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Cards, Nats Have Discussed Dylan Carlson, Dylan Floro

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1:11pm: The Cards and Nats have indeed had ongoing talks on a swap of the two Dylans and could complete a deal this afternoon, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’s not yet clear if other players are involved.

11:17am: The Cardinals crossed a pair of big items off their wishlist yesterday when they acquired right-hander Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham from the White Sox, but they’re still hoping to add to the bullpen, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The Cardinals are openly shopping outfielder Dylan Carlson in a related pursuit, and MLB.com’s John Denton tweets that Nationals right-hander Dylan Floro is a name to watch if St. Louis indeed moves on from Carlson. The Nats are known to have some interest in Carlson.

A few years ago, the notion of trading Carlson for a middle-relief rental would’ve been unfathomable (though it’s of course possible that a theoretical Dylan-for-Dylan swap would also include additional minor league players to balance out the scales). Carlson isn’t all that far removed from ranking among the game’s top 10 to 20 overall prospects. The former first-rounder’s bat has wilted since a solid 2021 showing.

Dating back to 2022, Carlson has batted just .225/.310/.345 in 881 big league plate appearances. That’s come in scattered playing time — in part due to injuries — so the Nats could well view him as a buy-low option with two-plus seasons of club control remaining who could benefit from a change of scenery. (The last controllable outfielder they pried from the Cardinals in exchange for a rental pitcher — Lane Thomas for Jon Lester — worked out nicely, after all.)

Floro, 33, is on a one-year, $2.25MM contract and will be a free agent at season’s end. He’s pitched to a pristine 2.06 earned run average this season, albeit with a rather pedestrian 19.6% strikeout rate and tepid 90.3 mph average fastball. That said, Floro has walked only 6.4% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a strong 47.6% clip. He’s not going to continue to see this level of fortune on his fly-balls — only 2.2% of them have become homers, compared to the 7% mark he carried into the season — but it’s been a nice rebound effort for a veteran reliever who struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00 last year between the Marlins and Twins.

Since cementing himself as a viable big league reliever in 2018, Floro touts a 3.11 ERA in 361 1/3 innings. He’s had a below-average strikeout rate nearly every season along the way, but never egregiously so, and has offset that with habitually strong command. Floro also regularly avoids loud contact, evidenced by a career 87.4 mph average exit velocity, 3.7% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate.

Floro is surely just one of many bullpen arms the Cardinals have looked into in the final hours leading to today’s 5pm CT trade deadline. Concurrently, they’re looking for trade partners for Carlson and the already-designated-for-assignment Giovanny Gallegos. The Cards may not have another blockbuster along the lines of yesterday’s three-team swap in them, but they could still have multiple trades in store today.

11 Long Shot Trade Candidates

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We're less than 24 hours from the deadline. There has been a flurry of activity dating back to Thursday night, taking a few of the top names (e.g Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Carlos Estévez, Isaac Paredes) off the board. We've devoted ample attention to the likes of Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Every deadline features some late surprises. Talks don't always get over the line, but we're likely to hear about discussions on marquee names who are less clear trade candidates than are the good players with limited contractual control on bad teams. None of the following players are likely to be traded. They've probably each got less than a 20% chance of changing uniforms. There's an argument for teams to listen on these players, though they're of varying ability and trade value.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball. If the Tigers trade him, it'd be the biggest transaction of the summer. He's probably the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young award behind a 2.35 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate over 130 innings. Detroit is three games below .500 and 5.5 out in the Wild Card race. Last night's Carson Kelly trade shows they're willing to move rentals. Needless to say, a Skubal trade would be in another stratosphere of significance.

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Angels, Nationals Interested In Dylan Carlson

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The Cardinals are exploring trades of outfielder Dylan Carlson and right-hander Giovanny Gallegos, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club is set to add Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a trade that will subtract Tommy Edman, leaving them needing to open some active roster spots. Gallegos was already removed from the roster as he was designated for assignment yesterday. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers are interested in Gallegos while John Denton of MLB.com relays on X that the Guardians, Angels and Nationals are interested in Carlson, though the Guardians just acquired Lane Thomas from the Nationals, which presumably lowers their interest in Carlson.

Carlson, 25, has been getting squeezed out of playing time this year as guys like Michael Siani, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson have been out on the grass more than he has. The crunch will be even tighter whenever Pham officially reports to the club. As mentioned, the club will have to open a couple of roster spots, so perhaps a trade of Carlson will come together between now and tomorrow’s deadline.

“Right now, he’s still one of our outfielders, but clearly we’re gonna have a roster crunch at some point,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said of Carlson today, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X. “So we’ll use the next 24 hours to see what happens, but he’s still a part of our organization right now and we’ll see where that goes.”

