Zack Cozart

Trade Chatter: Iglesias, Reds, Royals, Asdrubal, Mariners, Dodgers, Astros

By Steve Adams | July 20, 2017 at 9:34am CDT

Though Raisel Iglesias’ name has somewhat frequently been mentioned on the rumor circuit, Reds general manager Dick Williams tells Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s not marketing his closer to other teams. That doesn’t mean that Williams won’t listen to offers on the 27-year-old, but the GM’s comments suggest that a trade isn’t especially likely “[I]f somebody really gave you an opportunity to improve your franchise, you’d have to consider it,” said Williams of listening to offers on Iglesias. “But I really like a lot of the pieces we have, and I see us not that far from being competitive if we can get some of these young pitchers to turn the corner. If I were to trade him, you’d want something back that could help us real soon.”

Some more trade chatter to kick off Thursday morning…

From that same piece, Williams tells Buchanan that he’s more open-minded when it comes to dealing impending free agents such as Zack Cozart, Drew Storen and recently injured Scott Feldman. The knee injury that landed Feldman on the disabled list seems particularly unfortunate, as Buchanan reports that the Reds had received trade interest in Feldman prior to that issue. His timetable for a return isn’t yet known. There’s technically time for him to be activated before the deadline if it proves to be short-term in nature, though one can imagine that most interested parties would prefer to see him make a start before moving forward with a trade. Buchanan also speculates on the possibility of a Tony Cingrani trade, noting that he’s pitching well and controlled for two more seasons, while Cincinnati has quite a few younger arms it’d like to take a look at in the ’pen.
The Royals are once again struggling, having dropped seven of their past 10 games, but ESPN’s Buster Olney hears that they’re not deviating from their course as deadline buyers. Kansas City has been hopeful of adding two “cost-efficient” starting pitchers and are also looking into adding a reliever. It’d take a total collapse between now and the deadline for the Royals to change course and sell off their impending free agents, Olney adds.
Olney also tweets that the Mets would improve their chances of finding a trade partner for Asdrubal Cabrera by playing him at third base. Rival evaluators are hopeful of seeing him at that position before making a determination, per Olney, and it now appears likely that the Mets will accommodate them. Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that Cabrera is set to begin taking grounders at the hot corner, and manager Terry Collins confirmed as much to Carig’s colleague, David Lennon (Twitter link).
The Mariners “appear willing” to trade outfield prospect Tyler O’Neill this summer, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. The 22-year-old O’Neill entered the season ranked among the game’s 50 or so best prospects on several notable lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus) but got off to a poor start to the season in Triple-A. He’s recovered with a 1.127 OPS over his past 26 games to bring his batting line back up to a respectable .241/.326/.462, but Dutton notes that the emergence of Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel has the M’s more open to a deal. Despite the presence of that duo, however, Seattle hasn’t shown an inclination to deal top organizational prospect Kyle Lewis.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes that the Dodgers and Astros have put themselves in such strong position that neither strongly needs to make a move prior to the trade deadline. However, both Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and Astros GM Jeff Luhnow are viewed as extremely opportunistic types and figure to look at ways to upgrade their roster anyhow. Crasnick classifies the Dodgers’ interest in Orioles closer Zach Britton as “legitimate” but notes that they’re a bit cautious due to his 2017 forearm issues. Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that L.A. is reluctant to part with prospects Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler in trades, and Crasnick echoes that statement while also adding righty Yadier Alvarez to the list. While the three aren’t quite “untouchable,” none of the three seems especially likely to go. As for the Astros, they’ll continue looking for a starter that could join the playoff rotation behind Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, though they, too, could look instead to a late-inning lefty like Britton or Detroit’s Justin Wilson.

