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Twins Acquire Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan From Padres For Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker

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10:33am: The Padres are receiving $6.6MM from the Twins, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That effectively reduces Rogers’ $7.3MM salary to the new $700K league minimum.

10:00am: The Twins saved one more move in their whirlwind offseason for what was scheduled to be Opening Day (before said opener was pushed back to Friday due to weather). Minnesota announced Thursday the acquisition of right-handed starter Chris Paddack and righty reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and first baseman/outfielder Brent Rooker. The Twins will also receive a player to be named later and will send cash to San Diego in the deal. The Padres have also announced the trade.

Minnesota is  acquiring a pair of arms under club control for multiple seasons, as Paddack, who is earning $2.25MM in 2021 is only in his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’s controlled through the 2024 campaign. Pagan, meanwhile, is earning $2.3MM this season and is controlled through 2023 via arbitration. Rogers, 31, is set to earn $7.3MM this season in his final year of club control before reaching free agency. Rooker, 27, doesn’t yet have a full year of Major League service and is controllable through the 2027 season.

Chris Paddack | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The 26-year-old Paddack and his three remaining seasons of club control headline the trade for Minnesota. The 2015 eight-rounder broke out as one of the sport’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and delivered on that hype when he posted a 3.33 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate through 140 2/3 innings as a rookie. At that point, Paddack looked like a cornerstone piece for the Friars, and any near-term trade involving him would’ve seemed nearly impossible to fathom.

Paddack, however, has been unable to repeat that brilliant rookie performance. His 2020 campaign resulted in a 4.73 ERA in with a diminished 23.7% strikeout rate. He still worked a “full” slate of 12 starts and 59 innings during the shortened 2020 season, but the results and the underlying metrics weren’t nearly as strong as his 2019 debut. Paddack’s 2021 season represented an even further step back; in 108 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 5.07 ERA with a career-low 21.6% strikeout rate. More concerning, though, was the fact that he ended the season with a low-grade tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.

The Twins are likely convinced that Paddack’s elbow is healthy enough to rely on him as a rotation piece not only in 2022 but for the next several seasons. If that’s the case, they’ll focus their work with Paddack on further developing a third pitch to help him recapture his 2019 form. Paddack averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball last season and has been lauded for his plus changeup since his prospect days, but his curveball has been a below-average pitch for him at the big league level. If the Twins are able to help Paddack establish that third pitch, it stands to reason that his heater and changeup can trend closer to their 2019 effectiveness. There’s potential for a (second) breakout with Paddack, particularly given that his command has remained elite even through his 2020-21 struggles. The extent to which Minnesota can refine that third pitch (or develop an entirely new one) will be telling.

Minnesota is also picking up two years of control over the 30-year-old Pagan — another 2019 standout (with the Rays) who has had harder luck in San Diego. Acquired by the Padres on the heels of a 2.31 ERA with a dominant 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate in 2019, Pagan hasn’t been nearly as effective since being shipped to southern California. In 85 1/3 innings with the Friars, he posted a 4.75 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. Pagan has always been homer-prone, but that flaw ratcheted up to new levels in 2021 when he yielded an average of 2.27 long balls per nine frames.

Despite his recent struggles, however, Pagan has above-average strikeout rates and velocity. And, like Paddack, his command has been nothing short of outstanding (with the exception of the shortened 2020 season). He’s walked just 6.2% of his opponents at the big league level and has yielded only a .210 batting average and .264 on-base percentage in his career. A penchant for serving up home runs has been Pagan’s only real blemish, but if the Twins can clean up that issue — as the Rays did in 2019 and the Mariners did in 2017 — they’ll have a closing-caliber reliever on their hands for the next two seasons.

Coaxing a high-level performance out of Pagan will be all the more crucial for the Twins, as this morning’s trade sends their closer and one of the best left-handed relievers in all of baseball to San Diego. The 31-year-old Rogers has been a triumph in terms of player development for Minnesota, blossoming from a fairly nondescript back-of-the-rotation prospect to a late-inning buzzsaw who has overpowered opponents dating back to the 2018 season.

Taylor Rogers | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rogers, whose twin brother Tyler pitches for his new division rival in San Francisco, added a slider to his repertoire back in 2018 — first debuting the pitch on Memorial Day weekend that year. The change in his results was stunning. Carrying a 5.48 ERA at the time, Rogers pitched to a 1.34 ERA for the remainder of the season and whiffed 57 hitters in 47 innings. There’s been no looking back for him, either. Since debuting that devastating breaking ball on May 31, 2018, Rogers has posted a 2.58 ERA (2.54 SIERA) with a massive 32.5% strikeout rate, a tiny 4.6% walk rate and a hearty 48% grounder rate. He’s been one of the absolute best relievers in MLB during that span, racking up 50 saves and, in 2021, making his first All-Star team.

Dominant as Rogers has been, however, he isn’t without his own medical concerns. The lefty’s 2021 drew to an abrupt close when he exited his appearance on July 26 with discomfort in his left middle finger. It was eventually determined that Rogers had a damaged ligament in his pitching hand. As the Twins are with Paddack, San Diego is clearly banking on the belief that Rogers is healthy and able to bounce back to his typical form. If that’s indeed the case, they’ll be able to turn leads over to one of the game’s more effective relievers for the 2022 season before Rogers reaches free agency in the offseason.