Sending out Carlson now would definitely be a sell-low move for the Cards. Not too long ago, he was the club’s first-round pick and one of their top prospects. He also seemed to be establishing himself as a solid regular in the major leagues when he first arrived. In 2021, he got into 149 games and hit 18 home runs while drawing walks at a 9.2% rate. He also received close to league average grades for his outfield glovework and was considered to be worth 2.4 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

That was only his age-22 season, so it seemed fair to expect better results going forward, but the opposite has happened. In 2022, Carlson went on the injured list a couple of times, first due to a left hamstring strain and then a left thumb sprain. He got into 128 games with his production slipping a bit, finishing that year with a line of .236/.316/.380 and a 99 wRC+.

Last year, left ankle issues sent him to the IL multiple times, limiting him to just 76 games and ultimately requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 on the year for a wRC+ of 84, another dip in his production but perhaps one connected to his health.

Coming into 2024, he seemed to have a chance to engineer a rebound. Both Edman and Nootbaar were slated to start the season on the IL, which should have opened up plenty of playing time for Carlson. Unfortunately, just at the end of Spring Training, Carlson and Jordan Walker collided while trying to make a catch in the outfield. Carlson was diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder and also had to start the season on the IL.

He was back by early May but, as mentioned, hasn’t been able to earn much playing time this year. When in the lineup, he hasn’t done much to earn a longer leash, having hit .198/.275/.240 here in 2024.

Perhaps some clubs will be eyeing Carlson as a change-of-scenery candidate. He’s been trending downwards for three straight years now but mostly due to injuries. It’s feasible that with some health luck and regular playing time somewhere, he could return to the form he showed a few years back. He is making a modest $2.35MM salary this year and has two more years of control left. He’ll be due raises in arbitration but won’t be able to push his salary up much based on his recent results and injury absences. Carlson also has options and doesn’t necessarily need to be traded, though the Cardinals may prefer to just cash him in for something now as he may no longer be in their future plans.

The Nationals have moved on from a few veteran outfielders already this year. Eddie Rosario and Víctor Robles were released and Jesse Winker was traded to the Mets. As mentioned, Thomas was just flipped to the Guardians. Perhaps they could slot Carlson in there next to James Wood and Jacob Young.

The Angels would be in a somewhat similar position. They are giving outfield playing time to guys who could be traded like Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar. If they pull the trigger on a deal for either of those guys, they could grab Carlson in a buy-low move and give him some run for the rest of this year or perhaps next year.

Gallegos would also be a sell-low move, but the Cards don’t have much choice there. He’s an impending free agent and they already sent him off the roster and into DFA limbo. He was one of the better relievers in the league not so long ago, tossing 228 1/3 innings over the 2019-22 seasons with a 2.84 ERA. He struck out 32% of batters faced in that time and only gave out walks at a 6.6% rate, earning 33 saves and 56 holds in the process.

But his ERA jumped to 4.42 last year as his strikeout rate fell to 25.8%. Here in 2024, his punchouts have fallen to a rate of 22.3% as his ERA has climbed to 6.53. That got him nudged off the roster but the Dodgers have a solid reputation of getting good results from pitchers and perhaps see a way to get Gallegos back on track. He is making $5.5MM this year, with roughly $1.8MM still to be paid out. The Dodgers are slated to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top tier, meaning they face a 110% tax rate on anything they add to their payroll at this point.

Cardinals Acquire Fedde, Pham; Dodgers Acquire Edman, Kopech In Three-Team Deal With White Sox

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What’s a trade deadline without a convoluted three-team swap? The Cardinals, White Sox and Dodgers have announced a three-team, eight-player deal (possibly including up to 10 players) that breaks down as follows:

It’s a massive exchange of veteran names that’ll have significant postseason implications for a pair of National League contenders. The Cardinals, in need of rotation help and a right-handed bat, checked two boxes with today’s swap, while the Dodgers added some needed positional versatility to help cover multiple weak spots in the lineup and a hard-throwing reliever with an extra season of club control.

Starting with the Cardinals, they’ll bolster their starting staff not just this season but also in 2025. Fedde, a former first-round pick and top prospect with the Nationals, flamed out in five seasons here in MLB before heading to the KBO’s NC Dinos for one year. He spent the 2023 season in South Korea, added a splitter and changed the shape of his breaking ball, and dominated KBO opponents en route to an MVP Award. He returned to MLB on a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox and has immediately established himself as a new and highly improved pitcher.

