Paul Goldschmidt

Central Notes: Machado, Cardinals, Reds, Zimmer

By Mark Polishuk | January 13, 2019 at 7:52pm CDT

Could the White Sox now be the favorites to land Manny Machado? Despite whispers of a mystery team being involved in Machado’s market, the Sox, Yankees, and Phillies were known to be the three clubs most heavily pursuing the free agent infielder. However, with the Yankees addressing their infield needs elsewhere and the Phillies perhaps now in the driver’s seat to sign Bryce Harper, it leaves the White Sox as potentially the last team standing for Machado. While things seem to be leaning in the Pale Hose’s direction right now, an industry source tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that “everything is still on the table” in regards to where Machado or Harper could sign. “These guys are still so young (both 26), so if things aren’t what they want they could gamble and take a much shorter deal and try [free agency] again in the near future,” the source speculated.

More from both the AL and NL Central divisions…

The Cardinals have yet to hold any extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, or Michael Wacha, GM Michael Girsch told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other media. All three players are scheduled for free agency next winter, and while negotiations could yet take place later in the offseason, Girsch said “We’ll see how this year goes” in regards to the trio. Since Goldschmidt has yet to play a game in a Cards uniform, it would be very surprising to see him ink an extension before getting a chance to test the open market. As for Ozuna and Wacha, it makes sense for the Cardinals to see how either player bounces back from an injury-marred 2018 before making a long-term commitment. Ozuna was solid but unspectacular last season, hitting .280/.325/.433 with 23 homers over 628 plate appearances while dealing with nagging shoulder issues. Wacha, meanwhile, didn’t pitch after June 20 due to an oblique injury.
If the Reds could only spend their money on either Dallas Keuchel or A.J. Pollock, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon feels the team would choose Keuchel, given the greater need for rotation help. Both players have been linked to the Reds in hot stove rumors this winter, and while Cincinnati has made some notable additions (i.e. Alex Wood and Tanner Roark) to its starting five, it still lacks a top-of-the-rotation arm. Without Pollock or another true center fielder, the Reds could at least make do at the position in the short term, using some combination of Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, and Nick Senzel between the corners. In another question in Sheldon’s mailbag piece, he doesn’t feel Jesse Winker will be an option in center field due to Winker’s lack of range.
Indians outfielder Bradley Zimmer is hoping to beat his recovery timetable as he rehabs from shoulder surgery, telling MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters that “I feel like I’ll be ready for Spring Training.” Zimmer was slated for an eight-to-twelve month absence from baseball activities after undergoing labrum surgery last July, so he feels he is making good progress, while acknowledging that “the timetable is not really in my hands, as far as my progression.” Still, it seems to be a good sign that the former top prospect is looking to hit the field sooner rather than later, especially since the Tribe is sore need of outfield help. Zimmer has just a .237/.300/.370 slash line over 446 PA in the big leagues, though he has already displayed some quality baserunning and slick glovework in his brief time at the MLB level.

NL Central Notes: Goldschmidt, Graveman, Reds, Santana

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 11:50am CDT

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cardinals believe they have a sense of what it would take to extend recently acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as well as the ability to make a “strong, market-right offer” to the slugger. A five-year extension offer from the team “would look something like five-years, $150 million,” per Goold, who suggests that it’s possible that the Cards could tweak an offer to technically be for six years and subsequently include a bump in Goldschmidt’s 2019 salary. All of that, of course, depends on how comfortable Goldschmidt is in betting on himself, how strongly he wants to test free agency and how he takes to his new environs in St. Louis. And, it should also be emphasized, it does not appear that any formal offer has been made at this point. The suggested terms would align closely with the $151MM extension signed by Jose Altuve in Houston last offseason, although Altuve’s new contract begins in his age-30 season, while any deal extending St. Louis’ control of the already 31-year-old Goldschmidt would begin in his age-32 campaign.

