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Twins Acquire Brayan Medina To Complete Taylor Rogers Trade

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The Twins have acquired right-handed pitching prospect Brayan Medina from the Padres, per Minnesota’s director of communications and player relations Dustin Morse. Earlier this month, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and a player to be named later, which has now been revealed as Medina.

Born in Venezuela, Medina is just 19 years old. He made 12 starts and 2 relief appearances last year between the Arizona Complex League and the Dominican Summer League. In 33 2/3 innings pitched, he had a 5.88 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate. Last year, Baseball America ranked him the #26 prospect in the Padres’ system.

After going over the first luxury tax line last year, the Padres have seemed reluctant to do so again this year, as paying the tax in consecutive years comes with escalating penalties. Their current CBT number is just under $229MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That gives them only about $1MM of wiggle room before they are over the first CBT line, which is $230MM under the new CBA. As part of the trade with Minnesota, the Twins agreed to pay almost all of Rogers’ salary, helping the Padres limbo under that line. Medina seems to be their reward for doing so, adding an intriguing young arm to their system.

Joe Musgrove Open To In-Season Extension Talks

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Padres starter Joe Musgrove is in his final season of arbitration-eligibility, setting him up to reach free agency for the first time this winter. Despite being just six months from the open market, the right-hander remains open to discussing an extension with the Friars.

Speaking with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Musgrove indicated he told the Padres in Spring Training he’d be willing to negotiate a long-term deal during the season. “I was like, ‘I prefer to not do it (during the season),” Musgrove said. “But if you guys have an enticing offer and it’s something you think I’d be interested in, send it to my agent and we’ll talk about it. We’ll find the right time to do it.’”

It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a hard deadline for extension talks, whether because they believe a self-imposed cutoff maximizes negotiating leverage or merely believe that in-season discussions could divert attention away from their performance. Musgrove, though, is a San Diego-area native who has spoken about his affinity for the city. Given those geographic ties, it’s not surprising he’d be willing to buck the common trend and consider extension figures from the Padres

Acee writes the Padres were not in touch with Musgrove’s camp about a long-term deal over the offseason. Of course, the three-plus month lockout could’ve played a role in that lack of communication, as teams were barred from interacting with players between the start of December and the second week of March. On either end of the lockout, clubs were faced with a frenzy of other activity. That didn’t completely kill the Spring Training extension market, but it’s conceivable it could’ve delayed some talks which might have taken place during a normal winter.

Musgrove is lined up as one of the top pitchers in the upcoming free agent class. Jacob deGrom has maintained he’ll trigger an opt-out clause at the end of the year. Carlos Rodón will have an opt-out opportunity if he pitches 110 innings, while Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and Mike Clevinger will be in-demand arms if they perform this year as they did before undergoing 2020 Tommy John surgeries. Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea are reliable mid-rotation types. Musgrove, though, offers as strong a combination of performance and relative youth as any starter who’d be on the market, as he’ll enter his age-30 campaign in 2023.

Indeed, Musgrove holds his own in comparison to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, two of the top free agent arms of this past offseason. Between 2019-21, Musgrove posted a 3.79 ERA that tied Gausman’s mark and checked in a bit better than Ray’s 3.93. Musgrove has the lowest strikeout rate of that trio (25.4%, compared to 31.1% for Ray and 28.6% for Gausman), but he posted the highest ground-ball rate of the group and tied Gausman for the lowest walk percentage.

If one looks only at 2020-21, Gausman takes a slight edge over the other two hurlers. Ray had the most impressive 2021 campaign. In each window, though, Musgrove’s performance isn’t too dissimilar than that of either Gausman or Ray. The Padres righty will also be a year younger next winter than Gausman is now. It stands to reason Musgrove’s reps at Full Circle Sports Management will look at the respective terms Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Ray (five years, $115MM with an opt-out clause) landed as comparison points in any extension talks.

Of course, there’s some risk that Musgrove gets injured or underperforms in the next few months. To his credit, he hasn’t shown any worrisome signs early in the season. Musgrove has tossed 19 innings over his first three starts, allowing just four runs with 21 strikeouts and a single walk to go along with a 44.7% grounder rate that falls right in line with his career mark.

