Paul Goldschmidt

Cardinals Health Notes: Mikolas, Goldschmidt

By Anthony Franco | July 5, 2020 at 10:34am CDT

Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas received a platelet-rich plasma injection back in February, but he’s continued to make progress over the past few months. He’s apparently nearing full recovery, as he tells reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he anticipates being in the club’s season-opening rotation.

Mikolas will throw approximately 40 pitches to live hitters in an intrasquad game early next week, Hummel adds. That seemingly represents the final step in his build-up toward readiness for the regular season.

Also ready for the season opener is Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy was nagged a bit by a sore right elbow in the first iteration of Spring Training, Hummel notes. Nearly four months later, Goldschmidt tells Hummel his elbow is back to 100 percent. The 32-year-old’s first season in St. Louis was a bit of a down year relative to Goldschmidt’s lofty standards. A fully healthy season from the star first baseman would go a long way towards the Cards’ hopes of repeating as NL Central champions.

2020 will mark the first year of a five-year, $130MM contract extension Goldschmidt signed at the outset of the 2019 season. Whereas Goldy might not have opened this season at full health had it begun in March as planned, it seems he has generally benefited from the three-month stoppage, allowing his elbow to get back to where it should be.

How Worried Should The Cardinals Be About Paul Goldschmidt?

By Mark Polishuk | May 2, 2020 at 10:58pm CDT

The Cardinals reached the 2019 NLCS on the strength of their pitching and defense, as the team’s offensive efforts could best be described as middle of the pack. After letting Marcell Ozuna leave in free agency and trading Jose Martinez to the Rays, St. Louis did more to subtract than add from the lineup during the offseason, as Brad Miller and the re-signed Matt Wieters were the only position players inked to Major League contracts.

Young players like Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and (eventually) top prospect Dylan Carlson are expected to make up some of this offensive slack as they grow into being big league regulars. If and when the 2020 season gets underway, however, the Cards are also counting on several underachieving veteran bats — i.e. Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina — to get back to form.

At the very least, Paul Goldschmidt performed markedly better than that group. The six-time All Star’s first season in St. Louis saw him hit .260/.346/.476 with 34 homers over 682 plate appearances. This worked out to a 113 OPS+ and 116 wRC+, both of which ranked second on the team (behind Edman) among Cards batters with at least 349 PA. Goldschmidt also came up big in the Cardinals’ five-game triumph over the Braves in the NLDS, posting a 1.383 OPS over 23 plate appearances to help lead St. Louis to its first postseason series victory since 2014.

All in all, it was a very solid showing for a veteran hitter in his age-31 season. However, “very solid” is not what the Cardinals were expecting from Goldschmidt, especially given their major investment in his future during the 2018-19 offseason.

The Cards paid a hefty price to acquire Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks in December 2018, sending Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2020 draft (that 75th overall pick was used on Dominic Fletcher, a strong defensive outfielder ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 20th-best prospect in Arizona’s farm system). It was a lot to give up for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, though the Cardinals kept the slugger away from free agency by signing him to a five-year, $130MM extension last spring, locking Goldschmidt up for the 2020-24 seasons.

It was the priciest contract in Cardinals history, topping the seven-year, $120MM deal given to Matt Holliday in the 2009-10 offseason. The Holliday contract, incidentally, is widely considered to be one of the best nine-figure free agent deals in baseball history — entering his age-30 season at the time of the agreement, Holliday remained a very productive player until almost the very end of the seven-year pact, as injuries began to take their toll. He was limited to 703 PA over the last two seasons (2015-16) of his Cardinals contract, though Holliday still managed a 113 OPS+ and 115 wRC+ during that stretch.

Some might call this a “very solid showing” for an injury-plagued Holliday in his age 35-36 seasons….especially considering that it essentially matched what the 31-year-old Goldschmidt did over only slightly fewer plate appearances in 2019.

Granted, that observation is probably better served to illustrate that Holliday was a very underrated player moreso than it was to hint that Goldschmidt is already in a decline phase. Still, considering how sharply Goldschmidt’s 2019 numbers dropped off from his superstar-level production in Arizona, the Cardinals can’t be happy about already having to consider if he has already peaked.

From 2013-18, Goldschmidt batted .301/.406/.541 over 3944 PA for the Diamondbacks, hitting 181 homers and posting a 149 wRC+/150 OPS+. His 2019 campaign, therefore, marked easily the worst season of seven-year span, and Goldschmidt also posted the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, walk rate (11.4%), and BABIP (.302) of those seven years in 2019, while generating his second-highest strikeout rate (24.3%).

