Yu Darvish

AL Notes: Darvish, Mariners, Schoop, Kinsler

By Steve Adams | December 18, 2017 at 2:08pm CDT

The Twins “seem determined” to sign one of the top starters on the free-agent market and are showing increased optimism about their chances of landing right-hander Yu Darvish, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota thinks that Darvish’s relationship with GM Thad Levine and their emerging young core of position players will work in their favor in trying to lure Darvish to Minneapolis. That said, it doesn’t sound as if anything is close on the Darvish front, either. One Twins exec opined to Neal that Darvish could yet take another month to make his decision. Wherever he signs, Darvish’s contract will all but certainly represent a would-be record commitment for the Twins in free agency; the Twins have never signed a free agent for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract, though Darvish seems unlikely to top the Twins’ franchise record for a contract (Joe Mauer’s $184MM extension coming off his MVP 2009 campaign).

More out of the American League…

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto chatted with Larry Stone of the Seattle Times about his aggressive and active approach on the trade front, refuting the notion that he’s torn down the team’s farm system (a minor league system that was poor when he inherited it in the first place). “We have not emptied the farm system to go acquire veteran players to make a run at a postseason,” says Dipoto. “…[W]e have effectively moved players around the league to acquire players that are in their prime who are under team control, almost all of whom are in their 20s.” Indeed, Stone points out that the Mariners have quietly become the second-youngest team in their division, with only a few notable stars (Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano) much beyond the age of 30. “There are more ways to rebuild than ripping it down to the studs,” Dipoto says of his efforts to build a younger roster. I’d highly recommend a full read-through of Stone’s column, which is packed with quotes from Dipoto that provide insight into the Mariners’ process and his decision-making.
The Orioles have made surprisingly minimal efforts to extend second baseman Jonathan Schoop, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. If the O’s don’t approach Schoop about a long-term deal prior to the start of the 2018 season, they’ll be in a similar spot with him to the one they face with regard to Manny Machado right now, Encina observes. MLBTR projects Schoop to top $9MM in salary this coming season, so if he enters this year without an extension, there’ll be little cause for him to seriously entertain a long-term deal next winter when he’s just one year removed from hitting free agency in advance of his age-28 season with more than $15MM already in his back pocket. Encina, though, points out that the O’s haven’t brokered an extension with any of their young potential core pieces since Adam Jones in 2012, instead shelling out massive commitments to re-sign Chris Davis and (to a lesser extent) Darren O’Day and Mark Trumbo in free agency. Of course, it’s also worth noting that they likely dodged some bullets by eschewing such contracts for players like Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
The Tigers preferred the package of prospects that the Mets were willing to offer for Ian Kinsler to the package they received from the Angels, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. However, Kinsler would only waive his no-trade clause to approve a trade to the Angels, forcing GM Al Avila’s hand. Though Avila could’ve waited, Fenech opines that the GM made the right call to act when there was a trade scenario on the table rather than to wait for something unforeseen to arise. Meanwhile, Kinsler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that Justin Upton has been recruiting him since being traded to the Angels in August, and the Halos’ success in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes caught his attention as well: “Making moves this winter to push for the next level … That motivates a player like me.”

Pitching Rumblings: Twins, Darvish, Cishek, Cole, Mariners, Liriano, Watson

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2017 at 1:21pm CDT

While the market for starters is still fairly slow to develop, relievers have been flying off the board at the Winter Meetings. Here’s the latest chatter on some hurlers from around the game:

The Twins are sending signals that they’re serious about their pursuit of free agent righty Yu Darvish. As LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star-Tribune writes, skipper Paul Molitor says the organization has “targeted [Darvish] as somebody we have tremendous interest in.” That follows prior public indications of interest from GM Thad Levine, who, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press examines, has a longstanding relationship with Darvish. That piece is well worth a full read, if only for Berardino’s enjoyable chat with catcher Chris Gimenez, who worked closely with Darvish with the Rangers and has played most recently with the Twins.
Meanwhile, the Twins are also among the teams looking into righty Steve Cishek, according to Berardino (via Twitter). The sidearmer has been left as one of the top remaining free-agent setup men after a spate of signings at the Winter Meetings. He finished the 2017 season on a strong run with the Rays.
The Orioles have at least checked in on Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Certainly, Baltimore isn’t the only organization that would love to add Cole, whose name has arisen in chatter a few times in recent days. Whether the Bucs are really ready to deal him isn’t entirely clear; neither is it certain just what the club would seek in return. Yesterday, though, Buster Olney of ESPN.com gave perhaps the clearest indication yet that Pittsburgh may be prepared to strike an agreement, tweeting that there’s a belief from some around the game that Pittsburgh would pull the trigger if the right deal came across its desk.
Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto says his team is in the “red zone” on a deal, likely for a reliever, in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio tweets that Juan Nicasio is a “strongly rumored possibility,” though clearly that’s not a firm connection at this point. And it’s certainly worth noting that the M’s have, in fact, struck agreement on a trade since Dipoto went on the air — though it’s not clear whether the minor acquisition was the one he was referring to. Perhaps Dipoto was giving a nod to that swap, but it’s also possible there’s a more significant move still in store. Regardless, the M’s are clearly focused on pitching, as Dipoto has made clear and TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
The Astros are weighing a reunion with lefty Francisco Liriano, according to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Long a starter, the 34-year-old was added by the ’Stros at the 2017 trade deadline and moved into a relief role. He did not exactly thrive in that job initially, allowing seven earned runs and posting an ugly 11:10 K/BB ratio in his 14 1/3 frames over twenty appearances. Liriano will presumably also draw some looks from organizations that would propose to give him a shot at rediscovering his form as a starter.
Another lefty, Tony Watson, is a possible target for the Athletics, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The 32-year-old has plenty of late-inning experience and finished strong after a mid-season swap to the Dodgers. In twenty innings with L.A., Watson posted a 2.70 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

AL Central Notes: LoMo, Kinsler, Tigers, Greene, Darvish, Twins, Shaw

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2017 at 5:06pm CDT

If the Indians can’t re-sign Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison is on the team’s list of fallback options, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter). Morrison is coming off a career year and would require a solid multi-year commitment, though he would come with a lower price tag than the most established Santana. The Angels and Red Sox were rumored to have interest in Morrison earlier this winter.

Some more AL Central items…

The Ian Kinsler trade talks have reached the point where the Tigers have exchanged names with interested teams, GM Al Avila told reporters (including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press and MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery). Kinsler has been seen as one of the likeliest players to be dealt this offseason, and it seems like a trade could happen at any point. The Mets, Brewers, and Angels are teams with reported recent interest in Kinsler’s services. Should Kinsler be traded, Avila said the Tigers would likely sign a veteran “safety net” second baseman to compete with Dixon Machado in Spring Training, with Woodbery noting that such a veteran would probably be a minor league signing.
The Tigers are also getting some calls on Shane Greene, Avila said (hat tip to MLB.com’s Jason Beck). Greene’s first full-time season as a reliever delivered some good results, and he even recorded nine saves after stepping into the closer’s role in August. While Greene would be another good trade chip for the rebuilding Tigers, Avila said the interest in Greene was “not to the point where we felt it [a trade] was a good thing to do.”
The Twins have been in touch with their own free agents (including Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle and Chris Gimenez) as well as the agent of former Twins closer Brandon Kintzler, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports (Twitter link).
Interestingly, Gimenez has also been answering Yu Darvish’s questions about Minnesota, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. Gimenez was Darvish’s personal catcher when the two played together for the Rangers. The Twins are known to be exploring the possibility of making an uncharacteristic big splash by signing Darvish, and the pitcher is apparently also doing his homework on the club.
One name apparently not on Minnesota’s target list is veteran reliever Bryan Shaw, as Mike Berardino (Twitter link) reports that the Twins “haven’t shown much interest” in the righty.

NL West Notes: Headley, Padres, Darvish, Rockies, Davis

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2017 at 4:34pm CDT

Padres GM A.J. Preller discussed his team’s surprising acquisition of Chase Headley with reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), and the possibility exists that Headley will be flipped before Opening Day. “I talked to Chase this morning and explained to him that we’re going to look at the situation and figure out if there’s space for everybody, was very honest, telling him we’re going to talk to other clubs as well,” Preller said. Headley’s addition has also created a glut within San Diego’s infield, and Preller said that he has already received calls from teams about Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg, and Carlos Asuaje.