Jake Arrieta Announces Retirement

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A former Cy Young winner is stepping away from the game. In an appearance on Barstool’s Pardon My Take podcast, Jake Arrieta announced he is set to retire (interview around 56:00 mark). “I haven’t signed the papers, man, but I’m done,” Arrieta said.”It’s time for me to step away from the game. At some point, the uniform goes to somebody else. It’s just my time, really. … Yeah, man, I’m done.”

Arrieta, now 36 years old, retires after a 12-season MLB career. A fifth-round pick of the Orioles out of TCU in 2007, he made it to the majors midway through the 2010 campaign. He spent three-plus seasons in Baltimore, never really clicking despite getting a few opportunities to crack the starting rotation. Arrieta made 69 appearances in black and orange, pitching to a cumulative 5.46 ERA/4.72 FIP. His strikeout and walk numbers improved later in his time with the O’s, but the results never lined up and Baltimore traded him to the Cubs in early July 2013.

That deal — which saw Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop head to the North Siders for starter Scott Feldman and backup catcher Steve Clevenger — proved one of the most consequential trades in recent MLB history. Arrieta had decent results down the stretch with the Cubs, but his peripherals didn’t suggest he was on the verge of a breakout.

Jake Arrieta

That’s exactly what transpired, though. By 2014, Arrieta had emerged as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He tossed 156 2/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball, earning a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. That was an unexpected age-28 breakout, but rather than showing any signs of regression, Arrieta took his game to another height the next season. In 2015, the right-hander tossed a personal-high 229 innings with an incredible 1.77 ERA. He led MLB with four complete games and three shutouts, allowing a league-low 5.9 hits per nine frames.

Arrieta had a very strong first half that year, posting a 2.66 ERA in 121 2/3 innings. Yet it’s the second half of that 2015 season for which he might best be remembered, as he orchestrated one of the most overpowering runs by any pitcher in MLB history. After that year’s All-Star break, Arrieta threw 107 1/3 frames and allowed just nine earned runs (0.75 ERA). Opposing hitters posted a laughable .148/.204/.205 line in just shy of 400 plate appearances during that stretch, as the Cubs won 97 games and earned a postseason berth.

During that year’s Wild Card game, Arrieta continued his run of absolute dominance, tossing an 11-strikeout shutout in that season’s Wild Card game against the Pirates. He wasn’t as excellent during starts in the NLDS or NLCS, but he had launched himself into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. Arrieta won that season’s Cy Young award, and he’d pick up a third consecutive top ten finish the following season.

In 2016, Arrieta worked to a 3.10 ERA in 197 1/3 frames. He again allowed a league-low 6.3 hits per nine, picking up his first All-Star selection in the process. Alongside Jon Lester and a career-best season from Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta played a key role in the Cubs team that snapped their 108-year title drought. Chicago won both of his starts during the seven-game triumph over the Indians, during which he tossed 11 1/3 innings of three-run ball.

Arrieta remained in Chicago for one more season. He never recaptured his otherworldly 2014-15 form, but he still offered mid-rotation production with a 3.53 ERA in 168 1/3 innings. That offseason, he signed a three-year, $75MM guarantee with the Phillies. Arrieta’s first season in Philadelphia was solid, as he allowed just fewer than four earned runs per nine in 31 starts.

The past three seasons proved a struggle, as Arrieta’s velocity had begun trending downwards from its mid-90s peak by 2017. He posted a 4.64 ERA or higher in each of his final trio of campaigns, including a 7.39 mark in 24 starts between the Cubs and Padres last season. Arrieta returned to the place where he’d had the most success last winter, but the Cubs released him in August. He struggled in four starts with the Friars, and San Diego let him go shortly before the regular season wrapped up.

Obviously, Arrieta’s career didn’t end the way he would’ve liked. Yet there’s no question he reached a height few players in the game’s recent history have hit. From 2014-16, only future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw bested Arrieta’s 2.42 ERA among qualified starters. He played a pivotal role on the most successful teams in the past century of Cubs baseball and leaves the game with a Cy Young and a World Series title. Over his 12-year run, he won 115 games, and struck out upwards of 1400 batters in 1612 1/3 innings.

