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Teoscar Hernandez

Red Sox, Angels Reportedly Interested In Teoscar Hernandez

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TODAY: Hernandez and the Red Sox have “been discussing potential contract parameters” but no formal offer has been made, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  The team’s “engagement with Hernandez picked up” after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers, as the Sox had been one of the other suitors monitoring Yamamoto’s market.

DECEMBER 22: The Red Sox and Angels are both showing interest in outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Hernandez’s market has been fairly quiet since the offseason started last month, as slugger Shohei Ohtani dominated the positional market for much of the offseason to this point while the outfield market has seen most of its activity come from trades, with players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Jarred Kelenic changing hands.

Hernandez, 31, is coming off a down season at the plate during which he slashed just .258/.305/.435 (105 wRC+) as a member of the Mariners. With that being said, the slugger still managed to crush 26 home runs last season and entered 2023 with a whopping .283/.333/.519 slash line since the start of the 2020 campaign. That slash line is good for a 133 wRC+, tied with Austin Riley for the 20th best figure in the majors across the 2020-22 seasons. With a stable, above-average offensive floor and a tantalizing, All Star-caliber ceiling, Hernandez ranked 12th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract.

Either team is a fairly plausible fit for Hernandez. The Angels have a fairly healthy outfield mix that features superstar Mike Trout in center field with Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak as the club’s top corner options, backed up by the likes of Jo Adell and Luis Rengifo. That being said, Rosenthal also reports that Rengifo, Ward, and Moniak are all garnering trade interest from other clubs. Moving even one of those players could provide an open for Hernandez to take a corner outfield spot on an everyday basis. Even if the club decides not to move on from any of the bats currently in its outfield mix, the addition of Hernandez and his reliable 25 to 30 home run power would go a long way to replacing the 44 dingers Ohtani smacked this past season.

As for Boston, the club shipped Verdugo to the Bronx earlier in the offseason before replacing him with Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals. That leaves the club with O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Rob Refsnyder to mix-and-match with alongside Masataka Yoshida, who figures to split time between left field and DH on a daily basis next season. While O’Neill and Duran both have everyday potential and a youngster such as Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela could emerge as a quality option, adding a reliable bat to the outfield could provide a major boost to a Red Sox offense that lost Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to free agency last month. Boston’s hitting corps posted a middle-of-the-pack 99 wRC+ last season and Hernandez’s power potential could be a catalyst for a club that generated just 63 home runs from its outfield mix in 2023, the seventh-worst figure in the majors.

As Rosenthal notes, Boston appears to be focused on acquiring a front-of-the-rotation starter at the moment. The Angels, meanwhile, were connected to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell recently and have reportedly been aggressive on the trade market in hopes of upgrading their pitching staff. Even as run prevention appears to be the priority of both clubs headed into 2024, that’s unlikely to preclude either club from adding a bat of Hernandez’s caliber. Roster Resource projects the Angels for a 2024 payroll $62MM lower than their 2023 figure, while the Red Sox project for a payroll $67MM under their all-time high payroll (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) of just over $236MM. That should leave both organizations with plenty of payroll room for both Hernandez (whose aforementioned contract projection from MLBTR carries an average annual value of $20MM) and a front-end starter such as Snell or Jordan Montgomery, to say nothing of the availability of cheaper options like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market.

Of course, Hernandez is hardly the only right-handed bat of note who either club could look to add this offseason. That being said, other options such as Turner, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins all seem likely to require regular use of the DH slot. While that doesn’t appear to be a problem for the Angels, who have previously been connected to Martinez this offseason, the Red Sox seem poised to rotate between bat-first players like Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas at DH. The acquisition of any of these alternative bats would likely force Boston to play all three of those players in the field on a nearly everyday basis, complicating their defensive outlook significantly.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Dodgers Showing Interest In Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have expressed interest in Teoscar Hernández, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (X link). General manager Brandon Gomes told reporters this afternoon that a corner outfielder was among the items on the team’s offseason checklist (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

Hernández is one of the higher-upside bats on a market light on free agent hitting. A two-time Silver Slugger award winner, he hit .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays between 2020-22. He hits the open market on the heels of an underwhelming platform season, however. After an offseason trade to the Mariners, Hernández put together a .258/.305/.435 line across 678 trips to the plate.

He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, connecting on 26 home runs this past season. It was an atypically streaky offensive performance, as excellent showings in June and August were muted by below-average play in the other four months. Seattle made the somewhat surprising decision not to issue Hernández a qualifying offer. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto explained yesterday the club wanted to pivot in a more contact-oriented direction.

Even at his best, Hernández brings a lot of swing-and-miss. He fanned in 31.1% of his plate appearances this year and has gone down on strikes more than 28% of the time through the past four seasons. The profile is built more around power than strong on-base skills.