Quick Hits: Perez, Luzardo, D’Backs

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2018 at 11:56pm CDT

A few items from around the baseball world as we head into the new week…

“There is interest on both sides for a reunion” between the Indians and left-hander Oliver Perez, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, though Hoynes doesn’t expect a deal (if any) to happen for at least a month. Perez is one of many veteran relievers who may be somewhat stuck in limbo until later in the offseason as teams try to wait out the market, though the southpaw figures to draw another Major League contract based on his strong performance in 2018. After spending Spring Training and the first two months of the season on minors contracts with the Reds and Yankees, Perez landed in Cleveland and posted a 1.39 ERA, 6.14 K/BB rate and an 11.97 K/9 over 32 1/3 innings, posting dominant numbers against both left-handed and right-handed batters. Even expecting some regression, Perez at worst looks like he could be a LOOGY type. Outside of closer Brad Hand, Tyler Olson is the only other left-handed reliever in the Tribe’s pen, so there’s certainly a case for Perez to return.
Left-handed pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo is drawing raves from both inside and outside the Athletics organization, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser writes, leading to increased speculation that he could begin the season on Oakland’s Major League roster. The 21-year-old Luzardo jumped from high A-ball to Triple-A in 2018, posting a combined 2.88 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.3 K/BB rate over 109 1/3 total innings. Those numbers did include a 7.31 ERA over 16 Triple-A frames, however, and two rival scouts felt Luzardo needed a bit more minor league seasoning. (Left unsaid were any service time considerations the A’s might have about gaining an extra year of team control over the top prospect.) On the other hand, Luzardo’s widely-praised poise and makeup makes him seem like a good candidate to at least mentally handle the jump to the big leagues, and his talent could also be too much to ignore. “I don’t see any way he can’t break [camp] with us,” special assistant Grady Fuson said, also favorably comparing Luzardo to several past Athletics arms. “He’s one of the best things to come along here in a while. If you take our own history, he has better stuff than [Mark] Mulder. He’s got better heat than [Barry] Zito. You could kind of compare him to Gio Gonzalez at the same point, but with much, much better command.”
With the Diamondbacks mired in a disappointing season back in August 2016, the Dave Stewart-led front office proposed a five-year rebuilding plan for the team, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan reports (subscription required). Largely compiled by former assistant GM Bryan Minniti, two of the plan’s main components involved trading Paul Goldschmidt and exploring an extension with shortstop Jean Segura, which created an immediate contrast to what the D’Backs actually did when Stewart was replaced by current GM Mike Hazen — Segura was the one dealt as part of a noteworthy trade with the Mariners, while Goldschmidt was kept in the fold for two more seasons, leading the Snakes to a postseason berth in 2017. The piece is well worth a full read for a look at this potential alternate history of Arizona baseball, as Buchanan weighs the pros and cons of whether it would’ve been wiser for the D’Backs to begin a rebuild then as opposed to the semi-retooling that the club has undergone this offseason. Of course, as one source mentioned to Buchanan, Stewart might not have been the best GM to entrust with a rebuild, given how his front office was often criticized for its approach to acquiring and evaluating minor league talent.

Trade Rumors: Rockies, Santana, Castellanos, Jays, Pirates, Realmuto

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2018 at 9:35pm CDT

Before the Phillies traded Carlos Santana to the Mariners as part of the Jean Segura deal, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich told reporters (including The Athletic’s Nick Groke and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that his team had also been in talks about the veteran first baseman. We heard this morning that Colorado was likely to be an interested party if and when the Mariners explore flipping Santana as part of their ongoing fire sale. In other first base news, Bridich also said the Rockies checked in with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt prior to Goldschmidt being dealt to the Cardinals. It seems like it may have been a short conversation, as the D’Backs “made it clear” that Goldschmidt wouldn’t be dealt to the Rockies.

With this reminder that divisional rivalries can still play a big factor in trade talks, let’s take a look at some other deal-making buzz from the Winter Meetings…