Arrieta retires with a career 3.98 ERA, although that mark is inflated by the struggles he experienced at each end. For a three-to-four year period, he was among the top few pitchers on the planet. MLBTR congratulates him on his excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Partaking In Baseball Activities

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  • Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. has progressed to participating in light on-field baseball activities, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The two-time Silver Slugger award winner simulated taking ground-balls during infield practice before tonight’s game against the Reds, throwing the ball across the diamond to first base. Tatís is still wearing a brace and has yet to progress to fielding or swinging a bat as he rehabs from the mid-March surgery he underwent to repair a fractured scaphoid bone in his left wrist. The Padres initially placed a three-month timetable on his return to the field, though Cassavell writes Tatís recently opined he’s ahead of schedule in his recovery. The organization won’t make any firmer timetable until he begins to swing a bat, which manager Bob Melvin says will be the final baseball activity the team allows him to take. Tatís is on the 60-day injured list and ineligible to return until the first week of June. In all likelihood, he’ll be out for a bit beyond when he’s first eligible to return, but it’s welcome news that he’s progressed to getting some pre-game work in on the field.

Padres’ Austin Adams Shut Down With Forearm Strain

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Padres reliever Austin Adams has a forearm strain and will be shut down from throwing for at least six weeks, manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). He is likely to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection.

It’s a worrisome development, since forearm strains can sometimes be a precursor to Tommy John surgery. Adams will try to avoid going under the knife with a PRP treatment and rehab, but he’s looking at an extended absence in either event. Even if he begins throwing six weeks from now, he’ll need time to build back arm strength and head out on a minor league rehab assignment before returning to the big league bullpen. Given that timetable, the Friars seem likely to place Adams on the 60-day injured list whenever the need for a 40-man roster spot arises.

Adams, 31 next month, was acquired from the Mariners at the 2020 trade deadline in the seven-player deal that also saw Austin Nola head from Seattle to San Diego. On the injured list at the time as he recovered from a September 2019 knee surgery, he only made three appearances that season.

The right-hander was called upon in 65 games last year, though, working 52 2/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball. Adams punched out a very strong 31.5% of batters faced on a 13.3% swinging strike rate, continuing a career-long trend of missing bats in droves. Yet he struggled mightily with his control, walking 14.5% of opponents. He also incredibly hit 24 batters, six more than any other pitcher despite throwing less than a third of the innings of many starters around the game.

After just two appearances this season, Adams landed on the 10-day IL last Thursday. Melvin will rely on offseason acquisitions Taylor Rogers and Luis García, veterans Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen, and starter-turned-reliever Dinelson Lamet as his top high-leverage options. Rookie Steven Wilson and former NPB closer Robert Suárez are among the right-handed options he can turn to in the middle innings.

Rays Acquire Javy Guerra From Padres

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The Rays have acquired right-hander Javy Guerra from the Padres for cash considerations.  Guerra was designated for assignment by San Diego earlier this week.  The Rays moved Shane Baz to the 60-day injured list to create room on the 40-man roster, and Rays broadcaster Neil Solondz tweets that a move will be made to accommodate Guerra on the active roster when he reports.

Guerra has pitched 27 2/3 Major League innings over the last three-plus seasons, including two innings of work in the Padres’ 10-5 win over the Diamondbacks on April 10.  Not to be confused with the other Javy Guerra (a longtime veteran reliever), the Rays’ new Guerra is a former top-100 shortstop prospect who converted to pitching in 2019.  Injuries have hampered Guerra’s progress, and also some roster constrictions — since he is out of options, the Padres weren’t able to send him to the minors without putting him through DFA waivers.

San Diego finally opted to designate Guerra, and given how often the Padres and Rays have linked up on trades in recent years, it probably isn’t surprising that Tampa Bay emerged as a suitor for Guerra’s services.  Guerra’s fastball has routinely sat in the high-90s and even hit the 100mph threshold, so it will be intriguing to see if the Rays’ vaunted pitching development system can harness Guerra’s potential.

Baz underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery on March 21, and was expected to be shut down from throwing for 2-3 weeks.  The move to the 60-day IL will keep Baz out of action until June, though such an absence was probably necessary for ramp-up purposes considering how much of Spring Training Baz missed.  The star prospect made his MLB debut last season, making three starts in the regular season and one more in the playoffs.

Padres Promote MacKenzie Gore, Place Blake Snell On 10-Day IL

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5:45PM: The Padres have officially announced the moves, putting Snell on the 10-day IL (retroactive to April 11) with a left adductor strain.

3:49PM: Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including AJ Cassavell and Kevin Acee) that Snell has been placed on the 10-day IL, and Gore will indeed start Friday’s game.

