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Phil Hughes Announces Retirement

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Phil Hughes officially announced his retirement from baseball today via Twitter. Hughes last pitched in the Majors in 2018 as a member of the San Diego Padres. While his final 16 appearances came out of the Padres bullpen, the No. 23 overall pick of the 2004 draft spent most of his 12-year career split between the Yankees and Twins.

In his own words, Hughes begins his announcement by saying, “While it’s been fairly apparent to most over these last couple years, I’d like to officially announce my retirement from baseball. Through many ups and downs over 12 years, I look back and am incredibly proud of what I was able to accomplish.”

Hughes took some time finding his way, and he ultimately leaves the game as an underrated hurler. After debuting in pinstripes during the 2007 season, he became linked in many minds to Joba Chamberlain as a pair of promising arms that didn’t pan out quite as intended for the Yankees. That said, Hughes has plenty to be proud of after carving out a successful big league career.

He was prematurely crowned a future ace for the Yankees, but he nevertheless developed as a significant contributor setting up games for Mariano Rivera during New York’s 2009 title run. Hughes posted a 3.03 ERA/3.22 FIP over 86 innings that season, including nine appearances in the postseason.

Hughes would settle in as a starter during a four-year run from 2012 to 2015. His best year came in 2014, his first with the Twins in which he logged 209 2/3 frames with a 3.52 ERA/2.65 FIP and an ML-leading 11.63 K/BB rate and a 7th-place Cy Young finish. Injuries and circumstances may have altered Hughes’ ultimate trajectory, but his emergence in Minnesota became a feel-good story for as long as his health allowed.

In total, the 34-year-ol Hughes retires with 11.2 bWAR, but 17.7 fWAR, indicating his ultimate work level might have been underappreciated at the time. He spent seven seasons with the Yankees and five with the Twins, with one All-Star appearances in 2010. Congrats to Hughes on a long and successful career.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?

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Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window.  January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

Who will sign Tomoyuki Sugano?
Mets 21.99% (4,036 votes)
Giants 15.08% (2,768 votes)
Blue Jays 14.77% (2,710 votes)
Another MLB team 13.22% (2,425 votes)
Red Sox 11.98% (2,198 votes)
Nobody --- Sugano will remain in Japan 11.06% (2,030 votes)
Padres 7.93% (1,455 votes)
Rangers 3.97% (728 votes)
Total Votes: 18,350

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade

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Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.

In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.

For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.

Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.

(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)

Grade the Darvish trade for the Cubs
C 33.65% (8,506 votes)
D 25.49% (6,444 votes)
B 18.70% (4,728 votes)
F 15.69% (3,967 votes)
A 6.46% (1,634 votes)
Total Votes: 25,279
Grade the Darvish trade for the Padres
A 64.62% (15,251 votes)
B 27.79% (6,560 votes)
C 4.65% (1,098 votes)
F 1.49% (351 votes)
D 1.45% (342 votes)
Total Votes: 23,602

Padres Designate Greg Allen

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The Padres announced that they have designated outfielder Greg Allen for assignment. The move creates 40-man roster space for newly signed infielder Ha-Seong Kim, whose deal is official.

Allen joined the Padres as a secondary piece in the blockbuster August trade that also sent right-hander Mike Clevinger from Cleveland to San Diego, though the outfielder only played in one game with his new team. He ended the year as a .154/.281/.308 hitter with one home run in 32 plate appearances between the two clubs.

Last season’s 61 wRC+ was essentially par for the course for the 27-year-old Allen, who has batted .239/.298/.343 (69 wRC+) over 618 PA since he first played in the majors in 2017. Allen has lined up at all three outfield positions and combined for four Defensive Runs Saved, which is a plus; on the other hand, Allen’s offensive struggles and total lack of minor league options shouldn’t do him any favors as he reaches DFA limbo.

Padres Sign Ha-Seong Kim

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DEC. 31, 6:06pm: The Padres have announced Kim’s signing. His deal includes a mutual option for 2025. The option could increase the value to $39MM, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports. Yoo adds that the Heroes will receive $5.25MM as the posting fee.