Rooker is the fourth known piece of the deal at this time and gives the Padres a power-hitting corner outfield option who has yet to piece things together at the MLB level. Selected with the No. 35 overall pick back in 2017, the former Mississippi State star breezed through the minor leagues, hitting .263/.359/.516 while showing off his plus raw power. Rooker’s bat will need to carry him at the MLB level, however, as he’s a college first baseman who the Twins tried rather unsuccessfully as a left fielder (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average, -9.7 UZR/150 in 268 career innings).

Rooker has a pair of minor league options remaining and isn’t necessarily an immediate fix to the Padres’ corner outfield woes. He’ll give them an option there, at first base and at designated hitter — one who has light-tower power but also one who has punched out in 32.1% of his 234 big league plate appearances (against just a 6.4% walk rate). The 6’3″, 225-pound Rooker gives San Diego an intriguing power bat but also something of a project, as he’s already 27 years of age and hasn’t yet proven that he can handle big league pitching. Given his lack of defensive value, it’s paramount for the Padres that they put the finishing touches on the development of Rooker’s bat.

The Twins have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter, and while they didn’t add the marquee name many fans hoped, they’ve now acquired both Paddack and Sonny Gray while also signing Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. That quartet will join rookie Opening Day starter Joe Ryan and under-the-radar sophomore Bailey Ober in comprising Minnesota’s main group of starters, but the Twins also have plenty of well-regarded prospects on the horizon. Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino and Cole Sands are all getting close to the big leagues and could debut at some point in 2022.

As for the Padres, they’ll deal from a position of depth in order to strengthen the back end of their bullpen. Paddack has been a regular in the San Diego rotation for the past three seasons but was largely nudged out of the frame by a series of high-profile trade acquisitions. The Friars have added Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger and, most recently, Sean Manaea over the past year-plus, and they also signed righty Nick Martinez to a four-year deal this winter. Add in young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon (who’ll return from Tommy John surgery later this season), and it’s easy to see why they felt comfortable moving Paddack. It’s certainly a risk to sell low on a starter with his upside, but the Friars are adding one of the game’s more successful relievers and clearly have sufficient rotation depth to make a move of this nature.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last night that the two teams were discussing trade scenarios involving Paddack and Rogers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported this morning that a Paddack/Rogers trade was happening. Rosenthal reported that Pagan was in the deal, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Rooker’s inclusion. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune added that the Twins will receive a PTBNL, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweeted that Minnesota was including some cash in the swap.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Select C.J. Abrams, Jose Azocar; Kyle Tyler Designated For Assignment

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The Padres set their Opening Day roster Thursday, announcing that top prospect C.J. Abrams and outfielder Jose Azocar have been selected to the Major League roster. The Padres placed Fernando Tatis Jr. on the 60-day injured list and designated right-hander Kyle Tyler for assignment in a pair of corresponding 40-man moves.

Abrams is a consensus top prospect, ranked among the sport’s 15 most talented minor leaguers by each of Baseball America, The Athletic, FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Kiley McDaniel at ESPN is the most bullish of the group, slotting Abrams fourth among the sport’s prospects. Reports praise his top-of-the-scale speed and athleticism and excellent hit tool, although evaluators also suggest Abrams has a chance to hit for average or better power at peak.

San Diego originally selected Abrams with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft out of a Georgia high school. He hasn’t had much professional game experience. Abrams spent the second half of his first pro season in rookie ball, with a late cameo at Low-A. The pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor league season, and the Friars pushed him to Double-A Amarillo to start the 2021 season.

Abrams handled the aggressive assignment well, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases over 183 plate appearances. He showcased his advanced bat-to-ball skills with a 19.7% strikeout rate that was a few points below the league average, in spite of the fact that he was younger than virtually every arm he faced. Unfortunately, Abrams was deprived of a second half of reps after he fractured his left tibia and sprained his MCL in an on-field collision in early July.

There’s no doubt some risk for the Pads in pushing Abrams straight to the big leagues. He’s played all of 44 games above Rookie ball because of the pandemic and last season’s injury, none of that time at Triple-A. Yet there’s little question he has electric physical abilities, and the San Diego front office evidently feels he’s at least capable of keeping his head above water in the early going while continuing to develop into a core long-term piece.

Abrams has played the middle infield exclusively during his minor league tenure. Evaluators have been divided on his ability to stick at shortstop long-term, but the general consensus is that he’d be a solid defender at second base. Given his elite speed, Abrams could probably be a plus defender in the outfield as well, and he’s gotten some work on the grass this spring. He’ll presumably need more than a few weeks to become completely comfortable reading fly balls off the bat, but there’s little doubt he’s athletic enough to develop into a long-term outfield option.

It remains to be seen how first-year skipper Bob Melvin will deploy the 21-year-old in the early going. He figures to see some action at each of shortstop, second base and in the outfield. Jake Cronenworth has second base accounted for, but Tatis’ injury had thrust Ha-Seong Kim into the primary shortstop job. A well-regarded signee out of South Korea, Kim struggled during his rookie season in MLB. Melvin can give regular shortstop run to either of Abrams or Kim, and the Pads are set to rely on some combination of Jurickson Profar, Brent Rooker and Matt Beaty in left field.

The Padres aren’t wedded to keeping Abrams on the big league roster from here on out, as he’ll have all three minor league option years remaining. Yet San Diego wouldn’t have carried him out of camp if they didn’t feel he was ready for the challenge, and they’d certainly love if Abrams is in the big leagues to stay. If that’s the case, he’d be controllable through 2027 and wouldn’t reach arbitration eligibility until after the 2024 campaign. Future optional assignments, if needed, might push those trajectories back.

