MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The deal between the Dodgers and Teoscar Hernández (1:00)
- The Mariners trade Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani (6:40)
- The Mariners also trade José Caballero to the Rays for Luke Raley and the Rays also trade Andrew Kittredge to the Cardinals for Richie Palacios (18:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
- Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Yoshi Yamamoto Fallout, the Chris Sale/Vaughn Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup – listen here
- Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves – listen here
- Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Dodgers Sign Teoscar Hernandez
The Dodgers have continued their free agent spending spree, announcing a one-year, $23.5MM deal with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Only $15MM of that salary will be paid to Hernandez this year, as the rest is deferred and will be paid out in installments from 2030-39. Hernandez is represented by Republik Sports.
Reports about the Dodgers’ interest in Hernandez surfaced soon after the free agent market opened back in early November, and L.A. maintained that interest all the way up until today’s agreement. The Dodgers were known to be still be looking for a right-handed bat, and they’ve now addressed that need in a big way with a former All-Star and Silver Slugger who has hit 147 home runs over 3002 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season.
After a string of productive years with the Blue Jays, Hernandez was dealt for Erik Swanson and Adam Macko last offseason, and Hernandez’s move to Seattle resulted in a downturn in his production. While he still went yard 26 times, Hernandez batted only .258/.305/.435 over 678 plate appearances, and his 105 wRC+ was well below his 133 wRC+ from 2020-22. Since Hernandez’s underlying metrics were largely the same as his career norms, it seems possible that the biggest culprit was simply T-Mobile Park. Hernandez hit only .217/.263/.380 in the Mariners’ home ballpark last season, as opposed to a much stronger .295/.344/.486 slash line on the road.
While Dodger Stadium has something of a pitcher-friendly reputation itself, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old Hernandez might get back on track in a new environment, and this one-year deal might reflect his desire to re-establish himself before committing to a longer-term contract. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hernandez 12th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a four-year, $80MM deal, under the logic that the offseason’s lack of premium bats would still lead to a big contract for Hernandez even in the wake of an underwhelming 2023 campaign.
It could also be the case that Hernandez was open to a one-year pact specifically to join the Dodgers, as the outfielder is now joining arguably baseball’s most loaded lineup. Los Angeles already racked up plenty of runs in their 100-win 2023 campaign, and that powerful collection of position players has now added Shohei Ohtani to the DH spot and Hernandez to a corner outfield role.
Hernandez now gets to join a contender and possibly win a World Series ring, while ideally posting a better platform year that would allow him to score a big multi-year contract next winter. The Angels and Red Sox were two other teams known to be in the running for Hernandez’s services, and reporter Francys Romero and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X links) each relayed that those teams had interest in the outfielder on two-year deals. In Boston’s case, Cotillo wrote that the Sox were interested in something akin to a two-year, $28MM pact.
Hernandez now looks to be the Dodgers’ everyday option primarily in left field, though he could slide over to right field when a left-hander is on the mound (thus sending Jason Heyward to the bench). L.A. is still perhaps a little unbalanced with left-handed hitters in its first-choice lineup, yet Hernandez now joins Mookie Betts and Will Smith as big righty swingers, plus the Dodgers have other right-handed bats in Chris Taylor, Manuel Margot, and Miguel Rojas available off the bench.
Margot was also recently acquired as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Rays but is known more for his defense than his bat. Taylor can fill in at multiple positions, and his hitting also became a question mark after a down year in 2022, though he did bounce back with a 104 wRC+ over 384 PA last season. Having Taylor as a supersub around the diamond is perhaps a better use for his skillset than a regular spot in left field, even if defensive metrics have been mixed at best about Hernandez’s outfield glovework during his career.
Hernandez has never drawn many walks during his career, and his high strikeout totals add even more swing-and-miss to a team that already saw Taylor, James Outman, Max Muncy, and even Ohtani rank well below the league average in strikeout rate in 2023. Still, the relative lack of contact is something of a minor flaw compared to the huge upside provided by the Dodgers’ overall offensive attack.
