Report: Cardinals Ownership More Willing To Include Money In Trades
Everything coming out of St. Louis suggests that the Cardinals are at a major pivot point for the franchise. They are entering what could be a multi-year rebuild period as they focus on player development more than short-term contention. That has been the case for about a year already but all signs suggest the club will be leaning harder in that direction. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the ownership will now be more willing to eat money in trades, in order to extract greater returns.
That reporting aligns with comments this week from Chaim Bloom, the new president of baseball operations. “As far as cash being a lever on the trade front, that should never be off the table,” he said, per Woo. “Obviously, you’d prefer not to do that, but you could end up in a situation where adding cash to make a preferred deal work just makes sense.”
Between Bloom’s comments and Woo’s reporting about ownership, it seems the franchise is aligned. That should only add to the sense that highly-paid players like Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray are more likely to be moved this offseason than they were last winter.
A year ago, the Cards made it clear that they were beginning this reset period. That initially made it seem likely that veteran players like Arenado, Gray and Willson Contreras could be logical trade candidates. However, Gray and Contreras quickly indicated that they wanted to stay in St. Louis. Arenado was a bit more open to a trade but had a narrow list of five clubs he considered acceptable landing spots and ultimately wasn’t traded.
The club’s rebuilding plans now seem to be more firmly in place and both Arenado and Gray have publicly expressed a greater willingness to waive their no-trade clauses this time around. Contreras seems less interested in leaving but didn’t completely discount the possibility.
That’s a good start for the Cardinals but eating money will be helpful to getting deals done. Gray is still a good pitcher and just wrapped a solid season, middling earned run average notwithstanding. Though he allowed 4.28 earned runs per nine over 180 2/3 innings, his .329 batting average on balls in play probably inflated that a bit. His 26.7% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate were all strong marks. ERA estimators like his 3.39 FIP and 3.29 SIERA suggest he was more his old self than the ERA itself would indicate.
Even if clubs are willing to overlook the ERA, the contract is an obstacle. His three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals was heavily backloaded. He made just $10MM in 2024 and $25MM this year. He’ll then make $35MM next year, followed by a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option. If that option is picked up, Gray can then opt out.
At this point, there is just one more guaranteed season left on the deal but with $40MM still to be paid out. The option doesn’t really add any extra upside because of that opt-out. Despite Gray’s talents, $40MM for one year of a pitcher is a lot. That kind of average annual value has been reserved for ace-type pitchers. Even if it were a fair price for Gray’s services, eating more money to extract more prospect capital is a sensible tactic for a club focused on the long term.
Arenado is going to make $27MM next year, though the Rockies are going to pay $5MM of that and $6MM is deferred. He’ll then make $15MM in 2027. That works out to less than $20MM annually but his stock is down after some rough years at the plate. He hit just .237/.289/.377 for a wRC+ of 84 this year and was barely above league average in the prior two campaigns. He still gets good grades for his glovework but isn’t the MVP candidate he once was.
Other teams will have different valuations of what they expect from him going forward, but as mentioned with Gray, any money that the Cardinals are willing to eat should increase what teams are willing to give up.
With Contreras, as mentioned, a trade seems less likely before even considering the money but it could happen. He is still owed $41.5MM over the next two years. That’s an $18MM salary next year, $18.5MM in 2027, and then a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option for 2028.
He has been moved from the catcher position to first base. He got decent grades for his glovework there this year, getting credit for six Outs Above Average, while Defensive Runs Saved had him just below par at -1. The bat is still strong, as he hit .257/.344/.447 this year for a 124 wRC+. Those numbers are all close to his career marks, where he has a .258/.352/.459 batting line and 122 wRC+.
Though he’s going into his age-34 season, the deal isn’t bad. Christian Walker just got $60MM over three years from the Astros going into his age-34 campaign. But even if the Contreras deal isn’t underwater, other teams may not give up much for it unless the Cards pay it down somewhat.