12:33PM: The Padres are facing some early-season uncertainty in the starting rotation. Left-hander Blake Snell was scratched from what was supposed to be his first start on Sunday after experiencing adductor tightness. Snell hasn’t been placed on the injured list, but it’s expected he’ll need some time on the shelf to recover.

With Snell’s spot in the rotation up again tomorrow night against the Braves, it looks as if MacKenzie Gore will get his first big league look. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweeted Tuesday that Gore had joined the team’s taxi squad, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night the organization expects to soon place Snell on the IL and start Gore in his place.

Gore’s prospect stock has fluctuated considerably in recent seasons. The third overall pick in 2017, he carved up low minors hitters over his first two professional campaigns. In the process, Gore emerged as a potentially elite young talent. Heading into the 2020 season, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and The Athletic slotted Gore as the sport’s top pitching prospect. All three outlets ranked him among the top six minor league talents overall.

Having reached Double-A late in 2019, Gore looked as if he could make his MLB debut at some point that season. The pandemic wound up necessitating a shorter schedule and a lack of minor league play, however, and Gore spent the year at the alternate training site. Reports emerged that he’d gotten out of whack mechanically, with Baseball America writing over the 2020-21 offseason there were concerns about both his control and a velocity dip.

Those red flags persisted last year, as Gore walked an alarming 12.5% of opponents against a dramatically reduced 18.8% strikeout rate in six Triple-A starts. The Padres reassigned him to their Arizona complex for some lower-pressure work to get back on track, and he returned to an affiliate late in the season with a pair of Double-A starts. He walked another eight batters in nine innings but also punched out 16.

There’s no question Gore’s inconsistent past couple seasons have dealt some kind of hit to his prospect stock. He’s no longer a consensus top ten minor leaguer, nor has he reached the majors as quickly as it had once seemed he would. Yet Gore only turned 23 years old in February and is only two years removed from being perhaps the best pitcher in the minors. He’s certainly still a legitimate prospect, one whom Keith Law of the Athletic slotted #59 overall this offseason.

Law wrote that each of Gore’s fastball, changeup and slider are still plus pitches and that he’s athletic enough to yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm if he finds more mechanical consistency. BA slotted the southpaw fourth in the San Diego system this winter, praising his high-octane repertoire and noting that his “misses off the plate were much smaller” late last year than they’d been early in that season. Gore has only made one appearance so far this year, but he didn’t issue a single free pass in five scoreless innings with Triple-A El Paso last week, fanning seven of the 16 batters he faced.

Gore is already on the 40-man roster, so a Snell IL placement would be sufficient to accommodate his call-up. How long he’d remain in the rotation is to be seen, but Acee writes that both Snell and right-hander Mike Clevinger are expected to require two minor league rehab starts before returning to the majors. The team announced last night that Clevinger, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery and opened this year on the IL due to some soreness in his right knee, will make his first rehab start today with High-A Lake Elsinore.

Padres Claim Kyle Tyler Off Waivers From Angels

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The Padres announced this evening they’ve claimed right-hander Kyle Tyler off waivers from the Angels. In a corresponding move, reliever Javy Guerra has been designated for assignment.

It’s the second time in three weeks the Friars have claimed Tyler, who has made the run through the waiver wire since the end of the lockout. Originally an Angel, he was designated for assignment and landed with the Red Sox. Boston designated him a few days later, and San Diego claimed him. The Padres waived him last week, and the Angels grabbed him back. Two days after that, Los Angeles tried to pass him through waivers again. As it has for the past three times, that effort failed, and Tyler winds up changing hands.

While his name has made its way around the transaction log, Tyler himself has been shuttled around the country reporting to various destinations. The righty tells Sam Blum of the Athletic he’s flown from Arizona to Florida, back to Arizona, to Washington state, then to his Oklahoma City home within the past couple weeks as he’s bounced from team to team. “I’m ready for this to stop and to just have the opportunity to play, and prove my worth,” he told Blum.”(Show) whether I’m good enough to be on a 40-man roster to stay there.”

Tyler started 14 of his 20 appearances between Double-A Rocket City and Triple-A Salt Lake last season. He worked 86 innings of 3.66 ERA ball between the two levels, punching out a solid 25.3% of opponents against an impressive 6.9% walk rate. Baseball America ranked the University of Oklahoma product #39 in the Angels farm system this winter, praising his above-average command. With all three minor league option years remaining, he’s proven an appealing depth add for a few organizations but has lost his roster spot at each turn before having a chance to pitch.

