Yu Darvish

Free Agent Profile: Yu Darvish

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2017 at 11:11pm CDT

Yu Darvish hits the open market as both the top free agent pitcher available and, in MLBTR’s view, the top free agent of the entire 2017-18 class.

Strengths/Pros

After seven years of stardom in Japan, Darvish came to North American baseball with great fanfare in the 2011-12 offseason, and he has since lived up to the hype. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has a 3.42 ERA, 11.04 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate, and 19 fWAR, firmly establishing himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Tommy John surgery sidelined Darvish for all of 2015 and limited him to 100 1/3 innings in 2016, though he looked healthy in a full season of work last year plus an extended postseason run with the Dodgers. Darvish tossed a combined 201 1/3 innings between the regular season and playoffs, the second-highest total of his MLB career. Beyond just the workload, Darvish also set a new career best by averaging 94.2 mph on his fastball.

It’s worth noting that Darvish’s numbers with the Rangers prior to his deadline trade to L.A. were somewhat below his usual standard, thanks in part to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. While those home run issues continued after Darvish went from Texas to Los Angeles, he took quite well to pitching in the NL, posting better strikeout and walk rates as a Dodger than he did in 137 IP with the Rangers before the deal. His cumulative 10.08 K/9 for the season was the lowest of his career, though Darvish balanced that minor dip in punchouts with a 2.8 BB/9, continuing his trend of exhibiting better control throughout his big league career.

Since Darvish was dealt during the season, he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, and thus a team doesn’t have to give up any draft picks or international bonus money in order to sign him. This gives Darvish a slight edge over his top competition in free agency, as Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb all have QO compensation attached to their services.

Weaknesses/Cons

Beyond the obvious red flag of the Tommy John surgery, Darvish has made five other trips to the disabled list during his MLB career, ranging from minor neck and back stiffness to rather lengthier DL stints for elbow and shoulder issues. Though Darvish just turned 31 last August, he has 2127 2/3 regular-season innings on his arm between both Japan and North America, not to mention extensive postseason work. While he hasn’t really exhibited any signs of slowing down, it’s easy to see how a team could be worried about committing nine figures to Darvish into his mid-30’s.

The spike in home runs allowed isn’t completely out of the blue (Darvish had a 14.4% homer rate in 2013), and clearly he was far from the only pitcher who ran into trouble with the long ball during a record-setting season for homers. Darvish’s 33.1% hard-hit ball rate was also a career-high, however, and his curveball was a below-average pitch in 2017 after previously being one of the most devastating weapons in his seven-pitch arsenal.

No discussion of Darvish is complete with mentioning his awful World Series performance, though that could just be chalked up to the Astros having his number. Darvish was very effective in his two starts earlier in the playoffs, and given the small-sample size factor of all postseason numbers, it’s hard to imagine any team wouldn’t be eager to give Darvish the ball this October.

Personal

Darvish has been dealing with the media spotlight since he was a teenager, rising from a highly-touted high school prospect into instant stardom with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. His move to Major League Baseball drew intense interest from several teams, with the Rangers making the high bid (under the old posting system) of $51.7MM just for the rights to talk terms with Darvish, eventually signing him to a six-year, $56MM deal.

Market

While Darvish has drawn significant interest from at least six teams, there haven’t been too many rumblings about Darvish or other top free agent hurlers given that the Shohei Ohtani chase has so dominated the offseason pitching market. Now that Ohtani has agreed to join the Angels, you can expect a least a few of the finalists in the Ohtani sweepstakes to turn their attention to Darvish, even though the veteran pitcher comes at a vastly higher price. Interest should be robust.

The Cubs have already made one notable rotation signing in Tyler Chatwood, though adding Darvish would further bolster an already-strong rotation. The Dodgers are also deep in pitching options, though they could explore a reunion with Darvish to guard against further rotation injuries. A return to the Rangers doesn’t seem very likely, while San Diego, San Francisco or Seattle are also longer shots based on costs, though the Mariners seem to be taking such an aggressive approach to this offseason that they can’t be totally ruled out.

Let’s not overlook the Angels themselves as possible candidates, as there has been some light speculation that Darvish and Ohtani could aim to be on the same team; the two are friends and Darvish is one of Ohtani’s idols. Anaheim has some payroll room even after extending Justin Upton, and with Darvish added to the promising but injury-riddled rotation, the Halos could even look to trade one of their excess starters in their attempts to add second base help.