Last winter, the Cards seemed to be more motivated by salary relief. Arenado was still owed roughly $60MM over three years when they lined up a trade with the Astros. Arenado vetoed that deal but reporting indicated the Cards were only going to eat about $5MM per season, leaving the Astros on the hook for about $45MM. It’s unknown what the Cards were going to receive in that trade but is was likely going to be a salary dump deal. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. later said they would have to find cuts elsewhere if they didn’t move Arenado, though that didn’t really end up happening.
Per RosterResource, the Cardinals had a $144MM payroll in 2025. Thanks to some trades and some expiring contracts, they are projected for just $75MM next year. Arbitration salaries for players like Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar could push that up but those players are themselves candidates to be traded this winter. Perhaps that lighter payroll is what opened the path for the Cards to worry less about cost savings this time, which could increase their chances of adding meaning young talent to their pipeline.
There will be non-payroll expenditures, however. Woo reports that the club is planning to make more investments in the fields of analytics, player development and scouting. There’s also some uncertainty with the club’s TV deal. The Cards reached a new agreement with Main Street Sports, formerly known as Diamond Sports Group, to be on the FanDuel Sports Network in 2025. Woo writes that the deal contains option provisions after each season. She says that no major shake-up is expected but that some renegotiations could take place.
Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images
Willson Contreras Will Consider Waiving No-Trade Clause But Prefers To Remain With Cardinals
Willson Contreras‘ five-year, $87.5MM contract with the Cardinals included a full no-trade clause for the first four seasons, and Contreras indicated after last season that he wasn’t willing to consent to a deal. The first baseman has slightly changed his stance now, telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Jeff Jones) that still wants to remain in St. Louis, but is willing to consider waiving his no-trade protection.
“If something comes up to [president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom] that makes a lot of sense for him and the organization, and it makes sense for me and my future, how about we talk about that?” Contreras said. “But as of right now, I would just like to be part of the [rebuilding] process.”
Contreras noted that he isn’t requesting a trade, and already shared his thoughts about staying with the club in a meeting with Bloom on Friday. “I’d like to be a part of a young team that needs to have some kind of experience around them. That’s what I expressed, but I understand the part of the business of the team, and we just came to an agreement there,” the first baseman said.
We’ve already seen Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado each indicate that they’d be more open to waiving their own no-trade protection this winter, in the wake of the incoming Cardinals rebuild. Gray is under contract just through the 2026 season but at the hefty price tag of $40MM ($35MM in backloaded salary and at least $5MM in a buyout of a club option for 2027). Arenado is owed $42MM through the 2027 season, though that number is reduced by deferred money and $5MM from the Rockies as per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis.
Contreras is just finishing the third season of his five-year deal, and he is owed $41.5MM in remaining salary — $18MM in 2026, $18.5MM in 2027, and there is a $5MM buyout of a $17.5MM club option for 2028. Of these three pricey St. Louis veterans, Contreras brings less of a one-off luxury tax hit than Gray, and he has been a much more effective hitter than Arenado over the last three seasons.
A right shoulder strain ended Contreras’ 2025 season earlier in September, so his season numbers stand at 20 homers and a .257/.344/.447 slash line across 563 plate appearances. Contreras’ time with the Cardinals has been largely defined by the team’s downturn in performance and the defensive questions that led to his move from catcher to first base, but the veteran has continued to hit — he has batted .261/.358/.459 over 1416 PA in a Cardinals uniform, which translates to a 129 wRC+.
Those numbers play better from the catcher position than at first base, so hypothetically, a trade suitor might have interest in shifting Contreras back into at least a part-time role behind the plate. Given the lack of catching depth around the league, a team might also have more interest in taking on more of Contreras’ salary if he is being deployed to fill a larger hole at catcher than at first base.
As Jones observes, trading Contreras would allow the Cardinals to find more playing time for multiple players on the roster. Alec Burleson would likely take over most of the time at first base, which in turns opens up at-bats at DH and in the outfield for others.
That said, Contreras ultimately has the final word due to his contract. His full no-trade protection only lasts through 2026, as Contreras can then submit a no-trade list of 10 teams. The Cardinals could conceivably stick with Contreras through the coming season and then perhaps look more seriously at trade talks next winter, when the team will have slightly more freedom in working out a deal with at least 19 teams.