5:21pm:Kim’s actually guaranteed $28MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. He could earn a maximum of $32MM based on incentives for plate appearances.

DEC. 28: The Padres have reached an agreement to sign free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). Kim, a client of ISE Baseball, will receive a four-year, $25MM contract according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Kim, 25, became available to MLB clubs earlier this month when his KBO team, the Kiwoom Heroes, posted him for bidding.

Kim debuted as a teenager in the KBO, allowing him to push for his team to post him at a much earlier age than most stars in South Korea and Japan. Because of his youth and excellent track record, Kim was among the more desirable free agents on the market this winter, landing seventh on MLBTR’s Top 50 list back in November.

Throughout his career to date, Kim has been an above-average player in Korea, but his game soared to new heights in 2019 even as the KBO altered the composition of its ball in order to cut back on the league’s hitter-friendly environment. Since 2019, Kim has batted .307/.393/.500 with 49 home runs, 62 doubles, three triples and a 56-for-62 showing in stolen base attempts. He’s been 42 percent better than a league-average hitter there over the past two seasons, by measure of wRC+. Back in May, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser wrote that signing Kim would be akin to inking a Top 100 prospect. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen have expressed similar sentiments, calling Kim a potential regular at second base, shortstop or third base in MLB.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that San Diego’s plan is to play Kim at second base and move 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth to left field. Of course, at this point it’s not wise to make any assumptions about just how the Padres’ roster will take shape. General manager A.J. Preller agreed to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays just last night and is simultaneously “deep” into talks to acquire Yu Darvish and perhaps some catching help — either Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini — from the Cubs. Until we know the players headed back to Chicago in that potential swap, it’s hard to gauge exactly how things will look.

At this point, however, it should be expected that Kim will be utilized on a near-everyday basis — be it as the primary second baseman or as an oft-used super-utility player. Kim is an above-average defender at shortstop, per Longenhagen, who cites “expansive” lateral range and a plus-plus throwing arm as the primary factors working in his favor. Generally speaking, most players capable of playing a strong shortstop are well-equipped to provide good defense at either second or third base, so Kim has the potential to impact the Friars on both sides of the ball.

There figures to be an adjustment period at the plate, given the gap between KBO pitching and MLB pitching, but Kim struck out at just a 10.9 percent clip in 2020. Even with inevitable regression as he gets used to better velocity, those bat-to-ball skills should give him a chance to hold his own right out of the gate.

Whether it’s Darvish or someone else, other moves figure to follow now that agreements to bring Kim and Snell to San Diego are in place. Preller has shown in the past that his additions come in rapid succession, and his activity over the past 24 hours seems to suggest that we’re in the midst of another deluge of Padres moves.

Padres In Talks With Kirby Yates, Still Interested In Jurickson Profar

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Having radically overhauled their rotation and infield mix this week with the acquisitions of Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Ha-Seong Kim, the Padres are now shifting their focus to the bullpen and to outfield depth, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Their current pursuits include a pair of potential reunions: closer Kirby Yates and infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar.

Yates, according to Acee, is “likely looking at” an incentive-laden deal with a guarantee upwards of $5MM. Profar’s target price isn’t fully clear, though Acee suggests the Padres’ interest has been in a deal around the $5MM range as well. There’s no indication that either Yates of Profar is close to a deal that would bring them back to San Diego, but the interest and potential price ranges are nevertheless of note.

The continued interest in Profar, in particular, was far from a given after this week’s dealings. San Diego’s four-year deal with Kim added another option to an already crowded infield mix — so much so that there have been varying reports on the possibility of toying with either Kim or 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth in left field. Profar would only further add another second base/left field option to the pile.

Presently, the Padres’ starting outfield is likely to consist of Wil Myers, Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham. The team does lack an experienced reserve option, though. Neither Kim nor Cronenworth has any outfield experience of note. Other options include Greg Allen, former top prospect Jorge Mateo and young Jorge Ona. San Diego also has 28-year-old Brian O’Grady on the 40-man roster at the moment, but his MLB experience is limited to 53 plate appearances. Both Allen and Mateo are out of minor league options, which would work in their favor if they made it to the end of Spring Training still on the 40-man roster, but neither impressed in 2020.