In 121 2/3 innings for the ChiSox, Fedde has pitched to a sharp 3.11 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate is shy of league-average by one percentage point, but his 6.8% walk rate is strong and his 44.7% grounder rate is also a bit better than average. He’s avoided hard contact (88.1 mph average exit velocity, 36% hard-hit rate) and kept opponents off balance with a four-pitch mix including a cutter, sinker, slider and split-changeup.

Fedde solidifies the back of a veteran Cardinals rotation that has been without lefty Steven Matz (back strain) since late April. The Cards have been relying on righty Andre Pallante to help patch things over, and while he’s been a godsend in that role (3.42 ERA in nine starts), the 25-year-old is also already just four innings shy of his 2023 total and can be a vital piece in the bullpen as well.

The addition of Fedde will prove vital for a Cardinals club that only had three starters signed through the 2025 season as well. Sonny Gray is being paid $25MM annually from 2024-26, while Miles Mikolas is owed $20MM next year. Matz will be in the fourth and final season of his own $44MM contract next year, but his ongoing health troubles make it tough to bank on him. The Cardinals hold club options over veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, but neither is a lock to be picked up. Fedde, owed $7.5MM this year and next, gives the Cardinals some long-term stability at a highly affordable rate.

In addition to their desired rotation upgrade, the Cards will get the right-handed bat they’ve been seeking. It’ll come in the form of a reunion with Pham, whom they originally selected in the 16th round of the 2006 draft. Pham made his big league debut with the 2014 Cardinals and spent the next three-plus seasons in St. Louis before being traded to the Rays in a deal that brought Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams back to the Cardinals.

Pham, now 36, has since played for six additional teams. The Rays traded him Padres after two seasons, and he’s since signed free-agent deals with the Reds, Mets and White Sox — getting traded at the deadline in three consecutive seasons. Pham has remained productive at the plate even as he’s become a year-to-year mercenary in his mid-30s. He slashed .256/.328/.446 between the Mets and D-backs in 2023 and owns a .266/.330/.380 output in 297 plate appearances with the White Sox.

Pham won’t receive everyday at-bats in his return to Busch Stadium, but Pham’s hefty .255/.377/.471 line against lefties will make him a useful part-time player for manager Oli Marmol. He’ll make for a nice platoon partner for glove-first center fielder Michael Siani (with Pham presumably taking over in left field and Lars Nootbaar manning center against southpaws).

In order to open a 40-man roster spot, the Cardinals designated catcher Nick Raposo for assignment. The 26-year-old signed with the Cards as an undrafted free agent after the truncated five-round draft in 2020. He was selected to the MLB roster earlier this summer to help account for some catching injuries, but he didn’t get into a big league game. He’s hitting .193/.251/.349 in Triple-A this season but turned in a more encouraging .241/.321/.386 slash last year between Double-A and Triple-A. The Cards could trade him before tomorrow’s deadline, and if not, he’ll be placed on outright waivers.

That the Cardinals were able to acquire both Fedde and Pham while only surrendering Edman and a 17-year-old they just signed as an international free agent earlier this year is somewhat remarkable. It’s a nice feather in the cap of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, general manager Mike Girsch and the rest of the St. Louis baseball ops staff. The Cards added two big league contributors to a contending club and did so not only without sacrificing any prospects — but without sacrificing anyone who’s contributed to their second-place team at any point this season.

That’s not to denigrate Edman as a player, of course — far from it. The switch-hitting 29-year-old is as versatile as he is talented when healthy, and he’ll presumably be healthy enough to join the Dodgers in short order. Edman hasn’t played this season due to a longer-than-expected recovery process from offseason wrist surgery and an ankle sprain he suffered while rehabbing that wrist. Edman has played four games with the Cardinals’ Double-A affiliate on a minor league rehab assignment and figures to now continue his rehab work in the Dodgers’ system. He’ll have about two more weeks of rehab window before he needs to be activated, though Los Angeles can certainly do so sooner if they see fit.

Edman has spent four-plus seasons in the big leagues, playing second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions. He rather incredibly grades out as an above-average defender at each of those positions, per Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved alike. That jack-of-all-trades skill set is emblematic of the type of player the Dodgers try to roster as often as possible. Edman, once healthy, will give L.A. an option at shortstop or second base, helping to cover for the loss of Mookie Betts. Once Betts returns, Edman can either play shortstop (with Betts moving to second base), second base (with Betts at short and Miguel Rojas in a utility role) or anywhere in the outfield (with Rojas and Betts handling middle infield duties).