Even if Contreras has left the door slightly ajar to a trade, he made it clear that he is happy in St. Louis and would embrace the idea of helping mentor a new generation of Cardinals.
“I understand that it might take three to five years to have a playoff team or a team that can contend to the World Series, and I said even if I don’t make it there, and you guys make it to a World Series, I feel like I can be proud of that, just because I want to help young guys to better develop and have a better idea of what baseball is besides going to analyze stats,” Contreras said.
Cardinals Shut Willson Contreras Down For Remainder Of Season
10:58am: Manager Oli Marmol confirmed to the team’s beat that Contreras is done for the season (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). The expectation is that rest will allow Contreras’ strain to heal, and the team did not want to risk him playing through the issue and further aggravating it.
10:43am: The Cardinals announced Wednesday that first baseman Willson Contreras has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain. Infielder Jose Fermin is up from Triple-A Memphis to take his spot on the roster. While there’s technically still enough time on the calendar for him to return for the team’s final series (the IL move is retroactive to yesterday), Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that this IL placement will end the season for Contreras.
Assuming that’s the case, it’s been yet another solid year for the 33-year-old Contreras. The catcher-turned-first-baseman hit .257/.344/.447 (123 wRC+) with 20 homers, 31 doubles and a triple in 563 turns at the plate. His first full year at a new position has generally gone well, too. Defensive Runs Saved (+1) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+6) both feel that Contreras has been not only passable at first base but better than average. One would imagine that his defensive chops could continue to improve as he further acclimates to his new home on the diamond, though he’ll also play next season at age 34, so there’ll be a give-and-take between Contreras getting more experience at first base but also slowing down as he ages into his mid-30s.
Contreras joined the Cardinals in the 2022-23 offseason, signing a five-year, $87.5MM contract in free agency. He’s still guaranteed $41.5MM over the remaining two seasons of that contract, which will be paid out in the form of an $18MM salary in 2026, an $18.5MM salary in 2027 and a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option for the 2028 campaign. If he continues to play quality defense at first base and produce like he has at the plate through the first three seasons of this contract, there’s a good chance the Cards would exercise that option, given that it’s a net $12.5MM decision once factoring in the buyout.
It’ll be another offseason punctuated by rumblings about potential trades of veterans in St. Louis this winter. Nolan Arenado candidly acknowledged as much this week, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested just yesterday that Brendan Donovan‘s name is likely to pop up in offseason rumors as well. Contreras has complete control over his own fate, however, by virtue of the full no-trade clause that was negotiated into that free agent contract.
Contreras made clear last offseason that he wasn’t keen on waiving that clause, so it’s fair to expect that’ll be the case again this offseason as well. It’s always possible that trades of other players on the roster and/or changes to the coaching staff could lead to a change of heart, but there’s been no indication thus far that Contreras would green-light a trade out of St. Louis.
Willson Contreras’ Suspension Reduced To Four Games
Willson Contreras’ suspension was reduced to four games on appeal, writes Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals first baseman had initially been hit with a six-game ban for his outburst towards umpire Derek Thomas after he was ejected from a game against the Pirates on August 25.
Contreras will need to begin serving the suspension tonight. He’ll miss this weekend’s series against the Giants and Monday’s opener in Seattle. The Cardinals are 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race. San Francisco has pulled within four games of a playoff spot after winning nine of their last 10. The Mariners are clinging to postseason position in the American League. These have the potential to be important games.
Nolan Gorman moves across the diamond from third base tonight against Giants’ righty Carson Seymour. The Cards kicked Thomas Saggese from second to third base. José Fermín draws into the lineup at the keystone as the #9 hitter. Contreras was suspended for an on-field violation, which means the Cardinals cannot replace him. They’ll play the next four games with a four-man bench while their opponents have a fifth position player with the expanded roster.
St. Louis made one additional move today. Catcher Yohel Pozo returns from the seven-day concussion list, so the Cards optioned rookie infielder César Prieto back to Triple-A Memphis. The Cardinals now have three catchers with Pozo returning to join Pedro Pages and rookie Jimmy Crooks. That might only be the arrangement through the weekend. Katie Woo of The Athletic notes that outfielder Alec Burleson is expected to be activated from the injured list when first eligible on Monday.