The deferred money will lower the luxury tax number on Hernandez’s $23.5MM salary, but his signing represents yet another big expenditure for a Los Angeles team that has basically lapped the rest of the league combined in offseason spending. Led by Ohtani’s $700MM deal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s $325MM contract, the Dodgers have now spent slightly under $1.067 billion on free agents alone this winter, to say nothing of the extra money taken on when L.A. acquired and then extended Glasnow. As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2024 now sits at roughly $302.32MM, well over the Competitive Balance Tax’s highest penalty threshold of $297MM.
Even with the luxury tax bill continuing to escalate, there is little reason to think L.A. is done making moves, as starting pitching continues to be a need even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow. More signings obviously can’t be ruled out, or the Dodgers could move more young talent in other trades for another starter. The sky is basically the limit for Los Angeles at this point, as the Dodgers have outpaced even their usual high-spending ways (with the many deferrals kicking the financial can down the road to some extent) in building a veritable superteam with Ohtani, Betts, Yamamoto, and Freddie Freeman among the cornerstones.
Reporter Moises Fabian (via X) was first with the news that Hernandez had signed with Los Angeles, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X links) reported details about the one-year term, the salary, and the deferred money.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Red Sox Fielding Trade Interest In Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen
The Red Sox have received trade interest in left fielder Masataka Yoshida, report Jen McCaffrey and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. McCaffrey and Rosenthal write that while the Sox aren’t actively shopping Yoshida, they’re open to ways to restructure the outfield.
That aligns with a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe last week the Sox were considering dealing an outfielder. The Sox would have more suitors if they shopped an affordable, controllable player like Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu. Finding a suitable match on Yoshida would be more difficult, but it’s a possibility that’d clear some desired spending room.
Another move that’d allow the Sox to shed some money: a trade of closer Kenley Jansen. Speier reported this evening that Boston is entertaining interest in the four-time All-Star. Yoshida and Jansen were each free agent pickups last offseason.
Boston signed Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM contract. (They also paid a $15.375MM posting fee to Yoshida’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes.) It was a bet on the left-handed hitter transitioning smoothly to MLB pitching. The 30-year-old had mixed results in his first big league campaign. Yoshida hit .289/.338/.445 over 580 plate appearances. He showed strong strike zone awareness and excellent pure contact skills, yet it wasn’t an overwhelming offensive performance.
Yoshida hit 15 home runs and walked less than 6% of the time he stepped to the plate. Listed at 5’8″ and 176 pounds, he doesn’t have the raw power of a prototypical slugger. Yet the profile is built around his bat, as Yoshida has drawn below-average reviews for his glove dating back to his time in Japan. He’s limited to left field or designated hitter and received subpar grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
Detractors pointed to those defensive and power questions when Yoshida was available via the posting system last winter. The Sox, under former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, were confident he’d hit enough to overcome that. With Bloom having since been replaced by Craig Breslow, the front office might be less bullish on his projection.
Yoshida’s contract calls for $18MM salaries for the next four seasons. It’s unlikely he’d have landed a $72MM deal covering his age 30-33 campaigns if he were a free agent this winter. As a result, Boston would probably have to offset a chunk of the money to move him — either by including cash considerations or taking some money back in the deal.
Jansen would be a much different trade candidate. His $16MM salary next season isn’t far below what Yoshida will make. He’d be a much shorter-term commitment, though, as he’ll be a free agent after 2024. Jansen had a solid but not overpowering first season with the Sox, pitching to a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.7% of opponents, an above-average mark that nevertheless represented the lowest rate of his career. He still successfully nailed down 29 of 33 save chances, but he wasn’t quite as dominant as he’d been for the Dodgers or Braves.
Boston has a fair amount of depth in both the outfield and the bullpen. That at least opens the possibility of offloading cash in those areas to clear space for other targets. Speier wrote tonight the front office is still seeking starting pitching and a right-handed power bat.
The Sox have been tied to free agent Teoscar Hernández throughout the offseason. Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Boston is also among the team showing interest in Jorge Soler. Either player would provide plenty of juice from the right side. A Yoshida trade would open a path to playing time in left field or DH. However, Speier indicates the Red Sox have been unwilling to offer more than two guaranteed years to Hernández, who is holding out for a three-plus year pact. It’s unclear if they’d be open to a third year on Soler.
