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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Tanner Houck To Undergo Back Surgery

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TODAY: Houck will indeed undergo back surgery next week, Cora confirmed to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford and other reporters.  The current expectation is that the right-hander will be ready for the start of Spring Training.

SEPTEMBER 2, 3:37pm: After meeting with another specialist, Houck will likely undergo back surgery, Cora announced to reporters (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).

11:35am: What the Red Sox hoped would be a fairly short-term injury for righty Tanner Houck could actually prove to be a season-ender.  Houck, who was placed on the 15-day injured list in early August due to lower back inflammation, has yet to resume baseball activity, and manager Alex Cora tells reporters there’s a “good chance” he could miss the remainder of the year at this point (link via MassLive.com’s Chris Smith). Houck met with a back specialist yesterday, and there will be more information on his outlook in the near future.

Houck was diagnosed with a disc issue in his back not long after being placed on the injured list, and while he was slated to throw a bullpen session earlier in the week, that didn’t happen due to continued discomfort. Cora, Smith notes, said he was not sure whether Houck would require surgery to address the issue.

Prior to his injury, Houck had stepped up as a key late-inning option for the Sox, going 8-for-9 in save opportunities and adding a hold along the way. Since a May 15 shift to the bullpen, Houck has pitched to a pristine 1.49 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate and a huge 58.2% ground-ball rate in 36 1/3 innings. Houck, John Schreiber, Garrett Whitlock and Matt Strahm have been Boston’s most reliable bullpen arms in 2022, though Whitlock has also spent time in the rotation and Strahm and Houck have now both missed substantial time due to injury.

The 26-year-old Houck has long rated as one of the better prospects in the Red Sox organization, and through parts of three big league seasons, he’s demonstrated the reasoning behind that evaluation. The 2017 first-rounder has tallied 146 big league innings, dating back to 2020, and carries a 3.02 ERA with a strong 27.6% strikeout rate, a roughly average 8.7% walk rate and an above-average 49.3% grounder rate. He’s worked both as a reliever and as a starter, finding success in both roles (3.22 ERA as a starter, 2.66 as a reliever).

While this wouldn’t be the manner in which the Sox hoped to see his first full big league season end, Houck has largely solidified himself as a key piece of the team’s long-term plans — whichever role he ultimately occupies. Houck will finish this season with one year and 100 days of Major League service time, giving him five additional seasons of club control (and another two years before he even reaches arbitration).

The Sox will see Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill all reach free agency at season’s end — Wacha recently told the Globe’s Peter Abraham that he’d “definitely like to” re-sign in Boston — which could create a potential rotation vacancy for Houck. At the same time, there’s plenty of fluidity in the relief corps, particularly with Strahm also set to reach the market as a free agent. Houck could help stabilize the bullpen as well. That flexibility is a boon for the front office as they look to revamp the staff this winter, broadening the options they can explore both via free agency and trade.

Red Sox Activate Michael Wacha From 15-Day Injured List

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2:54PM: The Sox officially reinstated Wacha from the IL.  Left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

9:05AM: The Red Sox will activate right-hander Michael Wacha from the 15-day injured list today, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe).  Wacha will get the start for tonight’s game against the Yankees.

Right shoulder inflammation sent Wacha to the IL on July 5, so between this absence and a previous 15-day stint in May due to left intercostal irritation, Wacha has missed a good chunk of his first season with the Red Sox.  When he has been able to pitch, the righty has been arguably Boston’s best hurler, with a 2.69 ERA over 70 1/3 innings.

This performance is tempered by a 4.56 SIERA, a .240 BABIP and a slate of unimpressive Statcast metrics, so some regression seems almost inevitable.  However, in terms of pure bottom-line numbers, 2022 represents a very nice bounce-back for Wacha after he posted a 5.11 ERA in 285 1/3 innings in 2019-21.  The Sox have already gotten a decent return on their one-year, $7MM investment in Wacha during the offseason, and if he can continue to defy the metrics, he could be a key arm for the Red Sox down the stretch.

The starting rotation has been a question mark for the Sox virtually all season, with injuries and/or inconsistency plaguing just about every pitcher on the roster.  Chris Sale’s season-ending wrist surgery means that Boston won’t ever truly have its first-choice starting five all going at the same time, but Wacha’s return at least represents one more piece of the puzzle.  Wacha joins Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, and Kutter Crawford in the rotation, with Josh Winckowski likely to return to bullpen work, and James Paxton tentatively set to make a September return after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2021.

Red Sox Notes: Paxton, Wacha, Houck, Sale

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Red Sox lefty James Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, seems to finally be healthy enough to start ramping things up. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the southpaw recently faced lived hitters and is expected to throw in a simulated game this Friday. The next step after that will be for him to start a rehab assignment, which would be followed by a return to the big league club.

