Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution
The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.
That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.
Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?
Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.
Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.
Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.
With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.
MLBTR Video: Mookie Betts Rumors
Mookie on the move? Jeff Todd has the latest rumors on the Red Sox star, plus thoughts on the Reds’ Pedro Strop signing and the Giants’ interest in Hunter Pence in today’s video.
Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Mookie Betts
5:54PM: “All signs point to a two-team race” between the Dodgers and Padres for Betts, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, and “Major League sources believe that it’s likelier than not that Betts gets traded, potentially in the very near future.” Price might yet be involved in a potential Dodgers deal, though adding Price alongside Betts “might compromise the prospect return for the Sox,” since Los Angeles doesn’t want to absorb much of Price’s contract. On the Padres’ side, they “seem open on just about any other outfielder” than Tommy Pham or Trent Grisham in trade talks. The Diamondbacks were another team linked to Betts in trade rumors, though Speier hears from a source that there was “no real traction” between Boston and Arizona even before the D’Backs acquired Starling Marte, so Arizona seems to be out of the Betts hunt.
7:30AM: With camp fast approaching, teams weighing major trades are surely beginning to feel the pressure. The Dodgers are keeping their cool as they continue to pursue Red Sox star Mookie Betts, Andy McCullough of The Athletic writes (subscription link). But they’re also possibly nearing a decision.
Talks between the coastal giants could well be reaching an inflection point, it seems. McCullough writes that the teams have “approached a resolution” in their talks “in recent days.”
Details of the packages under consideration are limited; as McCullough notes, it’s possible to imagine rather a wide variety of permutations. But the talks — at least, in some variations — do involve high-priced Boston hurler David Price. (Shades of another major trade between these teams?)
As we discussed recently in a poll on the subject, there’s no shortage of pressure on the team to make strides. And the goal is obviously to find a major new performer. But the team also has reason to remain comfortable with its existing talent. No surprise, then, that McCullough indicates the organization isn’t really interested in stretching too far to make a deal.
It’s worth noting, too, that holding back assets for mid-season trades represents a viable alternative strategy. Betts himself could be available then, if he’s not poached first by another club (such as the division-rival Padres). The Dodgers can’t assume they’ll coast to another title, particularly now that the Diamondbacks have compiled such an interesting roster, but there’s some conceptual merit to waiting for mid-season roster holes to open before acting.
Speaking of that aforementioned poll … the results were interesting. Respondents were fairly evenly split as to whether the Dodgers would pull off a blockbuster. Among those that foresee a deal, about half think Betts will indeed land to L.A.
Latest On Padres-Red Sox Talks On Mookie Betts
The chatter on Red Sox star Mookie Betts continues even as the opening of camp draws near. Three NL West organizations are reportedly engaged with the Boston organization on the exceptional right fielder, adding to the intrigue.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune updates the situation from the Padres’ perspective, covering quite a few notable details on the discussions. The Friars are said to be trying to structure a deal around a pair of young MLB-level players: one outfielder (Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor) and one pitcher (Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi).
Supposing that aspect of the prospective arrangement meets with the desires of the Boston front office, there’s still the matter of sorting out the money. As has been reported previously, the Friars wish to offload as much as possible of the Wil Myers contract, in no small part due to the fact that Betts is set to play for $27MM in 2020. But the sides are currently deadlocked on the dollars, with the Sox “offering to assume about half” of the $61MM still owed Myers and the Pads wishing “to eat only about a quarter.”
While a ~$15MM difference is no small matter, that’s not necessarily an unbridgeable gap. (At least, assuming the teams are seeing eye to eye on the other pieces.) But the Red Sox surely don’t want to sell low on a franchise stalwart. And the Padres are understandably wary of over-extending for a rental player.
Among the clubs pursuing Betts, the Padres are in the most speculative competitive position. They’re trying to move out of the NL West cellar and chase down the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. That won’t be an easy feat, even with Betts. While there’d always be a mid-season ripcord if things fall flat, and Betts is all but assured of receiving and declining a qualifying offer at season’s end, it’s questionable whether now is the time to push a bunch of chips in on a purely win-now move.
Latest On Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts trade drama has been one of the prevailing stories of the offseason. In addition to the Red Sox’s recent discussions with the Padres, Boston is also in touch with the Dodgers on a potential Betts deal, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While there’s still no certainty that Boston will eventually pull the trigger, Speier characterizes the club’s willingness to move the 2018 AL MVP as “serious.”
