White Sox Rumors

Can The White Sox Make The Most Of Andrew Vaughn?

By TC Zencka | January 17, 2022 at 9:49am CDT

The White Sox have one of the best closers of his generation burning a hole in their pocket. Craig Kimbrel’s trade availability is no secret, so much so that speculation has reached the what-happens-if-they-don’t-trade-him part of the trade rumors life cycle, as explored yesterday by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk. That said, when GM Rick Hahn picks up the phone to talk shop with one of the other 29 general managers, Kimbrel’s not likely the sole topic of conversation.

After all, determining value for a player like Kimbrel can often be accomplished by touching on a number of evaluative points, i.e. players, before circling back to the original focus. And of course, sometimes those conversation never return to the original player of focus at all. Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports speculates on who some of those other players are that the White Sox might bandy about in trade talks. This practice mostly amounts to a listing of the White Sox prospects and young players who haven’t yet established themselves in full-time roles, and sure enough, for Chicago’s Southsiders, they are the type of win-now club that must consider moving prospects.

The top player on Duber’s list (after Kimbrel), is Andrew Vaughn, the third overall pick of the 2019 draft. After an explosive season with the California Golden Bears, Vaughn was seen as a potential fast-riser, but it was still surprising to see the White Sox take a first baseman third overall, behind only superstars-in-waiting Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Impressive though his bat was, first baseman simply don’t usually go that high in the draft.

What’s more, the White Sox already had a first baseman in Jose Abreu. Abreu hadn’t yet put up his 2020 MVP season, but internally, the organization has always held him in high regard. Drafting for positional need isn’t exactly the rule of thumb for the MLB draft, of course. Regardless, at the time, Abreu was a potential free agent at the end of the year. So Vaughn, besides being a high-end college bat, benefited the White Sox as an insurance policy and negotiating tactic even before he donned a uniform.

Vaughn being blocked at first by Abreu was an easy can to kick down the road for Chicago’s draft team, but the hypothetical quandary actualized in 2021 as Vaughn approached big-league readiness. Though 2019 was his only season of minor league experience because of the pandemic, the White Sox nevertheless deemed Vaughn ready for the show in 2021, and they didn’t let the fact that there wasn’t an avenue to regular playing time stop them from placing Vaughn on the opening day roster. Of course, injuries cleared a path: all Vaughn had to do was learn a new position on the fly at the highest level of the sport.

All things considered, Vaughn held his own rather well in his rookie season, slashing .235/.309/.396 across 469 plate appearances while spending time at first base, left field, right field, second base, and third base. His performance at the plate was a touch disappointing as he finished six percent worse than average with a 94 wRC+, but if anyone deserves a little grace, it’s Vaughn.

Again, let’s consider the circumstances. Vaughn played his age-23 season not having played organized baseball in more than a year, never having appeared above High-A while adjusting to life as a part-time player and learning not one, but four new positions. He did so for a team with postseason expectations that absolutely did not have time to wait for Vaughn to “grow up.” He did so while taking the place of not one, but two injured outfielders in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert who had quickly become the faces of the rising power in Armour Square. Even to be roughly the value of a replacement player under those circumstances (0.2 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR) has to be counted as a win for the ChiSox. The future is bright for Vaughn, with Steamer projecting Vaughn to become a 114 wRC+ hitter by next season.

For a high draft pick debuting for a championship contender, Vaughn’s national spotlight was surprisingly dim. His low profile can be partially attributed to the other stars on the team that pull attention their way, it could be partially attributed to the fact that the White Sox ran away with the division, but most of all, it’s probably attributable to the fact that part-time players rarely take center stage. And as Gavin Sheets, another rookie bat, crushed righty after righty, Vaughn was more-and-more relegated to the short-side platoon duties for which he was probably best suited.