Willson Contreras Issued Six-Game Suspension
Major League Baseball has announced that Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras has received a six-game suspension and an undisclosed fine in relation to his behavior during last night’s game. Contreras is appealing the suspension, so he can continue playing with the club until that process has been completed.
Contreras got into an argument with the home plate umpire Derek Thomas during last night’s game, as seen in this clip from MLB.com. After getting ejected, Contreras was obviously furious and had to be held back by his fellow Cardinals. While departing the field, he tossed his bat in the general direction of the umpire, though it hit hitting coach Brant Brown instead.
It’s not surprising that Contreras has been suspended, nor is it a shock that he is appealing. It’s quite common for players to appeal when given a suspension. The calendar also gives him a few reasons to want to avoid serving the penalty right away. For one thing, the Cards are still hanging around the playoff race, just 5.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Appealing the suspension allows him to keep playing as the club tries to stay alive.
Also, rosters expand on September 1st, from 26 to 28. That’s notable in this instance as a team has to play shorthanded when a player is suspended for an on-field infraction such as this. If the suspension were to be served now, the Cards would have to play with a 25-man roster. If it is served in September, then they could play with 27 guys.
The Cards are using Iván Herrera as the designated hitter almost every day, with Contreras at first most of the time. That means Alec Burleson is often in left field, where he’s not a great defender. Whenever Contreras serves his suspension, Burleson could spend more time at first base, which could open more outfield playing time for Nathan Church, José Fermín or Garrett Hampson. It’s also possible that Victor Scott II could be reinstated from the IL when roster expand.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images
Poll: Can Willson Contreras Get Back On Track?
When the Cardinals announced over the offseason that they were moving Willson Contreras to first base, it came as something of a surprise given that they we just two years into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the shoes Yadier Molina had stood in for the past 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to replace one of the best defenders in baseball history behind the dish was a bold move, and while Contreras hit an excellent .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate did not come without controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly during his first season with the club after complaints about his glove. Last year, he missed time with a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the organization suggested he move closer to the plate to improve his defense.
If those controversies set the table for the decision to move Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the club’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making solid cases for more playing time made the possibility that much more realistic. After all, a position change for Contreras would allow the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth movement without needing to pull off a trade, and there was at least a possibility that Contreras’s strong bat from his first two seasons with the club could blossom even further if he didn’t need to split his focus between hitting and catching.
Unfortunately, that’s not how things have gone so far. In 24 games this season, Contreras has slashed just .200/.269/.305 this year. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not only well below average but also extremely uncharacteristic of him. While questions about Contreras’s defensive abilities have dogged him since the early days of his MLB career with the Cubs, his bat has never been in doubt as he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate by wRC+ in every single year of his career until now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his career, Contreras had elevated his game to another level since the start of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line across the past three seasons.
Has all of that changed in his age-33 season? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, although moving to first base should at least theoretically help preserve Contreras’s health. The frustrating reality of the veteran’s situation is that, while below-average offense can be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first position where he’ll need offensive results in order to stick as a regular. That’s even more true with youngsters like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker ready to step in and take their own shots at the first base job if given the opportunity.
As lackluster as Contreras’s work at the dish has been so far this year, it’s not as if all hope is lost. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this year matches his career low, and if it bounces back to something closer to his .309 career level, that would go a long way to lifting his production. Another reason for optimism is that he’s still putting the barrel on the ball fairly often. While his 9.1% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate this year are the lowest figures he’s posted in either category since 2018, they both remain solid. When combined with his top-of-the-line bat speed, it’s easy to imagine Contreras being able to generate more power than he’s shown so far.
On the other hand, Contreras is already more than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a first baseman, and he’s currently matching his career-high in strikeout rate (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low walk rate of 6.7%. Contreras has always been a bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season where he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break before hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 across his final 50 games, so it stands to reason that he may well be just one hot streak away from getting back to being the bat he’s shown himself to be throughout his career. Even with that in mind, the signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power are concerning. That’s especially true when combined with his age and the years of wear and tear he accumulated behind the plate.