“He’s in such a good spot now that it’s not about the arm,” manager Alex Cora said about Paxton. “It’s about the pitch mix, the breaking ball, all that. When those guys start talking about that, you know they’re over the hump.”

Paxton’s form down the stretch will be very significant both for him and the club, regardless of where they are in the standings. Boston signed him to a unique contract over the offseason, knowing that he was rehabbing from TJS and unlikely to contribute over a full season. Paxton is making a $6MM salary this year and then the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM options for 2023-2024 at the end of the season. If the team declines to pick up what is effectively a two-year, $26MM deal, Paxton can decide to trigger a $4MM player option for 2023 or decline it and return to free agency. Those decisions will surely depend upon what Paxton shows in the coming weeks.

The Red Sox could use some contributions from Paxton, both in this season and in the future, given the tumult of their rotation. Just about every starter in Boston’s rotation has either landed on the IL or been optioned to the minors at some point, with Nick Pivetta being the only constant. Michael Wacha has only made 13 starts this year due to a pair of IL stints, one for an intercostal strain and the other for shoulder inflammation. However, Cotillo reports that he threw 4 1/3 innings in a rehab start last night and should return to the big league club for his next outing. That should give the club a boost, as they look to finish strong in the AL Wild Card race. They are currently five games behind the Rays for the last spot.

Looking farther into the future, each of Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are slated to reach free agency this offseason, which is part of the reason why those Paxton options might seem alluring, even if he only returns for a brief period of time. The 2023 Boston rotation might also take a hit from the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale. The lefty was once one of the most dominant arms in the game but has hardly pitched in recent years due to a cavalcade of injuries. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and limited him to nine starts last year. He began this year on the IL due to a stress fracture in rib cage, returning to throw one five-inning start before his second start was cut short after less than an inning when a comebacker broke his finger. While on the IL, he managed to get hurt again, falling off a bicycle near his home and breaking his wrist, eliminating any hopes of his return this year.

Due to all that, Sale will go into the offseason having thrown just 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons, which raises questions about how much the Red Sox can rely on him for the rotation next year. “We obviously need to think through what that means as far as planning out a full season with him not having carried very much of a workload the last few years,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “If we want to play 162-plus we have to build our team to have a lot of starting pitching depth,” he added. With Hill, Wacha and Eovaldi headed to the open market and Sale and Paxton unknown wild cards at this point, there’s plenty of uncertainty hanging over Boston’s future rotation.

Turning back to the present season, the Sox placed reliever Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with back inflammation yesterday, Cotillo relays, which will deliver a hit to the bullpen. Houck has a 3.15 ERA on the year, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. That’s included many high-leverage spots, as Houck as eight saves and one hold on the year. He’ll join Tyler Danish, Matt Strahm and Josh Taylor among Boston relievers currently on the injured list. The bullpen is so banged up that Cora told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, that Hill might see some action out of the ’pen, despite having just started yesterday’s game.

Red Sox Place Brayan Bello On Injured List, Activate Matt Barnes

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The Red Sox have placed right-hander Brayan Bello on the 15-day injured list due to a left groin strain. Boston also optioned righty Kaleb Ort to Triple-A Worcester, with recently-acquired first baseman Eric Hosmer and relievers Matt Barnes and Darwinzon Hernández taking the active roster spots. Barnes is back from the 60-day injured list. He takes the 40-man roster spot of Jackie Bradley Jr., who was released this morning.

Bello left yesterday’s outing against the Astros after suffering the groin issue. The strain is apparently significant enough to keep him out of action for at least a couple weeks, thinning Boston’s rotation depth. One of the club’s top pitching prospects, Bello has made his first five MLB appearances (three starts) this season. He’s been tagged for an 8.47 ERA through 17 innings, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his heater and has induced ground-balls at a huge 65.5% clip.

The Sox have been forced to lean on Bello a bit in recent weeks, as they were concurrently without Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha due to injury. Sale will be out for a while due to a finger fracture, but the Sox recently welcomed back Eovaldi and Hill. Wacha is set to toss a four-inning rehab start today, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive relayed yesterday (Twitter link). That suggests he’s likely to be back with the big league club relatively soon, perhaps next week.

Barnes has been out since the end of May with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The two-month absence capped what had been an awful start to the season for the veteran righty, who has struggled since signing a two-year contract extension last July. He owns a 7.94 ERA across 17 innings on the season, striking out a personal-worst 17.3% of opponents against an untenable 14.8% walk rate. It’s possible the shoulder soreness played a role in that production, however. Manager Alex Cora figures to work Barnes back in lower-leverage situations, but he’s only a year removed from functioning as a key late-game option. Getting Barnes anywhere close to his previous level would be a key boost for a Boston team that ranks 24th in bullpen ERA (4.21).