Trade Rumblings: Darvish, Marlins, Starters, Tigers, Astros, Iglesias, Hand

By Steve Adams | July 13, 2017 at 6:27pm CDT

There’s “increasing buzz” that the Rangers will listen to offers on top starters Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels if they don’t open the second half of the season with strong play, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. It’s been previously reported that the Rangers will hold onto Darvish even if they fall out of the race, so that’d represent something of a change of mindset for GM Jon Daniels & Co. Darvish is set to hit the open market at season’s end, so if the Rangers are out of the race and don’t trade him, they run the risk of losing him to free agency (though he’d obviously receive and reject a qualifying offer, affording Texas some draft compensation). Hamels, meanwhile, hasn’t been listed as a potential trade target to date. He’s earning $23.5MM this year and next, and he’s owed at least $6MM as the buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2019 campaign. That contract and a bizarrely low strikeout rate (4.9 K/9) could complicate Hamels’ market, though he’s shown recent improvement with 12 strikeouts in his past 14 1/3 innings of work.

More trade chatter from around the league…

The Marlins have told other clubs that they’re ready to sell off assets, a rival executive tells Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller. According to Miller, the Marlins have spoken to more than 10 teams about right-hander David Phelps, and there are two or three clubs that are showing “serious” interest in closer AJ Ramos. “They’re working on it and talking to clubs,” the exec tells Miller. “But the conversations always end with one caveat, that they don’t know that the owner won’t bail at the last minute.” Miller adds that Giancarlo Stanton isn’t likely to move until the Marlins accept that they won’t get someone to take his salary and give prospects back. The industry feeling is that it’d have to be almost a straight salary dump. (Stanton can also veto any deal via his no-trade clause.) Miller’s column features a look at all 30 teams and their possible deadline course as well.
Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are available in trades, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com, but the Athletics, Tigers and Pirates have each set a lofty asking price. Perhaps more interestingly, Morosi adds that the Braves have said right-hander Julio Teheran isn’t available, though he’s reportedly been drawing interest and others (including David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports) have said that Atlanta would at least consider offers. In addition to that overview of the market for pitchers, Morosi runs down a position-by-position preview of the market for bats.
Heyman reports that there’s little to no genuine interest in Justin Verlander at this time due to his huge contract and underwhelming numbers. Furthermore, he notes that due to Verlander’s status as a legend in Detroit, they can’t accept an underwhelming return and effectively signal to Tigers fans that his trade was a salary dump. There’s also very little interest in Ian Kinsler, according to Heyman, as the he’s struggled in 2017 and few teams are on the hunt for second base help. He adds that Alex Avila, J.D. Martinez and Justin Wilson are all drawing strong interest, however, so GM Al Avila should make some deals in the next 18 days.
In his weekly AL Notes column, Heyman reports that with few top starters left on the market, the Astros may instead pursue high-end bullpen help in an effort to shorten the game and load up the relief corps for the postseason. Unsurprisingly, their list of targets would include Zach Britton, if he’s available. (Most clubs in the league would perk up at the notion of acquiring a healthy Britton.)
Heyman also notes that Braves left-hander Jaime Garcia is one rental pitcher that interests the Royals. On the subject of Kansas City, he also notes that while the team does have interest in Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, K.C. would want Miami to pay down some of the roughly $41MM remaining on Gordon’s contract, which the Fish aren’t willing to do. The same is true of the Angels and Blue Jays, he adds, both of whom like the player but not his current salary.
Meanwhile, in his NL Notes column, Heyman writes that the Reds are believed to be willing to listen to offers on closer Raisel Iglesias but would only move him for a package that would “blow them away.” The 27-year-old Iglesias has emerged as one of baseball’s best relievers and is controllable through the 2020 season. He’s affordable at the moment ($3.5MM in 2017), but his contract allows him to opt into arbitration once eligible, so his salary is going to balloon quite a bit between now and 2020. Heyman also notes that the Reds would be interested in a two- or possibly three-year deal with Zack Cozart but recognize that he can earn more than they’re willing to pay when he gets to free agency.
The Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Royals, Angels and Mariners could all be in the mix for lefty Brad Hand, Heyman reports. Regarding the Dodgers, Heyman and Robert Murray report that San Diego asked Los Angeles for top prospect Alex Verdugo in return, though there’s “no likelihood” of L.A. meeting that price. The Padres are also getting calls on cheap starters Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin, each of whom inked a one-year deal worth $1.75MM this past offseason.