MLBTR nevertheless predicts Hernández to find a four-year pact that pays around $20MM annually, slotting him as the #12 free agent. He recently turned 31 and is arguably the #4 position player in the class behind Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Hernández has a bat-first reputation but logged nearly 1200 right field innings with Seattle, grading as a league average corner outfield defender by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Los Angeles can go in a number of directions on the position player front. They’re presently shorthanded in the corner outfield and designated hitter mix after Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez and David Peralta reached free agency. L.A. will obviously be among the teams pursuing Ohtani and could look to bring Martinez and/or Heyward back depending on how the offseason progresses.

Mookie Betts showed the ability to play an effective second base in addition to his Gold Glove caliber outfield work. Gomes indicated the Dodgers would continue to get Betts into action at the keystone, noting that the club plans to give plenty of shortstop work to Gavin Lux. The 25-year-old infielder missed the entire season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training. The Dodgers have glove-first veteran Miguel Rojas under contract but could kick him into a utility role if Lux steps into something approaching an everyday shortstop job.

Meanwhile, Gomes added that younger infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch could find their way into the corner outfield (via Ardaya). They’ve each seen limited time in left field in the minors but are primarily second and third basemen. Neither player has hit well against MLB pitching in limited looks but they have accomplished offensive track records in Triple-A. Given the multi-positional flexibility throughout the roster, the Dodgers can go in a number of ways over the coming months.

Mariners Looking To Add High-Contact Hitters

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto was among a number of executives to speak with reporters at the GM Meetings on Tuesday. He addressed a few of the club’s offseason goals — most notably, a desire to improve the offense’s bat-to-ball skills.

“Adding some contact to our lineup,” Dipoto replied when asked by Jon Morosi of MLB.com about the club’s biggest need. He added that an additional right-handed bat would be preferable, saying the front office was excited about its group of young lefty hitters.

That desire to improve the contact rate tied into Seattle’s somewhat surprising decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Teoscar Hernández. “We wanted to make sure we can address some of the flaws that exist in our team,” Dipoto told reporters (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). “Despite the fact he didn’t have a great start to his season, he put up his numbers and he contributed down the stretch as much as any player we had. But we felt like this was an opportunity to kind of take a new look at the way our team is built. If there was a reason why we were sitting home in the postseason, we felt like it was probably the inability to consistently make contact.”

Seattle hitters indeed struggled with swing-and-miss. Only the Twins struck out more often, while the M’s finished 22nd with a .242 batting average. They were 15th in on-base percentage and 16th in slugging. Hernández finished second on the team with 211 strikeouts, although that shouldn’t be especially surprising. He has always been a power-first player who compensates for a middling plate discipline profile with extra-base impact.

It seems the Mariners are planning a conscious shift away from that style. The departure of Hernández leaves a hole in the corner outfield. Speculatively speaking, Hernández’s former Toronto teammate Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could fit the mold that Seattle is targeting. While Gurriel also has an aggressive offensive approach, he’s a right-handed bat who has strong pure contact skills and 20+ homer pop.

Gurriel is a left fielder only, so a hypothetical pursuit would likely push Jarred Kelenic to right field. KBO star Jung Hoo Lee hits from the left side but brings a hit-first approach and could profile in right field. Alex Verdugo and Max Kepler are among the outfielders who may be available in trade. Second base, which stands out as another area the M’s could try to upgrade, has a few hit-over-power possibilities. Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Tim Anderson are all free agents who hit from the right side, although none is coming off a great finish to the 2023 season.

Seattle’s team leader in strikeouts was third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who fanned at a 30.8% clip. Suárez has led the American League in total strikeouts in consecutive seasons. He hit .232/.323/.391 in 2023 overall, roughly league average offense when accounting for Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.

While Dipoto didn’t mention Suárez, it doesn’t seem out of the question the Mariners shop him before the final guaranteed season of his contract. To that end, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported this evening that the Blue Jays are eyeing Suárez as a potential third base option if they lose Matt Chapman in free agency. Were Seattle to move Suárez, they’d likely need to backfill via trade or free agency. Jeimer Candelario is the top alternative to Chapman on the open market.

In other news, Dipoto confirmed the team continues to have interest in re-signing Tom Murphy (via Divish). The longtime #2 catcher hit free agency, leaving Seattle with just minor league trade pickup Blake Hunt on the 40-man roster behind Cal Raleigh. The M’s are very likely to bring in a veteran catcher this winter. Murphy, who hit .290/.335/.538 in 47 games before a season-ending thumb fracture, has a shot at a two-year pact.

Mariners Do Not Extend Qualifying Offer To Teoscar Hernández

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The Mariners have decided not to extend a $20.325MM qualifying offer to outfielder Teoscar Hernández, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.