How do MLBTR readers think the rest of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he be able to bounce back and post numbers similar to what he’s offered in each of the last three seasons? Or will his first year as a first baseman be the worst offensive season of his career? Have your say in the poll below:
How will Willson Contreras perform for the rest of the year?
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Contreras will rebound enough to be a roughly average hitter, but not post the impactful numbers he's offered in recent years. 41% (1,156)
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Contreras will bounce back and post a strong final line close to that of his previous seasons with the Cardinals. 34% (961)
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Contreras's down season will continue and he'll post the first below-average season of his career. 24% (679)
Total votes: 2,796
Ivan Herrera Out At Least A Month With Bone Bruise
The Cardinals placed catcher Iván Herrera on the 10-day injured list this morning. His stay will last well beyond the minimum. Manager Oli Marmol told the team’s beat that Herrera was diagnosed with a bone bruise in his left knee (link via MLB.com’s John Denton). He’ll be out for at least a month.
Herrera was out to a blistering start to the season, headlined by his three-homer performance last Wednesday against the Angels. That was remarkably the first three-homer game by a catcher in the franchise’s history, which goes back to the 1880s. The 24-year-old is hitting .381 with four longballs in 24 plate appearances overall. Herrera hit .301/.372/.428 over a career-high 72 games last season, so there’s reason to believe he could be one of the better offensive catchers in baseball.
Marmol confirmed that they’re not considering Willson Contreras as a backup option behind the plate. That was more or less established when St. Louis selected Yohel Pozo from Triple-A Memphis as the corresponding move for Herrera’s IL placement. St. Louis will stick to the plan of keeping Contreras as their everyday first baseman. Pozo will back up Pedro Pagés for the time being.
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Denton and other reporters that the front office will keep an eye on the catching market. That’d presumably be strictly at depth options, as they’ll want to keep Herrera’s path to regular playing time open once he’s healthy. Former fourth-round pick Jimmy Crooks is one of the organization’s more talented prospects as well. He’s getting his first real look at Triple-A pitching after a .321/.410/.498 showing last year in Double-A. The Cards didn’t want to rush him to the majors in response to the Herrera injury, but they could look for an experienced catcher to add organizational depth alongside Crooks in Memphis.
MLBTR Podcast: Roki Sasaki, Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Roki Sasaki to be posted for MLB clubs (1:45)
- Gerrit Cole‘s weird non-opt-out situation with the Yankees (17:50)
- The Cardinals might trade Nolan Arenado but might keep Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray (24:20)
- The Braves and Angels swap Jorge Soler and Griffin Canning (33:05)
- The Dodgers are moving Mookie Betts back to the infield (41:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Breaking Down The Top 50 Free Agents List – listen here
- The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits – listen here
- The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Cards Moving Willson Contreras To First Base; Contreras Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause
As he heads into the third season of his five-year, $87.5MM contract, Willson Contreras is headed for a position change. The Cardinals plan to move Contreras from catcher to first base next season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters at the GM Meetings today that the move to a first base/designated hitter role was made with Contreras’ long-term health and longevity in mind, adding that he’s “unlikely” to catch much at all in 2025 (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic).
Mozeliak added that Contreras was quite clear about his desire to remain in St. Louis even as the team embarks on something of a reset (via Woo). That makes it unlikely he’d be willing to waive his full no-trade clause this offseason. It’s a similar story with right-hander Sonny Gray, it seems. Mozeliak didn’t directly state as much, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Gray has also expressed a preference to remain with the Cardinals. Like Contreras, Gray has full no-trade protection.
The move to first base for Contreras opens the path for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages to split time behind the plate. It’s perhaps possible that an injury to one or both players could result in Contreras suiting up and crouching behind home plate once again, but it seems the organization’s preference is a shift away from that role. It’s the latest in a winding saga with the Cardinals’ seeming distaste for Contreras’ defense — one that began just weeks into his first season with the club.