While a Padres’ deal would seemingly require Boston to take on Wil Myers‘ contract as a means of acquiring prospects and reducing their luxury tax hit, Dodgers’ talks would seem to be more straightforward. As Speier notes, L.A. could part with one of their many MLB outfielders to facilitate a trade for Betts, whom they justifiably view as “a rare talent.” Such a scenario could be appealing to Boston, who no doubt hopes to compete in 2020.
Interestingly, Speier adds that the Dodgers could look to explore a package deal involving Betts and a high-priced starting pitcher like David Price. That would help Boston get under the $208MM luxury tax threshold, although Sox owner John Henry recently downplayed the importance of doing so. At the moment, the Sox project for a $236.8MM luxury number, per Roster Resource. Removing Betts’ $27MM and Price’s $31MM respective CBT hits from the books would ameliorate that. That, of course, would certainly make Boston’s roster worse in the short-term, even if they received MLB-ready pieces in any return.
A third NL West team is also at least lurking on the periphery of the Betts’ market. The Diamondbacks, where former Red Sox executives Mike Hazen and Amiel Sawdaye are leading the front office, have interest in the superstar outfielder, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Arizona doesn’t have the resources or farm system of the Dodgers or Padres, perhaps making them a longshot. Still, any team figures to have a strong enough system to reel in Betts, who will hit free agency next offseason. Meanwhile, the Snakes should have a bit of financial flexibility, with a projected season-opening payroll of $114MM that trails their season-ending outlay of $125MM. That alone wouldn’t be enough to make room for Betts’ $27MM salary, although perhaps ownership could bump payroll beyond typical spending levels if it meant landing a unique talent.
If anything is clear from the varying reports, it’s that the situation remains fluid. 70% of MLBTR readers forecasted this week that Betts would open the season in Boston. That’s obviously still a strong possibility. Nothing prevents the Red Sox from holding Betts and reevaluating their situation at the trade deadline; future suitors wouldn’t get the benefit of being able to tag Betts with a qualifying offer if they acquire him in-season (as they would if a deal is swung preseason), but there’d no doubt still be demand for one of the sport’s best players in July.
Latest on Padres And Mookie Betts
The Padres continue to push for another star as they engage in trade discussions with the Red Sox for Mookie Betts and the Pirates for Starling Marte. The newest tidbit comes for MLB Network insider Jon Heyman who tweets that the Padres are more likely to move Luis Patino than MacKenzie Gore. To be clear, Heyman also notes that trading top prospects for one year of Betts doesn’t make intuitive sense for the Padres. They are – at the very least – interested and exploring the cost.
What we can really glean from Heyman’s tweet is more about the internal hierarchy with which the Padres view their system. Though the implication is that the Padres would consider moving Patino for Betts, that’s far from explicit and runs counter to most of the scuttlebutt coming out of San Diego.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have expressed interest in catching prospect Luis Campusano, Baseball America’s #79 ranked prospect, tweets The Athletic’s Dennis Lin. That might be a more reasonable place to start, depending on the money changing hands in any potential deal. Campusano would be a solid get in any deal after putting together a .325/.396/.509 year as a 20-year-old in High-A.
As for Marte, reports over the last couple of days have been conflicting to an almost comical degree. News from the Mets and Padres – the two noted teams of interest – both evoked cooling interest due to asking price. Heyman, meanwhile, reported that the talks have “intensified,” which in trade parlance usually connotes positivity, though literally speaking, intensity doesn’t necessarily imply progress. Speculatively speaking, it appears there may be a little gamesmanship as one side or all three may be doing what they can to push negotiations in their direction.
Padres Discussing Mookie Betts Trade With Red Sox
January 24: Talks between San Diego and Boston regarding Betts are “ongoing,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. The Padres have proposed scenarios that would send Myers, controllable MLB assets and prospects to the Red Sox, though like Acee, he suggests the Padres’ very best prospects haven’t been included in talks. Speier adds that the Padres have been willing to “clear the bar” that was set by last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade between Arizona and St. Louis, wherein the Cardinals sent catcher Carson Kelly, righty Luke Weaver, infield prospect Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick to Arizona.
January 23, 7:34pm: The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.” The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved.
6:29pm: The Padres and Red Sox have had talks about a deal that would send former AL MVP Mookie Betts to San Diego, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (subscription required). Boston’s side of the trade would consist of Wil Myers and “a significant amount of prospect talent,” as per the most recent discussion between the two clubs.