As a consensus top prospect, Abrams qualifies for the so-called Prospect Promotion Incentive in the new collective bargaining agreement. Based on his finishes in Rookie of the Year and MVP voting over his first three MLB seasons, the Padres could stand to collect some extra draft choices if he excels.

Azocar isn’t anywhere near the caliber of prospect Abrams is, but he’ll likewise be making his big league debut whenever he gets into a game. Signed by the Tigers as an amateur free agent from Venezuela in 2012, he spent eight seasons in the Detroit farm system and played his way to Double-A. After reaching minor league free agency, he landed with the Padres on a minors deal last winter.

The 25-year-old split last season between Amarillo and Triple-A El Paso. Over 544 plate appearances, he hit .281/.341/.438 with nine homers and 32 steals. Azocar has never hit more than 10 homers in a minor league season and has well below-average power, but evaluators have long credited him as a plus runner and solid defensive outfielder. He can play all three outfield spots and gives the team a true fourth outfield type behind Trent Grisham in center field.

Tyler just landed with San Diego on waivers a couple weeks ago. The righty has bounced from the Angels to the Red Sox to the Padres on the wire over the past month, and he figures to land back on waivers in the next few days. He made his big league debut last season, tossing 12 1/3 relief innings over five appearances with six strikeouts and walks apiece. Tyler still has all three options remaining.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins, Padres Discussing Chris Paddack, Taylor Rogers

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7:25pm: Talks between the two sides have also involved Minnesota closer Taylor Rogers, report Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). There are certainly more players than just Paddack and Rogers in discussions, but the clubs are evidently contemplating scenarios that could see either team land immediate big league help.

6:36pm: The Twins and Padres are working on a trade that would send right-hander Chris Paddack to Minnesota, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). San Diego has been kicking the tires on possible Paddack deals in recent days.

Paddack, 26, has spent the past three years in the San Diego rotation. The Padres acquired the Texas native from the Marlins in a 2016 trade that sent closer Fernando Rodney to South Florida. It quickly became apparent that was a heist for San Diego, as Paddack developed into one of the sport’s better pitching prospects not long after.

The Friars carried Paddack on their Opening Day roster in 2019. He looked like a mid-rotation arm in the making as a rookie, working 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball. Paddack punched out a strong 26.9% of batters faced that year while only walking 5.5% of opponents. The 21.5 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages checked in 17th among 130 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched.

Unfortunately, Paddack hasn’t built upon that success in the past two seasons. He pitched to a 4.73 ERA over 12 starts during the truncated 2020 schedule. That looked to be a possible small-sample blip, inflated by the fact that one in every four fly balls he allowed cleared the fences. Yet his ERA jumped again last year, checking in at 5.07 in 108 1/3 frames.

Paddack’s home run rate came back to earth, but he allowed nearly 40% of baserunners to score. That’s more a product of poor sequencing than anything else, and the Twins presumably believe he’ll more closely approximate his 76.4% strand rate of 2019-20 than last season’s mark moving forward. That said, one can’t approximate Paddack’s recent struggles entirely to home run and baserunner luck.

In each of the past two seasons, Paddack’s strikeout rate has dipped relative to the year prior. Last year’s 21.6% mark was a couple points below the league average, although his swinging strike rate has held steady in the 11% range. Perhaps even more concerning, he has allowed hard contact well above the league mark in each of the past two years. Paddack particularly struggled with right-handed batters last season, allowing same-handed opponents to put up a .325/.354/.547 line.

Those factors make him a difficult pitcher to value. He still sports excellent control, throws in the mid-90s, and owns an excellent changeup. Yet he’s also prone to a lot of hard contact and has seen his results go downhill over the past couple years. Moreover, he ended last season on the injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. That hasn’t impacted him this spring, but it’s at least of moderate concern to any team considering acquiring him.

Paddack and the Padres agreed to a $2.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll be controllable via that process through 2024. There’s a case for the Padres to hold onto him in hopes of a bounceback, but it’s not clear there’s room for him in the rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, the recently-acquired Sean Manaea and Nick Martínez (whom they signed to a four-year deal this offseason) look like the season-opening starting five. Mike Clevinger will begin the year on the IL but will have a rotation spot whenever he returns. The Friars also have Ryan Weathers, one-time top prospect MacKenzie Gore and Reiss Knehr as depth options for any inevitable injury concerns.

Given that plethora of arms, the Friars have contemplated dealing from both their rotation depth. San Diego has reportedly been looking to upgrade in the corner outfield, but Rogers’ inclusion in talks with the Twins demonstrates the possibility for upgrades on other areas of the roster.

Rogers, 31, has emerged as one of the sport’s better late-inning arms. He posted an ERA between 2.61 and 3.07 in each season between 2017-19, tossing 55+ innings in all three years. The southpaw allowed a bit more than four runs per nine in the shortened 2020 season, but his underlying numbers remained excellent and he returned to form last year.

In 2021, the University of Kentucky product worked to a 3.35 mark over 40 1/3 innings. He punched out a career-high 35.5% of batters faced while walking only 4.8% of opponents, averaging a personal-best 95.5 MPH on his heater. Among relievers with 40+ frames, only Liam Hendriks, Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Craig Kimbrel had a bigger strikeout/walk rate differential than Rogers’ 30.7 point gap.

With the Twins reeling towards a last-place finish, Rogers was a frequently-mentioned trade target leading up to the summer trade deadline. He sprained the middle finger on his pitching hand in late July, though, essentially killing any chance of a midseason deal. That proved a season-ending malady.