Some other rumblings from around the NL West…

The Dodgers are still in “active dialogue” with Yu Darvish, GM Farhan Zaidi told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters. Andrew Friedman said yesterday that the team was more focused on relievers than starters due to the number of depth rotation options already in the organization, though with Darvish’s market yet to fully develop, it only makes sense that L.A. would continue to check in with the ace righty. In regards to the Dodgers’ bullpen search, Zaidi noted that the team is looking for value additions rather than at the top of the market.
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich poured cold water on some speculation surrounding his team, telling Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (all Twitter links) and other reporters that the Rox aren’t involved in trade talks for Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Bridich also said that the club doesn’t have the payroll capability to shop at the very top of the free agent market for players like J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer. One player Colorado is involved with is Wade Davis, as Bridich confirmed that the team is still talking to the free agent closer.
The Padres’ rather surprising pursuit of Hosmer has drawn headlines, though Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller tweets that San Diego is more focused on either signing Zack Cozart or acquiring Freddy Galvis from the Phillies during the Winter Meetings. Either infielder would address a more pressing need at shortstop. Preller said (hat tip to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that the Padres have a list of eight or nine shortstop options that they feel could be acquired. Lin also hears from some rival officials that the Padres would possibly be open to dealing a young pitcher in exchange for a shortstop.

NL West News: Rodney, Bruce, Duggar, Cutch, Giants, Reynolds, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2017 at 5:00am CDT

Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that his team has kept in touch with Fernando Rodney. The veteran reliever was expected to personally attend the Winter Meetings to speak to clubs about a contract, though it isn’t known whether the D’Backs were one of those teams. Rodney signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Arizona last winter and turned into a bargain signing for the team, recording 39 saves to go along with a 4.23 ERA, 10.57 K/9 and 52.2% grounder rate.

Some more from around the NL West…

The Giants have some level of interest in Jay Bruce, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The slugger is known to be on the target list for at least four other teams, though it remains to be seen if the bidding will be high enough for Bruce to land his desired five-year contract. A right-handed bat would be a better fit within San Francisco’s heavily left-handed lineup, though Bruce would check a couple of boxes for the Giants as a power hitter and defensively-capable right fielder.
From that same Schulman piece, the Giants are impressed enough with prospect Steven Duggar that “it does affect how we view addressing that [center field] need this offseason,” GM Bobby Evans said. “It does give us a mindset more short term.” This would seem to lessen the chance that the Giants acquire names like Lorenzo Cain or Billy Hamilton, who have been both been linked to the team in rumors. Andrew McCutchen has also been mentioned as a possibility for the Giants, yet Schulman writes that “he is not viewed as a priority,” even though the Pirates outfielder is only under contract through the 2018 season and would seem to fit as a short-term answer. Duggar is expected to start the season in Triple-A but would seem to be on pace for a big league debut next year and potentially a regular role by 2019.
A big bat for third base or the corner outfield is the priority for the Giants at the Winter Meetings, Schulman tweets, and the team may have to sacrifice defense in order to land that type of hitter. San Francisco also wants to address the bullpen, though that will be dealt with later in the offseason.
The Rockies are interested in re-signing Mark Reynolds, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). GM Jeff Bridich has suggested that first base (or any type of bat) isn’t necessarily a priority for the team, though that hasn’t stopped the Rox from checking in on the likes of Carlos Santana or Jay Bruce. Reynolds would be a more affordable and familiar option for Colorado at first base, returning for a third year at Coors Field after hitting .274/.354/.471 with 44 homers over 1034 PA in 2016-17. Despite those slightly above-average hitting numbers, however, Reynolds has only been worth a total of 1.0 fWAR over those two seasons due to his strikeouts and lack of defensive or baserunning value.
It is “fair to say” that the Dodgers’ 2018 payroll will be lower than $237MM, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other media. Exceeding that figure would balloon the team’s luxury tax rate to 95 percent and drop their position in the June amateur draft back by 10 spots. Counting arbitration projections and money owed to players no longer on the roster, the Dodgers’ payroll stands at over $208MM for next season, so they do have some room to make upgrades though it seems unlikely that they’d take on any major salary commitments without first unloading some of their existing big contracts.
Also from Friedman, the Dodgers are prioritizing bullpen additions. Starting pitching doesn’t seem to be a need, as Friedman likes their current rotation depth and wants to give younger pitchers “a soft landing spot in the big leagues to go through their acclimation process. We have a talented enough group to ride that out a little bit.” As Gurnick notes, this makes it seem unlikely that L.A. would re-sign Yu Darvish. Of course, the Dodgers did make a push for one very notable starter in Shohei Ohtani, though that was a unique circumstance due to Ohtani’s minimal costs.

