Dinelson Lamet will not be ready to join the opening day rotation, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). On the plus side, he will get his first Cactus League start on Wednesday. That should get him on track to join the rotation at some point in April. The Padres have plenty of depth to work around Lamet’s absence, especially because of the delayed Triple-A season. In fact, slow-playing Lamet’s return not only benefits the right-hander, but it opens an opportunity for Adrian Morejon to get a start or two before the Triple-A season begins. Elsewhere around the game…
Padres Rumors
Latest On Austin Nola
- Like Realmuto, Padres catcher Austin Nola is recovering from a broken digit (in his case, a fractured left middle finger). Nola will test his ability to grip a bat in the next couple days, says manager Jayce Tingler, who expressed some optimism the backstop could be ready for Opening Day (via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). It seems the more likely outcome is a brief injured list stint, as Acee notes the typical timeline for a return from similar injuries is four-to-six weeks. Nola suffered his break March 13, a little less than three weeks before the season opener. If the 31-year-old indeed hits the IL, the Padres would open with a Víctor Caratini/Luis Campusano catching tandem.
MLBTR Polls: Padres Versus Blue Jays Bullpen Showdown
The Toronto Blue Jays uncharacteristically spent much of the offseason in the spotlight, exhausting their Rolodex to add talent in free agency. As a result, their lineup, to borrow a phrase, is in the best shape of its life. Yet, doubts about their status as contenders prevail, largely because of a perceived lack of high-end firepower in the rotation. They brought Robbie Ray back, but otherwise added only Steven Matz coming off a disastrous season in New York. Though Matz has impressed so far, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the rotation anxiety is warranted. Arguably, however, the bullpen poses a greater threat to the Jays as they attempt to unseat the Rays and Yankees atop the American League East.
GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.
Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.
Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).
From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.
On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.
Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.
Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.
Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.
On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.
Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.
Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do – what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.
Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?
(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)
Drew Pomeranz Sidelined Due To Forearm Tightness
Drew Pomeranz has been sidelined due to tightness in his left forearm, but testing revealed no structural problems. (MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell was among those to report the news.) The Padres southpaw hasn’t pitched since March 9 but the team is hoping Pomeranz can return to action in the coming week. Pomeranz has dealt with his share of injury problems in the past — including a 10-day IL stint due to a shoulder strain last season — but not the sort of forearm/elbow issues that can sometimes be an ominous precursor to Tommy John surgery.
Fortunately, it seems as though Pomeranz and the Padres have avoided the worst, though it isn’t yet known if Pomeranz’s absence from spring games could require some extra ramp-up time via an injured-list stint at the beginning of the season. The left-hander’s first season in San Diego was a dominant one, as Pomeranz posted a 1.45 ERA/3.11 SIERA and a whopping 39.7K% over 18 2/3 innings in the regular season, and then four scoreless innings over five games during San Diego’s postseason run.
Padres Notes: Lamet, Johnson, Roster Decisions
Padres righty Dinelson Lamet pitched multiple innings for the first time this spring Thursday, tweets A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com, albeit in a simulated-game setting. Lamet, whose 2020 season was truncated by a biceps injury that required a platelet-rich plasma injection in October, has yet to pitch in an actual Cactus League game since Spring Training began. Lamet tossed 17 innings in the first half of that simulated setup, and he returned from his downtime to toss another dozen pitches in the second “inning,” Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.
A concrete timeline for Lamet hasn’t been provided to this point, but he’s obviously a bit behind the rest of the Padres’ starters. Assuming he needs some additional time to ramp up early in the season, the Friars can still lean on Chris Paddack and Adrian Morejon to round out the rotation behind Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. The 28-year-old Lamet broke out with a huge showing in a dozen starts last year, logging a 2.09 ERA/3.16 SIERA with an elite 34.8 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 7.5 percent walk rate.
More on the Padres…
- Right-hander Pierce Johnson, who exited Tuesday’s Cactus League game early, has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 groin strain, tweets Acee. He’ll rest for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, though the club hopes that he can get in a couple more games by the end of camp, so it doesn’t sound like the current expectation is for him to miss any time during the regular season. Johnson, 29, returned to the Majors last season after a strong showing in Japan in 2019 and thrived in the San Diego bullpen. Through 20 innings of relief, the righty posted a 2.70 ERA with a gaudy 33.8 percent strikeout rate, though his 11.3 percent walk rate was also noticeably higher than the league average. He’s signed for $2MM in 2021, and at season’s end the Padres will decide on a $3MM club option or $1MM buyout.
