years. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball percentage were each slightly lower than the league average.

The Texas A&M product also saw minor dips in his swinging strike number and velocity. He generated whiffs on 9.5% of his pitches, below his 2020-21 levels. Wacha’s average fastball speed also lost a tick, dipping from 93.8 MPH in 2021 to an even 93 MPH this year. ERA estimators like FIP (4.14) and SIERA (4.07) each pegged his true talent a bit north of 4.00 — still useful production, but not quite as impressive as his actual ERA might suggest.

Even if Wacha’s run prevention regresses somewhat, he’s a sensible target for clubs seeking rotation help. Wacha has ten seasons of MLB experience under his belt, and he carries a 4.05 ERA in over 1100 career innings. Other than a brief spike in walks towards the end of his time in St. Louis, he’s shown consistently plus control. That kind of reliability makes him a fine fit at the back half of a contending club’s rotation.

The Orioles entered the offseason searching for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only Baltimore pitcher to top 23 starts this past season, and the O’s bought out an $11MM club option at year’s end to send him to the open market. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells and Spenser Watkins all posted serviceable or better ERA’s over 15-plus starts, but Voth was the only one with a strikeout rate around league average. Kyle Bradish had a decent strikeout rate but an ERA pushing 5.00. Mike Baumann and DL Hall joined Bradish in seeing some MLB action as rookies, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez may well have debuted this year if not for a lat injury.

The O’s had a number of internal options to compete for jobs on Brandon Hyde’s starting staff, but everyone in the mix had either limited or no track record of MLB success. Baltimore thus brought in Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal last month to add some veteran stability. They’re still expected to add another starter, and Wacha’s one of the remaining options in a free agent class that’s rapidly thinning. MLBTR predicted Wacha for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason. He’s one of five unsigned starting pitchers who’d secured a spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, alongside Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski.

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