Beyond the defensive wizardry, Edman has proven himself a capable hitter. He’s yet to recreate the terrific .304/.350/.500 line he posted as a Cardinals rookie in 2019, but he’s a career .265/.319/.408 hitter in 2425 plate appearances. He’s not a big home run threat but has hit between 11 and 13 homers in all four of his full big league seasons (plus five homers in the shortened 2020 campaign). He doesn’t walk especially often (6.2%) but also rarely strikes out (16.5%). On top of that, Edman offers 88th percentile sprint speed (per Statcast) and has swiped 106 bags in 123 attempts at the MLB level (86.2%).

Edman signed a two-year, $16.5MM contract in the 2022-23 offseason, buying out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility. He’s earning $7MM this season and another $9.5MM next year. The Dodgers are a third-time luxury tax offender in the top tier of penalization, so they’ll pay a 110% tax on the average annual value both of Edman’s contract and of Kopech’s one-year deal with the club.

Onto Kopech, the 28-year-old former top prospect gives the Dodgers one of baseball’s hardest-throwing relievers for the remainder of this year and all of 2025. He’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and owed a raise on this year’s modest $3MM salary.

The White Sox have used Kopech both as a starter and reliever, but lackluster command of his dynamic arsenal has undercut his effectiveness in both roles. He’s been used exclusively out of the ’pen in 2024 and saved nine games while pitching 43 2/3 innings of 4.74 ERA ball. The earned run average isn’t going to draw much fanfare, but Kopech has averaged a blistering 98.5 mph on his four-seamer, fanned 30.9% of his opponents and generated a gaudy 14.1% swinging-strike rate. He’s been plagued by a 12.6% walk rate and 1.65 HR/9, but Kopech has shown flashes of potential as a powerhouse, shutdown reliever.

Kopech is currently in the midst of his best stretch of the season. After getting blown up for four runs back on July 7, he’s rattled off 5 2/3 shutout innings with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers, who have a knack for maximizing pitching performances, are surely thrilled to get their hands on a pitcher with Kopech’s blazing heater and hard slider. Whether they can coax the level of performance from him that has long seemed dormant in Kopech’s talented but inconsistent right arm remains an open question, but if they’re able to do so, he’s a high-octane weapon who can take on a leverage role in a bullpen that has seen closer Evan Phillips struggle of late.

Los Angeles will also pick up the 17-year-old Gonzalez, who’s not considered to be among the Cardinals’ top-ranked prospects but did command a relatively notable $400K signing bonus out of Panama just seven months ago. The 6’4″, 200-pound righty has pitched 21 1/3 innings for the Cardinals’ Rookie-level Dominican Summer League affiliate and posted a 4.22 ERA while punching out 28.6% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate.

Turning to the rebuilding White Sox’ end of the deal, their return is headlined by Vargas, who’ll presumably step right onto the big league roster. The 24-year-old ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2023 season but has fallen down the depth chart in Los Angeles after struggling to carry his excellent minor league production over to the majors. Vargas has appeared in 129 big league games and taken 434 plate appearances, but he’s a .201/.294/.364 hitter in that time.

Rough as those numbers are, Vargas has continued to absolutely pummel Triple-A pitching this season. He’s hitting .290/.440/.556 in Oklahoma City and has a career .297/.412/.512 batting line there in 996 plate appearances. He’s played third base, second base, first base and left field in his career, with the bulk of his experience coming at third base and second base. Vargas has regularly been blocked by more veteran, more expensive players at those positions but should get a full run at third base or second base with his new team.

Some Sox fans may bristle at the notion of a former top prospect headlining this deal, rather than a current one, but Vargas still has five seasons of club control remaining and has already gotten his feet wet in the majors. He’s an on-base machine who’s walked at an impressive 11.1% clip even while struggling in the big leagues and has fanned in a below-average 20.7% of his MLB plate appearances. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where he improves on both of those rate stats as he gets more big league experience and begins to solidify himself as a bona fide MLB-caliber hitter.

Joining Vargas in the White Sox’ system will be Albertus and Perez: both 19-year-old infielders who signed with the Dodgers as international free agents in 2022 (Albertus out of Aruba, Perez out of the Dominican Republic). Baseball America ranked both players inside the Dodgers’ top-20 prospects heading into the 2024 season, and both currently reside in that same range on MLB.com’s updated list of the top 30 Dodgers prospects.

Albertus has split the season between the Dodgers’ Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate and Class-A affiliate. He tore through the former at a .342/.479/.459 pace with more walks (18.9%) than strikeouts (14%) and is hitting .229/.317/.329 in 82 plate appearances against more advanced pitching. Baseball America credits him with a plus hit tool and the potential for average power, calling him a bat-first infield prospect who could see regular playing time across multiple positions. MLB.com lauds him for having one of the most disciplined approaches in a deep Dodgers system and calls him a potential regular at second or third.