As the Mariners continue their teardown, GM Jerry Dipoto said that he has received a lot of calls about outfielder Mitch Haniger, though the team is much less interested in dealing such a controllable and inexpensive asset. “We just weren’t willing to go there. I tell them if you want to blow me away, give it a shot,” Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters. “We’ve had [a] handful of teams try, but they haven’t quite gotten to where we would even consider it.”
The Dodgers have interest in Tigers right fielder Nick Castellanos, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets. Castellanos “is not their highest priority,” however, as L.A. is exploring a wide range of other trade options. MLB.com’s Jason Beck also reported things were quiet on the Castellanos front, suggesting that Detroit could get more interest after some of the free agent hitters start coming off the board. As you might expect for a rebuilding team, the Tigers are open for business on the trade front, with GM Al Avila telling media (including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press) that no player on the 25-man roster is untouchable.
Interest is “significant” in Blue Jays right-handers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters. Despite the buzz, it would be “very difficult” for the Jays to find a good deal for either pitcher. It was a busy day in general for the Jays, who met with representatives from five different teams and five different agencies while exploring various trade and free agent options.
Ivan Nova, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson have all been mentioned as possible trade candidates for the Pirates, though “it’s going to have to be something that makes sense for us in the big picture to have us entertain” offers, GM Neal Huntington told MLB.com’s Adam Berry and other media. The trio will all be free agents after 2019, so it makes sense that Pittsburgh would explore trades if none seem likely to sign extensions or re-sign after the season. That said, since the Bucs are aiming to compete this year, quality players on short-term commitments aren’t necessarily a major issue, even though payroll concerns are always a factor for the team.
With so many teams linked to J.T. Realmuto in trade rumors, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman lists seven teams as having “the best chance to land Realmuto” at this moment. The list includes the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Yankees, even if some of those clubs have denied interest in the Marlins catcher. New York is one such team that has poured cold water on its involvement in the Realmuto talks, though Heyman wonders if the Yankees could only be part of a Realmuto trade if it was a three-team effort.

Astros Notes: Kikuchi, Abreu, Goldschmidt

By Mark Polishuk | December 9, 2018 at 10:17pm CDT

Here’s the latest from Houston…

It doesn’t appear as if the Astros will make a push for Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan reports (subscription required). Such teams as the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, and Padres have been linked to Kikuchi’s services, though there has been speculation that the teams on the west coast may have a bit of an advantage due to geography.
Also from Kaplan’s piece, he details the Astros’ most notable needs heading into the Winter Meetings, namely another starting pitcher and another bat, preferably a left-handed hitter for lineup-balance purposes. (Though GM Jeff Luhnow has said of his hitter search, “We’re not going to be wed to it having to be a lefty or a righty or having it be a specific position.“) Listing a few speculative names who could be potential fits for the Astros, Kaplan opines that Robbie Ray, Michael Brantley, Jose Martinez, Daniel Murphy, or Nelson Cruz could all be possible trade or free agent targets.
The Astros have been in touch with the White Sox about Jose Abreu, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Abreu has been on Houston’s radar before, including at last year’s trade deadline. Latest reports suggest that the Sox may not part with Abreu in the offseason (if at all) since they’d be selling low in the wake of a somewhat disappointing season for the first baseman. Abreu hit .265/.325/.473 with 22 homers over 553 PA for Chicago in 2018, a marked dropoff from the .883 OPS he posted over his first four Major League seasons.
Speaking of first base targets, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Astros included pitching prospects Cionel Perez and J.B. Bukauskas in talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, before Arizona sent Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. MLB.com ranks Perez and Bukauskas 5th and 8th, respectively, in their list of the top 30 prospects in Houston’s farm system, though it could be argued that neither were in the Astros’ true upper tier of young arms. Forrest Whitley, for instance, is a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball, while MLB.com also had Josh James ahead of Perez and Bukauskas in their ranking. Bukauskas cracked the preseason top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com and Baseball America, though an injury-shortened 2018 season dimmed his ranking and recent reports suggested that the Astros may be using Bukauskas as a trade chip. Perez, a 22-year-old southpaw from Cuba, made his MLB debut last season, though between he and Bukauskas, they didn’t have the Major League readiness that St. Louis offered the D’Backs (namely Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly) for Goldschmidt. Still, the Astros’ apparent willingness to give up two controllable young arms for premium talent is an interesting hint about how far they’ll go to make a significant hitting upgrade.

Poll: Grading The Goldschmidt Trade

By Ty Bradley | December 8, 2018 at 4:29pm CDT

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, he of the career .297/.398/.532 line, was one of the most coveted assets on the offseason trade market. After a bitterly disappointing end to the Diamondbacks season, in which the club won just eight out of their final 28 games after staking a claim to top of the division on August 30th, a full-scale shuffling of parts was sure to be in order. The club was almost certainly set to lose ace Patrick Corbin, who this week signed a monster $140MM deal with Washington, plus center-field stalwart A.J. Pollock, who, despite several injury-marred campaigns, posted a robust 14.9 fWAR in his final five seasons with the team. And flimsy depth on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors paired with a system devoid of high-impact talent to offer a mostly inauspicious outlook in seasons to come.