The Cardinals announced early in the 2023 season that Contreras would be moving off catcher for at least a few weeks. At the time, Mozeliak stressed that Contreras hadn’t caught his last game for the club but added that the team had grown accustomed to Yadier Molina‘s glovework behind the dish, adding that “this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.” It was a stunning announcement less than two months into a five-year contract, and one that generated even more confusion when Contreras returned to catching just one week later.
With the contract now 40% complete, Contreras appears ticketed for a more permanent move off the position. The 32-year-old has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher, but the ongoing questions about the Cardinals’ satisfaction with his defense (or lack thereof) has at multiple points prompted questions about why the team signed him to a five-year deal in the first place. Those questions will only grow louder now. Statcast has generally given Contreras plus grades for his throwing and rated him as a solid blocker, though his framing skills have been panned. He’s lived up to his end of the deal at the plate, however, hitting a combined .263/.367/.468 in 853 plate appearances. A broken forearm and finger, among other smaller injuries, have limited his time on the field, but Contreras has generally been one of the Cardinals’ best hitters when healthy.
That’ll presumably continue as he moves into a new role on the field. Contreras’ position shift seems likely to close the door on a potential reunion with free agent Paul Goldschmidt, who’ll now look to rebound elsewhere after a disappointing finish to his St. Louis tenure. It’ll also finally give the 24-year-old Herrera a crack at the starting catcher role for which he’s appeared ready for several years.
Herrera was thought to be a potential heir to Molina behind the plate, but any such hopes were dashed when the Cards originally signed Contreras. He’s a .289/.365/.398 hitter in 325 major league plate appearances (117 wRC+) and carries a stout .281/.414/.453 slash in 176 Triple-A contests. Pages, 26, hit .238/.281/.376 in 218 big league plate appearances in 2024. The righty hitter did post solid offensive numbers as a 24-year-old in Double-A in 2023, but scouting reports on him have questioned his hit tool while characterizing him as a likelier platoon option or backup.
Turning to Gray, his apparent desire to remain in St. Louis makes him a less obvious trade candidate than he was entering the winter. The Cards were reported to be open to offers on Gray even before they publicly revealed their plan for a step-back to focus on player development. Gray’s no-trade clause and heavily backloaded contract were always significant roadblocks in a potential trade, but ones that potentially seemed surmountable. He was quite selective about his destination in free agency, preferring to be relatively close to his Nashville home. Still, there was some thought that a trade to a geographically close club might hold appeal.
Working out such a swap would’ve been complicated. Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract paid him just $10MM in year one. He’s owed $65MM over the course of the next two seasons. That’s a huge number for an acquiring club to take on, particularly if said club has luxury-tax concerns (e.g. the Braves). A team acquiring a contract is taxed on the remainder of the deal rather than the original AAV, meaning a new club would be on the hook for a $32.5MM luxury hit in acquiring Gray. Those hurdles are all rendered moot, however, if Gray prefers to remain in St. Louis and see how things play out in the short-term.
Mozeliak told reporters today that he spoke to all of his players with no-trade clauses. That means he’s at least broached the possibility with third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s not yet clear, however, whether Arenado is as convicted in his desire to remain on board through the team’s reset. Certainly, the lack of comments or concrete reporting on the matter doesn’t mean Arenado is requesting or even open to a trade, but the lack of information on him will fuel natural speculation. Arenado’s trade from Colorado to St. Louis, after all, was prompted by his frustration over the Rockies’ inability to field a competitive roster. Playing for a contending club was a priority for him — so much so that he passed on an opt-out opportunity in his contract to remain in St. Louis due in large part to their status as perennial contenders.
Arenado now has three years and $74MM remaining on his contract. The Rockies are on the hook for $5MM of that sum. He’s had two straight pedestrian seasons at the plate, batting .269/.320/.426 since 2023. That’s still slightly better than league-average production by measure of wRC+ but is a far cry from his MVP-caliber 2022 showing when he hit .293/.358/.553. Whether he can bounce back as he heads into his age-34 campaign is an open question, but Arenado remains an elite defender with rare durability. He’s missed 28 games over the past two seasons but has played in 94.6% of his teams’ games dating back to the 2015 season.
Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter
The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.
Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.
Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.
If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.
With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.
Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.
Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.
While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.
Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.
None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.
Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.
Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.
After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.