Perez has spent the entire season in Class-A and carries a hearty .264/.380/.420 batting line with 10 homers in 350 trips to the plate. He’s walked at a huge 13.7% clip against a 22% strikeout rate despite being just over two years younger than the average player in the league. Both BA and MLB.com note that he lacks a true plus tool but is solid across the board. Like Albertus, he draws praise for an advanced approach at the plate that’s well beyond his years. Perez has good contact skills and the ability to play multiple positions.

For a White Sox club that is often characterized by low-OBP, all-or-nothing hitters, the focus on bringing in three infielders with huge on-base ceilings feels like a rather targeted focus. None of the three players are going to jump to immediately land among the top 50 prospects in the game — Vargas isn’t even prospect-eligible anymore — but they all have a relatively similar feel and offer a potential glimpse at the type of hitters that rookie GM Chris Getz would prefer to see populating his roster in future seasons.

KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander reported Sunday night that the Sox, Dodgers and Cards had engaged in some level of discussions on a three-team deal involving Fedde and Edman. Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reported Monday that a three-team deal was nearing the finish line. Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that Fedde would go to the Cardinals and Edman to the Dodgers. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that Vargas, Perez and Albertus were headed to the White Sox. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Pham was going to the Cardinals. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Cardinals were giving up an low-level minor leaguer.

Yankees Discussing Nestor Cortes In Trade Talks

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The Yankees are firm deadline buyers, but they’ve also been discussing left-hander Nestor Cortes with other teams, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He adds an unexpected name to the starting pitching market — presumably one for whom the Yankees would prefer to add big league talent. (Heyman adds that the Yankees have some interest in Cardinals utilityman Tommy Edman but does not go so far as to suggest the two sides have discussed a Cortes-for-Edman swap.)

On the one hand, it’s always a bit surprising to see a win-now club of this nature discuss an active member of its rotation in trades. On the other, the Yankees went down a similar path just two years ago with another left-hander, Jordan Montgomery, when they traded him to the Cardinals in exchange for center fielder Harrison Bader.

At the time, Montgomery was a quality fourth option in a deep Yankees rotation but not one who was going to make the team’s postseason rotation. There’s similar context here. The Yankees could go with a postseason rotation including a combination of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil and/or a returning Clarke Schmidt. There’s also the possibility that GM Brian Cashman adds a more impactful arm to the group before tomorrow’s deadline.

Cortes, 29, is in the midst of a generally solid season but has floundered of late. He’s pitched to a 4.13 ERA in 124 1/3 innings, striking out 22.5% of his opponents (right on par with league average) and issuing walks at a tiny 5% clip along the way. However, he’s run into a rough patch of late, failing to complete five innings in each of his past three starts and serving up a total of 15 runs over the course of 13 2/3 innings during that mini-slump.

Like Montgomery in 2022, Cortes is affordable ($3.95MM salary) and controlled for one additional year. A new team would be able to retain him for the 2025 season via arbitration. He’ll be owed a raise of some note but should still see his salary fall well shy of $10MM.

This hasn’t been Cortes’ best season, but he’s solidified himself as a quality big league starter — and taken a unique path to getting there. The Orioles selected Cortes out of the Yankees’ system in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft but designated him for assignment that April and returned him to the Yankees. Just 18 months later, Cortes was designated for assignment by the Yankees, this time getting traded to the Mariners for international bonus allotments. Things didn’t pan out in Seattle, and Cortes returned to the Yanks as a minor league free agent in the 2020-21 offseason.

Since returning to the Bronx, Cortes touts a 3.38 ERA in 439 innings. He’s entrenched himself into the New York rotation, but with their control over the lefty dwindling and a solid collection of alternative options on the big league roster, flipping Cortes for some big league help in the infield — be it Edman or any number of other infield options presently on the market — or an outfielder who could push Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base more regularly could work to the Yankees’ benefit.

All that said, it’d be somewhat surprising if the Yankees moved Cortes and didn’t backfill the rotation with a different addition. Cole has only made seven starts after spending the first two months of the season on the injured list with an elbow issue. Gil looks to have recovered from a rough patch he hit in June, but he’s up to 107 1/3 innings after pitching only four innings last year while mending from Tommy John surgery. Schmidt has been on the injured list since late May due to a lat strain. Rodon, like Gil, hit a rough spot in June and has righted the ship of late — but his track record in New York is spotty, to put things lightly. Stroman’s results have been solid (3.64 ERA) but he’s sporting career-worst strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (leading to a 5.22 FIP and 4.85 SIERA).

There’s some sense to moving Cortes to address needs in another area — but only if they’re also adding a starting pitcher who’d more concretely slot into a playoff rotation and make up the remainder of Cortes’ innings for the balance of the regular season. That’s a tricky tightrope to walk, but it’s one the Yankees have navigated in the very recent past.