Reds Notes: Iglesias, DeSclafani, Cingrani

By Mark Polishuk and Connor Byrne | July 9, 2017 at 8:42pm CDT

Here’s the latest out of Cincinnati…

Closer Raisel Iglesias has drawn trade interest with the deadline approaching, though the Reds would unsurprisingly seek an “astronomical” return for the 27-year-old, a source tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). With that in mind, Crasnick suggests that Cincy’s deadline talks are more likely to revolve around veteran rentals like shortstop Zack Cozart, starter Scott Feldman and reliever Drew Storen than Iglesias. The flamethrowing right-hander could be a core piece for the Reds, as he’s on a reasonable contract through 2020 and has dominated over 41 2/3 innings this year (1.73 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.46 BB/9 and a 46.2% ground-ball rate).
Anthony DeSclafani is reporting good progress in rehab process, the right-hander tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. After spraining his right UCL during the spring, DeSclafani has slowly begun ramping up a throwing process that didn’t begin until midway through May. “I’ve made every scheduled throwing session, bullpen, flat-ground. It’s been going well so far, so hopefully it stays the course,” said DeSclafani, who is three bullpen sessions into a schedule of one bullpen every three days. He remains on track for a return in August, matching the tentative timeline set in June by Reds manager Bryan Price.
Left-hander Tony Cingrani has moved from Dishman Sports Group to the Bledsoe Agency, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). Cingrani, who’s controllable via arbitration through 2019, has combined for a 4.38 ERA, 8.28 K/9 against 5.26 BB/9, and a 44.3% grounder mark across 113 innings since he became a full-time reliever in 2015. MLBTR will make note of Cingrani’s representation change in our Agency Database, which keeps track of agent information on more than 2,500 major league and minor league players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Reds Activate Zack Cozart; “Mutual Interest” In Exploring Extension

By Jeff Todd | June 30, 2017 at 6:17pm CDT

The Reds activated shortstop Zack Cozart from the 10-day DL today, as had been expected. While that seemingly removes any remaining obstacles to a trade involving the pending free agent, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that it’s also possible the club could first pursue long-term contract talks.

“I know there’s mutual interest in the future with Zack,” president of baseball operations Dick Williams said. “Maybe we can figure out a way to make that happen.” While that comment perhaps left some ambiguity as to whether near-term extension talks were truly being contemplated, Williams went on to say that “we need to at least initiate some discussions now” given that Cozart will be fielding offers in free agency once the season is over.

Cozart, who’ll turn 32 later this season, said recently that he would have interest in remaining with the only MLB organization he has played for beyond the current campaign. Clearly, then, both team and player are amenable to exploring a new contract. But that hasn’t yet occurred, Williams tells Buchanan.

While talks of some kind now seem likely, a new contract still appears to be a bit of a longshot. Cozart has played extremely well this year while earning an affordable $5.325MM salary, enhancing his appeal to the incumbent team but also increasing his future earning power and trade value. For the rebuilding Reds, cashing in Cozart’s next three or four months for prospects — which seems all the more plausible with the Diamondbacks and Nationals losing their regular shortstops to injury — holds obvious appeal.

While Williams says the organization values the presence of the veteran shortstop, he has also overseen a series of deals in recent years that brought in interesting and youthful middle-infield options. Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, and Dilson Herrera are all at or near the MLB level. While Suarez has lined up at third, it’s worth bearing in mind that the organization also has premium hot corner prospect Nick Senzel on the fast track to the majors.

In the aggregate, there’s an argument to be made that the Reds shouldn’t have much real interest in pursuing an extension with Cozart. But the team could see if he’s willing to take something of a hometown discount and hope that the roster is ready to begin contending in the near-term. (Improvements in the pitching staff will likely be required for that to occur.)

Of course, it’s only fair to note that a plausible extension scenario also functions to enhance the Reds’ trade leverage to some extent. Interestingly, Williams also noted that he has yet to field calls from other clubs looking into a possible deal for Cozart, though that’s sure to change over the coming weeks. Even if Cozart is dealt, the good vibes could conceivably lead to a reunion via free agency. The veteran’s ultimate market value will obviously depend upon his performance down the stretch and the level of need around the game come this fall.