This is arguably the most surprising news to come out of the qualifying offer deadline, which just passed at 4:00 pm Central. All seven players to receive the QO were obvious locks, but it seemed possible that some other pitchers and position players could be on that list. Hernández seemed like one of the more likely QO candidates but will now head to the open market unencumbered.

An impending free agent is eligible for a qualifying offer if they just spent the entire season with only one club and have not received one previously in their career. If the player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties while the player’s previous club gets draft pick compensation.

Hernández had a bit of a down year in 2023, relative to his own standards, but had been one of the better sluggers in baseball over the previous three seasons. He hit 73 home runs for the Blue Jays from 2020 to 2022, slashing .283/.333/.519 in the process. That amounted to a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter in that stretch, putting him in the top 20 of all qualified hitters in that time.

The Jays traded him to the Mariners going into 2023 and then his production slipped. He still hit 26 home runs but his strikeout rate jumped to 31.1%, after being at a combined 27.2% over the previous three years. His .258/.305/.435 line translated to a wRC+ of just 105. That was obviously not what the M’s envisioned when they traded for him, but it’s possible their pitching-friendly home park played a role, as he had a wRC+ of just 81 at home for the year but 126 on the road.

The upcoming free agent market is generally weak in terms of impact bats, despite being headlined by Shohei Ohtani. Despite his down year, Hernández was going to be one of the most attractive bats available. It was generally expected that the Mariners would extend the qualifying offer to him and he probably still could have found decent offers in free agency. But they evidently believed there was risk of him accepting the QO in the event they offered it. Since they chose not to do so suggests that having him back in Seattle next year at a salary of $20.325MM was an undesirable outcome for them.

That perhaps doesn’t bode well for next year’s budget for the club, but it’s also possible they are trying to keep powder dry at this early stage of the offseason. The Mariners, along with many other clubs, are expected to pursue Ohtani as a Plan A this winter with all other options Plan B. As the Mariners assess their odds in that pursuit, perhaps they didn’t want to risk having a sizable chunk of their budget already spoken for by Hernández.

This only helps him out as a free agent, since receiving a QO has a negative effect on a player’s earning power. Being saddled with draft pick forfeiture will cause some clubs to lower how much they are willing to spend on a given player while some other will steer clear of such players completely. By avoiding the QO, Hernández can avoid any such worries.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Twins Inquiring On Teoscar Hernandez, Ty France

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According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Twins are among the teams that have checked in with the Mariners regarding outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and infielder Ty France in their search for a right-handed bat.

Adding some right-handed thump to the lineup is a sensible choice for Minnesota. The Twins’ collective 82 wRC+ against southpaws this season is better than only the Rockies in MLB, so an additional righty bat to go along with Donovan Solano against left-handed pitching could provide a boost to their lineup, particularly with Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis on the injured list. While both Hernandez (93 wRC+) and France (98 wRC+) are having down seasons relative to their career norms, both players are still crushing left-handed pitching this year, with wRC+ figures of 142 and 129, respectively.

As a rental, Hernandez figures to be the cheaper bat in terms of acquisition cost, though he’d join an already-crowded outfield mix in Minnesota that already features Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner, to say nothing of the possibility that Byron Buxton gets healthy enough to return to center field at some point this season. What’s more, Hernandez leads the majors in strikeouts this season, and adding another whiff-prone bat to a lineup that already includes Gallo further muddies the fit between Minnesota and the 30-year-old slugger.

That could leave France as the cleaner fit in Minnesota, where he would provide the Twins with a long term, right-handed complement to Alex Kirilloff at first base that they’ve been searching for since the offseason. While France also has experience at second and third base in his career, given the club’s abundant options at the position (including Solano, Kyle Farmer, Edouard Julien, and Jorge Polanco) it seems likely France’s playing time would primarily come at his natural position of first base.

Phillies, Blue Jays, Giants Have Shown Interest In Teoscar Hernandez

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The Phillies, Giants and Blue Jays are among the teams that touched base with the Mariners regarding Teoscar Hernández, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morosi indicates upwards of six teams have been involved and that a deal involving Hernández before tomorrow’s deadline looks increasingly probable.

None of that registers as a surprise. Seattle has hinted at potentially dealing short-term veterans for a couple weeks. They began that by sending Paul Sewald to Arizona for three controllable hitters this afternoon. While Sewald had an extra year of arbitration, Hernández is a few months from the open market.

The veteran outfielder is amidst a down season. He carries a .238/.288/.408 batting line through 441 plate appearances into play Monday night. He’s connected on 16 home runs but is striking out a lofty 32% clip, his highest mark since 2019. Hernández got off to a dreadful start to his Seattle tenure. He’d seemed to turn the corner with a .303/.376/.573 showing in June before a massive .198/.248/.287 slump this month.