Latest On Cardinals’ Interest In Erick Fedde

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White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde has been connected to plenty of teams in the run-up to this summer’s trade deadline, including the Brewers and Astros, but no team has been more frequently connected to the right-hander than the Cardinals. The club’s “strong interest” in the 2023 KBO MVP’s services was reported last week, and since then multiple reports have connected Fedde to St. Louis as the Cards scour the market for an affordable starting pitching option to bolster their current rotation of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante.

The fit between St. Louis and Fedde is a fairly obvious one given the club’s uncertain rotation situation headed into 2025 and Fedde’s additional year of team control after 2024. Even setting the contractual fit aside, the right-hander sports a strong 3.11 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 21 starts with Chicago this year. If Fedde were in the St. Louis rotation with those numbers, he’d have the lowest ERA by more than half a run and the second-lowest FIP behind only Sonny Gray’s sterling 2.85 figure. With the Cardinals just one game back of a Wild Card spot and six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, the addition of Fedde would not only help them as they look to return to the postseason after a last place finish in their division last year but would also give the club a solid front-of-the-rotation arm to start alongside Gray in a potential Wild Card series.

Clear as the fit between the Cardinals and Fedde may be, there appear to be some hurdles preventing a deal from coming together for the time being. With so many potential suitors for his services, the White Sox appear to have set a hefty asking price in trade for the 31-year-old. According to SoxMachine’s James Fegan, the South Siders have “at least tried” to include young outfielder Jordan Walker in trade talks with the Cardinals regarding Fedde. St. Louis’s first-round pick in the 2020 draft, Walker was a consensus top-5 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 campaign but has struggled somewhat at the big league level so far.

The youngster hit a solid but unspectacular .276/.342/.445 in his rookie season last year and was optioned back to the minor leagues back in April after an abysmal .155/.239/.259 showing in his first 20 games this season. Since returning to Triple-A, Walker has continued to struggle as he’s hit just .237/.305/.372 in 295 trips to the plate at the level this year. Despite those deep struggles, however, Walker is still just one season removed from being an above-average hitter in the big leagues, won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 season, and is still very young at just 22 years old. That’s an incredibly steep price to pay for one-plus years of a starting pitcher, even one as talented as Fedde.

Given there’s no indication that the Cardinals have been at all receptive to including Walker in a Fedde deal, it seems as though the sides may be facing a gap in trade talks. Even if that’s the case, though, that doesn’t necessarily mean a deal sending Fedde to St. Louis couldn’t eventually come together. As noted by Ari Alexander of KPRC-2, the White Sox and Cardinals have “discussed” the potential framework of a three-team trade that would also involve the Dodgers. Los Angeles is known to have interest in Cardinals switch-hitting utilityman Tommy Edman, and The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported earlier today that St. Louis is hoping to acquire cost-controlled starting pitching in return for Edman.

That would make a hypothetical three-team trade in which the Cardinals acquire Fedde from the White Sox while giving up Edman to the Dodgers seemingly reasonable framework, although it’s unclear whether the Cardinals would have to part with more pieces than just Edman to make the deal work, nor is it clear which pieces the Dodgers would ship to Chicago to complete their end of the bargain. Speculatively speaking, if the White Sox were interested in acquiring Walker as the centerpiece of a deal for Fedde, the Dodgers could dangle a young hitter of their own such as James Outman or Miguel Vargas as a centerpiece for their part of the trade.

Alexander reports that no deal between the sides is in place as things stand, but the discussions seem to confirm a willingness to get creative on the part of all sides as the Cardinals continue their pursuit of pitching upgrades while the Dodgers look to lengthen a lineup that has lost key pieces like Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and Miguel Rojas to injury, leaving them with well below average production in the back half of their lineup.

Yankees Interested In Tommy Edman

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The Yankees are among the teams that have inquired with the Cardinals regarding the availability of infielder/outfielder Tommy Edman, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. The Yankees join the Dodgers, whose interest in Edman’s services was discussed earlier today, in inquiring after the versatile switch-hitter.

Edman, 29, has yet to make his season debut in the majors after undergoing wrist surgery last fall. The recovery from that surgery has taken much longer than expected, and while he’s begun a rehab assignment at the Double-A level, that’s come entirely as a DH. It seems unlikely that Edman, who hit just .248/.307/.399 in 137 games for the Cardinals last year, would garner much interest from any club as a DH-only player. Any suitor would likely need to be confident of Edman’s ability to play the field for them this year in order to make a deal.