As per Statcast numbers that date back to 2015, Goldschmidt also posted his lowest hard-hit ball rate (42.4%), exit velocity (90.1 mph) and xwOBA (.361) of the Statcast era. His xwOBA is higher than his .346 wOBA, however, and since Goldschmidt had never previously enjoyed less than a .340 BABIP in any of his full Major League seasons, there is some element of bad luck to his 2019 results. As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne pointed out last July, however, Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has been in decline as he has gotten older, which has been borne out in his dwindling stolen base totals and, by extension, his ability to beat out grounders and keep up those inflated BABIP numbers.

Connor’s piece (titled “The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt”) was published on July 2….which, in classic reverse-jinx form, ended up being just about the nadir of Goldschmidt’s season. After posting a .742 OPS from Opening Day through July 2, Goldschmidt proceeded to hit .274/.354/.554 over his final 326 PA. It marked the second straight year that Goldschmidt rebounded from tough beginning to a season, as he had only a .721 OPS through his first 243 plate appearances of the 2018 campaign before crushing it to the tune of a whopping 1.040 OPS over his 447 remaining PA.

It’s possible St. Louis could look at those 2018 numbers and think that Goldschmidt might just be evolving into a slow-start type of player. And again, it should be noted that Goldschmidt in no way was a bad player in 2019, with a 2.9 fWAR. The issue is that the Cardinals were certainly counting on Goldschmidt’s prime to last at least a couple of years into his extension, not see it potentially already end before his extension even begins.

As a what-if, let’s imagine Goldschmidt hadn’t inked that new deal with the Cards and instead tested free agency. On the heels of his 2019 performance and going into his age-32 season, he wouldn’t have come anywhere close to five years and $130MM on the open market. Jose Abreu was the only other major name in the first base market, and the unusual nature of Abreu’s relationship with the White Sox makes him something of an outlier rather than as a Goldschmidt comp. Abreu openly wanted to remain in Chicago, to the point that he accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed a further extension through the 2022 season (an extra two years and $32.2MM).

Abreu is a year older than Goldschmidt and doesn’t have such a long track record of elite performance. Yet, considering how many felt the White Sox were generous in their extension with Abreu, could something in the neighborhood of a three-year guarantee for $50MM-$60MM have been Goldschmidt’s ceiling in free agency? Teams are less willing than ever to pay a premium for anything below top-level offense from a first base-only player, and it’s likely multiple clubs would have been worried by Goldschmidt’s 2019.

Plus, a qualifying offer would have also been attached to Goldschmidt’s services, and it’s not out of the question that he could have himself accepted the $17.8MM QO as a form of a pillow contract. On the other hand, he also might have been wary about leaving any further potential long-term money on the table since his early-career extension with the Diamondbacks ended up being a bargain for the club. Goldschmidt and his representatives might have looked for a multi-year deal that, ideally, contained an opt-out after the first year, allowing Goldschmidt to re-enter the market if he did indeed prove that 2019 was an aberration.

In any case, the qualifying offer could have potentially helped the Cardinals in re-signing Goldschmidt at a much lower price than $130MM. Or, while walking away from Goldschmidt entirely would have been bold given how much they sent to the D’Backs, the Cards could have looked elsewhere and, in this scenario, had $130MM in future funds to allocate to another offensive player. Perhaps St. Louis could have made a big push for Anthony Rendon, or maybe outbid the Twins for Josh Donaldson (a longtime Cardinals target).

It’s all total speculation, of course, as Goldschmidt is on the Cards’ books through the 2024 season. Of all the veterans St. Louis is relying on once baseball eventually gets underway, the length and cost of Goldschmidt’s contract make him the player the Cardinals most strongly hope can get back on track.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Employee Pay, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Pirates, Shelton, Kela