In any case, there are obviously a number of possibilities the front office is still considering. The Sox have also been tied to a number of free agent rotation options, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Recent reporting has indicated that Imanaga appears a more realistic target than Snell or Montgomery, although the NPB left-hander could top $100MM himself. Speier characterizes the Red Sox as “lurking” on Imanaga but indicates they may not be among the most involved suitors. The southpaw will make his decision before the posting window closes next Thursday.
Red Sox Exploring Trades Involving Outfielders
The Red Sox are exploring trades involving their young outfielders, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While Speier doesn’t identify anyone who is specifically part of talks, the Sox have a few intriguing possibilities.
Of the six primary outfielders on the 40-man roster, three have yet to qualify for arbitration: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. Duran has a little under two years of MLB service, while Abreu and Rafaela made their MLB debuts late in the 2023 campaign.
Other clubs will likely value that trio in different orders. They’ve each shown promise, but none is a finished product. Duran, who turned 27 in September and has appeared in parts of three big league campaigns, might offer the most certainty. He’s nevertheless a potentially divisive evaluation, as he took a step forward in 2023 after significant struggles in his first two MLB looks.
The left-handed hitter is coming off an impressive .295/.346/.482 line with eight home runs over 362 plate appearances. That’s far better than the .219/.269/.354 career mark he brought into the year. Last season’s production was partially inflated by a .381 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain. If he’s going to hit near .300 again, he’ll likely need to trim a 24.9% strikeout rate that’s a few percentage points higher than the league average. Duran has cut his whiffs with each progressive season, so it’s certainly not out of the question he continues to develop offensively, but some clubs could have reservations about an aggressive approach.
It’s a similar story defensively. Duran is an elite athlete and runner. That has shown up on the bases, where he went 24-26 in stolen base attempts, but hasn’t translated into strong defensive reviews. Public metrics have graded him as a middling center fielder, albeit to varying degrees. Statcast has pegged Duran two runs below par in nearly 1200 career innings. Defensive Runs Saved has been harsher, estimating him 19 runs below average. A team that feels he is a capable or better defender in center would be much more bullish than one that projects him as a left fielder — where he doesn’t have prototypical corner outfield power.
Abreu faces similar questions about his ideal defensive spot. He has played all three positions in the minors. During his MLB debut, he started eight games in left and 12 in center. Baseball America, which recently slotted him as the #6 prospect in the Sox’s farm system, suggests he’s best in right. Abreu has elite arm strength but below-average speed, which makes him a tough fit in center.
The 24-year-old has posted excellent numbers throughout his minor league career. That includes a .274/.391/.539 showing through 363 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. Abreu started his big league career strong, hitting .316/.388/.474 over his first 28 contests. The Sox shielded the lefty hitter from same-handed pitchers in that look, but he flashed the strong strike zone awareness which he has shown in the minors.
Rafaela, 23, brings a polar opposite approach. He’s an extremely aggressive hitter, which MLB pitchers exploited during a 28-game debut. The Curacao native torched Triple-A pitching, running a .312/.370/.618 slash with 14 homers over 219 plate appearances.
That’s strong production for any player. It’s especially impressive for an outfielder whom most prospect evaluators forecast as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Rafaela can also play the middle infield, although he’s regarded as a superior defender on the grass. Baseball America recently named him the Sox’s #4 prospect.
Barring trade, Duran is a lock for an Opening Day roster spot. Abreu or Rafaela could start next season in Triple-A. It’s unlikely there’s room for all three players to open the year unless there’s an injury in Spring Training. The Sox sent a pair of minor league right-handers to St. Louis for Tyler O’Neill. He’s primarily a left fielder but capable of covering all three spots. Left fielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida is headed into the second season of a five-year deal. He’ll make $18MM annually for the next four seasons. Yoshida paired solid but unexceptional offensive production (.289/.338/.445) with subpar defense in his first MLB campaign.
Between the recent acquisition of O’Neill and Yoshida’s contract, it’s unlikely either player is traded. Rob Refsnyder rounds out the group as a righty platoon bat. He’s signed to a $1.85MM deal for next season and wouldn’t bring back a noteworthy trade return.