- Austin Nola’s fractured finger looks to have opened the door for Luis Campusano to make the Opening Day club, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic in his latest roster projection for the Friars. San Diego is also “reluctant” to give up on Jorge Mateo’s defensive versatility and speed, Lin notes, and the fact that the out-of-options Mateo is also hitting well thus far (.355/.462/.516 in 39 PAs) likely tickets him for a bench spot as well. The bullpen could have some tougher decisions as well, given the lack of minor league options for Dan Altavilla and Taylor Williams — both of whom have struggled to this point.
Padres A.J. Preller On The Winter Moves
There was a point in the offseason when Padres’ GM A.J. Preller almost acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove on the same day, he said on Jon Heyman and Tony Gwynn Jr.’s Big Time Baseball podcast. Ultimately, it took a span of roughly three weeks to get all three arms dressed in brown, white, and gold. The deals took some finagling, as at one point, at least one of the players who ultimately went to Tampa Bay was slated for both the Snell and Darvish deals. Once the Snell deal went through, Preller and the Cubs had to renegotiate and swap in new names. Preller did not say which of the Rays’ new prospects was also coveted by the Cubs. But he did touch on their pursuit of one-time free agent and current Los Angeles Dodger Trevor Bauer. Preller and the Padres felt Bauer was going to take his time making a decision, and they didn’t want to be left holding the bag, so to speak, if he chose to go elsewhere. The Padres executed their trade plans instead, completing the most dramatic winters in recent memory. Despite the myriad additions, the Padres will have room for an in-season addition, should they feel the need, noted Preller. More on the Cubs…
Jorge Mateo On Track To Earn Roster Spot
- Outfielder/infielder Jorge Mateo is in good position to earn a roster spot with the Padres, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. Mateo, who’s competing against Brian O’Grady and Jorge Ona for a bench role, joined the Padres in a trade with the Athletics last June and went on to make his major league debut. The former top 100 prospect hit a weak .154/.185/.269 without a home run during that stretch, however, and with no minor league options remaining, it could be a make-or-break spring training if he’s going to stick with the Padres.
Austin Nola Fractures Finger
Padres catcher Austin Nola has suffered a fractured left middle finger, manager Jayce Tingler announced to reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Dennis Lin of the Athletic). The injury occurred when Nola was struck with a foul tip during yesterday’s Spring Training contest, Tingler added. A definitive timetable will become clearer in a couple days.
With less than three weeks until Opening Day, it’s possible Nola will have to open the season on the injured list. If that’s the case, San Diego does have a capable replacement. Backup Víctor Caratini has a .250/.327/.372 line over the past four seasons and has generally rated well defensively. The 27-year-old also has a rapport with Yu Darvish, part of the reason he was acquired alongside the reigning NL Cy Young runner-up in this offseason’s blockbuster with the Cubs. Top prospect Luis Campusano is the only other catcher on the Padres’ 40-man roster. Campusano made his MLB debut last year due to the anomalous nature of the 2020 season but has only played one game above the High-A level.
While the Friars are more equipped than most teams to handle an absence to their top catcher, losing Nola for any extended period of time would be a difficult blow. Despite not making his MLB debut until his age-30 season in 2019, Nola has rather incredibly broken out as one of the sport’s most productive backstops over the past two seasons. He has a cumulative .271/.347/.461 slash between the Mariners and Padres, popping 17 home runs in 451 plate appearances while showcasing high-end glovework behind the plate.
Trent Grisham Expected To Miss A Week
- Padres center fielder Trent Grisham left Thursday’s game with a hamstring issue, leading to an evaluation Friday. Manager Jayce Tingler issued a positive update, saying (via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that it’s Grade 1 hamstring sprain that should only keep Grisham out of action for a week. Grisham helped key the Padres’ resurgence in 2020, when he batted .251/.352/.456 with 10 home runs and stolen bases apiece in 252 plate appearances. He may have been even better in center, where he notched seven Defensive Runs Saved and a 7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Trent Grisham Leaves Game With "Slight" Hamstring Strain
- Padres outfielder Trent Grisham left today’s game with what manager Jayce Tingler called “a slight strain in his hamstring.” Grisham didn’t think the injury was terribly serious, but Tingler told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that Grisham will be re-evaluated tomorrow. Grisham enjoyed a breakout season in 2020 that included a Gold Glove, and while the Padres have a lot of depth, they won’t be able to easily cover center field if Grisham’s hamstring lands him on the IL. Jurickson Profar might be the top fill-in choice, as Profar has been getting some work in center field this spring.