By Connor Byrne and TC Zencka | April 18, 2020 at 9:07am CDT

Phillies owner John Middleton informed the team’s employees Friday that no one will be laid off or forced to take a pay cut through at least the end of May, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. “I am neither an epidemiologist nor a public policy maker, but I do know our industry, and it is my sincere belief that baseball will be played this year,” Middleton wrote in a letter, adding that there’s no reason to reduce the club’s budget when he’s under the impression that “a meaningful number of games” will take place in 2020. The Phillies are just the second team to commit to no cuts through May, joining the division-rival Braves. More teams are expected to follow, however, with the Giants the latest team to make the commitment, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt has set up camp in his Jupiter-area home during the quarantine, but he’s finding new ways to keep his head in the game. Thanks to a virtual reality product from WIN Reality, Goldschmidt can simulate at-bats against any pitcher in the game, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldschmidt got enough exposure to live pitching in spring training to fully test his new virtual reality gear, and he came away impressed with its accuracy. Goldy is working out in more traditional ways as well, but the VR gear is giving him an opportunity to rest his elbow while still simulating game experience.
The Pirates under Clint Hurdle became known for contentious run-ins with other teams due to their proclivity for throwing up and in. The bad rap was furthered by pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow developing into aces once having left Pittsburgh. But Derek Shelton runs the dugout in Pittsburgh now, and it remains to be seen how the culture will change under new leadership. Shelton spoke to some of his tendencies, however, including how he will let statistics and the extenuating circumstances determine how often he lets his starters go through a lineup a third time (as much as how the pitcher is performing on any given day), per Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Shelton also spoke about the closer role, where he expects Keone Kela to serve as a traditional closer.

NL West Notes: Martin, Giants, Ubaldo

By Steve Adams | April 2, 2020 at 8:42pm CDT

Right-hander Corbin Martin, one of four players the Astros sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke blockbuster, had been on the Diamondbacks’ radar for awhile, writes Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription required). They’d first targeted him in the 2017 draft and again in trade talks with the ’Stros centered around Paul Goldschmidt — but Houston wasn’t keen on including him in such a deal. At the time, Martin was 22 and fresh off 122 innings of 2.51 ERA ball between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, while Goldschmidt only had a year of control left.

Martin made his MLB debut in 2019 but underwent Tommy John surgery in July and was suddenly on the shelf for a win-now Astros club. Thus, D-backs GM Mike Hazen inquired again, and the Astros were more willing to listen the second time around. A package of Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer and Josh Rojas (plus plenty of cash to help offset Greinke’s salary) got the job done. Martin may not be an option for the Snakes until 2021, but he’s a second-rounder with a career 2.58 ERA in the minors who has ranked on Top 100 lists in both of the past two offseasons, making him an intriguing piece down the road. D-backs and Astros fans alike will want to check out the piece for thoughts from Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye on the club’s longstanding interest in Martin.

Some more out of the NL West…

The Giants’ release of veteran lefty Jerry Blevins only increased the odds of southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Wandy Peralta making the club, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Both pitchers hurled five shutout innings when exhibition games were still being played — Garcia with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio and Peralta with a 10-to-4 mark. Given that Garcia is out of minor league options, he’d appear a particularly likely candidate to secure a spot in the ’pen, although there’s certainly room for both. The Giants claimed both lefties off waivers, with Peralta coming over from the Reds in September and Garcia coming over from the Marlins over the winter. Each has had some success in the Majors and is controllable all the way through the 2023 season should things pan out in the Bay Area.
Baseball’s shutdown put Ubaldo Jimenez’s comeback attempt with the Rockies on hold, but the right-hander is open to pitching in the minors if play is able to resume, writes Nick Groke of The Athletic in an excellent column on Jimenez’s unexpected bid to revive his career (subscription required). As Groke details, Jimenez received a “fringy” Major League offer in the 2017-18 offseason but opted to stay home in the Dominican with his pregnant wife and soon-to-be-born child. This offseason, wanting to take one last shot, he called Rockies VP of international scouting Rolando Fernandez about using the team’s complex in the Dominican to refine his mechanics. That eventually turned into a solid Dominican Winter League stint, a minor league deal with the Rox and several weeks serving playing the role of wise old sage to younger Rockies pitchers like German Marquez. Manager Bud Black tells Groke that Jimenez was sitting around 91 mph with his heater early in camp. A comeback at age 36 is a long shot but would make for one heck of an in-season storyline to root for.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reynolds, Newman, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Flaherty