Speier suggests an outfielder trade could allow Boston to add pitching. Even after tonight’s agreement with Lucas Giolito, the Sox have a high-variance staff. There’s plenty of upside in a rotation that could include some combination of Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Giolito, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, yet it’s a group that also has plenty of risk.
If Boston were to trade an outfielder for pitching, they could look to free agency to replace the lost offense. Multiple reports have tied the Sox to Teoscar Hernández in recent days. Speier confirms Boston remains interested in Hernández after adding Giolito, indicating they have the financial breathing room to go back to the open market.
Nationals Reportedly Searching For Left-Handed Power Bat
The Nationals have had a fairly quiet offseason, adding third baseman Nick Senzel and right-hander Dylan Floro on one-year deals. If the club is planning to make an impact addition anywhere, TalkNats reports that it won’t be outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, who the club is seemingly not part of the sweepstakes for. The report goes on to suggest that the club is in search of a lefty-swinging power bat to add to their lineup.
That’s not necessarily a surprise, given previous reports of Washington’s interest in a reunion with switch-hitting third baseman Jeimer Candelario prior his three-year deal with Cincinnati and the subsequent addition of Senzel, who the Reds had non-tendered just weeks prior, to the D.C.’s infield mix. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato adds that the club’s pursuit of a left-handed bat could specifically focus on a player who can be added to the first base and DH mix alongside the likes of Joey Meneses and Stone Garrett. Adding lefty power to the lineup is a worthy goal for the Nats, considering the club’s brutal production from the left side last season. Their left-handed hitters combined for a wRC+ of just 82 last season, the worst figure in the NL and bottom-three in the majors. That’s due in large part to a minuscule .123 isolated slugging that ranks ahead of only the White Sox.
The market for left-handed power is, of course, headlined by center fielder Cody Bellinger. After a pair of injury-marred seasons in Los Angeles, the 2019 NL MVP rebounded in a big way with the Cubs this past year to post a 134 wRC+ while clubbing 26 homers in 130 games. Though primarily an outfielder, Bellinger has plenty of experience at first base as well with 258 career starts at the position including 59 appearances with Chicago this past season. Certainly, Bellinger would be a strong fit for the club’s needs and add some star power to a team that lost 91 games in 2023. While Nationals ownership has found success in negotiating with Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, in the past when landing players such as Max Scherzer, it would be something of a surprise to see GM Mike Rizzo’s front office commit to a pricey, long-term contract for Bellinger even as the club is still in the midst of what has turned into a lengthy rebuild.
Setting aside Bellinger, there are a handful of other options available on the free agent market who could fit the club’s needs. Veteran slugger Brandon Belt is coming off a strong season with the Blue Jays during which he crushed 19 home runs in just 404 trips to the plate, while the likes of Joey Votto and Joey Gallo are among the other lefty options available who could play first base for the Nationals next season. The likes of Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario could provide left-handed power, though both players would likely be limited to DH or left field.
The likes of Josh Naylor, Max Kepler, and Dylan Carlson are among the players who bat from the left side rumored to be available on the trade market, though Kepler and Naylor would be shorter-term acquisitions who wouldn’t line up cleanly with Washington’s competitive timeline while both Kepler and Carlson derive much of their value from their ability to play quality defense, making them questionably choices for a DH role. Barring a more aggressive shift towards contention, the Nationals seem unlikely to part with quality prospects or young players to acquire lefty power via trade when so many mid-tier free agents could fulfill the same role for only money.
Should the Nationals ultimately fail in their quest to add a lefty power bat, the club has added a pair of first base/DH options on minor league contracts this offseason in Lewin Diaz and Juan Yepez, though only Diaz hits left-handed of that pair and the 27-year-old sports a weak slash line of just .181/.227/.340 in 343 trips to the plate.
Latest On Red Sox’s Free Agent Pursuits
The Red Sox have yet to make any waves on the free agent market. Boston’s offseason spending thus far consists of a $1MM signing of depth arm Cooper Criswell. Boston has been linked to a number of high-profile players in recent weeks, many of whom remain available. The Sox were at least on the periphery of the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding in its final few days. With free agency’s top pitcher headed to Los Angeles, first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff are looking elsewhere.