Was it finally to time to cash in on the organization’s most valued trade chip? The answer, in the end, was a resounding “yes”: On Wednesday, the organization finally agreed to a package with the 31-year-old’s most oft-rumored suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals. 25-year-old right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly, 24, are the two most notable pieces going back to Arizona in the deal; Andy Young, a 24-year-old minor league infielder, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick are also part of the return for the D’Backs.

Goldschmidt, of course, is entering the final year of a contract that will pay him just $14.5MM in 2019. His presence figures to move defensive yo-yo Matt Carpenter back to his original home at third base, where the 33-year-old has, encouragingly, graded out as mostly above average with the glove in limited time over the last two years after a series of dreadful campaigns in the middle portion of the decade.

Infielder Jedd Gyorko and 1B/COF Jose Martinez, then, would seem to be left bench-ridden, and could be prime trade chips in the weeks to come. Speculatively, major bullpen upgrades could be in order — as a whole, the unit posted an abysmal 4.50 xFIP and 4.34 BB/9 last season, both of which ranked in the bottom five across the league. Though the departing package was significant, the Redbirds are left with a most prominent feather in their collective cap: with nine big-league-tested starting pitchers in the fold for next season, and a super surplus at catcher — the immortal Yadier Molina, plus top prospect Andrew Knizner — the Cards figure to lose very little in present-day value.

For the Diamondbacks, the return may have eclipsed even their wildest hopes, with one executive reportedly dubbing the package a “boatload.” Weaver and Kelly come with a combined 11 seasons of team control, and each should project around league average in the upcoming campaign. Kelly, a former top 50 prospect, seems especially intriguing — with the offensive baseline at catcher approaching its all-time nadir (catchers slashed a putrid .232/.304/.372 as a whole last season, for an 84 wRC+), the 24-year-old needs only to supplement his sterling defense with marginal offensive production to become an above-average big leaguer.

So, how would you grade this deal for each club?

Cardinals Acquire Paul Goldschmidt

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2018 at 4:07pm CDT

The offseason’s latest blockbuster trade doesn’t involve the exceptionally active Mariners nor any of the five teams in the hyper-aggressive National League East. Rather, both the Cardinals and Diamondbacks have announced that first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been traded from Arizona to St. Louis in exchange for right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young and a Competitive Balance Round B selection in next year’s draft.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote earlier today that the Cardinals have indicated that they want to determine if there’s any momentum in any of their ongoing trade talks this week, heading into the Winter Meetings, noting that those talks included ongoing negotiations with the Diamondbacks regarding their first baseman and perennial MVP candidate.

Goldschmidt, 31, is heading into his final season of club control and stands to earn $14.5MM next season before reaching free agency next winter. The six-time All-Star rebounded from an awful start to the 2018 campaign to finish with a brilliant .290/.389/.533 line through 690 plate appearances.

The Cardinals have been well-known to be in the hunt for a middle-of-the-order bat for a second consecutive offseason, with a reported focus on corner infielders. The addition of Goldschmidt would presumably push Matt Carpenter to third base, with Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong currently lined up to hand shortstop and second base duties.

Last offseason, the Cards sought a similar addition and turned their focus to Marlins slugger Marcell Ozuna. However, a shoulder injury known to be bothering Ozuna at the time proved detrimental to the outfielder’s offensive production, and he finished the season with a fairly pedestrian .280/.325/.433 batting line and 23 home runs — a far cry from his 2017 slash of .312/.376/.548 and 37 homers. If Ozuna is able to bounce back, the Cards can trot out a lineup featuring Goldschmidt, Carpenter and Ozuna — a highly talented trio with potential to comprise one of the more imposing hearts of the order in the Majors.

For the D-backs, the motivation to trade Goldschmidt comes from the slugger’s limited club control, a bloated payroll that had been at franchise-record levels and a desire to restock a thin farm system. Goldschmidt already inked one club-friendly contract with the D-backs and, with the end of that contract in sight, it’s unlikely that he’d sign for anything less than market value this time around. To that end, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks did try to sign Goldschmidt to an extension before trading him but were unable to come to terms (Twitter link).