Vaughn’s platoon splits are hard to ignore. The young slugger mauled southpaws to the tune of a 156 wRC+ with a .269/.383/.555 line. Against right-handers, Vaughn shrunk to a .221/.277/.332 triple slash, a mere 68 wRC+. Based on that production, Vaughn is already an elite short-side platoon bat. The question is whether he can grow to be more than that if he’s not getting those at-bats against same-handed hurlers. The White Sox will be heavy favorites in the AL Central, but the Royals and Tigers are rising, and the Twins and Guardians were formidable foes not long ago. It’s fair to question whether they can give him that time and space to develop.

We have to ask the question: should the White Sox trade Vaughn? For as much as Chicago will be favorited, they have holes to fill at second base, right field, and potentially in the rotation. It would hurt to move Vaughn, but to Duber’s point, we need only return to the Kimbrel trade to see Hahn’s willingness to shuffle pieces around to meet positional need – even when that means sacrificing young players. Last year’s trade of Nick Madrigal was a particular circumstance, of course, where Madrigal’s injury rendered him a zero in 2021. Hahn saw the potential to turn Madrigal’s zero into positive points on the ledger as they made a bid to be World Series contenders.

Of course, given how that turned out for Chicago, Hahn might think twice about making a similar move. That said, moving Vaughn would be a similar move if Vaughn is going to continue as a part-time player. Turning part-time production into full-time production would be a similar capitalization of resources, but that assumes that Chicago won’t find a way to get Vaughn into the lineup on a regular basis. Besides, his long-term potential coupled with his elite production against lefties might be enough for Hahn to tighten his grip on Vaughn, regardless of what kind of player he could get in return.

There’s also the matter of Vaughn’s “versatility,” which Chicago certainly utilized in 2021. Vaughn didn’t embarrass himself defensively at any position, but he also wasn’t a positive in any spot. Sure, they can continue to move him around the diamond as needs arise, but that might not be the best way to maximize Vaughn as a resource.

There are basically two avenues that the White Sox will want to consider for Vaughn as a resource. How can they maximize his value to help this team right now, and how can they best develop Vaughn as a player to reach his substantial ceiling? If they feel confident in aligning those tracks, then there’s no reason to consider moving Vaughn, not when alternatives to fill those roster holes remain. If the White Sox have doubts about their ability to multi-task Vaughn’s development, then it’s worth considering his value on the market.

Then again, what exactly would they be targeting in a deal? A regular second baseman or right fielder with similar team control and potential. Say, a Nick Madrigal type? I kid. But maybe they could pair Vaughn with Kimbrel to get a true in-their-prime superstar in return? Unfortunately, Kimbrel and Vaughn together offer the wrong blend of win-now and build-to-the-future potential for a team that might be willing to subtract a “true superstar.” Besides, there are only so many young players who have proven themselves to be Major League players that a team wants to surrender, even if they have holes to fill.

These deals happen, of course, and they’re rarely easy to spot before the trades are delivered to the league office. The Brewers and Rays excel at these types of deals, but they typically avoid any preciousness about their young players. The White Sox don’t have quite that history. Therefore, more than likely, Vaughn will continue his development as a member of the 2022 White Sox, sometimes playing right field, sometimes playing first base, always crushing lefties, and hopefully beginning to find his way to holding down an everyday spot in the lineup – and that much is true no matter what uniform he wears.

What If The White Sox Don’t Trade Craig Kimbrel?

By Mark Polishuk | January 16, 2022 at 9:40pm CDT

While the White Sox exercised their $16MM club option on Craig Kimbrel back in November, Chicago GM’s Rick Hahn hinted that the veteran closer could very well be in a different uniform come Opening Day 2022. “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?” Hahn told reporters, thus setting the stage for weeks of trade rumors before the lockout halted all big league trade activity. The signing of Kendall Graveman prior to the transactions freeze also seemed to indicate that Kimbrel would be moved, as the White Sox now had his replacement readied.