By TC Zencka | February 22, 2020 at 12:07pm CDT

The Pirates are more likely than not to land outside the playoff picture in 2020, but they’ve not given up the notion of wreaking some havoc on the NL Central this year. To do so, however, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman will need to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. True enough, Reynolds and Newman came out the gate strong in 2019, posting 3.2 fWAR and 2.4 fWAR, respectively. And yet, teaming their rookie duo with Josh Bell’s breakout bat still only amounted to the 20th-ranked offense by runs scored (758 runs), 19th by wRC+ (92). Beyond these three, the other two Pirates rounding out their top-5 by wRC+ in 2019 now play for different teams (Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson), and the sixth is a pitcher (Steven Brault). Immediately upon the close of 2019, the Pirates had planned to give Brault a go as a two-way player, but with new leadership up and down the organization, it’s unclear what his role will be. Regardless, Jarrod Dyson is the biggest addition made the to position player group this winter. Reynolds and Newman are core pieces of this lineup, and the good news is this: if they do slump in their sophomore seasons, they should have enough leash to find their way back. Let’s jump from the bottom of the NL Central to the top and check in with the reigning divisional champs…

As Spring Training games kick off (weather permitting), hitters around the league are putting their offseason swing adjustments to the test. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals will all be deploying tweaked swings to some degree as they seek the kind of offensive consistency that eluded the trio last year, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldy was the most successful of the three, but his fortunes at the plate sunk and fell seemingly on a monthly basis, and he never quite settled into the type of season to which he is accustomed. A .260 BA was his lowest mark since 2012 by almost thirty points, and while his power remained decidedly above average, it did drop from the astronomical heights of the couple seasons prior. Still, even in a down year, Goldy produced 16% more offense than average. Any substantive regression to his career norms should be enough to raise Goldy’s stock back to the level of franchise cornerstone where the Cardinals expected him to be when they acquired him for three players and a pick last winter.
Unsurprisingly, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wasted no time in naming Jack Flaherty their opening day starter, tweets Goold. Flaherty drove the Cardinals second half push to 91 wins and their first divisional crown since 2015. Who follows Flaherty in the rotation is a more compelling question for those in Cardinals camp this spring. There are no shortage of options, from rotation holdovers like Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas, to former ace Carlos Martinez, to newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim. Adam Wainwright will be somewhere in the rotation after a rejuvenating 14-10 season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/4.36 FIP across 31 starts. The bridge from Flaherty to Wainwright (to Chris Carpenter to Matt Morris) is a tangible reminder of the Cardinals’ institutional success. 2007, Wainright’s first season as a starter, remains the only losing season the Cards have suffered this century (they went 78-84 and finished in third place).

The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt

By Connor Byrne | July 2, 2019 at 9:25pm CDT

There haven’t been many better major leaguers than first baseman Paul Goldschmidt since he made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2011. From Goldschmidt’s first big league at-bat through last season, he slashed .297/.398/.532 with 209 home runs in 4,708 plate appearances and showed off rare athleticism for his position, adding 124 stolen bases. During his first seven-plus years in the bigs, Goldschmidt tied for sixth in wRC+ (144) and ranked ninth in fWAR (36.2). Goldschmidt did a large portion of that damage on a sweetheart contract for Arizona, which signed him to a five-year, $32MM guarantee entering 2013. When the club made that commitment to Goldschmidt, he was about to begin his first of six straight All-Star seasons.

With Goldschmidt on the brink of a contract year in 2019, he understandably wasn’t going to take a discount this time. And the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to splurge on Goldschmidt, even though he’s a franchise icon, prior to his age-31 season. As a result, the Diamondbacks made the difficult decision to trade Goldschmidt to the Cardinals last December for three players – right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and infielder Andy Young – as well as a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. It looked like a solid haul at the time for one year of Goldschmidt, and indeed, Weaver and Kelly have impressed this year in the desert.

The Cardinals, who missed the playoffs in each of the previous three years, thought the Goldschmidt acquisition would inject new life into their lineup. The team was thrilled to reel in Goldschmidt, who finally got his enormous payday with a five-year, $130MM extension on the cusp of the season. So far, though, it hasn’t looked like a great allocation of funds. Goldschmidt has underwhelmed enough that he won’t be an All-Star this year, and the Redbirds have consistently taken one step forward and another back en route to a 41-41 record.

St. Louis’ offense ranks 21st in the majors in both runs and and wRC+. After adding one of the premier hitters of the past decade, the club expected much better. Goldschmidt hasn’t done a lot to help matters with his .246/.336/.405 line and 98 wRC+ through 352 plate appearances. While Goldschmidt has slugged 14 home runs, three came in the Cardinals’ second game of the season, when it looked like the start of an ideal match between him and the team.

On its surface, Goldschmidt’s middling production doesn’t mean this is the beginning of the end of an illustrious career. Just last year, he struggled through May before going on a three-month tear to restore his numbers. That said, it would be reasonable to sound some concern over Goldschmidt’s issues this year.