With the reality that Goldschmidt wouldn’t be signing a new contract firmly set in place, general manager Mike Hazen and his staff moved to acquire more in exchange for Goldschmidt than they’d have stood to gain by allowing him to play out his final season of club control and receive a qualifying offer. The return announced by the two clubs more than meets that description. Both Weaver and Kelly have big league experience and were considered to be among the game’s top 100 prospects before surfacing in the Majors. Young, meanwhile, posted strong numbers between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season, and the Competitive Balance draft pick the D-backs are acquiring is currently slotted in at No. 78 overall (though draft compensation from qualified free agents could potentially alter the exact placement by a matter of a few slots).

Weaver will pitch the bulk of next season at just 25 years of age. A year ago at this time, Weaver looked like a lock for the Cards’ rotation for years to come. He’d posted a 3.88 ERA in 60 1/3 innings at the big league level in 2017, turning in brilliant marks of 10.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9 and a 49.4 percent ground-ball rate. Weaver notched a 3.17 FIP, 2.93 xFIP and 3.29 SIERA in that time and appeared to be one of the National League’s most promising young arms.

The 2018 season, however, saw the former first-round pick take a step back. Weaver totaled 136 1/3 innings with 8.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a diminished 42.4 percent ground-ball rate. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks all hovered in the mid-4.00 range as his hard-hit rate spiked by more than 10 percent. Clearly, Weaver has some adjustments to make, but he’s controllable for another five seasons and, if all pans out well, he could give the Snakes a solid mid-rotation arm for the foreseeable future. He’s the second rotation piece the D-backs have added in as many days, following yesterday’s signing of right-hander Merrill Kelly to a two-year deal on the heels of his breakout in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Kelly, meanwhile, gives the D-backs their potential catcher of the future. The 24-year-old was touted as the heir-apparent to Yadier Molina in St. Louis but has yet to find much success in minimal big league time behind Molina. A former second-round pick, Kelly has batted just .154/.227/.188 in 131 plate appearances at the MLB level, though playing time has been hard to come by for him.

However, Kelly comes to the D-backs with six seasons of team control and a career .278/.373/.416 batting line in 755 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s thrown out 32 percent of opposing base thieves in his minor league career and, according to Baseball Prospectus, has turned in very strong framing numbers and above-average blocking abilities throughout his minor league tenure.

As for Young, the 24-year-old turned in strong numbers last season — albeit against younger competition. In 503 PAs last year, he hit .289/.379/.479 with 21 homers, 13 doubles, three triples and four steals. A 37th-round pick in the 2016 draft, he’s shown quite a bit of versatility by playing second base, third base, shortstop and both outfield corners to this point in his professional career.

The draft pick further solidifies a nice return for Arizona. The No. 78 selection in the 2018 draft came with a $763K slot value — a number that should take an incremental step forward in 2019. The D-backs, then, will not only add a top 80 selection to their draft but an additional $775-800K to their overall draft pool next season.

It’s a steep price for the Cardinals to pay, even if Weaver and Kelly are likelier to become solid regulars than perennial All-Stars. A combined 11 years of control, a top-80 selection in next season’s draft a minor league utility player with solid to-date performances gives Arizona ample opportunity to recoup long-term value. The Cards, however, are dealing from positions of depth — particularly with regard to the starting rotation, where Weaver wasn’t even assured a spot in 2019 due to the glut of quality options the team has amassed. While the team has less depth behind the plate, Molina is signed at a premium rate through the 2020 season, meaning Kelly wouldn’t have been in line for regular at-bats until at least 2021. Beyond that, 2016 seventh-rounder Andrew Knizner has elevated his status in recent seasons and is now considered by MLB.com to be the organization’s No. 5 prospect.

It’s also possible that the Cards secure some long-term value out of this trade. They’ll presumably make their own attempt to hammer out a long-term contract with Goldschmidt and, should those efforts come up short as was the case in Arizona, they’ll be in position to recoup a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft by issuing a qualifying offer to Goldschmidt.

From here, the D-backs figure to shift their focus to finding a trade partner for right-hander Zack Greinke. Unlike Goldschmidt, the motivation to move Greinke will stem from a more financial standpoint, as the former AL Cy Young winner is owed a combined $104.5MM over the next three seasons. While the D-backs are reportedly on the hook for the pro-rated signing bonus on his contract even after a trade (per The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan), that sum only totals $9MM. An acquiring team could, in theory, spare the D-backs a whopping $97.5MM in future salary obligations, although it stands to reason that the D-backs would have to include some cash or take back a fairly notable salary as part of any Greinke deal.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM tweeted that the two sides could be closing in on a trade. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added that there was “momentum” building in trade talks (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted that Goldschmidt would be going to St. Louis.