Kimbrel’s salary, age (he turns 34 in May), his lack of success in 2019 and 2020, and his struggles after joining the Sox at the trade deadline are all notable obstacles to any deal. The clearest avenue towards a trade might be some kind of swap of unfavorable contracts, with the White Sox moving Kimbrel for another high-salaried player that could be a fit for second base, right field, or another of Chicago’s positions of need. Or, in a longer shot, there might be a bullpen-needy team out there willing to cover most or all of Kimbrel’s contract, with this team less focused on Kimbrel’s aforementioned red flags and more on the incredible numbers he posted for the Cubs during the first four months of the 2021 campaign.

As much as Kimbrel didn’t pitch well post-trade, his early-season dominance can’t be written off. Kimbrel posted a 0.49 ERA, 46.7% strikeout rate, and a 37.2% strikeout-to-walk rate, looking all the world like he’d bounced back to his early-career star form. This performance was why the Cubs were able to command a high price for Kimbrel at the deadline, resulting in the acquisition of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer from their Windy City rivals.

Declining Kimbrel’s option would’ve meant the White Sox would’ve gotten nothing at all for that big trade outlay. So, as risky as it may seem, exercising Kimbrel’s option and dealing him now might allow the Sox salvage a good return (if obviously not a Madrigal/Heuer return) and get a new player who can help them take that next step forward in the postseason.

But, for all of the Kimbrel trade speculation, there has been far less buzz over the other portion of Hahn’s statement. While it can be assumed that the team’s preference is to work out a trade, what if such an acceptable deal can’t be found, and thus “it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward“?

NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber recently explored the challenges of a Kimbrel trade, and floated the possibility that Kimbrel might wind up returning to the White Sox bullpen. “Yes, it would seem quite strange for Hahn to take the seemingly significant step of talking about a Kimbrel trade in the open only to not make a deal,” Duber notes, and yet it isn’t exactly a worst-case scenario for the Sox to have what might be a potentially loaded bullpen.

With closer Liam Hendriks headlining a group of Kimbrel, Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Jose Ruiz, and (depending on how he is deployed) Garrett Crochet, there’s a lot of talent in that relief corps. This type of depth might also be a necessity given the questions in Chicago’s rotation — Carlos Rodon seems likely to sign elsewhere in free agency, Dallas Keuchel struggled in 2021, and Michael Kopech might not yet be ready to assume a full starters’ workload. If the White Sox bullpen can consistently eat three or more innings per game, however, that significantly reduces what is required of the starters, and helps keep them fresh for the playoffs.

This assumes that Kimbrel will be a solid contributor himself in 2022, rather than the homer-prone reliever who allowed five home runs and posted a 5.09 ERA over 23 innings with the ChiSox. As small as that sample size is, Kimbrel’s 36 2/3 innings with the Cubs last season isn’t much larger, so it remains to be seen exactly which Kimbrel might show up next year.

Breaking down Kimbrel’s Sox tenure, it is worth noting that a lot of his problems were contained to two brutal games — ironically, both against the Cubs. Kimbrel allowed three runs over two-thirds of an inning against the Cubs on August 6, and then three more runs against his former team in an inning of work on August 27. Subtract those two outings from the equation, and Kimbrel suddenly has a much more impressive 2.95 ERA over 21 1/3 frames with the White Sox, and only two home runs allowed.

There might also be a more basic reason why Kimbrel didn’t pitch well with the White Sox. The right-hander tossed only 36 total regular-season innings over the 2019-20 seasons, before jumping back up to 59 2/3 IP in 2021. As Jordan Lazowski of the Sox On 35th blog observed, Kimbrel’s fastball velocity declined by 1.7 mph from June to September, leading to a natural decrease in the quality of his fastball, and some mechanical issues that seemed to develop as Kimbrel tried to adjust and compensate.

In theory, if the 2021 season helped get Kimbrel’s arm re-acclimated to an increased workload, it could bode well for the righty to keep things going for all six months of the next regular season (and, the White Sox hope, into October). This is another instance where a deep Chicago bullpen can come in handy, as if Tony La Russa can pick and choose from several quality options for close late-game situations, Kimbrel’s innings can be managed to some extent.