Despite the middling season, Hernández is a straightforward change-of-scenery target. He hit .283/.333/.519 through his last three years in Toronto. While his offensive numbers have collapsed this year, he’s arguably playing the best defense of his career. Hernández has rated as a below-average right fielder for the bulk of his career but gotten solid marks (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 run above average per Statcast) across 801 1/3 innings there this year.

Each of the teams linked to his market has expressed an interest in adding some right-handed punch. It’d be a bit surprising to see the Blue Jays circle back on Hernández nine months after trading him, but the acquisition cost this summer would be much lower than what they received from Seattle (reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko). Toronto has left-handed hitting Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt at left field and designated hitter, respectively, though Varsho has been better against same-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia is openly targeting a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. With Bryce Harper able to play first base, they’re looking to move Kyle Schwarber to DH and add some pop in left field. They’ve also been linked to the Mets’ Tommy Pham and Red Sox’s Adam Duvall.

San Francisco and Seattle are frequent trade partners. They just lined up a deal this evening that sent AJ Pollock and Mark Mathias to the Bay Area. Pollock is having a poor enough season that Hernández could still be of interest. San Francisco will be without Mitch Haniger into September and just placed Mike Yastrzemski on the injured list for the third time this season. They have Austin Slater on hand as a right-handed hitting outfielder but enough short-term uncertainty in left field to make Hernández a potential fit.

Hernández is making $14MM this season. He’s due around $4.67MM through year’s end.

Mariners Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On Ty France, Teoscar Hernández

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The Mariners are listening to offers on certain players on their roster, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today listing Ty France, Teoscar Hernández and Paul Sewald among those being discussed. Their openness on Sewald was reported last week.

The fact that the Mariners are listening to offers isn’t necessarily a shock, as most front offices these days take the approach that no one on the roster is untouchable and it’s worth hearing out all offers as a way to gauge the market. But the Mariners are in a position where dealing major league players might not be an outlandish thought.

Their 54-51 record is solid, but has them in fourth place in a strong American League West. The teams above them in the division have already been some of the most aggressive this week, with the Rangers recently acquiring Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton while the Angels grabbed Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. The Astros haven’t been quite so bold but did get Kendall Graveman from the White Sox, in addition to welcoming Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez back from the injured list.

The Mariners aren’t totally buried, currently sitting 5.5 games back in the division and 4.5 in the Wild Card race. FanGraphs still gives them a 16.9% chance of making the playoffs while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 15.2%. But since their position isn’t strong enough to be firm buyers, they might have to at least consider some selling, something that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently admitted.

Listening on Hernández is understandable, as he’s an impending free agent. This summer’s market is generally considered to be light on impact bats, which could lead to the M’s receiving notable offers that help them in the future. But they would have to weigh those offers against hurting their chances here in 2023.

Acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, Hernández isn’t having his best season. His .238/.288/.408 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 93, or seven percent below league average. But he hit .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+. The M’s were undoubtedly hoping for something more when they gave up Erik Swanson and Adam Macko for Hernández, especially considering his $14MM salary, but perhaps they can still recoup something before the deadline. Despite his diminished production, perhaps some club is willing to bank on his track record, especially with the aforementioned market conditions.

France would be a very different situation, as he can still be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. Like Hernández, he’s having a down year relative to his own previous production, having hit .285/.355/.443 from 2020 to 2022 for a 128 wRC+ but just .253/.324/.367 this year for a 100 wRC+. That means that trading him now would be selling low and also punting on a player who could still help in the seasons to come. He’s making $4.1MM this year and will be due raises in the next two years before reaching free agency after 2025.

The Mariners have received a tremendous showing from Mike Ford recently, who was added to their roster at the start of June and has hit 11 home runs since then, serving primarily as the club’s designated hitter. His .238/.302/.540 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 131. He comes with three further seasons of arbitration control, so perhaps the M’s might have some willingness to cash in France and try to put Ford at first base, but that would be a risky path. Ford’s breakout this year has come in just 139 plate appearances while he’s continued to strike out at a 35.3% clip and see 30.6% of his fly balls clear the fence. Since he hit .201/.301/.387 in 468 plate appearances prior to this year, he seems ripe for some regression.

The M’s might have to make some difficult decisions between now and the deadline, given the spot they’re in. They’re not totally out of it but would have to leapfrog teams like the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox before they’re even on the edge of a playoff spot. They could decide to make some moves that help them next year, though it might involve further limiting their chances here in 2023. It might also require them to sell low on players like Hernández and France. But the trade market was already light on impact bats, even before the Cubs pulled Cody Bellinger off the market. It’s understandable why the M’s might want to assess their options and see what a light selloff can do for them, but it would surely be a tough pill to swallow after they made the postseason last year for the first time since 2001.

Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald

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There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.

Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.

Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.

The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.

Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.

While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.

Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.

The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.

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