The Twins have been aggressive this offseason in an attempt to immediately bounce back. There’s not been much indication Rogers was available in trade this winter, yet he’s entering his final year of club control. He’ll play the 2022 campaign on a $7.3MM salary before hitting the open market, where he’s on track to be one of the top relievers available.

That dwindling window of control could increase Minnesota’ comfort parting with Rogers, particularly if the deal allows them to address a rotation that looks like the club’s weak point. The Twins have added Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to join Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the starting five.

Both Bundy and Archer are coming off miserable 2021 seasons tarnished by injury. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has expressed confidence in the internal options, particularly with highly-regarded prospect Josh Winder on hand as the likely first call in the event of injury. Still, there’s enough uncertainty that adding to that group if the opportunity presented itself always seemed likely. There’s no guarantee a deal will get across the finish line, but the Twins pursuit of Paddack reflects they’re not averse to picking up another arm.

Brewers Acquire Victor Caratini From Padres

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The Brewers fortified their catching situation this afternoon, announcing the acquisition of Víctor Caratini and cash considerations from the Padres. San Diego picks up fellow catcher Brett Sullivan and outfield prospect Korry Howell in return. It’s a quick strike for Milwaukee to find a #2 backstop in the wake of an 80-game suspension to presumptive #2 Pedro Severino, who tested positive for the banned substance Clomiphene this week.

Caratini spent one season in San Diego after coming over from the Cubs alongside Yu Darvish last offseason. He functioned as Darvish’s personal catcher, lining up behind the dish in 29 of the righty’s 30 starts. The switch-hitting backstop also saw more action than anticipated in non-Darvish outings, as expected starter Austin Nola was limited to 56 games by injuries.

Ultimately, Caratini tallied a personal-high 356 plate appearances during his lone season in San Diego. He hit .227/.309/.323 with seven home runs, a fair bit worse than the .250/.327/.372 line he’d put up in the prior four seasons as a reserve option in Chicago. Last season’s 9.8% walk percentage and 23% strikeout rate were both in line with his respective career marks, but he managed just seven homers and nine doubles en route to a subpar .096 ISO (slugging minus batting average).

Caratini’s average exit velocity and hard contact rate were surprisingly strong, but he negated much of his extra-base potential by hitting the ball on the ground more than half the time. Even if he can’t add more offensive impact, he should offer some decent at-bats off the bench for skipper Craig Counsell. Caratini has been better from the right side of the dish over the course of his career, a trait that pairs well with lefty-hitting #1 catcher Omar Narváez.

The Caratini acquisition is clearly tied to Severino’s suspension, which had left Milwaukee without an obvious backup catcher. The Brewers are set to welcome Severino back in the second half of the year, but Caratini could have a path to securing the job with a strong start to the season. He’s making $2MM after avoiding arbitration this offseason, and he’ll be controllable once more through that process before hitting free agency after 2023.

From the Padres perspective, the trade would appear to be a vote of confidence in out-of-options backstop Jorge Alfaro. San Diego acquired Alfaro, with whom president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is quite familiar from their time in the Rangers organization, in a small trade with the Marlins before last November’s tender deadline. It was a mere cash transaction, but that the Friars affirmatively struck to add Alfaro rather than let Miami non-tender him into free agency (which it had become apparent the Fish were set to do) suggested the Friars had hopes of Alfaro breaking camp.

It would appear he’s in line to do just that after a fantastic showing in Spring Training. Alfaro had ten hits, including four homers, in 24 at-bats in Cactus League play. That’s far less meaningful than his more modest .258/.309/.399 career regular season showing, but Alfaro is a former top prospect whom many evaluators had projected as a possible regular thanks to his power at the plate and strong throwing arm. He’ll presumably make the club as Nola’s backup, with top prospect Luis Campusano also on the verge of the big leagues.

Sullivan, too, could find himself in that mix. The 28-year-old has never played in the majors, but he landed a major league deal with the Brewers this winter after qualifying for minor league free agency. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes that he’s a contact-oriented hitter who could be a depth option in the short-term, albeit without much power or a great arm.

The lefty-hitting Sullivan is only coming off a .223/.302/.375 line in Triple-A. The Brewers obviously preferred to go externally rather than turn the backup catching job over to him to start the season. Yet the fact that both Milwaukee and San Diego were willing to commit him a 40-man roster spot suggests he’s of appeal to multiple clubs.

Howell, meanwhile, is a former 12th-round selection out of an Iowa junior college. Baseball America slotted the right-handed hitting outfielder 29th in the Milwaukee farm system this offseason, praising his athleticism and plate discipline but noting concerns about his bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out in his minor league numbers, as Howell punched out in 28.9% of his trips to the plate in High-A last season. That mark jumped to 39.6% upon a late-season promotion to Double-A. Even with the strikeouts, Howell was particularly productive at the former stop, though. He hit 12 homers and stole 20 bases in 69 games while walking at a strong 11.1% clip, showcasing the combination of athleticism and patience BA noted.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported the Padres were trading Caratini to the Brewers for a pair of minor leaguers. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the return of Sullivan and Howell.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Acquire Sean Manaea

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The Athletics have traded Sean Manaea to the Padres, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Earlier today, Andy Martino of SNY had tweeted that Oakland had resumed active conversations about Manaea. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres will be sending two prospects to Oakland in return. Per Feinsand, the full trade is Sean Manaea and Aaron Holiday for Eruibiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez.