Keeping Kimbrel’s $16MM on the books gives the White Sox less flexibility for other moves this winter, as the Pale Hose are already projected for a team-record high number of roughly $180MM in 2022. Yet, if Hahn and company can move some other money around to get that second baseman or right fielder, or if ownership green-lights more spending, a Kimbrel deal wouldn’t be so critical to Chicago’s post-lockout plans.

White Sox Re-Sign Kyle Crick, Sign Ryder Jones

By James Hicks | January 14, 2022 at 5:18pm CDT

The White Sox have re-signed reliever Kyle Crick and signed infielder Ryder Jones, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. Crick joined the White Sox Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte last July after being released by the Pirates, while Jones, whose last taste of the majors came in 2018, spent 2021 bouncing around the Diamondbacks’ system. Both signed minor league deals.

Crick, a one-time high-end prospect in the Giants’ system, tossed 24 1/3 innings of 4.44 ERA ball with the Pirates in 2021. But while his top-line numbers hovered around league average and he didn’t allow a single home run, an elevated walk rate (17.8%) and below-average strikeout rate (19.6%) suggest he may have been buoyed by a bit of luck. The righty did put forth a strong showing at Triple-A Charlotte — a 0.87 ERA with three walks and 15 Ks in 10 1/3 innings — in a small sample, but the call back to the bigs never came.

For his career, Crick has posted a 3.51 ERA (4.25 FIP) in 171 2/3 innings across parts of five seasons with the Giants and Pirates. After a strong debut (3.06 ERA in 32 1/3 innings) following a 2017 mid-season call-up with San Francisco, the Texan looked like a bona fide high-leverage option after heading to Pittsburgh (with Bryan Reynolds) for Andrew McCutchen ahead of the 2018 season, in which he logged a 2.39 ERA (3.14 FIP) in 60 1/3 innings across 64 appearances. Control problems began to bite in 2019, however, and elevated walk and home run rates (15.5% and 4.4%, respectively) saw his ERA balloon to 4.96 before a broken finger (sustained in a clubhouse fight with teammate Felipe Vázquez) ended his season in September. Crick did post a 1.59 ERA in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but he was limited to only 5 2/3 innings due to right shoulder problems.

Like Crick, Jones came up in the Giants system. Primarily a third baseman, he reached the bigs in 2017 but posted a meager .173/.244/.273 batting line in 164 plate appearances across 53 games. Including a further 8 trips to the plate logged in 2018, Jones’ career line stands at .185/.250/.316, a far cry from the solid .283/.347/.467 Triple-A line he’s put together in 782 plate appearances across parts of four seasons at that level. After becoming a minor league free agent following the 2019 season, the lefty-swinging Jones signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox before spending 2020 with the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent Constellation Energy League following the cancellation of the minor league season. He signed a minor league deal with Arizona ahead of the 2021 season and compiled a .288/.344/.500 line in 293 trips to the plate across three levels.

Of the two, Crick likely has the easier path to breaking spring training with the big club, where he’ll be given a chance to slot in at the back end of a solid White Sox bullpen. The South Siders’ starting infield is set between Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia, Tim Anderson, and Yoan Moncada, but Jones will hope to benefit from the mid-season departure of Nick Madrigal in the Craig Kimbrel deal; he’ll vie for a bench slot as a backup infielder alongside the more versatile Danny Mendick, though the White Sox are likely to bring in at least a few more bodies to compete for bench roles.

Melky Cabrera Announces Retirement

By Anthony Franco | January 14, 2022 at 1:38pm CDT

Longtime major league outfielder Melky Cabrera announced his retirement this morning (h/t to Héctor Gómez of z 101). Cabrera last appeared in the majors in 2019 but had played winter ball in each of the past two years.

The announcement officially closes the book on Cabrera’s successful big league playing career. He broke into the majors with the Yankees halfway through the 2005 season, getting to the majors a bit before his 21st birthday. The switch-hitter emerged as a regular in the Bronx the following year, playing with the Yankees through their World Series-winning 2009 campaign.