Turning to the bullpen, the Padres have a rather deep slate of options even if a reunion with Yates or a new contract with a similar veteran can’t be worked out. Both Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan have considerable late-inning experience. Matt Strahm has emerged as a quality ’pen option in recent years, and righty Pierce Johnson was excellent in his return from Japan this past season. San Diego also picked up Dan Altavilla and strikeout machine Austin Adams from the Mariners in the Austin Nola/Taylor Trammell swap, and veteran Craig Stammen is still under contract for another season. None of that even gets into the bevy of young arms in the upper levels of the Padres’ system.

Still, the appeal of Yates is obvious. Though bone spurs in his elbow limited the 34-year-old to just 4 1/3 innings in 2020, Yates starred as one of baseball’s premier relievers with the Padres from 2018-19, pitching to a combined 1.67 ERA with 13.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and racking up 53 saves along the way. Few relievers on the market can match his upside, making him a particularly appealing gamble for a club with plenty of alternate depth.

This week’s flurry of activity will likely push the Padres’ 2021 payroll north of $160MM, which would position them as the rare MLB team to actually match last year’s payroll totals. Further additions, even smaller-scale pickups such as Yates or Profar, would almost certainly push San Diego’s payroll even higher than last year’s franchise-record mark.

Padres Acquire Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini

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DEC. 29, 10:07pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Cubs will pay $3MM of Darvish’s remaining money, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Heyman. Darvish has $62MM left on his contract – not the previously reported $59MM – because of the incentives he reached for finishing second in 2020 NL Cy Young voting, Bastian notes.

DEC. 28: The Cubs and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from Chicago to San Diego, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. The Cubs will receive righty Zach Davies, shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana, and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena in return. The trade is done pending medical records, and the sides could finalize it Tuesday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  Chicago will pick up “a minor portion” of Darvish’s remaining money, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds.

This deal does not come as a surprise, as the two sides had been in deep discussions about Darvish throughout the day. It’s the latest bold strike for the Padres, who are coming off their first playoff season since 2006 and clearly plan to vie for their first-ever World Series title next year. Even before landing Darvish, they made a huge addition to their rotation Sunday by agreeing to pick up left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays. They also agreed to sign Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, making for an epic 24-hour period of dealmaking for GM A.J. Preller.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are losing perhaps their best starter in Darvish – a 2020 National League Cy Young finalist – as well as a quality catcher in Caratini. Although the Cubs are just a couple months removed from their fifth playoff berth in six years, ownership entered the offseason unlikely to spend after a pandemic-shortened campaign. Indeed, the Cubs previously saved money by saying goodbye to Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora at the non-tender deadline, while pricey third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has been the subject of trade speculation. It’s unclear whether the Padres will take on all of Darvish’s remaining contract, but if they do, that’ll be $59MM on their books over the next three years. Caratini’s much more affordable, as he will earn a projected $1.2MM to $1.6MM in 2021. Caratini isn’t on track for free agency until after 2023.

In heading to San Diego, Darvish will reunite with Preller, who was part of the Rangers’ front office when they signed Darvish out of Japan before the 2012 season. Darvish, now 34, has since enjoyed a terrific career divided among the Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs, and last season was likely his best yet. He ended up with 76 innings of 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP ball, posted 11.01 K/9 against 1.66 BB/9, and averaged a personal-high 95.5 mph on his fastball. He’ll now slot in near the top of a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery but will still feature Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack as locks for rotation jobs (barring other aggressive moves). The Padres also boast multiple high-end pitching prospects, including MacKenzie Gore.

Caratini, 27, was Darvish’s personal catcher in Chicago, but he was a reserve behind No. 1 backstop Willson Contreras. Caratini debuted with the Cubs in 2017 and has since offered passable offense relative to his position, having batted .250/.327/.372 in 677 plate appearances. Caratini was also a well-regarded defender in Chicago, including when he ranked in Statcast’s 98th percentile in the pitch-framing department last season. He’ll join Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as catchers on the Padres’ 40-man roster.