Deadline Notes: Red Sox, Giants, Relievers, Torres, Verlander, Cozart, Cabrera

By Jeff Todd | June 29, 2017 at 1:01pm CDT

The Red Sox do not need to stay under the luxury tax line in making their deadline moves, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in an appearance today on WEEI (h/t to Rob Bradford, on Twitter). Recent estimates put Boston about $9MM shy of the threshold, which has added implications under the new CBA since the tax escalates when it is owed in consecutive seasons. While the Sox will no doubt weigh that factor in assessing possible trades, it’s notable that the organization doesn’t feel compelled to stay within those limits. Boston is likely to be involved in the market for third basemen — I looked at possible targets recently — and could also add pitching.

Here’s more …

The Giants are clearly in position to deal a few veterans, but it’s not yet known just how significant the moves will be. Signs are, though, that San Francisco is willing to listen to offers on just about any player, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes. The Giants are not interested in moving Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Crawford, per the report. That could leave some other interesting names available, with Morosi even suggesting that first baseman Brandon Belt could be available. He calls the Angels a potentially “intriguing fit” — though it’s not clear whether there’s any firm interest from Los Angeles — while noting that several other buyers will be looking at a variety of left-handed-hitting first basemen on what seems still to be a wide-open market.
Unsurprisingly, interest in relief pitching will be robust at this year’s deadline, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. Executives suggest that there’ll be a premium on pen arms, as usual, though the expectation remains that none will fetch the kind of immense returns that Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller commanded last year.
The Padres have inquired with the Yankees about elite shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. That said, there’s no indication the Yanks have any interest in parting with the talented youngster — even though he is expected to miss the remainder of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That injury doesn’t really change his long-term value, of course, and it’s not altogether clear what Padres players the Yankees might target that could command that kind of trade value. Lefty Brad Hand and former New York infielder Yangervis Solarte may well be of interest, as Heyman notes, but it’s tough to imagine the Yankees parting with such an elite prospect for either or both of them.
Heyman also weighs in on veteran Tigers hurler Justin Verlander, who has seen his name begin to come up in trade rumors. At this point, a deal seems less than likely, a source tells Heyman, but there is a real possibility that the righty (and his contract — which promises $56MM over 2018 and 2019) could end up on the move. Three or four teams are said to have participated in exploratory talks on Verlander, per the report, though any deal would require Verlander to waive his no-trade protection.
Reds shortstop Zack Cozart, a clear trade candidate with his strong play and expiring contract, tells Heyman that his preference would be to remain in Cincinnati. While he says he understands and accepts that a deal “is more than likely to happen,” Cozart noted that he has informed the front office that he’d be amenable to exploring a long-term contract instead. It’s not terribly surprising, particularly given their internal options, that the Reds haven’t yet made an offer to the 31-year-old.
Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera is walking back his recent call to be traded after being moved from short to second, as Dan Martin of the New York Post writes. Cabrera explains: “In that moment when I said that, I wasn’t saying I want to get traded. I was just saying it didn’t seem like they had a plan for me. … If they’ve got a plan, they should tell me.” He went on to say that he is “fine with playing second base,” saying that his complaint related more to a lack of communication. In any event, it remains unclear just how much demand there’ll be for the veteran, and also how inclined the Mets are to bring him back next year at a $8.5MM price tag (versus a $2MM buyout).

Reds Place Zack Cozart, Bronson Arroyo On Disabled List

By Steve Adams | June 19, 2017 at 1:15pm CDT

The Reds announced today that they’ve placed shortstop Zack Cozart and right-hander Bronson Arroyo on the disabled list. Cozart has been diagnosed with a strained right quadriceps, and his DL stint is retroactive to Sunday. Arroyo has been diagnosed with a strained right shoulder.

In a pair of corresponding moves, the Reds have recalled outfielder Jesse Winker and right-hander Ariel Hernandez from Triple-A Louisville and Double-A Pensacola, respectively.

The news regarding Arroyo comes just one day after the 40-year-old righty made some characteristically candid comments about the strong possibility that his career could be over. Arroyo, whose comeback attempt in 2017 has resulted in a 7.35 ERA through 71 innings, told reporters, “That could have been the last time I was on the field, yeah.” For now, at least, it seems that he’ll take some time to rest his right arm and assess whether he’s able to continue onward.