West Notes: Yu, G. Cole, Rangers, Stanton, Astros, Giants, Pads, A’s

By Connor Byrne | December 11, 2017 at 8:35pm CDT

The Rangers talked to the Pirates about acquiring right-hander Gerrit Cole, but those discussions didn’t go anywhere, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports (Twitter link). Given that the Rangers are in need of starters even after signing Doug Fister and Mike Minor, the possibility of them turning back to old friend and top free agent Yu Darvish has come up. General manager Jon Daniels revealed Monday that the Rangers and Darvish still have a strong relationship even after they traded him away last July, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram tweets. For his part, Darvish is interested in a reunion, agent Joel Wolfe told Wilson and other reporters (Twitter link). The potential of Texas deploying a six-man rotation doesn’t necessarily appeal to Darvish, though, despite the fact that he spoke in favor of that setup on multiple occasions in the past. “He’s one of those guys that would rather pitch on short rest than long rest,” Wolfe said.

Astros Considering Pursuit Of Top Starters

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2017 at 11:43am CDT

As the Astros prepare for a World Series title defense, they are at least weighing the possibility of adding a significant rotation piece, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, the club has “shown interest” in top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Possible trade targets such as Chris Archer could also be considered.

At this stage, it seems, that interest is mostly exploratory in nature. That’s not to diminish the importance of the report, though: the involvement of the ’Stros at the top of the rotation market could certainly have a significant bearing on how things shake out.

Though Houston’s payroll has continued to climb northward in recent years, the team’s successes have perhaps freed up some additional financial flexibility. Rosenthal also notes that the organization could find a taker for Collin McHugh — who’s projected to earn $4.8MM by MLBTR — should they make a big strike in the rotation.

On the one hand, this news hardly rates as a surprise. While the ’Stros staff has plenty of talent, particularly with Justin Verlander now on hand, it also comes with some questions. Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton have had some health concerns at times and Brad Peacock will need to prove his 2017 breakout is sustainable. Plus, with Dallas Keuchel slated for free agency next winter, there’s room to consider a long-term addition.

On the other, this is a bit of an interesting development. The unfortunate incident involving Yulieski Gurriel mocking Darvish during the World Series is one factor with regard to that particular possibility, though both players’ responses in the aftermath suggest it’s not an insurmountable barrier. Of greater importance, perhaps, is the fact that the Astros were so careful even when deciding to add Verlander out of concern for over-burdening their future payroll. Darvish and Arrieta are each already 31 years of age.

Then there’s the fact that the bullpen remains the obvious area to target. What’s most interesting about this report may be the possibility that the Astros would consider a major rotation upgrade to be a means of answering needs on the relief side — at least in part. With top youngsters such as Francis Martes and David Paulino climbing the ladder, there are plenty of avenues for creativity. Adding another quality starter would leave the organization with significant depth and flexibility to keep arms fresh through the season and, perhaps, enter a hypothetical postseason run with loads of interesting possibilities for handling a staff.

Latest On Pitching Plans For Rangers, Orioles Entering Winter Meetings

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2017 at 9:37am CDT

Every team in baseball is still looking for pitching, so in that regard the Rangers and Orioles don’t stand out. But these two organizations are similarly situated in some regards; notably, each came into the offseason with rosters that appear to be capable but not certain of contention along with clear needs for significant improvement in their starting rotations.

For Texas, the Winter Meetings offer an opportunity and a challenge to chart a course that won’t involve Shohei Ohtani. While the pursuit of the two-way Japanese star is over, the team is still considering some novel approaches to its rotation usage. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes, that might involve a six or even four-man rotation setup, depending in no small part upon the team’s eventual moves. Of course, Mike Minor and Doug Fister were already brought aboard, but that doesn’t mean the club is done adding.

Notably, the Rangers aren’t just looking at budget arms. According to Grant, the club has not only checked in on quality veterans like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, but has “maintained some contact” with former star Yu Darvish and hasn’t yet ruled out a surprise reunion. While he was dealt away at the trade deadline after the sides failed to line up on an extension, Darvish’s roots in Texas obviously trace back to his initial entry to the majors. Grant cautions that the team isn’t planning to lead the charge after Darvish or another top hurler, but it’s notable nonetheless that there seems to be serious consideration.

It’s less pressing in some regards, but the Rangers will also be looking to improve their relief corps. Late-inning pieces, in particular, would clearly be on the wish list. One player to keep an eye on, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter), is righty Brandon Kintzler. Of course, he has also been linked to quite a few other organizations. The sinkerballer has obviously boosted his stock quite a bit with a hefty groundball rate and steady work in high-leverage situations over the past two seasons. Japanese reliever Kazuhisa Makita could also represent a potential target for Texas, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes.