While Goldschmidt put up an expected weighted on-base average of .367 to .404 from 2015-18 – the first four seasons of the Statcast era – he’s down to .343 in that category this season. Granted, that’s definitely not awful – it ranks in the league’s 62nd percentile – though it’s not befitting of the superstar we’ve grown accustomed to watching. Moreover, a high batting average has always been a calling card for Goldschmidt, who’s a lifetime .294 hitter in part because he has registered a .351 BABIP in the majors. Goldschmidt’s BABIP this season has dropped to .302, which could be a sign of bad luck on its face, yet there’s almost no gap between his .246 average/.248 expected BA in 2019. He’s also walking less than he has since 2011, albeit at a still-solid 11.4 percent clip, while chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever and making less in-zone contact than he has in any season but his rookie introduction.

Less contact on strikes has led to less power for Goldschmidt, who has limped to a .159 ISO thus far. That’s a 75-point drop in comparison to 2011-18 (.234) and a below-average mark relative to the league (.180). Going back to 2018, Goldschmidt showed power all over the strike zone, including on the inner and outer halves of the plate. This year, though, those pitches have largely thrown him for a loop.

When Goldschmidt has gotten on base this season, his long-established ability to steal has been nonexistent. Goldschmidt has swiped at least 15 bags in five seasons, though that number dipped to seven last year and has fallen to zero in 2019. He has only attempted to steal once, in fact, likely because his top speed has waned. Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has gradually come down in recent years and only ranks in the game’s 37th percentile, per Statcast.

Three months into Goldschmidt’s Cardinals career, it’s much too soon to say this type of production is his new normal. Frankly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goldschmidt go on a vintage run in the coming months. Considering the Cardinals’ place in this year’s NL postseason chase, not to mention the $22MM per annum they owe Goldschmidt through 2024, they need a rebound from their franchise player sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cardinals Extend Paul Goldschmidt

By Jeff Todd | March 24, 2019 at 1:39pm CDT

1:38pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds details (via Twitter) on the incentives package included in Goldschmidt’s new contract. The slugger can earn $250k for being named an All-Star, $250k for winning a Gold Glove award, and $1.5M for winning the NL MVP. As Saxon reported earlier, Goldschmidt’s yearly earnings will tally $26MM, which comprises a $22MM yearly base salary in addition to a $20MM signing bonus that will be spread evenly across the five years of the contract.

10:17am: Goldschmidt will earn $26MM per season from 2020-24, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (Twitter link).

TODAY, 8:04am: The deal is done, and the Cardinals will officially make the announcement at a press conference this morning, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports (Twitter link).

THURSDAY: The Cardinals are closing in on an extension with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If he passes a physical, Goldschmidt will remain a Cardinal for five additional seasons at a price of $130MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter), thus setting a new contractual record for the storied St. Louis franchise.

Goldschmidt is already slated to earn $14.5MM in 2019, the final season of the extension he signed earlier in his career. With five new seasons tacked on, he’ll now be under contract through the 2024 season. The new deal will afford Goldschmidt full no-trade protection but will not include any opt-out opportunities, Rosenthal tweets.

The Cards are now set to accomplish what they set out to do when they acquired Goldschmidt earlier this winter. The club made no secret of its desire to hammer out a long-term arrangement with its new first bagger. Indeed, achieving exclusive negotiating rights likely motivated the St. Louis organization to part with starter Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young and a Competitive Balance Round B selection to land Goldy in the first place.

Getting the deal done now means that both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt (along with his representatives at Excel Sports Management) need not think about alternatives next winter. It surely would have been interesting to see how the star performed on the open market. It’s hardly an optimal time for a defensively limited slugger to reach the open market. The Chris Davis deal (seven years, $161MM) is scarcely three years old, but seems a relic in retrospect. We’ve seen a steady reduction in earning expectations for such players in recent years. Still, significant money has still been there for the very best players. J.D. Martinez took down $110MM over five years despite profiling as a DH. Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion each commanded $20MM annual salaries over three-year terms. And first bagger Eric Hosmer — a much younger but lighter-hitting first baseman — went for eight years and $144MM.