For the Cubs, this deal represents their first blockbuster trade under new president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, their former GM who earned a promotion after Theo Epstein stepped down in November. Losing Darvish and Caratini may not go over well for their fan base, but the Cubs are banking on Davies helping replace Darvish in 2021 and the young talent they received emerging as cornerstones.

Davies was somewhat quietly a top-tier starter in 2020, his only year as a Padre, as he recorded 69 1/3 frames of 2.73 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 8.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. He should look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021, though the 27-year-old Davies isn’t controllable beyond then. He’ll earn a projected $6.3MM to $10.6MM via arbitration next season.

The rest of the Cubs’ return doesn’t consist of any elite farmhands, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America notes that BA was planning to rank Preciado (No. 15), Mena (17), Santana (18) and Caissie (20) among the Padres’ 20 best prospects in its upcoming Prospect Handbook.

Just 17 years old, BA rated Preciado 23rd in the Padres’ farm system midway through last season, writing that the 6-foot-4 switch hitter’s “frame provides hope he can grow into 20-plus home run power as he matures physically.”

Mena, 18, signed an expensive $2.2MM bonus with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic during the 2019-20 international signing period. BA lauded Mena’s speed, range and potential 15- to 20-home run power earlier this year.

The 20-year-old Santana put up impressive production in rookie ball from 2018-19, when he combined for a .306/.418/.425 line in 365 plate appearances. The Canadian-born Caissie, 18, was a second-round pick (No. 45) of the Padres last summer. BA wrote before the draft that Caissie possesses “exciting upside,” though there are “some significant swing-and-miss concerns” in his game.

All things considered, this looks like a trade between two NL playoff teams going in different directions. The Padres appear to be all in on playing for a championship in 2021. It’s hard to say the same for the Cubs, who seem to be a club in retooling mode.

Padres Notes: Infield, Profar, Yates

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No Major League Baseball team has done more to improve itself recently than the Padres, who aren’t content to rest on their laurels after earning their first playoff berth since 2006. Going back to Sunday, the Padres have acquired 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell from the Rays, reached a deal with Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim and agreed to land right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from the Cubs. In an extensive breakdown of the Padres’ sudden flurry of moves, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN declares that they’re one of the two best teams in baseball, joining the division-rival Dodgers. And even after the Snell and Darvish trades, the Padres still boast a well-above-average farm system. In McDaniel’s estimation, San Diego could be a serious contender “without any real sign of a terrible contract” for at least the next three years.

Here’s more on the Padres:

  • The Padres are open to trying both Kim and Jake Cronenworth in the outfield next season, tweets Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There have been conflicting reports on San Diego’s plans for Cronenworth, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Rookie of the Year runner-up. Joel Sherman of the New York Post said yesterday the plan was to move him to the outfield with Kim taking regular reps at second base, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night that one source in the organization said there are no plans to put Cronenworth in the outfield. The team will evaluate its options in Spring Training, it seems. It’s perhaps even worth pointing out that the club has previously considered the possibility of Fernando Tatis Jr. in the outfield, so the Friars will certainly be open-minded in sorting out their infield mix.
  • Thanks in part to the addition of Kim, it “appears unlikely” the Padres will re-sign free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, Lin reports. The switch-hitting Profar enjoyed a productive year in 2020, which could go down as his lone season as a Padre, with a .277/.343/.428 line, seven home runs and seven stolen bases in 202 plate appearances. But it doesn’t look as if there’s room in San Diego anymore for Profar, as team officials suggested Monday that the Pads’ bench is at capacity, per Lin.
  • A Profar reunion may not be in the cards, but with the Padres still needing to bolster their bullpen, it’s a “possibility” they’ll re-sign free-agent reliever Kirby Yates, Lin writes. Yates unexpectedly turned into an elite reliever after San Diego claimed him via waivers from the Angels in 2017, and he went on to pitch to a 2.31 ERA/2.42 FIP with 13.95 K/9, 2.46 BB/9 and 54 saves in 179 1/3 innings through 2019. However, Yates barely factored in during his contract year last season because of elbow problems. The 33-year-old righty tallied just four innings before undergoing surgery in the middle of August. For the Padres or other teams hoping for a revival, though, Yates could make for an interesting pickup on what’s sure to be a reasonable contract.