While his health status is something of a question mark, it’s hardly a surprise that the Yankees would be interested in Edman’s services. After all, the versatile defender has experience at every position on the diamond besides first base and catcher and has shown the ability to be a plus glove at each of those positions. That combination of versatility and defensive excellence is rather rare and, in conjunction with a switch-hitting bat that has produced an almost exactly league average wRC+ of 99 throughout his career, it would make Edman a valuable piece for almost any team. The Yankees, who have gotten below average production from virtually every spot in the lineup not occupied by Juan Soto or Aaron Judge this year, are no exception to that.

It may seem as though the recent deal that sent infielder/outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the Bronx would leave the Yankees without much motivation to acquire Edman. After all, Chisholm is another versatile defender who has experience at both shortstop and center field, and his 103 wRC+ this year is significantly better than the 92 wRC+ Edman posted with the Cardinals in 2023. It’s easy to imagine both players co-existing in the same lineup, however. After all, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Brendan Kuty of The Athletic) earlier today that the club plans to use Chisholm at third base when he’s playing the infield. It’s a position that Chisholm has never played before in the majors, but Boone expressed a preference for keeping incumbent second baseman Gleyber Torres (who also has no experience at the hot corner) where he is, at least for the time being.

The addition of Edman, who has 94 games at third in the majors under his belt, could allow the Yankees to add a more experienced glove to the lineup at the hot corner while still providing a significant offensive upgrade over other internal options like DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera. By adding Edman to the mix at third base, the club could either utilize Chisholm as a super-utility type to maximize the club’s offensive production by resting players like Torres and Alex Verdugo against tough matchups, or perhaps the club could even look to deal a bat like Torres or Trent Grisham in order to acquire bullpen help as they’ve been rumored to be considering. Edman could also pair with Chisholm to offer some additional certainty to the Yankees headed into a 2025 season where Soto, Torres, Verdugo, and potentially Anthony Rizzo could all be ticketed for free agency, leaving plenty of holes to fill in the Bronx.

That doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be obstacles to a potential deal, however, even if Edman is healthy enough to be worth dealing for. According to Woo, the Cardinals are believed to be targeting “cost-controlled major-league starting pitching” in return for Edman’s services, with Woo suggesting that St. Louis could target Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes in return. Cortes, 29, is controlled through the end of the 2025 season just like Edman is and has posted a 4.13 ERA with a 3.99 FIP in 22 starts this year. It’s unclear if the Yankees would be willing to part ways with Cortes or any of their starting pitching options, particularly as rumors swirl surrounding the possibility of them acquiring another arm that would allow them to manage Luis Gil’s innings with a second-half bullpen assignment.

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Brebbia, Matz, Kloffenstein

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While the Cardinals are looking to buy at the deadline as they chase an NL wild card slot, the team could also pursue some strategic selling, as the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers have interest in Tommy Edman’s services.  The versatile Edman could provide depth or even a starting role at multiple positions for an injury-riddled Dodgers team, and it be can argued that St. Louis already has enough position-player depth to make Edman expendable.

Of course, the chief obstacle to a deal is Edman’s own health status, as he has still yet to play in a big league game this season.  Edman underwent wrist surgery last fall and the rehab process has taken considerably longer than expected — his recovery has been delayed by a couple of shutdowns due to recurring wrist soreness, as well as a sprained ankle.  He has played in seven games during his rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield, but only as a DH, rather than any action in the field.

The Cards would certainly be selling low on a player who generated 5.4 fWAR as recently as 2022, between Edman’s strong glovework all over the diamond and an above-average (106 wRC+) performance at the plate.  However, 2022 represented the high-water mark of Edman’s offensive production over a full season, as he had an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and a 92 wRC+ in 528 PA last season.

The two-year, $16.5MM extension Edman signed last January also puts a significant price tag on his services, with about $2.4MM still owed to him this season and then $9.5MM owed in 2025.  The Cardinals would almost certainly have to eat a big chunk of that money to accommodate a trade, unless they perhaps swapped Edman to the Dodgers or another team for another unfavorable contract.

Such a creative move might in some way address the Cardinals’ other deadline needs, which Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat outlines as a right-handed hitting outfielder, starting pitching, and some bullpen depth.  For this latter goal, Jones reports that the Cards have interest in White Sox reliever John Brebbia.

It would be a reunion between the Cardinals and the veteran reliever, as Brebbia broke into the big leagues with St. Louis in 2017 and quickly established himself as a workhorse.  Brebbia posted a 3.14 ERA over 175 relief innings over the 2017-19 season, but a Tommy John surgery kept him sidelined for the entire 2020 season, and the Cards non-tendered him following that lost year.  He re-established himself pitching for the Giants from 2021-23, and signed a one-year free agent deal with the White Sox this past winter that pays him $4MM in salary, with a $1.5MM buyout of a $6MM mutual option for 2025.