The Twins and Cardinals have been linked to Darvish this winter, though St. Louis has already made one notable rotation addition and could be more focused on adding a big bat. Minnesota is something of a surprise suitor for Darvish on paper, though the club has enough open payroll space in future seasons that signing Darvish is actually feasible. (The Brewers are also a possible fit for the same reason.) The Orioles and Phillies badly need arms but the former won’t meet Darvish’s price and the Phillies may be a year away from augmenting their rebuild with big-ticket free agents. The Astros may prefer to earmark future money on extending their core players, though they make some sense for Darvish if they wanted to safeguard their rotation against Dallas Keuchel possibly leaving for free agency after 2018.

Expected Contract

MLBTR projected Darvish to land a six-year, $160MM contract this winter, which would work out to the fifth-highest average annual value given to any pitcher in baseball history. It’s a big investment given Darvish’s age and the miles already on his arm, though it also looks to be market value for such an ace-level hurler that reaches free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Market Notes: Darvish, Donaldson, Frazier

By Jeff Todd | November 29, 2017 at 8:39am CDT

There has been no shortage of chatter on Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani over the past few weeks. We gathered up more news and rumors on each of these significant players yesterday — here and here, respectively. It’s fair to wonder whether their still-unsettled situations could be to blame for a notably sluggish start to the free agent market. The former, in particular, is a potential cause given that his massive contract and complicated trade situation might be hindering the development of the markets of premium free agents — though certainly other structural factors may be playing a far greater role, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues in a must-read piece.

Free agent righty Yu Darvish evidently still has a broad class of suitors, according to a report from Jim Bowden of Sirius XM (via Twitter). Six (unidentified) clubs have engaged on the veteran hurler, with about as many others seemingly having shown some degree of interest. That’s not surprising for a pitcher of Darvish’s stature — he entered the offseason atop MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents — but it does suggest that the back-and-forth is only just getting underway.
Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has explored the hypothetical possibility of the Blue Jays dangling star third baseman Josh Donaldson in trade. He first posited that Toronto could match up with the Cardinals in a swap that might allow both teams to maximize their resources and stay in contention. (Of course, this is presented as analysis, not a report of actual discussions.) And yesterday, Cameron argued that Donaldson might not bring maximum value if he’s ultimately shopped at the deadline (supposing, of course, that the Jays end up in a selling posture). Other premium hot corner rentals could also be available this summer, Cameron notes, and it seems unlikely that there’ll be a whole lot of demand.
Third baseman Todd Frazier is likely to plug a gap for one of the few contenders that does need a new option there. But he’s also still interested in returning to the Yankees, he tells MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Of course, that’s an organization that may well decide not to add at that position; we covered just that subject in some detail about a month back. Frazier says it’d be “great” to remain in the Bronx, but also suggests he may be resigned to finding a new home, noting that he “understand[s] the business” side of things.

Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani Among Priorities For Twins

By Connor Byrne | November 26, 2017 at 11:05am CDT

Speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio on Sunday, Twins general manager Thad Levine confirmed that the team is in the market for major pitching upgrades. Levine revealed that the Twins are actively talking with the agents for available starters Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, among others, as well as representatives for various relievers (all Twitter links). The executive specifically pointed to Darvish as “a priority,” and he used the same word to describe soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani.

“He’s a unique free agent, but we don’t know a lot about him personally yet,” Levine said of Ohtani. “It’s exciting for us because we have a chance to sign a player like him. He’s a top priority for us.”

The three-week sweepstakes to sign Ohtani, a Japanese pitching and hitting superstar, appears likely to commence at the start of December. Had the 23-year-old Ohtani waited until the age of 25 to come to the majors, he would have been in line to sign a mega-deal, which may have ruled out a serious Twins pursuit. But the collective bargaining agreement will limit Ohtani to a low-cost minor league contract this offseason, thereby giving all teams some chance to sign him if they’re willing to pay a $20MM posting fee to his Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, for his services. While money isn’t going to guide Ohtani’s decision this offseason, it’s notable anyway that the Twins have the third-most bonus pool space available ($3.245MM). That won’t hurt them in their chase, of course, but they’ll have to sell Ohtani on how he’d fit into their organization and city.

Interestingly, there has been speculation that, because of the good relationship they forged in their homeland, Ohtani and Darvish, 31, could end up with the same team this winter as a sort of package deal. Landing the pair would be an enormous boon for anyone, including Minnesota, which snapped a six-year playoff drought in 2017 despite an underwhelming showing from its rotation. Twins starters ranked 19th in the majors in ERA (4.73) and 22nd in fWAR (7.7) last season, so the need for quality hurlers to complement Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios is obvious.