The situation is somewhat different for the Orioles, whose need for rotation pieces is even greater than that of the Rangers. With multiple pieces needed and relatively little available payroll space, Baltimore isn’t going to dabble at the top of the market, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes. That’s essentially the same conclusion reached by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, who says the Orioles “really like” Cobb but don’t expect to be able to afford him.

Wary of the risks of a long-term pitching contract, the O’s plan instead to look further down the pecking order of rotation pieces. As Connolly explains, though, several of those pitchers have already gone off the market with early deals. Veteran righty Andrew Cashner is perhaps the most logical remaining mid-tier target for the team, he notes, while a variety of less costly pitchers also figure to be strongly considered. Both reports suggest southpaw Jason Vargas as a plausible name to bolster the back end of the rotation, so he’s certainly a player to watch.

Quick Hits: Sports Science, Iglesias, Moylan, Rangers

By Kyle Downing | December 11, 2017 at 6:51am CDT

Though baseball hasn’t publicly embraced sports science the way it has analytics, the Giants are looking towards that very field as a way to gain an advantage. A fascinating article by Ian MacMahan of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended) provides some insight into the goals of Geoff Head, San Francisco’s newly-promoted assistant director of player development. “Everybody in baseball is tired by August,” Head tells MacMahan. “But if we are a little less fatigued than our opponent, it gives us an advantage.” The field of sports science focuses heavily on factors such as hydration, nutrition, workload and sleep; experts attempt to put together a formula that will keep players performing at their optimal levels as often as possible. According to Dr. Glenn Fleisig, the main difference between sports science and analytics is that sports science focuses on the “physical and medical aspects of a player,” as opposed to gameplay-based statistics. Less than half of all MLB teams currently have a dedicated sports scientist on their staff, and heavier use of sports science data could lead to big improvements by baseball players. As MacMahan puts it, “no one hits a home run sitting in the dugout nursing lead-filled legs and a tight back.”

Evan Woodbery of mlive.com provides some insight into the questions the Tigers face as the winter meetings commence. Most notably, Woodbery reports that there hasn’t been much buzz surrounding shortstop Jose Iglesias, who will become a free agent after the 2018 season. With no open spots on the 40-man roster, Iglesias is one player Detroit could consider moving in order to take advantage of having the first pick in baseball’s Rule 5 Draft this Thursday (As Woodbery points out, Ian Kinsler could also be on the move before then). Though Iglesias hit just .255/.288/.369 across 489 plate appearances last year, his excellent defense boosted his fWAR to 1.6. Because he’s projected to earn just $5.6MM in his final year of arbitration, there would seem to be some surplus value in his contract.
Reliever Peter Moylan is generating some interest, specifically from the Royals and Braves (hat tip to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston). As Drellich notes, Moylan held opposing right-handed hitters to a .161/.244/.236 batting line in 2017 (and may have also provided the Royals with some intangible value thanks to his espresso skills). The 38-year-old Moylan has typically been excellent against righties over the course of his 11-year major league career; he’s posted a 2.22 ERA against them in 280 innings with the Braves, Dodgers and Royals.
Even after losing out on Shohei Ohtani, the Rangers may still elect to use a non-traditional rotation, Evan Grant of SportsDay writes. Texas has reportedly kept contact with Yu Darvish, who has pitched in a six-man rotation in Japan and prefers such a setup; that might be one item which could help entice him to return to Arlington. Grant mentions Cole Hamels, who is generally a stickler for routine, as someone who could present a roadblock to such a strategy. However, based on Hamels’ quotes in the piece, he’d be willing to consider it if the modification helped bring about a postseason berth. “I’d love to get to the postseason again and win a World Series. That’s what I want to do here,” said Hamels. “If we can be stronger and healthier, not as worn down, you have the advantage.”

Free Agent Profile: Yu Darvish

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2017 at 11:11pm CDT

Yu Darvish hits the open market as both the top free agent pitcher available and, in MLBTR’s view, the top free agent of the entire 2017-18 class.

Strengths/Pros

After seven years of stardom in Japan, Darvish came to North American baseball with great fanfare in the 2011-12 offseason, and he has since lived up to the hype. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has a 3.42 ERA, 11.04 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate, and 19 fWAR, firmly establishing himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Tommy John surgery sidelined Darvish for all of 2015 and limited him to 100 1/3 innings in 2016, though he looked healthy in a full season of work last year plus an extended postseason run with the Dodgers. Darvish tossed a combined 201 1/3 innings between the regular season and playoffs, the second-highest total of his MLB career. Beyond just the workload, Darvish also set a new career best by averaging 94.2 mph on his fastball.