A Manaea trade has seemed inevitable for quite some time now. It was reported prior to the lockout that the A’s were planning on moving just about any player with significant salary and dwindling team control. Once the lockout ended, they made good on those predictions, trading Chris Bassitt to the Mets, Matt Olson to the Braves and Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. Since Manaea is heading into free agency at the end of this season and is making $9.75MM this year, he was the logical choice as the next guy packing up his bag. He will now head to San Diego, reuniting with manager Bob Melvin, who was another casualty of the Oakland penny-pinching, as the club allowed him to head to the Padres in a salary-dumping move.

The 30-year-old lefty made his MLB debut in 2016 and immediately established himself with a quality season. In 144 2/3 innings, he put up an ERA of 3.86, along with a 20.9% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He continued to pitch well over the 2017 and 2018 seasons before being stalled by shoulder surgery in September of 2018. That kept him out of action for around a year, as he returned late in 2019. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he seemed to be back to his old self, throwing 54 innings with an ERA of 4.50. In 2021, he logged another 179 1/3 innings with a 3.91 ERA, cranking his strikeout rate up to 25.7% in the process, a career high for a full season.

For the Padres, this furthers bolsters what was already a very strong rotation that includes Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Nick Martinez and Chris Paddack, along with up-and-coming options like Reiss Knehr, Ryan Weathers or MacKenzie Gore. Just a few days ago, it was reported that the Padres were considering trading from that rotation depth in order to improve their outfield picture. The addition of Manaea seems to only increase the odds of such a deal coming together.

Their projected outfield currently consists of Trent Grisham in center and Wil Myers in right, with left field being manned by some combination of Jurickson Profar and Matt Beaty. There’s certainly room for improvement over that group, especially for a team hoping to compete with the Dodgers and Giants in the AL West, two teams who easily surpassed the 100-win plateau last year. Recent reports had indicated the club had spoken to the Pirates about a Bryan Reynolds trade, though the last word on that front was that the asking price for Reynolds was “prohibitive.”

The Padres were one of two teams to have paid the luxury tax in 2021, along with the Dodgers. That means they would be subject to escalating penalties if they were to pay the tax again this year. The new CBA bumped up the lowest tax line from $210MM to $230MM, which gave the Padres a bit of breathing space, as their luxury tax number has been between those two numbers for most of the offseason. Since the signing of that new CBA and the end of the lockout, they have been fairly quiet, apart from their acquisition of Luke Voit. With the acquisition of Manaea, their luxury tax number is now just over the line at $233MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Perhaps they are willing to pay the tax yet again, or further trade could allow them to limbo back under the line. Rumors have swirled for years about their attempts to move Eric Hosmer and the four years and $59MM remaining on his deal. Just a few days ago, they were apparently discussing such a deal with the Mets, though those talks have apparently stalled.

For the Athletics, their fire sale has reduced their 2021 payroll to around $50MM in actual dollars, per Roster Resource. They haven’t had a number that low since 2008, leaving aside the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) That number could potentially drop even lower if the club lines up a deal on Frankie Montas or Ramon Laureano, though they could also add in a veteran on a modest short-term deal, like those they gave to Stephen Vogt and Jed Lowrie.

The rotation in Oakland won’t just be lacking Bassitt and Manaea, as James Kaprielian and Brent Honeywell Jr. are likely to begin the season on the IL. Montas will be at the front of the group if he’s still around, with Cole Irvin, Daulton Jefferies, Paul Blackburn, Adam Oller and Zach Logue among the options to take the spots  behind him.

One of today’s acquisitions, Adrian Martinez, is an option to serve as rotation depth immediately, as he is on the 40-man roster and made it up to the highest levels of the minors last year. In 80 2/3 Double-A innings, he put up a 2.34 ERA along with a 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He struggled a bit in his first taste of Triple-A, throwing 44 1/3 innings with his ERA jumping up to 5.28, along with a deflated strikeout rate of 19.9% and 8.7% walk rate. He’s just 25 years old and has options, meaning he’s likely ticketed for further time in Triple-A.

The other piece of their return will be more of a long-term play, as Angeles is just 19 years old. Last year, he split his time between A-ball and High-A, while lining up at second base, third base and shortstop. In 105 games, his combined slash line was .329/.392/.445, for a wRC+ of 125, along with 19 stolen bases. Although the A’s will need to be patient given his age, he might be the real “get” for Oakland, as he was San Diego’s #12 prospect at MLB Pipeline before the deal, with Martinez coming in at #26.

Alongside Manaea, the Padres are also adding some bullpen depth with the acquisition of Holiday. The 21-year-old was just selected by the A’s last year, in the 13th round of the 2021 draft. He only has 5 2/3 innings of professional experience under his belt at this point, all of that coming in the Complex League last year. Despite that limited resume, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports relays that he was hitting over 100mph on the radar gun this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Abrams, Paddack, Weathers

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Mike Clevinger is battling soreness in his right knee and is expected to begin the season on the 10-day injured list, Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune).  Clevinger has made only one appearance this spring, and lasted only 1 2/3 innings.

The IL placement “allows us to kind of smooth things out and slow it down some,” Melvin said.  “We don’t feel like it’s a significant thing, but it actually might be a little bit of a blessing because it did feel like we were kind of rushing him a little bit.”

It has already been a lengthy absence from a big league mound for Clevinger, who underwent Tommy John surgery in November 2020 and subsequently missed all of last season.  The Padres were already planning to ease him back into action on limited innings, pairing Clevinger with another pitcher in piggyback fashion.  It seems likely that the team might still pursue this strategy when Clevinger does return, though the extra recovery time could allow Clevinger to start a bit deeper into games.