The following offseason, New York traded Cabrera to the Braves. The Dominican Republic native struggled in Atlanta and was released after one year, but he bounced back after hooking on with the Royals the following season. After a solid year in Kansas City, he was traded to the Giants before the 2012 campaign. He’d only spend one year in the Bay Area as well, but that season proved to be the most productive of Cabrera’s career. He hit .346/.390/.516 across 501 plate appearances, earning his only All-Star nod in the process.

Down the stretch, however, Cabrera was suspended after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. That ban carried over into 2013, where he landed with the Blue Jays after signing a two-year deal over the winter. Cabrera struggled in the first season of that deal but bounced back with a very productive 2014 campaign. He proved a capable, high-contact bat for a good chunk of 30s, suiting up with the White Sox, Royals (for a second time), Indians and Pirates.

Cabrera’s run of productivity came to a close in 2019. Despite hitting .280 that year, his overall offensive output was 16 percentage points below the league average (by measure of wRC+) due to a lack of power and a minuscule 4.3% walk rate. Cabrera briefly caught on with the Mets in 2020 Summer Camp but was cut loose before the start of the season.

Altogether, Cabrera had a lengthy, impressive showing in the big leagues. He appeared in fifteen consecutive MLB seasons from 2005-19, donning the uniforms of eight different clubs. Over a bit more than 7,500 plate appearances, Cabrera hit .285/.334/.417, an overall slash line a hair above average by both wRC+ and OPS+. He hit 144 home runs, 383 doubles, drove in 854 runs and stole 101 bases. FanGraphs valued his career around 16 wins above replacement, while Baseball Reference pegged him around 21 wins. Cabrera tallied a bit more than $72MM in earnings, according to B-Ref. MLBTR congratulates the 37-year-old on a very fine run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

By Mark Polishuk | January 1, 2022 at 2:49pm CDT

Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022. With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.

This list is by no means exhaustive. Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact. It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout. While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.

Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt). However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen. It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts. Onto the list…

Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons. In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure. Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic. With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.

Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign. It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).

Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes. Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans. Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.

Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March. The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal. Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.

Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee. With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon. The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season. For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns. There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.

Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023. It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild. However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames. Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.

Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023. Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles. There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal). If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.

Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options. While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015. There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.

Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.” This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021. Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.

Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish. Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations. The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.

Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team. Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known. Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized. The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.

Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023. An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars. Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year. There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim. With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.

Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019. If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year. Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.

Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign. If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining. While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning. One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise. Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.

Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end. New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout. Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.

Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term. That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement. The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job. Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.

Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year. The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season. If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.

White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length. Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series. Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades. Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.

Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records. Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change. It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason. Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.

The Hitch In A Potential Dallas Keuchel Trade

By Darragh McDonald | December 31, 2021 at 10:03pm CDT

Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)

That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.

In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.

With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.

Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.

This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.

Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | December 25, 2021 at 11:00am CDT

With a burgeoning payroll, can the White Sox find a strong replacement for Carlos Rodon and upgrade at second base and/or right field?

Guaranteed Contracts

Yasmani Grandal, C: $36.5MM through 2023
Dallas Keuchel, SP: $19.5MM through 2022. Includes $20MM club option for 2023
Jose Abreu, 1B: $18MM through 2022
Craig Kimbrel, RP: $16MM through 2022
Liam Hendriks, RP: $42MM through 2024 (technically through ’23 but the option and buyout prices are the same)
Lance Lynn, SP: $38MM through 2023. Includes $18MM club option for 2024
Tim Anderson, SS: $10.5MM through 2022. Includes $12.5MM club option for ’23 and $14MM club option for ’24
Yoan Moncada, 3B: $59MM through 2024. Includes $25MM club option for ’25
Kendall Graveman, RP: $24MM through 2024
Eloy Jimenez, LF: $32MM through 2024. Includes $16.5MM club option for ’25 and $18.5MM club option for ’26
Luis Robert, CF: $45MM through 2025. Includes $20MM club options for ’26 and ’27
Leury Garcia, IF: $16.5MM through 2024.
Aaron Bummer, RP: $13MM through 2024. Includes $7.25MM club option for ’25 and $7.5MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Lucas Giolito, SP: $7.9MM
Adam Engel, CF: $2.2MM
Reynaldo Lopez, P: $2.8MM