Padres Acquire Blake Snell From Rays

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TODAY: The Padres have officially announced the trade.

DECEMBER 28: The Padres have an agreement in place to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, report Dennis Lin, Josh Tolentino and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejía and prospects Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox are headed back to Tampa Bay. The deal is pending review of medicals. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports had first reported the two sides were in discussions about a potential Snell trade.

It’s a shocking, out-of-the-blue acquisition for San Diego. The Rays were known to be open to offers on Snell, but there had been no indication prior to tonight any deal was particularly close. Snell, 28, is one of the sport’s best pitchers. The 2018 American League Cy Young winner, he has posted a 2.85 ERA across 337.2 innings over the past three seasons. Along the way, he’s struck out 32.1% of opposing hitters, holding them to a .206/.279/.350 slash line. This past season, Snell worked to a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with his typical strikeout and walk numbers.

Snell becomes the second big-ticket starting pitcher acquired by the Padres within the past six months. San Diego picked up Mike Clevinger from the Indians prior to the August 31 trade deadline. Clevinger, though, required Tommy John surgery after the season, leaving the Padres looking to add to their rotation. They’ve done so with a bang, picking up perhaps the top starter available on the trade market. Snell will join Dinelson Lamet, who’s coming off a Cy Young caliber 2020, at the top of a rotation that also features Zach Davies and Chris Paddack and should soon welcome top prospect MacKenzie Gore, to say nothing of fellow prized prospect Adrián Morejón.

The Padres are clearly aiming to push the reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the NL West in both 2021 and beyond. In addition to that high-end rotation, San Diego boasts an enviable position player core including Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and a resurgent Eric Hosmer. It’s a win-now strike, but it’s not solely a move for next year. Snell comes with three seasons of remaining control under the terms of the extension he signed with Tampa Bay in March 2019. He’ll make a bargain $10.5MM salary next season, with respective salaries of $12.5MM and $16MM the following two years (his 2023 figure has potential escalators based on future Cy Young finishes).

Snell’s combination of high-end talent and cheap, long-term control meant the Padres had no choice but to offer an elite package to pry him from Tampa. All four players headed back to the Rays are highly-regarded youngsters, headlined by the 21-year-old Patiño. A 2016 international signee out of Colombia, the extremely athletic right-hander quickly emerged as one of the game’s best prospects. Each of Baseball America, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen placed him among the top twenty farmhands in the sport entering 2020. He draws praise for a mid-high 90’s fastball and plus slider and shows the makings of a plus changeup and above-average control, per Baseball America.

Patiño made his MLB debut, mostly working out of the bullpen, in 2020. His first 17.1 MLB innings didn’t go well, as he struggled to throw strikes and only managed a 5.19 ERA. But Patiño had only thrown 7.2 innings above A-ball entering the season and surely would’ve been given more minor-league time in 2020 had there been a season. He was nothing short of dominant in the low minors from 2018-19 and is a high-upside arm who could contribute for Tampa Bay in the near future. Patiño has yet to accrue a full year of service and comes with six seasons of team control. If he were to stick in the majors for good, he’d be controllable through 2026.

Hunt, too, has emerged as a top 100 caliber prospect, tweets Longenhagen. The 22-year-old catcher has “been hitting to all fields with power” and shown high-end arm strength in recent workouts, he adds. Hunt placed just 20th among Padre farmhands in Baseball America’s midseason system rankings but seems to have turned a corner in recent months. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 over 376 plate appearances in Low-A.

While Hunt may have the brighter long-term future behind the plate, Mejía isn’t far removed from being seen as an elite catching talent himself. The 25-year-old ranked among Baseball America’s top 35 overall prospects every year between 2017 and 2019 and headlined the Padres-Indians 2018 Brad Hand blockbuster. He comes with question marks about his aptitude behind the dish and has compiled just a .225/.282/.386 slash line in 362 career plate appearances over the past four seasons.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined, though, it’s easy to understand the appeal he holds to Tampa Bay. Mejía’s a switch-hitter who demonstrated elite bat-to-ball skills in the minors and has a top-of-the-scale arm. Given his lack of MLB track record, there’s more risk in his profile than there may have been at the peak of his prospect status, but Mejía carries some long-term intrigue and can immediately step into the Rays’ catching mix with Mike Zunino. Mejía has two-plus years of service and can be controlled through the 2024 season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter.