Considering Darvish could pull in the richest contract of the offseason, many would expect him to land outside of small-market Minnesota’s price range. However, the club is well positioned to make a bold strike in free agency this winter, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this month. The team itself seems to agree, judging by the established free agents it’s currently pursuing, and it’s worth noting that Levine is already familiar with Darvish from their time together in Texas.

When the Rangers landed Darvish out of Japan in 2012, Levine was their assistant GM. That experience might help during Ohtani’s recruitment, as could the fact that the Twins aren’t exactly set at designated hitter. By most accounts, Ohtani has enough offensive talent to collect regular at-bats in the majors, so he could emerge as the DH for a Minnesota team that only received average production there from Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas last season.

Poll: Which Free Agent Will Sign The Largest Contract?

By Kyle Downing | November 24, 2017 at 10:56pm CDT

The hot stove season has started off lukewarm, and we might not see a true rush of activity until the rumors surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani finally lead to resolutions of some kind. But when the dominoes start falling, we’re highly likely to see a few free agents sign nine-figure deals.

MLBTR released our annual Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article early this month, and right-hander Yu Darvish sits atop the list with a predicted $160MM guarantee. Despite a career-low strikeout rate (and a well-documented implosion in the playoffs), Darvish remains an elite arm with a great track record of success, including an average of 3.80 fWAR across his five full MLB seasons. Though he hasn’t been quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, the Dodgers free agent starter still managed double-digit strikeouts per nine innings this past season while allowing only 2.80 walks per nine. In case there was any doubt about his durability following a major surgery, Darvish threw 186 2/3 innings in 2017, and added several more during L.A.’s playoff run. Of course, his famously horrific World Series performance leaves a stain on an otherwise solid campaign. That, along with a steady decline in his full-season ERA and xFIP across the past four campaigns, could potentially leave some of his suitors uneasy about signing him to a lengthy contract.

Even though J.D. Martinez didn’t qualify for the batting title in 2017, he still finished 44th in MLB with 3.8 fWAR. His .690 slugging percentage was the highest in baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and a full 59 points higher than second-place Stanton. Since joining the Tigers in 2014, Martinez has mashed 128 homers, good for 10th in all of baseball across the past four years. He also ranks in the top ten in slugging percentage (2) and wRC+ (5) during that span. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly seeking a $210MM guarantee for Martinez, dubbing him “King Kong” and referencing his power and batting average numbers. Of course, Martinez comes with plenty of negatives as well. He’s only topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career. He’s also a defensive liability; Martinez has posted absolutely deplorable UZR, DRS and Inside Edge Fielding numbers over the past two years.

Eric Hosmer is the youngest of this group, having just turned 28 in October. He’s never logged fewer than 547 plate appearances in a full season, either. His relative youth and durability means he’s almost certain to get the longest contract, though that doesn’t mean the largest total guarantee. Interestingly, agent Scott Boras is trying to work his intangibles, such as clubhouse presence and media skills, into teams’ valuations of Hosmer. In 2017, Hosmer posted a career-high 4.1 fWAR and tied last year’s personal best with 25 homers. That he’s entering the free agent market following the best season of his career bodes well for him. However, his value could get dragged down by the fact that the free agent first base crop is particularly deep this year. If other first basemen sign quickly, Hosmer could lose suitors (and leverage) in a hurry, which could drive down his price.

What do you think? (Poll link for app users)

Twins Looking At Top-Tier Free Agent Pitchers

By Jeff Todd | November 14, 2017 at 10:19am CDT

The Twins are taking an aggressive stance to open free agency, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. It seems the Minnesota organization is slated to engage at the top echelon of the pitching market.

We’ve heard chatter previously about the Twins investing in an arm, but this news seemingly takes the interest to another level. Per Heyman, the front office is at least “looking at” top free-agent hurlers Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, with a “slightly higher evaluation” of the former. Not only that, but the club is said to be “investigating” the best relievers available, including Wade Davis and Greg Holland.

Just how much cash the Twins will pour into the open market remains an open question. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, though, the organization not only seems ready to contend in a vulnerable AL Central, but has plenty of open future payroll space. That makes it plausible, albeit hardly certain, to imagine the Twins playing in a segment of free agency that is normally off limits.