As for Cozart, the 31-year-old is in the midst of a career-year at the plate — building nicely upon the power increase he showed in 2015-16. Through 255 trips to the plate this season, he’s batting a ridiculous .320/.404/.562 with nine home runs, and while some of that is clearly fueled by an unsustainable .367 BABIP, there are also legitimate indicators of improvement. Cozart’s 12.5 percent walk rate is a career-best, and he’s chasing pitches out of the strike zone less often than he ever has in his Major League career (26.2 percent).

The extent of the injury to Cozart remains to be seen, though certainly it behooves both team and player for the absence to be minimal in nature. Cozart is set to reach free agency for the first time in his career at season’s end, and any prolonged stay on the DL (for a third straight season) would harm his free-agent stock. And, as an impending free agent, he’s also a prime trade piece for the Reds, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne noted last night in the latest installment of our Taking Inventory series.

With Cozart on the disabled list, the Reds could move second baseman Jose Peraza over to shortstop for a brief period, turning to one of the many utility options the club possesses to handle second base for a time. That’d include hot-hitting Scooter Gennett and versatile Arismendy Alcantara, each of whom has plenty of experience there.

Trade Rumblings: Cozart, Alonso, Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers, Cards

By Connor Byrne | June 18, 2017 at 4:13pm CDT

Even though Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has surprisingly been among the majors’ best players this year, there probably won’t be many teams bidding for him at the trade deadline, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required and recommended). Most contenders are in search of pitching, not shortstops, which could hinder the Reds’ efforts to land a quality return for the free agent-to-be. The same lack of demand at shortstop might end up applying to both first base and the outfield, observes Olney, who notes that it may be a problem for Pittsburgh if it tries move Andrew McCutchen or Kansas City in the event it markets Eric Hosmer and/or Lorenzo Cain.

More rumblings as the deadline draws closer:

Breakout first baseman Yonder Alonso would like to sign an extension with the Athletics, but they’re “nearly certain” to put him on the block, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Contrary to Olney’s argument that there might not be much of a market for first basemen, Morosi contends that three AL playoff hopefuls – New York, Seattle and Los Angeles – could each stand to upgrade at the position. The Yankees will prioritize beefing up their rotation and may battle the Red Sox for Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, per Morosi, but Greg Bird’s injury issues might also put Alonso on their radar. The lefty-swinging, fly ball-hitting Alonso, who has slashed .302/.397/.630 with 17 home runs in 219 plate appearances during a contract year, would seemingly be a perfect fit for the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Cain could be ideal for the Dodgers, argues Morosi, who suggests they’re likely to adjust their outfield alignment in the coming weeks. Of course, barring other moves, picking up another outfielder would add to an already crowded situation in the grass for LA. The club currently has stellar rookie Cody Bellinger, unexpected 2017 star Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson in the mix as prominent outfield options, with Enrique Hernandez and Franklin Gutierrez adding further depth and Andre Ethier on the disabled list.
Along with potentially addressing their outfield, it’s “increasingly apparent” that the Dodgers will look for rotation help, relays Morosi. Dodgers starters rank third in the majors in both ERA and fWAR, but Morosi points out that some of their hurlers are health risks and they’ll also want to avoid starting ace Clayton Kershaw on short rest if they get to the NLDS. Kershaw took the hill in that scenario during each of the previous four division series in which the Dodgers participated.
While Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez’s name has come up in connection to St. Louis, the fact that the Cardinals are 11.5 games out of a wild-card spot might steer them away from position player rentals, notes Olney. As of now, the Redbirds only have one realistic path to a playoff berth – by winning the NL Central – but they also have plenty of ground to make up there (5.5 games). Moreover, they may have a sleeping giant to contend with in the reigning champion Cubs, who are 2.5 games behind upstart Milwaukee for the division lead.