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

Red Sox Select Michael Feliz; Likely To Activate Chris Sale On Tuesday

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The Red Sox announced that reliever Tyler Danish has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm strain. To take his place on the active roster, they have selected the contract of righty Michael Feliz. They already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster due to Hansel Robles being designated for assignment recently. However, the news from today that’s most likely to intrigue fans of the club relates to the starting rotation.

The Red Sox are dealing with a rash of injuries to their starting staff, with Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock and Rich Hill all currently on the injured list. Michael Wacha also missed his last start due to a “heavy arm,” creating another hole in the rotation. Manager Alex Cora tells reporters, including Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald, that the extra rest hasn’t led to Wacha’s arm recuperating as hoped, meaning it’s possible he joins the others on the IL.

This will have a few ripple effects for the team, one of which seems to be Chris Sale being activated to make his season debut on Tuesday. “He’ll pitch Tuesday,” Cora said, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. “Somewhere, he’ll pitch Tuesday, but there’s a good chance he’ll pitch with us.” Sale threw 72 pitches in his most recent rehab start, and the club is apparently pleased enough with the results that he could be back in the big leagues in a few days.

The return of Sale is tremendous news for Red Sox fans, as he has missed the entirety of the season thus far due to a stress fracture in his rib cage. It’s been a few years since the club has seen Sale at his best, as he missed the entirety of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery. Though he was able to return and throw 42 2/3 innings last year, the results were diminished, at least when compared to his elite levels of previous years. A 3.16 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate are still very good numbers, but Sale’s ERA was under 3.00 in 2017 and 2018, along with strikeout rates above 36%. Since those 42 2/3 innings are all he’s tallied since the end of the 2019 campaign, it’s fair to wonder what level the 33-year-old will be at in his return. Still, even if there’s a bit of rust, he’ll surely be a welcome addition to the banged-up pitching staff.

Another side effect of the mounting injuries is that Brayan Bello seems to be getting another turn in the rotation. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke about the matter on The Greg Hill Show (hat tip to Ken Laird of WEEI) and said that Bello will not be moved to the bullpen. Cora then told Browne today that Bello is likely getting another start this week. The injury situation created the opportunity for the prospect to get called up, though he had an uninspiring debut against the Rays, allowing four earned runs in four innings, with six hits, three walks and just two strikeouts.

There is some help on the way, however, as Browne relays that both Whitlock and Eovaldi are starting rehab stints in the coming days. Though Eovaldi will return to the rotation once healthy, Whitlock seems ticketed for bullpen work. Cora told reporters a few days ago that Whitlock was “pretty much likely” going to be coming on in relief in his return.

All things considered, it seems the outlook for the staff should improve in the weeks to come. However, the one bit of bad news in all this relates to Danish. He has been quietly solid in his first MLB action since 2018, throwing 31 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year with a 4.02 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. The Sox haven’t provided any estimates on his expected absence, though the fact that his injury is being described as a forearm strain is potentially ominous. A forearm strains is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, though that’s not true in all cases.

As for Feliz, 29, he was signed to a minor league deal in the offseason and has spent the year in Triple-A thus far. He’s made 18 appearances, which includes three starts, though they were of the opener variety, never logging more than two innings in any of them. Through 24 2/3 innings on the season, he has a 3.28 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate.

With a record of 45-37, the Sox are 14 games behind the Yankees in the AL East but are still in possession of one of the three Wild Card slots. With less than four weeks to the August 2 deadline, they will surely be on the lookout for available arms to help them bolster this snakebitten group.

Red Sox Recall Kutter Crawford, Option Connor Seabold

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The Red Sox swapped a pair of right-handers between Boston and Triple-A Worcester this morning, the team announced, optioning Connor Seabold and recalling Kutter Crawford. Seabold had made his third big-league start yesterday against the Cubs, tossing four innings of one-run ball.

The move gives manager Alex Cora an extra arm while his team deals with a spate of injuries in rotation: in addition to the long-term absences of Chris Sale and James Paxton, Rich Hill, Nathan Eovaldi, and Garrett Whitlock are all on the 15-day IL while Michael Wacha is, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, dealing with a dead arm that may require an IL stint. Because optioned players are allowed to return at any time if replacing a player headed to the IL, Seabold could return to start late in the week should Wacha — who last pitched on June 28th — need more time.

While Cora might have to make some uncomfortable decisions in the short term, there could be help on the way. While neither Whitlock nor Eovaldi is yet close to returning, Sale, who’s yet to pitch this season due to a stress fracture in his ribcage (and who’s covered only 42 2/3 innings since 2019, all of them last year), has already made one rehab start and is scheduled for another on Wednesday, and consensus top 100 prospect Brayan Bello appears likely to make his big-league debut the same day after Cora told reporters (including McCaffrey) that he’s probably the best option currently pitching in Worcester.