No trade seems close, as “multiple people familiar with the discussions characterized an agreement as unlikely….yet both sides appear to have legitimate interest.” If nothing else, the news indicates that the Red Sox haven’t closed the door on moving Betts prior to Opening Day, despite chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s multiple statements about his belief that Betts will remain in Boston. That said, trade talks doesn’t necessarily contradict Bloom’s comments; naturally he would be open to hearing what other teams have to say, even if he ultimately thinks Betts won’t be dealt since no club would meet the very high asking price he has put on Betts’ services.
That asking price doesn’t appear to be part of these talks with the Padres, which could be why Lin’s sources don’t think a trade will be finalized. As per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the Red Sox were looking to acquire “two high-end prospects” for a trade package that included Betts and David Price, with the trade partner covering “most or all” of the $96MM owed to Price through the 2022 season. Price’s name surfaced in talks with San Diego involving Myers earlier this offseason, though the Padres “seemingly have limited interest in such a scenario,” Lin writes.
Myers is owed $61MM over the next three seasons, and has been an inconsistent performer since signing that six-year, $83MM extension prior to the 2017 campaign. Myers has hit .244/.323/.444 with 59 homers over 1482 PA the last three seasons, good for only a modest 103 wRC+ and 105 OPS+. Myers has generated only 3.0 fWAR over that span due to this middling offensive performance and an increasing lack of defensive value — the Padres’ signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer left Myers bouncing around third base and all three outfield spots without much good glovework at any spot.
In Boston, Myers would probably at least get his old first base job back, as the Sox could deploy youngster Michael Chavis mostly as a second baseman. (Myers could also take over Betts’ spot in right field on days when Chavis is at first base.) There are some past ties between Bloom and Myers, as Bloom was in Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays acquired Myers from the Royals prior to the 2013 season — and, it should be noted, also when the Rays dealt Myers to San Diego in the 2014-15 offseason.
Unless the Sox think a move to Fenway Park would unlock Myers’ bat in a major fashion, taking on Myers’ deal as part of a Betts trade would appear to be something of a curious move for a Boston club that seems to have made an offseason priority (despite the claims of owner John Henry) of reducing or altogether avoiding further luxury tax payments in 2020 after two years of overages. Since a contract’s luxury tax hit is calculated by average annual value, Myers’ $13.833 AAV is far less than the $27MM Betts is owed in 2020, which is also Betts’ final year under contract before hitting free agency.
Despite Betts’ lack of remaining contractual control and his stated desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, moving a superstar like Betts for, essentially salary relief, isn’t the type of move that would go over well with Boston fans. One would figure the Sox are asking for the very best young talents from the Padres’ farm system, though reports from earlier this winter indicated that San Diego wasn’t willing to put the likes of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, and Luis Patino on the table in trade talks.
Other prospects could be under consideration in these Betts talks, as the Padres aren’t hurting for blue chip talent in their deep pipeline. From the Padres’ perspective, even parting ways with a Gore or Patino might be seen as acceptable if it meant swapping Myers for one of the sport’s best players in Betts. The Padres would be much better positioned to contend in 2020 with Betts in their lineup, and even if Betts did leave after the 2020 season, San Diego would stand to recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer (thus partially replenishing their minor league ranks) and they’d still have the benefit of having Myers’ deal off of the books.
MLBTR Poll: Mookie Betts’ Red Sox Future
Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has been one of multiple superstars involved in trade speculation this offseason, joining the likes of Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant. The Betts rumors got especially interesting Thursday when a report indicated the Red Sox and Padres have discussed a swap centering on the 27-year-old. It doesn’t seem there has been a great deal of traction in those talks, but it’s still interesting that Boston seemingly hasn’t closed the door on parting with its franchise player just weeks from spring training.
A couple years ago, the idea of the Red Sox trading Betts would have come off as preposterous. He was a 10-WAR, AL MVP-winning player in 2018 as the Red Sox steamrolled the competition en route to 108 regular-season wins and a World Series title. Neither Betts nor the Red Sox were close to as good last season, but he was still unquestionably one of the majors’ top performers, slashing .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs and 6.6 fWAR.
If the Red Sox had their druthers, Betts would probably be the guy they’d build around. But Betts has publicly expressed a desire to test the free-agent market a year from now. Betts’ uncertain future beyond this season, in which he’ll earn an arbitration-record $27MM salary, as well as the team’s preference to duck the luxury tax have helped open the door for a trade. And if the Red Sox want to upgrade their farm system in the process (which seems to be the case), there may not be a better place to send Betts than prospect-rich San Diego.
The Padres likely have the prospect capital to make a deal happen, but it will be difficult for them or anyone else to get Betts out of Boston. New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said just last week that he expects Betts to open 2020 as a member of the Red Sox. In the wake of the latest Betts trade rumors, though, do you believe he’ll still be on the BoSox roster when the new season starts?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Mookie Betts Open 2020 With Boston?