Option Decisions

Declined $6MM club option on 2B Cesar Hernandez
Exercised $16MM club option on RP Craig Kimbrel

Free Agents

Ryan Tepera, Brian Goodwin, Cesar Hernandez, Billy Hamilton, Evan Marshall

The White Sox won the AL Central this year, marking back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in the club’s storied 121-year history. Prior to 2020, the team hadn’t even put together a winning record since 2012. The White Sox are here to stay as a perennial contender, even if they went quietly to the Astros in the ALDS this year. As you can see in the contracts section above, the team has already locked up core pieces and should have relatively strong continuity for the next several years.

Several significant moves and non-moves took place prior to the December 2nd lockout. The White Sox made a pair of unsurprising option decisions, cutting second baseman Cesar Hernandez loose and retaining reliever Craig Kimbrel. I wonder if the Kimbrel decision represents something of a sunk cost fallacy, with the Sox having surrendered former first rounder Nick Madrigal plus reliever Codi Heuer to acquire Kimbrel from the Cubs at the July deadline. Who the White Sox gave up, of course, should have had no bearing on Kimbrel’s option decision. The team only had 25 innings in which to evaluate Kimbrel, during which his extreme home run tendencies returned.

Since 2019, Kimbrel has been an effective pitcher for only the 36 2/3 innings at the beginning of the ’21 season. But in those 39 games, Kimbrel was utterly dominant, allowing only two earned runs. Even heading into his age-34 season, Kimbrel is undoubtedly one of the top strikeout relievers in the game, ranking third in that metric since 2020. The question is whether home run and walk proclivities will be an issue in 2022, and I don’t think anyone really knows the answer. The White Sox, who appear to be bumping up against their payroll limit, gambled $16MM that Good Kimbrel will show up over the next 60 innings or at least that they can unload him to positive effect.

White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” That’s not a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.

The White Sox struck a pre-lockout deal with one of the top free agent relivers in Kendall Graveman, seemingly only increasing the chances of a Kimbrel trade. Possible matches for Kimbrel could include the Tigers and Royals, but intra-division trades among contenders can be tough. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Phillies make some theoretical sense, but it will not be easy for Hahn to find a team willing to take on a $16MM closer and give up a player of value. Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.

The White Sox also made the curious choice not to issue the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Carlos Rodon. Rodon was a surprise Cy Young contender through mid-July, but wore down thereafter and experienced a velocity dip. Soon after the Rodon decision, Noah Syndergaard, with two innings under his belt from 2020-21, snagged a one-year, $21MM deal from the Angels. Hahn offered little insight into the team’s decision, saying, “We made the assessment based on everything we know, which includes our needs and our other targets, that that wasn’t an offer we were comfortable making at this time.”

The implication is that the White Sox felt that A) there was a real chance of Rodon accepting the QO and B) that would have been a bad thing for the team. On both fronts, the team has more information than we do. We don’t know exactly how Scott Boras played it and if maybe he bluffed his way out of the QO by intimating they might accept. Afterward, of course, Boras acted as if there was never a chance Rodon would accept. Additionally, no one knows Rodon’s health better than the White Sox. Health concerns are one potential justification for not offering the QO to Rodon. If the club thought Rodon is likely to provide even 100 innings of 3.50 ball in 2022, the QO is an easy yes.