It’s not difficult to see why these particular pitchers would be of interest. Minnesota is clearly in need of at least one more quality starter and has an obvious opening at the back of the bullpen. As ever, though, getting the players with the greatest pedigree could mean taking uncomfortable amounts of financial risk.

In this case, the expectation remains that Darvish and Arrieta will receive robust interest. MLBTR’s top 50 list features both among the top four players available, with $100MM or more in likely earnings. Meanwhile, Davis and Holland both warranted inclusion at the back of the top ten, with MLBTR predicting four-year deals for each (at $60MM and $50MM, respectively).

There’s always some possibility that markets won’t develop as anticipated, of course. And patience can pay off in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see, then, whether the Twins go chasing these top hurlers out of the gates or instead take a somewhat more opportunistic approach. The club does have interest in second-tier starters and relievers, Heyman notes. It seems possible that such hurlers could be targeted for value early or that the Twins could hold back and see if a particularly enticing opportunity arises over the course of the winter.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2017 at 12:35pm CDT

The Cardinals are known to be looking for a significant bat to insert into the middle of their lineup this offseason, but FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that they’re also exploring various means of landing a top-notch starter as well. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with agents Joel Wolfe and Adam Katz of the Wasserman agency last night, per Heyman. Wasserman represents slugger Giancarlo Stanton (another reported Cardinals target), but Yu Darvish is the agency’s top free agent this winter, and Heyman reports that the meeting between the two sides was about pitching.

It’s not clear how much of a focus Darvish was in their meeting, of course. Wasserman has a large portfolio of clients, and the Cardinals also plan to use the GM Meetings to discuss bullpen upgrades, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Wasserman represents both Brandon Morrow and Addison Reed, for instance (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database), both of whom stand out as on-paper targets for the Cardinals.

Heyman writes that St. Louis could well emerge as a serious player for either Darvish or fellow righty Jake Arrieta, but the team’s front office prefers to explore the trade market before aggressively diving into the free-agent waters. Of course, there won’t exactly be an abundance of top-level arms available on the market. There aren’t many (if any) available trade candidates that could pitch at the front of a contender’s rotation. Chris Archer is an oft-speculated candidate, but there’s never been any real indication that the Rays are open to moving him and Heyman suggests Tampa Bay has no interest in doing so at this time. (With four years at a total of $33.75MM remaining on his deal, that’s hardly a surprise.)

With the Cardinals looking to make a splash both on the offensive side of the spectrum and potentially in the rotation, there are any number of routes the team can pursue. If the lack of available arms causes the club to circle back to free-agent rotation options, Mozeliak and his staff could look to use a sizable crop of young outfielders and young-but-inexperienced starters to then acquire a bat (e.g. Stanton, Jose Abreu) on the trade market. Magneuris Sierra, Harrison Bader, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty all figure to have varying levels of appeal to other teams, as would young righties Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty and Luke Weaver (though Weaver’s strong 2017 performance may take him off the table).

Alternatively, St. Louis could utilize that stockpile of young talent to pry a less obvious rotation piece away from another club and devote some of its available resources to a free agent such as J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer.

The Cardinals, it seems, are largely focused on making a significant addition or two, but it’s common for clubs to use this time of year to explore many different paths as they look to construct a contending roster. The Cardinals’ $1 billion television contract is about to start, which could make it easier for the team to stomach the addition of a large contract (via free agency or trade), and the aforementioned group of young talents only represents a portion of the names they could utilize to pique the interest of other clubs. Given the myriad decisions with which they’re faced, the Cards figure to be one of the most influential teams in determining the overall landscape of the 2017-18 offseason for all 30 MLB clubs.

Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2017 at 9:20am CDT

In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish’s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.

If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…

Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals’ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.

Twins, Brewers Enter Offseason In Position To Spend

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2017 at 9:06am CDT

Each year, our top ranking of the top 50 free agents and their projected contracts/destinations prompts many to raise an eyebrow. In the now five years that I’ve spent contributing to that behemoth of a post, though, I’m not sure I can recall a more unpopular pick with readers than the notion that Jake Arrieta could sign with the Brewers for what would be the largest free-agent signing in Milwaukee’s franchise history. The notion that the Brewers would win a bidding war isn’t one to which most are accustomed. Milwaukee signed Matt Garza to a four-year, $50MM contract prior to the 2014 season and has, at times, played in the second tier of free agency. But the Brewers are among baseball’s smallest markets, and placing Arrieta there admittedly felt odd even for us.