There’s an argument to be made that Goldschmidt could have earned more on the open market. He’d have faced little competition at the top of the first base market outside of the older Jose Abreu, though there are a few notable other players available next winter. But it’s frankly difficult to argue with the decision to sign onto this contract, particularly with another year of health and performance risk still separating Goldschmidt from free agency. The Cards obviously were quite fond of their new acquisition — and, perhaps, felt no small amount of pressure to get something done. It’s no small achievement in this climate for a first baseman to secure a $26MM AAV over a five-year term that begins in his age-32 season.

Goldschmidt, of course, is no ordinary first baseman. Comparing him to his peers at first base, in fact, isn’t quite the right scope. Over the past three years — that is, not including his personal-best 2015 campaign — Goldy has been among the dozen top position players by measure of fWAR. He’s in a dead heat with Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto in that regard. Now, he’ll join that pair of star performers in securing a large and lengthy contract extension.

While the Cardinals haven’t had much time to watch Goldschmidt up close, he really doesn’t have much of anything to prove. Somehow only an eighth-round draft pick back in 2009, Goldschmidt has been an offensive sensation ever since he reached the professional ranks. He destroyed minor-league pitching while racing to the majors, showing well in his 2011 debut. Thereafter, he emerged as one of the game’s best hitters and has rarely wavered from that standard.

All told, Goldschmidt carries a .297/.398/.532 slash (144 wRC+) through 4,708 plate appearances. That’s more or less exactly what he posted last year, when he ran up 690 plate appearances of .290/.389/.533 hitting with 33 long balls. Goldschmidt didn’t have his best showing in terms of plate discipline, but his 13.0% walk rate and 25.1% strikeout rate were hardly problematic and largely reflect his career levels. He continued to sting the ball, with a career-best 46.2% hard-contact rate (per Fangraphs), though he also made soft contact with greater frequency (16.9%) than ever before.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

By TC Zencka | March 2, 2019 at 12:27pm CDT

Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.”

Goldschmidt poll link for app users.

Rendon poll link for app users.

Central Notes: Ventura, Goldschmidt, Taillon

By Jeff Todd | February 12, 2019 at 8:40am CDT

At the time of his tragic death in 2017, Yordano Ventura was playing on a long-term deal with the Royals that still included $20.25MM in guaranteed future salary. Sam McDowell and Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star provide an update on the status of that contract and the remaining loose ends of his estate, which has claimed insolvency. Ventura’s daughter, now five, is the sole heir. Fortunately, she did already receive a significant recovery under a life insurance policy. But the estate, which has had to pay down obligations that Ventura incurred while supporting family and friends in his native Dominican Republic, is still pursuing the balance of his contract with the Royals. It appears to present some potentially novel (and likely also fact-intensive) issues. According to the piece, there does not appear to be a prior instance of a player dying during a long-term contract. Those interested in learning about the full story and potential factors in the still-unresolved contract situation will certainly want to read the Star’s full report.

Here are some more notes from the game’s central divisions:

The Cardinals made clear that they intend to seek a long-term deal with new star Paul Goldschmidt, and the opening of camp also starts the clock on pre-season conversations. That said, there are indications that the St. Louis organization will not impose any timing restrictions on talks, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted in a recent article regarding a host of Spring Training issues. The team is evidently prepared to hold discussions in whatever time and manner Goldschmidt himself prefers, even if that means keeping the line open in the midst of his first (and potentially only) season in St. Louis.
Pirates righty Jameson Taillon enters the 2019 season facing big expectations, as Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. He also has his eye on the broader player market as a union rep and student of the business of the game. The 27-year-old starter says he’s not only hoping for free agents to earn big salaries, but rooting for those that do to perform well under their contracts. As Gorman notes, the Bucs hold Taillon in high esteem and would surely be interested in working out an extension — particularly given that he’s still a full season away from arbitration. It stands to reason, though, that the former second overall draft pick will not sell his future campaigns for anything less than full value.

NL Notes: D-Backs, Wheeler, Wacha, Dunn

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2019 at 11:03pm CDT

The Diamondbacks’ interesting offseason reflects GM Mike Hazen’s self-described effort to “thread the needle,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes in an excellent look at the Arizona organization and its top baseball executive. Despite trading away franchise cornerstone Paul Goldschmidt in what could turn out to be a highly consequential trade, the Snakes will enter the season with intentions of trying to contend — albeit with a realistic outlook and, it seems fair to presume, backup plans should things go south. Hazen says he’s committed to trying to put a winner on the field whenever possible, making clear he has no regret for pushing in chips at last summer’s trade deadline. It’s an interesting article that’s well worth a full read.

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