Latest On Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke

By Steve Adams | November 26, 2018 at 12:23pm CDT

The Phillies and Diamondbacks had recent talks about a trade centered around Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic, but talks crumbled when the Phils tried to include Carlos Santana in the deal. Right-hander Zach Eflin was one of multiple younger players discussed as part of a potential return for Arizona, per Stark.

It’s somewhat of a surprise to see the Phils linked to Goldschmidt. A significant driving factor behind Philadelphia’s effort to move Santana, after all, is to open at-bats for Rhys Hoskins to return to first base. Acquiring Goldschmidt would likely mean that Hoskins would remain in left field, where he ranked as one of the game’s worst defenders at any position. Then again, the Phillies are known to be casting a wide net in an effort to improve at virtually any area of the roster, and plugging Goldschmidt in at first base would make for an immensely improved lineup, even if it meant another year of Hoskins in left field.

Goldschmidt, 31, enjoyed yet another brilliant season in 2018, hitting .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles and five triples. Perennially one of the game’s premier bats, Goldschmidt is owed $14.5MM in 2019 before he’ll reach the open market and become a free agent for the first time in his career next winter. That lack of club control, the presumably enormous cost of an extension and a crowded Diamondbacks payroll have all combined to create the possibility that Arizona moves the face of its franchise this winter.

Turning to another potential suitor, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cards have talked to the D-backs about a trade for Goldschimdt. As Goold explores in great detail, the slugger checks several boxes — the Cards prefer to trade for a bat rather than sign one and are especially interested in corner infielders — but there are question marks as well. He’d only add to a deluge of right-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup, for example, and there is of course no guarantee he’d be willing to sign an extension — something the Cards would be likely to pursue.

While Goldschmidt is the best player the D-backs could move this winter, he’s hardly the only high-profile candidate to change hands. Zack Greinke, too, has emerged as a potential trade candidate, though circumstances surrounding the two are quite different. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the D-backs want young players or prospects back in any Goldschmidt deal — hence the mention of Eflin in Stark’s report — the primary motivation in trading Greinke would be to escape the burden of the three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract (which includes his annual salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts as part of an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out evenly over the duration of the contract). Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract is the largest ever in terms of average annual value and was signed by the previous front-office regime in Arizona. At 35 years of age, the right-hander is still a highly effective pitcher, but it’s understandable that as payroll has risen beyond the organization’s comfort level, the new-look front office is hoping to unload some of that financial burden.

It’s natural to suggest that the D-backs could try to kill two birds with one stone by trading Goldschmidt and Greinke in one franchise-altering blockbuster. Attaching a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber to Greinke’s contract would hold appeal for an acquiring team, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that the D-backs aren’t interested in watering down a return on Goldschmidt by packaging him with Greinke. Rosenthal, in fact, notes that Cardinals already had internal discussions about attempting a trade to acquire both, but they’re cognizant of the fact that they’re on Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Goold tweets that the Cardinals’ inclusion on Greinke’s no-trade list is tied to geographic preferences.

It should be pointed out, too, that while Greinke’s contract is somewhat onerous, it’s not the albatross that many might think. The veteran righty has topped 200 innings in consecutive seasons with virtually identical ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 to go along with above-average strikeout rates, elite control and solid ground-ball tendencies. Were he a free agent, Greinke would still command significant interest on a multi-year deal and would likely be regarded alongside the likes of Dallas Keuchel as perhaps the second or third-best arm available.

He likely wouldn’t top $100MM in total guarantees, but there’s a very real argument that Greinke command $20MM+ annually on a three-year deal — as Jake Arrieta did last winter. Arrieta, of course, was a three years younger at the time than Greinke is now, but he was also coming off a worse season. And given the fact that the soon-to-be 39-year-old Rich Hill is entering the third season of a three-year free-agent contract, there’s recent precedent of a pitcher in his mid-to-late 30s securing a three-year guarantee. The exact valuation of Greinke will vary from team to team, but his contract may “only” an overpay of around $30-35MM relative to what he could realistically seek on the open market.