It’s worth noting that Darvish’s numbers with the Rangers prior to his deadline trade to L.A. were somewhat below his usual standard, thanks in part to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. While those home run issues continued after Darvish went from Texas to Los Angeles, he took quite well to pitching in the NL, posting better strikeout and walk rates as a Dodger than he did in 137 IP with the Rangers before the deal. His cumulative 10.08 K/9 for the season was the lowest of his career, though Darvish balanced that minor dip in punchouts with a 2.8 BB/9, continuing his trend of exhibiting better control throughout his big league career.

Since Darvish was dealt during the season, he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, and thus a team doesn’t have to give up any draft picks or international bonus money in order to sign him. This gives Darvish a slight edge over his top competition in free agency, as Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb all have QO compensation attached to their services.

Weaknesses/Cons

Beyond the obvious red flag of the Tommy John surgery, Darvish has made five other trips to the disabled list during his MLB career, ranging from minor neck and back stiffness to rather lengthier DL stints for elbow and shoulder issues. Though Darvish just turned 31 last August, he has 2127 2/3 regular-season innings on his arm between both Japan and North America, not to mention extensive postseason work. While he hasn’t really exhibited any signs of slowing down, it’s easy to see how a team could be worried about committing nine figures to Darvish into his mid-30’s.

The spike in home runs allowed isn’t completely out of the blue (Darvish had a 14.4% homer rate in 2013), and clearly he was far from the only pitcher who ran into trouble with the long ball during a record-setting season for homers. Darvish’s 33.1% hard-hit ball rate was also a career-high, however, and his curveball was a below-average pitch in 2017 after previously being one of the most devastating weapons in his seven-pitch arsenal.

No discussion of Darvish is complete with mentioning his awful World Series performance, though that could just be chalked up to the Astros having his number. Darvish was very effective in his two starts earlier in the playoffs, and given the small-sample size factor of all postseason numbers, it’s hard to imagine any team wouldn’t be eager to give Darvish the ball this October.

Personal

Darvish has been dealing with the media spotlight since he was a teenager, rising from a highly-touted high school prospect into instant stardom with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. His move to Major League Baseball drew intense interest from several teams, with the Rangers making the high bid (under the old posting system) of $51.7MM just for the rights to talk terms with Darvish, eventually signing him to a six-year, $56MM deal.

Market

While Darvish has drawn significant interest from at least six teams, there haven’t been too many rumblings about Darvish or other top free agent hurlers given that the Shohei Ohtani chase has so dominated the offseason pitching market. Now that Ohtani has agreed to join the Angels, you can expect a least a few of the finalists in the Ohtani sweepstakes to turn their attention to Darvish, even though the veteran pitcher comes at a vastly higher price. Interest should be robust.

The Cubs have already made one notable rotation signing in Tyler Chatwood, though adding Darvish would further bolster an already-strong rotation. The Dodgers are also deep in pitching options, though they could explore a reunion with Darvish to guard against further rotation injuries. A return to the Rangers doesn’t seem very likely, while San Diego, San Francisco or Seattle are also longer shots based on costs, though the Mariners seem to be taking such an aggressive approach to this offseason that they can’t be totally ruled out.

Let’s not overlook the Angels themselves as possible candidates, as there has been some light speculation that Darvish and Ohtani could aim to be on the same team; the two are friends and Darvish is one of Ohtani’s idols. Anaheim has some payroll room even after extending Justin Upton, and with Darvish added to the promising but injury-riddled rotation, the Halos could even look to trade one of their excess starters in their attempts to add second base help.

The Twins and Cardinals have been linked to Darvish this winter, though St. Louis has already made one notable rotation addition and could be more focused on adding a big bat. Minnesota is something of a surprise suitor for Darvish on paper, though the club has enough open payroll space in future seasons that signing Darvish is actually feasible. (The Brewers are also a possible fit for the same reason.) The Orioles and Phillies badly need arms but the former won’t meet Darvish’s price and the Phillies may be a year away from augmenting their rebuild with big-ticket free agents. The Astros may prefer to earmark future money on extending their core players, though they make some sense for Darvish if they wanted to safeguard their rotation against Dallas Keuchel possibly leaving for free agency after 2018.

Expected Contract

MLBTR projected Darvish to land a six-year, $160MM contract this winter, which would work out to the fifth-highest average annual value given to any pitcher in baseball history. It’s a big investment given Darvish’s age and the miles already on his arm, though it also looks to be market value for such an ace-level hurler that reaches free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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