NL Notes: Phillies, Neshek, Reds, Syndergaard

By Connor Byrne | June 8, 2017 at 2:58pm CDT

Contract-year reliever Pat Neshek has enjoyed his season with the Phillies, but the right-hander expects to end up in another uniform by the trade deadline, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. “I would say yes,” Neshek said. “It would be really cool to stay around here. I like it here. I feel very comfortable here. But if that happens … I’m sure it will happen.” The 36-year-old joined the Phillies in an offseason deal with the Astros, and though Neshek’s now on a rebuilding team instead of a contender, he regards the trade as “the best thing that happened to me in a few years.” Given their impressive collection of relievers, Neshek understands why the Astros phased him out, but he was “miserable” in a diminished role last season. “I would almost rather retire than do a role like I was doing for them,” commented Neshek, who has taken advantage of a higher-leverage job in Philadelphia. One of the few Phillies to perform well in 2017, Neshek has pitched to a microscopic .82 ERA over 22 innings, also posting 8.59 K/9 against 1.64 BB/9. In doing so, the $6.5MM man has beefed up his trade value, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently noted.

Cafardo’s Latest: Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Quintana, Cueto, Samardzija, Rangers, Cozart

By Mark Polishuk | June 3, 2017 at 4:32pm CDT

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at nine teams who are trending upward this season and nine teams who are on the downward swing in his latest notes column. These rankings (and Cafardo’s piece in general) contain several hot stove items as teams look to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. The highlights…

The Yankees are looking for a third baseman, according to league sources. Chase Headley got off to a hot start but scuffled badly in May, posting just a .446 OPS in 90 plate appearances last month. Top prospect Gleyber Torres has been getting some reps at third base in the minors amidst rumors that he could be promoted later this season, though New York could prefer a more proven veteran for the hot corner if the team is chasing a pennant. Headley is still owed $21.6MM through the end of the 2018 season, though the Yankees have shown a willingness to reduce the playing time of other highly-paid veterans in the past if they aren’t producing.
“Most talent evaluators” believe the Dodgers will make a play for the top starter available at the deadline. The Dodgers’ rotation has combined for 6.2 fWAR (second in baseball) and a 3.94 ERA (third in baseball), though given the number of injury concerns within their staff, it wouldn’t be a shock if L.A. pursued yet another notable arm.
Cafardo also suggests that the Cubs will look to acquire a top starter, even if they’re one of the teams on the “trending down” list. Cafardo believes the retirement of clubhouse leader David Ross has had a bigger impact on the Cubs than the team is willing to admit.
Some teams that were in on Jose Quintana have cooled their interest thanks to the southpaw’s rough start to the season. There has been some questions about whether Quintana is healthy, though the White Sox say he is healthy. Quintana has a 5.60 ERA in 64 1/3 innings, with career highs in BB/9 (3.36) and homer rate (13%) combining with a career-low 37.8% ground ball rate. On the plus side, he also has a career-best 8.96 K/9 and ERA indicators are all over a run lower than his 5.60 real-world ERA.
“Don’t look for major subtractions” from the Giants, even if the team doesn’t make any additions at the deadline. Cafardo doesn’t expect the Giants to deal the likes of Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija. I would imagine San Francisco is hoping to make a quick return to contention next season, though if Cueto gives them an indication that he’ll opt out of his contract this winter, a trade could be explored.
The Rangers are also a team that won’t go into full-scale selling mode, so Cafardo expects them to wait and see if they should pursue starting pitching help for a run at a wild card slot.
Zack Cozart has often been mentioned in trade rumors over the last couple of years as the Reds have been rebuilding, though one AL GM wonders why Cincinnati hasn’t instead explored an extension with the veteran shortstop. The Reds’ long-term plan is to have Jose Peraza at short and Dilson Herrera at second, so on paper, Cozart makes more sense as a trade chip than a building block. While Cozart is mashing the ball and playing his usual excellent defense, he also turns 32 in August and may be declining by the time the Reds are again ready to contend.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Zack Cozart

By Jeff Todd | May 4, 2017 at 11:36am CDT

Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has long been an interesting player, with outstanding glovework making him a regular at short despite an often-lagging bat. But he began to show signs of life at the plate in 2015, suggesting the possibility of more. Now, at 31 years of age — with free agency beckoning at season’s end — Cozart is playing like an All-Star.