This time around, Tyler must have almost passed through unclaimed. Jayson Stark of the Athletic reported last month the new collective bargaining agreement dictates a team that has already claimed a player off waivers moves to the back of the order if that player is waived again for the rest of the season. That indicates that at least every team besides the Red Sox passed on Tyler before the Padres got a chance to bring him back into the fold.

If they keep him on the 40-man roster this time, San Diego can stash Tyler in the upper minors as depth. That wasn’t the case for Guerra, who is out of options. The Friars were left to either carry him on the big league club or remove him from the 40-man entirely.

A former well-regarded shortstop prospect, Guerra moved to the mound in 2019 after his bat stalled out in the upper minors. He was already on the 40-man roster by virtue of his time as an infielder. That didn’t afford the organization much time to experiment with him in the minor leagues, as Guerra had exhausted his final option year in 2019. San Diego was reluctant to expose the right-hander to waivers, as his fastball routinely threatened triple digits.

Guerra’s inexperience on the mound was evident in his results, however. He owns an 8.46 ERA in 27 2/3 MLB innings, striking out just 16.5% of batters faced with an underwhelming 8% swinging strike rate. The Friars were clearly reluctant to risk losing Guerra in the belief he has the potential for better numbers, but they’ll take the chance to bring Tyler back and get a little more roster flexibility in the bullpen. San Diego has a week to trade Guerra or try to pass him through waivers.

Blake Snell Scratched From Start

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8:50 PM: Snell is likely headed to the injured list, per Cassavell (via Twitter). Crismatt tossed three scoreless innings in Snell’s place today. The Padres play the next ten games without a day off, so they will certainly move some roster pieces around if Snell is going to be out for that time.

3:38 PM: San Diego Padres starter Blake Snell was a last-minute scratch from his first scheduled start of the season today. The issue is left adductor tightness, the same injury that troubled Snell at the end of last season, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter).

Nabil Crismatt took the ball to start the ballgame in Snell’s stead. The 27-year-old swingman should be fresh, as he has yet to appear in a game so far this season. Today marks the first start of his Major League career, though he was mostly a starter coming up through the Mets’ minor league system. Crismatt owns a 3.71 ERA in 51 career appearances out of the pen.

Crismatt would be a candidate to stay in the rotation for a turn or two if Snell ends up needing a stint on the injured list. Reiss Knehr would be a prospective call-up if the Padres decide to go that route. They just dealt away Chris Paddack, but of course, they wouldn’t have done so with the expectation of needing just five starters to get through the season. They no doubt have a hierarchy in place for just this sort of contingency.

Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t exactly go as planned for either party, and this marks an inauspicious start to year two. The 2018 AL Cy Young winner put up a 4.20 ERA/3.82 FIP over 128 2/3 innings over 27 starts.

Angels Claim Kyle Tyler Off Waivers From Padres

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The Angels announced this afternoon they’ve claimed right-hander Kyle Tyler off waivers from the Padres. San Diego had designated him for assignment this week in advance of setting their Opening Day roster.

It’s a full-circle moment for Tyler, who made his first five major league appearances with Anaheim last season. He tossed 12 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on eight hits with six strikeouts and walks apiece. Tyler only generated swinging strikes on 4.7% of his offerings in his big league cameo, but he had strong strikeout and walk numbers in the minors.

Tyler started 14 of his 20 appearances between Double-A Rocket City and Triple-A Salt Lake. He worked 86 innings of 3.66 ERA ball between the two levels, punching out a solid 25.3% of opponents against an impressive 6.9% walk rate. Baseball America ranked the University of Oklahoma product #39 in the Angels farm system this winter, praising his above-average command.

Despite the solid minor league showing, the Angels designated Tyler for assignment last month when they signed Ryan Tepera. He landed with the Red Sox on waivers, but Boston designated him themselves just two days later. This time, the Friars grabbed him. His stay in San Diego lasted a couple more weeks than did his time with the Sox, but he now finds himself back in Orange County. Tyler has all three minor league option years remaining, so the Angels can stash him at the upper levels as rotation or long relief depth — if they keep him on the 40-man roster this time around.

In a corresponding move, the Angels placed righty Cooper Criswell on the 60-day injured list. The 25-year-old made his first big league start last August but otherwise spent the year in the upper minors. Criswell has been dealing with shoulder soreness this spring and evidently won’t be ready for MLB action until at least the second week of June.

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