San Diego has enough of a pitching surplus to withstand Clevinger’s absence, particularly after Sean Manaea was acquired from the A’s earlier today.  However, rumors continue to swirl about the possibility that the Friars could trade from their pitching depth to facilitate another deal, and the Padres reportedly came close on a four-player swap with the Mets yesterday that would’ve seen Eric Hosmer, Chris Paddack, and Emilio Pagan all sent to New York for Dominic Smith.

That trade would’ve been largely about getting luxury tax relief from Hosmer’s contract, though the Padres have also pursued other big-ticket moves to add talent.  San Diego has long been rumored to have interest in the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Padres offered two arms in Paddack and Ryan Weathers in exchange for the All-Star outfielder.  That wasn’t enough for the Pirates, as talks were scuttled when Pittsburgh additionally wanted top prospect C.J. Abrams added to the trade package.

While Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been willing to deal notable prospects in the past, he has mostly resisted trading any of the true upper-tier names from his farm system.  As a consensus top-15 prospect in baseball, Abrams fits that billing, even coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season.  The Pirates are known to be seeking a major return in exchange for Reynolds, so while Abrams is a justifiable ask for a player of Reynolds’ proven ability, it remains to be seen if the Padres (or any team) would be willing to trade away a blue-chip minor league talent.

In fact, the door remains open on Abrams contributing to the Padres’ own big league roster as early as Opening Day.  Abrams has been hitting well this spring, and with Fernando Tatis Jr. set to miss as much as the first three months of the season, there is a vacancy at Abrams’ natural shortstop position.  Abrams has also been playing at second base, and Melvin has suggested that he could get some reps in the outfield as well, acting as some center field depth behind Trent Grisham.

It would be an aggressive promotion considering that Abrams has only played 42 games of Double-A ball, and has never played at Triple-A.  That said, the Padres didn’t shy away from putting Tatis on their Opening Day roster in 2019, and that was even before the new Collective Bargaining Agreement introduced the “Prospect Promotion Incentive,” which allows teams to potentially gain an extra draft pick if a top prospect spends an entire season on the active roster and has a high finish in awards balloting.

Returning to the pitching rumor mill, Paddack drew some attention from New York’s other team last month, when the Yankees and Padres were discussing Luke Voit in trade talks.  SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Yankees initially wanted Paddack in return for Voit, before finally settling on a less-experienced hurler in prospect Justin Lange.

Wade LeBlanc Announces Retirement

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Left-hander Wade LeBlanc has decided to retire, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The 37-year-old LeBlanc is hanging up his cleats after pitching in parts of 13 Major League seasons with nine different teams, as well as a stint in Japan with the Saitama Seibu Lions in 2015.

Originally a second-round pick for the Padres in the 2006 draft, LeBlanc has pitched in a number of different roles over his long career.  The southpaw has seen work as a full-time starter, full-time reliever, and most often a little bit of both, with teams usually eyeing LeBlanc in various types of swingman or long relief roles.  Interestingly, despite the “veteran lefty” mold, LeBlanc didn’t see much specialist work since left-handed batters actually did more damage (.843 OPS) against him than right-handed batters (.763 OPS).

Never a big strikeout pitcher or a high-velocity arm, LeBlanc relied more on off-speed pitches than his fastball, and got out by generating soft contact.  When LeBlanc was getting that weak contact and keeping the ball in the park, he was quite effective, though home runs became an increasing problem in recent years.

Of LeBlanc’s nine MLB teams, his longest stints came with the Mariners (333 1/3 IP), Padres (293 1/3 IP), and Marlins (117 1/3 IP).  He most recently saw action with the Cardinals, signing a contract in June when the Cards were besieged with pitching injuries.

LeBlanc helped stabilize things by posting a 3.61 ERA over his 42 1/3 innings in a St. Louis uniform, helping the team tread water until eventually going on a major hot streak down the stretch.  Unfortunately, LeBlanc wasn’t there to enjoy that success, as he was sidelined with an elbow injury and was reportedly set to undergo some type of medical procedure to address his elbow in September.

LeBlanc will retire with a 4.54 career ERA over 931 1/3 Major League innings.  We at MLBTR congratulate LeBlanc on an excellent career and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Padres, Mets Reportedly Stalled On Hosmer Trade Talks

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4:57PM: Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that talks may have stalled entirely after the two sides “hit a snag” in negotiations.  Sherman is even more blunt, saying the proposed trade “is not going to happen.”

8:50 AM: A potential deal between the two sides would be a little more complex than initially presumed. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly need to eat a fair amount of the money owed to Hosmer in order to make this deal work. Specifically, the Padres would cover roughly $30MM or more of Hosmer’s deal, bringing Hosmer’s per annum down to $6-7MM per year, per Sherman.

The Mets would also get reliever Emilio Pagan in the deal. Pagan has at times looked like a premier bullpen arm during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s, and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to close games if he stays in San Diego, whereas in New York he would slot into a fairly deep collection of right-handed setup arms that includes Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Miguel Castro, Trevor May, and Seth Lugo.

7:55 AM: The Mets have spent the offseason pushing full-bore towards fielding a competitive squad, but the fragility of an offseason win became clear yesterday with the news of ace Jacob deGrom being shut down for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.

In fact, they just so happen to have been in conversation with the Padres for the past couple of weeks about different trade scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to help plug the leak. Per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal, and others, a potential deal could center around Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack heading to the Mets, while Dominic Smith would go to San Diego.