There’s also the chance that the White Sox budgeted $20MM+ for a potential frontline starter, and they wanted to keep their options open and attempt to acquire someone they feel is better than Rodon. Case in point Justin Verlander, in whom the Sox “showed strong interest” prior to his re-upping with the Astros, according to Bob Nightengale. The White Sox already have a projected rotation of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, and Michael Kopech. Allowing that they could attempt to dump Keuchel’s salary, there’s generally room for only one addition. Save for perhaps Clayton Kershaw, who’s unlikely to sign in Chicago, free agency doesn’t offer anyone of Rodon’s caliber. The post-lockout trade market, however, could be robust. If Hahn were to come up with, say, Frankie Montas, the Rodon decision would look reasonable.

Second base remains a clear area of need for the White Sox. Nick Madrigal is now across town, and the club declined Cesar Hernandez’s option after he posted a 70 wRC+ for them. The White Sox have Leury Garcia back in the fold as a fallback, but they could consider acquiring Jean Segura, Ketel Marte, Josh Harrison, DJ LeMahieu, Jeff McNeil, or Jed Lowrie. Also consider the summer report that the White Sox were interested in acquiring Trevor Story and playing him at second base back in July. If multiyear offers are not to Story’s liking, he could land in Chicago on a one-year deal and attempt to pull a Marcus Semien. I don’t think a Semien reunion was ever a consideration for the White Sox, but they have seen a few more affordable second base options come off the board in Chris Taylor and Eduardo Escobar.

Since the White Sox non-tendered Avisail Garcia three years ago, they’ve been searching for a solution in right field. In the three years that followed, Ryan Cordell, Nomar Mazara, and Adam Eaton were their innings leaders at the position. Aside from Leury Garcia, the club has solid internal options for ’22 in Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel. Vaughn, the most promising hitter of the bunch, spent most of ’21 filling in at the other outfield corner with Eloy Jimenez out. The club is not in desperation mode here, but they figure to monitor the market. What the White Sox do with right field might depend on the caliber of player they add for the rotation and second base. Available right field-capable players could include Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Wil Myers, Max Kepler, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Jorge Soler, Andrew McCutchen, and Manuel Margot, though not all of those would be upgrades over internal options.

Along with all these permutations, the team’s payroll must be considered. The White Sox’ 2021 Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM was an all-time high, just a hair above where they peaked a decade prior. The team currently has 13 players under contract for 2022 at a total of $152.75MM, plus a projected $12.9MM for their arbitration eligible trio. That brings the total to around $165MM for 15 players, with an MLB-wide expected minimum salary increase on the way. It’s unclear how far owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to go and how much of Kimbrel and perhaps Keuchel’s salary can be cleared. Abreu, Keuchel, and Kimbrel are off the books after ’22, though the club figures to attempt to extend Abreu. Plus, the club has scheduled or expected raises to Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, Robert, Jimenez, and Bummer in ’23.

Rodon was the top White Sox pitcher by WAR in 2021 in just 132 2/3 innings, so replacing his production will not be easy. Though the team’s four division-mates didn’t put up much of a fight in ’21, the Tigers have already made major additions. All five clubs now fancy themselves contenders. While the White Sox are still the AL Central favorite currently, there’s work to be done once the lockout ends.

Roland Hemond Passes Away

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2021 at 5:01pm CDT

Longtime major league executive Roland Hemond passed away last night at age 92, the league announced. Hemond served as a big league general manager for more than two decades between 1970 and 1995, leading the White Sox’s and Orioles’ baseball operations departments over that time.

“Roland Hemond was one of the most respected executives that our game has ever known,” Commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. “He served the Chicago White Sox and the Baltimore Orioles as general manager, was a staple of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ front office throughout their history, and also worked for the Boston and Milwaukee Braves, the California Angels, the Commissioner’s Office and USA Baseball during his exemplary career. Roland was a pivotal figure in the formation and growth of the Arizona Fall League. Most importantly, he mentored countless people in our sport and found ways to make our game stronger. Roland Hemond was a great gentleman whose contributions to our National Pastime will never be forgotten.”

In addition to his time in Chicago and Baltimore, Hemond worked in various scouting and advisory capacities throughout his career. He began his front office time with the Braves in 1951, collecting a World Series ring five years later for his role as the team’s assistant scouting director. He held that role in Milwaukee (where the Braves played from 1953-66) through 1960, then spent the next decade as the Angels’ scouting director.