The question we kept asking, however, is: Why should it? The Brewers are one of two teams we kept coming back to that are in a position to act in a manner in which we’ve never really seen them act before. The other is just a five-hour drive to the west, in Minneapolis. I’m not suggesting that it’s a slam dunk that we’ll see the Brewers and Twins shatter their longstanding small-market perception; however, there’s an argument to be made for both teams to give serious consideration to spending far more aggressively this winter than they have in years past.

The 2017 season was a similar tale for both the Brewers and the Twins. Each club was largely written off heading into the 2017 season as they sought to continue rebuilding with an eye more toward 2018 and beyond than toward 2017. Last winter, the Twins’ biggest expenditure was a $24.5MM contract for veteran catcher Jason Castro. The Brewers spent $16MM on KBO reclamation project Eric Thames. The moves were not met with excessive fanfare.

But both the Brewers and Twins saw the majority of their young, potential core pieces take a step forward. Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana broke out with three-win seasons in Milwaukee, while Thames made good on his investment. Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies led a surprisingly strong rotation, and Corey Knebel announced his presence as one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over in Minnesota, Byron Buxton rebounded from a terrible start and batted .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 PAs with elite defense. Miguel Sano hit 28 homers in 114 games before a stress reaction from a foul ball to the shin cut his season short. Eddie Rosario belted 26 homers, Jorge Polanco posted a 128 wRC+ in the second half, and Jose Berrios established himself as a useful big league starter. Joe Mauer even quietly rebounding to hit .305/.384/.417 (116 wRC+).

Suddenly, both teams look like potential contenders not just in 2018 but for the foreseeable future. The Twins share a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Tigers. The Royals are set to lose Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas to free agency after already having bid adieu to Wade Davis and Greg Holland in recent years. In 2018, at least, the AL Central outlook is promising for the Twins and the Indians.

Milwaukee will have to deal with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates in 2018, but the Bucs had a tough season and will soon have to seriously entertain trade offers for both Andrew McCutchen (a free agent next winter) and Gerrit Cole (a free agent the following offseason). The Cardinals are expected to radically alter their roster after a pair of disappointing seasons. The Cubs have work to do on the pitching front. Any of those teams could contend next year.

One advantage that both the Brewers and Twins have over their division rivals, though, is a largely blank payroll slate moving forward. Even after arbitration projections, the Twins have just $85.5MM on the books for the 2018 season. After the coming year, that commitment drops to $24MM. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar committed to the books in 2020.

It’s an even more favorable situation in Milwaukee (at least as far as 2018 is concerned). The Brewers have just $55MM committed payroll (including arbitration projections) and $31.5MM of guaranteed cash on the 2019 books. The recent extension of Chase Anderson gives them club options over the right-hander for the 2019-20 seasons, and Milwaukee also holds a 2020 option on Thames. Ryan Braun is the only guaranteed contract on the 2020 ledger, and his front-loaded deal will call for just a $16MM salary that season. That wide-open payroll was a large reason that the Brewers were connected to Justin Verlander on the summer trade market; the injury to Jimmy Nelson perhaps only adds impetus to the pursuit of a significant hurler.

Further working in the favor of both traditionally low-payroll clubs is the fact that many of the big-market teams that typically dominate free agency are either taking a step back on spending in 2017-18 or figure to focus their spending on areas other than the Twins and Brewers, who both need pitching help. It’s possible to imagine scenarios where the best pitchers don’t generate feverish bidding frenzies — perhaps allowing surprise suitors to participate in the market in a more measured way than the Diamondbacks did with their sudden and massive outlay for Zack Greinke.

The Yankees, for instance, have bluntly stated that they plan to get under the luxury tax barrier in advance of the 2018-19 mega crop of free agents (featuring Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel and many others). The Red Sox’ primary focus seems like it’ll be on adding a significant bat to the lineup rather than adding arms. The Giants have often played at the top of the free-agent market, but they’re already on the cusp of the luxury tax threshold before making a single move. The Angels have money to spend but have already committed to Justin Upton and still need to add a pair of infielders. The Tigers won’t spend much this winter as they kick off an aggressive rebuild. The Rangers are attempting to scale back their payroll by $10MM or so. The Nationals surpassed the luxury tax line in 2017 and already have a pair of $25MM+ annual salaries in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

There will still be large-market teams looking to spend, of course. The Cubs need to add at least two arms in the rotation and could conceivably target as many as three bullpen additions. The Dodgers have reportedly been aiming to gradually pare back the payroll but of course still figure to spend some money this offseason, even if this current front-office regime hasn’t made a habit of top-level free-agent expenditures. Even the Phillies, once one of the team’s highest-payroll clubs prior to this rebuild, could begin throwing some dollars around this winter now that several of their own young players (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola, Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams) are showing promise at the big league level with others on the cusp.