The Red Sox have been linked to Jordan Montgomery and, to a lesser extent, defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell at points this offseason. While there’s no indication they’re out of the market for either player, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote over the weekend they appeared more engaged with the next tier of free agents.
Speier indicates the Sox remain involved on Shota Imanaga and Lucas Giolito on the rotation front while showing interest in outfielder Teoscar Hernández — all of whom have previously been reported as targets. Of that group, Imanaga figures to have the highest price tag. The #2 pitcher moving from Japan this offseason, he’s coming off a 2.80 ERA with an NPB-leading 174 strikeouts over 148 innings.
Imanaga doesn’t have the ceiling that Yamamoto possesses, but he’s generally viewed as a likely mid-rotation starter. As with Yamamoto, Imanaga is available via the posting system. The Yokohama BayStars formally posted him on November 27. That opened a 45-day window for the southpaw to sign with a major league club. He’ll land with an MLB team by January 11 at the latest. Speier reports that Imanaga will travel to the U.S. shortly after the New Year to meet with interested teams. The Giants, Cubs and Yankees are among the others linked to Imanaga within the past month.
While Imanaga figures to secure four or five guaranteed years, a reunion with James Paxton would be a much shorter commitment. WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently reported the Sox were interested in bringing the southpaw back. Chris Cotillo of MassLive wrote this evening that the team has maintained contact with Paxton throughout the offseason, although there’s no indication a deal is imminent.
Paxton, 35, pitched to a 4.50 ERA over 19 starts last season. He struck out almost a quarter of opponents while inducing swinging strikes on 12.7% of his offerings. Paxton is still capable of missing a decent number of bats behind a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but he hasn’t been able to shoulder many innings. He made only six appearances between 2020-22, missing most of that stretch to Tommy John surgery and a pair of lat strains. Paxton had a pair of injured list stints last season, landing on the shelf early with a hamstring strain before knee inflammation ended his year in early September.
Dodgers Remain Interested In Teoscar Hernandez
According to independent reporter Francys Romero, the Dodgers are among the teams currently “monitoring” the market for outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, though they are not considered the favorite to ultimately land him. The report comes nearly two months after the club first expressed interest in the slugger’s services at the beginning of the offseason.
Of course, plenty has changed for the Dodgers since that initial report. L.A. has been by far the busiest club of the offseason to this point as they’ve landed top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto while also swinging a trade for and extending right-hander Tyler Glasnow. While the club’s flashiest acquisitions don’t overlap significantly with Hernandez, the Dodgers did acquire outfielder Manuel Margot as part of the Glasnow trade. With Margot now in the fold, the club appears likely to platoon him and veteran Jason Heyward (who re-signed with the club last month) in Hernandez’s native right field which cast at least some uncertainty on the club’s interest in his services.
Given the massive changes to the club’s roster in recent weeks, the Dodgers’ continued interest in Hernandez is somewhat notable even as they aren’t currently considered to be the favorite to land him. With Ohtani locked in as the club’s everyday DH, Heyward and Margot likely to man right field, and James Outman poised to start his sophomore season in center, Hernandez would likely wind up as L.A.’s everyday left fielder if he ultimately signed with the club.
The Dodgers have no established everyday left fielder, though the job is seemingly poised to go to veteran Chris Taylor if an external addition at the position isn’t made. Taylor put together a respectable season in 2023 that saw him slash a league average .237/.326/.420 while splitting time between shortstop, second base, third base, left field, and center field. If Hernandez or another regular outfielder is added, that would allow the Dodgers to keep Taylor in his current role as a semi-regular who shores up the club’s depth all around the diamond.