Brebbia’s work with the Sox has been a lot better than his 5.22 ERA might indicate, as a .352 BABIP has inflated the righty’s bottom-line numbers.  In terms of secondary metrics, Brebbia has a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, as well as above-average hard-contact numbers.  With the White Sox in clear sell mode, Brebbia is a likely candidate to be on the move before the deadline, and St. Louis could among several terms intrigued by Brebbia’s Statcast line rather than his misleading ERA.

The Cardinals figure to land pitching even some internal arms are on the mend, as Steven Matz is tentatively slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week (as per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  Matz’s injury-plagued tenure with the Cards has now seen him miss almost three months due to back problems, with the southpaw posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings in April before being sidelined.  Since Matz’s rehab work has already been shut down twice by recurring back pain, this next rehab assignment doesn’t represent a clear sign that the veteran is fully on the road to recovery, but he did log two simulated innings in a throwing session on Saturday.

In more concerning injury news, Adam Kloffenstein has discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Oliver Marmol told Jones and other reporters.  Kloffenstein is currently on the minor league injured list as testing is being done to determine the nature and extent of the problem.  Acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with the Blue Jays last summer, Kloffenstein has a 4.74 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and 17 Triple-A starts this season, and he made his Major League debut in cup-of-coffee form with one inning in the Cards’ 6-5 win over the Giants on June 20.

Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

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The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Report: Cardinals Have “Strong Interest” In Erick Fedde

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The Cardinals have “strong interest” in White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning. Fedde is among a number of controllable pieces that the White Sox have made available this summer, alongside breakout left-hander Garrett Crochet and star center fielder Luis Robert Jr.

Fedde, 31, lacks the star power of either Crochet or Robert but is nonetheless one of the most attractive pieces expected to be available this summer. The former first-round pick was a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball in the late 2010’s but generally struggled at the big league level after debuting with the Nationals back in 2017. In parts of six season with the club, Fedde posted a lackluster 5.41 ERA in 102 appearances, including 88 starts. Those struggles led Fedde to depart affiliate ball to pitch in the Korea Baseball Organization last year, and the stint overseas hardly could’ve gone better for the righty. In an MVP campaign for the NC Dinos, Fedde posted a sterling 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings of work across 30 starts while striking out 29.5% of batters faced.

The righty’s success overseas earned him renewed stateside interest this past winter, and the White Sox ultimately pounced by offering him a two-year, $15MM guarantee. The deal has gone about as well as anyone could’ve have hoped so far. Through 19 starts this season, Fedde appears to be an entirely different pitcher than he was in his days with the Nationals. His 21.6% strikeout rate is a near-match for his career-best mark from 2021, and his 6.6% walk rate is by far the lowest of his MLB career. After allowing a whopping 18.1% of his fly balls to the leave the yard for home runs during his time with the Nationals, Fedde has greatly improved in that regard this year as well with just 9.2% of his fly balls ending up in the stands so far. In all, that’s left Fedde with an excellent 2.99 ERA (138 ERA+) and a solid 3.53 FIP (82 FIP-) in 111 1/3 innings of work this season.

That sort of production would be welcome in virtually any contender’s rotation, and it’s surely all the more enticing for clubs that Fedde is under control for the 2025 season at a bargain $7.5MM price tag as well. That combination of low financial cost, team control, and production makes Fedde a strong candidate for virtually any pitching-hungry team in the league, so it’s easy to see why the Cardinals would have interest in the right-hander’s services.

Injury woes have kept veteran lefty Steven Matz out of action since late April, forcing the Cardinals to rely on pieces like Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore to fill out the rotation behind Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Kyle Gibson. Even that front quartet has yielded mix results, with Gray and Gibson’s solid numbers being offset by the struggles of Lynn and Mikolas. Altogether, Cardinals starters this season have delivered a lackluster 4.43 ERA that ranks in the bottom ten among all major league clubs.

Despite those woes in the rotation, St. Louis has surged since an early-season slump and is currently sitting at a 52-47 record that places them firmly in the NL Wild Card picture and just five games back of the Brewers for the NL Central crown. The addition of a quality, playoff-caliber starter to their rotation would be a huge boost not only for their chances of making it into the postseason, but also for their odds in a potential Wild Card series, where Fedde could pair with Gray to make an impressive front two that could go toe-to-toe with most contenders in the NL. What’s more, Fedde’s additional year of team control could make him a particularly attractive option for a club that currently boasts 33-year-old Matz as the youngest arm in the rotation, and could stand to lose both Gibson and Lynn to free agency this winter if the club declines their club options on the veteran duo.

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