That said, the Twins and Brewers nonetheless find themselves in the unique position of having pristine long-term payroll outlooks with a burgeoning young core carving out its foothold in the Majors. With several big-market teams likely to eschew massive contracts, they’ll have the opportunity to perhaps be unusually competitive when it comes to names for whom they’d traditionally be outbid. None of this is to say that Minnesota or Milwaukee should be considered the odds-on favorites to sign a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, but it stands to reason that both could consider those types of moves far more closely than we’re traditionally accustomed to seeing. In fact, as I was finishing writing this piece, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported that the Twins are indeed expected to consider a run at top-tier names like Darvish, Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. And Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in late September that the team’s financial flexibility may allow it to “punch a little bit above [its] weight.”

Trades will, as ever, factor into the decision-making process for both clubs this winter. Each still has a number of intriguing prospects despite the significant amount of graduations in recent years, and there’s something to be said for pursuing a controllable arm from the Rays, Pirates or Cardinals — organizations that possess multiple intriguing young pitchers that could conceivably be dangled on the trade market this offseason. However, those markets figure to be ultra-competitive, and part of the way in which the Twins and Brewers got to their current standpoint was by stockpiling young prospects and filling out their roster with that talent. Maintaining a quality pipeline of high-upside talent will remain a priority in both markets.

All of which leads back to the idea that the Twins, who haven’t topped $110MM in payroll since 2011, and Brewers, who have never opened the season with even a $105MM payroll, could be more aggressive than any would expect based on history. Some will roll their eyes at the notion, and it may prove in the end that neither lands a top-ranked free agent, but both Milwaukee and Minnesota are in excellent position to alter their image this offseason if they find an opportunity to their liking.

Rumors: Cards, Stanton, Yelich, Rangers, Yu, Cobb, Tribe

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2017 at 10:30am CDT

The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.

Meanwhile, a much-needed addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen could come soon. The Cards have reached out to representatives for certain impending free agent relievers this weekend, relays Goold, who expects them to pursue a closer and possibly a setup man. Trading for bullpen help also seems possible, as the Cardinals are facing a 40-man roster logjam in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft. With the need to finalize his 40-man by the Nov. 20 deadline, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that the team may “consider moving two roster players for one. That kind of thing. We have to be open to try.”

Former Rangers ace and soon-to-be free agent Yu Darvish is not atop their offseason wish list, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. The Rangers will contact Darvish’s agent during free agency, but the likelihood is that he’ll be too pricey to return to the team, per Wilson. With a Darvish reunion looking like a long shot, the Rangers might turn to another established free agent right-hander in Alex Cobb, whom they covet, according to Wilson. The longtime Ray, 30, returned from a 2015 Tommy John procedure in earnest this year, tossing 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP ball.
The Indians aren’t optimistic that they’ll be able to re-sign impending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports. Shaw has been an effective workhorse out of the Indians’ bullpen since 2013, having pitched to a 3.11 ERA across 358 2/3 innings during that five-year span, and appears poised to parlay his success in Cleveland into a contract out of the club’s price range. MLBTR projects a three-year, $21MM deal for Shaw, which the Indians believe will prove close to accurate, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com writes. With the soon-to-be 30-year-old Shaw apparently on his way out, the Tribe could feel more urgency to re-sign fellow impending free agent reliever Joe Smith, Hoynes notes. Smith, who will play his age-34 season in 2018, is fresh off a terrific campaign divided between Toronto and Cleveland.

Quick Hits: Yu, Rangers, Mariners, Brantley, D-backs, Nats

By Connor Byrne | November 4, 2017 at 10:41pm CDT

Reflecting on his six-year tenure with the Rangers, impending free agent right-hander Yu Darvish told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News via text (through an interpreter) that he “listened and paid too much attention to any criticism I heard inside and outside the clubhouse” when he was a member of the team. Darvish also revealed that his relationship with his Rangers teammates “wasn’t great” at times. Those issues sapped Darvish of some of his joy for baseball, though he noted that he began regaining it after the Rangers traded him to the Dodgers on July 31. Darvish explained that his loss of enthusiasm wasn’t the fault of his previous club, however, as he came to realize “how much the Rangers and the fans cared about me” while in LA over the final three months of the season.

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