The Padres have been trying to move off of Hosmer’s money for quite some time now, and the freewheeling Mets may now have a big enough need in the rotation to consider taking him back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, as Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause turns into full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he is traded, Hosmer’s contract has a clause that says he cannot be traded twice without his consent, so he will essentially get his no-trade clause by the end of the 2022 campaign regardless for whom he plays.

With $59MM over four years left on his deal, Hosmer does not have positive trade value – not after fWAR totals of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3, and -0.1 over the past four seasons. Entering his age-32 season, one doesn’t expect Hosmer to flourish overnight. Furthermore, the Mets absolutely have no need for him, not with Pete Alonso on the roster.

Acquiring Hosmer would mean pushing the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with a payroll nearing $300MM, notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets might be willing to take him if they can reinforce their rotation at the same time, however.

Enter Paddack. The 26-year-old has three years of team control remaining and significant upside. He’s far from a sure thing, however. His numbers declined for the third consecutive season last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA across 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL might be the cause of the decline, but that’s not necessarily a situation that has totally resolved itself. Paddack would, therefore, be an option to slide into deGrom’s rotation spot, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.

In the short term, he might not even be an upgrade over Tylor Megill, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP over 18 starts covering 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first taste of big league action. The Mets could certainly begin the season with Megill in the rotation and see how things go from there.

For the Padres part, their motivation would mostly be to shed Hosmer’s contract. They have enough rotation depth, theoretically, to weather the loss of Paddack, and in Smith, they’d be getting back a comparable bat that’s cheaper, more versatile, and with more theoretical upside than Hosmer. He’s also under team control for two more seasons beyond 2022, though those seasons aren’t guaranteed, should he continue to struggle at the dish.

For the first part of his career, the story on Smith was that he needed at-bats, but his natural position of first base was spoken for, so his ceiling was no more than that of a bit player. Then the designated hitter came to the NL in 2020, Smith starting taking flyballs in left field, and the offensive promise came to fruition with a .316/.377/.616 line over 199 plate appearances during the shortened campaign.

He again saw fairly stable playing time in 2021, but the numbers cratered to an 86 wRC+ by way of a  .244/.304/.363 line across  494 plate appearances , more than doubling his previous career-high in that regard. The Padres do need a left fielder, and Smith could step right in at first base were this deal to go down. Still, for San Diego, this deal is mostly about moving off of Hosmer. There are options out there for left field – including former Met Michael Conforto – but Smith would certainly be worth rostering if acquiring him meant removing Hosmer from the payroll.

Padres, Pirates Have Discussed Bryan Reynolds Trade

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9:55pm: The Padres currently consider the Pirates asking price on Reynolds to be “prohibitive,” writes Dennis Lin of the Athletic. That’s hardly a surprise, given the reported lofty asks the Bucs have sought in Reynolds talks with other teams.

9:21am: The Padres and Pirates have had recent trade discussions surrounding All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Young pitchers Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers have both been mentioned as possible pieces going back to Pittsburgh, he adds.

It’s important to make a few key distinctions here. First and foremost, talks between the two parties don’t necessarily suggest that a deal is nigh — nor do they indicate that Pittsburgh is actively seeking to trade Reynolds. The Pirates have fielded Reynolds interest from more than a half-dozen teams since last summer alone, and he remains in camp with Pittsburgh.

Secondly, Paddack and Weathers are surely just two of a wide range of names that have been discussed. Even if both are of interest to the Bucs, additional pieces would assuredly need to be added. Paddack, for instance, is controlled for less time than Reynolds (three years to Reynolds’ four years) and is coming off a poor 2021 season that ended with an elbow injury. Weathers, meanwhile, is a former top-10 draft pick and top-100 prospect, but he was knocked around for a 5.32 ERA through 94 2/3 innings during last year’s rookie campaign. He’s controllable for another five years, at least.

As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets, San Diego’s interest in Reynolds is not a new revelation. However, if they are indeed discussing specific players that could go back to Pittsburgh, that’d mark a sign of progression over prior, more preliminary talks, Acee adds.

Reports last night indicated that the Padres are open to trading from both their starting pitching and catching surpluses in order to address their needs in the outfield. Padres skipper Bob Melvin just yesterday acknowledged that the lack of outfield depth is “a concern.” San Diego has been considering the possibility of playing top shortstop prospect CJ Abrams in the outfield early this season.

At the moment, the Padres have Trent Grisham and Wil Myers locked into outfield slots, but their left field situation is particularly dire. Newly acquired first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty could see significant time there despite grading out as a poor defender. Switch-hitting utilityman Jurickson Profar is the other leading leading candidate, but he’s coming off a miserable 2021 season at the plate and has spent the bulk of his career playing the infield.

Reynolds is about as high-profile a target that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could explore. That’s par for the course for Preller, who typically explores any and all opportunities to acquire a marquee player, however slim the chances may be. Preller and Pittsburgh counterpart Ben Cherington have lined up on a couple of trades over the past 13 months or so, however, as Pittsburgh traded both Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier to San Diego in separate deals. As such, it’s likely that Paddack, Weathers and quite a few other Padres youngsters have already been discussed in previous trade talks between the two sides. Those prior talks could serve as groundwork to an extent, but evaluations and opinions of young players can change rapidly over the course of even just a few months’ time.

Reynolds has also been aggressively pursued by the Marlins, dating back to last year’s trade deadline. Other teams known to have interest in the switch-hitting 27-year-old include the Mariners, Yankees, Braves and Brewers, among others. It’s easy to see why when looking at Reynolds’ career .290/.368/.490 batting line and, in particular, last year’s .302/.390/.522 output. Reynolds is controllable all the way through the 2025 season, though, and between his elite performance and that long-term control, the asking price on him figures to be sky-high.