Rounding out the return is Wilcox, a 2020 draftee out of the University of Georgia. Selected in the third round, Wilcox was generally seen as a first-round talent who fell because of a high bonus demand as a draft-eligible sophomore. The Padres signed the 21-year-old for an overslot $3.3MM signing bonus. The right-hander has a high-90’s fastball with a pair of promising secondaries in his slider and changeup, Baseball America noted in their pre-draft scouting report. Wilcox was ranked twelfth among San Diego farmhands by BA.

From a broader perspective, the trade is symbolic of the respective team-building approaches of the two organizations. Padres GM A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make bold acquisitions both through trade and free agency, leveraging the treasure trove of prospects the club accrued throughout their rebuild to support an emergent core of homegrown talent. The Padres still boast plenty of talent in the system they could leverage for future additions to the MLB roster, with the bullpen standing out as a potential target area.

Altogether, the addition of Snell cements the Friars alongside the Dodgers and Braves as the top three teams in the National League. The Snell acquisition brings the San Diego payroll to a projected $141MM after factoring in arbitration raises, per Roster Resource. That leaves a little bit of wiggle room under last year’s season-opening payroll of $157MM (before prorating) if ownership is willing to repeat that level of spending.

The Rays, meanwhile, continue to operate without regard to name recognition, showing a willingness to move anyone if they can recoup what they deem sufficient value. Tampa Bay continuously churns the major league roster while prioritizing long-term control and cost certainty. That’s helped them compile a farm system that was generally regarded as the league’s strongest even before today’s haul of prospects.

Between Snell and Charlie Morton, however, the reigning American League champs have moved on from two of their top three starters this winter. Tampa Bay now figures to add pitching this offseason as they look to compete with the Yankees and hold off the Blue Jays at the top of the AL East. With Snell’s contract off the books, the Rays’ payroll is down to a projected $57MM, per Roster Resource, $17MM shy of last season’s opening payroll of $74MM (before prorating).

This post was originally published on December 27th.

Padres, Cubs Nearing Yu Darvish Trade

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8:32pm: Padres outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana are other names in discussion, Mayo reports.

8:20pm: Davies and “several prospects,” including 2020 second-round outfielder Owen Caissie, will be going to the Cubs, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Shortstop Reginald Preciado will also head to Chicago, per Acee, who adds that the trade features “two other prospects.” The Cubs won’t get any of the Padres’ top five prospects, according to Nightengale.

7:10pm: Caratini will be part of the trade once it occurs, but Campusano won’t, Nightengale tweets.

6:58pm: The clubs are close to a deal and appear as if they’ll finalize it tonight, per Nightengale.

4:32pm: The trade looks to be close, Heyman tweets. Caratini would “likely” join Darvish in San Diego, though the Cubs want “some MLB experience” as part of their return.

3:04pm: The two teams are nearing agreement “on the multiple pieces” of a Darvish trade, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Pads “have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs,” Acee writes.

2:50pm: Top catching prospect Luis Campusano is among the names that has been discussed, Nightengale reports. His inclusion in the deal would give the Cubs a replacement should they send a catcher to the Padres. Campusano would join Miguel Amaya as a potential long-term option at the position with Contreras up for free agency in two years (if he’s not traded in this or another deal first).

2:03pm: There’s “growing optimism” that the two sides will complete a deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, adding that an agreement could come together as soon as today.

12:28pm: The Padres are focused on more than Darvish alone, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). Both suggest that the talks between the Cubs and Padres could be expanded to include one of Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini.

The Padres’ catching corps has turned over considerably over the past year, with Francisco Mejia now with in Tampa Bay, Austin Hedges in Cleveland and Luis Torrens in Seattle. The Friars have Austin Nola atop their catching depth chart, with touted prospect Luis Campusano behind him, but the latter is still lacking in MLB experience. Either Chicago catcher would bolster the group, and Contreras would likely push Nola into a super-utility role similar to the one in which he thrived with the Mariners.