Perhaps this surge would now be less surprising had it not been for a devastating knee injury that disrupted Cozart’s ’15 campaign after just 53 games. At that point, he was slashing .258/.310/.459 and had swatted nine home runs. Upon returning last year, Cozart fell back a bit in overall productivity, but still managed 16 long balls and produced a 91 wRC+ — good enough to make him a 2.5 fWAR player.

Cozart has opened the 2017 season on a hot streak. It’s still early — he has only taken 97 plate appearances — so it’s best to temper expectations. But perhaps there’s more to it than just noting the surge and cautioning on the sample size. He’s hitting a BABIP-aided .329 and delivering an excellent isolated slugging mark (.220) despite just one home run. That’s all promising enough. But Cozart is also walking at heretofore-unseen levels. He entered the year with just a 5.6% career walk rate, but has nearly tripled that (to 14.4%) in the early going, leaving him with a robust .423 on-base percentage .

As ever, it’s fair to wonder whether that apparent improvement can be sustained. Cozart is approaching, but hasn’t quite reached, the stabilization point for walk rate, and even then you’d have to maintain a healthy degree of skepticism and bear in mind his longer track record. But this is the third straight year that Cozart has shown growth in his ability to take free passes. And there are other signs of a real change that shouldn’t be ignored. Cozart’s swing percentage sits at just under forty percent, well shy of his 46.5% career mark. And he’s not just watching more strikes go by: Cozart has offered at pitches out of the zone just 22.7% of the time, a significant reduction from his 29.4% career average. When he does swing, Cozart is missing just 5.6% of the time; again, that’s a significant change (7.3% career SwStr%).

While his strikeout rate is also up a bit, that’s an easy sacrifice to make when these are the results. It would be silly to expect Cozart to continue walking with quite this frequency, but even a bump up to league average (8.8%) would represent a major change in his profile. That might support a league-average on-base percentage. Combine that with the fact that Cozart has posted above-average isolated slugging marks over the past three seasons, and you’re suddenly looking at a real offensive threat.

Let’s not forget: the real calling card here is defense. Cozart doesn’t get talked about as one of the game’s best fielders, but metrics suggest he is. We’re not looking at a small sample here, either. Since he began receiving regular playing time in 2012, Cozart has been an elite defender. While he has traditionally rated as merely an average baserunner, the glove is good enough that Cozart doesn’t have to hit all that much to be an asset.

So, the arrow is pointing up right now, though there’s obviously a long season ahead. Cozart did miss time last year with ongoing issues relating to his 2015 knee surgery; while it seems he’s healthy now, he’ll need to stay that way. And teams will be watching closely to see just what portion of Cozart’s improvements at the plate can be maintained throughout the course of a long season.

As we watch to see how things progress — gauging not only Cozart’s open-market value but also his trade value this summer — there are some markers to bear in mind. Come August, Cozart will reach 32 years of age — just as J.J. Hardy did back in 2014 before signing a three-year, $40MM extension with the Orioles that kept him from reaching the open market. Hardy was an even more extreme version of Cozart at the plate, and was a similarly excellent defender, so seems a highly relevant comp. Though Hardy had a clearer record of success to that point, though, he also hadn’t shown anything like Cozart’s current changes at the plate.

If you see Cozart as a slightly above-average hitter, whose power is sometimes offset by questionable on-base numbers and patches of streakiness, then you’re looking at something like the profile of Ian Desmond, who just landed $70MM over five years. True, Cozart is a middling baserunner, while Desmond is one of the game’s best. But the situation is flipped on defense, where Cozart’s high-level play at short outeighs Desmond’s versatility. But the best aspirational comp is perhaps Brandon Crawford, whose blend of solid plate discipline and pop with otherworldly defense has made him a star (and earned him a six-year, $75MM extension).

Of course, it’s far from clear that Cozart will be able to score anything approaching those kinds of years and dollars, particularly given his age and the still-unknown level of demand. But he’s beginning to make out an argument that he’s just as valuable a player as some of his better-known peers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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