After hitting a bit of a rough patch in his first taste of Double-A last year, the 23-year-old Bello has tossed 85 innings 2.33 ERA ball across 15 appearances (14 starts) between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester. His excellent ERA is backed up by a stellar strikeout rate (33.7%), though his walk rate (9.8%) leaves a bit to be desired.

Crawford, who’s struggled while shuttling between both Boston and Worcester and bullpen and rotation this year, could also be an option to start, though he likely won’t be Cora’s first choice. In 21 2/3 career big-league innings, he’s logged an unsightly 7.89 ERA (5.66 FIP). He has consistently missed bats at every level in the minors, however, and given the tattered state of the Boston pitching staff, he may well get an extended opportunity to do so in the bigs.

Pitching Notes: Kershaw, Wacha, Hernandez, Mayza

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There had been some indication that Clayton Kershaw could be cleared to throw a bullpen session today, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) that such a session won’t take place.  Some right SI joint inflammation sent Kershaw to the 15-day injured list on May 13, and while the star left-hander has started playing catch, it appears he is still some time off from a formal bullpen.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Kershaw will miss an overt amount of time, but as Ardaya notes, it does rule out any chance that Kershaw will miss only a 15-day minimum.  While he isn’t dealing with an arm injury this time, Kershaw has dealt with enough health issues in recent years that any sort of IL stint is a concern, though the former three-time NL Cy Young Award winner has continued to pitch very well when he has been able to take the mound.

Here’s the latest on some other pitching-related injury situations from around the league…

  • Michael Wacha is slated to return from the 15-day injured list and start Friday’s game, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other reporters.  Friday is the first eligible day for Wacha’s activation, after being retroactively placed on the 15-day IL on May 5 due to left intercostal irritation.  After a few rough seasons, Wacha looked to be on pace for a bounce-back performance in his first five starts with Boston, with an excellent 1.38 ERA over 26 innings.
  • At the minor league level, Cora said left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez will be “down for a while” after suffering an MCL sprain in his right knee.  Hernandez has a 5.95 ERA over 19 2/3 innings with Triple-A Worcester, continuing his career-long pattern of recording plenty of strikeouts but also far too many walks.  Over 78 2/3 career big league frames with the Red Sox, Hernandez has a 3.66 ERA and 33.6% strikeout rate, but also a whopping 17.6% walk rate.
  • The Blue Jays placed Tim Mayza on the 15-day IL Monday due to left forearm inflammation, and GM Ross Atkins told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters today that the initial indication is that Mayza’s issue is localized within his forearm and not his elbow.  Mayza is seeing another doctor today just to be doubly safe, as the reliever underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2019 and also missed 10 days last season due to elbow inflammation.  Since returning from that TJ procedure, Mayza has a 3.14 ERA over 66 innings out of Toronto’s bullpen in 2021-22.

Red Sox Place Michael Wacha On 15-Day Injured List

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The Red Sox are placing right-hander Michael Wacha on the 15-day injured list due to left intercostal irritation, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The move is retroactive to May 5. Fellow righty Tyler Danish has been recalled in a corresponding move. (Twitter links)

This is yet another in a series of frustrations for the Red Sox so far this year. After a 92-win campaign a year ago, the club is off to a dismal 10-18 start here in 2022, dropping them into the basement of the AL East. They also got some bad news yesterday, when it was reported that Chris Sale and James Paxton have both suffered setbacks in their attempts to rehab from their respective injuries.

Wacha has been one of the few bright spots for Boston this year, as he has an ERA of 1.38 over his first five starts. There might be some good fortune in there, as Wacha’s strikeout rate of 19% and walk rate of 11% are both a bit worse than league average. His surface-level success is probably connected to his unsustainable .162 batting average on balls in play and 94.3% strand rate. Still, it’s a blow to a club that has had little to feel good about over the first month of the campaign. The rotation also lost Rich Hill, who went on the Covid-related injured list recently, though it’s unclear how long he is expected to be out for.

With Wacha being scratched from today’s start, the club gave the ball to Tanner Houck instead. Houck opened the season in the rotation but was gradually usurped by Garrett Whitlock. He’s been piggybacking behind Hill for the past few turns through the rotation but could get more starts now with the recent openings. He was pitching on just two days’ rest today and was only able to throw 39 pitches over 2 2/3 innings but could get further stretched out in the weeks to come. Unless Hill can return soon, the club might need another arm down the line, as they are down to a four-man rotation of Houck, Whitlock Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta. That will do for now, as the club has off-days tomorrow and on Thursday. But after that, they will play ten days in a row, followed by one off-day and then a stretch of ten games in nine days, thanks to a doubleheader on May 28.

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