Olney’s Latest: Goldy, Yanks, Astros, Pollock, Brantley, Cutch, Mariners

By Connor Byrne | November 25, 2018 at 8:26am CDT

It’s unclear whether the Diamondbacks will trade their franchise player, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) hears from rival evaluators that they are “intent” on dealing the 31-year-old. While Goldschmidt has consistently been one of the majors’ best players during his career, it’s unlikely the Diamondbacks would receive a significant haul in exchange for his final year of team control, observes Olney, who notes that most contenders aren’t seeking a first baseman. But St. Louis and Houston continue to show a good amount of interest in Goldschmidt, per Olney, which jibes with a previous report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Olney adds that rival clubs believe the Astros have seemingly tried to move young right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, their eighth-ranked prospect at MLB.com, in trade talks. Similarly, the Yankees were “pushing” left-handed pitching prospect Justus Sheffield in Goldschmidt discussions, Olney reports. Sheffield’s no longer in the picture for New York, though, as it traded him to Seattle this week in a deal for lefty James Paxton.

Back to Houston, which has been shopping near the top of the market for free-agent outfielders, according to Olney, who lists A.J. Pollock, Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley among their targets. Unless the Astros deem soon-to-be 22-year-old prospect Kyle Tucker ready for a full-time role, they have an opening in the outfield, where George Springer and Josh Reddick are their only obvious starters. Signing Pollock, a center fielder, would enable them to move Springer back to a corner after he spent the majority of 2017-18 in center. Pollock’s likely to rake in the biggest payday of the trio, though; further, given that Pollock comes with a qualifying offer attached, adding him would also cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick in 2019 and $500K in international pool space.
The Mariners have been the most active team on the trade market this offseason, having already dealt Paxton and catcher Mike Zunino. With aggressive general manager Jerry Dipoto at the helm and the M’s desire to take a step back in 2019, more trades involving their veterans are likely on the way. However, it continues to look as though the Mariners will keep their two top players, outfielder Mitch Haniger and closer Edwin Diaz. It would take overwhelming offers for the Mariners to seriously consider moving either Haniger or Diaz, Olney tweets. Both stars are controllable for the next four years, including another pre-arbitration season apiece.

Cardinals Notes: Goldschmidt, Outfield, Bader

By Ty Bradley | November 24, 2018 at 2:50pm CDT

The Cardinals, who in the past two seasons alone have jettisoned a near roster’s worth of offensive talent, are still searching for a reliable middle-of-the-order presence, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. On the back of landmark drafts under the direction of former Scouting Directors Jeff Luhnow and the now-imprisoned Chris Correa, St. Louis, by the middle of the decade, found themselves dripping with projected regulars across the diamond. Though a trimming of the surplus was surely in order, the current offensive version of the Senior Circuit’s most distinguished franchise is still left, aside from the ever-reliable bat of corner infielder Matt Carpenter, without its coveted level of thump. Franchise officials, at this juncture, could be lamenting the ’18 dumpings of Tommy Pham (.343/.448/.622 after a midseason trade to the Rays) and Luke Voit (187 wRC+ with the Yankees), but seem to have a number of potential targets in mind as the offseason approaches its zenith.

The club “has spoken” with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, says Goold, though the 31-year-old might be a disjointed fit on an already-unbalanced roster. The club’s second-best hitter in 2018, by a wide margin, was former minor league journeyman Jose Martinez, whose recent forays in the outfield have been mostly disastrous. Goldschmidt, for his part, hasn’t played a single inning at a position other than first base in his MLB career thus far, and the club’s corner-outfield spots are already manned by high-profile acquisitions in Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom is owed nearly $48MM over the next three seasons. Former top-40 prospect Tyler O’Neill, who showed promise, if an undiscerning eye, last season, is also in the mix, though the club could certainly dangle one (or perhaps two) of the four to make a room for the all-world bat of the six-time All-Star.
Once the envy of executives across the league, the Redbird farm has thinned considerably in recent seasons, though it’s continued its longstanding tradition of churning out under-the-radar performers. Ben Frederickson, also of the StL Post-Dispatch, offers a wonderful overview of former third-round pick Harrison Bader, who broke out to the tune of 3.5 fWAR on the back of sterling center-field defense this season. Quotes from team president Bill DeWitt III aggressively paint the 24-year-old as an “emerging star,” though caution should certainly reign in the case of the University of Florida product. Bader, after all, did struggle in consecutive AAA stints in 2016 and ’17, and posted just a .251/.317/.378 line against right-handers last season while whiffing in over 31% of his plate appearances.

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