For instance, Craig Mish and Barry Jacksonn of the Miami Herald recently reported that the Pirates sought both shortstop Kahlil Watson and right-hander Max Meyer in talks with the Fish. Both recent first-rounders rank among the sport’s top-50 overall prospects. In past trade talks with the Mariners, the Bucs targeted uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez as the starting point and sought additional pieces beyond him, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With regard to the Padres, those prior asks on Reynolds underscore that Paddack and Weathers would likely be seen as secondary pieces, at best.

As for the Padres’ general outfield search, if they’re not able to strike up an agreement with the Pirates regarding Reynolds, there’s no shortage of alternative paths for them to explore. The Twins are known to be seeking rotation help and have plenty of outfielders — both in terms of established players (Max Kepler) and young, MLB-ready options with upside (Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff). The Yankees could use additional options on the mound and behind the plate, and they have a crowded outfield mix (which includes former Padres trade target Joey Gallo). The Angels are deep in young outfielders (e.g. Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh) and are always on the hunt for rotation help. The Mariners, similarly, could use another starter and have a deep collection of outfield talent on the 40-man roster. Preller could also look to Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays, though Mullins in particular is a Reynolds-esque long shot to be moved.

Padres Open To Trading From Rotation, Catching Depth

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With a little over a week until Opening Day, the Padres still have a highly uncertain outfield mix. Michael Conforto and Brett Gardner remain available in free agency, but the Friars are an estimated $6MM shy of the $230MM base luxury tax threshold and are reportedly reluctant to exceed that figure.

If they’re not content with their internal outfield options, a trade may be the better way for the front office to go. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are willing to entertain offers on some of their catchers or starting pitchers. Dealing from their depth in either area wouldn’t necessarily mean the Padres bring back a big league caliber outfielder in return, but it seems the front office is at least open to exploring those possibilities.

Neither development comes as a surprise. During the lockout, MLBTR noted the potential for San Diego to entertain trades from both the catching group and rotation depth. The Padres currently have four catchers on the 40-man roster, all of whom have reasonable claims to a spot on the MLB club.

Austin Nola is the presumptive starter. Luis Campusano is a top prospect who doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 in Triple-A. Víctor Caratini is coming off a rough season, but he’s had success in the past and works well with Yu Darvish. Jorge Alfaro would appear to be fourth on the depth chart, but San Diego acquired him from the Marlins and he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning the Padres need to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The Friars presumably won’t carry all four on the Opening Day roster, even with rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players in the early going, so it’s natural they’d be open to dealing from that group.

On the pitching side of the equation, San Diego is set to open the year with a starting group of Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Nick Martínez. That wouldn’t leave spots for any of Chris Paddack, Reiss Knehr or former top prospects Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore. All four of those pitchers have options remaining, and the Friars could certainly opt to stockpile depth after seeing a series of rotation injuries contribute to a second-half collapse last year. Lin doesn’t specify any names whom the Padres are particularly inclined to move, to be clear. Yet as with the catching surplus, there may at least be enough depth for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to consider a move — particularly if one of those arms can bring back MLB-ready outfield help.

Trent Grisham is locked in as the center fielder, with Will Myers set to handle right field on most days. San Diego saw Tommy Pham depart in free agency, leaving Jurickson Profar and the newly-acquired Matt Beaty among the favorites for playing time in left. That’s not a great group of corner players for a hopeful contender, and the Pads have shopped both Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer throughout the offseason. Lin writes they’re still exploring possible Hosmer deals, although moving much of the remaining four years and $59MM on his deal has proven too tough a task so far. It’d probably be easier to move Myers, but that’d just further thin the corner outfield group.

Aside from Myers, Profar, Beaty and Grisham, the Padres don’t really have outfield options on the 40-man roster. Lin writes that manager Bob Melvin has already ruled out the possibility of moving second baseman Jake Cronenworth off the position, something the organization considered but never tried last offseason. Alfaro has some experience in left field but shouldn’t be more than an emergency option there. Trayce Thompson and Nomar Mazara are in camp as non-roster invitees and could both get big league looks, but neither is necessarily an upgrade over Profar and Beaty.

More interesting than the possibility of any of those veterans getting a spot is the chance for top prospect CJ Abrams to break camp with the club. A consensus top 15 prospect, Abrams only has 42 games of Double-A experience. He impressed there last year, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases, but his season was cut short when he fractured his left tibia in late June. That kept him from seeing his first Triple-A action.

Nevertheless, both Lin and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune have written this week the organization is considering carrying the 21-year-old on the MLB roster. That’s certainly not a given, as both Lin and Acee hear that some with the Padres believe he’d benefit from more time in the minors. Not only does he have limited experience against high level pitching, Abrams has never played a professional inning outside of the middle infield.

Given his athleticism — evaluators credit him with top-of-the-scale speed — there’s a belief he could handle all three outfield spots. Melvin acknowledged this afternoon he might give Abrams some consideration behind Grisham in center field (Acee link). Keeping him in the majors would allow San Diego some cover behind Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield while Fernando Tatís Jr. is on the injured list. Yet there’d certainly be risk in putting Abrams into a major league outfield right out of the gate, even in a utility capacity, and there’s an argument to be made for the Friars starting him at Triple-A El Paso. It’ll be known soon enough what route Preller, Melvin and the rest of the San Diego brass choose to take with the Opening Day roster.

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