While the Dodgers sported MLB’s third-best offense last season with a team-wise wRC+ of 116, the club’s production in left field was actually well below average as David Peralta combined with Taylor to start all but 29 games at the position last year. The club’s collective production from left field was just 96, placing them 20th in the majors and bottom-five in the NL for the 2023 season. Hernandez, as a career 117 wRC+ hitter who slashed a whopping .283/.333/.519 from 2020-22, could prove to be a quality middle of the order bat for LA even after a down season in 2023. With that being said, even Hernandez’s diminished 105 wRC+ this past season would represent a fairly notable improvement over Peralta, who slashed just .259/.294/.381 in 422 trips to the plate last year.
That mix of a relatively stable floor and tantalizing upside earned Hernandez the 12th spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract. While that’s far from an insignificant sum, it’s a relative pittance to a club that’s committed over $1 billion total to Ohtani and Yamamoto alone, even as deferred money lowers the present-day financial impact of those deals. RosterResource currently projects the Dodgers for a $286MM payroll in 2024 but they figure have far more flexibility than that franchise-record figure would indicate thanks to the massive deferrals in Ohtani’s contract, which will pay him just $2MM in 2024.
Of course, the Dodgers are far from the only club known to be interested in Hernandez with both the club’s local rivals in Anaheim and the Red Sox among those pursuing the 31-year-old slugger. On the other hand, Hernandez is not the only corner bat available, though he figures to be a better fit for the Dodgers than Jorge Soler thanks to Ohtani’s presence at DH while offering more impact than the likes of Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham.
Red Sox, Angels Reportedly Interested In Teoscar Hernandez
TODAY: Hernandez and the Red Sox have “been discussing potential contract parameters” but no formal offer has been made, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. The team’s “engagement with Hernandez picked up” after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers, as the Sox had been one of the other suitors monitoring Yamamoto’s market.
DECEMBER 22: The Red Sox and Angels are both showing interest in outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Hernandez’s market has been fairly quiet since the offseason started last month, as slugger Shohei Ohtani dominated the positional market for much of the offseason to this point while the outfield market has seen most of its activity come from trades, with players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Jarred Kelenic changing hands.
Hernandez, 31, is coming off a down season at the plate during which he slashed just .258/.305/.435 (105 wRC+) as a member of the Mariners. With that being said, the slugger still managed to crush 26 home runs last season and entered 2023 with a whopping .283/.333/.519 slash line since the start of the 2020 campaign. That slash line is good for a 133 wRC+, tied with Austin Riley for the 20th best figure in the majors across the 2020-22 seasons. With a stable, above-average offensive floor and a tantalizing, All Star-caliber ceiling, Hernandez ranked 12th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract.
Either team is a fairly plausible fit for Hernandez. The Angels have a fairly healthy outfield mix that features superstar Mike Trout in center field with Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak as the club’s top corner options, backed up by the likes of Jo Adell and Luis Rengifo. That being said, Rosenthal also reports that Rengifo, Ward, and Moniak are all garnering trade interest from other clubs. Moving even one of those players could provide an open for Hernandez to take a corner outfield spot on an everyday basis. Even if the club decides not to move on from any of the bats currently in its outfield mix, the addition of Hernandez and his reliable 25 to 30 home run power would go a long way to replacing the 44 dingers Ohtani smacked this past season.
As for Boston, the club shipped Verdugo to the Bronx earlier in the offseason before replacing him with Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals. That leaves the club with O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Rob Refsnyder to mix-and-match with alongside Masataka Yoshida, who figures to split time between left field and DH on a daily basis next season. While O’Neill and Duran both have everyday potential and a youngster such as Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela could emerge as a quality option, adding a reliable bat to the outfield could provide a major boost to a Red Sox offense that lost Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to free agency last month. Boston’s hitting corps posted a middle-of-the-pack 99 wRC+ last season and Hernandez’s power potential could be a catalyst for a club that generated just 63 home runs from its outfield mix in 2023, the seventh-worst figure in the majors.
As Rosenthal notes, Boston appears to be focused on acquiring a front-of-the-rotation starter at the moment. The Angels, meanwhile, were connected to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell recently and have reportedly been aggressive on the trade market in hopes of upgrading their pitching staff. Even as run prevention appears to be the priority of both clubs headed into 2024, that’s unlikely to preclude either club from adding a bat of Hernandez’s caliber. Roster Resource projects the Angels for a 2024 payroll $62MM lower than their 2023 figure, while the Red Sox project for a payroll $67MM under their all-time high payroll (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) of just over $236MM. That should leave both organizations with plenty of payroll room for both Hernandez (whose aforementioned contract projection from MLBTR carries an average annual value of $20MM) and a front-end starter such as Snell or Jordan Montgomery, to say nothing of the availability of cheaper options like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market.