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Yes 69% (7,774)
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No 31% (3,521)
Total votes: 11,295
Latest On Red Sox’ Asking Price For Mookie Betts
We missed this recent item, but it bears highlighting. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney recently provided some details (Insider link) on the asking price the Red Sox have placed on star outfielder Mookie Betts.
It goes without saying that the Boston organization is requesting quite a bit in return for an opportunity to rent one of the game’s best players. Otherwise, we might already have seen a swap. And chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom may not have been quite so forthright in recently announcing his “expectation” that Betts will remain with the club for 2020.
Olney’s report is most interesting for its indications of the sort of structure the Red Sox would be willing to consider. He writes that the Sox would look to package Betts (and his big upcoming arbitration salary) with veteran hurler David Price (including “most or all” of his remaining $96MM in guaranteed earnings). To acquire those quality but highly compensated veterans, a rival organization would have to part with “two high-end prospects to front the deal.”
Even allowing a wide degree of latitude for interpretation regarding the quality of the talent requested in return, that feels like a steep ask. It’s also an understandable one. Betts may be costly, but he’s also a 27-year-old with a recent 10-WAR season under his belt. The well-rounded, high-end performer might conceivably take a team from plausible contender to division favorite.
The involvement of Price is notable both for what it says of the Red Sox’ valuation of the lefty — it remains rather high — and for what it means for the potential universe of Betts pursuers. All MLB teams could fit Betts into a payroll, even if it meant shuffling the deck to meet their internal targets. But adding that salary and most of the money owed Price in one fell swoop is another thing entirely. Some clubs that might theoretically match up on Betts could be taken out of the picture if Price must indeed be bundled.
It remains to be seen whether there’ll be further talks involving this Betts-Price scenario. Olney notes that the Red Sox could simply carry their young star into the season in hopes that he and others will spur a rebound performance after a laggard 2019 showing. If so, it’ll easily be worth the foregone trade return. If not, there’s always the trade deadline to reconsider, with Betts potentially featuring as a pennant-race-altering figure.
Chaim Bloom On Mookie Betts, CBT
As of late December, the Red Sox reportedly weren’t “actively shopping” right fielder Mookie Betts, even though the superstar has frequented trade rumors this winter. Two weeks later, it seems the team does indeed plan to retain Betts, at least for now. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said this week the Red Sox expect to open 2020 with Betts on their roster, as Rob Bradford of WEEI relays.
“That’s really been my expectation all along,” said Bloom. “I think big picture, and this applies to everything, we’re not doing our jobs if we’re not open to anything that improves our chances to compete as successfully and as often as possible over the course of the next decade. That has kind of been our guiding principle as we have accessed interest in any of our players. But you do that with the expectation that they will be here. And that will certainly be the case with Mookie.”
Even if Betts does stick with Boston into the season, this year’s Opening Day could go down as his last with the franchise. The 27-year-old former MVP is entering his final season of team control, and he’ll likely reel in one of the richest free-agent contracts in baseball history if he gets to the market next winter. Betts has, of course, made it known on multiple occasions that he’s interested in shopping his services around the majors.
For now, despite the turmoil surrounding the organization – which just fired manager Alex Cora – Boston’s roster does look talented enough to push for a playoff spot in 2020. The Red Sox seem intent on doing just that after a down 2019, though it would be exceedingly difficult without their best player, Betts, on the roster. At the same time, trading Betts would presumably restock their pool of young talent to some degree. It may also be the most realistic path for the club to shave off a significant amount of money from its payroll – if that’s part of the plan.
Betts is due to rake in an arbitration-record $27MM this year, while the Red Sox are projected to begin the season with a $237MM competitive balance tax payroll. Losing Betts’ salary would obviously make it far more realistic for Boston to get under the $208MM threshold – a number it’s on track to surpass for the third straight season. Surpassing the mark for a third consecutive year would subject the Red Sox to a 50 percent tax on overages next winter, but it’s highly debatable whether that should be a major concern for deep-pocketed owner John Henry.
Team brass did indicate in September that they’d like to get under the line, though Henry insisted last week that the club’s more focused on competing than slashing payroll. Bloom, meanwhile, said Wednesday that “the goal to get under the CBT is not an end in itself,” adding, “We will attempt to do it in a way that’s consistent with that larger goal.”
Whether Betts will wind up as part of Boston’s long-term picture remains to be seen. If we’re to believe Bloom, though, it appears Betts will stay put for at least the time being.