By 1970, Hemond was leading the charge with the White Sox, a stint that partially overlapped with Tony La Russa’s first run as Chicago manager. His clubs won one division title over that stretch, a 1983 season that saw Chicago win 99 games but drop a four-game AL Championship Series against the Orioles. In 1986, Hemond made the jump to the commissioner’s office, a position he held for a bit more than a year before taking over baseball ops in Baltimore.

Hemond ran the O’s from 1988-95. Baltimore didn’t make a postseason appearance during Hemond’s tenure, but a few players whom his front office group had acquired (i.e. Rafael Palmeiro, Brady Anderson and Mike Mussina) played key roles on the ’96 squad that went to the ALCS. Hemond spent 1996-2000 as an executive with the D-Backs, then spent the better part of the next two decades in advisory capacities with the White Sox and Arizona before retiring in 2017.

In 2011, the Baseball Hall of Fame presented Hemond with the Buck O’Neil Lifetime Achievement Award. He’s one of five all time honorees (joining O’Neil himself, Joe Garagiola, Rachel Robinson and David Montgomery). Hemond was twice named the league’s Executive of the Year, winning the award in 1972 and 1989. Unsurprisingly, given his decades of experience in high-level front office positions, Hemond had personal ties to many key front office execs and coaches who continue to hold influence today — including La Russa and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who got his start in professional baseball with the White Sox during Hemond’s tenure as Chicago GM.

MLBTR joins countless others around the game in expressing our condolences to Hemond’s family, friends and loved ones.

AL Central Notes: Moncada, Gausman, Tigers, Arias, Guardians

By Mark Polishuk | December 11, 2021 at 5:01pm CDT

Second base stands out as the most glaring area of need in the White Sox lineup, yet the idea of moving Yoan Moncada back to the keystone doesn’t seem too likely, NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber opines. Moncada began his career with regular second base duty in 2017-18, yet has played exclusively as a third baseman over the last three seasons, posting very solid defensive numbers along the way. Beyond just the improved glovework, the position change also seemed to spark Moncada towards better numbers at the plate. As White Sox GM Rick Hahn told Duber and other reporters last month, Moncada is “a pretty darn good third baseman. He’s comfortable there….I don’t know if you want to upset the apple cart of something that’s working.”

That said, Hahn also twice said “never say never” about the possibility of a Moncada position change. The logic would be that the White Sox could be able to address a third base vacancy more easily than their second base vacancy, as many of the winter’s top available second basemen are already off the market. Moncada also wouldn’t have to stay at second base forever, if the Sox acquired a third baseman on a relatively short-term deal. Hypothetically, Kyle Seager could be open to a one-year deal to join a contender, or a trade candidate like the Athletics’ Matt Chapman is under team control only through 2023.

White Sox Sign Brandon Finnegan To Minor League Deal

By TC Zencka | December 11, 2021 at 8:24am CDT

The White Sox have signed lefty Brandon Finnegan to a minor league contract.

Chicago will look to unlock Finnegan, who hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018. And yet, Finnegan is still just 28 years old. Remember, he debuted with the Royals at the tender age of 21, working out of the bullpen for the Royals as they won the pennant in 2014. He made seven appearances out of the pen during that playoff run.

Finnegan was shipped off the Cincinnati as part of the package for Johnny Cueto the next season, however. He was converted into a full-time starter for the 2016 season, making 31 starts and tossing 172 innings with a 3.98 ERA/5.19 FIP, good for 2.1 rWAR. He made just nine total starts over the next two years, however, and hasn’t returned to the Majors since. From 2014 to 2018, he posted an overall 4.11 ERA/5.12 FIP over 260 2/3 innings with the Royals and Reds.

This past season, Finnegan converted back into a reliever, spending the entire season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville. Finnegan logged 55 1/3 innings with a 5.53 ERA, never getting a call-up to return to Cincy.

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