Of course, Hernandez is hardly the only right-handed bat of note who either club could look to add this offseason. That being said, other options such as Turner, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins all seem likely to require regular use of the DH slot. While that doesn’t appear to be a problem for the Angels, who have previously been connected to Martinez this offseason, the Red Sox seem poised to rotate between bat-first players like Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas at DH. The acquisition of any of these alternative bats would likely force Boston to play all three of those players in the field on a nearly everyday basis, complicating their defensive outlook significantly.
MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…
- Our MLB Contract Tracker, which you can find more about in this video (1:30)
- The 18th birthday of MLBTR, the evolution of the Top 50 list over the years and the preparation of this year’s list (3:00)
- Shohei Ohtani and his unique free agent case (10:35)
- Cody Bellinger and the trend of longer deals for top free agents (16:00)
- The approach to team predictions in the Top 50 (27:00)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his unique case (33:05)
- Blake Snell (38:15)
- Team fits for the top pitchers, such as the Red Sox and Giants (42:35)
- Comparing Aaron Nola to Jordan Montgomery (48:55)
- Which predictions do we have the least confidence in? Lucas Giolito, Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman (52:10)
- Sonny Gray (1:04:00)
- Robert Stephenson (1:09:45)
- Jack Flaherty (1:12:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
- Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin – listen here
- Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
Dodgers Showing Interest In Teoscar Hernandez
The Dodgers have expressed interest in Teoscar Hernández, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (X link). General manager Brandon Gomes told reporters this afternoon that a corner outfielder was among the items on the team’s offseason checklist (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
Hernández is one of the higher-upside bats on a market light on free agent hitting. A two-time Silver Slugger award winner, he hit .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays between 2020-22. He hits the open market on the heels of an underwhelming platform season, however. After an offseason trade to the Mariners, Hernández put together a .258/.305/.435 line across 678 trips to the plate.
He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, connecting on 26 home runs this past season. It was an atypically streaky offensive performance, as excellent showings in June and August were muted by below-average play in the other four months. Seattle made the somewhat surprising decision not to issue Hernández a qualifying offer. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto explained yesterday the club wanted to pivot in a more contact-oriented direction.
Even at his best, Hernández brings a lot of swing-and-miss. He fanned in 31.1% of his plate appearances this year and has gone down on strikes more than 28% of the time through the past four seasons. The profile is built more around power than strong on-base skills.
MLBTR nevertheless predicts Hernández to find a four-year pact that pays around $20MM annually, slotting him as the #12 free agent. He recently turned 31 and is arguably the #4 position player in the class behind Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Hernández has a bat-first reputation but logged nearly 1200 right field innings with Seattle, grading as a league average corner outfield defender by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
Los Angeles can go in a number of directions on the position player front. They’re presently shorthanded in the corner outfield and designated hitter mix after Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez and David Peralta reached free agency. L.A. will obviously be among the teams pursuing Ohtani and could look to bring Martinez and/or Heyward back depending on how the offseason progresses.
Mookie Betts showed the ability to play an effective second base in addition to his Gold Glove caliber outfield work. Gomes indicated the Dodgers would continue to get Betts into action at the keystone, noting that the club plans to give plenty of shortstop work to Gavin Lux. The 25-year-old infielder missed the entire season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training. The Dodgers have glove-first veteran Miguel Rojas under contract but could kick him into a utility role if Lux steps into something approaching an everyday shortstop job.
Meanwhile, Gomes added that younger infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch could find their way into the corner outfield (via Ardaya). They’ve each seen limited time in left field in the minors but are primarily second and third basemen. Neither player has hit well against MLB pitching in limited looks but they have accomplished offensive track records in Triple-A. Given the multi-positional flexibility throughout the roster, the Dodgers can go in a number of ways over the coming months.