11:56am: Despite last night’s agreement to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, the Cubs are also “deep” in talks on a trade that would send Yu Darvish from Chicago to San Diego, according to Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports first indicated that the Padres were still in the mix for Darvish even after landing Snell. Importantly, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that San Diego is not on Darvish’s 12-team no-trade list, so the deal can be made without requiring Darvish’s approval.

If completed, the Darvish trade could be the next step in another dizzying flurry of headline-grabbing transactions from general manager A.J. Preller. In addition to Snell and the potential Darvish deal, the Padres are also reported to be the favorites to sign KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim. If all three moves come to fruition, this sequence would hearken back to Preller’s inaugural offseason, wherein Matt Kemp dubbed him the “Rock Star” GM — and back to this summer’s frenzied series of trade deadline acquisitions. Few front offices around the game act as boldly and decisively as the Padres when a course is set, and the Snell acquisition clearly looks to have set some dominos in motion.

It’s at least possible there’s a connection between today’s pair of Friars rumors; the Cubs surely want controllable young talent, and a player like Jake Cronenworth would certainly be of interest to them in a Darvish deal. That’s speculative on my part, to be clear, but it’s not hard to see how those pieces could fit into place. Alternatively, if the Padres were to send an outfielder with a notable salary back to Chicago to help offset Darvish’s contract (e.g. Tommy Pham, Wil Myers), Cronenworth could move into the outfield if needed.

Darvish, 34, is still owed $62MM over the next three seasons as part of the six-year, $126MM he initially signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season. The first year of that massive contract could scarcely have gone worse, as Darvish was limited to just 40 innings due to a series of injuries that culminated in arthroscopic elbow surgery.

At that point, few would’ve imagined Darvish resurfacing as both a front-line starter and a highly sought-after trade commodity, but that’s exactly what’s happened. Darvish finished second in National League Cy Young voting in 2020, thanks to a brilliant 2.01 ERA and 93-to-13 K/BB ratio through 76 innings. However, his renaissance extends further back than that.

Dating back to Memorial Day 2019, Darvish has made 32 starts and totaled 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. At less than $21MM a year, this version of Darvish looks like a relative bargain, though buying his age-34, age-35 and age-36 seasons obviously still carries risk. Darvish is also a favorite of Preller — a former Rangers assistant GM who played an integral part in scouting and signing Darvish during his time with Texas.

The very notion of a rotation featuring some combination of Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies and MacKenzie Gore is a dream scenario for Padres fans — the type of starting staff that would give the Friars a group to go toe-to-toe with the perennial division winners up in Los Angeles. Few teams in the game could boast such a deep and talented group of starting pitchers, and while Davies is a free agent next winter, the Padres will get Mike Clevinger back from Tommy John surgery for the 2022 season. A 2022 group of Snell, Darvish, Lamet, Clevinger, Paddack and Gore has the potential to be utterly overwhelming.

For the Cubs, trading away some combination of Darvish, Contreras and Caratini would be a painful first step in at least some degree of a rebuilding effort. While the Cubs probably won’t tear the roster down to the studs, there’s also some inevitable change on the horizon. Cornerstone pieces like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are all free agents next winter. Kyle Schwarber would’ve joined that group but has already been non-tendered. Contreras is only controlled through 2022.

Improbable as it would have seemed a few years back, Darvish now stands out as one of president Jed Hoyer’s most desirable trade targets to dangle for other teams, joining Contreras and Kyle Hendricks in that regard. Trading Darvish (and Contreras or Caratini) would give the Cubs an avenue to clear salary and acquire controllable talent for the team’s next core.

However this plays out, it seems likely that more moves will be on the horizon for the Padres and Cubs alike. The Cubs could either jump into free agency to add a Darvish replacement at a lower cost, or they could continue to shop veteran stars like Bryant and Hendricks. And for the Padres, Preller’s history suggests that more moves are likely to follow even if Darvish, Kim and one of Contreras/Caratini all land in San Diego. The Padres could still use some help in the bullpen, for instance, and they’ll likely send some MLB talent to Chicago in order to push the Darvish deal across the line. It’s going to be a busy week in San Diego.

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